CHAPTER 6

ARRIVAL PATTERNS AND SERVICE TIMES

 Most systems of interest in a simulation study contain processes in which there is a demand for
service that causes congestion.
 The combination of all entities in the system those being served and those waiting for service will
be called a queue.
 Congestion may be described in terms of three main characteristics:
1. The arrival pattern:- describes the statistical properties of arrivals.
2. The service process:- describes how entities are served.
3. The queueing discipline:- describes how the next entity to be served is selected.
 The service process can be described by three factors:
o Service time: required time to serve an entity.
o Service capacity: the number of entities can be served simultaneously.
o Service availability: it is available for 24 hours.
Arrival pattern
 It is expressed in terms of inter arrival time.
 Inter arrival time:- interval between two successive arrival events.
 It can be constant or random.
1
 Two or more arrivals may be simultaneous λ= where λ = arrival rate
Ta
Ta = interval time
Some commonly used arrival patterns are:
1. Poisson arrival pattern
2. Exponential arrival pattern
3. Erlang arrival pattern
4. Hyper exponential arrival pattern

1. Poisson arrival pattern

 Arrival of an entity can occur any time.
 The time of the next arrival is independent of the previous arrival.
 The distribution of inter arrival time is exponential.
 PDF of inter arrival time = f(t) = λ e− λt , t≥ 0
 CDF of inter arrival time is F(t) = 1- e− λt
F(t≤ A0) = 1- e− λ A 0
( λt )n e− λt
The capability of n arrivals during period of time ‘t’ is p(n) = , n≥0
n!
Example:exam
Assume that the jobs are arriving completely random fashion to a service center if the mean number
of jobs arrives per minute is 0.103 what is the probability for arriving:
a. 0 jobs for a period of 20 minutes
b. 3 jobs for a period of 20 minutes
c. Probability of more than 3 jobs arrival for 10 minutes
Solution:
Given: λ=¿ 0.103 / min
t = 20 min and 10 min

Required: p(0), p(3), p(n>3)

 a) p(0) = ?
( λt )n e− λt ( λt )0 e−0.103∗20
p(n) =  p(0)= = 0.12745
n! 0!
b) p(3) = ?
( λt )n e− λt ( 0.103∗20 )3 e−0.103∗20
p(n) =  p(3)= = 0.186
n! 3!
c) p(n>3) = ?
p(n>3) = 1- p(n ≤3)
= 1- (1- e− λt ) = e− λt = e−0.103∗10 = 0.357

2. Exponential arrival pattern

PDF  f(t) = λ (e−λt )

CDF  F(t) = p(x≤ t) = 1- e− λt ; does not exceed t

A0(t) = p(x>t) = e− λt ; exceed t

Example:

Data packet arrives at a server randomly every 2 minutes on the average. Determine the probability
that the inter arrival time of packet

a) Does not exceed 1 minute

b) Exceed 3 minutes

Solution:

Given: Ta= 2 minutes

λ=?

λ = 1/Ta = ½ = 0.5 /min

a) F (x≤ 1min) = ? b) A0(3) = ?

F (x≤ t) = 1- e− λt A0(t) = p(x>t) = e− λt
F (x≤ 1min) = 1- e−0.5∗1 A0(3) = p(x>3) = e−0.5∗3
= 1-e−0.5 = 0.223
= 0.393
3. ERLANG arrival pattern
 is a continuous distribution
 has a positive value for all real numbers greater than zero and is given by two parameters.
o k  which is a non-negative integer and
o λ which is a non-negative real number

If k=1, then, ERLANG distribution = exponential arrival pattern.

f(t) = (kλ)k ¿]tk-1

k −1
− λkt ( λkt) n
F(t) = p(x≤t) = 1- e [∑ ]
n=0 n !
 k −1
( λkt) n
A0(t) = p(x¿t) = e− λkt [∑ ] where k = number of stages / job k≥ 0
n=0 n !

e.g. data packets arrived at a server randomly every 2 minutes in the average. Assume that a packet
has 10 bytes of data. Determine the probability that inter arrival time packet

a. does not exceed 3 minutes

b. exceed 1 minute

Solution:

Ta= 2 min

k= 10 bytes

λ=¿1/Ta = ½ min = 0.5 / min

k −1
− λkt ( λkt) n
a. F(3) = p(x≤ 3) = 1- e [∑ ]
n=0 n !
9
( 0.5∗10∗3) n
= 1- e−0.5∗10∗3 [∑ ]
n=0 n!
15 2 15 3 15 4 15 9
= 1- e−15 (1+15+ + + +…+ )
2 3! 4 ! 9!
b. A0(1) = ?
k −1
( λkt) n
A0(1) = p(x>1) = e− λkt [∑ ]
n=0 n !

9
( 0.5∗10∗1) n
=e −0.5∗10∗1
[∑ ]
n=0 n!

52 5 3 5 4 59
= e−5 (1+5+ + + + …+ )
2 3! 4! 9!

4. Hyper exponential arrival pattern

The distribution can be given simple physical interaction as shown below:

T Queue
1-s 2s
T Stages
2(1−s)
Suppose there are two parallel stages of processing. The stages will be processed with a
T T T T
mean of and probability of being is s and is 1-s.
2s 2(1−s) 2s 2(1−s)

F(t) = p(x≤t) = 1- A0(t)

The arrival distribution is given as Note, when s =1/2

A0(t) = p(x>t)= se−2 sλt + ¿

 1 −2 ( 1 ) λt 1 − λt 1 − λt
A0(t) = 2 +¿ = e + e
2e 2 2

= e− λt  exponential distribution.
 Queuing Theory
There is an input and output process example

Situation Input process (arrival process) Output process (service process)

Bank system Arrival of customers Service the customers
Hospital Arrival of patient Serve the patient
Telephone Calls Exchange

The input process (arrival process)

 The input process usually called arrival process

 One or more than one arrival can occur at a given instant
 Models in which arrivals are drawn from a small population are called finite source model.
 There can be situations like: - Arrive but fails to enter the line - Be in the line but not served

The output process (service process)

The output process usually called service process.

Queuing Discipline

 Describes the method used to determine the order in which customers are served. It can be:
1. FIFO (First in first out):- it is used when the arriving entities are assembled in the time order in
which they arrive.
2. LIFO (Last in First out):- service is offered next to the entity that arrives most recently.
3. Random:- service offered next to the random entity in the queue have an equal opportunity of being
selected for service.

The KENDLA’s Notation (v/w/x/y/z)

 It is the standard notation used to describe many queuing system.
 Each queuing system is described by 5 characters (v/w/x/y/z)
v – arrival pattern w – service pattern
x - number of available server y – system capacity (default is ∞ )
z – server discipline (default is FIFO)
Queueing characteristics symbol meanings
Interarrival /service time
D – Deterministic M – Exponential Distribution
E – Erlang type G – Any other distribution

Example 1

M/M/1 stands for exam

- Arrival pattern  exponential distribution - Service pattern  exponential distribution

- Number of available server  1 - System capacity  ∞
- Server discipline  FIFO

Example 2: Write the KANDLA’s notation for the following:

- Arrival pattern  exponential distribution - Service pattern  Deterministic

- Number of available server  1 - System capacity  ∞
- Server discipline  LIFO

Solution: M/D/1/∞ /LIFO system.

 Steady state measure of performance
Ls= expected number of customers in the system (system length)

Lq= expected number of customers in the queue (queue length)

Ws= expected waiting time in the system.

Wq= expected waiting time in the queue.

ρ= server utilization

Exm Measure of queue

Ta= inter arrival time 1

μ= = rate of service
Ts
Ts= interval service time
u= Traffic intensity
1
λ= = rate of arrival
Ta ρ= server utilization

Formula

λ 1 ρ
ρ= Wq= Ws - =
μ μ μ (1−ρ)

ρ ρ2
Ls = Lq= λWq =
1−ρ 1−ρ

Ls 1 ρ = Ls – Lq
Ws= =
λ μ−λ
Stability= the system is stable if ρ<1.

Exm Example: In a network gateway measurement shows that the packet arrive at mean rate of 125
pps (process per second) and the gateway takes 2 msec to forward them. If the arrival and the
departure follow exponential distribution and only one server used in the gateway analyze the
gateway.

Solution:

λ= 125 pps 1
Wq= Ws - = 2.64 msec – 2 msec = 0.64 msec
μ
Ts = 2 msec
ρ 0.25
1 1 Or Wq = = = 0.66 msec
μ= = = 500 pps μ (1−ρ) 500(1−0.25)
Ts 2msec
Lq = λWq = 125 pps * 0.64 msec = 0.0833 packet
Model = M/M/1
ρ = Ls – Lq = 0.33 – 0.0833 = 0.2467
λ 125
ρ= = = 0.25
μ 500 The system is stable becauseρ<1.

ρ 0.25 0.25
Ls = = = = 0.33 packet
1−ρ 1−0.25 0.75

Ls 0.33
Ws= = = 2.64 msec
λ 125 pps