Domino'S Pizza: Third-Party Delivery Data Trackers Lack Reason To Hail To The Victors

Restaurants
DOMINO'S PIZZA
EQUITY RESEARCH TARGET UPDATE
This report is intended for dbaran@gmail.com. Unauthorized redistribution of this report is prohibited.
September 3, 2019
Price: $226.84 (09/2/2019) THIRD-PARTY DELIVERY DATA TRACKERS LACK

Price Target: $260.00 (Prior $290.00) REASON TO HAIL TO THE VICTORS
OUTPERFORM (1)
Andrew M. Charles, CFA THE COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1332 We lower 2H19 domestic comps below-consensus based on new proprietary user base,
andrew.charles@cowen.com
promotional and advertising trackers of third-party delivery providers. At 9/6 investor
Thomas Champion meeting, we are looking for galvanizing near term sales tactics to combat intensified third-
646 562 1365 party competition. Further, we support the lowering of long term 3%-6% global comp
thomas.champion@cowen.com
guidance at the meeting to help remove shares' overhang.
Brian Vieten, CFA
646 562 1341 Data Trackers Suggest Intensified Third-Party Delivery Competition Continues in 3Q QTD
brian.vieten@cowen.com
DPZ hit a tipping point in 2Q with comp deterioration attributed to competitive
Andrew Crespo
infringement from third-party delivery providers' aggressive discounting and marketing
646 562 1361
andrew.crespo@cowen.com
efforts. This prompts us to initiate data trackers to monitor delivery providers' user growth,
as well as advertising and promotional cadence. Proprietary survey data suggests the
Key Data number of third-party platforms' monthly active users outpaces Domino's, and is growing at
Symbol NYSE: DPZ a faster clip. Data from iSpotTV suggests a similar level of collective national TV advertising
52-Week Range: $302.05 - $220.90 across third-party providers in 3Q QTD as 2Q, while Facebook data suggests a similar level
Market Cap (MM): $9,353.3 of promotional activity from DoorDash, with widening reach. We see no reason to believe
Net Debt (MM): $3,497.4 the level of discounting and advertising that weighed on DPZ in 2Q and so far in 3Q will
Cash/Share: $0.62 wane for the foreseeable future, as unsubstantiated media reports suggest Postmates
Dil. Shares Out (MM): 41.2 and Doordash could IPO in the next year. This leads us to fear aggressive promotions will
Enterprise Value (MM): $12,914.4 continue to aide sales preceding the time of potential IPO’s.
ROIC: NA
September 6th Open House Preview: Near Term Sales Drivers In Need
ROE (LTM): NA
BV/Share: $(70.44) DPZ has not provided any indication if the 9/6 investor open house at Ann Arbor HQ will be
Dividend: $2.60 a holistic business review or a simple check-in, though we note the event will be webcast.
Yield: 1.15% From a stock perspective, we believe the meeting provides the opportunity to recast the
near-to-medium term narrative. This can be achieved by sharing new, nearer term tactics
FY (Dec) 2018A 2019E 2020E
to help reaccelerate traffic that will not degrade franchisee profitability given development
EPS
commitments.
Q1 $2.00 $2.20A $2.42 The two clearest opportunities we see are menu innovation and loyalty enhancements:
Prior Q1 - - $2.38
■ Domino's is due for menu innovation following 3 years since the last new menu item
Q2 $1.84 $2.19A $2.34
launched. We would be most encouraged to see a testing of plant-based pizza toppings
Prior Q2 - - $2.30
such as beef/pepperoni/sausage that are soon to launch in Australia and are not utilized
Q3 $1.95 $2.12 $2.47 by domestic national pizza delivery competitors. We would expect upcoming innovation
Prior Q3 - $2.13 $2.44 to feature a similar margin profile as existing offerings that allows Domino's to promote
Q4 $2.62 $3.02 $3.50 new items as part of the $5.99 Mix & Match platform.
Prior Q4 - $3.09 -
Year $8.42 $9.52 $10.73 ■ We would also like to see more frequent enhancements to the Piece of the Pie loyalty
Prior program, such as the Points for Pies promotion in 1Q19. 1Q's promotion helped
- $9.61 $10.62
Year contribute a short term jolt to comps while also stimulating app downloads and loyalty
P/E 26.9x 23.8x 21.1x program sign-up's. DPZ's loyalty efforts are critical given third-party delivery providers
Consensus EPS $8.42 $9.53 $10.88 have collectively launched and tweaked monthly membership/subscription plans in
Consensus source: Thomson Reuters recent months that waive delivery fees for select restaurants, a strategy DPZ can not
replicate in both a compelling and economical manner.
Revenue (MM)
Year $3,432.9 $3,660.5 $3,967.4 We believe value initiatives will face challenges in the near term from cheese prices that
Prior are running at elevated levels experienced only twice in the last 4.5 years, though we
- $3,679.6 $3,987.1
Year note Domino's ran a one-week online promotion featuring 50% off all pizzas at menu price
EV/S 3.8x 3.5x 3.3x 8/26-9/1 that was not run in the comparable 2018 period.
Please see pages 30 to 34 of this report for important disclosures. COWEN.COM

COWEN Domino's Pizza
EQUITY RESEARCH September 3, 2019
AT A GLANCE
Our Investment Thesis Forthcoming Catalysts
Domino's is seeing competitive infringement from third-party delivery that seems likely Investor Open House at HQ, Sept 6th
to persist for the foreseeable future, leaving us to lack conviction in near same store sales
3Q EPS, Oct 8 BMO
upside. We like Domino's long term positioning as the market share leader and best-in-class
pizza delivery operator, with the right long term playbook focused on value, operational
enhancements and technological prowess, though in need of nearer term traffic drivers. We
believe the company would be well served to lower long term targets for 3%-6% same store
sales to remove shares' overhang and provide more realistic targets. This would still allow
DPZ to outpace peers' long term system sales algorithms, while shares currently trade at a
discount given the absence of near term momentum seen elsewhere.
Base Case Assumptions Upside Scenario Downside Scenario
■ DPZ delivers 4% domestic comps in ■ DPZ trends in the upper half of the long ■ DPZ falls short of the low end of the
2020-21E, in-line with consensus. term 3-6% domestic comps range in long term 3-6% domestic comps range in
■ $260 price target, in-line with YUM and 2020-21 2019-21E.
MCD, below the historical 23-32% and ■ EV/EBITDA valuation has peaked at a ■ Shares remain in the penalty box and
implies ~18.5x 2020E EV/EBITDA. 50% premium to YUM and MCD, implying trade in-line with WEN FCF yield of 5.0%
~$430 implying ~$210
Price Performance Company Description
$320 Domino's is the world's largest pizza restaurant by sales, operating across 85+ global
markets. The company operates in 3 segments: Domestic (52% of 2019E gross profits),
300 International (24%), and Supply Chain (24%). DPZ has a history of investing in data analytics,
distribution capabilities, and technology to fuel top-line growth, resulting in the best ROIC
280 track record in quick-service. The company's 65%+ digital ordering sales mix is among
the highest in the restaurant industry, with ambitions to reach nearly 100% through the
260 implementation of A.I. ordering.
240
220 Analyst Top Picks
200 Ticker Price (09/2/2019) Price Target Rating

Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Wingstop WING $100.17 $104.00 Outperform
Restaurant Brands QSR $78.45 $85.00 Outperform
Source: Bloomberg International
The Wendy's Company WEN $22.00 $22.00 Outperform
.
2 COWEN.COM
We Find it Healthy for DPZ to Clear the Air and Cut Long Term Comp Guidance
Following top-line challenges, Domino's has been on the defense around long term 3%-6%
annual same store sales guidance, both domestically and internationally. The high end of
guidance seems like a stretch amid same store sales headwinds from Domino’s fortressing
approach to development and competitive pressure from third-party delivery, neither of
which seem to be abating in the near to medium term. We’d like to see the company rip
the band-aid and cut same store sales guidance at the September 6th meeting. We argue a
cut to guidance, which could admittedly sting in the near term, would make the stock more
approachable longer term as the overhang of a guidance cut would be removed, and allow
DPZ to better execute against stated targets. Indeed, we point to SBUX shares that are
up 49% since the December 2018 investor meeting when the company revised long term
guidance. We could envision DPZ lowering global same store sales guidance to as low as
2%-4%, which would still lead to a superior long term top-line growth profile vs. QSR and
YUM despite DPZ trading at a 9% and 10% discount on 2020E levered FCF yield and EV/
EBITDA, respectively.
Updating Our 2019-21E EPS, With Lower Quality Inputs

Following a deeper scrub of our model, we are updating our 2019-21E EPS from $9.61,
$10.62 and $12.06 to $9.52, $10.73 and $12.51, versus consensus of $9.48, $10.84 and
$12.50. Importantly, we note our updated forecasts reflect a lower quality stream of
earnings from lower revenue offset by a greater reduction of G&A. Indeed, we lower 2H19
U.S. same store sales from 3% to 2.25% relative to 3.25% Consensus Metrix, due to third-
party infringement suggested by our tracker in the 3Q QTD period. We do not like the signal
sent by running a second week of the 50%-off online order promotion in 3Q19 that was
not run a second time in 3Q18, but are optimistic in a potential near term enhancement in
strategy to be shared at the upcoming investor meeting.
We continue to model U.S. same store sales of 4% in 2020-21, in-line with Consensus
Metrix, though off a lower base of 2019 revenue. We note our 2020E same store sales
implies on average 120 bps of deceleration from 2H19 levels on a two-year basis. Our
lower domestic revenue estimate is partially offset by higher 2019-21E int’l openings as
we are more encouraged by 1H19 performance, though we still trail Consensus Metrix on
international development given historically lumpy performance amid 2.5 years of same
store sales at or below the low end of the 3%-6% long term guidance range that does not
argue for sustainably strong international development.
We offset our lower top-line estimates with lower 2020-21E G&A as we expect a greater
focus on G&A management amid sluggish domestic sales, adding $0.10 and $0.40,
respectively. Our 2020-21E G&A reflects 10 bps of annual leverage as a percent of system
sales, in excess of 1, 4 and 4 bps of leverage on average per year over the last 3, 5 and 7
years, respectively. We note DPZ’s 2019 guidance implies 2.7% G&A as a percent of system
sales. This compares to the quick-service average of 2.2%, suggesting a nearly 20% G&A
reduction opportunity longer term to align with peers. Given DPZ invests to remain cutting
edge in technology, we do not expect the gap to fully close, but rather want to acknowledge
the G&A gap vs peers.
Lowering Price Target from $290 to $260, Representing 18.5x 2020E EV/EBITDA
We previously valued DPZ based on the low-end of DPZ's historic FY 1 EV/EBITDA premium
of 6%-50% to blended MCD and YUM. Following DPZ's 2Q19 top-line miss that included
an admission of competitive intrusion from third-party delivery providers in earnest for
the first time, DPZ shares have traded off nearly 20%, placing DPZ at a 9% discounted
valuation to MCD and YUM. We now view an in-line valuation multiple with peers as more
appropriate, with DPZ’s superior system sales growth profile in 2019-21E (see Figure
22) offset by a negative sales revision embedded in our 2H19 estimates compared to
McDonalds U.S. and Taco Bell U.S. that we believe set-up for positive sales revisions. This
equates to a $260 price target from $290 previously, or 18.5x 2020E EV/EBITDA, from
20.4x previously.
COWEN.COM 3
A Data Driven Look at Domino’s Third-Party Competitive Set
Domino’s acknowledged a tipping point in 2Q19, with same store sales deterioration
attributed to third-party delivery providers aggressively advertising and discounting.
Indeed, Domino’s 3% same store sales growth in 2Q deteriorated 230 bps on a two-year
from 1Q, and missed 4.6% Consensus Metrix. 2Q’s comp growth was low quality, driven
entirely by ticket, specifically menu pricing and higher delivery fees, with flat traffic. The
sales shortfall occurred during a generally favorable top-line environment for limited
service restaurants that included mostly in-line to better than expected same store sales,
as well as underlying sales improvement from 1Q to 2Q. We do not believe Domino’s
check-driven 2Q same store sales composition bodes favorably for 2H19 when
considering the aggressive promotional activity from third-party providers in 2Q that
has persisted in 3Q QTD.
Management acknowledged 2Q results underperformed expectations, and believes the
promotional third-party delivery competitive dynamic is poised to persist for the
foreseeable future. DPZ’s 2Q performance prompts us to initiate data trackers to help
better measure the cadence of third-party delivery providers’ advertising as well as
promotional intensity via iSpot.tv and Facebook, respectively. Further, we are also
looking to better measure third-party providers’ user growth from proprietary data
derived from Dectiva.
We Note a Greater Number of Third-Party Delivery Monthly Average Users Than
Domino’s, That Are Also Growing Faster
Cowen has been incubating proprietary survey data of 2,500 consumers proportionate
to U.S. census data to analyze monthly average user metrics by age/income/geography
at Domino’s as well as the 4 largest third-party delivery providers (DoorDash, Grubhub,
Postmates and Uber Eats; aka “Big 4”).
According to our proprietary survey data, monthly average users across the Big 4
increased 143% from 14% of respondents collectively in 1Q17 (average of January -
March 2017 data) to 33% in QTD 3Q19. In the more limited time period we’ve recorded
Domino’s, monthly average users tracked in the 20-22% range during 4Q18-QTD 3Q19.
We attribute the acceleration in Big 4 monthly average users, particularly over the past
few quarters, primarily to (1) increasing U.S. household coverage, (2) supply tailwinds
from more restaurants adding third-party delivery capabilities, and (3) increased
marketing reach to help grow consumer awareness.
4 COWEN.COM
Figure 1 Our Proprietary Survey Data Indicates Total MAU’s Across the 4 Figure 2 …With Broad-Based Upward Momentum Across the Big 4
Largest Third-Party Delivery Providers are Up 143% Since Platforms, Most Noticeably at DoorDash
1Q17, Surpassing DPZ as Early as 3Q18…
Source: Cowen and Company, Cowen Consumer Tracker

N = 2502; Question: Which of these online food delivery services have you used in the last 30 days?
Note: On an annual basis, Big 4 MAU’s equated to 15%, 21%, and 31% in 2017, 2018, and YTD 2019 (January-July 2019)
We look at monthly average user data one level deeper, comparing total MAU’s (tallying
the total usage of Big 4 third-party delivery platforms in the past 30 days) to unique
MAU’s (the number of respondents who have used at least one Big 4 third-party
delivery platform in the last 30 days). Our survey data suggests respondents were loyal
to one third-party delivery platform in the 2017 through 3Q18 timeframe, before
respondents began to adopt multiple third-party delivery platforms in 4Q18. The
expanded platform usage has accelerated over the last year as evidenced by a widening
gap between total and unique MAU’s as shown in Figure 3. This suggests to us an
incrementally harder competitive set-up for Domino’s, as consumers broaden third-
party delivery usage.
COWEN.COM 5
Figure 3 Unique vs Total Monthly Average Users Suggests Respondents Began to Add Multiple
Third-Party Delivery Platforms in 4Q18, Sustaining Through QTD 3Q19
Source: Cowen and Company, Cowen Consumer Tracker

6 COWEN.COM
Figure 4 We Cite the Big 4’s Core Monthly Average Users Skew Younger and Urban, Which Also Represents DPZ’s Core Customer
Survey Says: 21% of Respondents are monthly average users of Domino’s, which skew Younger (30% MAU’s) and Urban (27% MAU’s)
Survey Says: Across the Big 4 platforms, monthly average users also skew urban and younger
Source: Cowen and Company

Note: DPZ’s 4Q18 values reflect November and December 2018 data. Geography was added to the survey in January 2019, thus only data since 1Q19 is shown.
COWEN.COM 7
Figure 5 The Big 4 MAU Growth is Smoothest Across Income Brackets. We Believe This Partially Negates DPZ’s Argument That Third-Party Traction is
Unsustainable Without Persistent Subsidies Via Couponing and Discounting

Third-Party Delivery Has Grown Rapidly in the U.S. and Still Has Whitespace…
We expect third-party delivery tailwinds from increasing U.S. household coverage to

continue through 2019. DoorDash’s CEO expressed a desire to reach 100% of U.S.
households by the end of 2019, up from 80% as of the most recent update in August.
Meanwhile, both Uber Eats and Postmates were available to 70% of U.S. households at
2018-end. Grubhub has not publicly disclosed U.S. penetration, though we believe
penetration is at least 70% given Seamless has been in operation since 1999 and
Grubuhub since 2004, longer than major competitors. Please click on the following links
for disclosure from Uber Eats, Postmates and DoorDash.
We note Domino’s largest competitors Pizza Hut and Papa John’s have taken a more
proactive approach to coping with third-party delivery providers by partnering with
them. YUM took a 3% equity stake in Grubhub in February 2018 that included a GRUB
board seat for Pizza Hut CEO Artie Starrs, and was followed by the addition of 347 Pizza
Hut's listing on GRUB's marketplace, according to Thinknum. In March 2019, Papa John's
announced a 1,400+ store partnership with DoorDash, covering nearly half of the
company's domestic locations. Domino's competitors are in more dire situations that
necessitate the lower-margin third-party delivery channel that we do not believe will
push Domino’s U.S. to partner with third-party. But we believe both competitors have
appropriately recognized that third-party is here to stay.
…While the Increased Scale Has Dramatically Increased Aggregators’ Marketing Reach
The Big 4 have reached critical mass in U.S. household coverage, and are rapidly scaling
to fill-in the remainder, that makes national TV advertising economically feasible. We use
iSpot.TV data to measure the cadence of national TV advertising, which provides the
number of airings and timeframe of when the commercials aired.
The Big 4 providers stepped up national TV marketing efforts dramatically in 2019, with
total airtime increasing more than five-fold in 2019-YTD (as of August 2019) vs. 2018. If
we were to extrapolate the 2019-YTD trend, this would imply a three-fold increase in
airtime vs. 2018.
8 COWEN.COM
Figure 6 The Big 4 Are Becoming More Aggressive Using National TV Advertising, With the Number
of TV Commercial Airings up Over 3x Y/Y Annualized 2019 vs 2018
Total Big 4 DoorDash Grubhub Postmates Uber Eats

1Q18 1,053 0 1,012 0 41
2Q18 6,526 0 6,526 0 0
3Q18 11,370 228 11,142 0 0
4Q18 12,253 348 11,711 0 194
1Q19 20,227 3,320 15,483 130 1,294
2Q19 39,755 4,793 28,674 1,792 4,495
3Q19-QTD 26,626 1,453 17,439 3,861 3,873
Source: Cowen and Company, iSpot.TV (Please see Appendix for raw post data)
Note: 3Q19-QTD data is as of 8/31/19. To calculate total airings per quarter, we first calculate number of airings
per day based on total airings / total days in airing window. We then take airings per day * number of days aired
during the quarter to calculate airings per quarter.
Figure 7 Number of National TV Advertisement Airings (per iSpot.TV)
Source: Cowen and Company, iSpot.TV

Note: 3Q19-QTD figures are extrapolated from Figure 6 to reflect a full quarter
The increases in 2019 are broad-based, with the largest increases seen by Grubhub. This
aligns with an acceleration in Grubhub’s marketing spend that increased sharply in 4Q18,
and has remained elevated in YTD 2019.
COWEN.COM 9
Figure 8 Grubhub Marketing Spend Accelerated in 4Q18-2Q19
Source: Cowen and Company, Company filings
Note: Figures stated in US$M’s
Facebook Data Suggest DoorDash Promos Are Accelerating to a Wider Audience
We are also initiating a promotional tracker that combs through posts on third-party
delivery providers’ Facebook pages to serve as a proxy for third-party providers’
promotional intensity. We tally the number of promotional Facebook posts that highlight
a discount or coupon for a delivery, or a reduced or waived delivery fee. Given our
survey data suggests that DoorDash is the fastest growing and largest third-party
delivery provider by monthly average users in 2Q19, we most specifically focus on their
efforts. We note promotions for DoorDash have broadly accelerated as far back as our
tallies go, specifically in 4Q18-3Q19 QTD, which implies ~25+ promotions in full 3Q19 if
the QTD run-rate maintains, similar to the levels seen in 2Q19. This represents a material
y/y step-up from 3Q18's 8 promotional posts.
10 COWEN.COM
Figure 9 Count of DoorDash Facebook Promotional Posts
Source: Cowen and Company, Facebook (please see Appendix for raw post data)
Note: 3Q19-QTD data is as of 8/31/19
We note the acceleration in DoorDash promotions is even more apparent when

considering the growing number of “reactions”. In Figure 10, we calculate reactions per
each promotion as the sum of the number of “Likes” and “Comments” to promotional
posts, as a barometer for a promotional post's reach.
We note Postmates is not as consistent with Facebook promotional posts as DoorDash,
making it difficult to include in our Tracker. Importantly, we note a similar trajectory of
“reactions” to Postmates' promotional posts as DoorDash, which highlights the growing
reach of Postmates as the company gains traction and grows coverage. We exclude
Grubhub from this section given the company’s profitable business model that favors
advertising over broader discounts and coupons, while Uber Eats also prioritizes
advertising over broader coupons and discounts.
Figure 10 Average Number of Reactions per DoorDash Facebook Figure 11 Average Number of Reactions per Postmates Facebook
Promotion Promotion
Source: Cowen and Company, Facebook

Figures are calculated as the sum of likes and comments on Facebook promotion posts in each quarter, divided by total Facebook promotion posts in each quarter.
COWEN.COM 11
Time to Make a New Plan, Stan
Metrics point to sustained, intensified third-party delivery competition in 3Q QTD. We
lower our 3Q same store sales estimate from 3% to 2.5%, which represents 110 bps of
slowdown on a two year basis. Our estimate compares to 3% Consensus Metrix, which
implies 60 bps deterioration in two-year same store sales that we believe to be too
optimistic based on our data as well as the lack of new tactics launched by Domino's in
3Q. We get the sense top-line challenges are prompting the company to think more
tactically in the short term to combat the intensified competitive infringement, though
Domino’s must be mindful of franchisee profitability to maintain healthy relations while
the company is targeting 2,000+ domestic net restaurant openings over the next seven
years as part of long term targets for 25,000 global locations.
We lower our 4Q estimate from 3% to 2%, implying 120 bps of deceleration from 3Q to
4Q on a two-year basis, relative to 3.5% Consensus Metrix that suggests 20 bps of
deterioration from 3Q to 4Q. Our below-consensus 4Q estimate could be optimistic as
the past two 4Q’s have decelerated by 500 bps each on a two-year basis from 3Q levels,
with each negatively impacted by 50 bps each year due to holiday shifts.
We maintain our consensus-matching 4% same store sales estimate in 2020, which

represents 120 bps of deceleration on a two-year basis vs our 2H19 estimates. We note
unsubstantiated Business Insider and Bloomberg media reports, respectively, that
suggest the filing for an IPO could occur as soon as this month for Postmates and early
2020 for DoorDash. If the companies are planning a public offering, we would expect a
heightened round of discounting around these events to create investor excitement
around top-line trends. Even if the media gets the potential IPO dates wrong, the
possibility of an IPO in the medium term for these businesses leaves us concerned that
sustained elevated, to perhaps intensifying, discounting and marketing activity could
transpire amid already heightened activity.
We get the sense Domino’s will address the short term playbook more directly at the
September 6th Open House at the company’s Ann Arbor, MI headquarters. Over the
next 12-18 months, we point to the following opportunities we would like to see
pursued to help drive comps, and specifically traffic:
Menu Innovation: Domino’s is due for menu innovation following the last menu
introduction of salads in August 2016. In our view, the most compelling opportunity is
the launch of plant-based pepperoni and/or sausage pizza toppings, similar to the
Impossible Sausage pilot at Little Caesar’s that was launched in May 2019.
In July 2019, Domino’s Australia announced plans to launch plant-based beef, a vegan
substitute to the market’s second most popular topping in early September. Testing and
development took nine months for the proprietary plant-based offering, in part
presumably due to value engineering needed to sell the topping at no extra charge to
traditional beef. The announcement of plant-based ham and plant-based pepperoni
shortly followed for Domino's Australia. Interestingly, Domino’s Australia’s data
suggested 93% of Australian consumers looking for plant-based offerings are not
vegetarian/vegan.
We get the sense Domino’s U.S. is exploring plant-based proteins. One consideration for
menu innovation is preference to feature new menu items in the $5.99 Mix & Match
platform, which could present margin problems if plant-based proteins in the U.S. cost
materially more than traditional meats. We get the sense upcoming innovation will likely
be a revamp of an existing product. Menu innovation for hot food must be operationally
12 COWEN.COM
compliant with the company's conveyor belt ovens, which we believe precludes
upgraded chicken offerings (boneless and bone-in) that are on-trend with consumer
tastes but presumably require fryers.
Loyalty Enhancements: We like Domino’s Piece of the Pie loyalty program given the
simplicity of the program and intuitive transparency towards when a free 2 topping
medium pizza reward will be accrued. We would like to see Domino’s run more one-off
promotions through the loyalty program given the short and long term benefits, even if
the medium term benefits are not evident within same store sales. In 1Q19, Domino’s
launched Points for Pies, whereby users took pictures of any slice of pizza (Domino’s or
otherwise) through Domino’s app, to accrue points through the Piece of the Pie loyalty
program to redeem towards free pizza. We note same store sales accelerated 190 bps
from 4Q18 to 1Q19, when factoring in 50 bps from the shift of New Year’s Eve.
Domino’s expressed encouragement around the promotion’s acceleration in app
downloads and loyalty program enrollments, which leads us to believe loyalty
enhancements will be further pursued. We note the benefits of loyalty enhancements
will likely take hold longer term as opposed to near term as demonstrated by 230 bps
deterioration in same store sales from 1Q19 to 2Q19.
Subscription/Membership Model Unlikely for Domino's
In recent months, we have seen third party providers quickly adopt subscription models
whereby users pay a monthly fee for $0 delivery fees from select restaurants on a
provider’s platform at a set order minimum size of roughly $12-$15. This includes
DoorDash’s $9.99/month DashPass, Uber Eats’ $9.99/month Eats Pass, and Postmates
Unlimited for $9.99/month or $99.99/year. We do not believe the order minimum size
presents an issue given an estimated $30 average ticket for third-party providers within
our proprietary delivery model, and roughly $20 for Domino’s. DoorDash has disclosed 1
in 3 orders are coming from DashPass members in top markets, while Postmates has
disclosed 1 in 2 orders on the platform are placed via Unlimited across multiple markets.
These programs obviously build loyalty and stickiness, as consumers look to maximize
the monthly membership fee, similar to Amazon Prime. We get the sense Domino’s is
not looking to pursue this type of subscription due to the poor economics of the
subscription while the company must focus on franchisee profitability. Our Cowen
Consumer Tracker suggests average guest frequency of 2.2 times per month at
Domino’s. Using a random sampling of stores, we estimate Domino's domestic delivery
fee is between $3-$4 per order. This would imply a break-even monthly membership
fee of $6.60-$8.80. We do not believe the breakeven level provides a good value for a
single restaurant offering whereas third-party providers offer multiple restaurants for a
slightly higher monthly fee. Further, a nationally promoted $6.60-$8.80 monthly
subscription fee would not be profitable for franchisees in urban areas where third-
party competition is fiercest, and delivery fees can total as high as $5-$6 per order.
Domino’s Value Structure Faces Challenges: We respect Domino’s value niche within the
delivery category, with the $5.99 Mix & Match platform that has been a staple for the
last 5+ years. However, given the low price point and presumably low margin profile of
the offering, mgmt has cited the platform is volume (aka transaction) dependent to
grow franchisee profitability. Following flat traffic in 2Q, our estimates embed negative
traffic in 3Q19 and 4Q19. This is further challenged by rising cheese prices that are at
levels seen only twice before in the past 4.5 years, and a potential increase in pork
prices expected from African Swine Fever. It’s hard to say if this will prompt a shift in
the value platform to either a $6.99 price point or another pricing tier of value offerings
given the fluidity of the commodity environment. All we can say is Domino’s views the
$5.99 platform as critical to offering value in a category that lacks pricing power, and
COWEN.COM 13
views a price increase as a last resort. Anecdotally, in recent memory we point to

Subway's increased pricing for the $5 Footlong and Jack in the Box's 2 Tacos for $0.99
as eroding the brand's value perception that led to sustained traffic challenges. We note
national pizza competitors Papa John's and Pizza Hut are testing new value efforts to
help drive traffic, and could further leave Domino's stuck with $5.99 price points to
remain competitive.
Figure 12 Cheddar Cheese Block Trading Price Figure 13 Lean Hogs Active Futures
Source: Cowen and Company, Bloomberg Source: Cowen and Company. Bloomberg
Note: Data reflects Oct19 contract prices
Franchisee Cash Flows on Pace to Decline for First Year Since Pre-2009
We note in 2017 and 2018, U.S. same store sales increased 7.6% and 6.8%, respectively,
resulting in a modest increase in U.S. franchise store EBITDA from $133,000 in 2016 to
$136,000 in 2017 and $141,000 in 2018 amid industry wage pressures, and, specific to
2018, food cost pressure. 1H19’s 3.5% domestic franchise same store sales
performance represents the slowest rate of growth since 2012. We are concerned this
puts Domino’s on track for the first year of declines in store-level EBITDA since before
2009. Commodities are projected to increase 2%-4%, in-line with 2018 levels, though we
note more severe cheese inflation (20-25% of commodity basket) so far in 2019 relative
to the comparable 2018 timeframe. Further, pork prices (an estimated ~10% of the
commodity basket via pepperoni, sausage and ham toppings) have been favorable in
recent months but could reverse later this year on accelerated China pork imports amid
African Swine Fever.
One data point that we believe signals pressure on franchisee profitability is 2Q’s 3%
domestic comp was driven entirely by higher delivery fees and menu pricing, with flat
traffic. This comes at a time when third-party providers were actively subsidizing and
couponing delivery fees to grow order counts. We get the sense franchisees are taking
matters into their own hands to grow profitability amid the challenged traffic backdrop
when Domino’s data indicates raising delivery fees is broadly undisciplined and
unjustifiable in the current backdrop. The pizza category broadly lacks pricing power as
evidenced by management commentary during the 2Q earnings call and Domino’s $5.99
price point each for two medium, two topping pizzas that was a similar price charged in
1982.
14 COWEN.COM
International Development Impressive in 1H19, Prompting Us to Raise 2019-21E
International development has been spotty in recent years, a function of macro cross
currents and conversions of concept acquisitions. We are encouraged by 354 gross
openings and 23 closures in 1H19, a healthier pace than 252 gross openings and 60
closures recorded in 1H18. We note 1H19 included approximately 35 conversions of
Hallo Pizza locations in Germany to Domino’s, relative to 19 in calendar 1H18 and 72 in
calendar 2H18. This translates to 233 non-conversion gross international openings in
1H18 vs 319 in 1H19. We are raising our 2019-21E net international restaurant
openings based on the step-up in 1H19, from 840, 865 and 890 to 875, 900 and 940,
respectively, or effectively splitting the difference with 2019-21 Consensus Metrix of
906, 937 and 986. When we factor in the higher restaurant counts on an evenly spaced
quarterly basis, this contributes to $0.00, $0.02 and $0.05 to our 2019-21E EPS. We
remain below Consensus Metrix on international net openings given the lumpiness of
past years results, combined with decelerating same store sales trends in three of the
last four years that does not bode well for future development.
Figure 14 1H19 International Net Restaurant Openings Off to a Good Start, Though This Has
Historically Been Choppy
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2015 93 172 180 323
2016 146 215 288 461
2017 161 178 164 326
2018 79* 113 173 435
2019 173 158 200E 344E
Source: Cowen and Company, Company Reports
*Excludes impact from transfer of 31 Alaska and Hawaii stores from international segment to U.S. segment,
beginning in 2018
To Cut, or Not to Cut – That is the Question (And Perhaps the Answer)
We are forecasting 2.8% domestic comps in 2019 and 4% in 2020-21, with all years near
the lower half of 3%-6% long term guidance. Internationally, Domino’s 2017-18 same
store sales increases of 3.4% and 3.5%, respectively, as well 1H19’s 2.1% performance
argue the long term 3%-6% range is out of touch with reality.
Ahead of the September 6th meeting, we believe the reality of long term same store
sales guidance, both domestically and internationally, warrants deeper contemplation
by management. The high end of guidance seems like a stretch amid same store sales
headwinds from Domino’s fortressing approach to development and competitive
pressure from third-party delivery, neither of which seem to be abating in the near to
medium term. We acknowledge the day long term guidance is lowered will presumably
sting the stock, but we believe the upside to shares from removing the overhang of a
potential guidance cut and allowing the company to better operate against targets that
are achievable justifies doing so. This was the case with Starbucks, where shares are up
49% since the December 14, 2018 investor meeting, when long term annual guidance
was modestly lowered.
COWEN.COM 15
Figure 15 Domino’s Long-Term Top Line Guidance History
Global Net Units Domestic SSS International SSS Global Retail Sales
2019 Investor Day 6-8% 3-6% 3-6% 8-12%
2018 6-8% 3-6% 3-6% 8-12%
2017 6-8% 3-6% 3-6% 8-12%
2016 5-7% 2-5% 3-6% 7-11%
2015 5-7% 2-4% 3-6% 7-11%
2014 4-6% 2-4% 3-6% 6-10%
2013 4-6% 1-3% 3-6% 6-10%
2012 350-450 1-3% 3-6% 5-8%
2011 250-300 1-3% 3-5% 4-7%
2010 200-250 1-3% 3-5% 4-6%
Source: Cowen and Company, Company reports
Note: Highlighted cells indicate a guidance change
We’d like to see the company rip the bandage and cut same store sales guidance at the
September 6th meeting. As seen in Figure 19, Domino’s typically takes a measured
approach to updating long term guidance, historically raising the same store sales range
by roughly 100 bps at a time. Domestically, relative to Consensus Metrix’s 4% estimate in
2020-21, we would not expect much downside to shares from lowering the 3%-6%
range by 100 bps to 2%-5%, as the midpoint would be slightly below consensus
expectations. Internationally, Domino’s has far greater permission to lower the same
store sales guidance range given this accounts for ~25% of gross profits and has
consistently posted same store sales at the low end or below the 3%-6% long term range
for the last 2.5 years. Our 2020-21 internationally same store sales estimates of 3%
virtually match Consensus Metrix, leading us to argue a lowering of annual guidance to
2%-5% or 2%-4% would not be met with much investor resistance.
Most importantly, we prefer not to see Domino’s need to cut the global same store sales
guidance range more than once in the near term. Said another way, we would like
management to cut the guidance range to the degree they feel comfortable operating
against, not one the Street feels comfortable. Shares would naturally see more short
term pain if the domestic range was lowered to 2%-4%, but we would still view shares as
well positioned given the valuation discount to asset-light, global quick service
restaurants.
Indeed, Domino’s is trading at a discount to Yum and Restaurant Brands International on
both 2020E EV/EBITDA and levered FCF yield despite a still superior system sales
growth rate with a lowered 2%-4% global same store sales outlook. By comparison, Yum
formally targets 2%-3% global system comps while Restaurant Brands International has
a track record in recent years of roughly 2% system same store sales growth, meaning
an updated 2%-4% global range for Domino’s would place the company in-line to better
than highly franchised, global quick service peers. In our view, the key unlock to share
appreciation for Domino’s is demonstrating in-line domestic same store sales to reverse
the 2Q and presumed 3Q QTD deterioration, a dynamic we do not expect until 2020. This
would be aided by increased transparency to upcoming same store sales drivers.
Additionally, Yum formally targets 4% ongoing net restaurant development while
Restaurant Brands International’s long term target for 40,000+ global locations in 8-10
years implies roughly 5% ongoing annual net restaurant development at the midpoint.
We do not expect a guide down in the near term of Domino’s 6%-8% annual net
restaurant development and the related 25,000 store target by 2025. We note the
multi-year timeframe of the 25,000 store target, geographic breadth of development, as
well as opportunities for concept acquisitions and conversions that have historically
been utilized by Domino’s international master franchisees that are also available.
16 COWEN.COM
Figure 16 DPZ Trades at a Discount to QSR and YUM on a 2020E Levered FCF Valuation Basis…
$ in millions, except per share DPZ QSR YUM
Current Share Price $226.84 $78.45 $116.78
Current Share Count 42.2 469.0 314.0
Equity Market Cap $9,581 $36,793 $36,669
2020E EBITDA $761 $2,435 $2,224

-
D&A $73 $193 $113
x (1-Tax Rate)
Tax Rate 20% 22% 20%
+ D&A - CapEx
CapEx $90 $55 $100
+
(1)
2020E Non-Cash EBITDA Impact of ASC 606 $2 $53 $52
/
Share Count 40.8 469.0 297.0
2020E Unlevered Free Cash Flow Per Share (2) $13.12 $4.16 $5.91
-
Interest Expense $141 $568 $498
x (1-Tax Rate) / Share
(3)
2020E Levered FCF Per Share $10.35 $3.21 $4.56
(4)
2020E Levered FCF Yield 4.6% 4.1% 3.9%
Source: Cowen and Company, Company reports. We use 2020 estimates and capital structures for all companies.
Pricing as of 8/30/19
(1) Cowen and company
(2) Unlevered FCF calculated as [EBIT*(1- Tax Rate) + D&A + Non-Cash EBITDA impact of ASC 606 –
Capex)/Share Count.
(3) Levered FCF calculated as [Unlevered FCF – Interest*(1 –Tax Rate)]
(4) Levered FCF Yield calculated as (Levered FCF/ Equity Market cap)
COWEN.COM 17
Figure 17 …As Well As on a 2020E EV/EBITDA Basis...
QSR YUM
Current Price $78 Current Price $117
Current Share Count 469 Current Share Count 314
Current Market Cap $36,793 Current Market Cap $36,638
Net Debt $10,709 Net Debt $9,942
Current EV $47,502 Current EV $46,580
2020 EBITDA $2,488 2020 EBITDA $2,276
2020 EV/EBITDA 19.1 2020 EV/EBITDA 20.5
DPZ
Current Price $227
Current Share Count 41
Current Market Cap $9,353
Net Debt $3,343
Current EV $12,696
2020 EBITDA $763
2020 EV/EBITDA 16.6
Note: We use 2020 estimates and capital structures for all companies. Pricing as of 8/30/19. Our QSR, YUM, and
DPZ 2020E EBITDA estimates shown above are inclusive of $53M, $52M, and $2M of deferred initial franchise fees;
18 COWEN.COM
Figure 18 …Despite a Still Superior 2019E-21E System Sales Growth Profile
Global Same Store Sales
DPZ QSR YUM AVERAGE
2019E 2.8% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3%
2020E 3.5% 2.2% 2.2% 2.6%
2021E 3.5% 2.1% 2.2% 2.6%
AVERAGE 3.3% 2.5% 2.7% 2.8%
Global Net Restaurant Growth

DPZ QSR YUM AVERAGE
2019E 7.0% 5.1% 4.1% 5.4%
2020E 6.8% 5.2% 4.1% 5.4%
2021E 6.7% 5.5% 4.1% 5.4%
AVERAGE 6.8% 5.3% 4.1% 5.4%
Global Same Store Sales + Global Net Restaurant Growth

DPZ QSR YUM AVERAGE
2019E 9.8% 8.4% 7.8% 8.7%
2020E 10.3% 7.4% 6.4% 8.0%
2021E 10.2% 7.6% 6.4% 8.0%
AVERAGE 10.1% 7.8% 6.8% 8.2%
Despite our argument for why a guidance cut makes sense and could help the stock
longer term, our bias is that Domino’s will unlikely cut domestic same store sales in the
near term for 4 reasons: 1) 2Q's two-year domestic same store sales performance of
9.9% is at the midpoint of 6%-12% comps when viewing annual guidance of 3%-6% on a
two-year basis. 2) Mgmt believes the irrational discounting and marketing spend from
third-party delivery is a near-to-medium term dynamic, but not a long term dynamic, 3)
international comps have trended at the low end to below long term guidance for the
last 2.5 years, though guidance has not been slashed, and 4) the CEO who has been at
the helm since only July 2018 likely wants more time to try turning around sales before
potentially cutting guidance.
Opportunity to Reduce G&A is More Significant Than We Previously Appreciated
Amid what could be a sustained period of same store sales underperformance, we

would not be surprised to see Domino’s place a greater focus on cost controls to drive
profitability. We believe a sharper focus on cost controls will reduce the company’s risk
of missing consensus EPS estimates, but is unlikely to be rewarded with multiple
expansion as investors look for top-line reacceleration.
Through 2018, over the last 3, 5 and 7 years, G&A as a percent of system sales has
improved 1, 4 and 4 bps on average per year. We maintain our 2019 estimate of $392.5
million, at the midpoint of $390-395M. It’s unclear if the original 2019 G&A guidance
issued in January embedded the impact of the 59 store NYC refranchising in 2Q. We
note the benefit of carrying 15% fewer company-operated locations is in part offset by
a $2.4M loss that adds to 2019 G&A. We lower our 2020-21 G&A estimates from $425
COWEN.COM 19
million and $465 million to $416 million and $440 million, respectively. Our 2019-21
estimates broadly align with Consensus Metrix estimates of $391 million, $416 million
and $443 million, and represent 6 bps, 10 bps and 10 bps of leverage on a percent of
system sales basis, respectively. We note 2016-18 stock-based compensation of $18.6
million, $20.7 million and $22.8 million, represented only 6% of G&A expense per year.
Domino’s G&A opportunity is most visible when compared to quick service peers’ G&A
(ex-advertising for McDonald’s and RBI) as a percent of system sales. In 2019, we
forecast Domino’s G&A as 2.7% of system sales vs the quick service peer average of
2.2%. We do not expect Domino’s to match the peer average anytime soon given
investments in technology to remain best in class that leads us to model 2.3% of system
sales in 2023. To help illustrate, a reduction in G&A to in-line with peers would equate to
a $1.37 contribution to EPS.
Figure 19 2019E G&A Across Quick Service Franchised Concepts (ex-Advertising) Averages to 2.2% Ex-Domino’s
MCD YUM QSR DPZ DNKN WEN PZZA JACK

Average Stores in Operation 38,254 49,121 26,398 16,469 21,082 6,757 5,365 2,243
Estimated G&A $2,146 $878 $410 $393 $236 $195 $154 $86
G&A Per Store $56,097 $17,879 $15,542 $23,833 $11,216 $28,866 $28,731 $38,531
Systemwide Sales ($M) $100,733 $53,519 $34,307 $14,552 $12,078 $10,852 $3,633 $3,500
G&A as a % of Sales 2.1% 1.6% 1.2% 2.7% 2.0% 1.8% 4.2% 2.5%
Source: Cowen and Company, Company reports. We use our estimates for covered companies and Consensus Metrix for Papa John’s.
Opportunities to Recapitalize as Soon as The Start of 2020
Domino's highly franchised model with minimal capital needs permits a high tolerance
for debt, with the company formally targeting a 3x-6x net debt/LTM EBITDA range. We
note the company has pursued four recapitalizations in the last 7 years, with the
important nuance that all 4 were pursued when leverage ratios were well above the
bottom of the stated ranges. This includes refinancings when the model carried 4.9x
leverage in 2012, 3.9x in 2013, 4.4x in 2017 and 5.5x in 2018.
Further recapitalizations could be on the horizon for Domino's, justified by the low
interest rate backdrop, with proceeds to be used for share repurchases following the
pullback to help deliver shareholder value amongst challenged top-line trends. We
model 5x leverage at the end of 2019. If the company relevers to 6x at the start of
2020, and uses the $700 million of incremental proceeds to pursue an ASR at
$250/share in 1Q20, this would lead to 2020-22 EPS accretion of $0.02, $0.15 and
$0.30, respectively. Instead, should the company relever to 6x at the start of 2021, and
use the $1.15 billion of incremental proceeds to pursue an ASR at $275/share in 1Q21,
this would lead to 2021-22 EPS accretion of $0.30 and $0.57, respectively. Below we
provide sensitivities to our EPS estimates under both scenarios. We argue deteriorating
fundamentals are not the most optimal time to recapitalize the business, but Domino's
highly franchised model is capable of servicing heavy debt loads.
20 COWEN.COM
Figure 20 Scenario 1: Raise $700 Million in 1Q20 and Pursue ASR
2020 EPS Impact Buyback Share Price
$220 $230 $240 $250 $260 $270 $280 $290 $300
3.3% $0.38 $0.34 $0.31 $0.27 $0.24 $0.21 $0.19 $0.16 $0.14
3.5% $0.34 $0.30 $0.27 $0.23 $0.20 $0.17 $0.15 $0.12 $0.10
Interest Rate
3.8% $0.30 $0.26 $0.23 $0.19 $0.16 $0.13 $0.11 $0.08 $0.06
4.0% $0.26 $0.22 $0.19 $0.15 $0.12 $0.09 $0.07 $0.04 $0.02
4.3% $0.22 $0.18 $0.15 $0.11 $0.08 $0.06 $0.03 $0.01 ($0.02)
4.5% $0.18 $0.14 $0.11 $0.07 $0.04 $0.02 ($0.01) ($0.03) ($0.06)
4.8% $0.14 $0.10 $0.07 $0.03 $0.00 ($0.02) ($0.05) ($0.07) ($0.10)
5.0% $0.10 $0.06 $0.03 ($0.01) ($0.04) ($0.06) ($0.09) ($0.11) ($0.14)
$220 $230 $240 $250 $260 $270 $280 $290 $300
3.3% $0.55 $0.51 $0.46 $0.42 $0.38 $0.35 $0.32 $0.29 $0.26
3.5% $0.51 $0.46 $0.42 $0.38 $0.34 $0.31 $0.28 $0.25 $0.22
3.8% $0.47 $0.42 $0.38 $0.34 $0.30 $0.27 $0.24 $0.21 $0.18
Interest Rate
4.0% $0.43 $0.38 $0.34 $0.30 $0.26 $0.23 $0.20 $0.17 $0.14
4.3% $0.39 $0.34 $0.30 $0.26 $0.22 $0.19 $0.16 $0.13 $0.10
4.5% $0.35 $0.30 $0.26 $0.22 $0.18 $0.15 $0.11 $0.09 $0.06
4.8% $0.31 $0.26 $0.22 $0.18 $0.14 $0.11 $0.07 $0.05 $0.02
5.0% $0.27 $0.22 $0.18 $0.14 $0.10 $0.07 $0.03 $0.01 ($0.02)
$220 $230 $240 $250 $260 $270 $280 $290 $300
3.3% $0.76 $0.70 $0.65 $0.60 $0.55 $0.51 $0.47 $0.44 $0.40
3.5% $0.72 $0.66 $0.61 $0.56 $0.51 $0.47 $0.43 $0.40 $0.36
3.8% $0.68 $0.62 $0.56 $0.52 $0.47 $0.43 $0.39 $0.36 $0.32
Interest Rate
4.0% $0.64 $0.58 $0.52 $0.47 $0.43 $0.39 $0.35 $0.31 $0.28
4.3% $0.59 $0.54 $0.48 $0.43 $0.39 $0.35 $0.31 $0.27 $0.24
4.5% $0.55 $0.49 $0.44 $0.39 $0.35 $0.31 $0.27 $0.23 $0.20
4.8% $0.51 $0.45 $0.40 $0.35 $0.31 $0.26 $0.23 $0.19 $0.16
5.0% $0.47 $0.41 $0.36 $0.31 $0.26 $0.22 $0.19 $0.15 $0.12
$220 $230 $240 $250 $260 $270 $280 $290 $300
3.3% $1.02 $0.95 $0.88 $0.82 $0.76 $0.71 $0.67 $0.62 $0.58
3.5% $0.97 $0.90 $0.84 $0.78 $0.72 $0.67 $0.62 $0.58 $0.54
3.8% $0.93 $0.86 $0.79 $0.73 $0.68 $0.63 $0.58 $0.54 $0.50
Interest Rate
4.0% $0.89 $0.82 $0.75 $0.69 $0.64 $0.59 $0.54 $0.50 $0.46
4.3% $0.85 $0.77 $0.71 $0.65 $0.60 $0.55 $0.50 $0.46 $0.42
4.5% $0.80 $0.73 $0.67 $0.61 $0.55 $0.50 $0.46 $0.41 $0.37
4.8% $0.76 $0.69 $0.62 $0.57 $0.51 $0.46 $0.41 $0.37 $0.33
5.0% $0.72 $0.65 $0.58 $0.52 $0.47 $0.42 $0.37 $0.33 $0.29
COWEN.COM 21
Figure 21 Scenario 2: Raise $1,150 Million in 1Q21 and Pursue ASR
$220 $230 $240 $250 $260 $270 $280 $290 $300 $310 $320
3.3% $0.96 $0.87 $0.79 $0.72 $0.65 $0.59 $0.53 $0.48 $0.44 $0.39 $0.35
3.5% $0.89 $0.80 $0.72 $0.65 $0.58 $0.52 $0.47 $0.41 $0.37 $0.32 $0.28
Interest Rate
3.8% $0.81 $0.73 $0.65 $0.58 $0.51 $0.45 $0.40 $0.34 $0.30 $0.25 $0.21
4.0% $0.74 $0.66 $0.58 $0.51 $0.44 $0.38 $0.33 $0.28 $0.23 $0.18 $0.14
4.3% $0.67 $0.58 $0.51 $0.44 $0.37 $0.31 $0.26 $0.21 $0.16 $0.12 $0.08
4.5% $0.60 $0.51 $0.44 $0.36 $0.30 $0.24 $0.19 $0.14 $0.09 $0.05 $0.01
4.8% $0.53 $0.44 $0.36 $0.29 $0.23 $0.17 $0.12 $0.07 $0.02 ($0.02) ($0.06)
5.0% $0.45 $0.37 $0.29 $0.22 $0.16 $0.10 $0.05 ($0.00) ($0.05) ($0.09) ($0.13)
$220 $230 $240 $250 $260 $270 $280 $290 $300 $310 $320
3.3% $1.32 $1.21 $1.11 $1.03 $0.95 $0.87 $0.80 $0.74 $0.68 $0.63 $0.58
3.5% $1.25 $1.14 $1.04 $0.95 $0.87 $0.80 $0.73 $0.67 $0.61 $0.56 $0.51
3.8% $1.17 $1.07 $0.97 $0.88 $0.80 $0.73 $0.66 $0.60 $0.54 $0.49 $0.44
Interest Rate
4.0% $1.10 $0.99 $0.90 $0.81 $0.73 $0.66 $0.59 $0.53 $0.47 $0.42 $0.37
4.3% $1.03 $0.92 $0.82 $0.74 $0.66 $0.59 $0.52 $0.46 $0.40 $0.35 $0.30
4.5% $0.95 $0.85 $0.75 $0.67 $0.59 $0.52 $0.45 $0.39 $0.33 $0.28 $0.23
4.8% $0.88 $0.77 $0.68 $0.59 $0.52 $0.44 $0.38 $0.32 $0.26 $0.21 $0.16
5.0% $0.80 $0.70 $0.61 $0.52 $0.44 $0.37 $0.31 $0.25 $0.19 $0.14 $0.09
## $220 $230 $240 $250 $260 $270 $280 $290 $300 $310 $320
3.3% $1.77 $1.64 $1.52 $1.41 $1.31 $1.22 $1.14 $1.06 $0.99 $0.93 $0.87
3.5% $1.69 $1.56 $1.44 $1.34 $1.24 $1.15 $1.07 $0.99 $0.92 $0.86 $0.79
3.8% $1.62 $1.49 $1.37 $1.26 $1.17 $1.08 $0.99 $0.92 $0.85 $0.78 $0.72
Interest Rate
4.0% $1.54 $1.41 $1.30 $1.19 $1.09 $1.00 $0.92 $0.85 $0.78 $0.71 $0.65
4.3% $1.47 $1.34 $1.22 $1.12 $1.02 $0.93 $0.85 $0.77 $0.70 $0.64 $0.58
4.5% $1.39 $1.26 $1.15 $1.04 $0.95 $0.86 $0.78 $0.70 $0.63 $0.57 $0.51
4.8% $1.32 $1.19 $1.07 $0.97 $0.87 $0.78 $0.70 $0.63 $0.56 $0.50 $0.44
5.0% $1.24 $1.11 $1.00 $0.89 $0.80 $0.71 $0.63 $0.56 $0.49 $0.42 $0.36
Valuation: Superior System Sales Algorithm Offset By Below Consensus 2H19 Same
Store Sales
We previously valued Domino’s based on the low-end of Domino's historic FY1

EV/EBITDA premium of 6%-50% to blended McDonald’s and Yum! Brands. With our
lower 2H19 same store sales estimates, we now view an in-line valuation multiple with
peers as more appropriate. We believe DPZ’s still superior system sales growth profile
vs peers in 2019E-21E is offset by a negative sales revision embedded in our 2H19
estimates compared to McDonalds U.S. and Taco Bell U.S. that we believe set-up for
positive sales revisions. This equates to a $260 price target from $290 previously, or
18.5x 2020E EV/EBITDA, from 20.4x previously.
22 COWEN.COM
Figure 22 Domino’s System Sales Profile Outpaces MCD and YUM
Global Same Store Sales
DPZ MCD YUM AVERAGE
2016 8.4% 3.8% 0.8% 4.3%
2017 5.6% 5.4% 1.4% 4.1%
2018 5.1% 4.6% 2.1% 3.9%
2019E 2.8% 6.1% 3.7% 4.2%
2020E 3.5% 4.2% 2.2% 3.3%
2021E 3.5% 3.6% 2.2% 3.1%
AVERAGE 4.8% 4.6% 2.1% 3.8%
Global Net Restaurant Growth

DPZ MCD YUM AVERAGE
2016 10.2% 1.0% 2.8% 4.7%
2017 7.6% 0.9% 3.2% 3.9%
2018 7.1% 1.6% 4.0% 4.3%
2019E 7.0% 2.1% 4.1% 4.4%
2020E 6.8% 2.1% 4.1% 4.4%
2021E 6.7% 2.3% 4.1% 4.4%
AVERAGE 6.8% 2.2% 4.1% 4.4%
Global Same Store Sales + Global Net Restaurant Growth

DPZ MCD YUM AVERAGE
2016 18.6% 4.8% 3.6% 9.0%
2017 13.2% 6.3% 4.6% 8.0%
2018 12.2% 6.2% 6.1% 8.2%
2019E 9.8% 8.2% 7.8% 8.6%
2020E 10.3% 6.3% 6.4% 7.7%
2021E 10.2% 5.9% 6.4% 7.5%
AVERAGE 10.1% 6.8% 6.8% 7.9%
COWEN.COM 23
Figure 23 DPZ Historical FY 1 EV/EBITDA Valuation Spread to Quick Service Peers (MCD, YUM)
Source: Bloomberg, Cowen and Company
Figure 24 Five Year FY 1 EV/EBITDA; Average = 18.3x
24 COWEN.COM
Figure 25 Five Year FY 1 P/E; Average = 29.2x
Figure 26 8% Short Interest as a % of Float is Elevated, But Still Far From 16% Peak
Domino’s Remains a Take-Out Candidate
Our strategic rationale on why Restaurant Brands International should acquire Domino's
previously published in Thought Experiment: The Case for RBI to Acquire DPZ is broadly
intact. We believe there is a 50% chance Restaurant Brands makes an acquisition in the
next year with a 50% chance that Domino's is the target, implying a 25% probability that
Restaurant Brands International purchases Domino’s in the next year. In August, 3G
redeemed 24 million partnership units of RBI for the fourth time in four 4 years.
Noteworthy was that this was the first time that RBI did not repurchase any of the
shares in conjunction with a 3G sale, despite a near peak cash balance of $1.028 billion at
2Q-end at 5x net debt/adjusted EBITDA that trends at the midpoint of RBI’s historical
3x-8x range. We argue RBI could be stockpiling cash and balance sheet capacity for an
upcoming M&A opportunity.
COWEN.COM 25
Figure 27 Domino’s Income Statement
DPZ - Income Statement
2016 2017 2018 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19E 4Q19E 2019E 1Q20E 2Q20E 3Q20E 4Q20E 2020E 2021E
Revenues:
Domestic Company-owned Stores 439.0 490.8 514.8 123.5 105.0 101.6 137.1 467.2 108.2 104.3 107.2 144.6 464.3 490.4
Domestic Franchise, and other 312.3 351.4 391.5 96.7 95.6 96.6 134.2 423.1 105.5 103.7 104.2 144.9 458.2 495.7
Domestic Distribution 1,544.3 1,739.0 1,943.3 472.1 467.6 499.7 697.9 2,137.2 541.8 518.3 538.6 753.8 2,352.5 2,544.7
International 177.0 206.7 224.7 54.6 55.0 55.8 79.8 245.1 60.4 61.0 62.5 88.3 272.3 303.4
Domestic Franchise Advertising - - 358.5 89.1 88.5 89.2 121.0 387.8 97.3 95.5 96.3 131.1 420.2 455.3
Total Revenues 2,472.6 2,788.0 3,432.9 836.0 811.6 842.9 1,170.0 3,660.5 913.1 882.8 908.8 1,262.8 3,967.4 4,289.5
% growth 11.6% 12.8% 23.1% 6.4% 4.1% 7.2% 8.1% 6.6% 9.2% 8.8% 7.8% 7.9% 8.4% 8.1%
Cost of Sales:
Domestic Company-owned Stores 331.9 377.7 398.2 95.5 80.4 78.7 104.2 358.8 82.8 80.0 83.1 110.0 356.0 376.5
Domestic Distribution 1,373.1 1,544.3 1,732.0 418.1 414.6 443.5 618.4 1,894.6 479.3 459.6 478.5 669.2 2,086.6 2,254.6
Advertising Expense 358.5 89.1 88.5 89.2 121.0 387.8 97.3 95.5 96.3 131.1 420.2 455.3
Total cost of sales 1,704.9 1,922.0 2,488.7 602.8 583.5 611.4 843.7 2,641.3 659.4 635.1 658.0 910.4 2,862.8 3,086.5
Gross profit 767.7 866.0 944.2 233.2 228.2 231.5 326.3 1,019.2 253.7 247.7 250.8 352.4 1,104.6 1,203.1
G&A 313.7 344.8 372.5 89.7 89.2 87.7 125.9 392.5 96.1 95.3 92.7 131.9 416.0 440.0
Restructuring charge - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
EBIT 454.0 521.2 571.7 143.5 138.9 143.9 200.4 626.7 157.6 152.4 158.1 220.6 688.6 763.1
as % of revenues 18.4% 18.7% 16.7% 17.2% 17.1% 17.1% 17.1% 17.1% 17.3% 17.3% 17.4% 17.5% 17.4% 17.8%
Other expense (income) - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Interest Expense 109.4 121.1 143.0 34.4 32.9 32.9 43.7 143.9 32.7 32.7 32.6 43.4 141.4 140.3
Pretax Income (excl. non-recurring items) 344.7 400.2 428.6 109.1 106.0 111.0 156.6 482.7 124.8 119.7 125.5 177.2 547.2 622.8
Provision for Income Taxes 130.0 122.2 66.7 16.5 13.6 22.2 31.3 83.6 25.0 23.9 25.1 35.4 109.4 124.6
Tax Rate 37.7% 30.6% 15.6% 15.1% 12.9% 20.0% 20.0% 17.3% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%
Total Other Items - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Reported Net Income 214.7 277.9 361.9 92.7 92.4 88.8 125.3 399.1 99.9 95.8 100.4 141.7 437.8 498.2
Reported EPS $ 4.30 $ 5.83 $ 8.35 $ 2.20 $ 2.19 $ 2.12 $ 3.02 $ 9.52 $ 2.42 $ 2.34 $ 2.47 $ 3.50 $ 10.73 $ 12.51
Total Nonrecurring Items - - 3.0 - - - - - - - - - - -
Pro-forma Net Income 214.7 277.9 364.9 92.7 92.4 88.8 125.3 399.1 99.9 95.8 100.4 141.7 437.8 498.2
Pro-forma EPS $ 4.30 $ 5.83 $ 8.42 $ 2.20 $ 2.19 $ 2.12 $ 3.02 $ 9.52 $ 2.42 $ 2.34 $ 2.47 $ 3.50 $ 10.73 $ 12.51
24.6% 35.5% 44.4% 9.8% 18.6% 8.7% 15.2% 13.2% 10.4% 6.9% 16.3% 16.0% 12.6% 16.6%
Diluted Shares Outstanding 49.9 47.7 43.4 42.2 42.2 41.9 41.5 41.9 41.2 41.0 40.7 40.5 40.8 39.8
Actual Shares Out. 48.1 43.0 41.0 40.9 41.0 40.6 40.3 40.3 40.0 39.7 39.5 39.2 39.2 38.3
Highlights
Restaurant Counts
Company-Owned Domestic 392 392 390 392 333 336 339 339 342 345 348 351 351 363
Franchised Domestic 4,979 5,195 5,486 5,511 5,613 5,666 5,771 5,771 5,793 5,831 5,889 6,018 6,018 6,285
Franchised International 8,440 9,269 10,038 10,211 10,369 10,569 10,913 10,913 11,048 11,218 11,428 11,813 11,813 12,753
Total 13,811 14,856 15,914 16,114 16,315 16,571 17,023 17,023 17,183 17,394 17,665 18,182 18,182 19,401
Franchise Mix 97.2% 97.4% 97.5% 97.6% 98.0% 98.0% 98.0% 98.0% 98.0% 98.0% 98.0% 98.1% 98.1% 98.1%
Same Store Sales

Company-Owned Domestic 10.4% 8.9% 4.9% 2.1% 2.1% 1.0% 1.5% 1.7% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Franchised Domestic 10.5% 7.6% 6.8% 4.1% 3.1% 2.5% 2.0% 2.9% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
Franchised International 6.3% 3.5% 3.6% 1.8% 2.4% 3.0% 4.0% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Blended Franchised 8.3% 5.5% 5.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.8% 3.1% 2.9% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%
Blended Total 8.4% 5.6% 5.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 3.0% 2.8% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%
26 COWEN.COM
Appendix: Full Data Behind iSpot.TV and Promotional Facebook Posts
Appendix: iSpot.TV Data
DoorDash First Airing Last Airing Airings Days Airings per Day Time (S)
Pop-up 5/19/2019 9/1/2019 4042 106 38 30
Wherever you are 7/7/2019 9/1/2019 1421 57 25 30
At your fingertips 4/14/2019 5/12/2019 2874 29 99 30
Delicious at your door 1/13/2019 4/6/2019 3242 84 39 30
Delicious at your door: No Fee 2/7/2019 4/5/2019 381 58 7 30
Hooters stuffed wings 2/26/2019 6/26/2019 11 121 0 30
Wendys Eyes on the game 10/17/2018 12/1/2018 201 46 4 15
Wendys baconator: Doordash without moving a muscle 1/24/2019 1/26/2019 4 3 1 15
Wendys on saturdays doordash delivers wendys 8/27/2018 10/21/2018 375 56 7 15
Grubhub First Airing Last Airing Airings Days Airings per Day Time (S)
Crave it All - Queen 4/7/2019 9/1/2019 15878 148 107 30
I want it all - Queen 1/13/2019 9/1/2019 32928 232 142 30
I want it all : $10 off 5/5/2019 6/30/2019 5505 57 97 30
Meeting the Parents - Queen 6/16/2019 9/1/2019 1047 78 13 15
I want it all: Free Delivery 5/5/2019 6/29/2019 486 56 9 30
Any food your heart and stomach desire - DNCE 8/15/2018 2/16/2019 14590 186 78 15
Windstorm 11/23/2017 5/11/2019 2510 535 5 15
Hundreds of Options 11/23/2017 7/31/2019 2511 616 4 15
First Order - DNCE 11/18/2018 12/2/2018 826 15 55 15
Behind Every Order - DNCE 4/10/2018 10/28/2018 11652 202 58 30
Local Restaurants - DNCE 8/15/2018 12/1/2018 942 109 9 15
That's it - DNCE 8/15/2018 10/28/2018 1668 75 22 15
Behind your order 4/29/2018 6/23/2018 220 56 4 30
Birthday Party 3/21/2018 5/6/2018 542 47 12 15
Doppelganger 3/21/2018 5/7/2018 517 48 11 15
Postmates First Airing Last Airing Airings Days Airings per Day Time (S)
Martha Stewart Pasta Carbonara 5/21/2019 8/3/2019 947 75 13 30
Martha Stewart Spicy Mexican Salsa 6/19/2019 8/4/2019 578 47 12 15
Martha Stewart Thai Chicken Wings 5/26/2019 8/4/2019 1120 71 16 15
Martha Stewart How to Make Thai Chicken Wings: $100 Credit 5/26/2019 6/23/2019 546 29 19 15
Martha Stewart Grilled Salmon 6/19/2019 6/23/2019 28 5 6 15
Martha Stewart Spaghetti 6/19/2019 6/23/2019 26 5 5 15
Long Day Relief 3/12/2019 3/30/2019 68 19 4 15
Champagne 3/12/2019 3/30/2019 59 19 3 15
Your Winner 2/23/2019 2/23/2019 3 1 3 15
Uber Eats First Airing Last Airing Airings Days Airings per Day Time (S)
McDonald's $5 Off (spanish) 8/18/2019 9/1/2019 1101 15 73 30
McDonald's $5 Off 8/18/2019 9/1/2019 2772 15 185 30
McDelivery Doorbell 5/14/2019 6/30/2019 1924 48 40 30
mais que comida (spanish) 5/28/2019 6/30/2019 1743 34 51 30
More than Food 5/28/2019 6/29/2019 227 33 7 30
Mais que comida: cuota de servicio 6/16/2019 6/23/2019 308 8 39 15
McDelivery Doorbell: $0 Delivery Fee 6/16/2019 6/30/2019 104 15 7 30
March Madness Randy Watkins 3/16/2019 4/5/2019 30 21 1 30
Zebras 3/18/2019 4/5/2019 15 19 1 30
Nicknames 3/18/2019 4/5/2019 5 19 0 30
Sweet Sixteen 3/18/2019 3/28/2019 12 11 1 30
Jersey Mikes - Living Room 12/31/2018 4/30/2019 531 121 4 15
Fanboy 3/29/2019 4/5/2019 3 8 0 30
Jersey Mikes - $10 off 1/9/2019 4/3/2019 692 85 8 15
Jersey Mikes - Award 10/26/2018 3/22/2019 351 148 2 15
Hooters - buddies football 10/12/2018 10/14/2018 20 3 7 30
Hooters - girl shock 10/12/2018 10/13/2018 17 2 9 30
MCD Big Night In 9/3/2017 3/24/2018 99 203 0 30
Source: Cowen and Company, Ispot.TV
COWEN.COM 27
Appendix: DoorDash Facebook Promotions
Date # of Likes # of Comments Post Name
8/12/2019 15 25 Craving The Cheesecake Factory? Indulge this week with a $0 delivery fee on all orders! No promo code needed. Now–8/18. Terms apply:https://drd.sh/ZzzuZx/
8/8/2019 103 134 Can you tell the difference? Get a $0 delivery fee when you order the $7Burger King Taste Test Bag (Impossible™ WHOPPER® and original WHOPPER®) Now–9/1 with code IMPOSSIBLE. No min. order. Terms:https://drd.sh/6uCCXX/
8/6/2019 65 89 Our idea of a perfect night? Dinner and a movie! Order dinner from your favorite restaurants through DoorDash and rent new (or throwback) releases from Redbox 🎬🍿
8/5/2019 59 344 DashPass just turned one! To celebrate, DashPass subscribers will score five days of FREE food, one item a day, courtesy our first-ever DashPass Deals Week. New deals kick off starting today through Friday, August 9!
8/1/2019 174 914 Grilled over an open flame for 55 minutes and cut to order. Bring family and friends together over El Pollo Loco's famous fire-grilled chicken! Enjoy a $0 delivery fee on orders $10+. No code. No brainer! And hurry—available only through 8/4. Terms apply: https
7/21/2019 115 306 🍦 Strange (but sweet) things are happening at Baskin-Robbins—today only get a Free Scoop & $0 delivery on orders $10+ for Nat’l Ice Cream Day! Use code FREESCOOP and hurry before this offer melts away!
7/16/2019 109 205 Celebrate everything bacon at Wendy’s with a FREE Junior Bacon Cheeseburger, PLUS a $0 delivery fee on orders $10+, now through July 21 (while supplies last) with code BACONFEST 🥓Terms:
7/15/2019 52 100 Welcome to the family, Kahala! Enjoy a $0 delivery fee on orders of $10 or more from your favorite brands like Baja Fresh, Cold Stone Creamery, and more! Use code KAHALA now - July 19.
7/10/2019 93 112 Strange (but sweet) things are happening at Baskin-Robbins in July. Get a $0 delivery fee on orders of $10+, now-July 31 with code STRANGERTHINGS. Grab a quart of the all new U.S.S. Butterscotch and get streaming!
7/8/2019 26 139 Sweeten up your day! Get a FREE Pizookie® from BJ's Restaurant & Brewhouse with your $19.95+ order. Use code PIZOOKIE, now–7/21.
7/4/2019 46 193 Ditch the lighter fluid and save the sparks for the fireworks—get your food for the 4th delivered! Simply order from any restaurant in our 4th of July Treats collection and then enjoy a $0 delivery fee on your orders of $15 or more with code FREEDOMRINGS
7/3/2019 50 86 Oh, say can you see a FREE slice of OREO® Dream Extreme Cheesecake from The Cheesecake Factory on orders of $17.76 or more? Yes, you can—just use code OREO, now–July 7 or while supplies last. Terms:https://drd.sh/N07QYO/
6/28/2019 111 77 Things just keep getting stranger at Burger King. Now through July 7, get a $0 delivery fee on all orders of $10+ when you use code HOPPER. Don’t forget to stream the big premiere over July 4th weekend! Terms:https://drd.sh/VPIxT6/
6/20/2019 163 115 Things just got a little stranger at BURGER KING®. Enjoy a Hopper Meal with a Coca-Cola® for $5 and a $0 delivery fee on your order of $10+ when you use code HOPPER at checkout. Terms: https://drd.sh/CuQ0oy/
6/17/2019 237 364 Chili's Grill & Bar is now available exclusively on DoorDash! To celebrate, we’re giving away up to 25,000 Oldtimer® w/Cheese burgers and a $0 delivery fee* on orders of $10 or more! Just use code OLDTIMER. Terms:https://drd.sh/uVjmPH/
6/7/2019 132 623 Like BFFs, freshly baked soft pretzels come in many flavors. And with a $0 delivery fee on Auntie Anne's orders of $10 or more, you can get a bucket for each! Original for your OG bestie, Cinnamon Sugar for your sweetest friend, or Mini Pretzel Dogs for your rid
6/5/2019 49 190 Keep the momentum going with FREE game-day delivery from Chipotle! 🌯🏀 Enjoy free delivery on Chipotle orders of $10+. With no fees at all, now–June 9. Terms apply: https://drd.sh/dLTrKl/
6/4/2019 92 117 Celebrate National Cheese Day with a FREE ULTIMATE CHEESEBURGER™ from Jack In The Box! We’ll spare you the cheesy jokes and get straight to the juicy facts. Enjoy a FREE Ultimate Cheeseburger™ from Jack In The Box, plus a $0 delivery fee, on your order
6/3/2019 66 93 Enjoy a $0 delivery fee from The Cheesecake Factory when you add any soft drink to your order through DoorDash. Just use code ENJOY at checkout. No minimum order necessary! Now–Sunday, 6/9. Terms apply:https://drd.sh/qAHYZe/
5/30/2019 102 132 Score FREE game-day delivery from Chipotle! 🌯🏀 Enjoy free delivery on Chipotle orders of $10+. With no fees at all, it’s burritos and bowls for the whole home team! Now–June 9. Terms apply: https://drd.sh/dLTrKl/
5/28/2019 67 66 The classic burger hasn't changed for over 100 years. Why? Because it. Is. Perfect. Happy National Burger Day 🍔 https://drd.sh/XOaToQ/
5/26/2019 118 96 There are only a few more days to join us in Delivering Good! Throughout the month of May, we'll donate 1 meal* through Feeding America for every new follower we get on Facebook, Twitter & Instagram. Share and tag your friends in the comments to help us
5/20/2019 100 66 Here comes the sun(dae)! Satisfy your ice cream cravings with a $0 delivery fee on Baskin-Robbins® orders of $10 or more with code SUMMERTIME, now through 5/27. It looks like a smooth ride to summer—despite that Rocky Road. Terms: https://drd.sh/O0nY
5/6/2019 77 59 Give mom a break this month with BJ’s Restaurant & Brewhouse. Get a $0 delivery fee on orders $19.95 or more, plus use code THANKSMOM to get a FREE Kids’ Meal! Now through to Sunday, May 12—because moms deserve more than one day. Terms: https://
5/5/2019 23 82 Whether the Cinco de Mayo mood calls for a quick taco fix or savory burrito bowl with allllll the toppings— get FREE delivery, today only, on Chipotle orders of $10+ Terms: https://drd.sh/Qkwa4O/
5/2/2019 76 92 What’s new and even better than room service? DoorDash, now at Wyndham! We’ve teamed up with Wyndham Rewards to bring you the restaurants you love in the comfort of your hotel room. Enjoy $0 delivery fee* on all your in-room orders at participating p
5/1/2019 236 1300 Throughout the month of May, we'll donate 1 meal* through Feeding America for every new follower we get on Facebook, Twitter & Instagram! Share, tag your friends in the comments, and join us in Delivering Good 💕Details: https://drd.sh/YwyXoD/
4/30/2019 48 102 Raise your burrito high—we’re celebrating one year of Chipotle on DoorDash! Because we wouldn’t have gotten this far without you (and your love of fresh, hand-mashed avocado), enjoy a FREE order of Chips & Guac from Chipotle with your order of $10+ with
4/21/2019 115 134 Wendy’s is bringing you the fire AND the ice for your Sunday night banquets. Get a FREE small Frosty® with your Spicy Chicken Sandwich Combo order—exclusively with DoorDash! Just use code HOUSEWENDYS at checkout. Sundays only, now through 5/19. T
4/17/2019 79 127 We’ve got something sweeter than chocolate bunnies this spring. Get a FREE slice of REESE’S Peanut Butter or HERSHEY’S Bar Cheesecake from The Cheesecake Factory with your order of $30+, now through 4/21 or while supplies last, with code the SPRINGTR
4/15/2019 160 154 The Burger King Angry WHOPPER® is baaack! Get it FREE, only on DoorDash!
4/14/2019 105 89 The mother of all (dragon) sauces is here! Just in time for tonight’s premiere,Buffalo Wild Wings is releasing a one-day only wing sauce: Dragon Fire 🔥
4/8/2019 198 205 The final games are here and Wendy's has hunger covered with the best dunking partners for FREE 🏀 Get a small Frosty® and a small fry for FREE on Wendy’s orders of $10+, just add a Fry Frosty® Slam to your order and use code FRYFROSTYSLAM
4/5/2019 84 208 Dubs game on—Score a $0 delivery fee from Jack in the Box in the Bay Area!
4/4/2019 120 308 It’s National Burrito Day! Today only, enjoy a $0 delivery fee on your Chipotle order of $10+ (that’s Math for “burrito”) 🌯🌯🌯
4/3/2019 67 149 Don’t forget, there’s still time to get a $0 delivery fee on all orders from The Cheesecake Factory! Now through 4/7. No code, no order minimum. Terms apply: https://drd.sh/11tcEt/
4/1/2019 155 377 Update: Thanks for participating! All $25 rewards have been claimed, but you can enjoy a $0 delivery fee on The Cheesecake Factory orders now through 4/7! Terms: https://drd.sh/11tcEt/
3/21/2019 188 276 What’s sweeter than the first sunny days of spring? FREE Baskin-Robbins ice cream, that’s what! Get a free Pre-Packed Quart of ice cream with your Baskin-Robbins order of $10+ 🍦☀️
3/17/2019 331 405 We’ve teamed up with Wendy’s® to satisfy your March munchies with a FREE Biggie™ Bag! 🏀That’s a free Bacon Double Stack™, free 4-pc nuggets, free small fry and free small drink—FREE with the code FREEBIGGIEBAG, now through 3/24. Plus, get a $0 deliv
3/15/2019 117 183 It’s your lucky day! Papa John’s is now on DoorDash ☘ ️ We’re now serving up hot, fresh classics: PIZZA and more from Papa John’s. Just in time for your St. Patrick’s Day pre-party, enjoy a $0 delivery fee on orders of $10 or more, now through 3/17. Terms: htt
3/11/2019 30 66 Hey, ATX! Join us and Torchy's Tacos for FREE tacos, drinks, live music, and games at our Tiny House lounge this week. 🌮🎉
3/8/2019 26 34 DoorDash X Torchy’s Tiny House Party
3/5/2019 104 182 Hey, San Francisco! Get a FREE Warriors x DoorDash hat when you order from any restaurant in our “Game Day” shop. One per order, while supplies last. Plus, enter to win a pair of tickets to watch the Warriors take on the Mavericks. Just use code GODUBS at c
3/1/2019 147 275 Guess what’s back? Spicy Chicken Nuggets from Burger King! And you can get them for FREE when you use code SPICY on your order of $5 or more from now until March 17. At participating locations. Only through DoorDash. Terms apply: https://drd.sh/c4KEk
2/8/2019 110 265 Celebrate #NationalPizzaDay in a totally new (and totally yummy) way with an IHOP #Pancizza! 🍕+ 🥞 = Pancizza, a personal pizza-sized pancake that comes in 3 flavors – Buttermilk, Bacon and Cheddar and Cupcake. Plus get a $0 delivery fee on orders over $1
2/5/2019 66 314 L.A. residents within range can get Canter’s Deli delivered with a $0 delivery fee from Feb. 4–11.
2/4/2019 47 129 Feeling the pain after the big game? Get a $0 delivery fee plus a FREE Chocolate Chunk Pizookie with every order over $19.95 from BJ's Restaurant.
2/3/2019 95 138 Overdo your football festivities? Jack in the Box has the perfect “cure”—the Super Jack’d Box, delivered exclusively through DoorDash. Order now to get your fix, or order tomorrow and you'll get $0 delivery fee on orders $10+.
1/29/2019 180 350 Bring on the Bacon! 🥓 Enjoy a FREE Baconator and $0 delivery fee with any Wendy’s order of $10+ when you use the code FREEBACONATOR at checkout, now through February 4. Limit 1 per person. While supplies last
1/24/2019 62 263 Celebrate the Big Game like a King. Get a Mystery Box by ordering Burger King on DoorDash with the promo code MYSTERYBOX and get ready for your 15 minutes of flame. $10 order min. Through 2/4 or while supplies last.
1/21/2019 110 154 Get The Cheesecake Factory delivered for $0—all. week. long! Whether you’re feeling like a slice (or five) of cheesecake or a savory snack (mmm, Loaded Baked Potato Tots…)—or both!—get it all right to your door with a $0 delivery fee. No order minimum (!) and
1/16/2019 99 252 We're here. We're there. We're EVERYWHERE! DoorDash is now available in all 50 states! To celebrate, use the code FIFTY for 50 cent delivery on orders of $10 or more--today only (while supplies last). One per person.
1/14/2019 91 130 In fact, we’re so excited about this “Delicious at Your Door” idea, we’re thrilled to share our first ever national ad campaign — TODAY!
1/14/2019 20 11 Feed Your Soul: Free Wanderlust Yoga Class + Breakfast Bites
1/1/2019 90 111 What’s better than starting the new year with Chicken Fries? FREE Chicken Fries! Just add Chicken Fries to your Burger King order of $5+ and use the code NEWYEAR at checkout to get them for free, now through 1/6
12/22/2018 35 27 Want $5 (or more!) in DoorDash credit? 🎁 Switch to Mastercard® on DoorDash and get a $5 credit every time you use your Mastercard for orders until 12/26.
12/21/2018 57 121 GIVEAWAY! To celebrate the official start of winter, we’re giving away $250 for you to stay in and order your favorite comfort foods with.
12/17/2018 50 74 Jack in the Box’s Turkey, Bacon & Cheddar Pannido™ and Deli Trio Pannido™ now come delivered in a convenient no-mess bag. That means you can take this sandwich with you anywhere. Your couch, your cubicle, your grandma’s don’t-touch-the-special-china d
12/15/2018 17 33 These Warriors tix are still up for grabs, but not for much longer! Place a Pickup order with the code DUBSPICKUP to be entered to win those tickets to see the Golden State Warriors vs. the Boston Celtics!
12/11/2018 20 49 The heat is on! 🔥 In San Francisco’s Mission District, @PiriPica is spicing things up with their insanely flavorful, Portuguese-style grilled chicken. Try ’em out with $0 delivery fees, automatically applied now through 12/16 when you order Piri Pica on DoorDash
12/6/2018 20 26 The Pickup game is on! Just order your favorite eats using Pickup and use the code DUBSPICKUP to be entered to win tickets to see the Golden State Warriors vs. the Boston Celtics. No purchase necessary. Bay Area residents only. Ends 12/17.
12/5/2018 82 431 The Day of 40,000 Slices is here! Get a 100% FREE slice of cheesecake from The Cheesecake Factory and DoorDash. 🍰 Starts 11:30am local time. No fees or minimum order. Just use code FREESLICE Plus, enjoy a $0 delivery fee on The Cheesecake Factory orde
12/3/2018 146 158 In just TWO DAYS we’re joining forces with The Cheesecake Factory to give away 40,000 slices of completely FREE cheesecake. Starts at 11:30am local time. Get excited.
12/1/2018 394 898 Throughout the month of December, we'll fund 1 meal through Feeding America for every new follower we get on Facebook, Twitter & Instagram! Will you tag your friends and join us in #DeliveringGood?
11/29/2018 37 64 Now everyone in the family can enjoy a meal together 🐶🍔 Get a free Dogpper with your Burger King order of The WHOPPER® + Dogpper combo, while supplies last! Plus, new customers get a $0 delivery fee on orders $10 or more with code DOGPPER now –
11/28/2018 42 32 Your morning just got a hole lot better 🍩 LA’s iconic donut shop is now on DoorDash! To celebrate, you can get one dozen glazed Randy's Rounds for free when you order from Randy's Donuts. First 200 orders only, $0 delivery fee until 11am PST 11/28.
11/23/2018 46 110 Black Fryday STARTS NOW! 🍟 Get a FREE order of fries when you order $5 or more from select partners with code BLACKFRYDAY and add fries to your order, first 15,000 orders only. Details and terms:
11/18/2018 16 27 There’s STILL time to score some Warriors tickets! 🏀 Enter now by placing a DoorDash order and using the code DDGODUBS. No purchase necessary. Bay Area residents only. Ends Monday, 11/19.
11/5/2018 35 92 Game on, Bay Area! Your next order could win you a pair of tickets to see the Warriors play the Rockets on 1/3! Enter by placing a DoorDash order and using the code DDGODUBS. No purchase necessary. Bay Area residents only. Ends 11/19.
10/31/2018 26 34 The Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Phoenix Dash-oween stores are now open! 👻🎃 Claim your FREE Spooktacular Treat before it vanishes...
10/31/2018 21 27 Happy Dash-oween! 🎃 To celebrate, we're offering a FREE Spooktacular Treat while supplies last. Simply open up DoorDash and look for The Dash-oween store between your local hours of 2– 4pm. The store will be live in the following spooky cities: Atlanta,
10/29/2018 31 97 No tricks here—just treats! Now through October 31, enjoy one FREE* slice of Reese’s Peanut Butter Chocolate Cake Cheesecake or Hershey’s Chocolate Bar Cheesecake with your order of $30 or more from The Cheesecake Factory. Just add one of these slices to
10/20/2018 57 122 Today only, while supplies last! This Saturday, October 20th, get a FREE BURGER KING® WHOPPER® Sandwich, on us! Just add a WHOPPER® Sandwich to your DoorDash order cart of $10 or more and use promo code BKSATURDAY to make the WHOPPER® Sa
10/6/2018 60 82 Unlimited deliveries-minus the delivery fees. Now’s your chance to try DashPass free for one week! Sign up for your free trial now through 10/31 and enjoy no delivery fees on qualifying orders of $15 or more:
10/5/2018 13 46 Huge game tonight! Get ready for it by adding an ice-cold Coke to your DoorDash order and receive a promo code for 20% off at mlbshop.com. Use promo code BASEBALL to enter. Play ball!
10/1/2018 33 109 Order Pizzaoki through DoorDash and enter the promo code AOKIVEGAS at checkout to enter, or send an email to sweepstakes@doordash.com. Now, get that Halloween costume ready.
9/20/2018 40 264 In honor of #HungerActionMonth, we're donating a meal for every new DashPass subscription. DashPass gets you $0 delivery fees, and when you sign up for DashPass before 9/30/18, you can help us deliver even more meals to those in need. Together, we're #
9/12/2018 71 415 September’s finally here and that means football and homework. Who wants to be bothered making dinner when there’s so much to do?Relax—BJ's Restaurant & Brewhouse has you covered. And when you include an ice-cold Pepsi with your minimum $15 orde
9/6/2018 79 303 It’s #HungerActionMonth! Throughout the month of September, whenever you order from The Cheesecake Factory or Grand Lux Cafe through DoorDash, a meal will be donated to Feeding America, the nation’s largest domestic hunger-relief organization.
8/30/2018 50 345 Want a chill weekend that doesn't involve grill fires and burnt burgers? Order some juicy, flame-grilled Whopper® Sandwiches from Burger King and you’ll be the hero of the backyard BBQ. We're waiving delivery fees when you order from participating BK® resta
8/27/2018 48 136 Cheddar makes things better! For today only, 8/27, when you order fromRed Lobster, you’ll get not two, but SIX free Cheddar Bay Biscuits at no additional charge. On top of that, you’ll get your mouthwatering order from Red Lobster delivered with $0 delivery
8/8/2018 95 505 Oh, hey, delivery lovers! Introducing DashPass, the ultimate subscription! Sign up and you’re in for unlimited deliveries on hundreds of restaurants with no delivery fee! Only $9.99/month. Look for restaurants with the little blue checkmark and order at least $15
8/3/2018 45 138 Get deliciousness delivered straight to your doorstep! The Cheesecake Factory x DoorDash has been going strong for two years now, and we're celebrating with $0 delivery fees on your orders now through Sunday, no promo code needed!
8/1/2018 36 70 DAVE'S DOUBLE DOES DELIVERY. Who doesn’t love a Dave’s Double, delivered fresh from Wendy’s? It’s even better if it’s delivered for FREE! This month, use the code DAVE to get your Dave’s Double (or Dave’s Single or Dave’s Triple) delivered to your door. Ord
5/7/2018 26 154 In case you missed it, you can now get #ChipotleDelivered on DoorDash. We’re continuing the excitement this week with no delivery fees*! Use code GETCHIPOTLE on your Chipotle Mexican Grill order now through 5/13. 🌯🥗 Taxes, fees, and gratuity apply.
5/2/2018 23 42 To celebrate, get FREE delivery on your Chipotle Mexican Grill order on DoorDash now through 5/6 with code GETCHIPOTLE. #ChipotleDelivered
5/1/2018 35 85 Use code GETCHIPOTLE and get FREE delivery on your Chipotle Mexican Grill order now through 5/6. 🌯🥗
4/30/2018 39 39 Free Chipotle Delivery
28 COWEN.COM
Figure 28 Appendix: DoorDash Facebook Promotions
4/19/2018 18 29 Order The Cheesecake Factory on DoorDash through 4/20, and you'll get FREE delivery and be entered to win a year of FREE food, delivered! 🙌We'll draw 1 winner each day! 🍰
4/17/2018 16 12 Win a year of The Cheesecake Factory—delivered to your door. 🍰🎉 To enter for a chance to win, just order The Cheesecake Factory on DoorDash from 4/17–4/20. One lucky winner will be chosen each day (whoo-hoo)!
4/16/2018 36 41 How does a year of FREE food from The Cheesecake Factory sound? Place an order from The Cheesecake Factory through DoorDash by 4/20 to enter to win. Plus, get FREE delivery on all orders from The Cheesecake Factory through 4/20!
4/11/2018 259 27 Getting excited for the FIFA World Cup? ⚽️🙌 Order any Coca-Cola product now through April 18 and you’ll get 2 free tickets to the 2018 FIFA FIFA World Cup Trophy Tour by Coca-Cola! 🏆 Terms → drd.sh/NAE0kq
4/5/2018 47 165 It’s #NationalDeepDishPizzaDay (yes, it’s a thing), and we’re teaming up with BJ's Restaurant and Brewhouse to give away 30,000 mini deep dish pizzas. For FREE. 🍕🍕🍕 Here’s how to get yours. #DeepDishDash
4/4/2018 43 50 Here's how to get your FREE deep dish pizza from BJ's Restaurant and Brewhouse tomorrow for #NationalDeepDishPizzaDay. 🍕🍕🍕
2/14/2018 30 77 We're sharing a little love with a #ValentinesDay giveaway! 💕 Head to our Insta 👉 drd.sh/0zzzl8/ 👈 and you and a friend could BOTH win $100 in DoorDash credits.
2/4/2018 21 29 Getting ready for your #BigGame party! Wendy's delivery is FREE today. Get their new crowd-pleasing bundles delivered!
2/2/2018 28 15 Exciting news! Get FREE delivery on all orders from The Cheesecake Factory through 2/7. 🍰🍰🍰 Taxes and fees apply. See full details here 👉drd.sh/TmhIxf/
2/1/2018 31 30 Exciting news for your #BigGame party! Wendy's delivery is FREE this Sunday. Check out their new crowd-pleasing bundles, and get them delivered!
1/23/2018 36 21 @happyandhealthy96 knows how to do a cozy day in. 🍕🛏 Follow us on Instagram and tag your photos with #MyDoorDash—and you could win a month of FREE deliveries!
12/19/2017 16 3 Make it a cherry-on-top kind of day. 🍒🍨 Get FREE delivery from Jack in the Box on all orders over $10 through 12/25.
12/10/2017 12 34 FREE delivery from The Cheesecake Factory continues through December 12! 🙌 No promo required. Order here 👉 drd.sh/5JBWLn/
12/6/2017 58 124 We’ve officially delivered all #10000Slices 🍰🍰🍰 of free cheesecake. If you didn’t get a free slice, you can still get FREE delivery on all orders fromThe Cheesecake Factory through 12/12! No promo required. Order here 👉drd.sh/5JBWLn/
12/6/2017 61 144 The Day of #10000Slices has arrived! We're kicking off a week of FREE delivery from The Cheesecake Factory 🍰🍰🍰 by giving away 10,000 FREE slices of cheesecake—today only! Just open the app and use code 10000SLICES if you're near a location to get y
11/22/2017 25 103 It's Turkey Day tomorrow! 🦃🦃🦃 Don't stress—order in from one of your favorite restaurants. Use code GIVETHANKS and get $10 off your order when you spend $40 or more—today only. 🙌
10/31/2017 18 25 Aghhhhh! We've got something to scream about. 😱 Get FREE delivery today until midnight when you spend $30 or more. Use code HALLOWEEN17 at checkout. 🎃👻😈
10/23/2017 43 27 We've teamed up with The Cheesecake Factory to offer discounted delivery 🙌 on all your favorite dishes—today through Sunday! Order now 👉drd.sh/GgfXe9/
10/21/2017 7 35 Celebrate #NationalPumpkinCheesecakeDay with a slice from The Cheesecake Factory!
9/18/2017 29 57 #ShackWeek ends with a bang—with FREE cheeseburgers 🍔🍔🍔 fromShake Shack for #NationalCheeseburgerDay. Open the app and use code SHACK if you’re near a location from 11 AM - 2 PM to get your free cheeseburger + free delivery.
9/16/2017 13 14 FREE delivery + Shake Shack 🍔🍟 = the best weekend ever. Don't miss out on free delivery from Shake Shack on orders over $12 through 9/18.#ShackWeek
9/15/2017 15 7 Current craving 👉 Double ShackBurger from Shake Shack! 🍔🍔 Get FREE delivery on orders over $12 from @shakeshack through 9/18.#NationalDoubleCheeseburgerDay #ShackWeek
9/13/2017 13 17 #ShackWeek continues with FREE delivery 🙌 from Shake Shack 🍔🍟through 9/18 when you spend $12! Don’t miss out if you’re near a location.
9/12/2017 44 53 It's #NationalChocolateMilkShakeDay 🙌 and we're teaming up with Shake Shack 🍔🍟 to deliver FREE chocolate milkshakes! Just open the app and use code SHACK from 11 AM - 2 PM local time if you're near a location to get your free chocolate milkshake + f
9/6/2017 3 3 New York and New Jersey friends—DoorDash is now available in Long Island Suffolk County, South Brooklyn, plus Central and Metro Jersey. 🙌Use code “NEWDASH5” for $5 off your first order!
9/5/2017 16 22 It's #NationalCheesePizzaDay, and we're celebrating with $10 off your pizza order today! 🍕😋
8/22/2017 20 32 We've teamed up with Jack in the Box to offer *free delivery straight to your couch, bed, table, or wherever your adventure takes you. Try all your favorites, like the Classic Buttery Jack™, their all day breakfast menu, and more. 🍔😋 *Free delivery available thr
8/21/2017 18 5 Are you in Atlanta or Miami?! Don't miss #DoorDashTastes, our first ever delivery-only Restaurant Week, today through Friday. We're offering DoorDash-only special dishes for $5 plus free delivery! 🚗💨🍝
8/16/2017 1 1 Hey, New York: We're now 🚗💨 in Long Island North Shore & Queens! New customers can use code GONYC5 for $5 off your 1st order. 🙌
8/2/2017 21 1 New users get $5 off $15 today when you order an iced latte! Use code ICEDLATTE at checkout.
7/28/2017 20 2 We've teamed up with CMT to give away $200 in DoorDash credits plus a CMT prize pack full of goodies to two lucky winners to celebrate the season premieres of Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders: Making the Team and I Love Kellie Pickler — plus a brand new episo
6/25/2017 21 5 Nothing says summer like Fresh Strawberry Cheesecake from The Cheesecake Factory. Order through June 27 and get FREE delivery at select locations!
6/24/2017 17 7 It’s the weekend—treat yourself with some OREO® Dream Extreme Cheesecake from The Cheesecake Factory. Order through June 27 and get FREE delivery at select locations!
6/22/2017 4 0 Hey NYC—we're celebrating the summer weather 🌞 with FREE delivery through the weekend from our favorite new restaurant, Sushirrito! 🍣🌯❤️
6/3/2017 76 19 How does $400 in DoorDash credit sound? It's our birthday this month, and we're celebrating with a giveaway.
6/2/2017 15 14 This month only, try #ApplePay at checkout and get free delivery on 3 orders!
5/1/2017 33 15 We're excited to announce a partnership with Wendy's! Dallas and Ohio, you get first dibs on Chicken Nuggs and Frostys to your door. At launch, the pilot will cover 135 Wendy’s restaurants across the Columbus, OH and Dallas, TX areas, with plans to expand na
2/3/2017 6 9 Get free delivery and Cinnamon Poppers on orders over $20 from Those Guys Pies - Pizza, Fingers & Cheese Steaks in Las Vegas through Sunday -- and don't forget to catch them on Diners, Drive-Ins, and Dives tonight!
1/18/2017 24 11 Heads up, 702! New customers can enjoy $5 off an order of $15 or more with the code “DASHVEGAS” through January 31st, and get free delivery on their first order for a limited time.
12/4/2016 8 0 Happy Cookie Day! Get $5 off an order of $20 or more that includes a cookie, today only. PROMO CODE: COOKIE
11/20/2016 8 4 Get free delivery through November on DoorDash orders over $15 when you pay with Android Pay. Order now!
11/8/2016 14 3 Celebrate #electionday with free delivery from Shake Shack, only on DoorDash.
10/11/2016 10 2 Stay in and let the pros handle delivery. Use code CROSSOVER for $5 off $20+ orders & watch the Brooklyn Nine-Nine & New Girl crossover event
8/26/2016 16 16 Celebrate the weekend in style! New users get $3 off their order of $15 or more today, with promo code FRIDAYLOVE ❤️ ️ 🎉
8/17/2016 17 5 Bay Area, you can now order alcohol with your DoorDash delivery! Mimosas with brunch, wine with dinner, and beer with your weekend burgers. Through August 24th, delivery is included when you spend $20 or more on any order that includes an alcoholic bev
8/16/2016 219 15 UNEVEN BARS: As you devour the Rio games, order-in to win up to $200 in DD credits! Just tag us with a pic of your food and the hashtag
8/15/2016 9 1 OH SNAP! $100 in DD credits to the best Bud bottlecap snap in the#DoorDashDecathlon
8/14/2016 11 4 DONUT HOLE IN ONE: Devour the Rio games & order-in to win up to $200 in DD credits! Just tag us with your food pic. #DoorDashDecathlon
8/11/2016 25 13 BREAKFAST IS SERVED: Devour the Rio games & order-in to win up to $200 in DD credits! Just tag us with your food #DoorDashDecathlon
8/10/2016 13 6 SWEET TASTE OF VICTORY: Watch Rhythmic Gymnastics in Rio tonight and order in to win DD credits! Tag us with your food pic for entry.#DoorDashDecathlon
8/9/2016 37 9 Sushi to dive for! Watch the games and order in OR show us your best couch dive to win DD credits! #DoorDashDecathlon
8/5/2016 11 13 Are you ready for the #DoorDashDecathlon? Order your favorite food, tune in to the Rio games, and find out how you can win $100 in DoorDash credits.http://drd.sh/LaazwA/
8/1/2016 14 5 Hey New York, you can now get Dunkin' Donuts delivered through DoorDash! Free delivery at participating Dunkin’ stores through the end of the week for Manhattan & Brookylnites to celebrate.
7/21/2016 9 2 Bringing the #SausageParty to you #SDCC2016! Spot the#FreeYourSausage pedicab for FREE @DogHausDogs + movie swag. You might even get a chance to go to the #SausagePartyMovie pre-party and screening tonight!
7/19/2016 10 8 ICYMI: enter our #WorldEmojiDay contest! Like our post and comment with your answer for a chance to win $40 in DD credits. Shoutout to Cups and Cakes Bakery for providing us with nomzy, cute cakes.
7/18/2016 29 30 We're not ready to let World Emoji Day end...so we decided to extend the fun with a little contest. Remember those SAT word problems? Here's a fun throwback for you! Rules: Like this post and comment with your answer for a chance to win $40 in DoorDash
7/13/2016 12 4 Nashville, we're here! Starting today, order in using our app or site. Until 7/20, delivery fee will be waived, and through the end of August you can use code: NASHDASH for an additional $10 off. Get to dashin'!
6/30/2016 7 3 Today's the last day, use code: DDAPPLE3 for $3 off your order when you pay with Apple Pay! No minimum required. Cheers!
6/29/2016 171 54 Today's the last day, use code: DDAPPLE3 for $3 off your order when you pay with Apple Pay! No minimum required. Cheers!
6/21/2016 586 26 We're so thrilled! It's our third birthday and we want to thank you for all your support. $3 off your delivery of $20 or more for the rest of June with the code: DDTURNS3.
6/11/2016 3 5 Cheers to the weekend! Pay with Android Pay and get $5 off your order.
6/10/2016 8 8 $7 for you. $7 for them. Friends for life. We bring you happiness, share the love.
2/19/2016 12 8 We're celebrating our one year anniversary in #SanFrancisco with $1 deliveries from select restaurants. Just look for stores with the red check mark at www.doordash.com.
COWEN.COM 29
VALUATION METHODOLOGY AND RISKS
Valuation Methodology
Restaurants:
Our valuation methodology is primarily based on Price-to-Earnings (P/E), followed by
Enterprise Value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) and Free Cash Flow Yield (FCF Yield). We may also
incorporate DCF analysis for nascent businesses that we believe are trading on fundamentals
and anticipated EBITDA/profits figures several years in the future. In cases where GAAP
EBITDA or EPS include one-time or non-core items, we may uses non-GAAP, adjusted
estimates.
Investment Risks
Restaurants:
Risks to the companies in our sector include risks and uncertainties associated with the
global economic environment and consumer spending, as well as general competition
given the fragmented and low-barriers-to-entry nature of the industry. Restaurant sales
are sensitive to changes in disposable income and job growth, while costs are subject to
fluctuations in commodity prices as well as labor from minimum wage increases and other
benefits, namely health care. Execution flaws and the departure of certain key executives
may negatively affect performance and financial results. Legal, regulatory, political, currency,
and economic risks, as well as changes in consumer tastes, may affect the ability to conduct
business in both domestic and international markets.
Risks To The Price Target
(1) Deterioration in macroeconomic conditions; (2) DPZ donates delivery share to 3rd party
providers; (3) Pizza Hut and/or Papa John's re-emerge from recent sales troubles; (4) growth
rate in digital ordering slows significantly
30 COWEN.COM
ADDENDUM
Stocks Mentioned In Important Disclosures
Ticker Company Name
DPZ Domino's Pizza
QSR Restaurant Brands International
WEN The Wendy's Company
WING Wingstop
Analyst Certification
Each author of this research report hereby certifies that (i) the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject
securities or issuers, and (ii) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be related, directly or indirectly, to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Important Disclosures
Cowen and Company, LLC and or its affiliates make a market in the stock of Domino's Pizza, Restaurant Brands International, The Wendy's Company and Wingstop securities.
Cowen and Company, LLC compensates research analysts for activities and services intended to benefit the firm's investor clients. Individual compensation determinations for research
analysts, including the author(s) of this report, are based on a variety of factors, including the overall profitability of the firm and the total revenue derived from all sources, including
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banking transactions or specific sales and trading or principal trading revenues.
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COWEN.COM 31
Additionally, the complete preceding 12-month recommendations history related to recommendation in this research report is available at https://cowen.bluematrix.com/sellside/
Disclosures.action
The recommendation contained in this report was produced at September 02, 2019, 22:57 ET. and disseminated at September 03, 2019, 06:00 ET.
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COWEN AND COMPANY EQUITY RESEARCH RATING DEFINITIONS
Outperform (1): The stock is expected to achieve a total positive return of at least 15% over the next 12 months
Market Perform (2): The stock is expected to have a total return that falls between the parameters of an Outperform and Underperform over the next 12 months
Underperform (3): Stock is expected to achieve a total negative return of at least 10% over the next 12 months
Assumption: The expected total return calculation includes anticipated dividend yield
Cowen and Company Equity Research Rating Distribution

Distribution of Ratings/Investment Banking Services (IB) as of 06/30/19
Rating Count Ratings Distribution Count IB Services/Past 12 Months
Buy (a) 495 63.38% 114 23.03%
Hold (b) 279 35.72% 14 5.02%
Sell (c) 7 0.90% 0 0.00%
(a) Corresponds to "Outperform" rated stocks as defined in Cowen and Company, LLC's equity research rating definitions. (b) Corresponds to "Market Perform" as defined in Cowen
and Company, LLC's equity research ratings definitions. (c) Corresponds to "Underperform" as defined in Cowen and Company, LLC's equity research ratings definitions. Cowen and
Company Equity Research Rating Distribution Table does not include any company for which the equity research rating is currently suspended or any debt security followed by Cowen
Credit Research and Trading.
Note: "Buy", "Hold" and "Sell" are not terms that Cowen and Company, LLC uses in its ratings system and should not be construed as investment options. Rather, these ratings terms
are used illustratively to comply with FINRA regulation.
Domino's Pizza Rating History as of 09/02/2019

powered by: BlueMatrix
I:(1):$290.00 (1):$295.00 (1):$330.00 (1):$290.00
01/11/19 02/21/19 04/24/19 07/16/19
350
300
250
200
150
100
Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Oct 17 Jan 18 Apr 18 Jul 18 Oct 18 Jan 19 Apr 19 Jul 19
Closing Price Target Price
Initiated Coverage - 1/14/2008 - Neutral Rating
32 COWEN.COM
Restaurant Brands International Rating History as of 09/02/2019
(2):$43.00 (2):$51.00 (2):$52.00 (2):$54.00 (2):$72.00 (2):$69.00 (2):$64.00 (1):$74.00 (1):$71.00 (1):$75.00 (1):$78.00 (1):$85.00
10/24/16 02/14/17 02/21/17 04/26/17 10/26/17 02/13/18 04/18/18 07/17/18 12/06/18 02/12/19 07/17/19 08/02/19
90
80
70
60
50
40
The Wendy's Company Rating History as of 09/02/2019

I:(1):$21.00 (1):$22.00
04/10/19 05/08/19
24
22
20
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Wingstop Rating History as of 09/02/2019

(1):$36.00 (1):$37.00 (1):$41.00 (1):$46.00 (1):$51.00 (1):$53.00 (1):$56.00 (1):$60.00 (1):$71.00 (1):$75.00 (1):$77.00 (1):$83.00 (1):$102.00 (1):$104.00
05/05/17 07/12/17 11/22/17 01/08/18 02/06/18 04/25/18 05/04/18 08/03/18 09/07/18 10/05/18 01/14/19 05/02/19 06/26/19 08/01/19
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Legend for Price Chart:

I = Initiation | 1 = Outperform | 2 = Market Perform | 3 = Underperform | UR = Price Target Under Review | T = Terminated Coverage | $xx = Price Target | NA = Not Available |
S=Suspended
COWEN.COM 33
POINTS OF CONTACT
Analyst Profiles
Andrew M. Charles, CFA Thomas Champion Brian Vieten, CFA

New York New York New York
646 562 1332 646 562 1365 646 562 1341
andrew.charles@cowen.com thomas.champion@cowen.com brian.vieten@cowen.com
Andrew Charles is an analyst focused on Tom Champion is a member of the Internet Brian Vieten is an associate covering the
restaurants. He has spent over seven years team. He has been in research since 2006, restaurant sector. He joined Cowen in 2018
on the sell side covering the sector. and worked in IB and at a technology and is a graduate of Boston College.
startup previously.
Andrew Crespo
New York
646 562 1361
andrew.crespo@cowen.com
Andrew Crespo is an associate covering

the restaurant sector. He joined Cowen in
2018 and is a graduate of Saint Joseph's
University.
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Domino'S Pizza: Third-Party Delivery Data Trackers Lack Reason To Hail To The Victors

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Restaurants

EQUITY RESEARCH TARGET UPDATE

Price: $226.84 (09/2/2019) THIRD-PARTY DELIVERY DATA TRACKERS LACK

Andrew M. Charles, CFA THE COWEN INSIGHT

Please see pages 30 to 34 of this report for important disclosures. COWEN.COM

Base Case Assumptions Upside Scenario Downside Scenario

Price Performance Company Description

220 Analyst Top Picks

200 Ticker Price (09/2/2019) Price Target Rating

Updating Our 2019-21E EPS, With Lower Quality Inputs

A Data Driven Look at Domino’s Third-Party Competitive Set

Source: Cowen and Company, Cowen Consumer Tracker

Source: Cowen and Company, Cowen Consumer Tracker

Source: Cowen and Company

Source: Cowen and Company

We expect third-party delivery tailwinds from increasing U.S. household coverage to

Total Big 4 DoorDash Grubhub Postmates Uber Eats

Figure 7 Number of National TV Advertisement Airings (per iSpot.TV)

Source: Cowen and Company, iSpot.TV

Figure 8 Grubhub Marketing Spend Accelerated in 4Q18-2Q19

Facebook Data Suggest DoorDash Promos Are Accelerating to a Wider Audience

Figure 9 Count of DoorDash Facebook Promotional Posts

We note the acceleration in DoorDash promotions is even more apparent when

Source: Cowen and Company, Facebook

Time to Make a New Plan, Stan

We maintain our consensus-matching 4% same store sales estimate in 2020, which

Subscription/Membership Model Unlikely for Domino's

views a price increase as a last resort. Anecdotally, in recent memory we point to

International Development Impressive in 1H19, Prompting Us to Raise 2019-21E

Figure 15 Domino’s Long-Term Top Line Guidance History

2020E EBITDA $761 $2,435 $2,224

Figure 17 …As Well As on a 2020E EV/EBITDA Basis...

Figure 18 …Despite a Still Superior 2019E-21E System Sales Growth Profile

Global Net Restaurant Growth

Global Same Store Sales + Global Net Restaurant Growth

Amid what could be a sustained period of same store sales underperformance, we

MCD YUM QSR DPZ DNKN WEN PZZA JACK

Opportunities to Recapitalize as Soon as The Start of 2020

Figure 20 Scenario 1: Raise $700 Million in 1Q20 and Pursue ASR

Figure 21 Scenario 2: Raise $1,150 Million in 1Q21 and Pursue ASR

We previously valued Domino’s based on the low-end of Domino's historic FY1

Figure 22 Domino’s System Sales Profile Outpaces MCD and YUM

Global Net Restaurant Growth

Global Same Store Sales + Global Net Restaurant Growth

Figure 24 Five Year FY 1 EV/EBITDA; Average = 18.3x

Source: Bloomberg, Cowen and Company

Figure 25 Five Year FY 1 P/E; Average = 29.2x

Source: Bloomberg, Cowen and Company

Domino’s Remains a Take-Out Candidate

Figure 27 Domino’s Income Statement

Other expense (income) - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Total Other Items - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Total Nonrecurring Items - - 3.0 - - - - - - - - - - -

Same Store Sales

Source: Cowen and Company, Company reports

Appendix: Full Data Behind iSpot.TV and Promotional Facebook Posts

Appendix: DoorDash Facebook Promotions

Source: Cowen and Company, Facebook

Figure 28 Appendix: DoorDash Facebook Promotions

Source: Cowen and Company, Facebook

VALUATION METHODOLOGY AND RISKS

Risks To The Price Target

COWEN AND COMPANY EQUITY RESEARCH RATING DEFINITIONS