Year Quarter Sales CMA4 CMA2 Production/CMA2 Year Q1 Q2

Q1 664 1997
Q2 1338 1060 1998 0.4074 0.9948
1997
Q3 1170 1000 1030 1.1359 1999 0.6910 1.3546
Q4 1069 940 970 1.1023 2000 0.7596
Q1 422 1132 1036 0.4074 Average 0.6193 1.1747
Q2 1098 1076 1104 0.9948 Adjusted 0.621295 1.178448
1998
Q3 1939 1171 1123 1.7264
Q4 843 1254 1212 0.6954
Q1 803 1071 1162 0.6910
Q2 1430 1041 1056 1.3546
1999
Q3 1206 1015 1028 1.1736
Q4 724 926 970 0.7462
Q1 698 912 919 0.7596
2000 Q2 1076
Q3 1149

Deseasonilized Production
1600

1400

1200

1000 f(x) = − 7.61707303785739 x + 1094.59747065939

800

600

400

200

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
 Q3 Q4 Total Year Quarter # Sales Seasonal Relatives
1.1359 1.1023 Q1 1 664 0.62129457814766
1.7264 0.6954 Q2 2 1338 1.17844848673476
1997
1.1736 0.7462 Q3 3 1170 1.34958267376551
Q4 4 1069 0.85067426135206
1.3453 0.8480 3.9873 Q1 5 422 0.62129457814766
1.349583 0.850674 4.0000 Q2 6 1098 1.17844848673476
1998
Q3 7 1939 1.34958267376551
Q4 8 843 0.85067426135206
Q1 9 803 0.62129457814766
Q2 10 1430 1.17844848673476
1999
Q3 11 1206 1.34958267376551
Q4 12 724 0.85067426135206
Q1 13 698 0.62129457814766
Q2 14 1076 1.17844848673476
2000
Q3 15 1149 1.34958267376551
Q4 16 827
Q1 17 600 This is the reseasonalized forecasts for 2000 Q
2001 Q2 18 1128 to 2001 Q3.
Q3 19 1282
Slope
Intercept
 Deseasonalized Production
1068.73618948947
1135.39116479102
866.9346626506
1256.65022273147
679.226915609272
931.733556756759
1436.74043664916
990.978613435576
1292.46259060248
1213.45991453749
893.609575347542
851.08958022225
1123.46063292718
913.064942686951
851.374296910718

he reseasonalized forecasts for 2000 Q4

Q3.

-7.6170730378574
1094.59747065939
 Moving Average
Year Forecast (2-Year) |Actual-Forecast| Forecast (4-Year) |Actual-Forecast|
1 1995
2 1996
3 1997 336 21
4 1998 324 3
5 1999 316 38 326 5
6 2000 318 20 321 43
7 2001 299.5 11.5 307.75 9.75
8 2002 288 14 303 8
9 2003 304.5 2.5 302 0
10 2004 306.5 28.5 297.25 4.75
11 2005 302 18 303.25 31.75
12 2006 318.5 33.5 312.5 7.5
13 2007 327.5 327.5 314.75 29.75
14 2008 302.5 310.5

Moving Average Forecast/Actual

350

340

330

320
Forecast (2-Year Moving Avg.)
310 Forecast (4-Year Moving Avg.)
Actual Production
300

290

280

270

260
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
 Actual Production
(Millions of litres) Forecast (α=0.2) |Actual-Forecast| Forecast (α=0.4) |Actual-Forecast|
341 341 0 341 0
331 341 10 341 10
317 339 22 337 20
315 334.6 19.6 329 14
321 330.68 9.68 323.4 2.4
278 328.744 50.744 322.44 44.44
298 318.5952 20.5952 304.664 6.664
311 314.47616 3.47616 301.9984 9.0016
302 313.780928 11.780928 305.59904 3.59904
302 311.4247424 9.4247424 304.159424 2.159424
335 309.53979392 25.46020608 303.2956544 31.7043456
320 314.631835136 5.368164864 315.97739264 4.02260736
285 315.7054681088 30.7054681088 317.586435584 32.586435584
309.564374487 304.5518613504

ctual Exponential Smoothing (α=0.2, α=0.4 and Actual)

350

340

330

320
Forecast (2-Year Moving Avg.) α
310
Forecast (4-Year Moving Avg.) α
Actual Production 300 A

290

280

270

260

250
14 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
 Linear Forecast|Actual-Forecast|
323.967032967 17.032967033
321.972527473 9.02747252747
319.978021978 2.97802197802 Slope -1.994505
317.983516484 2.98351648352 Intercept 325.9615
315.989010989 5.01098901099
313.994505495 35.9945054945
312 14
310.005494505 0.99450549451 I would pick the linear trendforecast because if you
look at each individual point, each one is very close
308.010989011 6.01098901099 to the actual production value.
306.016483516 4.01648351648
304.021978022 30.978021978
302.027472527 17.9725274725
300.032967033 15.032967033
298.038461538

0.2, α=0.4 and Actual) Linear Trend

350
340
330
320 f(x) = − 1.9945054945055 x + 325.961538461539

α=0.2 310
α=0.4 300
Actual Production
290
280
270
260
250
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

10 11 12 13 14
 Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
MA Forecast (2-Year) 47.0454545454546
MA Forecast (4-Year) 15.5
Forecast (α=0.2) 16.8334514963692
Forecast (α=0.4) 13.8905732726154
Linear Forecast 12.4640743871513
A lower value for MAD or MSE implies a more accurate
forecasting technique. In this case it will be a linear trend
model.

inear Trend

.961538461539

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
 No. 3-Month
Month
Produced Moving Average
1 4959
2 8463
3 11706
4 9907 8376
5 9354 10025
6 11297 10322 25000
7 8905 10186
8 12249 9852
9 19160 10817 20000
10 14264 13438
11 13687 15224
12 8657 15704 15000
13 6733 12203
14 1006 9692
15 9328 5465 10000
16 9072 5689
17 8738 6469
18 12259 9046 5000
19 9519 10023
20 12113 10172
21 14044 11297 0
22 16650 11892 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
23 16912 14269
24 13851 15869
25 15804
 Actual Production
3-month Moving Average

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24