Classification: INTERNAL

Cars & Uv's Domestic Sales

Months 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
April 135698 182103 207824 227037
May 140823 190646 205724 221128
June 140243 181464 188778 206693
July 147642 201704 183339 203119
August 152100 203872 191914 181921
September 167524 215085 218166 226155
October 168043 229647 184611 244054
November 166653 200634 218643 224369
December 149097 190464 209236 204617
January 187605 231584 254172 242460
February 194548 232491 271801 226483
March 199109 242238 295403 256979
Total 1949085 2501932 2629611 2665015
Source: SIAM, CRISIL Research

Classification: INTERNAL
 Classification: INTERNAL

2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

208341 188162 217989 242060 277683 298504
202358 207953 217984 231640 251764 301238
196726 218829 217620 223454 199036 273748
187234 199562 222368 259720 299066 290931
190086 213938 221743 258737 294416 287198
216509 223584 232170 278428 310041 292660
239140 221163 268630 280677 279877 284223
201521 212437 236664 240983 275440 266000
185951 209086 230959 227823 239723 238753
223525 230619 231917 265389 285467 280091
217750 230282 234244 255470 275346 272243
238061 244395 256920 282698 300722 291861
2507202 2600010 2789208 3047079 3288581 3377450

Classification: INTERNAL
Classification: INTERNAL

2019-20 2020-21
247541 0
226975 33546
225732
200790
196524
223317
285027
263773
235786
262714
251516
140910
2760605

Classification: INTERNAL
 Classification: INTERNAL

Cars & Uv's Domestic Sales

Moving averages
Months 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
April 135698 182103 207824 227037 208341 188162 217989 242060
#N/A #N/A 175208 205655 214401 207847 204831 216070
May 140823 190646 205724 221128 202358 207953 217984 231640
#N/A #N/A 179064 205833 209737 210480 209432 219192
June 140243 181464 188778 206693 196726 218829 217620 223454
#N/A #N/A 170162 192312 197399 207416 211058 219968
July 147642 201704 183339 203119 187234 199562 222368 259720
#N/A #N/A 177562 196054 191231 196638 203055 227217
August 152100 203872 191914 181921 190086 213938 221743 258737
#N/A #N/A 182629 192569 187974 195315 208589 231473
September 167524 215085 218166 226155 216509 223584 232170 278428
#N/A #N/A 200258 219802 220277 222083 224088 244727
October 168043 229647 184611 244054 239140 221163 268630 280677
#N/A #N/A 194100 219437 222602 234786 242978 256823
November 166653 200634 218643 224369 201521 212437 236664 240983
#N/A #N/A 195310 214549 214844 212776 216874 230028
December 149097 190464 209236 204617 185951 209086 230959 227823
#N/A #N/A 182932 201439 199935 199885 208665 222623
January 187605 231584 254172 242460 223525 230619 231917 265389
#N/A #N/A 224454 242739 240052 232201 228687 242642
February 194548 232491 271801 226483 217750 230282 234244 255470
#N/A #N/A 232947 243592 238678 224838 227425 239999
March 199109 242238 295403 256979 238061 244395 256920 282698
#N/A #N/A 245583 264873 263481 246478 246459 261338
Total #N/A #N/A 4744237 4998994 4844330 4944274 5174889 5597840

Moving Average - oct Moving Average - nov

300000 300000
Value
Value

250000 250000
200000 200000
150000 Actual 150000
Forecas 100000
100000 t
50000 50000

0 0
1 2 3 4 Data
5 6 Point
7 8 9 10 11 12
1 2 3 4 Data
5 6 Point
7 8 9 10 11 12

Classification: INTERNAL
 Classification: INTERNAL

Moving Average - Dec Moving Average - Jan

300000 300000

Value
Value

250000 250000
200000 200000
150000 Actual 150000
100000 Forecas 100000
t
50000 50000
0 0
1 2 3 4 Data
5 6 Point
7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 Data
5 6 Point
7 8 9 10 11 12

Classification: INTERNAL
 Classification: INTERNAL

2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 Moving Average- april

277683 298504 247541 0 350000
300000

Value
245911 272749 274576 182015
250000
251764 301238 226975 33546
200000
233796 261547 259992 187253 Actual
150000
Forecas
199036 273748 225732 100000 t
213370 232079 232839 249740 50000
299066 290931 200790 0
1 2 3 4 Data
5 6 Point
7 8 9 10 11 12
260385 283239 263596 245860.5
294416 287198 196524
258299 280117 259379 241861
310041 292660 223317
Moving Average - may
273546 293710 275339 257988.5 350000
279877 284223 285027 300000
Value

276395 281592 283042 284625 250000

200000
275440 266000 263773 Actual
150000
251029 260808 268404 264886.5 Forecas
100000 t
239723 238753 235786 50000
232835 235433 238087 237269.5 0
1 2 3 4 Data
5 6 Point
7 8 9 10 11 12
285467 280091 262714
260924 276982 276091 271402.5
275346 272243 251516
255020 267686 266368 261879.5
300722 291861 140910 Moving Average - june
300000
280113 291760 244498 216385.5
Value

250000
6050090 6323393 5658319
200000
150000 Actual
100000 Forecas
g Average - nov t
50000
0
1 2 3 4 Data
5 6 Point
7 8 9 10 11 12

Actual
Forecas
t

ata6 Point
7 8 9 10 11 12

Classification: INTERNAL
 Classification: INTERNAL

g Average - Jan Moving Average - Feb M

350000

Value
300000

Value
250000 300000
250000
200000 200000
Actual 150000 Actual 150000
Forecas 100000 Forecas 100000
t t 50000
50000
0
0
1
ata6 Point
7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 Data
5 6 Point
7 8 9 10 11 12

Classification: INTERNAL
 Classification: INTERNAL

Moving Average - july

350000
300000

Value
250000
200000
Actual
150000
Forecas
100000 t
50000
0
1 2 3 4 Data
5 6 Point
7 8 9 10 11 12

Moving Average - august

350000
300000
Value

250000
200000
Actual
150000
Forecas
100000 t
50000
0
1 2 3 4 Data
5 6 Point
7 8 9 10 11 12

Moving Average - sept

350000
300000
Value

250000
200000
Actual
150000
Forecas
100000 t
50000
0
1 2 3 4 Data
5 6 Point
7 8 9 10 11 12

Classification: INTERNAL
 Classification: INTERNAL

Moving Average - Mar

350000

Value
300000
250000
200000
150000 Actual
100000 Forecas
50000 t
0
1 2 3 4 Data
5 6 Point
7 8 9 10 11 12

Classification: INTERNAL
 Classification: INTERNAL

Cars & Uv's Domestic Sales

Exponential smoothing
Months 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
April 135698 182103 207824 227037 208341 188162 217989 242060
#N/A 135698 140338.5 147087 155082 160408 163183 168664
May 140823 190646 205724 221128 202358 207953 217984 231640
#N/A 140823 145805.3 151797 158730 163093 167579 172620
June 140243 181464 188778 206693 196726 218829 217620 223454
#N/A 140243 144365.1 148806 154595 158808 164810 170091
July 147642 201704 183339 203119 187234 199562 222368 259720
#N/A 147642 153048.2 156077 160781 163427 167040 172573
August 152100 203872 191914 181921 190086 213938 221743 258737
#N/A 152100 157277.2 160741 162859 165582 170417 175550
September 167524 215085 218166 226155 216509 223584 232170 278428
#N/A 167524 172280.1 176869 181797 185268 189100 193407
October 168043 229647 184611 244054 239140 221163 268630 280677
#N/A 168043 174203.4 175244 182125 187827 191160 198907
November 166653 200634 218643 224369 201521 212437 236664 240983
#N/A 166653 170051.1 174910 179856 182023 185064 190224
December 149097 190464 209236 204617 185951 209086 230959 227823
#N/A 149097 153233.7 158834 163412 165666 170008 176103
January 187605 231584 254172 242460 223525 230619 231917 265389
#N/A 187605 192002.9 198220 202644 204732 207321 209780
February 194548 232491 271801 226483 217750 230282 234244 255470
#N/A 194548 198342.3 205688 207768 208766 210917 213250
March 199109 242238 295403 256979 238061 244395 256920 282698
#N/A 199109 203421.9 212620 217056 219156 221680 225204
Total #N/A 4251908 4430559 4519289 4416852 4545609 4775809 5088248

Exponential Smoothing - Oct Exponential Smoothing -

300000
Value

300000
Value

250000 250000
200000 200000
150000 Actual 150000
100000 Forecas 100000
50000 t 50000
0 0
1 2 3 4 Data
5 6 Point
7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 Data
5 6 Point
7 8 9 10 11 12

Exponential Smoothing - Dec Exponential Smoothing -

300000
Value

300000
Value

250000 250000
200000 200000
150000 Actual 150000
100000 Forecas 100000
50000 Classification: INTERNAL
t
50000
0 0
 Exponential Smoothing - Dec
Classification: INTERNAL
Exponential Smoothing -
300000

Value
300000

Value
250000 250000
200000 200000
150000 Actual 150000
100000 Forecas 100000
50000 t
50000
0 0
1 2 3 4 Data
5 6 Point
7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 Data
5 6 Point
7 8 9 10 11 12

Classification: INTERNAL
 Classification: INTERNAL

2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21

277683 298504 247541 0 Exponential Smoothing - april
176004 186171 197405 202418 350000

Value
251764 301238 226975 33546 300000
250000
178522 185846 197385 200344
200000
199036 273748 225732 Actual
150000
Forecas
175427 177788 187384 191219 100000 t
299066 290931 200790 50000
181288 193066 202852 202646 0
1 2 3 4 Data
5 6 Point
7 8 9 10 11 12
294416 287198 196524
183869 194923 204151 203388
310041 292660 223317
201909 212722 220716 220976 Exponential Smoothing - May
279877 284223 285027 350000
Value

207084 214363 221349 227717 300000

275440 266000 263773 250000
195300 203314 209583 215002 200000
Actual
150000
239723 238753 235786 Forecas
181275 187120 192283 196634 100000 t
50000
285467 280091 262714
0
215341 222354 228127 231586
1 2 3 4 Data
5 6 Point
7 8 9 10 11 12
275346 272243 251516
217472 223260 228158 230494
300722 291861 140910
230954 237930 243324 233082
5402072 5578377 5049999 Exponential Smoothing - June
300000
Value

250000
200000
al Smoothing - Nov 150000 Actual
100000 Forecas
t
50000
Actual 0
Forecas 1 2 3 4 Data
5 6 Point
7 8 9 10 11 12
t

5 6 Point
Data 7 8 9 10 11 12

Ex
tial Smoothing - Jan Exponential Smoothing - Feb 35000
Value

300000 30000
Value

250000 25000
20000
200000
15000
Actual 150000 Actual 10000
Forecas 100000 Forecas 5000
t Classification: INTERNAL t
50000
0
 Ex
tial Smoothing - Jan Exponential Smoothing - Feb 35000

Value
Classification: INTERNAL 30000
300000

Value
250000 25000
20000
200000
15000
Actual 150000 Actual 10000
Forecas 100000 Forecas 5000
t 50000 t
0
5 6 Point
7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 Data
5 6 Point
7 8 9 10 11 12
Data

Classification: INTERNAL
 Classification: INTERNAL

al Smoothing - april Exponential Smoothing - july

350000

Value
300000
250000
200000
Actual
150000
Actual Forecas
Forecas 100000 t
t 50000
0
1 2 3 4 Data
5 6 Point
7 8 9 10 11 12

ata6 Point
7 8 9 10 11 12

al Smoothing - May Exponential Smoothing - Aug

350000
Value

300000
250000
200000
150000 Actual
Actual Forecas
Forecas 100000 t
t 50000
0
1 2 3 4 Data
5 6 Point
7 8 9 10 11 12

ata6 Point
7 8 9 10 11 12

al Smoothing - June Exponential Smoothing - Sept

350000
Value

300000
250000
200000
150000 Actual
Actual 100000 Forecas
Forecas t
50000
t 0
1 2 3 4 Data
5 6 Point
7 8 9 10 11 12
5 6 Point
Data 7 8 9 10 11 12

Exponential Smoothing - Mar

350000
Value

300000
250000
200000
150000 Actual
100000 Forecas
t
50000
Classification: INTERNAL
0
1 2 3 4 Data
5 6 Point
7 8 9 10 11 12
 Exponential Smoothing - Mar
350000

Value
300000 Classification: INTERNAL
250000
200000
150000 Actual
100000 Forecas
t
50000
0
1 2 3 4 Data
5 6 Point
7 8 9 10 11 12

Classification: INTERNAL
Months 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-2010 -2011 -2012 -2013 -2014 -2015 -2016
April 135698 182103 207824 227037 208341 188162 217989

May 140823 190646 205724 221128 202358 207953 217984

June 140243 181464 188778 206693 196726 218829 217620

July 147642 201704 183339 203119 187234 199562 222368

August 152100 203872 191914 181921 190086 213938 221743

September 167524 215085 218166 226155 216509 223584 232170

October 168043 229647 184611 244054 239140 221163 268630

November 166653 200634 218643 224369 201521 212437 236664

December 149097 190464 209236 204617 185951 209086 230959

January 187605 231584 254172 242460 223525 230619 231917

February 194548 232491 271801 226483 217750 230282 234244

March 199109 242238 295403 256979 238061 244395 256920

Total 1949085 2501932 2629611 2665015 2507202 2600010 2789208

 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020
-2017 -2018 -2019 -2020 -2021
242060 277683 298504 247541 0 290672

231640 251764 301238 226975 33546 275179

223454 199036 273748 225732 254671

259720 299066 290931 200790 278761

258737 294416 287198 196524 274671

278428 310041 292660 223317 290427

280677 279877 284223 285027 309104

240983 275440 266000 263773 281692

227823 239723 238753 235786 255199

265389 285467 280091 262714 292175

255470 275346 272243 251516 278624

282698 300722 291861 140910 307591

3047079 3288581 3377450 2760605 3315037