Use Holt's Winter's to forcast for 5 more quarters & use solver to find the best alpha, beta

& gamma (by minimizin

alpha 0.5607558 https://www.youtube.com/watc

beta 0.055788
gamma 0.5306923
RMSE 5.7792968

Date Sales (y1) level Trend Seasonal Forcast Error

2002-Q1 155 0.536796537
2002-Q2 180 0.623376623
2002-Q3 260 0.9004329
2002-Q4 560 1.939393939
2003-Q1 160 298.0645 9.314516 0.536796537
2003-Q2 185 301.4304 8.982655 0.618262703 191.613 -6.612903
2003-Q3 270 304.493 8.652387 0.893155502 279.506 -9.506149
2003-Q4 600 311.0311 8.534436 1.933913723 607.312 -7.312278
2004-Q1 165 312.7319 8.153199 0.531920507 171.542 -6.541686
2004-Q2 190 313.2743 7.72861 0.612018852 198.391 -8.391286
2004-Q3 280 316.7929 7.493744 0.888221422 286.706 -6.705527
2004-Q4 635 326.565 7.620849 1.939522453 627.142 7.857518
2005-Q1 172 328.1133 7.282071 0.527828159 177.76 -5.760332
2005-Q2 226 354.3906 8.341775 0.625655317 205.268 20.73171
2005-Q3 329 367.0338 8.581743 0.892548589 322.187 6.813353
2005-Q4 721 373.4429 8.460534 1.934831731 728.515 -7.514758
2006-Q1 211 391.9117 9.018878 0.533431419 201.579 9.420634
2006-Q2 247 397.485 8.826656 0.623400808 250.844 -3.844359
2006-Q3 356 402.1319 8.593475 0.888692102 362.653 -6.652908
2006-Q4 778 405.8898 8.323711 1.925249799 794.684 -16.68447
2007-Q1 221 414.2614 8.326378 0.533457006 220.955 0.045474
2007-Q2 264 423.0901 8.354402 0.623708495 263.442 0.558462
2007-Q3 383 431.1786 8.339572 0.888464336 383.421 -0.421306
2007-Q4 840 437.7175 8.239115 1.921957426 846.182 -6.182358
2008-Q1 235 442.9096 8.069127 0.531931424 237.899 -2.898691
2008-Q2 280 449.8286 8.004963 0.623045572 281.279 -1.279268
2008-Q3 408 458.6106 8.048315 0.889090142 406.769 1.231219 Error
2008-Q4 895 466.105 8.017411 1.9210079 896.899 -1.898636 25
2009-Q1 255 477.0735 8.182046 0.533299238 252.201 2.799391 20
15
2009-Q2 303 485.8529 8.21537 0.623363995 302.336 0.663684 10
2009-Q3 439 493.8972 8.205827 0.888962143 439.271 -0.271204 5
0
2009-Q4 952 498.4414 8.001552 1.915141574 964.544 -12.54387 -5 0 10 20 30 40
-10
2010-Q1 271 507.4044 8.055189 0.533719305 270.086 0.914372 -15
2010-Q2 321 515.1727 8.039183 0.623219685 321.319 -0.318934 -20
2010-Q3 464 522.5082 7.999927 0.88846448 465.116 -1.115525
2010-Q4 1012 529.3374 7.934618 1.913380927 1016 -3.998123 Forecasted & Actu
2011-Q1 289 539.6334 8.066355 0.534690161 286.752 2.247527 2000
1500
1000
500
0
 Forecasted & Actu
2000
2011-Q2 335 541.9977 7.748245 0.620494127 341.337 -6.337297 1500
2011-Q3 491 551.3682 7.838746 0.889551123 488.43 2.570276 1000
2011-Q4 1075 560.6793 7.920891 1.91546974 1069.98 5.024181 500
2012-Q1 302 566.4766 7.802416 0.5338569 304.025 -2.024949 0
2012-Q2 360 577.5896 7.987106 0.621972546 356.337 3.663263 0 10 20 30 40

2012-Q3 517 583.1179 7.849939 0.88799193 520.9 -3.900386 Sales (y1)

2012-Q4 1131 590.6807 7.833916 1.915082564 1131.98 -0.981097
2013-Q1 321 600.068 7.920575 0.534431381 319.521 1.478861
2013-Q2 380 609.6545 8.013516 0.622679069 378.152 1.847825
2013-Q3 545 615.4678 7.890769 0.886672316 548.484 -3.484202
2013-Q4 1192 622.8364 7.861642 1.914415228 1193.78 -1.783075
2014-Q1 339 632.7286 7.974918 0.535144311 337.065 1.935153
2014-Q2 397 638.945 7.876817 0.621966695 398.953 -1.952642
2014-Q3 573 646.4936 7.858506 0.886485178 573.519 -0.519012
2014-Q4 1249 653.2678 7.798017 1.913094389 1252.7 -3.701626
2015-Q1 353 660.2636 7.75326 0.534874005 353.766 -0.765637
2015-Q2 412 664.8755 7.578012 0.620745133 415.484 -3.48423
2015-Q3 600 674.9078 7.714931 0.887825245 596.12 3.879914
2015-Q4 1309 683.525 7.765268 1.914144174 1305.92 3.078265
2016-Q1 365 686.3071 7.487264 0.533259583 369.753 -4.753208
2016-Q2 435 697.7064 7.705509 0.622191964 430.669 4.330534
2016-Q3 630 707.7599 7.836499 0.889049625 626.282 3.71752
2016-Q4 1368 715.0824 7.807822 1.913572186 1369.75 -1.754665
2017-Q1 386 723.4285 7.837852 0.533424523 385.488 0.511885
2017-Q2 448 724.9683 7.486498 0.619945062 454.988 -6.988021
2017-Q3 657 736.1202 7.690985 0.890889873 651.189 5.811339
2017-Q4 1422 743.4196 7.669137 1.913153142 1423.34 -1.336426 k
2018-Q1 400.649 1
2018-Q2 470.388 2
2018-Q3 682.802 3
2018-Q4 1480.96 4
2019-Q1 417.013 5

k=# timesteps ahead to forecast

 gamma (by minimizin

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQ9szvszg9E

Error

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 120 0000 g mmmmmm

Forecasted & Actual Sales

 Forecasted & Actual Sales

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Sales (y1) Forcast

 Use Holt's Winter's to forcast for 5 more quarters & use solver to find the best alpha, beta & gamma (by minimizin

alpha 0.2
beta 0.05
gamma 0.1
RMSE 153.20421

Date Sales (y1) level Trend Seasonal Forcast Error

1 2002-Q1 362 0.95
2 2002-Q2 385 1.01
3 2002-Q3 432 1.14
4 2002-Q4 341 0.90
5 2003-Q1 382 400.9945 20.99448 0.95
6 2003-Q2 409 418.3288 20.81147 1.01 427.541 -18.54144
7 2003-Q3 498 438.9233 20.80062 1.14 499.233 -1.233173
8 2003-Q4 387 454.0314 20.51599 0.89 412.542 -25.54177
9 2004-Q1 473 478.9418 20.73571 0.96 452.069 20.9312
10 2004-Q2 513 501.3652 20.8201 1.01 504.48 8.519589
11 2004-Q3 582 520.1573 20.7187 1.13 593.525 -11.52482
12 2004-Q4 474 538.8755 20.61868 0.89 482.931 -8.930902
13 2005-Q1 544 561.3877 20.71335 0.96 534.948 9.052008
14 2005-Q2 582 580.8176 20.64918 1.01 588.488 -6.48757
15 2005-Q3 681 601.1898 20.63533 1.13 682.571 -1.571476
16 2005-Q4 557 622.4122 20.66468 0.89 554.383 2.616669
17 2006-Q1 628 645.6477 20.79322 0.96 615.693 12.3068
18 2006-Q2 707 673.1419 21.12827 1.01 673.157 33.84275
19 2006-Q3 773 691.6713 20.99833 1.13 787.744 -14.74375
20 2006-Q4 592 702.8893 20.50931 0.89 635.615 -43.61472
21 2007-Q1 627 709.4879 19.81377 0.95 693.698 -66.69774
22 2007-Q2 725 726.4252 19.66995 1.01 739.585 -14.5848
23 2007-Q3 854 747.6356 19.74698 1.13 845.274 8.726046
24 2007-Q4 661 762.9622 19.52596 0.88 680.603 -19.60269
2017-Q4 1422 924.9115 26.64712 1.01 744.476 677.5236
2018-Q1 963.447 1
2018-Q2 1109.15 2
2018-Q3 889.153 3
2018-Q4 1041.84 4
2019-Q1 1071.37 5

k=# timesteps ahead to forecast

Forecaste
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0
 Forecaste
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0
0 10 20 30

Sale

k
1
2
3
4
5
pha, beta & gamma (by minimizin

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQ9szvszg9E

Error
25
20
15
10
5
d to forecast 0 120 0000 g mmmmmm
-5 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
-10
-15
-20

Forecasted & Actual Sales

2000
1500
1000
500
0
 Forecasted & Actual Sales
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Sales (y1) Forcast