PROBABILITY TREES

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2. [6 marks]

13 Jim has a biased coin.

The probability that Jim will throw Heads on any throw is p.
Jim throws the coin twice.
(a) Complete the probability tree diagram.
Give your probabilities in terms of p.

First throw Second throw

Heads
....................

Heads
p
....................

Tails

Heads
....................

....................

Tails

....................

Tails
(2)
(b) Find an expression, in terms of p, for the probability that Jim will throw two Heads.

..............................................................

(1)
Given that p = 0.8,
(c) work out the probability that Jim will throw exactly one Head.

..............................................................

(3)

(Total for Question 13 is 6 marks)

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 3. Leave [8 marks]
blank
13. A bag contains 1 red disc, 2 blue discs and 3 green discs.

Xanthe chooses a disc at random from the bag. She notes its colour and replaces it.
Then Xanthe chooses another disc at random from the bag and notes its colour.

(a) Complete the probability tree diagram showing all the probabilities.

First disc Second disc

R

1
6

(3)

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4. [5 marks]

14 Linford and Alan race against each other in a competition.

If one of them wins a race, he wins the competition.

DO NOT WRITE IN THIS AREA

If the race is a draw, they run another race.
They run a maximum of three races.
Each time they race, the probability that Linford wins is 0.35
Each time they race, the probability that there is a draw is 0.05
(a) Complete the probability tree diagram.

race 1 race 2 race 3

Linford Linford Linford
0.35 ................. .................
wins wins wins

0.05 ................. .................

draw draw draw
................. ................. .................

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Alan Alan Alan
wins wins wins

(2)
(b) Calculate the probability that Linford wins the competition.

DO NOT WRITE IN THIS AREA

......................................................

(3)

(Total for Question 14 is 5 marks)

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Colour of Colour of
first bead second bead

Red
..........

..........
Red White

4
..........
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Red
..........

.......... ..........
White White

..........
Blue

Red
.......... ..........

..........
Blue White

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6. [7 marks]

14 Peter wants to pass his driving test.

The probability that he passes at his first attempt is 0.7
When Peter passes his driving test, he does not take it again.
If he fails, the probability that he passes at the next attempt is 0.8
(a) Complete the probability tree diagram for Peter’s first two attempts.

First attempt Second attempt

Pass
0.7

...........

Fail
(2)

(b) Calculate the probability that Peter needs exactly two attempts to pass his driving
test.

..........................................

(2)

(c) Calculate the probability that Peter passes his driving test at his third or fourth
attempt.

..........................................

(3)

(Total for Question 14 is 7 marks)

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 7. [6 marks]

15 There are 6 milk chocolates and 4 plain chocolates in a box.

Rob takes at random a chocolate from the box and eats it.
Then Alison takes at random a chocolate from the box and eats it.
(a) Complete the probability tree diagram.

Rob Alison
milk chocolate
....................

milk chocolate
....................

....................

plain chocolate

milk chocolate
....................

....................

plain chocolate

....................

plain chocolate
(3)
(b) Work out the probability that there are now exactly 3 plain chocolates in the box.

......................................................

(3)

(Total for Question 15 is 6 marks)

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 8. [7 marks]

15 Maria has two bags.

Bag A Bag B

White
5
7

(2)
(b) Work out the probability that both counters will be white.

............................

(2)
(c) Work out the probability that exactly one of the counters will be white.

............................

(3)

(Total for Question 15 is 7 marks)

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 9. [7 marks]

16 In a bag there is a total of 20 coins.

10 coins are 20 cent coins

DO NOT WRITE IN THIS AREA

6 coins are 10 cent coins
4 coins are 5 cent coins

Emma takes at random two of the coins from the bag.

(a) Complete the probability tree diagram.
(2)

First coin Second coin

.............. 20 cent coin

..............
20 cent coin 10 cent coin

..............

10

DO NOT WRITE IN THIS AREA

5 cent coin
20

..............
20 cent coin

.............. ..............
10 cent coin 10 cent coin

..............

5 cent coin
..............

.............. 20 cent coin DO NOT WRITE IN THIS AREA

..............

5 cent coin 10 cent coin

..............

5 cent coin

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 10. [5 marks]

17 Parveen travels to school either by bicycle or by bus.

The probability that, on any day, she will travel by bicycle is 0.7
When she travels by bicycle, the probability that she will be late for school is 0.2
When she travels by bus, the probability that she will be late for school is 0.1
(a) Calculate the probability that, on a randomly chosen day, Parveen will travel by bus
and be late for school.

...........................................

(2)
(b) Calculate the probability that, on a randomly chosen day, Parveen will not be late for
school.

...........................................

(3)

(Total for Question 17 is 5 marks)

Do NOT write in this space.

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11. [6 marks]

17 Hugo competes in the high jump at a school athletics competition.

He has up to 3 attempts to clear the bar at each height.
When he clears the bar, he does not have another attempt at that height.
When the bar is set at a height of 1.60 metres, the probability that Hugo will clear the bar
on any attempt is 0.4
The probability tree diagram shows the possible outcomes of Hugo’s attempts at
1.60 metres.

First attempt Second attempt Third attempt

Clear
0.4
Clear
0.4
Not
............ Clear
clear ............

Not
............
clear
Not
............
clear

(a) Complete the probability tree diagram to show the four missing probabilities.
(1)
(b) Work out the probability that Hugo does not clear the bar on his first two attempts
and then does clear the bar on his third attempt at 1.60 metres.

..............................................................

(2)

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12. [6 marks]

18 Boris and Nigel play games of chess against each other in a match.
In each game, Boris wins or Nigel wins or the game is a draw.
When a player wins a game, he wins the match.
When a game is a draw, the players play another game against each other.
Boris and Nigel play a maximum of 3 games.

1
The probability that Boris wins a game is
3
1
The probability that a game is a draw is
2

(a) Complete the probability tree diagram.

First game Second game Third game

Boris wins Boris wins Boris wins

.............. ..............

1
3
1
2 Draw .............. Draw .............. Draw

.............. .............. ..............

Nigel wins Nigel wins Nigel wins

(3)
(b) Calculate the probability that Boris wins the match.

......................................................

(3)

(Total for Question 18 is 6 marks)

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 13. [6 marks]

18 Bill and Jo play some games of table tennis.

The probability that Bill wins the first game is 0.7
When Bill wins a game, the probability that he wins the next game is 0.8
When Jo wins a game, the probability that she wins the next game is 0.5
The first person to win two games wins the match.
(a) Complete the probability tree diagram.

First game Second game Third game

Bill
....................... wins Bill
Bill
.......................
wins
0.7
.......................
wins Jo
Jo
wins
.......................
.......................
wins

Bill
.......................
wins
Bill
.......................
wins Jo
.......................
Jo wins
.......................
wins Jo
wins
.......................

(3)
(b) Calculate the probability that Bill wins the match.

..............................................................

(3)

(Total for Question 18 is 6 marks)

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Question 14:
For this question, give all your answers as fractions.

The letters of the word SUMMER are printed on 6 cards.

(a) A card is chosen at random. Write down the probability that it has the letter R printed on it.

(b) Find the probability that the card chosen at random does not have the letter M printed on it.

(c) Find the probability that the letter printed on the card chosen at random has no lines of
symmetry.

(d) Chris chooses a card at random, replaces it, then chooses a card again. Calculate the
probability that only one of the cards she chooses has the letter M printed on it.

(e) Graham chooses a card at random and does not replace it. He continues until he chooses a
card with the letter M printed on it. Find the probability that this happens when he chooses the
3rd card.

Question 15:
A box contains only green and yellow crayons.

Luka takes one crayon at random from the box. The probability that she takes a green crayon
is 1\6.
Luka returns the crayon to the bag and adds four more green crayons to the box. The probability
that she takes one green crayon at random is now 1\4.

How many crayons of each color were originally in the box?

Question 16:
Neal is attending a Scout jamboree in Japan. He has both boots and trainers to wear. He also has
the choice of wearing a cap or not.

The probability Neal wears boots is 0.4. If he wears boots, the probability that he wears a cap is
0.7.

If Neal wears trainers, the probability that he wears a cap is 0.25.

The following tree diagram shows the probabilities for Neal's clothing options at the jamboree.

(a) Find the value of A.

(b) Find the value of B.

(c) Find the value of C.

(d) Calculate the probability that Neal wears trainers and no cap.

(e) Calculate the probability that Neal wears no cap.

(f) Calculate the probability that Neal wears trainers given that he is not wearing a cap.

(g) Calculate the probability that Neal wears boots on the first two days of the jamboree.

(h) Calculate the probability that Neal wears boots on one of the first two days, and trainers on
the other.
 Question 17:
Donna is in a class of 25 students, 5 of whom have a pet dog.

There are 2200 students in the school.

(a) Use this information to estimate how many students in the school have pet dogs.

(b) Luka is at a different school.

She is in a class of 28 students, 7 of whom have pet dogs.

Luka and Donna have an idea. They think "In our two classes there are 53 students, 12 of whom
have a pet dog. We can use this bigger sample to improve the estimate for Donna's school."

What assumption have they made?

(c) Use this idea to estimate how many students in Donna's school have pet dogs.

Question 18:
A bag contains balls that are red, blue, green or yellow.

 The number of red balls is x−3.

 The number of blue balls is 2x.
 The number of green balls is 7.
 The number of yellow balls is 5x.

A counter is chosen at random. The probability it is green is 752

Work out the probability it is red?

Question 19:
There are x left shoes and 7 right shoes in a dark cupboard.

Harper takes at random two shoes from the cupboard.

The probability that Harper takes one left shoe and one right shoe is 713
(a) Show that x2−13x+42=0

(b) Find the probability that Harper takes two right shoes.

Question 20:
Jane and David play two games of golf. The probability that Jane wins the first game is 5\6. If
Jane wins the first game, the probability that she wins the second game is 6\7.
If Jane loses the first game, the probability that she wins the second game is 3\4.

(a) Copy and complete the following tree diagram.

(b) Find the probability that Jane wins the first game and David wins the second game.

(c) Find the probability that David wins at least one game.

(d) Given that David wins at least one game, find the probability that he wins both games.