Sure Dividend 202001 January 2020 Newsletter A5XY PDF

Sure Dividend
LONG-TERM INVESTING IN HIGH-QUALITY DIVIDEND STOCKS
January 2020 Edition

By Ben Reynolds, Nick McCullum, and Bob Ciura
Edited by Brad Beams
Published on January 5th, 2020
Return to Top 10 List

Table of Contents
Opening Thoughts - The 2010s: A Decade in Review - ............................................................ 3

Sell Recommendations: Illinois Tool Works (ITW) and Deere & Co. (DE) .......................... 4
The Sure Dividend Top 10 – January 2020 ................................................................................ 5
Analysis of Top 10 Stocks ............................................................................................................. 6
Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (WBA) ...................................................................................... 6
Bank OZK (OZK) ..................................................................................................................... 11
AT&T Inc. (T) .......................................................................................................................... 16
M&T Bank Corp. (MTB).......................................................................................................... 21
Whirlpool Corp. (WHR) ........................................................................................................... 26
Altria Grp. Inc. (MO) ................................................................................................................ 31
Cummins Inc. (CMI)................................................................................................................. 36
People’s United Financial Inc. (PBCT) .................................................................................... 41
Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT) ................................................................................................. 46
International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) ......................................................................... 51
Closing Thoughts - Predictions for the 2020s - ........................................................................ 56
Real Money Portfolio .................................................................................................................. 58
Buying & Ranking Criteria ....................................................................................................... 59
Portfolio Building Guide ............................................................................................................ 60
Examples ................................................................................................................................... 60
Past Recommendations & Sells ................................................................................................. 61
Sell Rules .................................................................................................................................. 61
Unsold Past Recommendations ................................................................................................ 61
Pending Sells............................................................................................................................. 63
Sold Positions ........................................................................................................................... 64
List of Stocks by Dividend Risk Score ...................................................................................... 65
List of Stocks by Sector .............................................................................................................. 71

Opening Thoughts
- The 2010s: A Decade in Review -
By most measures, the 2010s were a phenomenal decade to be a stock market investor. In this month’s
Opening Thoughts, we wanted to briefly review the 2010s before following up in our Closing Thoughts
with some reasonable expectations for the decade ahead.
First, let’s consider the broad stock market’s performance since 2010:
Source: Fortune
This chart provides a number of interesting takeaways. First of all, it is noteworthy that only one year
of the last decade saw negative returns for the S&P 500. The underlying economy here in the U.S. was
even more extraordinary. The 2010s was the first decade without an economic recession since data
began being tracked back in the 1850s.
What drove this strong performance? There were a number of important factors, including a
significant tax cut in late 2017, meaningful amounts of quantitative easing throughout the decade, low
interest rates, and the almost unbelievable growth demonstrated by the large cap technology sector.
The importance of that last point is hard to overstate. The combined market capitalization of Apple,
Amazon, Microsoft, and Google (or Alphabet today) was $716 billion at the start of the decade. That
combined market capitalization has grown to $4.4 trillion. Said differently, these companies have
created nearly $4 trillion of value over the last decade.
As growth stocks have outperformed, value stocks significantly underperformed. Through January 2nd,
2020, the Russell 1000 Growth Index has returned 253.9% over the last decade, nearly doubling the
138.0% return of the Russell 1000 Value Index.
And value stocks have not been the only historically strong asset class to underperform during the last
decade. Emerging markets stocks returned 38% during the 2010s, compared to the 246% return of the
S&P 500.
Clearly, many empirically-tested investment strategies have underperformed over the last decade. The
underperformance of these asset classes makes their mean reversion likely over the next decade, which
is a topic we explore in this month’s Closing Thoughts.

Sell Recommendations:
Illinois Tool Works (ITW) and Deere & Co. (DE)
We are issuing sell recommendations active as of Monday, January 6 th for both Illinois Tool Works
(ITW) and Deere & Co. (DE).
Note: Data for this page is from early in the day on 1/2/20 and from the Sure Analysis Research
Database of 12/31/19.
Illinois Tool Works Sell Analysis
We first recommended Illinois Tool Works as a buy in the November 2018 edition of The Sure
Dividend Newsletter, where Illinois Tool Works was ranked 1st on our Top 10 list for the month.
It’s been a little over a year since our initial Illinois Tool Works recommendation. In that time, the
security has gone on to generate total returns of 42.8%. For comparison, The S&P 500 as measured by
the ETF SPY has generated total returns of 21.3% over the same time period. Our Illinois Tool Works
recommendation has significantly outperformed the market.
Illinois Tool Works traded for a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.0 using expected fiscal 2018 earnings-per-
share of $7.60 when we first recommended it. The security is now trading for a price-to-earnings ratio
of 23.3 using expected fiscal 2019 earnings-per-share of $7.70. That’s a 37% increase in the valuation
multiple in a little over a year.
We believe a fair price-to-earnings ratio for Illinois Tool Works is around 17 based on its historical
average price-to-earnings ratio over the last decade. The company looks significantly overvalued at
current prices.
This overvaluation dampens the expected returns of ITW’s stock. All told, we expect total returns of
~2% annually going forward. As a result, we recommend investors sell their shares of Illinois Tool
Works now to lock in gains and invest in a dividend growth stock with better expected total returns.
Deere & Company Sell Analysis
We first recommended Deere & Company back in the January 2015 edition of The Sure Dividend
Newsletter, where it was ranked 3rd on our Top 10 list for the month.
Our Deere & Company recommendation has gone on to generate total returns of 125.8%, which
compares favorably to the S&P 500’s (as measured by the ETF SPY) performance of 77.1% over the
same time period.
We wrote the following about Deere when we first recommended it:
“Deere & Company is expected to be in a cyclical trough next year as grain prices have fallen while
farmer input costs have increased. As a result, the company is expecting EPS of about $5.22 next year
versus EPS of $8.63 in 2014.”
The company is no longer in a cyclical trough. Indeed, the company generated adjusted earnings-per-
share of $9.94 in fiscal 2019. On top of expanding earnings-per-share, Deere & Company’s price-to-
earnings ratio is currently over 17. We believe fair value is closer to a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.5.
Due to its overvaluation, we expect total returns of just 2.6% going forward for Deere & Company
stock. As a result, we recommend investors sell the security and invest in a dividend growth stock with
higher expected total returns, like any of those on this month’s Top 10 list.

The Sure Dividend Top 10 – January 2020
Div. Exp.
Fair Div. Payout Exp.
Name & Ticker Risk Price Value ETR1
Value Yield Ratio Growth
Score Ret.
Walgreens (WBA) A $59 $72 3.9% 3.1% 31% 5.0% 12.0%
Bank OZK (OZK) A $31 $39 2.4% 3.3% 28% 6.0% 11.7%
AT&T (T) B $39 $44 2.5% 5.4% 56% 4.0% 11.9%
M&T Bank (MTB) B $169 $187 2.0% 2.6% 28% 6.3% 10.9%
Whirlpool (WHR) B $146 $166 2.3% 3.2% 32% 5.0% 10.5%
Altria (MO) B $49 $48 -0.3% 6.8% 80% 4.0% 10.5%
Cummins (CMI) B $177 $202 2.5% 2.9% 34% 5.0% 10.4%
People’s United (PBCT) B $17 $18 0.8% 4.3% 53% 5.0% 10.1%
Lockheed Martin (LMT) B $399 $345 -2.9% 2.2% 41% 10.0% 9.3%
IBM (IBM) B $134 $141 0.9% 4.8% 50% 3.0% 8.7%
Notes: Data for the table above is from a spreadsheet during the past week of our Sure Analysis Research
Database and general data over the same week. ‘Div.’ stands for ‘Dividend.’ ‘Exp. Value Ret.’ means
expected returns from valuation changes. ‘Exp. Growth’ means expected annualized growth rate over the next
five years. ‘ETR’ stands for expected total returns and is the sum of the Exp. Value Ret., Div. Yield, and Exp.
Growth columns. Data in the table above might be slightly different than individual company analysis pages
due to writing the company reports throughout the week.
Disclosures: Ben Reynolds is personally long the following from this month’s Top 10: WBA, OZK, T, WHR, MO, & CMI.
Nick McCullum is personally long WBA & T. Bob Ciura is personally long MO. The Real Money Portfolio will buy
shares of MTB on Tuesday 1/7/20.
Snap-on (SNA), Caterpillar (CAT), and Comcast (CMCSA) were replaced by Altria (MO), Lockheed Martin
(LMT), and IBM (IBM) this month. Remember: stocks that fall out of the Top 10 are holds, not sells.
Of this month’s Top 10, only 8 out of 10 meet our full requirements of 10%+ expected total return and an A or
B Dividend Risk score. Lockheed Martin (LMT) and IBM (IBM) have lower expected total returns but were
included because they had the next highest expected total returns that match our strict safety criteria.
An equally weighted portfolio of the Top 10 has the following future expected total return estimate
characteristics:
Top 10 S&P 500
Dividend Yield: 3.9% 1.8%
Growth Rate: 5.3% 5.5%
Valuation Expansion: 1.4% -4.2%
Expected Annual Total Returns: 10.6% 3.1%
Note: Data for the newsletter was obtained between before market open 12/31/19 and midday 1/3/20
1 Expected Total Return here is calculated using the simplified estimated method which is the sum of valuation, dividend, and growth
returns. It does not take into account dividend growth or volatility decay.
Analysis of Top 10 Stocks
Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (WBA)
Overview & Current Events
Walgreens Boots Alliance is a pharmacy retailer with over 18,000 stores in 11 countries. The stock
currently has a $53 billion market capitalization. Walgreens has increased its dividend for 44
consecutive years, which makes it a member of the Dividend Aristocrats.
KKR & Co., a private equity and real estate investment firm that specializes in leveraged buyouts, has
formally approached Walgreens about a possible buyout. Following this announcement, analysts
estimated that somewhere between $75 and $77 might be the price needed to take Walgreens private.
If this leveraged buyout were to be completed, it would be the largest in history. This would be at least
a 20% premium to the stock’s most recent closing price, although a go-private deal is not a certainty.
In late October (10/28/19) Walgreens reported fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year financial results.
Quarterly revenue of $34 billion increased 2.6% on a constant-currency basis, while adjusted EPS
declined 2.9% year-over-year. Pharmacy sales increased 5.4% on a comparable basis, primarily due to
higher brand inflation and prescription volume growth. For the full year, Walgreens reported revenue
of $137 billion, up 5.8% on a constant-currency basis. Adjusted earnings-per-share came to $5.99, up
0.5% from the previous year. Walgreens also gave fiscal 2020 guidance, which calls for flat adjusted
earnings-per-share from fiscal 2019.
Competitive Advantages & Recession Performance
Walgreens’ competitive advantage is its leading market share. Its robust retail presence and convenient
locations encourage consumers to use Walgreens instead of its competitors. This brand strength means
customers keep coming back to Walgreens, providing the company with stable sales and growth.
Consumers are unlikely to cut spending on prescriptions and other healthcare products even during
difficult economic times which makes Walgreens very resistant to recessions. Walgreens’ adjusted
earnings-per-share declined by just 7% during 2009 and the company actually grew its adjusted
earnings-per-share from 2007 through 2010.
Growth Prospects, Valuation, & Catalyst
Walgreens has a positive long-term growth outlook. Retail Pharmacy has proven to be resistant to e-
commerce and will benefit from the aging U.S. population and rising demand for healthcare. The
company also raised its cost-cutting target to over $1.8 billion by fiscal 2022. Walgreens already
announced it will close 200 Boots stores in the U.K. and later announced the closure of 200 U.S. stores.
Walgreens is expected to generate earnings-per-share of $6.00 in fiscal 2020. Based on this, the stock
has a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.9. Walgreens is currently trading well below our fair value estimate
of 12.0. Expansion of the price-to-earnings ratio could add 3.9% to Walgreens’ annual returns. In
addition, we expect Walgreens to grow earnings by 5% per year, and the stock has a 3.1% dividend
yield. Overall, Walgreens stock has expected returns of 12.0% per year over the next 5 years.
Key Statistics, Ratios, & Metrics
Years of Dividend Increases: 44 5-Year Growth Estimate: 5%
Dividend Yield: 3.1% 5-Year Valuation Return Estimate: 3.9%
Most Recent Dividend Increase: 4.0% 5-Year CAGR Estimate: 12.0%
Estimated Fair Value: $72 Dividend Risk Score: A
Stock Price: $59 Retirement Suitability Score: A

Income Statement Metrics
Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Revenue ($B) 63.34 67.42 72.18 71.63 72.22 76.39 103.44 117.35 118.2 131.54
Gross Profit 17613 18976 20492 20342 21119 21569 26753 29874 29162 30792
Gross Margin 27.8% 28.1% 28.4% 28.4% 29.2% 28.2% 25.9% 25.5% 24.7% 23.4%
SG&A Exp. 14366 15518 16561 16878 17543 17992 22400 23910 23740 24569
D&A Exp. 975 1030 1086 1166 1283 1316 1742 1718 1654 1770
Operating Profit 3247 3458 3931 3464 3576 3577 4353 5964 5422 6223
Op. Margin 5.1% 5.1% 5.4% 4.8% 5.0% 4.7% 4.2% 5.1% 4.6% 4.7%
Net Profit 2006 2091 2714 2127 2548 1932 4220 4173 4078 5024
Net Margin 3.2% 3.1% 3.8% 3.0% 3.5% 2.5% 4.1% 3.6% 3.4% 3.8%
Free Cash Flow 2184 2730 2430 2881 3089 2787 4413 6522 5900 6898
Income Tax 1158 1282 1580 1249 1499 1526 1056 997 760 998
Balance Sheet Metrics

Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Total Assets 25142 26275 27454 33462 35481 37250 68782 72688 66009 68124
Cash & Equivalents 2087 1880 1556 1297 2106 2646 3000 9807 3301 785
Acc. Receivable 2496 2450 2497 2167 2632 3218 6849 6260 6528 6573
Inventories 6789 7378 8044 7036 6852 6076 8678 8956 8899 9565
Goodwill & Int. 2158 3001 3229 3447 3717 3539 28723 25829 25788 28697
Total Liabilities 10766 11875 12607 15226 16027 16633 37482 42407 37735 41435
Accounts Payable 4308 4585 4810 4384 4635 4315 10088 11000 12494 13566
Long-Term Debt 2351 2401 2409 5392 5047 4490 14383 19028 12935 14397
Total Equity 14376 14400 14847 18236 19454 20513 30861 29880 27466 26007
D/E Ratio 0.16 0.17 0.16 0.30 0.26 0.22 0.47 0.64 0.47 0.55
Profitability & Per Share Metrics

Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Return on Assets 8.4% 8.1% 10.1% 7.0% 7.4% 5.3% 8.0% 5.9% 5.9% 7.5%
Return on Equity 14.7% 14.5% 18.6% 12.9% 13.5% 9.7% 16.4% 13.7% 14.2% 18.8%
ROIC 12.9% 12.5% 15.9% 10.4% 10.6% 7.8% 11.9% 8.8% 9.0% 12.2%
Shares Out. 989 939 889 944 947 950 1,090 1,083 1,024 952
Revenue/Share 63.89 68.25 78.08 81.39 75.60 79.15 98.15 107.55 109.61 132.20
FCF/Share 2.20 2.76 2.63 3.27 3.23 2.89 4.19 5.98 5.47 6.93
Note: All figures in millions of U.S. Dollars unless per share or indicated otherwise.

$120
$100
$80
$60
$40
$20
$-
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) Dividend Yield History
2005
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2000

1999
Price
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Yield
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1972
4.00%
3.50%
3.00%
2.50%
2.00%
1.50%
1.00%
0.50%
0.00%
Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) Fundamentals
$6.00 100%
90%
$5.00
80%
$4.00
70%
60%
$3.00
50%
$2.00
40%
30%
$1.00
20%
$-
10%
$(1.00) 0%
1984
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2019
Payout Ratio (TTM) - right axis Dividends (TTM) - left axis Earnings (TTM) - left axis

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA): Valuation Analysis
25
21.8
20.2
20 18
16.3
16.1
15.9
14.8
15 13.9
13.2
11.5
10
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Average Annual PE Ratio Current PE 10-Year Av erage

11
Bank OZK (OZK)

Bank OZK is a $3.9 billion market cap regional bank founded in 1903 whose service territory mainly
includes Florida, N. Carolina, Georgia, Arkansas and Texas. It also has locations in five other states.
On October 17th, 2019 Bank OZK reported third-quarter results for the period ending September 30th,
2019. For the quarter, total interest income equaled $289.5 million, representing a 4.3% increase year-
over-year, with non-purchased loans leading the way. Earnings-per-share came in at $0.81 for the
quarter, a 40% increase from the same quarter last year. However, revenue and earnings-per-share both
missed analyst estimates, albeit slightly. Still, total loans increased 6% to $17.73 billion, while
tangible book value per share increased 14.5% to $26.30.
In late December, Bank OZK announced (12/30/2019) the promotion of Carmen McClennon to Chief
Retail Banking Officer. McClennon joined the company in 2019 after nearly two decades in consumer
banking leadership roles in Canada and the United States.
Looking ahead, Bank OZK is scheduled to report fourth quarter results on January 16 th, 2020.
Bank OZK is performing well in its key markets due to new branches and acquired growth. It is also
expanding into areas of higher growth, such as Texas, Florida, and California. We see Bank OZK’s
mix of core market strength and access to growth markets as a competitive advantage.
Bank OZK not only remained profitable during the Great Recession but managed to grow its earnings
as well. This performance speaks to how well-managed Bank OZK is. We believe it will withstand
the next economic downturn quite well, and potentially be an acquirer of weaker firms.
Bank OZK has a very strong history of growth, compounding earnings at a 22% annual rate from 2009
to 2018. The bank has been able to grow profits at impressive rates over time through a combination of
organic and acquired growth, and we see this continuing. We see a forward growth rate of 6%
annually in the years to come, which is low by Bank OZK’s own standards, but still acceptable.
We expect Bank OZK to earn $3.40 per share in 2019. This represents a slight reduction from $3.50
per share from the previous expectation level entering 2019 and is based on the company’s most recent
earnings results which missed analyst expectations. Still, the company expects 2019 to be another
highly profitable year, and the stock appears to be significantly undervalued. Based on expected EPS
of $3.40, shares are valued at just 8.9 times earnings.
Bank OZK’s current valuation compares very favorably to our fair value estimate of 10 and is well
below the bank’s 10-year average valuation multiple of 14.1. Should the stock revert to the fair value
multiple of 10, shareholders would see a 2.4% tailwind to annual returns. Combining this with our
estimate of 6% annual earnings growth and the 3.3% dividend yield, we see total returns of about
11.7% annually over the next five years, making Bank OZK a highly attractive dividend growth stock.
Estimated Fair Value: $39 Dividend Risk Score: A
12

Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Revenue 169 154 211 228 258 346 479 695 930 992
SG&A Exp. 59 55 75 78 84 100 111 163 212 242
D&A Exp. 4 5 7 9 10 13 17 25 34 35
Net Profit 43 64 101 77 91 119 182 270 422 417
Net Margin 25.4% 41.5% 48.0% 33.8% 35.3% 34.3% 38.0% 38.9% 45.4% 42.1%
Free Cash Flow 39 24 -1 -62 49 79 184 197 346 619
Income Tax 13 27 50 34 40 54 94 154 159 137

Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Total Assets 2771 3274 3842 4040 4791 6766 9879 18890 21276 22388
Accounts Receivable 15 14 13 13 14 20 25 52 65 82
Goodwill & Int. Ass. 6 8 12 12 19 106 152 721 709 696
Accounts Payable N/A N/A 46 28 17 37 52 73 186 216
Long-Term Debt 408 347 367 346 346 256 322 383 364 439
Shareholder’s Equity 269 320 425 508 629 908 1465 2792 3461 3770
D/E Ratio 1.51 1.08 0.86 0.68 0.55 0.28 0.22 0.14 0.11 0.12

Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Return on Assets 1.4% 2.1% 2.8% 2.0% 2.1% 2.1% 2.2% 1.9% 2.1% 1.9%
Return on Equity 16.5% 21.7% 27.2% 16.5% 16.1% 15.4% 15.4% 12.7% 13.5% 11.5%
ROIC 5.8% 9.5% 13.8% 9.3% 9.9% 11.1% 12.3% 10.9% 12.0% 10.4%
Shares Out. 68 68 69 71 74 80 90 121 128 130
Revenue/Share 2.51 2.26 3.06 3.26 3.57 4.43 5.49 6.63 7.39 7.70
FCF/Share 0.57 0.35 -0.01 -0.89 0.68 1.01 2.11 1.88 2.75 4.80

13
Bank OZK (OZK) Dividend Yield History

4.50% $60
4.00%
$50
3.50%
3.00% $40
2.50%
$30
2.00%
1.50% $20
1.00%
$10
0.50%
0.00% $-
1997
1998
1999
2000
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2005
2006
2007
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2009
2010
2011
2012
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2018
2019
Yield Price

14
Bank OZK (OZK) Fundamentals

$4.00 100%
90%
$3.50
80%
$3.00
70%
$2.50
60%
$2.00 50%
40%
$1.50
30%
$1.00
20%
$0.50
10%
$- 0%
1997
1998
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2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019

15
Bank OZK (OZK): Valuation Analysis

25
21.3 20.6
20 18.8
15.9
14.4
15 14.2
11
10 9.6
8.1
7.1
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

16
AT&T Inc. (T)

AT&T is a large telecommunications company with over 100 million customers in the U.S., as well as
a significant presence in Latin America. AT&T generates more than $180 billion in annual revenue
and has increased its dividend for 35 consecutive years.
AT&T reported third-quarter earnings on October 28th and results were largely in-line with
expectations. Revenue came in 3% lower year-over-year as WarnerMedia revenue disappointed, but
legacy AT&T businesses performed relatively well. Strong margin performance helped drive adjusted
earnings-per-share higher to $0.94 from $0.90 in the year-ago period.
AT&T also provided a three-year plan on its financial expectations and capital allocation. The
company expects 2022 adjusted earnings-per-share in the range of $4.50-$4.80, which would represent
roughly 10% growth at the midpoint. It also expects revenue to climb between 1% and 2% each year,
while adjusted EBITDA margin should expand ~200 basis points to 35% of revenue by 2022. AT&T
targets free cash flow of $30 billion to $32 billion by 2022. AT&T will use the cash to buy back ~70%
of the shares issued for Time Warner, as well as retiring 100% of the debt issued in the transaction.
More recently, AT&T provided (12/13/2019) further information on its future capital allocation
strategy. First, the company increased its quarterly dividend by 2%. Secondly, the company entered
into a $4 billion accelerated stock repurchase plan, hoping to retire 100 million shares in Q1.
AT&T’s primary competitive advantage is its scale. The U.S. telecom industry is dominated by two
major players: AT&T and rival Verizon. It is all-but-impossible for a new telecom company to build a
network with the necessary scale to compete with the established industry giants. This gives AT&T a
wide economic moat and a durable competitive advantage.
The company remained highly profitable each year of the recession but experienced a minor dip in
earnings-per-share in 2009. However, Sprint and T-Mobile appear to be gaining traction in their effort
to combine to become the third-largest carrier in the U.S. Should this come to fruition, it would
represent a potential risk to both AT&T and Verizon.
AT&T’s major growth catalyst going forward is media content, driven by the $81 billion acquisition of
Time Warner, which owns multiple media brands, including: TNT, TBS, CNN, and HBO. Time
Warner also owns a movie studio and sports rights across the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NCAA.
AT&T expects to generate earnings-per-share of $3.65 in fiscal 2019. Based on this, the stock has a
price-to-earnings ratio of 10.6. Our fair value estimate for AT&T is a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.0,
which means valuation expansion could boost future shareholder returns by approximately 2.5% per
year over the next five years. Including the 5.4% dividend yield and 4% expected earnings growth,
expected returns could reach 11.9% over the next five years.
Estimated Fair Value: $44 Dividend Risk Score: B

17

Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Revenue ($B) 122.5 124.3 126.7 127.4 128.8 132.4 146.8 163.8 160.5 170.8
Gross Profit 71942 74023 71819 72206 77561 72302 79755 86596 82736 91337
Gross Margin 58.7% 59.6% 56.7% 56.7% 60.2% 54.6% 54.3% 52.9% 51.5% 53.5%
SG&A Exp. 31427 34986 41314 41066 28414 39697 32919 36845 35465 36765
D&A Exp. N/A 19379 18377 18143 18395 18273 22016 25847 24387 28430
Op. Margin 17.1% 15.8% 9.6% 10.2% 23.9% 10.8% 16.9% 14.6% 14.3% 15.3%
Net Profit 12138 19085 3944 7264 18418 6442 13345 12976 29450 19370
Net Margin 9.9% 15.4% 3.1% 5.7% 14.3% 4.9% 9.1% 7.9% 18.3% 11.3%
Free Cash Flow 17111 15692 14633 19711 13852 10139 16662 16926 17363 22844
Income Tax 6091 -1162 2532 2900 9328 3619 7005 6479 -14.7B 4920
Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Total Assets ($B) 268.3 269.4 270.4 272.3 277.8 296.8 402.7 403.8 444.1 531.9
Acc. Receivable 14845 13610 13231 12657 12918 14527 16532 16794 16522 26472
Goodwill/Int. ($B) 134.4 134.1 130.2 128.5 131.5 136.7 225.3 222.1 219.7 310.2
Total Liab. ($B) 166.3 157.4 164.6 179.6 186.3 206.6 279.0 279.7 302.1 338.0
LT Debt ($B) 76.3 66.2 64.8 69.8 74.8 81.8 126.2 123.5 164.3 176.5
Total Equity ($B) 101.6 111.6 105.5 92.4 91.0 89.7 122.7 123.1 140.9 184.1
D/E Ratio 0.75 0.59 0.61 0.76 0.82 0.91 1.03 1.00 1.17 0.96
Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Return on Assets 4.5% 7.1% 1.5% 2.7% 6.7% 2.2% 3.8% 3.2% 6.9% 4.0%
Return on Equity 12.3% 17.9% 3.6% 7.3% 20.1% 7.1% 12.6% 10.6% 22.3% 11.9%
ROIC 6.9% 10.7% 2.3% 4.4% 11.2% 3.8% 6.3% 5.2% 10.6% 5.7%
Shares Out. 5,902 5,911 5,927 5,581 5,226 5,187 6,145 6,139 6,139 7,282
Revenue/Share 20.68 20.93 21.30 21.89 23.91 25.37 26.00 26.46 25.97 25.09
FCF/Share 2.89 2.64 2.46 3.39 2.57 1.94 2.95 2.73 2.81 3.36

18
$70
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$-
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
AT&T Inc. (T) Dividend Yield History
2006
2005

2004
Price
2003
2002
Yield
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
8.00%
7.00%
6.00%
5.00%
4.00%
3.00%
2.00%
1.00%
0.00%
19
AT&T Inc. (T) Fundamentals

$6.00 100%
90%
$5.00
80%
70%
$4.00
60%
$3.00 50%
40%
$2.00
30%
20%
$1.00
10%
$- 0%
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019

20
AT&T Inc. (T): Valuation Analysis

16
14.5 14.2 13.8

13.8
14
13.4 12.6 12.7
12.1
12 11.7
10
8.1
8
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

21
M&T Bank Corp. (MTB)

M&T Bank Corporation is a regional bank with locations in New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and
West Virginia. The bank has more than 800 branches across these states and a workforce of about
17,000 people. M&T is heavy in commercial real estate lending and commercial loans, as consumer
loans make up only about one-quarter of its balance sheet. M&T Bank has a market capitalization of
$22 billion, with annual revenue of $6 billion.
M&T Bank reported earnings results for the third quarter on 10/17/19. The bank earned $3.50 per
share, which was $0.09 below estimates and a 0.8% decrease from the same quarter the previous year.
Revenue increased 5.4% to $1.6 billion, which was $30 million above expectations. Average loans and
leases were flat from the third quarter 2018, while total deposits increased 6.7% year-over-year. One
negative from the quarter was that net interest income was flat year-on-year, as higher average earning
assets were offset by lower net interest margin. That said, M&T remains highly profitable and returns
cash to shareholders. M&T Bank retired $1.1 billion of shares through the first three quarters of 2019.
Competitive advantages are difficult to come by for banks given that they all largely offer the same
products. M&T has decent market share where it competes, but we don’t believe M&T has any
particular advantage over its competitors. That said, its large branch count and overall size provide it
with a stable and highly profitable business model. The company is expected to maintain a dividend
payout ratio of 28% for 2019, which indicates the dividend is secure, even in a recession.
Likewise, M&T is highly susceptible to recessions as commercial loans tend to sour at a much higher
rate during downturns. M&T remained profitable during the Great Recession, but investors should
keep in mind that this is certainly not a defensive stock. Indeed, earnings-per-share declined more than
40% during the Great Recession, and we expect similar declines during the next downturn.
M&T’s primary growth catalysts are revenue and share repurchases. We see a low single-digit
tailwind from organic revenue growth, as well as a similarly sized tailwind from share repurchases.
M&T generates significant excess capital given that its dividend is less than 30% of earnings, so the
bank will be able to continue to reduce the float over time. Earnings-per-share grew at a rate of 6.3%
per year over the last decade, and we expect M&T Bank to maintain this growth rate through 2025.
M&T trades for a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.8 based on expected earnings-per-share of $14.37 for
fiscal 2019. Our fair value estimate for the stock is a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.0, meaning the stock
appears to be significantly undervalued right now. As such, a rising valuation could add 2.0% per year
to M&T’s shareholder returns. In addition, we expect earnings-per-share growth of 6.3% per year
through 2025. M&T Bank is also a strong dividend growth stock; on November 19 th, the company
raised its quarterly dividend by 10%. Adding in the 2.6% dividend yield, total expected returns could
approach 11% per year for M&T stock over the next five years.
Years of Dividend Increases: 3 5-Year Growth Estimate: 6.3%
Stock Price: $169 Retirement Suitability Score: C
22

Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Revenue 3268 3488 3973 4266 4538 4456 4668 5296 5632 5928
SG&A Exp. 1137 1113 1345 1458 1464 1697 1863 2022 2040 2141
D&A Exp. 191 182 198 205 204 199 175 201 197 179
Net Profit 380 736 859 1029 1138 1066 1080 1315 1408 1918
Net Margin 11.6% 21.1% 21.6% 24.1% 25.1% 23.9% 23.1% 24.8% 25.0% 32.4%
Free Cash Flow 1130 1605 1702 408 803 1026 1660 1076 2703 1992
Income Tax 139 357 365 523 627 576 595 743 916 590
Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Total Assets ($B) 68.9 68.0 77.9 83.0 85.2 96.7 122.8 123.4 118.6 120.1
Acc. Receivable 4132 4138 4612 4449 5282 5618 5962 5323 5013 4774
Goodwill & Int. 3707 3651 3701 3640 3593 3560 4733 4691 4665 4640
Total Liab. ($B) 61.1 59.7 68.7 72.8 73.9 84.3 106.6 107.0 102.3 104.6
Accounts Payable N/A N/A 1790 1513 1369 1568 1871 1811 1594 1637
Long-Term Debt 10471 7921 5336 3208 3709 7607 10736 8573 7720 12236
Total Equity 7023 7617 8407 9330 10424 11104 14942 15255 15019 14229
D/E Ratio 1.35 0.95 0.58 0.31 0.33 0.62 0.66 0.52 0.48 0.79
Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Return on Assets 0.6% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.6%
Return on Equity 5.7% 10.1% 10.7% 11.6% 11.5% 9.9% 8.3% 8.7% 9.3% 13.1%
ROIC 1.9% 4.3% 5.6% 7.3% 8.0% 6.1% 4.6% 5.1% 5.7% 7.4%
Shares Out. 118 120 125 128 131 132 160 156 150 142
Revenue/Share 28.47 29.35 32.28 32.91 35.02 32.40 33.94 33.67 36.92 41.13
FCF/Share 9.85 13.51 13.83 3.15 6.19 7.46 12.07 6.84 17.72 13.82

23
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$-
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
M&T Bank Corp. (MTB) Dividend Yield History
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000

1999
Price
1998
1997
1996
Yield
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
12.00%
10.00%
8.00%
6.00%
4.00%
2.00%
0.00%
24
M&T Bank Corp. (MTB) Fundamentals

$16.00 100%
90%
$14.00
80%
$12.00
70%
$10.00
60%
$8.00 50%
40%
$6.00
30%
$4.00
20%
$2.00
10%
$- 0%
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019

25
M&T Bank Corp. (MTB): Valuation Analysis

20
18.5
18.5
17.1
18
16.3
15.3
16 14.4
14 13.3 13.5
12.1
12 11.7
10
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Average Annual P/E Ratio Current P/E 10-Year Av erage

26
Whirlpool Corp. (WHR)

Whirlpool is a home appliance company that generates about $21 billion in annual sales. It has a large
portfolio of category leading brands; such as Whirlpool, KitchenAid, Maytag, Consul, Brastemp,
Amana, Bauknecht, JennAir, and Indesit. The current environment is challenging for Whirlpool, as the
company is caught up in the escalating trade concerns between the U.S. and other nations such as
China. Furthermore, raw materials cost inflation has squeezed the company’s profit margins.
In late October (10/22/19), Whirlpool released Q3 2019 results for the period ending September 30th,
2019. Revenue was $5.09 billion, down 4.4% year-over-year, while organic net sales increased 1.6%.
Whirlpool North America, Whirlpool Latin America and Whirlpool Asia saw sales increases on a
constant currency basis, though these were largely offset by a decline in Whirlpool Europe, Middle
East and Africa. Adjusting for a significant gain related to the sale of a compressor business, earnings-
per-share for the quarter came in at $3.97 compared to $4.55 previously. Due to the poor results,
Whirlpool also updated its outlook for full-year 2019 with expectations of generating earnings-per-
share of $16.80 to $17.55 on a GAAP basis (down from $17.80 to $18.55 previously) or $14.75 to
$15.50 per share on an adjusted basis (unchanged).
Competitive Advantage & Recession Performance
That being said, we believe that Whirlpool’s long-term outlook remains healthy given its impressive
global scale, which serves as a considerable competitive advantage. With 70 manufacturing and
technology research centers around the world, the company enjoys a cost advantage that allows it to
invest in R&D to innovate new products, often launching more than 100 products in a single year. Its
global presence also gives it exposure to high-growth emerging markets such as China and India.
Whirlpool struggles during recessions as consumers defer the purchase of large appliances. Earnings-
per-share declined 46% off annual highs through The Great Recession. Even with a Great Recession
level event, the company’s dividend will likely still be covered by earnings thanks to Whirlpool’s low
payout ratio of 32% of expected fiscal 2019 earnings.
Whirlpool’s future growth will be centered on new products. For example, connectivity is a major
growth theme for appliance manufacturers. The onset of the Internet of Things means a much wider
range of devices other than smartphones and tablets will connect to the Internet to store and transmit
data. To that end, Whirlpool has extended the mobile watch functionality of its connected appliances
to include Wear OS by Google using Google Assistant.
Whirlpool stock trades for a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.8, compared with our fair value estimate of 11.
If the stock valuation rises to the fair value estimate, annual returns will increase by approximately
2.3% per year over the next five years. In addition, we expect 5% annual earnings growth, and the
stock has a 3.2% dividend yield. Altogether, the combination of earnings growth, dividends, and
valuation changes, results in total expected returns of about 10.5% per year.
Stock Price: $146 Retirement Suitability Score: B
27

Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Revenue 17099 18366 18666 18143 18769 19872 20891 20718 21253 21037
Gross Profit 2386 2714 2577 2893 3298 3395 3660 3692 3602 3537
Gross Margin 14.0% 14.8% 13.8% 15.9% 17.6% 17.1% 17.5% 17.8% 16.9% 16.8%
SG&A Exp. 1544 1604 1621 1757 1828 2038 2143 2080 2112 2189
D&A Exp. 525 555 558 551 540 560 668 655 654 645
Op. Margin 4.8% 5.9% 5.0% 6.1% 7.7% 6.7% 6.9% 7.4% 6.6% 6.1%
Net Profit 328 619 390 401 827 650 783 888 350 -183
Net Margin 1.9% 3.4% 2.1% 2.2% 4.4% 3.3% 3.7% 4.3% 1.6% -0.9%
Free Cash Flow 1009 458 -78 220 684 759 536 543 580 639
Income Tax -61 -64 -436 133 68 189 209 186 550 138
Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Total Assets 15094 15584 15181 15396 15544 20002 19010 19153 20038 18347
Acc. Receivable 2500 2278 2105 2038 2005 2768 2530 2711 2665 2210
Inventories 2197 2792 2354 2354 2408 2740 2619 2623 2988 2533
Goodwill & Int. 3525 3520 3484 3449 3426 5610 5684 5508 5709 4747
Long-Term Debt 2903 2509 2491 2461 2463 4347 3998 4470 5218 6027
Total Equity 3664 4226 4181 4260 4924 4885 4743 4773 4198 2291
D/E Ratio 0.79 0.59 0.60 0.58 0.50 0.89 0.84 0.94 1.24 2.63
Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Return on Assets 2.3% 4.0% 2.5% 2.6% 5.3% 3.7% 4.0% 4.7% 1.8% -1.0%
Return on Equity 9.8% 15.7% 9.3% 9.5% 18.0% 13.3% 16.3% 18.7% 7.8% -5.6%
ROIC 5.3% 9.2% 5.7% 5.9% 11.5% 7.4% 7.9% 8.9% 3.4% -1.9%
Shares Out. 75.6 77.6 78.1 79.3 80.8 79.6 79.7 77.2 74.4 67.2
Revenue/Share 75 76 76 79 77 78 77 74 71 64
FCF/Share 13.35 5.90 -1.00 2.77 8.47 9.54 6.73 7.03 7.80 9.51

28
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$-
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
Whirlpool Corp. (WHR) Dividend Yield History
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000

1999
Price
1998
1997
1996
Yield
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
10.00%
9.00%
8.00%
7.00%
6.00%
5.00%
4.00%
3.00%
2.00%
1.00%
0.00%
29
Whirlpool Corp. (WHR) Fundamentals

$20.00 100%
90%
$15.00 80%
70%
$10.00 60%
50%
$5.00 40%
30%
$- 20%
10%
$(5.00) 0%
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019

30
Whirlpool Corp. (WHR): Valuation Analysis

16
14.4
13.4
14
12.8
12.8 12.9
12
11.9
12
10.6
10 9.5
8 7.9
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

31
Altria Grp. Inc. (MO)

Altria sells cigarettes, chewing tobacco, cigars, e-cigarettes and wine under the Marlboro, Skoal,
Copenhagen, and St. Michelle brands, among others. The company also has a 10% equity stake in
Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD), a 35% stake in e-cigarette maker Juul Labs, and a 45% stake in the
marijuana company Cronos Grp. (CRON).
In late October, Altria reported (10/31/19) strong third-quarter earnings. Revenue (net of excise taxes)
increased 2.3% year-over-year to $5.4 billion. Despite a sharp volume drop of 6.5% in smokeable
products and a 2.5% decline in smokeless product volume, revenue still topped estimates. But thanks
to cost savings and share buybacks, Altria’s adjusted earnings-per-share increased 10% for the quarter.
Separately, Altria took a non-cash impairment charge of $4.5 billion related to its investment in Juul.
Along with third-quarter earnings, Altria reaffirmed its guidance for 2019. The company expects full-
year adjusted diluted EPS to be in a range of $4.19 to $4.27, which would be 5% to 7% growth from
2018. Altria expects 5% to 8% adjusted EPS growth from 2020-2022.
Altria has tremendous competitive advantages. It has the most valuable cigarette brand in the U.S.,
Marlboro, which commands greater than a 40% domestic retail share. This gives Altria the ability to
raise prices to drive revenue growth, as it has done for many years. Thanks to Altria’s stable growth,
the company increased its dividend for the 50th consecutive year in 2019.
Another benefit of Altria’s business model is that it is highly resistant to recessions. Cigarettes and
alcohol sales hold up very well during recessions, which keep Altria’s profitability and dividend
growth intact. Given Altria’s own exposure to cigarettes and now, e-cigarette products, in addition to
its sizable investment stake in AB InBev, it should hold up very well during the next downturn.
Altria’s biggest risk is the declining U.S. smoking rate, the impact of which was seen clearly in its
results to start 2019. In response, Altria has invested heavily in non-combustible products that it
believes carry fewer health risks, such as its $13 billion investment in e-cigarette leader Juul and its
$1.8 billion investment in Cronos. Altria also recently invested $372 million to acquire an 80%
ownership stake in Swiss tobacco company, Burger Söhne Grp., to commercialize its tobacco leaf-free
on! brand of oral nicotine pouches. In addition, Altria recently announced a new $1 billion share
repurchase program, which the company expects to complete by the end of 2020.
Altria stock trades for a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.7, compared with our fair value estimate of 11.5.
As a result, Altria stock appears to be slightly overvalued, which could result in negative returns of
0.3% per year over the next five years. The small impact from overvaluation should be more than
offset by future EPS growth and dividends. Our expected annual EPS growth of 4% over the next five
years and the current dividend yield of 6.8% result in total expected returns of 10.5% per year over the
next five years.
Dividend Yield: 6.8% 5-Year Valuation Return Estimate: -0.3%
32

Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Revenue 16824 24363 23800 24618 24466 24522 25434 25744 25576 25364
Gross Profit 8834 9188 8939 9563 10457 10160 11114 11572 11963 12254
Gross Margin 52.5% 37.7% 37.6% 38.8% 42.7% 41.4% 43.7% 45.0% 46.8% 48.3%
SG&A Exp. 2843 2735 2643 2301 2340 2539 2708 2662 2338 2756
D&A Exp. 291 276 253 225 212 208 225 204 209 227
Op. Margin 35.5% 25.7% 26.4% 29.7% 33.1% 31.1% 32.9% 34.6% 37.6% 37.4%
Net Profit 3206 3905 3390 4180 4535 5070 5241 14239 10222 6963
Net Margin 19.1% 16.0% 14.2% 17.0% 18.5% 20.7% 20.6% 55.3% 40.0% 27.5%
Free Cash Flow 3170 2599 3476 3761 4244 4500 5614 3637 4702 8153
Income Tax 1669 1816 2189 2294 2407 2704 2835 7608 -399 2374
Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Total Assets 36677 37402 36751 35329 34859 34475 31459 45932 43202 55638
Acc. Receivable 96 85 268 193 115 124 124 151 142 142
Inventories 1810 1803 1779 1746 1879 2040 2031 2051 2225 2331
Goodwill & Int. 17312 17292 17272 17252 17232 17334 17313 17321 17707 17475
Long-Term Debt 11960 12194 13689 13878 14517 14693 12847 13881 13894 25746
Total Equity 4069 5192 3680 3168 4119 3014 2880 12770 15377 14787
D/E Ratio 2.94 2.35 3.72 4.38 3.52 4.87 4.46 1.09 0.90 1.74
Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Return on Assets 10.0% 10.5% 9.1% 11.6% 12.9% 14.6% 15.9% 36.8% 22.9% 14.1%
Return on Equity 93.0% 84.3% 76.4% 122% 126% 142% 178% 182% 72.6% 46.2%
ROIC 24.3% 23.3% 19.5% 24.3% 25.4% 27.9% 31.4% 67.2% 36.6% 19.9%
Shares Out. 2076 2089 2044 2010 1994 1969 1960 1943 1901 1888
Revenue/Share 8.12 11.72 11.53 12.16 12.24 12.40 12.97 13.19 13.31 13.43
FCF/Share 1.53 1.25 1.68 1.86 2.12 2.28 2.86 1.86 2.45 4.32

33
Altria Group (MO) Dividend Yield History

9.00% $90
8.00% $80
7.00% $70
6.00% $60
5.00% $50
4.00% $40
3.00% $30
2.00% $20
1.00% $10
0.00% $-
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Yield Price

34
Altria Group (MO) Fundamentals

$6.00 100%
90%
$5.00
80%
$4.00
70%
60%
$3.00
50%
$2.00
40%
30%
$1.00
20%
$-
10%
$(1.00) 0%
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019

35
Altria Group (MO): Valuation Analysis

25
23.4
20.6
20.1
20
16.2 16.5
15.7 15.7
15
12.4
11.8
9.9
10
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

36
Cummins Inc. (CMI)

Cummins designs, manufactures, distributes and services engines for heavy, medium and light-duty
trucks. The company’s product line includes diesel and natural gas engines as well as hybrid and
electric platforms. Cummins was founded in 1919 and has a market capitalization of more than $27
billion. The company generates about $23 billion in sales and employs more than 62,000 people.
Cummins reported somewhat weak fiscal third-quarter earnings. Total revenue declined 3% year-over-
year due to lower demand for trucks and construction equipment. Sales in North America were flat,
but international sales fell 8%. Despite this, EBITDA was essentially flat at 16.6% of revenue in Q3.
Earnings-per-share declined from $4.28 in the year-ago period to $3.97 this year, including one-time
gains and losses related to foreign exchange hedging, product phase-outs, and income changes.
Management expects 2019 revenue to be down 2%, compared with previous expectations of flat
revenue. The reduced revenue forecast is due to worsening truck production in multiple markets,
including North America and Europe. It also expects EBITDA margin to be 15.9% to 16.3% of sales,
down from 16.25% to 16.75% in prior guidance.
Cummins has important advantages over each of its three main competitors – which are Navistar
(NAV), Detroit Diesel, and Caterpillar (CAT). Relative to Navistar and Detroit Diesel (which is a
private company), Cummins has strong scale advantages as the two competitors are much smaller.
Separately, Cummins has technical advantages over Caterpillar as it is focused entirely on diesel engine
manufacturing, while the latter also builds construction, mining, and forestry equipment.
Cummins is certainly not the most recession-resistant stock as earnings-per-share fell by 40% during
the Great Recession. Still, the company remained profitable and its low payout ratio gives it flexibility
to continue increasing its dividend during future downturns.
Cummins has been benefiting from an increase in worldwide emission regulations and fuel efficiency
standards. When paired with the company’s reliable and superior quality engines, this has afforded the
company growth opportunities. In addition, the company recently authorized a new $2 billion share
repurchase program to boost EPS growth, as this equals roughly 7% of its current market capitalization.
We expect Cummins to generate earnings-per-share of $15.50 in the current fiscal year. Using this
estimate, Cummins is trading at a current price-to-earnings ratio of 11.5, which compares favorably to
our fair value estimate of 13 times earnings. If Cummins’ valuation expands to fair value, this will
boost its total returns by about 2.5% per year during this time period. Separately, expect earnings-per-
share growth of about 5% per year, and the stock currently pays a dividend that yields 2.9%. We see
the stock producing 10.4% total annual returns to shareholders through 2025.
Stock Price: $177 Retirement Suitability Score: B
2 Cummins has paid steady or rising dividends for over 20 years; dividend growth was paused in 2009.
37

Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Revenue 10800 13226 18048 17334 17301 19221 19110 17509 20428 23771
Gross Profit 2169 3168 4589 4416 4280 4861 4947 4452 5090 5737
Gross Margin 20.1% 24.0% 25.4% 25.5% 24.7% 25.3% 25.9% 25.4% 24.9% 24.1%
SG&A Exp. 1239 1487 1837 1808 1817 2095 2092 2046 2390 2437
D&A Exp. 326 320 325 361 407 455 514 530 583
Op. Margin 5.3% 9.5% 11.9% 10.8% 10.1% 10.4% 11.0% 10.2% 9.8% 10.1%
Net Profit 428 1040 1848 1645 1483 1651 1399 1394 999 2141
Net Margin 4.0% 7.9% 10.2% 9.5% 8.6% 8.6% 7.3% 8.0% 4.9% 9.0%
Free Cash Flow 792 599 1391 755 1349 1468 1266 1345 1690 1594
Income Tax 156 477 725 533 531 698 555 474 1371 566

Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Total Assets 8816 10402 11668 12548 14728 15764 15134 15011 18075 19062
Accounts Receivable 1730 1935 2252 2235 2362 2744 2640 2803 3311 3866
Inventories 1341 1977 2141 2221 2381 2866 2707 2675 3166 3759
Goodwill & Int. Ass. 592 589 566 814 818 822 810 812 2055 2035
Long-Term Debt 674 791 783 775 1740 1686 1639 1856 2006 2476
Shareholder’s Equity 3773 4670 5492 6603 7510 7749 7406 6875 7259 7348
D/E Ratio 0.18 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.27 0.28 0.34

Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Return on Assets 4.9% 10.8% 16.7% 13.6% 10.9% 10.8% 9.1% 9.2% 6.0% 11.5%
Return on Equity 12.2% 24.6% 36.4% 27.2% 21.0% 21.6% 18.5% 19.5% 14.1% 29.3%
ROIC 9.6% 19.8% 29.8% 22.9% 17.1% 17.0% 14.6% 15.1% 10.4% 20.5%
Shares Out. 201 198 193 190 187 182 175 168 166 163
Revenue/Share 54.63 67.09 93.22 91.39 92.31 104.99 107.11 103.40 122.13 146.01
FCF/Share 4.01 3.04 7.19 3.98 7.20 8.02 7.10 7.94 10.10 9.79

38
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$-
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
Cummins (CMI) Dividend Yield History
2002
2001
2000

1999
Price
1998
1997
1996
Yield
1995
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1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
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1972
8.00%
7.00%
6.00%
5.00%
4.00%
3.00%
2.00%
1.00%
0.00%
39
Cummins (CMI) Fundamentals

$18.00 100%
$16.00 90%
$14.00
80%
$12.00
70%
$10.00
60%
$8.00
50%
$6.00
40%
$4.00
30%
$2.00
20%
$-
$(2.00) 10%
$(4.00) 0%
1984
1985
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1988
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1991
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2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
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2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019

40
Cummins (CMI): Valuation Analysis

18
15.8
16 14.8
14.5 15.3 14.9
14 14.1
14
11.9
12
11.1
10.2
10
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

41
People’s United Financial Inc. (PBCT)

People’s United Financial is a regional bank and financial services company engaged in real estate and
mortgage lending, equipment financing, consumer loans, life insurance, brokerage services, wealth
management, and traditional banking services. The company has a network of 400+ branches, with
total assets of $52 billion and a market capitalization of $7.3 billion.
In mid-October, People’s United Financial reported (10/17/19) financial results for the third quarter of
fiscal 2019. Despite declining interest rates, the company reported flat net interest margin of 3.12%
thanks to its proactive decrease of deposit rates. Non-interest income rose 15% and operating earnings
climbed 19% over last year’s quarter but operating earnings-per-share rose only 3%, from $0.33 to
$0.34, due to the dilution that resulted from recent acquisitions.
People’s United Financial completed the acquisition of United Financial Bancorp (UBNK) on
November 1st, 2019. This acquisition will enhance the presence of the company in central Connecticut
and western Massachusetts.
People’s United has a positive growth outlook in the coming years. Acquisitions will continue to help
the company expand its geographic reach and customer base. It recently acquired VAR Technology
Finance, which focuses on serving the technological sector. People’s United Financial also completed
the acquisition of BSB Bancorp, while announcing the United Financial deal. The bank also continues
to benefit from higher loan balances thanks to organic and acquired growth.
People’s United is not a recession-resistant company. As a financial services provider, its profits are
highly correlated to economic growth. For example, from 2007-2010, earnings-per-share declined 54%
as the Great Recession took its toll. With that said, it remained profitable throughout and continued to
increase its dividend through the Great Recession. Today, People’s United has a secure dividend. We
expect $1.33 in earnings-per-share in 2019; the current dividend payout stands at $0.71 per share, for a
dividend payout ratio of just 53%.
People’s United Financial has grown its earnings-per-share for 9 consecutive years and has not missed
analysts’ earnings-per-share estimates for 13 consecutive quarters. In the last five years, the company
has grown its earnings-per-share at a 9.3% average annual rate. Going forward, we expect
approximately 5% annual earnings-per-share growth over the next five years.
We expect earnings-per-share of $1.33 for 2019. Based on this, the stock trades for a price-to-earnings
ratio (P/E) of 12.5. Our fair value estimate is a P/E of 13, which we believe is warranted due to the
company’s growth potential and dividend history. Expansion of the valuation multiple could produce a
slight bump of ~0.8% annually to shareholder returns through 2025. Combining valuation changes
with the 5.0% expected annual earnings growth and the 4.3% dividend yield, we expect total returns of
10.1% per year for People’s United Financial stock over the next five years.
42

Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Revenue 886 964 1221 1249 1230 1242 1275 1315 1453 1602
SG&A Exp. 372 418 489 485 495 511 521 534 593 640
D&A Exp. 66 73 65 66 67 64 63 61 69 58
Net Profit 101 83 192 245 232 252 260 281 337 468
Net Margin 11.4% 8.6% 15.8% 19.6% 18.9% 20.3% 20.4% 21.4% 23.2% 29.2%
Free Cash Flow 42 148 131 429 295 297 248 294 574 501
Income Tax 43 40 93 124 115 129 130 129 130 108

Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Total Assets 21257 25037 27558 30324 33214 35997 38947 40610 44453 47877
Goodwill & Int. 1515 1962 2174 2154 2127 2103 2088 2142 2560 2866
Long-Term Debt 197 691 519 1838 4370 3326 4497 4127 3884 3311
Total Equity 5101 5219 5215 5039 4568 4633 4732 4898 5576 6290
D/E Ratio 0.04 0.13 0.10 0.36 0.96 0.72 0.95 0.80 0.67 0.51

Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Return on Assets 0.5% 0.4% 0.7% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 1.0%
Return on Equity 2.0% 1.6% 3.7% 4.8% 4.8% 5.5% 5.6% 5.8% 6.4% 7.9%
ROIC 1.9% 1.5% 3.3% 3.9% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.6% 4.8%
Shares Out. 332.3 352.6 348.7 338.4 312.0 298.3 300.4 304.0 332.9 372.8
Revenue/Share 2.67 2.73 3.50 3.69 3.94 4.16 4.25 4.33 4.37 4.56
FCF/Share 0.13 0.42 0.38 1.27 0.95 0.99 0.83 0.97 1.72 1.43

43
People's United Financial Inc. (PBCT) Dividend Yield History

9.00% $25
8.00%
$20
7.00%
6.00%
$15
5.00%
4.00%
$10
3.00%
2.00%
$5
1.00%
0.00% $-
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Yield Price

44
People's United Financial Inc. (PBCT) Fundamentals

$1.50 100%
90%
$1.00
80%
70%
$0.50
60%
$- 50%
40%
$(0.50)
30%
20%
$(1.00)
10%
$(1.50) 0%
1987
1988
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2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019

45
People's United Financial Inc. (PBCT): Valuation Analysis

25
22.3
20 18.2 19
19
17.5 17.3
17
15
13.8
10
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

46
Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT)

Lockheed Martin is the world’s largest defense company. The company consists of four business
segments: Aeronautics (~40% sales) - which produces aircraft like the F-35, F-22, F-16 and C-130;
Rotary and Mission Systems (~26% sales) - which includes combat ships, naval electronics and
helicopters; Missiles and Fire Control (~16% sales) - which creates missile defense systems; and Space
Systems (~17% sales) - which produces satellites.
Lockheed Martin reported another quarter of strong results for Q3 2019 on October 22nd, 2019. The
company easily beat revenue and earnings-per-share (EPS) expectations. Companywide net sales
increased 6% to $15,171 million from $14,318 million and diluted GAAP EPS increased 10% to $5.66
from $5.14 on a year-over-year basis. Three of four business segments again achieved an increase in
net sales and operating profit. The Aeronautics segment increased net sales 10% to $6,178 million
from $5,642 million in the prior year due to increased production of the F-35 combined with
development and sustainment contracts. The Missiles and Fire Control segment increased 14% to
$2,601 million from $2,273 million in comparable periods due higher sales from tactical and strike
missiles, Patriot Advanced Capability-3, and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense volumes. Rotary
and Mission Systems net sales declined (4%) to $3,709 million from $3,848 million in the prior year on
lower volumes for the Blackhawk helicopter. The Space segment sales increased 5% to $2,683 million
from $2,555 million due to higher revenue in government satellite programs and strategic and missile
defense programs.
Competitive Advantage & Recession Performance
Lockheed Martin’s competitive advantage comes from its deep technical expertise and its entrenched
relationship with sovereign customers such as the U.S. Department of Defense. These competitive
strengths have allowed the company to attract more business than it can fulfill at any one time; in fact,
Lockheed Martin’s sales backlog rose to $137.4 billion at the end of the most recent quarter.
Lockheed Martin is also very recession resistant. During the global financial crisis of 2007 through
2009, the company’s earnings-per-share declined from $7.86 to $7.23 – a decrease of just 8.0%. We
expect the company to fare similarly well during future economic downturns.
Lockheed Martin’s robust industrial backlog makes its future growth prospects compelling. We expect
the company to grow its earnings by 10% per year moving forward. For context, the company’s per-
share profits have increased at an even faster rate of 13% over the last half-decade.
Lockheed Martin is a rare example of a Sure Dividend recommendation trading slightly above fair
value. The company is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.5 and our fair value estimate is an
earnings multiple of 16. If the company’s valuation contracts to our fair value estimate over the next 5
years, this would reduce its total returns by 2.9% per year. Still, the company’s expected returns are
about 9.3% per year, making it attractive relative to the broader large-cap universe.
Dividend Yield: 2.2% 5-Year Valuation Return Estimate: -2.9%
Stock Price: $399 Retirement Suitability Score: C
47

Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Revenue 43867 45671 46499 47182 45358 39946 40536 47248 51048 53762
Gross Profit 4147 3844 3744 4196 4187 4683 4492 5062 5548 7274
Gross Margin 9.5% 8.4% 8.1% 8.9% 9.2% 11.7% 11.1% 10.7% 10.9% 13.5%
D&A Exp. 1014 1052 1008 988 990 994 1026 1215 1195 1161
Op. Margin 9.5% 9.0% 8.6% 9.4% 9.9% 12.5% 11.6% 11.7% 11.6% 13.6%
Net Profit 2973 2878 2655 2745 2981 3614 3605 5302 2002 5046
Net Margin 6.8% 6.3% 5.7% 5.8% 6.6% 9.0% 8.9% 11.2% 3.9% 9.4%
Free Cash Flow 2321 2727 3266 619 3710 3021 4162 4126 5299 1860
Income Tax 1215 1164 964 1327 1205 1424 1173 1133 3340 792
Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Total Assets 35111 35113 37908 38657 36188 37046 49304 47806 46521 44876
Acc. Receivable 6061 5692 6064 6563 5834 5877 7254 8202 8603 2444
Inventories 2183 2363 2481 2937 2977 2804 4819 4670 4487 2997
Goodwill & Int. 9948 9605 10148 10370 10348 11186 14717 14857 14604 14263
Long-Term Debt 5052 5019 6460 6308 6152 6142 15261 14282 14263 14104
Total Equity 4129 3497 1001 39 4918 3400 3097 1511 -683 1394
D/E Ratio 1.22 1.44 6.45 161.74 1.25 1.81 4.93 9.45 -20.88 10.12
Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Return on Assets 8.7% 8.2% 7.3% 7.2% 8.0% 9.9% 8.3% 10.9% 4.2% 11.0%
Return on Equity 85.0% 75.5% 118% 528% 120% 86.9% 111% 230% 484% 1419%
ROIC 37.5% 32.5% 33.2% 39.8% 34.2% 35.1% 25.8% 31.0% 13.6% 34.6%
Shares Out. 372.9 346 323.4 321 319 314 303 289 284 280
Revenue/Share 112.80 124.00 136.80 143.67 138.92 123.90 128.81 155.88 175.66 187.45
FCF/Share 5.97 7.40 9.61 1.88 11.36 9.37 13.23 13.61 18.23 6.49

48
Lockheed Martin (LMT) Dividend Yield History

6.00% $450
$400
5.00%
$350
4.00% $300
$250
3.00%
$200
2.00% $150
$100
1.00%
$50
0.00% $-
1995
1996
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2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Yield Price

49
Lockheed Martin (LMT) Fundamentals

$25.00 100%
90%
$20.00
80%
70%
$15.00
60%
$10.00 50%
40%
$5.00
30%
20%
$-
10%
$(5.00) 0%
1994
1995
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2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019

50
Lockheed Martin (LMT): Valuation Analysis

25
21.5
20 18.2
19.2
17.7
15.1
15
11.8
10.5 10.6
9.8 9.9
10
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

51
International Business Machines Corp. (IBM)

IBM is a large multinational information technology company founded more than 100 years ago.
Today, IBM is a global giant with $80 billion in annual revenue, and a market capitalization of $119
billion. It provides integrated enterprise solutions for software, hardware and services. The company
has five business segments: Cloud & Cognitive Software, Global Business Services, Global
Technology Services, Systems, and Global Financing.
IBM reported third-quarter 2019 results on October 16th, 2019. Company-wide revenue declined 0.6%
to $18.03 billion, while diluted adjusted earnings-per-share declined 22%, to $2.68 from $3.42 on a
year-over-year basis. Earnings were negatively impacted by acquisition-related costs and amortization.
Global Business Services generated 2.2% constant-currency revenue growth. However, other legacy
businesses continued to perform poorly, as Global Technology Services revenue declined 5.6%, while
Systems revenue declined 15%. IBM’s backlog declined 2% to $107.6 billion, but signings increased
9%. During the quarter IBM closed the Red Hat acquisition, which is now part of the Cognitive &
Software segment. IBM also started to ship the z15 mainframe in the quarter.
IBM has significant competitive advantages, specifically its patent portfolio. The company received
the most patents of any U.S. company in 2018, for the 26th year in a row. IBM received 9,100 patents
across artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and cybersecurity, its most promising growth areas.
The company is projected to have a dividend payout ratio of 50% for 2019. IBM currently distributes
roughly half of earnings, which leaves plenty of room for annual dividend increases moving forward.
Moreover, its interest coverage ratio has consistently exceeded 20x over the last decade. IBM’s credit
rating was cut at S&P Global on debt concerns after the Red Hat acquisition, but the company still
maintains a strong rating of ‘A.’
IBM is investing heavily for growth and is finally seeing a return on its investment. IBM’s strategic
initiatives (including cloud, open source, analytics, and data) will generate the company’s future
growth. For example, Revenue for Cloud & Cognitive Software increased 6.4% (7.8% constant
currency) to $5.28 billion last quarter, due to growth in cognitive applications, as well as cloud & data
platforms. Cloud revenue grew over 14% while acceleration in Red Hat revenue growth totaled 20%.
We expect 3% annual EPS growth through 2025.
Based on expected earnings-per-share of $12.80 for 2019, IBM stock holds a price-to-earnings ratio of
10.5. Our fair value estimate for IBM is a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.0, a slight reduction from our
previous report due to the company’s disappointing recent quarterly results. Still, multiple expansion
could generate annual returns of 0.9% if it occurs over the next 5-year period. In addition, 3%
expected annual earnings growth and the 4.8% dividend yield bring total expected returns to 8.7% per
year over the next five years.
52

Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Revenue ($B) 95.76 99.87 106.92 102.87 98.37 92.79 81.74 79.92 79.14 79.59
Gross Profit 43785 46014 50138 50361 48684 46407 40684 38516 36943 36936
Gross Margin 45.7% 46.1% 46.9% 49.0% 49.5% 50.0% 49.8% 48.2% 46.7% 46.4%
SG&A Exp. 20521 21545 23217 23085 22924 22472 19894 20279 19128 18863
D&A Exp. 4994 4831 4815 4676 4678 4492 3855 4381 4541 4480
Op. Margin 17.8% 19.3% 20.0% 21.5% 20.7% 20.0% 19.2% 17.0% 16.6% 16.6%
Net Profit 13425 14833 15855 16604 16483 12022 13190 11872 5753 8728
Net Margin 14.0% 14.9% 14.8% 16.1% 16.8% 13.0% 16.1% 14.9% 7.3% 11.0%
Free Cash Flow 16696 14795 15179 14869 13345 12685 13104 12934 12951 11283
Income Tax 4713 4890 5148 5541 3363 4234 2581 449 5642 2619
Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Total Assets ($B) 109.02 113.45 116.43 119.21 126.22 117.27 110.50 117.47 125.36 123.38
Acc. Receivable 11879 11968 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Inventories 2494 2450 2595 2287 2310 2103 1551 1553 1583 1682
Goodwill & Int. 22703 28624 29607 33034 35055 33659 35507 40888 40529 39353
Total Liab. ($B) 86.27 90.28 96.20 100.23 103.29 105.26 96.07 99.08 107.63 106.45
Long-Term Debt 26100 28624 31322 33270 39719 40722 39889 42168 46823 45812
Total Equity 22637 23046 20138 18860 22792 11868 14262 18246 17594 16796
D/E Ratio 1.15 1.24 1.56 1.76 1.74 3.43 2.80 2.31 2.66 2.73
Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Return on Assets 12.3% 13.3% 13.8% 14.1% 13.4% 9.9% 11.6% 10.4% 4.7% 7.0%
Return on Equity 74.4% 64.9% 73.4% 85.2% 79.1% 69.4% 101.% 73.0% 32.1% 50.8%
ROIC 27.9% 29.5% 30.7% 32.0% 28.7% 20.8% 24.6% 20.7% 9.2% 13.7%
Shares Out. 1305 1228 1163 1117 1054 990 965 946 922 892
Revenue/Share 71.39 77.58 88.09 89.03 89.18 91.87 83.18 83.36 84.43 86.86
FCF/Share 12.45 11.49 12.51 12.87 12.10 12.56 13.33 13.49 13.82 12.31

53
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$-
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
International Business Machinces Corp. (IBM) Dividend Yield History
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999

1998
Price
1997
1996
1995
Yield
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
12.00%
10.00%
8.00%
6.00%
4.00%
2.00%
0.00%
54
International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) Fundamentals

$20.00 100%
90%
$15.00 80%
70%
$10.00 60%
50%
$5.00 40%
30%
$- 20%
10%
$(5.00) 0%
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
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1999
2000
2001
2002
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2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019

55
International Business Machines Corp. (IBM): Valuation Analysis

25
21.5
20 19.2
18.2
17.7
15.1
15
11.8
10.5 10.6
9.8 9.9
10
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Average Annual PE Ratio Current PE 10-Year Average

56
Closing Thoughts
- Predictions for the 2020s -
As we explored in this month’s Opening Thoughts, the 2010s were an excellent time to be invested in
the stock market. This has caused investors to wonder if the decade ahead will be similarly prosperous.
In this month’s Closing Thoughts, we want to share a few predictions of events that we believe are
likely to occur in the next decade.
First, we believe that the next decade’s overall asset class returns are likely to be significantly lower
than they were in the 2010s. Indeed, stock market returns over the last decade were much higher than
their long-term average. The S&P 500’s inflation-adjusted return during the 2010s was over 11% per
year, versus an average of 6.8% since 1871 (using data from Yale University’s Robert Shiller).
This is unlikely to repeat itself moving forward, largely because of valuations. Just like recent returns,
current valuations are much higher than their long-run norm. The S&P 500’s cyclically-adjusted price-
to-earnings ratio (CAPE) – which divides the index’s current price by its average earnings over the last
10 years – is higher than it has been at any point outside of the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s. The
S&P 500’s CAPE is currently 31.2, compared to a long-run mean of 16.7 and a long-run median of
15.8.
We aren’t the only investment research firm who believes returns will be lower moving forward. AQR
Capital Management’s widely-circulated Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes (shown
below, but not yet updated for January 2020) is often used by pension plans and other institutional
investors to determine funding ratios. They believe U.S. equities are likely to deliver real returns of
around 4% over the next decade – nearly 300 basis points below the long-run average.
Source: AQR Capital Management

Disclaimer
Nothing presented herein is, or is intended to constitute, specific investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter should be construed as a recommendation to follow any
investment strategy or allocation. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results are expected to vary from any such statements
or forecasts. No reliance should be placed on any such statements or forecasts when making any investment decision. While Sure Dividend has used reasonable efforts
to obtain information from reliable sources, we make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of third-party information presented
herein. No guarantee of investment performance is being provided and no inference to the contrary should be made. There is a risk of loss from an investment in
securities. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
57
While poor market-wide returns are certainly negative for the average investor, we believe it will
present better opportunities for an active investment strategy (such as the one published in this
newsletter) to generate outperformance.
Our second assumption is with respect to investment fees. As has been widely publicized, October
2019 saw the commencement of a brutal fee war in the discount brokerage industry that saw Charles
Schwab, TD Ameritrade, and Interactive Brokers reduce their trading commissions to zero. Just this
week Vanguard followed suite by announcing the launch of commission-free online trading for stocks
and options to Vanguard Brokerage clients.
Looking ahead, we believe further fee compression will occur in the investment management industry.
Discount brokerages have already gone to zero, so additional compression is likely to be seen in
advisor fees, fund management ratios, and other non-commission expenses.
Our last prediction of this month’s letter is that we will see a resurgence in the outperformance of value
stocks. As we explored in this month’s Opening Thoughts, value stocks have performed relatively
poorly over the last decade – which is in stark contrast to the strategy’s historical performance.
However, this trend reversed itself over the second half of 2019, and given the empirical evidence
supporting this logical investment strategy, we would not be surprised to see this continue moving
forward.
To close, we wanted to mention that although making predictions is an essential part of investing, it is
better to first ensure that you’ve nailed down all the certainties in investing. Said differently, before
spending time wondering what the next decade will look like, you should first make sure that your
current decisions – with respect to investment fees, savings rates, and other ‘low-hanging fruits’ – are
optimized. No one can predict market moves with certainty. Take the above predictions as
possibilities rather than as inevitable outcomes. With that said, we note that the success of our strategy
of buying and holding high-quality dividend growth stocks that trade at fair (or better) prices is not
dependent on these predictions being fulfilled.
Thanks,
Nick McCullum
The next newsletter Sure Dividend Newsletter publishes on Sunday, February 2nd, 2020
Disclaimer
Nothing presented herein is, or is intended to constitute, specific investment advice. Nothing in this newsletter should be construed as a recommendation to follow any
investment strategy or allocation. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results are expected to vary from any such statements
or forecasts. No reliance should be placed on any such statements or forecasts when making any investment decision. While Sure Dividend has used reasonable efforts
to obtain information from reliable sources, we make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of third-party information presented
herein. No guarantee of investment performance is being provided and no inference to the contrary should be made. There is a risk of loss from an investment in
securities. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
58
Real Money Portfolio

The Sure Dividend Real Money Portfolio tracks our actual investment decisions in real time,
with real money.
Each month we will save and invest $1,000 to show the actual progress of building and
maintaining a dividend growth portfolio.
Our buy decisions will be the highest ranked stock in the Top 10 that we either do not own or
own the least in our portfolio. We will not place buys that push the portfolio over 30% in any
one sector (after the portfolio reaches a reasonable number of positions) to prevent over-
concentration in any sector. The portfolio will hold up to 30 stocks. Once 30 stocks are
reached, it will buy the highest ranked stock already in the portfolio up to 10% of the portfolio’s
value. Sell decisions are based on the same sell criteria used in The Sure Dividend Newsletter.
We are using Interactive Brokers as our brokerage for this portfolio. Buy orders for our trades
will be placed the second trading day after The Sure Dividend Newsletter is published. This
gives our readers who are following the real money portfolio a full trading day to make the
same trade we will make in advance of us.
Our next buy will be M&T Bank (MTB), which is the highest ranked stock in this month’s
newsletter that isn’t currently in the Real Money Portfolio.
The screenshot from our brokerage account below shows our current 10 holdings in The Real
Money Portfolio.
Including dividends, cash for January’s purchase, and transaction costs, the account has a total
value of $13,869.06 versus $13,000.00 invested.
Performance will become meaningful as both the number of holdings in our portfolio grows,
and the amount of time each security has been held increases.
Note: Performance data is through the morning of 1/3/20.
59
Buying & Ranking Criteria

The method we use to come up with the Top 10 list for The Sure Dividend Newsletter is as
follows:
Note: Ranking data is from the preceding Wednesday’s Sure Analysis data update.
1. Filter our Sure Analysis Research Database universe of securities for:
- 10%+ Expected Total Returns
- A & B Dividend Risk Scores
- U.S. securities only (no international securities, REITs, MLPs, or BDCs, etc.)
- All companies must have their dividend covered by cash flows
2. Sort by Expected Total Return (highest first)
3. No more than three companies per sector
4. Veto any securities from the Top 10 as necessary after qualitative analysis
5. The Top 10 is the 10 highest Expected Total Return securities from steps 1 through 4
6. “A” Dividend Risk Score securities rank ahead of “B” Dividend Risk Score securities
within the Top 10
To receive an “A” Dividend Risk Score, a security must be in the top 20% for dividend safety.
To receive a “B” Dividend Risk Score, a security must be in the top 40% for dividend safety.
The formula for the Dividend Risk Score is below:
Dividend Risk Score (Raw) = Payout Ratio x 100 – # Years of Steady or Rising Dividends + 50
if deemed risky during a recession
We view securities with A and B Dividend Risk Scores as generally having secure dividends
that are very unlikely to be reduced in the near future.
Our formula for Expected Total Return is calculated as the product of 5-year expected returns
from growth on a per share basis, 5-year expected returns from valuation multiple changes, and
the current dividend yield.
The combination of expected total returns and low dividend risk creates a screen to find high-
quality dividend growth securities with strong return potential.
Note that our expected total returns are based on the idea that the economy will continue
forward ‘as is’ for the foreseeable future, and not encounter a recession. Recessions happen, of
course, and we seek to recommend securities likely to pay steady or rising dividends during
recessions. Recession safety factors into our Dividend Risk Scores, and in turn our rankings for
The Sure Dividend Newsletter.
60
Portfolio Building Guide

The process of building a high-quality dividend growth portfolio does not have to be complex: Each month
invest in the top-ranked security in which you own the smallest dollar amount out of the Top 10. Over
time, you will build a well-diversified portfolio of great businesses purchased at attractive prices. Alternatively,
the Top 10 list is also useful as an idea generation tool for those with a different portfolio allocation plan.
If you are looking to add higher yielding securities to your portfolio, The Sure Retirement Newsletter offers a
Top 10 list with 4%+ dividend yields. The Sure Analysis Research Database includes of 600+ (and growing)
securities, most of which we analyze quarterly and provide Dividend Risk scores and 5-year forward expected
total returns (among other metrics).
Examples
Portfolio 1 Portfolio 2
Ticker Name Amount Ticker Name Amount
WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance $ 1,002 WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance $ 4,374
OZK Bank OZK $ - OZK Bank OZK $ 4,878
T AT&T $ - T AT&T $ 4,353
MTB M&T Bank $ - MTB M&T Bank $ 7,428
WHR Whirlpool $ - WHR Whirlpool $ 3,309
MO Altria $ - MO Altria $ 8,099
CMI Cummins $ - CMI Cummins $ 5,629
PBCT People’s United Financial $ - PBCT People’s United Financial $ 2,176
LMT Lockheed Martin $ - LMT Lockheed Martin $ 1,079
IBM IBM $ - IBM IBM $ 4,864
- If you had portfolio 1, you would buy OZK, the top-ranked security you own least.
- If you had portfolio 2, you would buy LMT, the top-ranked security you own least.
If you have an existing portfolio or a large lump sum to invest, you may wish to switch over to the Sure
Dividend Strategy over a 20-month period. Each month take 1/20 of your initial portfolio value and buy the
top-ranked security you own the least out of the Top 10. When you sell a security, use the proceeds to purchase
the top-ranked security you own the least. Reinvest dividends in the same manner.
This simple investing process will build a diversified portfolio of high-quality dividend securities over a period
of less than two years. Further, higher ranked securities will receive proportionately more investment dollars as
they will stay in the Top 10 rankings longer. You will build up large positions in the highest-quality securities
over your investing career.
If your portfolio grows too large to manage comfortably (for example, you are not comfortable holding 40+
securities – which would happen after around four years of using the Sure Dividend System), you will need to
sell holdings. I recommend eliminating positions that have the lowest yields if you are in or near retirement. If
you are not near retirement, eliminate positions that rank the lowest in the newsletter until you are comfortable
with the number of positions in your portfolio. Reinvest the proceeds into the highest-ranked securities you
currently own, until your highest-ranked holding makes up 10% of your portfolio’s total value. Then add to the
next highest-ranked holding, and so on.
61
Past Recommendations & Sells

Every past Sure Dividend Newsletter recommendation from the Top 10 is shown in this section 3. The sell rules
that govern this newsletter are below. Except in extreme circumstances, we will not issue sell recommendations
– even if the sell rules below are triggered – unless a security has been held for one year or longer to qualify for
the lower long-term capital gains tax rates in taxable accounts.
Sell Rules
Sell Rule #1, Dividend-Based Sell Rules: Any past recommendation that reduces or eliminates its dividend is
automatically a pending sell. We review and analyze these securities to determine when to initiate the final
sale. Secondly, any past recommendation that has an “F” Dividend Risk Score is reviewed as a potential sell.
Sell Rule #2, Valuation-Based Sell Rules: Sell past recommendations with expected total returns below the
expected total returns of the S&P 500 over the next several years. This sell rule replaces our previous
valuation-based sell rule of selling securities with an adjusted P/E ratio of 40 or higher. We calculate our
estimate of the long-term returns of the S&P 500 as the S&P 500’s dividend yield plus nominal (not inflation
adjusted) GDP growth, less valuation multiple mean reversion over 10 years. We currently estimate long-term
U.S. nominal GDP growth at 5.5%, the S&P 500’s dividend yield at 1.8%, and valuation multiple mean
reversion at -4.2% (S&P 500 fair value P/E of 15.8 versus current P/E of 24.3) for an expected total return sell
threshold of 3.1%. Past recommendations at or below this sell threshold are bolded and in red in the table
below. We will only recommend up to two valuation-based sells a month so that the reinvestment of sale
proceeds is not concentrated in a short time frame.
Unsold Past Recommendations

5-Year S&P 500
Time Since 1st
DR Expected Total (SPY)
Name Ticker Recommended CAGR5
Score Total Return4 Total
(Years)
Return Return
Kimberly-Clark KMB 5.7 B 4.9% 54.8% 7.9% 12.4%
ExxonMobil XOM 5.7 F 11.3% -9.4% -1.7% 12.4%
3M MMM 5.7 A 4.4% 46.1% 6.9% 12.2%
Genuine Parts Company GPC 5.7 A 5.6% 44.0% 6.6% 12.2%
Becton, Dickinson BDX 5.6 A 7.6% 149.8% 17.8% 11.9%
AT&T T 5.6 B 10.6% 48.2% 7.3% 11.9%
Philip Morris PM 5.6 F 8.0% 27.3% 4.4% 11.9%
General Mills GIS 5.6 D 7.6% 15.7% 2.7% 11.9%
J.M. Smucker SJM 5.4 C 9.5% 16.8% 2.9% 12.1%
Kellogg K 5.1 C 5.1% 20.6% 3.8% 11.5%
Altria MO 4.7 B 9.5% 20.2% 4.0% 11.9%
3 This does not include our past “special recommendations” or international recommendations from years ago because they are outside
the scope of the regular Sure Dividend Newsletter strategy and Top 10. We are not tracking when to sell or performance of those
recommendations.
4 Data through morning of 1/3/20
5 Compound annual growth rate (using total returns) is only calculated for past recommendations with holding periods of 1 year or
more.
62
W.W. Grainger GWW 4.5 A 7.1% 57.9% 10.7% 12.6%

Caterpillar CAT 4.4 A 7.8% 118.9% 19.4% 12.5%
United Technology UTX 4.4 B 3.5% 70.6% 12.9% 12.5%
BCE BCE 4.4 F 6.5% 39.4% 7.8% 12.5%
Eaton ETN 4.3 C 2.9% 91.7% 16.3% 14.4%
Cummins CMI 4.2 B 10.0% 86.5% 16.1% 13.1%
Johnson & Johnson JNJ 4.2 A 6.9% 59.4% 11.8% 13.1%
Verizon VZ 4.1 C 9.3% 57.2% 11.7% 13.7%
Johnson Controls JCI 4.1 D 6.4% 44.6% 9.5% 13.7%
Archer-Daniels-Midland ADM 3.9 A 7.8% 56.7% 12.2% 17.6%
General Dynamics GD 3.8 A 6.8% 45.1% 10.2% 15.6%
Flowers Foods FLO 3.8 D 5.1% 36.0% 8.4% 15.6%
Cardinal Health CAH 3.7 A 7.3% -30.2% -9.3% 15.0%
Disney DIS 3.6 B 4.0% 57.4% 13.5% 14.9%
Phillips 66 PSX 3.5 C 7.8% 57.1% 13.8% 15.5%
Walgreens Boots Alliance WBA 3.3 A 11.9% -22.3% -7.3% 14.7%
AbbVie ABBV 3.2 C 15.4% 60.8% 15.7% 15.4%
Medtronic MDT 3.1 A 1.9% 70.9% 19.0% 15.4%
Lowe's LOW 2.7 A 6.4% 45.2% 15.1% 14.1%
IBM IBM 2.7 B 8.5% -1.9% -0.7% 14.1%
Macy's M 2.7 D 7.5% -31.7% -13.4% 14.1%
Ameriprise Financial AMP 2.6 A 11.9% 45.3% 15.6% 13.7%
CVS Health CVS 2.6 B 8.2% 1.1% 0.4% 13.7%
Occidental Petroleum OXY 2.6 F 10.9% -16.3% -6.7% 13.7%
Royal Dutch Shell RDS.B 2.5 F 8.6% 28.9% 10.7% 14.3%
Kohl's KSS 2.3 D 7.1% 33.2% 13.1% 14.7%
HNI HNI 2.1 C 10.5% 15.0% 6.9% 12.4%
ONEOK OKE 2.0 D 7.1% 49.0% 22.3% 10.7%
Leggett & Platt LEG 2.0 B 5.0% 10.8% 5.3% 10.7%
Southwest Airlines LUV 1.9 A 7.4% -3.8% -2.0% 13.3%
Invesco IVZ 1.8 C 10.7% -40.6% -24.7% 12.0%
Franklin Resources BEN 1.8 A 8.9% -20.6% -12.3% 15.9%
Northrop Grumman NOC 1.2 A 7.1% 35.6% 30.0% 17.8%
United Parcel Service UPS 1.2 C 9.8% 12.8% 11.0% 17.8%
S&P Global SPGI 1.1 A 2.9% 50.8% 46.1% 16.9%
Eaton Vance EV 1.0 A 4.9% 33.2% N/A N/A
63
Whirlpool WHR 1.0 B 10.0% 30.0% N/A N/A

Bank OZK OZK 1.0 A 13.6% 25.5% N/A N/A
Hanesbrands HBI 1.0 C 10.6% 11.4% N/A N/A
Newell Brands NWL 1.0 D 9.9% 1.3% N/A N/A
Western Digital WDC 0.9 F -6.5% 39.4% N/A N/A
T. Rowe Price TROW 0.9 A 5.6% 34.2% N/A N/A
WestRock WRK 0.8 C 8.2% 16.4% N/A N/A
People's United Financial PBCT 0.7 B 9.5% 0.8% N/A N/A
Foot Locker FL 0.6 B 10.5% -4.0% N/A N/A
MSC Industrial MSM 0.5 C 8.4% 8.7% N/A N/A
Snap-on SNA 0.4 B 8.6% 13.4% N/A N/A
A.O. Smith AOS 0.4 B 7.7% 7.7% N/A N/A
UnitedHealth UNH 0.2 B 8.0% 32.3% N/A N/A
M&T Bank MTB 0.2 B 10.0% 10.2% N/A N/A
FedEx FDX 0.2 A 9.7% 7.6% N/A N/A
Comcast CMCSA 0.2 B 7.7% 1.0% N/A N/A
Textron TXT 0.2 A 15.7% -6.4% N/A N/A
Lockheed Martin LMT 0.0 B 8.8% N/A N/A N/A
Pending Sells
Illinois Tool Works (ITW) and Deere & Company (DE): See this month’s sell analysis near the beginning
of this newsletter for more information on these two pending sells.
64
Sold Positions
Name Ticker 1st Rec. Date Sell Date Total Return S&P 500 Total Return6
Chubb (old Chubb) CB 4/7/2014 7/6/2015 32.1% 14.9%
Baxalta (acquired) BXLT 7/6/2015 2/8/2016 15.4% -9.3%
ConocoPhillips COP 12/8/2014 10/8/2018 34.4% 50.8%
Helmerich & Payne HP 2/2/2015 12/3/2018 17.5% 48.9%
Vector VGR 8/7/2017 12/3/2018 -28.7% 15.3%
Abbott ABT 7/7/2014 1/7/2019 83.6% 40.9%
Hormel HRL 12/5/2016 1/7/2019 30.2% 20.3%
Ecolab ECL 10/6/2014 2/4/2019 70.4% 66.8%
Wal-Mart WMT 4/7/2014 2/4/2019 43.4% 66.8%
Clorox CLX 4/7/2014 3/4/2019 100.5% 72.6%
Nike NKE 5/8/2017 3/4/2019 61.6% 25.0%
Church & Dwight CHD 4/2/2018 4/8/2019 50.2% 14.3%
Computer Services CSVI 11/2/2015 6/3/2019 105.4% 39.9%
Axis Capital AXS 1/8/2018 6/3/2019 28.2% 2.6%
VF Corp. VFC 11/7/2016 7/8/2019 73.0% 46.9%
AFLAC AFL 4/7/2014 7/8/2019 108.0% 78.7%
Procter & Gamble PG 12/7/2015 8/5/2019 62.5% 46.8%
Mondelez MDLZ 4/3/2017 8/5/2019 27.3% 25.9%
Boeing BA 10/3/2016 9/3/2019 187.6% 42.1%
McDonald’s MCD 4/7/2014 9/3/2019 162.0% 75.0%
Owens & Minor OMI 1/8/2018 10/7/2019 -67.0% 10.6%
Coca-Cola KO 4/7/2014 10/7/2019 66.5% 77.2%
Qualcomm QCOM 6/5/2017 11/4/2019 57.7% 32.1%
Universal Corp. UVV 2/5/2018 11/4/2019 30.0% 20.3%
Target TGT 4/7/2014 12/2/2019 147.9% 88.4%
PepsiCo PEP 4/7/2014 12/2/2019 90.3% 88.4%
6 S&P 500 total returns are measured by the investable S&P 500 ETF (SPY).
65
List of Stocks by Dividend Risk Score

Each of the securities in the Sure Analysis Research Database are grouped according to Dividend
Risk Score and sorted (from highest to lowest) by Expected Total Returns. Dividend or distribution
yield is included next to each security’s ticker symbol. The Dividend Risk Score uses payout ratio,
dividend history, and recession resiliency to measure a company’s dividend safety. You can learn
more about how the score is calculated in the Sure Analysis Glossary. These rankings will not
always align with our Top 10 due to additional safety constraints we impose outside of the Top 10.
See our ‘Buying and Ranking Criteria’ for more information.
41. Parker-Hannifin Corp. (PH): 1.6%

A-Rated Dividend Risk Stocks 42. Lowe's Cos. Inc. (LOW): 1.7%
1. Textron Inc. (TXT): 0.2% 43. Enterprise Bancorp Inc. (EBTC): 1.9%
2. Bank OZK (OZK): 3% 44. United Bankshares Inc. (West Virginia) (UBSI): 3.5%
3. Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (California) (FMCB): 1.8% 45. Pentair plc (PNR): 1.6%
4. Ameriprise Financial Inc. (AMP): 2.3% 46. T. Rowe Price Grp. Inc. (TROW): 2.4%
5. Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (WBA): 3% 47. BancFirst Corp. (Oklahoma) (BANF): 1.9%
6. The Goldman Sachs Grp. Inc. (GS): 1.6% 48. Visa Inc. (V): 0.5%
7. Old Republic Intl. Corp. (ORI): 3.6% 49. Canadian National Railway Co. (CNI): 1.7%
8. McKesson Corp. (MCK): 1.2% 50. ABM Industries Inc. (ABM): 1.9%
9. National Fuel Gas Co. (NFG): 3.7% 51. Genuine Parts Co. (GPC): 2.8%
10. FedEx Corp. (FDX): 1.7% 52. Community Trust Bancorp Inc. (Kentucky) (CTBI): 3.1%
11. Ping An Ins. (Grp.) Co. of China Ltd (PNGAY): 0.7% 53. SEI Investments Co. (SEIC): 1%
12. Albemarle Corp. (ALB): 2% 54. Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP): 1.9%
13. Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO): 2.3%
55. SK Telecom Co. Ltd (SKM): 0.4%
14. UGI Corp. (UGI): 2.6%
56. Carlisle Cos. Inc. (CSL): 1%
15. Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY): 2.2%
57. Stanley Black & Decker Inc. (SWK): 1.6%
16. Perrigo Co. plc (PRGO): 1.6%
58. Eaton Vance Corp. (EV): 3%
17. Stryker Corp. (SYK): 1%
59. 3M Co. (MMM): 3.2%
18. UMB Financial Corp. (UMBF): 1.7%
60. Oshkosh Corp. (OSK): 1.1%
19. Franklin Resources Inc. (BEN): 4%
61. PSB Hldgs. Inc. (Wisconsin) (PSBQ): 1.4%
20. Donaldson Co. Inc. (DCI): 1.4%
62. PPG Industries Inc. (PPG): 1.5%
21. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT): 2.4%
63. Emerson Electric Co. (EMR): 2.6%
22. AmerisourceBergen Corp. (ABC): 1.9%
64. Aflac Inc. (AFL): 2%
23. NACCO Industries Inc. (NC): 1.5%
65. Chubb Ltd (CB): 1.9%
24. Weyco Grp. Inc. (WEYS): 3.6%
66. First Financial Corp. (Indiana) (THFF): 2.3%
25. Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. (ADM): 3%
67. Sysco Corp. (SYY): 1.8%
26. Chesapeake Financial Shares Inc. (Maryland) (CPKF): 2%
68. H.B. Fuller Co. (FUL): 1.2%
27. Xerox Hldgs. Corp. (XRX): 1.4%
69. Mastercard Inc. (MA): 0.4%
28. Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV): 1.3%
70. S&P Global Inc. (SPGI): 0.8%
29. Becton, Dickinson & Co. (BDX): 1.1%
71. Black Hills Corp. (BKH): 2.6%
30. W.W. Grainger Inc. (GWW): 1.7%
72. Dover Corp. (DOV): 1.7%
31. PACCAR Inc. (PCAR): 1.6%
73. AptarGroup. Inc. (ATR): 1.2%
32. Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC): 1.4%
74. Ross Stores Inc. (ROST): 0.8%
33. Brookfield Asset Mgmt. Inc. (BAM): 1.1%
75. Procter & Gamble Co. (PG): 2.4%
34. 1st Source Corp. (SRCE): 2%
76. Computer Srvcs. Inc. (CSVI): 1.6%
35. CSX Corp. (CSX): 1.3%
77. Medtronic plc (MDT): 1.8%
36. General Dynamics Corp. (GD): 2.3%
78. Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW): 2.3%
37. Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd (CP): 0.9%
79. Brown & Brown Inc. (BRO): 0.8%
38. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): 2.5%
80. Brady Corp. (BRC): 1.5%
39. Telephone & Data Systems Inc. (TDS): 2.6%
81. Commerce Bancshares Inc. (Missouri) (CBSH): 1.5%
40. L3Harris Technologies Inc. (LHX): 1.4%
66
82. Target Corp. (TGT): 2% 21. Magna Intl. Inc. (MGA): 2.6%
83. The Sherwin-Williams Co. (SHW): 0.7% 22. HP Inc. (HPQ): 3.1%
84. Roper Technologies Inc. (ROP): 0.5% 23. People's United Financial Inc. (PBCT): 4.2%
85. McCormick & Co. Inc. (MKC): 1.3% 24. Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT): 2.2%
86. MSA Safety Inc. (MSA): 1.3% 25. Altria Grp. Inc. (MO): 6.5%
87. Franklin Electric Co. Inc. (FELE): 1% 26. Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. (CTSH): 1.3%
88. Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL): 2.5% 27. International Business Machines Corp. (IBM): 4.8%
89. NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA): 0.3% 28. Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA (FMS): 1.8%
90. Tennant Co. (TNC): 1.1% 29. Snap-On Inc. (SNA): 2.3%
91. Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP): 0.2% 30. Polaris Inc. (PII): 2.4%
92. RPM Intl. Inc. (RPM): 1.8% 31. Alaska Air Grp. Inc. (ALK): 2%
93. General Electric Co. (GE): 0.4% 32. CVS Health Corp. (CVS): 2.7%
94. Tootsie Roll Industries Inc. (TR): 1% 33. UnitedHealth Grp. Inc. (UNH): 1.3%
95. Ecolab Inc. (ECL): 1% 34. Petróleo Brasileiro SA (PBR): 1.4%
96. Sony Corp. (SNE): 0.5% 35. Toyota Motor Corp. (TM): 2.9%
97. Hormel Foods Corp. (HRL): 1.9% 36. The Toro Co. (TTC): 1.1%
98. The Gorman-Rupp Co. (GRC): 1.4% 37. A. O. Smith Corp. (AOS): 1.8%
99. SJW Grp. (SJW): 1.6% 38. Comcast Corp. (CMCSA): 1.8%
100. Stepan Co. (SCL): 1% 39. Hawaiian Hldgs. Inc. (HA): 1.6%
101. Tompkins Financial Corp. (TMP): 2.2% 40. Fortis Inc. (FTS): 3.3%
102. Nordson Corp. (NDSN): 0.9% 41. Intel Corp. (INTC): 2.1%
103. Walmart Inc. (WMT): 1.8% 42. The Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (BK): 2.3%
104. Brown-Forman Corp. (BF.B): 1% 43. Fairfax Financial Hldgs. Ltd (FRFHF): 2.1%
105. Cintas Corp. (CTAS): 0.8% 44. Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE): 1.2%
106. Nucor Corp. (NUE): 2.9% 45. American Express Co. (AXP): 1.3%
107. Dillard's Inc. (DDS): 0.6% 46. Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL): 2.5%
108. Yamana Gold Inc. (AUY): 0.6% 47. U.S. Bancorp (USB): 2.6%
109. Cincinnati Financial Corp. (CINF): 2.1% 48. Domino's Pizza Inc. (DPZ): 0.9%
110. Middlesex Water Co. (MSEX): 1.5% 49. The Travelers Cos. Inc. (TRV): 2.3%
111. Badger Meter Inc. (BMI): 0.9% 50. Honda Motor Co. Ltd (HMC): 2.7%
112. Lancaster Colony Corp. (LANC): 1.6% 51. NextEra Energy Partners LP (NEP): 3.6%
113. California Water Service Grp. (CWT): 1.5% 52. Williams-Sonoma Inc. (WSM): 2.5%
114. American States Water Co. (AWR): 1.3% 53. R.R. Donnelley & Sons Co. (RRD): 3.2%
115. West Pharmaceutical Srvcs. Inc. (WST): 0.4% 54. Kansas City Southern (KSU): 0.9%
116. RLI Corp. (RLI): 1% 55. Fox Corp. (FOXA): 1.2%
56. Sonoco Products Co. (SON): 2.7%
57. Bank of America Corp. (BAC): 1.8%
B-Rated Dividend Risk Stocks 58. The TJX Cos. Inc. (TJX): 1.4%
1. Red Eléctrica Corp. SA (RDEIY): 4% 59. Assurant Inc. (AIZ): 1.8%
2. Fluor Corp. (FLR): 4.5% 60. Xylem Inc. (XYL): 1.2%
3. POSCO (PKX): 2.8% 61. Aon plc (AON): 0.8%
4. Synchrony Financial (SYF): 2.4% 62. MDU Resources Grp. Inc. (MDU): 2.7%
5. Principal Financial Grp. Inc. (PFG): 4% 63. Leggett & Platt Inc. (LEG): 3.1%
6. Cardinal Health Inc. (CAH): 3.8% 64. The Kroger Co. (KR): 2.1%
7. eBay Inc. (EBAY): 1.2% 65. Kimberly-Clark Corp. (KMB): 3%
8. Tractor Supply Co. (TSCO): 1.4% 66. The Walt Disney Co. (DIS): 1.2%
9. Navient Corp. (NAVI): 4.7% 67. Dollar General Corp. (DG): 0.8%
10. AT&T Inc. (T): 5.2% 68. Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY): 2.6%
11. Whirlpool Corp. (WHR): 3.2% 69. Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC): 1.8%
12. Prudential Financial Inc. (PRU): 4.2% 70. Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc. (CFR): 2.8%
13. M&T Bank Corp. (MTB): 2.4% 71. Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT): 1.4%
14. Royal Bank of Canada (RY): 3.9% 72. Novartis AG (NVS): 1.9%
15. Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT): 3.2% 73. Church & Dwight Co. Inc. (CHD): 1.3%
16. HollyFrontier Corp. (HFC): 2.6% 74. United Technologies Corp. (UTX): 2%
17. Cummins Inc. (CMI): 2.6% 75. Lam Research Corp. (LRCX): 1.5%
18. Foot Locker Inc. (FL): 3.8% 76. KLA Corp. (KLAC): 1.7%
19. Oracle Corp. (ORCL): 1.7% 77. The Allstate Corp. (ALL): 1.8%
20. Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL): 2.2% 78. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM): 2.4%
79. Ingersoll-Rand plc (IR): 1.6%
67
80. Everest Re Grp. Ltd (RE): 2% 19. Sun Life Financial Inc. (SLF): 3.4%
81. Best Buy Co. Inc. (BBY): 2.2% 20. Hanesbrands Inc. (HBI): 4.1%
82. Raytheon Co. (RTN): 1.7% 21. Carnival Corp. (CCL): 3.9%
83. Owens & Minor Inc. (OMI): 1.6% 22. Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO): 2.9%
84. Skyworks Solutions Inc. (SWKS): 1.3% 23. Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI): 4.3%
85. Vale SA (VALE): 2.6% 24. Pearson plc (PSO): 2.9%
86. Microsoft Corp. (MSFT): 1.2% 25. Eagle Financial Srvcs. Inc. (EFSI): 3.2%
87. PepsiCo Inc. (PEP): 2.8% 26. United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS): 3.3%
88. Arrow Financial Corp. (AROW): 2.7% 27. Bank of Montreal (BMO): 4%
89. Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST): 0.9% 28. Broadcom Inc. (AVGO): 3.4%
90. Aptiv plc (APTV): 0.9% 29. Enbridge Inc. (ENB): 5.5%
91. The Coca-Cola Co. (KO): 2.9% 30. Marvell Technology Grp. Ltd (MRVL): 0.9%
92. Union Pacific Corp. (UNP): 2% 31. BNP Paribas SA (BNPQF): 5.1%
93. Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN): 1.7% 32. The J. M. Smucker Co. (SJM): 3.4%
94. Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corp. (BAH): 1.2% 33. Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ): 4%
95. McDonald's Corp. (MCD): 2.4% 34. Jack in the Box Inc. (JACK): 2.1%
96. Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. (HII): 1.4% 35. Lazard Ltd (LAZ): 4.6%
97. The Clorox Co. (CLX): 2.6% 36. CNOOC Ltd (CEO): 5.1%
98. NIKE Inc. (NKE): 0.9% 37. KeyCorp (KEY): 3.4%
99. Marriott Intl. Inc. (MAR): 1.2% 38. Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC): 3.4%
100. Morningstar Inc. (MORN): 0.7% 39. Ryder System Inc. (R): 4.1%
101. Consolidated Edison Inc. (ED): 3.3% 40. Corning Inc. (GLW): 2.7%
102. Community Bank System Inc. (CBU): 2.2% 41. WestRock Co. (WRK): 4.3%
103. Accenture plc (ACN): 1.4% 42. Chevron Corp. (CVX): 3.9%
104. McGrath RentCorp (MGRC): 1.9% 43. MSC Industrial Direct Co. Inc. (MSM): 3.3%
105. CAE Inc. (CAE): 1.2% 44. Huntington Bancshares Inc. (HBAN): 3.8%
106. VF Corp. (VFC): 2% 45. NetApp Inc. (NTAP): 2.9%
107. Linde plc (LIN): 1.6% 46. Phillips 66 (PSX): 3.1%
108. Westamerica Bancorporation (WABC): 2.4% 47. LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB): 4.4%
109. Air Products & Chemicals Inc. (APD): 1.9% 48. H&R Block Inc. (HRB): 4.4%
110. Jack Henry & Associates Inc. (JKHY): 1.1% 49. BlackRock Inc. (BLK): 2.6%
111. Atmos Energy Corp. (ATO): 1.9% 50. Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG): 4%
112. Moody's Corp. (MCO): 0.8% 51. MetLife Inc. (MET): 3.4%
113. Apple Inc. (AAPL): 1% 52. Prosperity Bancshares Inc. (PB): 2.3%
114. Ferrari NV (RACE): 0.6% 53. Omnicom Grp. Inc. (OMC): 3.2%
115. Northwest Natural Holding Co. (NWN): 2.6% 54. SunTrust Banks Inc. (STI): 2.9%
116. MGE Energy Inc. (MGEE): 1.7% 55. Greif Inc. (GEF): 3.9%
56. The Home Depot Inc. (HD): 2.4%
57. Superior Plus Corp. (SUUIF): 5.6%
C-Rated Dividend Risk Stocks 58. Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (BUD): 2.4%
1. Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc. (SKT): 9.6% 59. Mondelez Intl. Inc. (MDLZ): 1.9%
2. Energy Transfer LP (ET): 9.6% 60. Kontoor Brands Inc. (KTB): 2.7%
3. AbbVie Inc. (ABBV): 4.8% 61. Calvin B. Taylor Bankshares Inc. (TYCB): 4.8%
4. Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD): 6.3% 62. National Bank of Canada (NTIOF): 3.6%
5. Banco Santander SA (SAN): 4.6% 63. Legg Mason Inc. (LM): 4.1%
6. The Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS): 4.7% 64. SAP SE (SAP): 1.3%
7. Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD): 3.8% 65. Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc. (CBRL): 3.3%
8. TechnipFMC plc (FTI): 2.4% 66. Bayer AG (BAYRY): 3.9%
9. BB&T Corp. (BBT): 3.1% 67. Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (ERIC): 1.2%
10. Genesis Energy LP (GEL): 10.7% 68. Starbucks Corp. (SBUX): 1.6%
11. Molson Coors Brewing Co. (TAP): 3.3% 69. Dunkin' Brands Grp. Inc. (DNKN): 2%
12. China Mobile Ltd (CHL): 4% 70. Amgen Inc. (AMGN): 2.4%
13. Consolidated Water Co. Ltd (CWCO): 2.1% 71. Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ): 1.6%
14. Sunoco LP (SUN): 10.8% 72. Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO): 1.5%
15. The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD): 3.9% 73. International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. (IFF): 2.3%
16. Invesco Ltd (IVZ): 6.8% 74. AXIS Capital Hldgs. Ltd (AXS): 2.7%
17. HNI Corp. (HNI): 3.2% 75. Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG): 1.8%
18. Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC): 3.4% 76. Yum! Brands Inc. (YUM): 1.6%
77. Kellogg Co. (K): 3.3%
68
78. Essex Property Trust Inc. (ESS): 2.6% 19. Deutsche Telekom AG (DTEGY): 4.8%
79. International Paper Co. (IP): 4.4% 20. Ford Motor Co. (F): 6.5%
80. Gazprom PJSC (OGZPY): 6.2% 21. British American Tobacco plc (BTI): 6%
81. Diageo plc (DEO): 2% 22. Newell Brands Inc. (NWL): 4.8%
82. John Wiley & Sons Inc. (JW.A): 2.8% 23. CenterPoint Energy Inc. (CNP): 4.2%
83. General Motors Co. (GM): 4.2% 24. Meredith Corp. (MDP): 7.1%
84. Logitech Intl. SA (LOGI): 1.5% 25. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM): 5.1%
85. Fastenal Co. (FAST): 2.3% 26. Brixmor Property Grp. Inc. (BRX): 5.2%
86. Conagra Brands Inc. (CAG): 2.5% 27. The Williams Cos. Inc. (WMB): 6.4%
87. Artesian Resources Corp. (ARTNA): 2.6% 28. Great-West Lifeco Inc. (GWLIF): 4.8%
88. QUALCOMM Inc. (QCOM): 2.8% 29. Eni SpA (E): 4.3%
89. Eaton Corp. plc (ETN): 2.9% 30. Sampo Oyj (SAXPY): 6%
90. Rockwell Automation Inc. (ROK): 1.9% 31. Gap Inc. (GPS): 5.4%
91. Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK): 2.4% 32. Pfizer Inc. (PFE): 3.7%
92. Honeywell Intl. Inc. (HON): 1.9% 33. Tapestry Inc. (TPR): 5.1%
93. Universal Corp. (UVV): 5.3% 34. Brookfield Infra. Partners LP (BIP): 4%
94. Deere & Co. (DE): 1.7% 35. Dream Global Real Estate Investment Trust (DUNDF): 4.2%
95. Autoliv Inc. (ALV): 2.9% 36. Sanofi (SNY): 3.4%
96. Edison Intl. (EIX): 3.3% 37. Healthcare Trust of America Inc. (HTA): 4.1%
97. ConocoPhillips (COP): 1.9% 38. Summit Hotel Properties Inc. (INN): 5.8%
98. America Móvil SAB de CV (AMX): 2.3% 39. General Mills Inc. (GIS): 3.7%
99. The Hershey Co. (HSY): 2% 40. TC Energy Corp. (TRP): 4.2%
100. Abbott Laboratories (ABT): 1.5% 41. Macy's Inc. (M): 9%
101. National Retail Properties Inc. (NNN): 3.8% 42. ONEOK Inc. (OKE): 4.6%
102. Tiffany & Co. (TIF): 1.7% 43. WPP plc (WPP): 5.4%
103. Erie Indemnity Co. (ERIE): 2.2% 44. Medical Properties Trust Inc. (MPW): 4.9%
104. ResMed Inc. (RMD): 1% 45. STAG Industrial Inc. (STAG): 4.6%
105. American Tower Corp. (AMT): 1.6% 46. Dominion Energy Inc. (D): 4.4%
106. Waste Mgmt. Inc. (WM): 1.8% 47. Public Storage (PSA): 3.8%
107. NextEra Energy Inc. (NEE): 2% 48. Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN): 2.5%
108. Nestlé SA (NSRGY): 2.2% 49. Johnson Controls Intl. plc (JCI): 2.6%
109. CME Grp. Inc. (CME): 1.5% 50. Digital Realty Trust Inc. (DLR): 3.6%
110. Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY): 1.9% 51. Boston Properties Inc. (BXP): 2.8%
111. The Western Union Co. (WU): 2.9% 52. Infosys Ltd (INFY): 3.1%
112. Aqua America Inc. (WTR): 1.9% 53. GlaxoSmithKline plc (GSK): 4.2%
113. Entergy Corp. (ETR): 3.1% 54. Waddell & Reed Financial Inc. (WDR): 6%
114. Newmont Goldcorp Corp. (NEM): 1.3% 55. Lamar Advertising Co. (LAMR): 4.3%
115. Barrick Gold Corp. (GOLD): 1.1% 56. Kohl's Corp. (KSS): 5.2%
57. Duke Energy Corp. (DUK): 4.1%
58. The Kraft Heinz Co. (KHC): 5.8%
D-Rated Dividend Risk Stocks 59. Host Hotels & Resorts Inc. (HST): 4.3%
1. Antero Midstream Corp. (AM): 12.5% 60. Société Générale SA (SCGLY): 7.1%
2. L Brands Inc. (LB): 8.3% 61. STORE Capital Corp. (STOR): 3.6%
3. Magellan Midstream Partners LP (MMP): 6.5% 62. Choice Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (PPRQF):
4. MPLX LP (MPLX): 10.3% 5.3%
5. American Airlines Grp. Inc. (AAL): 1.4% 63. Unilever plc (UL): 3.1%
6. Imperial Brands plc (IMBBY): 10.1% 64. Restaurant Brands Intl. Inc. (QSR): 3.1%
7. Taubman Centers Inc. (TCO): 8.7% 65. Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP): 2.1%
8. Simon Property Grp. Inc. (SPG): 5.6% 66. Rogers Communications Inc. (RCI): 3%
9. PacWest Bancorp (PACW): 6.3%
67. OUTFRONT Media Inc. (OUT): 5.4%
10. Brookfield Property Partners LP (BPY): 7.2%
68. Domtar Corp. (UFS): 4.6%
11. Discover Financial Srvcs. (DFS): 1.9%
69. Suncor Energy Inc. (SU): 3.7%
12. Telefónica SA (TEF): 6.3%
70. Brookfield Renewable Partners LP (BEP): 4.4%
13. Service Properties Trust (SVC): 8.9%
71. The Boeing Co. (BA): 2.4%
14. Total SA (TOT): 3.9%
72. American Electric Power Co. Inc. (AEP): 2.9%
15. Halliburton Co. (HAL): 2.9%
73. Office Properties Income Trust (OPI): 10.6%
16. China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (SNP): 6%
74. Kimco Realty Corp. (KIM): 5.4%
17. Nokia Oyj (NOK): 3%
75. Nordstrom Inc. (JWN): 3.6%
18. Darden Restaurants Inc. (DRI): 3%
76. Flowers Foods Inc. (FLO): 3.4%
69
77. BHP Grp. Ltd (BHP): 4.9% 16. Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM): 4.9%
78. Otter Tail Corp. (OTTR): 2.7% 17. Schlumberger NV (SLB): 5%
79. Vodafone Grp. plc (VOD): 4.9% 18. Inter Pipeline Ltd (IPPLF): 7.5%
80. Sempra Energy (SRE): 2.5% 19. Micro Focus Intl. plc (MFGP): 13.4%
81. CF Industries Hldgs. Inc. (CF): 2.5% 20. Citigroup Inc. (C): 2.3%
82. Canadian Natural Resources Ltd (CNQ): 3.4% 21. CoreSite Realty Corp. (COR): 4.2%
83. Daimler AG (DDAIF): 6% 22. CenturyLink Inc. (CTL): 9.8%
84. Ambev SA (ABEV): 2.5% 23. AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC): 11.6%
85. W.P. Carey Inc. (WPC): 5.2% 24. Artisan Partners Asset Mgmt. Inc. (APAM): 7.2%
86. Siemens AG (SIEGY): 3.4% 25. AllianceBernstein Holding LP (AB): 7.9%
87. Dow Inc. (DOW): 3.9% 26. AEGON NV (AEG): 6.2%
88. Valero Energy Corp. (VLO): 3.8% 27. Dynex Capital Inc. (DX): 12.4%
89. ABB Ltd (ABB): 3.3% 28. Capitala Finance Corp. (CPTA): 11.7%
90. Realty Income Corp. (O): 3.7% 29. Nutrien Ltd (NTR): 3.7%
91. DTE Energy Co. (DTE): 2.9% 30. Enerplus Corp. (ERF): 1.3%
92. Urstadt Biddle Properties Inc. (UBA): 4.5% 31. PermRock Royalty Trust (PRT): 16.1%
93. Rio Tinto plc (RIO): 5.6% 32. BP plc (BP): 6.5%
94. TC Pipelines LP (TCP): 6.2% 33. Sabra Health Care REIT Inc. (SBRA): 8.5%
95. Paychex Inc. (PAYX): 2.9% 34. ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR): 12.5%
96. Compass Diversified Hldgs. (CODI): 5.8% 35. VEREIT Inc. (VER): 6%
97. The Wendy's Co. (WEN): 1.7% 36. Chorus Aviation Inc. (CHRRF): 5.8%
98. Seagate Technology plc (STX): 4.3% 37. Royal Dutch Shell plc (RDS.B): 6.3%
99. TransAlta Renewables Inc. (TRSWF): 5.9% 38. Dine Brands Global Inc. (DIN): 3.2%
100. AvalonBay Communities Inc. (AVB): 2.9% 39. DuPont de Nemours Inc. (DD): 4.8%
101. The Southern Co. (SO): 3.9% 40. Macquarie Infra. Corp. (MIC): 9.3%
102. Equity Residential (EQR): 2.8% 41. New Residential Investment Corp. (NRZ): 12.5%
103. MGM Resorts Intl. (MGM): 1.5% 42. ArcelorMittal SA (MT): 1.1%
104. Dream Office Real Estate Investment Trust (DRETF): 3.1% 43. Chimera Investment Corp. (CIM): 9.7%
105. Campbell Soup Co. (CPB): 2.8% 44. Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMWYY): 4.8%
106. WEC Energy Grp. Inc. (WEC): 2.5% 45. Main Street Capital Corp. (MAIN): 5.6%
107. Hasbro Inc. (HAS): 2.5% 46. Crown Castle Intl. Corp. (CCI): 3.2%
108. PPL Corp. (PPL): 4.6% 47. Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc. (ARI): 10.1%
109. Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN): 2.5% 48. Senior Housing Properties Trust (SNH): 13.3%
110. Scholastic Corp. (SCHL): 1.6% 49. Ladder Capital Corp. (LADR): 7.5%
111. Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL): 2.5% 50. Swiss Re AG (SSREY): 4.9%
112. Canon Inc. (CAJ): 2.8% 51. Iron Mountain Inc. (IRM): 7.7%
113. Garmin Ltd (GRMN): 2.2% 52. USA Compression Partners LP (USAC): 11.7%
114. Universal Health Realty Income Trust (UHT): 2.3% 53. Omega Healthcare Investors Inc. (OHI): 6.3%
115. Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM): 1.2% 54. Ares Capital Corp. (ARCC): 8.6%
116. Kulicke & Soffa Industries Inc. (KLIC): 1.8% 55. Philip Morris Intl. Inc. (PM): 5.4%
56. Gaming & Leisure Properties Inc. (GLPI): 6.3%
57. Helmerich & Payne Inc. (HP): 6.2%
F-Rated Dividend Risk Stocks 58. LTC Properties Inc. (LTC): 5.1%
1. EQM Midstream Partners LP (EQM): 15.7% 59. Chatham Lodging Trust (CLDT): 7.2%
2. Six Flags Entertainment Corp. (SIX): 7.2% 60. Global Net Lease Inc. (GNL): 8.8%
3. Brookfield Property REIT Inc. (BPR): 7.1% 61. Mercury General Corp. (MCY): 5.2%
4. PetroChina Co. Ltd (PTR): 7.7% 62. Prospect Capital Corp. (PSEC): 11%
5. Macerich Co. (MAC): 11.4% 63. Shaw Communications Inc. (SJR): 4.4%
6. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (FCAU): 5% 64. Ventas Inc. (VTR): 5.5%
7. Oxford Lane Capital Corp. (OXLC): 20.1% 65. Apple Hospitality REIT Inc. (APLE): 7.4%
8. Comerica Inc. (CMA): 3.7% 66. Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP): 9.1%
9. Holly Energy Partners LP (HEP): 12% 67. Baker Hughes Co. (BKR): 2.8%
10. Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH): 11% 68. Stellus Capital Investment Corp. (SCM): 9.5%
11. EPR Properties (EPR): 6.4% 69. Apache Corp. (APA): 3.9%
12. Nielsen Hldgs. plc (NLSN): 7% 70. Cedar Fair LP (FUN): 6.6%
13. HSBC Hldgs. plc (HSBC): 6.5% 71. Landmark Infra. Partners LP (LMRK): 9%
14. B&G Foods Inc. (BGS): 10.8% 72. Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT): 6.7%
15. Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY): 7.7% 73. Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET): 12.9%
74. Annaly Capital Mgmt. Inc. (NLY): 11.7%
70
75. Pembina Pipeline Corp. (PBA): 4.8% 97. Easterly Government Properties Inc. (DEA): 4.4%
76. Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. (AQN): 3.8% 98. Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF): 4.7%
77. Pattern Energy Grp. Inc. (PEGI): 6.3% 99. SFL Corp. Ltd (SFL): 9.6%
78. BCE Inc. (BCE): 5.1% 100. Granite Real Estate Investment Trust (GRP-UN): 4.3%
79. CorEnergy Infra. Trust Inc. (CORR): 6.9% 101. Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY): 3.8%
80. Spark Energy Inc. (SPKE): 7.9% 102. Whitestone REIT (WSR): 8.4%
81. Patterson Cos. Inc. (PDCO): 5.2% 103. Hercules Capital Inc. (HTGC): 9%
82. Eagle Point Credit Co. Inc. (ECC): 16.4% 104. Welltower Inc. (WELL): 4.3%
83. Gladstone Investment Corp. (GAIN): 6.1% 105. Gladstone Commercial Corp. (GOOD): 7%
84. Starwood Property Trust Inc. (STWD): 7.7% 106. Sabine Royalty Trust (SBR): 8.5%
85. Alaris Royalty Corp. (ALARF): 7.3% 107. ASML Holding NV (ASML): 1%
86. Weyerhaeuser Co. (WY): 4.5% 108. Apollo Global Mgmt. Inc. (APO): 4.2%
87. Gladstone Capital Corp. (GLAD): 8.5% 109. The Blackstone Grp. Inc. (BX): 3.7%
88. Olin Corp. (OLN): 4.7% 110. Gladstone Land Corp. (LAND): 4.1%
89. MGM Growth Properties LLC (MGP): 6% 111. Arbor Realty Trust Inc. (ABR): 7.7%
90. New York Community Bancorp Inc. (NYCB): 5.8% 112. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd (TSM): 3.3%
91. Tenaris SA (TS): 3.6% 113. AstraZeneca plc (AZN): 2.7%
92. Dream Industrial REIT (DREUF): 5.2% 114. Western Digital Corp. (WDC): 3.2%
93. Physicians Realty Trust (DOC): 4.9% 115. Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI): 2.1%
94. Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS): 4.4% 116. GameStop Corp. (GME): 6.2%
95. Cross Timbers Royalty Trust (CRT): 12.1%
96. Vector Grp. Ltd (VGR): 11.5%
71
List of Stocks by Sector

Each of the securities in the Sure Analysis Research Database are grouped according to sector and
Dividend Risk Score and sorted (from highest to lowest) by Expected Total Returns. Dividend or
distribution yield is included next to each security’s ticker symbol. The Dividend Risk Score uses
payout ratio, dividend history, and recession resiliency to measure a company’s dividend safety.
You can learn more about how the score is calculated in the Sure Analysis Glossary. These
rankings will not always align with our Top 10 due to additional safety constraints we impose
outside of the Top 10. See our ‘Buying and Ranking Criteria’ for more information.
Commercial Services D-Ranked Dividend Risk

1. Telefónica SA (TEF): 6.3%
A-Ranked Dividend Risk 2. Deutsche Telekom AG (DTEGY): 4.8%
1. ABM Industries Inc. (ABM): 1.9%
3. Rogers Communications Inc. (RCI): 3%
2. S&P Global Inc. (SPGI): 0.8%
4. Vodafone Grp. plc (VOD): 4.9%
B-Ranked Dividend Risk F-Ranked Dividend Risk

1. R.R. Donnelley & Sons Co. (RRD): 3.2%
1. CenturyLink Inc. (CTL): 9.8%
2. Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corp. (BAH): 1.2%
2. BCE Inc. (BCE): 5.1%
3. Morningstar Inc. (MORN): 0.7%
4. CAE Inc. (CAE): 1.2%
5. Moody's Corp. (MCO): 0.8% Consumer Durables
A-Ranked Dividend Risk
C-Ranked Dividend Risk 1. NACCO Industries Inc. (NC): 1.5%
1. Omnicom Grp. Inc. (OMC): 3.2% 2. Stanley Black & Decker Inc. (SWK): 1.6%
3. MSA Safety Inc. (MSA): 1.3%
D-Ranked Dividend Risk 4. Sony Corp. (SNE): 0.5%%
1. WPP plc (WPP): 5.4%
2. Johnson Controls Intl. plc (JCI): 2.6% B-Ranked Dividend Risk
1. Whirlpool Corp. (WHR): 3.2%
F-Ranked Dividend Risk 2. Snap-On Inc. (SNA): 2.3%
1. Nielsen Hldgs. plc (NLSN): 7% 3. Polaris Inc. (PII): 2.4%
2. Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI): 2.1% 4. Toyota Motor Corp. (TM): 2.9%
5. Honda Motor Co. Ltd (HMC): 2.7%
6. Leggett & Platt Inc. (LEG): 3.1%
Communications 7. Ferrari NV (RACE): 0.6%
1. Telephone & Data Systems Inc. (TDS): 2.6% C-Ranked Dividend Risk
2. SK Telecom Co. Ltd (SKM): 0.4% 1. Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG): 4%
2. General Motors Co. (GM): 4.2%
B-Ranked Dividend Risk
1. AT&T Inc. (T): 5.2% D-Ranked Dividend Risk
1. Ford Motor Co. (F): 6.5%
C-Ranked Dividend Risk 2. Daimler AG (DDAIF): 6%
1. China Mobile Ltd (CHL): 4% 3. Hasbro Inc. (HAS): 2.5%
2. Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ): 4%
3. América Móvil SAB de CV (AMX): 2.3%
72
F-Ranked Dividend Risk F-Ranked Dividend Risk

1. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (FCAU): 5% 1. B&G Foods Inc. (BGS): 10.8%
2. Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMWYY): 4.8% 2. Philip Morris Intl. Inc. (PM): 5.4%
3. Vector Grp. Ltd (VGR): 11.5%
Consumer Non-Durables
A-Ranked Dividend Risk Consumer Services
1. Procter & Gamble Co. (PG): 2.4% A-Ranked Dividend Risk
2. McCormick & Co. Inc. (MKC): 1.3% 1. Cintas Corp. (CTAS): 0.8%
3. Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL): 2.5%
4. Tootsie Roll Industries Inc. (TR): 1% B-Ranked Dividend Risk
5. Hormel Foods Corp. (HRL): 1.9% 1. eBay Inc. (EBAY): 1.2%
6. Brown-Forman Corp. (BF.B): 1% 2. Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL): 2.2%
7. Lancaster Colony Corp. (LANC): 1.6% 3. Comcast Corp. (CMCSA): 1.8%
4. Domino's Pizza Inc. (DPZ): 0.9%
B-Ranked Dividend Risk 5. Fox Corp. (FOXA): 1.2%
1. Altria Grp. Inc. (MO): 6.5% 6. The Walt Disney Co. (DIS): 1.2%
2. Kimberly-Clark Corp. (KMB): 3% 7. McDonald's Corp. (MCD): 2.4%
3. Church & Dwight Co. Inc. (CHD): 1.3% 8. Marriott Intl. Inc. (MAR): 1.2%
4. PepsiCo Inc. (PEP): 2.8%
5. The Coca-Cola Co. (KO): 2.9% C-Ranked Dividend Risk
6. Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN): 1.7% 1. Carnival Corp. (CCL): 3.9%
7. The Clorox Co. (CLX): 2.6% 2. Pearson plc (PSO): 2.9%
8. NIKE Inc. (NKE): 0.9% 3. Jack in the Box Inc. (JACK): 2.1%
9. VF Corp. (VFC): 2% 4. H&R Block Inc. (HRB): 4.4%
5. Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc. (CBRL): 3.3%
C-Ranked Dividend Risk 6. Starbucks Corp. (SBUX): 1.6%
1. Molson Coors Brewing Co. (TAP): 3.3% 7. Dunkin' Brands Grp. Inc. (DNKN): 2%
2. Hanesbrands Inc. (HBI): 4.1% 8. Yum! Brands Inc. (YUM): 1.6%
3. The J. M. Smucker Co. (SJM): 3.4% 9. John Wiley & Sons Inc. (JW.A): 2.8%
4. Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (BUD): 2.4%
5. Mondelez Intl. Inc. (MDLZ): 1.9% D-Ranked Dividend Risk
6. Kontoor Brands Inc. (KTB): 2.7% 1. Darden Restaurants Inc. (DRI): 3%
7. Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ): 1.6% 2. Meredith Corp. (MDP): 7.1%
8. International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. (IFF): 2.3% 3. Restaurant Brands Intl. Inc. (QSR): 3.1%
9. Kellogg Co. (K): 3.3% 4. The Wendy's Co. (WEN): 1.7%
10. Diageo plc (DEO): 2% 5. MGM Resorts Intl. (MGM): 1.5%
11. Conagra Brands Inc. (CAG): 2.5% 6. Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN): 2.5%
12. Universal Corp. (UVV): 5.3% 7. Scholastic Corp. (SCHL): 1.6%
13. The Hershey Co. (HSY): 2%
14. Nestlé SA (NSRGY): 2.2%
F-Ranked Dividend Risk
1. Six Flags Entertainment Corp. (SIX): 7.2%
D-Ranked Dividend Risk 2. Dine Brands Global Inc. (DIN): 3.2%
1. Imperial Brands plc (IMBBY): 10.1% 3. Shaw Communications Inc. (SJR): 4.4%
2. British American Tobacco plc (BTI): 6% 4. Cedar Fair LP (FUN): 6.6%
3. General Mills Inc. (GIS): 3.7% 5. Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS): 4.4%
4. The Kraft Heinz Co. (KHC): 5.8%
5. Unilever plc (UL): 3.1%
6. Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP): 2.1% Distribution Services
7. Flowers Foods Inc. (FLO): 3.4% A-Ranked Dividend Risk
8. Ambev SA (ABEV): 2.5% 1. McKesson Corp. (MCK): 1.2%
9. Campbell Soup Co. (CPB): 2.8% 2. AmerisourceBergen Corp. (ABC): 1.9%
3. Weyco Grp. Inc. (WEYS): 3.6%
4. W.W. Grainger Inc. (GWW): 1.7%
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5. Genuine Parts Co. (GPC): 2.8% 3. The Boeing Co. (BA): 2.4%
6. Sysco Corp. (SYY): 1.8% 4. Seagate Technology plc (STX): 4.3%
5. Canon Inc. (CAJ): 2.8%
B-Ranked Dividend Risk 6. Garmin Ltd (GRMN): 2.2%
1. Cardinal Health Inc. (CAH): 3.8% 7. Kulicke & Soffa Industries Inc. (KLIC): 1.8%
2. Owens & Minor Inc. (OMI): 1.6%
1. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM): 3.3%
2. Western Digital Corp. (WDC): 3.2%
C-Ranked Dividend Risk
1. Sunoco LP (SUN): 10.8%
2. MSC Industrial Direct Co. Inc. (MSM): 3.3% Energy Minerals
3. Superior Plus Corp. (SUUIF): 5.6% A-Ranked Dividend Risk
4. Fastenal Co. (FAST): 2.3% 1. National Fuel Gas Co. (NFG): 3.7%
2. Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO): 2.3%%
D-Ranked Dividend Risk
1. N/A B-Ranked Dividend Risk
1. HollyFrontier Corp. (HFC): 2.6%
F-Ranked Dividend Risk 2. Petróleo Brasileiro SA (PBR): 1.4%
1. Patterson Cos. Inc. (PDCO): 5.2%
C-Ranked Dividend Risk
Electronic Technology 1. Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC): 3.4%
A-Ranked Dividend Risk 2. CNOOC Ltd (CEO): 5.1%
1. Textron Inc. (TXT): 0.2% 3. Chevron Corp. (CVX): 3.9%
2. Xerox Hldgs. Corp. (XRX): 1.4% 4. Phillips 66 (PSX): 3.1%
3. Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC): 1.4% 5. Gazprom PJSC (OGZPY): 6.2%
4. General Dynamics Corp. (GD): 2.3% 6. ConocoPhillips (COP): 1.9%
5. L3Harris Technologies Inc. (LHX): 1.4%
6. NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA): 0.3% D-Ranked Dividend Risk
7. General Electric Co. (GE): 0.4% 1. Total SA (TOT): 3.9%
2. China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (SNP): 6%
B-Ranked Dividend Risk 3. Eni SpA (E): 4.3%
1. HP Inc. (HPQ): 3.1% 4. Suncor Energy Inc. (SU): 3.7%
2. Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT): 2.2% 5. Canadian Natural Resources Ltd (CNQ): 3.4%
3. Intel Corp. (INTC): 2.1% 6. Valero Energy Corp. (VLO): 3.8%
4. Lam Research Corp. (LRCX): 1.5%
5. KLA Corp. (KLAC): 1.7% F-Ranked Dividend Risk
6. Raytheon Co. (RTN): 1.7% 1. PetroChina Co. Ltd (PTR): 7.7%
7. Skyworks Solutions Inc. (SWKS): 1.3% 2. Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY): 7.7%
8. Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. (HII): 1.4% 3. Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM): 4.9%
9. Apple Inc. (AAPL): 1% 4. Enerplus Corp. (ERF): 1.3%
5. PermRock Royalty Trust (PRT): 16.1%
6. BP plc (BP): 6.5%
7. Royal Dutch Shell plc (RDS.B): 6.3%
C-Ranked Dividend Risk 8. Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP): 9.1%
1. Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO): 2.9% 9. Apache Corp. (APA): 3.9%
2. Broadcom Inc. (AVGO): 3.4% 10. Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET): 12.9%
3. Marvell Technology Grp. Ltd (MRVL): 0.9% 11. Cross Timbers Royalty Trust (CRT): 12.1%
4. Corning Inc. (GLW): 2.7% 12. Sabine Royalty Trust (SBR): 8.5%
5. NetApp Inc. (NTAP): 2.9%
6. Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (ERIC): 1.2%
7. Logitech Intl. SA (LOGI): 1.5% Finance
8. QUALCOMM Inc. (QCOM): 2.8% A-Ranked Dividend Risk
1. Bank OZK (OZK): 3%
D-Ranked Dividend Risk 2. Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMCB): 1.8%
1. Nokia Oyj (NOK): 3% 3. Ameriprise Financial Inc. (AMP): 2.3%
2. Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN): 2.5% 4. The Goldman Sachs Grp. Inc. (GS): 1.6%
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5. Old Republic Intl. Corp. (ORI): 3.6% 4. BB&T Corp. (BBT): 3.1%
6. Ping An Ins. (Grp.) Co. (PNGAY): 0.7% 5. The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD): 3.9%
7. Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY): 2.2% 6. Invesco Ltd (IVZ): 6.8%
8. UMB Financial Corp. (UMBF): 1.7% 7. Sun Life Financial Inc. (SLF): 3.4%
9. Franklin Resources Inc. (BEN): 4% 8. Eagle Financial Srvcs. Inc. (EFSI): 3.2%
10. Chesapeake Financial Shares Inc. (CPKF): 2% 9. Bank of Montreal (BMO): 4%
11. Brookfield Asset Mgmt. Inc. (BAM): 1.1% 10. BNP Paribas SA (BNPQF): 5.1%
12. 1st Source Corp. (SRCE): 2% 11. Lazard Ltd (LAZ): 4.6%
13. Enterprise Bancorp Inc. (EBTC): 1.9% 12. KeyCorp (KEY): 3.4%
14. United Bankshares Inc. (UBSI): 3.5% 13. Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC): 3.4%
15. T. Rowe Price Grp. Inc. (TROW): 2.4% 14. Ryder System Inc. (R): 4.1%
16. BancFirst Corp. (Oklahoma) (BANF): 1.9% 15. Huntington Bancshares Inc. (HBAN): 3.8%
17. Visa Inc. (V): 0.5% 16. BlackRock Inc. (BLK): 2.6%
18. Community Trust Bancorp Inc. (CTBI): 3.1% 17. MetLife Inc. (MET): 3.4%
19. SEI Investments Co. (SEIC): 1% 18. Prosperity Bancshares Inc. (PB): 2.3%
20. Eaton Vance Corp. (EV): 3% 19. SunTrust Banks Inc. (STI): 2.9%
21. PSB Hldgs. Inc. (Wisconsin) (PSBQ): 1.4% 20. Calvin B. Taylor Bankshares Inc. (TYCB): 4.8%
22. Aflac Inc. (AFL): 2% 21. National Bank of Canada (NTIOF): 3.6%
23. Chubb Ltd (CB): 1.9% 22. Legg Mason Inc. (LM): 4.1%
24. First Financial Corp. (Indiana) (THFF): 2.3% 23. AXIS Capital Hldgs. Ltd (AXS): 2.7%
25. Mastercard Inc. (MA): 0.4% 24. Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG): 1.8%
26. Brown & Brown Inc. (BRO): 0.8% 25. Essex Property Trust Inc. (ESS): 2.6%
27. Commerce Bancshares Inc. (Missouri) (CBSH): 1.5% 26. National Retail Properties Inc. (NNN): 3.8%
28. Tompkins Financial Corp. (TMP): 2.2% 27. Erie Indemnity Co. (ERIE): 2.2%
29. Cincinnati Financial Corp. (CINF): 2.1% 28. American Tower Corp. (AMT): 1.6%
30. RLI Corp. (RLI): 1% 29. CME Grp. Inc. (CME): 1.5%
30. The Western Union Co. (WU): 2.9%
1. Synchrony Financial (SYF): 2.4% D-Ranked Dividend Risk
2. Principal Financial Grp. Inc. (PFG): 4% 1. Taubman Centers Inc. (TCO): 8.7%
3. Navient Corp. (NAVI): 4.7% 2. Simon Property Grp. Inc. (SPG): 5.6%
4. Prudential Financial Inc. (PRU): 4.2% 3. PacWest Bancorp (PACW): 6.3%
5. M&T Bank Corp. (MTB): 2.4% 4. Brookfield Property Partners LP (BPY): 7.2%
6. Royal Bank of Canada (RY): 3.9% 5. Discover Financial Srvcs. (DFS): 1.9%
7. Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT): 3.2% 6. Service Properties Trust (SVC): 8.9%
8. People's United Financial Inc. (PBCT): 4.2% 7. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM): 5.1%
9. The Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (BK): 2.3% 8. Brixmor Property Grp. Inc. (BRX): 5.2%
10. Fairfax Financial Hldgs. Ltd (FRFHF): 2.1% 9. Great-West Lifeco Inc. (GWLIF): 4.8%
11. Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE): 1.2% 10. Sampo Oyj (SAXPY): 6%
12. American Express Co. (AXP): 1.3% 11. Dream Global REIT (DUNDF): 4.2%
13. U.S. Bancorp (USB): 2.6% 12. Healthcare Trust of America Inc. (HTA): 4.1%
14. The Travelers Cos. Inc. (TRV): 2.3% 13. Summit Hotel Properties Inc. (INN): 5.8%
15. Bank of America Corp. (BAC): 1.8% 14. Medical Properties Trust Inc. (MPW): 4.9%
16. Assurant Inc. (AIZ): 1.8% 15. STAG Industrial Inc. (STAG): 4.6%
17. Aon plc (AON): 0.8% 16. Public Storage (PSA): 3.8%
18. Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc. (CFR): 2.8% 17. Digital Realty Trust Inc. (DLR): 3.6%
19. The Allstate Corp. (ALL): 1.8% 18. Boston Properties Inc. (BXP): 2.8%
20. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM): 2.4% 19. Waddell & Reed Financial Inc. (WDR): 6%
21. Everest Re Grp. Ltd (RE): 2% 20. Lamar Advertising Co. (LAMR): 4.3%
22. Arrow Financial Corp. (AROW): 2.7% 21. Host Hotels & Resorts Inc. (HST): 4.3%
23. Community Bank System Inc. (CBU): 2.2% 22. Société Générale SA (SCGLY): 7.1%
24. McGrath RentCorp (MGRC): 1.9% 23. STORE Capital Corp. (STOR): 3.6%
25. Westamerica Bancorporation (WABC): 2.4% 24. Choice Properties REIT (PPRQF): 5.3%
25. OUTFRONT Media Inc. (OUT): 5.4%
26. Office Properties Income Trust (OPI): 10.6%
C-Ranked Dividend Risk 27. Kimco Realty Corp. (KIM): 5.4%
1. Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc. (SKT): 9.6% 28. W.P. Carey Inc. (WPC): 5.2%
2. Banco Santander SA (SAN): 4.6% 29. Realty Income Corp. (O): 3.7%
3. The Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS): 4.7%
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30. Urstadt Biddle Properties Inc. (UBA): 4.5% 49. Dream Industrial Real Estate Investment Trust
31. Compass Diversified Hldgs. (CODI): 5.8% (DREUF): 5.2%
32. AvalonBay Communities Inc. (AVB): 2.9% 50. Physicians Realty Trust (DOC): 4.9%
33. Equity Residential (EQR): 2.8% 51. Easterly Government Properties Inc. (DEA): 4.4%
34. Dream Office Real Estate Trust (DRETF): 3.1% 52. Whitestone REIT (WSR): 8.4%
35. Universal Health Realty Income Trust (UHT): 2.3% 53. Hercules Capital Inc. (HTGC): 9%
54. Welltower Inc. (WELL): 4.3%
55. Gladstone Commercial Corp. (GOOD): 7%
56. Apollo Global Mgmt. Inc. (APO): 4.2%
F-Ranked Dividend Risk 57. The Blackstone Grp. Inc. (BX): 3.7%
1. Brookfield Property REIT Inc. (BPR): 7.1% 58. Gladstone Land Corp. (LAND): 4.1%
2. Macerich Co. (MAC): 11.4% 59. Arbor Realty Trust Inc. (ABR): 7.7%
3. Comerica Inc. (CMA): 3.7%
4. EPR Properties (EPR): 6.4%
5. HSBC Hldgs. plc (HSBC): 6.5% Health Services
6. Citigroup Inc. (C): 2.3% A-Ranked Dividend Risk
7. CoreSite Realty Corp. (COR): 4.2% 1. N/A
8. AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC): 11.6%
9. Artisan Partners Asset Mgmt. (APAM): 7.2%
10. AllianceBernstein Holding LP (AB): 7.9%
1. Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. (FMS): 1.8%
11. AEGON NV (AEG): 6.2%
2. UnitedHealth Grp. Inc. (UNH): 1.3%
12. Dynex Capital Inc. (DX): 12.4%
13. Capitala Finance Corp. (CPTA): 11.7%
14. Sabra Health Care REIT Inc. (SBRA): 8.5% C-Ranked Dividend Risk
15. ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR): 12.5% 1. N/A
16. VEREIT Inc. (VER): 6%
17. Macquarie Infra. Corp. (MIC): 9.3% D-Ranked Dividend Risk
18. New Residential Investment Corp. (NRZ): 12.5%
1. N/A
19. Chimera Investment Corp. (CIM): 9.7%
20. Main Street Capital Corp. (MAIN): 5.6%
21. Crown Castle Intl. Corp. (CCI): 3.2% F-Ranked Dividend Risk
22. Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI): 10.1% 1. N/A
23. Senior Housing Properties Trust (SNH): 13.3%
24. Ladder Capital Corp. (LADR): 7.5%
25. Swiss Re AG (SSREY): 4.9%
Health Technology
26. Iron Mountain Inc. (IRM): 7.7% A-Ranked Dividend Risk
27. Omega Healthcare Investors Inc. (OHI): 6.3% 1. Perrigo Co. plc (PRGO): 1.6%
28. Ares Capital Corp. (ARCC): 8.6% 2. Stryker Corp. (SYK): 1%
29. Gaming & Leisure Properties Inc. (GLPI): 6.3% 3. Becton, Dickinson & Co. (BDX): 1.1%
30. LTC Properties Inc. (LTC): 5.1% 4. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): 2.5%
31. Chatham Lodging Trust (CLDT): 7.2% 5. Medtronic plc (MDT): 1.8%
32. Global Net Lease Inc. (GNL): 8.8% 6. West Pharmaceutical Srvcs. Inc. (WST): 0.4%
33. Mercury General Corp. (MCY): 5.2%
34. Prospect Capital Corp. (PSEC): 11% B-Ranked Dividend Risk
35. Ventas Inc. (VTR): 5.5% 1. Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY): 2.6%
36. Apple Hospitality REIT Inc. (APLE): 7.4% 2. Novartis AG (NVS): 1.9%
37. Stellus Capital Investment Corp. (SCM): 9.5%
38. Landmark Infra. Partners LP (LMRK): 9%
39. Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT): 6.7% C-Ranked Dividend Risk
40. Annaly Capital Mgmt. Inc. (NLY): 11.7% 1. AbbVie Inc. (ABBV): 4.8%
41. CorEnergy Infra. Trust Inc. (CORR): 6.9% 2. Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD): 3.8%
42. Gladstone Investment Corp. (GAIN): 6.1% 3. Bayer AG (BAYRY): 3.9%
43. Starwood Property Trust Inc. (STWD): 7.7% 4. Amgen Inc. (AMGN): 2.4%
44. Alaris Royalty Corp. (ALARF): 7.3% 5. Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO): 1.5%
45. Weyerhaeuser Co. (WY): 4.5% 6. Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK): 2.4%
46. Gladstone Capital Corp. (GLAD): 8.5% 7. Abbott Laboratories (ABT): 1.5%
47. MGM Growth Properties LLC (MGP): 6% 8. ResMed Inc. (RMD): 1%
48. New York Community Bancorp Inc. (NYCB): 5.8% 9. Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY): 1.9%
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D-Ranked Dividend Risk C-Ranked Dividend Risk

1. Pfizer Inc. (PFE): 3.7% 1. N/A
2. Sanofi (SNY): 3.4%
3. GlaxoSmithKline plc (GSK): 4.2% D-Ranked Dividend Risk
1. N/A
1. AstraZeneca plc (AZN): 2.7% F-Ranked Dividend Risk
1. Oxford Lane Capital Corp. (OXLC): 20.1%
Industrial Services 2. Eagle Point Credit Co. Inc. (ECC): 16.4%
1. N/A Non-Energy Minerals
B-Ranked Dividend Risk 1. Nucor Corp. (NUE): 2.9%
1. Fluor Corp. (FLR): 4.5% 2. Yamana Gold Inc. (AUY): 0.6%
C-Ranked Dividend Risk B-Ranked Dividend Risk

1. Energy Transfer LP (ET): 9.6% 1. POSCO (PKX): 2.8%
2. Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD): 6.3% 2. Vale SA (VALE): 2.6%
3. TechnipFMC plc (FTI): 2.4%
4. Genesis Energy LP (GEL): 10.7%
5. Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI): 4.3% C-Ranked Dividend Risk
6. Enbridge Inc. (ENB): 5.5% 1. Newmont Goldcorp Corp. (NEM): 1.3%
7. Waste Mgmt. Inc. (WM): 1.8% 2. Barrick Gold Corp. (GOLD): 1.1%
D-Ranked Dividend Risk D-Ranked Dividend Risk

1. Antero Midstream Corp. (AM): 12.5% 1. BHP Grp. Ltd (BHP): 4.9%
2. Magellan Midstream Partners LP (MMP): 6.5% 2. Rio Tinto plc (RIO): 5.6%
3. MPLX LP (MPLX): 10.3% 3. Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM): 1.2%
4. Halliburton Co. (HAL): 2.9%
5. The Williams Cos. Inc. (WMB): 6.4% F-Ranked Dividend Risk
6. TC Energy Corp. (TRP): 4.2% 1. ArcelorMittal SA (MT): 1.1%
7. ONEOK Inc. (OKE): 4.6% 2. Tenaris SA (TS): 3.6%
8. TC Pipelines LP (TCP): 6.2%
Process Industries
F-Ranked Dividend Risk A-Ranked Dividend Risk
1. EQM Midstream Partners LP (EQM): 15.7% 1. Albemarle Corp. (ALB): 2%
2. Holly Energy Partners LP (HEP): 12% 2. Donaldson Co. Inc. (DCI): 1.4%
3. Schlumberger NV (SLB): 5% 3. Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. (ADM): 3%
4. Inter Pipeline Ltd (IPPLF): 7.5% 4. PPG Industries Inc. (PPG): 1.5%
5. USA Compression Partners LP (USAC): 11.7% 5. H.B. Fuller Co. (FUL): 1.2%
6. Helmerich & Payne Inc. (HP): 6.2% 6. AptarGroup. Inc. (ATR): 1.2%
7. Baker Hughes Co. (BKR): 2.8% 7. The Sherwin-Williams Co. (SHW): 0.7%
8. Pembina Pipeline Corp. (PBA): 4.8% 8. RPM Intl. Inc. (RPM): 1.8%
9. Ecolab Inc. (ECL): 1%
Miscellaneous 10. Stepan Co. (SCL): 1%
1. N/A B-Ranked Dividend Risk
1. Sonoco Products Co. (SON): 2.7%
2. Linde plc (LIN): 1.6%
B-Ranked Dividend Risk 3. Air Products & Chemicals Inc. (APD): 1.9%
1. N/A
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C-Ranked Dividend Risk D-Ranked Dividend Risk

1. WestRock Co. (WRK): 4.3% 1. Newell Brands Inc. (NWL): 4.8%
2. LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB): 4.4% 2. Siemens AG (SIEGY): 3.4%
3. Greif Inc. (GEF): 3.9% 3. ABB Ltd (ABB): 3.3%
4. International Paper Co. (IP): 4.4%
D-Ranked Dividend Risk 1. ASML Holding NV (ASML): 1%
1. Domtar Corp. (UFS): 4.6%
2. CF Industries Hldgs. Inc. (CF): 2.5%
3. Dow Inc. (DOW): 3.9% Retail Trade
F-Ranked Dividend Risk 1. Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (WBA): 3%
2. Lowe's Cos. Inc. (LOW): 1.7%
1. Nutrien Ltd (NTR): 3.7%
3. Ross Stores Inc. (ROST): 0.8%
2. DuPont de Nemours Inc. (DD): 4.8%
4. Target Corp. (TGT): 2%
3. Olin Corp. (OLN): 4.7%
5. Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP): 0.2%
6. Walmart Inc. (WMT): 1.8%
Producer Manufacturing 7. Dillard's Inc. (DDS): 0.6%
1. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT): 2.4% B-Ranked Dividend Risk
2. PACCAR Inc. (PCAR): 1.6% 1. Tractor Supply Co. (TSCO): 1.4%
3. Parker-Hannifin Corp. (PH): 1.6% 2. Foot Locker Inc. (FL): 3.8%
4. Pentair plc (PNR): 1.6% 3. CVS Health Corp. (CVS): 2.7%
5. Carlisle Cos. Inc. (CSL): 1% 4. Williams-Sonoma Inc. (WSM): 2.5%
6. 3M Co. (MMM): 3.2% 5. The TJX Cos. Inc. (TJX): 1.4%
7. Oshkosh Corp. (OSK): 1.1% 6. The Kroger Co. (KR): 2.1%
8. Emerson Electric Co. (EMR): 2.6% 7. Dollar General Corp. (DG): 0.8%
9. Dover Corp. (DOV): 1.7% 8. Best Buy Co. Inc. (BBY): 2.2%
10. Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW): 2.3% 9. Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST): 0.9%
11. Brady Corp. (BRC): 1.5%
12. Roper Technologies Inc. (ROP): 0.5%
13. Franklin Electric Co. Inc. (FELE): 1% C-Ranked Dividend Risk
14. Tennant Co. (TNC): 1.1% 1. The Home Depot Inc. (HD): 2.4%
15. The Gorman-Rupp Co. (GRC): 1.4% 2. Tiffany & Co. (TIF): 1.7%
16. Nordson Corp. (NDSN): 0.9%
17. Badger Meter Inc. (BMI): 0.9% D-Ranked Dividend Risk
1. L Brands Inc. (LB): 8.3%
B-Ranked Dividend Risk 2. Gap Inc. (GPS): 5.4%
1. Cummins Inc. (CMI): 2.6% 3. Tapestry Inc. (TPR): 5.1%
2. Magna Intl. Inc. (MGA): 2.6% 4. Macy's Inc. (M): 9%
3. The Toro Co. (TTC): 1.1% 5. Kohl's Corp. (KSS): 5.2%
4. A. O. Smith Corp. (AOS): 1.8% 6. Nordstrom Inc. (JWN): 3.6%
5. Xylem Inc. (XYL): 1.2%
6. Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT): 1.4% F-Ranked Dividend Risk
7. United Technologies Corp. (UTX): 2% 1. Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF): 4.7%
8. Ingersoll-Rand plc (IR): 1.6% 2. Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY): 3.8%
9. Aptiv plc (APTV): 0.9% 3. GameStop Corp. (GME): 6.2%
C-Ranked Dividend Risk Technology Services

1. HNI Corp. (HNI): 3.2% A-Ranked Dividend Risk
2. Eaton Corp. plc (ETN): 2.9%
1. Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP): 1.9%
3. Rockwell Automation Inc. (ROK): 1.9% 2. Computer Srvcs. Inc. (CSVI): 1.6%
4. Honeywell Intl. Inc. (HON): 1.9%
5. Deere & Co. (DE): 1.7%
6. Autoliv Inc. (ALV): 2.9% B-Ranked Dividend Risk
1. Oracle Corp. (ORCL): 1.7%
78
2. Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. (CTSH): 1.3% B-Ranked Dividend Risk

3. International Business Machines Corp. (IBM): 4.8% 1. Red Eléctrica Corp. SA (RDEIY): 4%
4. Microsoft Corp. (MSFT): 1.2% 2. Fortis Inc. (FTS): 3.3%
5. Accenture plc (ACN): 1.4% 3. NextEra Energy Partners LP (NEP): 3.6%
6. Jack Henry & Associates Inc. (JKHY): 1.1% 4. MDU Resources Grp. Inc. (MDU): 2.7%
5. Consolidated Edison Inc. (ED): 3.3%
C-Ranked Dividend Risk 6. Atmos Energy Corp. (ATO): 1.9%
1. SAP SE (SAP): 1.3% 7. Northwest Natural Holding Co. (NWN): 2.6%
8. MGE Energy Inc. (MGEE): 1.7%
D-Ranked Dividend Risk
1. Infosys Ltd (INFY): 3.1% C-Ranked Dividend Risk
2. Paychex Inc. (PAYX): 2.9% 1. Consolidated Water Co. Ltd (CWCO): 2.1%
2. Artesian Resources Corp. (ARTNA): 2.6%
3. Edison Intl. (EIX): 3.3%
F-Ranked Dividend Risk 4. NextEra Energy Inc. (NEE): 2%
1. Micro Focus Intl. plc (MFGP): 13.4% 5. Aqua America Inc. (WTR): 1.9%
6. Entergy Corp. (ETR): 3.1%
Transportation
A-Ranked Dividend Risk D-Ranked Dividend Risk
1. FedEx Corp. (FDX): 1.7% 1. CenterPoint Energy Inc. (CNP): 4.2%
2. Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV): 1.3% 2. Brookfield Infra. Partners LP (BIP): 4%
3. CSX Corp. (CSX): 1.3% 3. Dominion Energy Inc. (D): 4.4%
4. Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd (CP): 0.9% 4. Duke Energy Corp. (DUK): 4.1%
5. Canadian National Railway Co. (CNI): 1.7% 5. Brookfield Renewable Partners LP (BEP): 4.4%
6. American Electric Power Co. Inc. (AEP): 2.9%
7. Otter Tail Corp. (OTTR): 2.7%
B-Ranked Dividend Risk 8. Sempra Energy (SRE): 2.5%
1. Alaska Air Grp. Inc. (ALK): 2% 9. DTE Energy Co. (DTE): 2.9%
2. Hawaiian Hldgs. Inc. (HA): 1.6% 10. TransAlta Renewables Inc. (TRSWF): 5.9%
3. Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL): 2.5% 11. The Southern Co. (SO): 3.9%
4. Kansas City Southern (KSU): 0.9% 12. WEC Energy Grp. Inc. (WEC): 2.5%
5. Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC): 1.8% 13. PPL Corp. (PPL): 4.6%
6. Union Pacific Corp. (UNP): 2% 14. Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL): 2.5%
C-Ranked Dividend Risk F-Ranked Dividend Risk

1. United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS): 3.3% 1. Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH): 11%
2. Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. (AQN): 3.8%
D-Ranked Dividend Risk 3. Pattern Energy Grp. Inc. (PEGI): 6.3%
1. American Airlines Grp. Inc. (AAL): 1.4% 4. Spark Energy Inc. (SPKE): 7.9%

1. Chorus Aviation Inc. (CHRRF): 5.8%
2. SFL Corp. Ltd (SFL): 9.6%
Utilities
1. UGI Corp. (UGI): 2.6%
2. Black Hills Corp. (BKH): 2.6%
3. SJW Grp. (SJW): 1.6%
4. Middlesex Water Co. (MSEX): 1.5%
5. California Water Service Grp. (CWT): 1.5%
6. American States Water Co. (AWR): 1.3%

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Sure Dividend

LONG-TERM INVESTING IN HIGH-QUALITY DIVIDEND STOCKS

January 2020 Edition

Edited by Brad Beams

Published on January 5th, 2020

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Opening Thoughts - The 2010s: A Decade in Review - ............................................................ 3

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Balance Sheet Metrics

Profitability & Per Share Metrics

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Average Annual PE Ratio Current PE 10-Year Av erage

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Bank OZK (OZK)

Income Statement Metrics

Balance Sheet Metrics

Profitability & Per Share Metrics

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Bank OZK (OZK) Dividend Yield History

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Bank OZK (OZK) Fundamentals

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Bank OZK (OZK): Valuation Analysis

Average Annual PE Ratio Current PE 10-Year Av erage

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AT&T Inc. (T)

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Income Statement Metrics

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AT&T Inc. (T) Fundamentals

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AT&T Inc. (T): Valuation Analysis

14.5 14.2 13.8

Average Annual PE Ratio Current PE 10-Year Av erage

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M&T Bank Corp. (MTB)

Income Statement Metrics

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M&T Bank Corp. (MTB) Fundamentals

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M&T Bank Corp. (MTB): Valuation Analysis

Average Annual P/E Ratio Current P/E 10-Year Av erage

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Whirlpool Corp. (WHR)

Income Statement Metrics

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Whirlpool Corp. (WHR) Fundamentals

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Whirlpool Corp. (WHR): Valuation Analysis

Average Annual PE Ratio Current PE 10-Year Av erage

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Altria Grp. Inc. (MO)

Income Statement Metrics

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Altria Group (MO) Dividend Yield History