Res Cerdo

Demanda Demanda
Proporción
Mes mensual mensual Mes
por demanda
Nacional Granja
Jan-15 0.0577 54393.36 19037.68 Jan-15
Feb-15 0.1205 113586.14 39755.15 Feb-15
Mar-15 0.0374 35195.7 12318.5 Mar-15
Apr-15 0.0917 86389.46 30236.31 Apr-15
May-15 0.0475 44794.53 15678.09 May-15
Jun-15 0.0255 23997.07 8398.97 Jun-15
Jul-15 0.1426 134383.6 47034.26 Jul-15
Aug-15 0.0679 63992.19 22397.27 Aug-15
Sep-15 0.0594 55993.17 19597.61 Sep-15
Oct-15 0.1409 132783.79 46474.33 Oct-15
Nov-15 0.0781 73591.02 25756.86 Nov-15
Dec-15 0.1307 123184.97 43114.74 Dec-15
Jan-16 0.1257 114360.52 40026.18 Jan-16
Feb-16 0.1115 101474.82 35516.19 Feb-16
Mar-16 0.0248 22549.96 7892.49 Mar-16
Apr-16 0.0637 57985.61 20294.96 Apr-16
May-16 0.1735 157849.73 55247.4 May-16
Jun-16 0.0354 32214.23 11274.98 Jun-16
Jul-16 0.1611 146574.75 51301.16 Jul-16
Aug-16 0.0354 32214.23 11274.98 Aug-16
Sep-16 0.0637 57985.61 20294.96 Sep-16
Oct-16 0.0973 88589.13 31006.2 Oct-16
Nov-16 0.0513 46710.63 16348.72 Nov-16
Dec-16 0.0566 51542.77 18039.97 Dec-16
Jan-17 0.0447 40509.44 14178.3 Jan-17
Feb-17 0.0592 53577 18751.95 Feb-17
Mar-17 0.0216 19601.34 6860.47 Mar-17
Apr-17 0.0981 88859.42 31100.8 Apr-17
May-17 0.1443 130675.61 45736.46 May-17
Jun-17 0.1025 92779.69 32472.89 Jun-17
Jul-17 0.1342 121528.32 42534.91 Jul-17
Aug-17 0.1414 128062.1 44821.74 Aug-17
Sep-17 0.0505 45736.46 16007.76 Sep-17
Oct-17 0.0924 83632.39 29271.34 Oct-17
Nov-17 0.0433 39202.68 13720.94 Nov-17
Dec-17 0.0678 61417.54 22195.04 Dec-17
Jan-18 0.0305 28472.14 9965.25 Jan-18
Feb-18 0.0962 89971.95 31490.18 Feb-18
Mar-18 0.0560 52388.73 18336.06 Mar-18
Apr-18 0.1145 107055.24 37469.33 Apr-18
May-18 0.1194 111610.78 39063.77 May-18
Jun-18 0.1108 103638.58 36273.5 Jun-18
Jul-18 0.0195 18222.17 6377.76 Jul-18
Aug-18 0.0999 93388.61 32686.01 Aug-18
Sep-18 0.1121 104777.47 36672.11 Sep-18
Oct-18 0.1206 112749.67 39462.38 Oct-18
Nov-18 0.0341 31888.79 11161.08 Nov-18
Dec-18 0.0865 80860.87 28301.3 Dec-18
 Pollo

Demanda Demanda Proporción Demanda

Proporción
mensual mensual Mes por mensual
por demanda
Nacional Granja demanda Nacional
0.0522 16716.22 5850.68 Jan-15 0.0347 49457.92
0.0381 12198.18 4269.36 Feb-15 0.0463 65943.89
0.0930 29793.63 10427.77 Mar-15 0.0602 85727.06
0.1227 39297.81 13754.23 Apr-15 0.0694 98915.83
0.0498 15955.84 5584.54 May-15 0.0810 115401.81
0.0631 20222.87 7078 Jun-15 0.0880 125293.39
0.0631 20222.87 7078 Jul-15 0.0926 131887.78
0.1204 38565.34 13497.87 Aug-15 0.0995 141779.36
0.1160 37147.15 13001.5 Sep-15 0.0972 138482.17
0.0843 26987.9 9445.77 Oct-15 0.1088 154968.14
0.1181 37833.01 13241.55 Nov-15 0.1157 164859.72
0.0792 25364.19 8877.47 Dec-15 0.1065 151670.94
0.0256 9141.09 3199.38 Jan-16 0.0713 105402.08
0.0490 17466.37 6113.23 Feb-16 0.0772 114185.59
0.1063 37921.4 13272.49 Mar-16 0.0846 125164.98
0.1198 42726.79 14954.38 Apr-16 0.0861 127360.85
0.0432 15413.6 5394.76 May-16 0.0817 120773.22
0.1340 47790.8 16726.78 Jun-16 0.0861 127360.85
0.1149 40967.8 14338.73 Jul-16 0.0891 131752.61
0.0726 25901.2 9065.42 Aug-16 0.0757 111989.71
0.0704 25109.47 8788.31 Sep-16 0.0802 118577.35
0.0726 25901.2 9065.42 Oct-16 0.0854 126262.91
0.1322 47155.28 16504.35 Nov-16 0.0891 131752.61
0.0592 21116.01 7390.6 Dec-16 0.0935 138340.24
0.1496 55557.61 19445.16 Jan-17 0.0729 113917.31
0.0298 11084.66 3879.63 Feb-17 0.0776 121266.82
0.0790 29337.05 10267.97 Mar-17 0.0752 117592.07
0.1580 58689.6 20541.36 Apr-17 0.0799 124941.57
0.0718 26661.06 9331.37 May-17 0.0823 128616.32
0.0774 28736.51 10057.78 Jun-17 0.0834 130453.7
0.0284 10537.24 3688.03 Jul-17 0.0858 134128.45
0.0478 17759.4 6215.79 Aug-17 0.0846 132291.07
0.0480 17820.5 6237.17 Sep-17 0.0893 139640.58
0.1441 53511.08 18728.88 Oct-17 0.0905 141477.95
0.1236 45890.39 16061.64 Nov-17 0.0905 141477.95
0.0424 15761.9 5516.66 Dec-17 0.0881 137803.2
0.0241 9896.65 3463.83 Jan-18 0.0705 114930.74
0.1408 57776.01 20221.6 Feb-18 0.0723 117877.69
0.0566 23239.19 8133.72 Mar-18 0.0796 129665.45
0.1548 63489.64 22221.37 Apr-18 0.0814 132612.4
0.0504 20678.31 7237.41 May-18 0.0832 135559.34
0.1527 62635.99 21922.6 Jun-18 0.0814 132612.4
0.0805 33032.58 11561.4 Jul-18 0.0850 138506.28
0.0791 32447.1 11356.49 Aug-18 0.0850 138506.28
0.1371 56236.59 19682.81 Sep-18 0.0868 141453.22
0.0791 32447.1 11356.49 Oct-18 0.0895 145873.64
0.0704 28881.05 10108.37 Nov-18 0.0904 147347.11
0.1149 47127.94 16494.78 Dec-18 0.0949 154714.46
 RES
0.2000
Demanda
mensual Granja 0.1800
0.1600
17310.27
0.1400
23080.36
0.1200
30004.47
0.1000
34620.54
0.0800
40390.63
0.0600
43852.69
46160.72 0.0400

49622.78 0.0200
48468.76 0.0000
Jun-14 Dec-14 Jul-15 Jan-16 Aug-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 May
54238.85
57700.9
CERDO
53084.83 0.1800
36890.73 0.1600
39964.96 0.1400
43807.74
0.1200
44576.3
0.1000
42270.63
44576.3 0.0800

46113.41 0.0600
39196.4 0.0400
41502.07 0.0200
44192.02
0.0000
46113.41 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jul-15 Jan-16 Aug-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 May
48419.08
39871.06
HISTÓRICO DEMANDA 2015 - 2018 POLLO
42443.39
41157.22 0.1400

43729.55 0.1200
45015.71
45658.79 0.1000

46944.96 0.0800
46301.88
48874.2 0.0600
49517.28 0.0400
49517.28
48231.12 0.0200
40225.76
0.0000
41257.19 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jul-15 Jan-16 Aug-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Ma
45382.91
46414.34
47445.77 DATOS DE PRODUCCIÓN DE CARNE COLOMBIA
46414.34
48477.2 AÑO RES CERDO POLLO
48477.2 2015 942,285 320,305 1424388
49508.63 2016 910,052 356,611 1478923
51055.77 2017 905,582 371,347 1563607
51571.49 2018 935,025 410,270 1629659
54150.06
Fuente: https://www.fedegan.org.co/estadisticas/produccion-0

AÑO RES CERDO POLLO

2015 329,800 112,107 498,536
2016 318,518 124,814 517,623
2017 316,954 129,971 547,262
2018 327,259 143,595 570,381
-17 Sep-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 May-19

r-17 Sep-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 May-19

015 - 2018 POLLO

ar-17 Sep-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 May-19

A
 Res
Ventas Pronóstico
Proporción por
Mes SES Error
demanda
Jan-15 54393 19038
Feb-15 113586 39755 -73831
Mar-15 35196 12318 -22877
Apr-15 86389 30236 -56153
2015

May-15 44795 15678 -29116

Jun-15 23997 8399 -15598
Jul-15 134384 47034 -87349
Aug-15 63992 22397 -41595
Sep-15 55993 19598 -36396
Oct-15 132784 46474 -86309
Nov-15 73591 25757 -47834
Dec-15 123185 43115 -80070
Jan-16 114361 40026 -74334
Feb-16 101475 35516 -65959
Mar-16 22550 7892 -14657
Apr-16 57986 20295 -37691
2016

May-16 157850 55247 -102602

Jun-16 32214 11275 -20939
Jul-16 146575 51301 -95274
Aug-16 32214 11275 -20939
Sep-16 57986 20295 -37691
Oct-16 88589 31006 -57583
Nov-16 46711 16349 -30362
Dec-16 51543 18040 -33503
Jan-17 40509 14178 -26331
Feb-17 53577 18752 -34825
Mar-17 19601 6860 -12741
Apr-17 88859 31101 -57759
2017

May-17 130676 45736 -84939

Jun-17 92780 32473 -60307
Jul-17 121528 42535 -78993
Aug-17 128062 44822 -83240
Sep-17 45736 16008 -29729
Oct-17 83632 29271 -54361
Nov-17 39203 13721 -25482
Dec-17 61418 22195 -39223
Jan-18 28472 9965 -18507
Feb-18 89972 31490 -58482
Mar-18 52389 18336 -34053
Apr-18 107055 37469 -69586
2018

May-18 111611 39064 -72547

Jun-18 103639 36274 -67365
Jul-18 18222 6378 -11844
 2018
Aug-18 93389 32686 -60703
Sep-18 104777 36672 -68105
Oct-18 112750 39462 -73287
Nov-18 31889 11161 -20728
Dec-18 80861 28301 -52560
Jan-19 41441
Feb-19 41441
Mar-19 41441
Apr-19 41441
2019

May-19 41441
Jun-19 41441
Jul-19 41441
Aug-19 41441
Sep-19 41441
Oct-19 41441
Nov-19 41441
Dec-19 41441

ME -50306
MAD 50306
MSE 3146152455
MAPE 65%

AÑO MES PRONÓSTICO

Jan-19 41441
Feb-19 41441
Mar-19 41441
Apr-19 41441
2019

May-19 41441
Jun-19 41441
Jul-19 41441
Aug-19 41441
Sep-19 41441
Oct-19 41441
Nov-19 41441
Dec-19 41441

El pronóstico de los otros meses estaría sujeto a la demanda real que se tenga en cada uno de los meses del año 2019.

Por pronóstico simple calcular la demanda por mes se realizaría sumando los valores de producción para cada uno de los m
 α

Error Absoluto Error^2 Error %

73831 5451014994 65%

22877 523366645 65% Chart Title
56153 3153175902 65% 250000
29116 847767458 65%
200000
15598 243300610 65%
87349 7629907121 65% 150000
41595 1730137669 65%
36396 1324636653 65% 100000
86309 7449324002 65%
50000
47834 2288107068 65%
80070 6411241401 65% 0
74334 5525593498 65% 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27

65959 4350541677 65%

Column C Co
14657 214841564 65%
37691 1420585037 65%
102602 10527236650 65%
20939 438452172 65%
95274 9077056091 65%
20939 438452172 65%
37691 1420585037 65%
57583 3315794551 65%
30362 921845692 65%
33503 1122437560 65%
26331 693328727 65%
34825 1212784173 65%
12741 162329827 65%
57759 3336058308 65%
84939 7214658970 65%
60307 3636909587 65%
78993 6239958543 65%
83240 6928958475 65%
29729 883795724 65%
54361 2955124314 65%
25482 649319307 65%
39223 1538404535 64%
18507 342504958 65%
58482 3420117505 65%
34053 1159584785 65%
69586 4842198089 65%
72547 5263068181 65%
67365 4538053687 65%
11844 140290031 65%
 60703 3684805336 65%
68105 4638339138 65%
73287 5371025744 65%
20728 429638219 65%
52560 2762507986 65%

cada uno de los meses del año 2019.

es de producción para cada uno de los meses de los años 2016 - 2018.
 0.25

Chart Title

3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47

Column C Column D
 Cerdo
Ventas Pronóstico
Proporción por
Mes Pronóstico Error
demanda
Jan-15 5851 5851
Feb-15 4269 5851 1581
Mar-15 10428 5455 -4972
Apr-15 13754 6698 -7056
2015

May-15 5585 8462 2878

Jun-15 7078 7743 665
Jul-15 7078 7577 499
Aug-15 13498 7452 -6046
Sep-15 13002 8963 -4038
Oct-15 9446 9973 527
Nov-15 13242 9841 -3400
Dec-15 8877 10691 1814
Jan-16 3199 10238 7038
Feb-16 6113 8478 2365
Mar-16 13272 7887 -5386
Apr-16 14954 9233 -5721
2016

May-16 5395 10664 5269

Jun-16 16727 9346 -7380
Jul-16 14339 11191 -3147
Aug-16 9065 11978 2913
Sep-16 8788 11250 2462
Oct-16 9065 10635 1569
Nov-16 16504 10242 -6262
Dec-16 7391 11808 4417
Jan-17 19445 10704 -8742
Feb-17 3880 12889 9009
Mar-17 10268 10637 369
Apr-17 20541 10544 -9997
2017

May-17 9331 13044 3712

Jun-17 10058 12116 2058
Jul-17 3688 11601 7913
Aug-17 6216 9623 3407
Sep-17 6237 8771 2534
Oct-17 18729 8138 -10591
Nov-17 16062 10785 -5276
Dec-17 5517 12104 6588
Jan-18 3464 10458 6994
Feb-18 20222 8709 -11512
Mar-18 8134 11587 3454
Apr-18 22221 10724 -11498
2018

May-18 7237 13598 6361

Jun-18 21923 12008 -9915
Jul-18 11561 14487 2925
 2018
Aug-18 11356 13755 2399
Sep-18 19683 13156 -6527
Oct-18 11356 14787 3431
Nov-18 10108 13930 3821
Dec-18 16495 12974 -3520
Jan-19 13854
Feb-19 13854
Mar-19 13854
Apr-19 13854
2019

May-19 13854
Jun-19 13854
Jul-19 13854
Aug-19 13854
Sep-19 13854
Oct-19 13854
Nov-19 13854
Dec-19 13854

ME -681
MAD 4893
MSE 32732962
MAPE 55%

AÑO MES PRONÓSTICO

Jan-19 0.060
Feb-19 0.064
Mar-19 0.083
Apr-19 0.137
2019

May-19 0.053
Jun-19 0.098
Jul-19 0.068
Aug-19 0.090
Sep-19 0.102
Oct-19 0.093
Nov-19 0.109
Dec-19 0.078

El pronóstico de los otros meses estaría sujeto a la demanda real que se tenga en cada uno de los meses del año 2019.

Por pronóstico simple calcular la demanda por mes se realizaría sumando los valores de producción para cada uno de los m
 α 0.25

Error Absoluto Error^2 Error %

1581 2500555 37%

4972 24724997 48%
7056 49784015 51%
2878 8282058 52%
665 442134 9%
499 248700 7%
6046 36552190 45%
4038 16305573 31%
527 277967 6%
3400 11562510 26%
1814 3289912 20%
7038 49539658 220%
2365 5593144 39%
5386 29003859 41%
5721 32730139 38%
5269 27760734 98%
7380 54470072 44%
3147 9905115 22%
2913 8484877 32% Chart Title
2462 6060295 28% 40000
1569 2462449 17% 35000
6262 39212827 38% 30000
4417 19511958 60% 25000
8742 76416157 45%
20000
9009 81167582 232%
15000
369 135897 4%
10000
9997 99938206 49%
3712 13781214 40% 5000
2058 4234632 20% 0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33
7913 62617333 215%
3407 11608186 55%
Column C Column D
2534 6420768 41%
10591 112174826 57%
5276 27838338 33%
6588 43399368 119%
6994 48911839 202%
11512 132537616 57%
3454 11926740 42%
11498 132193014 52%
6361 40460074 88%
9915 98298730 45%
2925 8557170 25%
 2399 5754560 21%
6527 42603966 33%
3431 11771368 30%
3821 14602535 38%
3520 12393351 21%

n cada uno de los meses del año 2019.

ores de producción para cada uno de los meses de los años 2016 - 2018.
 Chart Title

5 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47

Column C Column D
 Pollo
Ventas Pronóstico
Proporción por
Mes Pronóstico Error Error Absoluto
demanda
Jan-15 17310 17310.2708
Feb-15 23080 17310.2708 -5770 5770
Mar-15 30004 18752.7934 -11252 11252
Apr-15 34621 21565.7124 -13055 13055
2015

May-15 40391 24829.4197 -15561 15561

Jun-15 43853 28719.7228 -15133 15133
Jul-15 46161 32502.9636 -13658 13658
Aug-15 49623 35917.4033 -13705 13705
Sep-15 48469 39343.7465 -9125 9125
Oct-15 54239 41624.9995 -12614 12614
Nov-15 57701 44778.4618 -12922 12922
Dec-15 53085 48009.0720 -5076 5076
Jan-16 36891 49278.0117 12387 12387
Feb-16 39965 46181.1911 6216 6216
Mar-16 43808 44627.1326 819 819
Apr-16 44576 44422.2848 -154 154
2016

May-16 42271 44460.7882 2190 2190

Jun-16 44576 43913.2481 -663 663
Jul-16 46113 44079.0106 -2034 2034
Aug-16 39196 44587.6110 5391 5391
Sep-16 41502 43239.8083 1738 1738
Oct-16 44192 42805.3739 -1387 1387
Nov-16 46113 43152.0354 -2961 2961
Dec-16 48419 43892.3796 -4527 4527
Jan-17 39871 45024.0553 5153 5153
Feb-17 42443 43735.8064 1292 1292
Mar-17 41157 43412.7014 2255 2255
Apr-17 43730 42848.8318 -881 881
2017

May-17 45016 43069.0112 -1947 1947

Jun-17 45659 43555.6866 -2103 2103
Jul-17 46945 44081.4635 -2863 2863
Aug-17 46302 44797.3370 -1505 1505
Sep-17 48874 45173.4717 -3701 3701
Oct-17 49517 46098.6544 -3419 3419
Nov-17 49517 46953.3118 -2564 2564
Dec-17 48231 47594.3048 -637 637
Jan-18 40226 47753.5088 7528 7528
Feb-18 41257 45871.5716 4614 4614
Mar-18 45383 44717.9762 -665 665
Apr-18 46414 44884.2094 -1530 1530
2018

May-18 47446 45266.7417 -2179 2179

Jun-18 46414 45811.4983 -603 603
Jul-18 48477 45962.2084 -2515 2515
 2018
Aug-18 48477 46590.9558 -1886 1886
Sep-18 49509 47062.5164 -2446 2446
Oct-18 51056 47674.0443 -3382 3382
Nov-18 51571 48519.4763 -3052 3052
Dec-18 54150 49282.4791 -4868 4868
Jan-19 0.000
Feb-19 0.000
Mar-19 0.000
Apr-19 0.000
2019

May-19 0.000
Jun-19 0.000
Jul-19 0.000
Aug-19 0.000
Sep-19 0.000
Oct-19 0.000
Nov-19 0.000
Dec-19 0.000

ME -2825
MAD 4935
MSE 44844573
MAPE 11.5%
AÑO MES PRONÓSTICO
Jan-19 0.060
Feb-19 0.064
Mar-19 0.083
Apr-19 0.137
2019

May-19 0.053
Jun-19 0.098
Jul-19 0.068
Aug-19 0.090
Sep-19 0.102
Oct-19 0.093
Nov-19 0.109
Dec-19 0.078

El pronóstico de los otros meses estaría sujeto a la demanda real que se tenga en cada uno de los meses del año 2019.

Por pronóstico simple calcular la demanda por mes se realizaría sumando los valores de producción para cada uno de los m
 α 0.25

Error^2 Error %

33293942 25%
126600214 38%
170428567 38%
242151326 39%
229006579 35%
186534370 30%
187837252 28%
83265840 19%
159109190 23%
166989482 22%
25763325 10%
153444756 34%
38641566 16%
671402 2%
23720 0%
4796803 5%
439636 1%
4138789 4%
29065153 14%
3019731 4%
1922787 3%
8769751 6%
20491041 9% Chart Title
26553363 13% 120000
1670350 3%
100000
5087183 5%
775664 2% 80000
3789647 4%
60000
4423062 5%
8199598 6% 40000
2263637 3%
20000
13695407 8%
11687028 7% 0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47
6573953 5%
405535 1%
Column C Column D
56667000 19%
21292519 11%
442135 1%
2341296 3%
4748157 5%
363416 1%
6325173 5%
 3557910 4%
5983461 5%
11436086 7%
9314771 6%
23693361 9%

e los meses del año 2019.

ucción para cada uno de los meses de los años 2016 - 2018.
e

27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47

Column D
 Res
Ventas
Mes Proporción por St Gt
demanda
0 26700 10
1 Jan-15 19038 24792 -661
2 Feb-15 39755 28036 706
3 Mar-15 12318 24636 -731
4 Apr-15 30236 25488 -177
2015

5 May-15 15678 22902 -1020

6 Jun-15 8399 18511 -2200
7 Jul-15 47034 23992 488
8 Aug-15 22397 23960 306
9 Sep-15 19598 23099 -102
10 Oct-15 46474 28866 1952
11 Nov-15 25757 29552 1509
12 Dec-15 43115 34075 2564
13 Jan-16 40026 37485 2860
14 Feb-16 35516 39138 2438
15 Mar-16 7892 33155 -510
16 Apr-16 20295 29558 -1590
2016

17 May-16 55247 34787 797

18 Jun-16 11275 29507 -1330
19 Jul-16 51301 33958 693
20 Aug-16 11275 28807 -1352
21 Sep-16 20295 25664 -1979
22 Oct-16 31006 25516 -1338
23 Nov-16 16349 22220 -2023
24 Dec-16 18040 19658 -2212
25 Jan-17 14178 16629 -2498
26 Feb-17 18752 15286 -2094
27 Mar-17 6860 11610 -2648
28 Apr-17 31101 14497 -711
2017

29 May-17 45736 21774 2085

30 Jun-17 32473 26012 2839
31 Jul-17 42535 32272 4036
32 Aug-17 44822 38437 4781
33 Sep-17 16008 36415 2400
34 Oct-17 29271 36429 1565
35 Nov-17 13721 31926 -559
36 Dec-17 22195 29074 -1361
37 Jan-18 9965 23276 -2914
38 Feb-18 31490 23144 -1941
39 Mar-18 18336 20486 -2191
018
 40 Apr-18 37469 23089 -514

2018 41
42
May-18
Jun-18
39064
36274
26697
29788
929
1686
43 Jul-18 6378 25200 -510
44 Aug-18 32686 26689 190
45 Sep-18 36672 29327 1046
46 Oct-18 39462 32645 1842
47 Nov-18 11161 28656 -199
48 Dec-18 28301 28418 -213
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
2019

May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19

El pronóstico de los otros meses estaría sujeto a la demanda real que se tenga en cada uno de los meses del año 2019.

Por pronóstico simple calcular la demanda por mes se realizaría sumando los valores de producción para cada uno de los mese
 alfa
beta
Pronóstico
Pronóstico Error Error Error^2 % Error
Absoluto m
b
26710 7672 7672 58857273 40%
24130 -15625 15625 244139595 39%
28742 16424 16424 269738853 133%
23905 -6331 6331 40085247 21%
25311 9632 9632 92784454 61% Ch
21882 13483 13483 181800350 161% 90000
16312 -30723 30723 943884410 65% 80000
24481 2083 2083 4340073 9% 70000
24266 4668 4668 21791637 24% 60000
22996 -23478 23478 551218343 51% 50000
30818 5061 5061 25612072 20% 40000
31062 -12053 12053 145279192 28% 30000
36639 -3388 3388 11475859 8% 20000
40346 4829 4829 23323395 14% 10000
41576 33683 33683 1134567421 427% 0
32645 12350 12350 152529910 61% 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19

27967 -27280 27280 744203454 49%

Colum
35584 24309 24309 590926739 216%
28176 -23125 23125 534758612 45%
34651 23376 23376 546416936 207%
27454 7159 7159 51256208 35%
23686 -7321 7321 53589860 24%
24178 7829 7829 61290907 48%
20197 2157 2157 4653189 12%
17446 3267 3267 10676518 23%
14131 -4621 4621 21353142 25%
13193 6332 6332 40096552 92%
8962 -22139 22139 490128321 71%
13786 -31950 31950 1020821988 70%
23859 -8614 8614 74201119 27%
28851 -13684 13684 187242418 32%
36308 -8513 8513 72477508 19%
43218 27210 27210 740387140 170%
38816 9544 9544 91091746 33%
37995 24274 24274 589210701 177%
31367 9172 9172 84131419 41%
27713 17748 17748 314978013 178%
20362 -11129 11129 123844540 35%
21203 2867 2867 8220496 16%
 18295 -19174 19174 367656582 51%
22575 -16489 16489 271884283 42%
27626 -8647 8647 74776324 24%
31474 25096 25096 629807893 393%
24690 -7996 7996 63943144 24%
26878 -9794 9794 95920777 27%
30373 -9089 9089 82613922 23%
34487 23326 23326 544110781 209%
28456 155 155 24075 1%
28205
56623
85040
113458
141876
170293
198711
227129
255546
283964
312382
340799

ME 53
MAD 13435
MSE 260169237
MAPE 75.0%
no de los meses del año 2019.

producción para cada uno de los meses de los años 2016 - 2018.
 0.25 0.1
0.35 0.1

9.904303
26699.621659

Chart Title

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47

Column D Column G
AÑO MES PRONOSTICO
Jan-19 28205
Feb-19 56623
Mar-19 85040
Apr-19 113458
2019

May-19 141876
Jun-19 170293
Jul-19 198711
Aug-19 227129
Sep-19 255546
Oct-19 283964
Nov-19 312382
Dec-19 340799
 Cerdo
Ventas
Mes Proporción por St Gt
demanda
0 8224 116
1 Jan-15 5851 7717 -102
2 Feb-15 4269 6779 -395
3 Mar-15 10428 7395 -41
4 Apr-15 13754 8954 519
2015

5 May-15 5585 8501 179

6 Jun-15 7078 8279 39
7 Jul-15 7078 8008 -70
8 Aug-15 13498 9328 417
9 Sep-15 13002 10559 702
10 Oct-15 9446 10807 543
11 Nov-15 13242 11823 708
12 Dec-15 8877 11618 389
13 Jan-16 3199 9805 -382
14 Feb-16 6113 8595 -671
15 Mar-16 13272 9261 -203
16 Apr-16 14954 10532 313
2016

17 May-16 5395 9482 -164

18 Jun-16 16727 11170 484
19 Jul-16 14339 12325 719
20 Aug-16 9065 12049 371
21 Sep-16 8788 11512 53
22 Oct-16 9065 10940 -166
23 Nov-16 16504 12207 336
24 Dec-16 7391 11255 -115
25 Jan-17 19445 13216 612
26 Feb-17 3880 11340 -259
27 Mar-17 10268 10878 -330
28 Apr-17 20541 13046 544
2017

29 May-17 9331 12526 172

30 Jun-17 10058 12038 -59
31 Jul-17 3688 9906 -785
32 Aug-17 6216 8395 -1039
33 Sep-17 6237 7076 -1137
34 Oct-17 18729 9137 -18
35 Nov-17 16062 10855 590
36 Dec-17 5517 9962 71
37 Jan-18 3464 8391 -504
38 Feb-18 20222 10971 575
39 Mar-18 8134 10693 277
018
 40 Apr-18 22221 13783 1261

2018 41
42
May-18
Jun-18
7237
21923
13093
15734
578
1300
43 Jul-18 11561 15666 821
44 Aug-18 11356 15205 372
45 Sep-18 19683 16604 732
46 Oct-18 11356 15841 209
47 Nov-18 10108 14564 -311
48 Dec-18 16495 14813 -115
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
2019

May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19

El pronóstico de los otros meses estaría sujeto a la demanda real que se tenga en cada uno de los meses del año 2019.

Por pronóstico simple calcular la demanda por mes se realizaría sumando los valores de producción para cada uno de los mese
 alfa
beta
Pronóstico
Pronóstico Error Error Error^2 % Error
Absoluto m
b
8340 2489 2489 6194318 43%
7615 3346 3346 11193934 78%
6384 -4044 4044 16354503 39%
7354 -6401 6401 40967919 47%
9473 3888 3888 15117912 70% C
8679 1601 1601 2564498 23% 40000
8318 1240 1240 1536768 18% 35000
7938 -5560 5560 30913335 41%
30000
9745 -3257 3257 10607915 25%
25000
11260 1815 1815 3292870 19%
20000
11350 -1892 1892 3579566 14%
12531 3653 3653 13348057 41% 15000

12006 8807 8807 77561803 275% 10000

9423 3309 3309 10952429 54% 5000
7924 -5349 5349 28608029 40% 0
9058 -5897 5897 34772650 39% 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 1

10844 5449 5449 29697029 101%

Col
9318 -7409 7409 54896506 44%
11654 -2685 2685 7208583 19%
13044 3979 3979 15828949 44%
12420 3632 3632 13190068 41%
11565 2500 2500 6248787 28%
10775 -5730 5730 32831028 35%
12543 5152 5152 26543131 70%
11139 -8306 8306 68985025 43%
13827 9948 9948 98959206 256%
11082 814 814 662078 8%
10548 -9993 9993 99863568 49%
13591 4259 4259 18143023 46%
12698 2640 2640 6968774 26%
11978 8290 8290 68728988 225%
9121 2905 2905 8440378 47%
7356 1119 1119 1251261 18%
5939 -12790 12790 163573221 68%
9119 -6943 6943 48200672 43%
11444 5928 5928 35137904 107%
10034 6570 6570 43161020 190%
7887 -12334 12334 152134137 61%
11546 3413 3413 11646256 42%
 10970 -11251 11251 126591557 51%
15044 7807 7807 60946951 108%
13671 -8252 8252 68092085 38%
17034 5473 5473 29949754 47%
16487 5131 5131 26325405 45%
15577 -4106 4106 16856889 21%
17335 5979 5979 35745702 53%
16049 5941 5941 35292990 59%
14253 -2242 2242 5026776 14%
14698
29511
44325
59138
73951
88764
103578
118391
133204
148017
162831
177644

ME 54.90740
MAD 5239.878
MSE 35931129.300
MAPE 60.6%

no de los meses del año 2019.

producción para cada uno de los meses de los años 2016 - 2018.
 0.25
0.35

115.563974
8223.9514642

Chart Title

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47

Column D Column G
AÑO MES PRONÓSTICO
Jan-19 14698
Feb-19 29511
Mar-19 44325
Apr-19 59138
2019

May-19 73951
Jun-19 88764
Jul-19 103578
Aug-19 118391
Sep-19 133204
Oct-19 148017
Nov-19 162831
Dec-19 177644
 Pollo
Ventas
Mes Proporción por St Gt
demanda
0 38298 251
1 Jan-15 17310 33240 -1607
2 Feb-15 23080 29495 -2356
3 Mar-15 30004 27855 -2105
4 Apr-15 34621 27968 -1329
2015

5 May-15 40391 30077 -125

6 Jun-15 43853 33427 1091
7 Jul-15 46161 37429 2110
8 Aug-15 49623 42059 2992
9 Sep-15 48469 45906 3291
10 Oct-15 54239 50457 3732
11 Nov-15 57701 55067 4039
12 Dec-15 53085 57601 3513
13 Jan-16 36891 55058 1393
14 Feb-16 39965 52330 -50
15 Mar-16 43808 50162 -791
16 Apr-16 44576 48172 -1210
2016

17 May-16 42271 45789 -1621

18 Jun-16 44576 44270 -1585
19 Jul-16 46113 43542 -1285
20 Aug-16 39196 41492 -1553
21 Sep-16 41502 40330 -1416
22 Oct-16 44192 40233 -954
23 Nov-16 46113 40987 -356
24 Dec-16 48419 42578 325
25 Jan-17 39871 42145 60
26 Feb-17 42443 42265 81
27 Mar-17 41157 42048 -23
28 Apr-17 43730 42451 126
2017

29 May-17 45016 43187 339

30 Jun-17 45659 44059 526
31 Jul-17 46945 45175 732
32 Aug-17 46302 46006 767
33 Sep-17 48874 47298 951
34 Oct-17 49517 48566 1062
35 Nov-17 49517 49600 1052
36 Dec-17 48231 50047 840
37 Jan-18 40226 48222 -93
38 Feb-18 41257 46411 -694
39 Mar-18 45383 45634 -723
018
 40 Apr-18 46414 45286 -592

2018 41
42
May-18
Jun-18
47446
46414
45383
45377
-351
-230
43 Jul-18 48477 45980 61
44 Aug-18 48477 46650 275
45 Sep-18 49509 47571 501
46 Oct-18 51056 48818 762
47 Nov-18 51571 50077 936
48 Dec-18 54150 51798 1211
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
2019

May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
 alfa
beta
Pronóstico
Pronóstico Error Error Error^2 % Error
Absoluto m
b
38550 21239 21239 451109295 122.7%
31633 8552 8552 73140603 37.1%
27139 -2865 2865 8210742 9.6%
25751 -8870 8870 78675618 25.6%
26639 -13751 13751 189095320 34.0% C
29952 -13901 13901 193234385 31.7% 120000
34518 -11643 11643 135554678 25.2%
100000
39538 -10085 10085 101697283 20.3%
45051 -3417 3417 11678107 7.1% 80000
49197 -5042 5042 25422066 9.3%
60000
54190 -3511 3511 12329546 6.1%
59107 6022 6022 36264932 11.3% 40000
61114 24223 24223 586762188 65.7%
20000
56451 16486 16486 271793850 41.3%
52280 8472 8472 71780244 19.3% 0
49371 4795 4795 22990439 10.8% 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19

46962 4691 4691 22009218 11.1%

Colu
44168 -408 408 166478 0.9%
42685 -3428 3428 11753384 7.4%
42257 3061 3061 9366998 7.8%
39939 -1563 1563 2443809 3.8%
38913 -5279 5279 27863926 11.9%
39279 -6835 6835 46713296 14.8%
40631 -7788 7788 60653196 16.1%
42903 3032 3032 9193940 7.6%
42205 -238 238 56828 0.6%
42345 1188 1188 1411485 2.9%
42025 -1705 1705 2905495 3.9%
42577 -2439 2439 5947247 5.4%
43526 -2133 2133 4549006 4.7%
44585 -2360 2360 5569151 5.0%
45907 -394 394 155604 0.9%
46773 -2101 2101 4415380 4.3%
48249 -1268 1268 1608545 2.6%
49628 111 111 12215 0.2%
50652 2421 2421 5861800 5.0%
50887 10661 10661 113665705 26.5%
48129 6872 6872 47223978 16.7%
45717 334 334 111758 0.7%
44910 -1504 1504 2261747 3.2%
44695 -2751 2751 7567880 5.8%
45032 -1383 1383 1911883 3.0%
45147 -3330 3330 11087628 6.9%
46041 -2436 2436 5933688 5.0%
46925 -2584 2584 6675940 5.2%
48071 -2984 2984 8906157 5.8%
49579 -1992 1992 3968708 3.9%
51013 -3137 3137 9838194 5.8%
53008
104806
156603
208401
260199
311996
363794
415592
467389
519187
570984
622782

ME -841.98952
MAD 5318.470
MSE 56490615.879
MAPE 14.2%
 0.25 1
0.35 0.1

251.260
38298.345

Chart Title
0

0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47

Column D Column G
AÑO MES PRONOSTICO
Jan-19 53008
Feb-19 104806
Mar-19 156603
Apr-19 208401
2019

May-19 260199
Jun-19 311996
Jul-19 363794
Aug-19 415592
Sep-19 467389
Oct-19 519187
Nov-19 570984
Dec-19 622782
 m 9.904303
Res b 26699.621659

Pronóstico
Proporción por
Mes Pronóstico Error Error Absoluto
demanda
0
1 Jan-15 19038 264441 245403 245403
2 Feb-15 39755 528882 489127 489127
3 Mar-15 12318 793323 781005 781005
4 Apr-15 30236 1057765 1027528 1027528
5 May-15 15678 1322206 1306528 1306528
6 Jun-15 8399 1586647 1578248 1578248
H I STÓRI CO D EMA ND A 20 15 - 2018 RES

7 Jul-15 47034 1851088 1804054 1804054

8 Aug-15 22397 2115529 2093132 2093132
9 Sep-15 19598 2379970 2360373 2360373
10 Oct-15 46474 2644411 2597937 2597937
11 Nov-15 25757 2908852 2883096 2883096
12 Dec-15 43115 3173294 3130179 3130179
13 Jan-16 40026 3437735 3397709 3397709
14 Feb-16 35516 3702176 3666660 3666660
15 Mar-16 7892 3966617 3958725 3958725
16 Apr-16 20295 4231058 4210763 4210763
17 May-16 55247 4495499 4440252 4440252
18 Jun-16 11275 4759940 4748665 4748665
19 Jul-16 51301 5024382 4973080 4973080
20 Aug-16 11275 5288823 5277548 5277548
21 Sep-16 20295 5553264 5532969 5532969
22 Oct-16 31006 5817705 5786699 5786699
23 Nov-16 16349 6082146 6065797 6065797
24 Dec-16 18040 6346587 6328547 6328547
25 Jan-17 14178 6611028 6596850 6596850
26 Feb-17 18752 6875469 6856717 6856717
27 Mar-17 6860 7139911 7133050 7133050
28 Apr-17 31101 7404352 7373251 7373251
29 May-17 45736 7668793 7623056 7623056
30 Jun-17 32473 7933234 7900761 7900761
31 Jul-17 42535 8197675 8155140 8155140
32 Aug-17 44822 8462116 8417295 8417295
33 Sep-17 16008 8726557 8710550 8710550
34 Oct-17 29271 8990999 8961727 8961727
35 Nov-17 13721 9255440 9241719 9241719
36 Dec-17 22195 9519881 9497686 9497686
37 Jan-18 9965 9784322 9774357 9774357
38 Feb-18 31490 10048763 10017273 10017273
39 Mar-18 18336 10313204 10294868 10294868
40 Apr-18 37469 10577645 10540176 10540176
41 May-18 39064 10842086 10803023 10803023
42 Jun-18 36274 11106528 11070254 11070254
43 Jul-18 6378 11370969 11364591 11364591
44 Aug-18 32686 11635410 11602724 11602724
45 Sep-18 36672 11899851 11863179 11863179
46 Oct-18 39462 12164292 12124830 12124830
47 Nov-18 11161 12428733 12417572 12417572
48 Dec-18 28301 12693174 12664873 12664873

ME
MAD
MSE
MAPE
 Chart Title
60000
Error^2 % Error
50000
60222856151 13
40000
239245336330 12
609968654923 63
30000
1055814242684 34
f(x) = 9.90430260826166 x + 26699.621658909
1707014305783 83 20000 R² = 0.00010707078294
2490866180255 188
3254609634460 38 10000
4381200702591 93
5571358733831 120 0
0 10 20 30 4
6749276636541 56
8312240240231 112
9798019639972 73
11544423328104 85
Chart Title
14000000
13444393102095 103
15671499668225 502 12000000
17730526339246 207 10000000
19715836463092 80
8000000
22549823112649 421
24731528215962 97 6000000

27852509389993 468 4000000

30613743921029 273 2000000
33485882042838 187
0
36793897178958 371 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31
40050509784299 351
43518430012982 465 Column C Column D
47014574776470 366
50880403815751 1040
54364829014945 237
58110988511607 167
62422025693476 243
66506311573890 192
70850846743439 188
75873674469240 544
80312553787929 306
85409364453477 674
90206034222328 428
95538047959648 981
100345755318068 318
105984309368593 561
111095309358555 281
116705298528417 277
122550524929912 305
129153927140669 1782
134623199884790 355
140735012340261 323
147011495479233 307
154196098014406 1113
160399009426153 448

6451865
6451865
55046300719468
33191%
 Chart Title

0260826166 x + 26699.621658909
707078294

20 30 40 50 60

Chart Title

9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47

Column C Column D
 m 115.563974
Cerdo b 8223.951464

Pronóstico
Proporción por
Mes Pronóstico Error Error Absoluto
demanda
0
1 Jan-15 5851 950393 944542 944542
2 Feb-15 4269 1900785 1896516 1896516
3 Mar-15 10428 2851178 2840750 2840750
4 Apr-15 13754 3801570 3787816 3787816
5 May-15 5585 4751963 4746378 4746378
6 Jun-15 7078 5702355 5695277 5695277
H I STÓRI CO D EMA ND A 20 15 - 2018 RES

7 Jul-15 7078 6652748 6645670 6645670

8 Aug-15 13498 7603140 7589642 7589642
9 Sep-15 13002 8553533 8540531 8540531
10 Oct-15 9446 9503925 9494479 9494479
11 Nov-15 13242 10454318 10441076 10441076
12 Dec-15 8877 11404710 11395833 11395833
13 Jan-16 3199 12355103 12351903 12351903
14 Feb-16 6113 13305495 13299382 13299382
15 Mar-16 13272 14255888 14242615 14242615
16 Apr-16 14954 15206280 15191326 15191326
17 May-16 5395 16156673 16151278 16151278
18 Jun-16 16727 17107065 17090338 17090338
19 Jul-16 14339 18057458 18043119 18043119
20 Aug-16 9065 19007850 18998785 18998785
21 Sep-16 8788 19958243 19949454 19949454
22 Oct-16 9065 20908635 20899570 20899570
23 Nov-16 16504 21859028 21842523 21842523
24 Dec-16 7391 22809420 22802030 22802030
25 Jan-17 19445 23759813 23740368 23740368
26 Feb-17 3880 24710205 24706326 24706326
27 Mar-17 10268 25660598 25650330 25650330
28 Apr-17 20541 26610990 26590449 26590449
29 May-17 9331 27561383 27552051 27552051
30 Jun-17 10058 28511775 28501718 28501718
31 Jul-17 3688 29462168 29458480 29458480
32 Aug-17 6216 30412560 30406345 30406345
33 Sep-17 6237 31362953 31356716 31356716
34 Oct-17 18729 32313345 32294617 32294617
35 Nov-17 16062 33263738 33247676 33247676
36 Dec-17 5517 34214130 34208614 34208614
37 Jan-18 3464 35164523 35161059 35161059
38 Feb-18 20222 36114915 36094694 36094694
39 Mar-18 8134 37065308 37057174 37057174
40 Apr-18 22221 38015700 37993479 37993479
41 May-18 7237 38966093 38958856 38958856
42 Jun-18 21923 39916486 39894563 39894563
43 Jul-18 11561 40866878 40855317 40855317
44 Aug-18 11356 41817271 41805914 41805914
45 Sep-18 19683 42767663 42747980 42747980
46 Oct-18 11356 43718056 43706699 43706699
47 Nov-18 10108 44668448 44658340 44658340
48 Dec-18 16495 45618841 45602346 45602346

ME
MAD
MSE
MAPE
 Chart Title
25000
Error^2 % Error

20000
892159278612 16144%
3596771654962 44422%
15000
8069859224111 27242%
f(x) = 115.563973873235 x + 8223.95146419048
14347548652093 27539% R² = 0.09136339602884
10000
22528104293014 84991%
32436180901304 80464%
5000
44164924191788 93892%
57602669168394 56228%
72940671572345 65689% 0
0 10 20 30
90145138232765 100516%
109016069698450 78851%
129865002468305 128368% Chart Title
152569514513014 386071% 50000000
176873559953648 217551% 45000000
202852087472094 107309% 40000000
35000000
230776380144361 101584%
30000000
260863779303361 299388%
25000000
292079667998392 102174%
20000000
325554143291594 125835% 15000000
360953824788748 209574% 10000000
397980732526938 227000% 5000000
436792019843446 230542% 0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27
477095829851697 132344%
519932557922634 308527%
Column C Colum
563605055758791 122089%
610402528815318 636821%
657939421886385 249809%
707051976966815 129448%
759115540782577 295263%
812347905316168 283380%
867802034623733 798758%
924545791917265 489179%
983243621134245 502739%
1042942257079490 172432%
1105407978527220 207001%
1170229256278220 620096%
1236300078470710 1015092%
1302826924801380 178496%
1373234163875510 455599%
1443504455117120 170977%
1517792428897110 538298%
1591576150034041 181979%
1669156895968465 353377%
1747734449443620 368124%
1827389814564830 217184%
1910275543852620 384861%
1994367305151059 441796%
2079573942703948 276465%

23273561
23273561
714964473310682
257115%
 Chart Title

3973873235 x + 8223.95146419048
339602884

20 30 40 50 60

Chart Title

9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47

Column C Column D
 m 251.259693
Pollo b 38298.344808

Pronóstico
Proporción por
Mes Pronóstico Error Error Absoluto
demanda
0
1 Jan-15 17310 9622830 9605520 9605520
2 Feb-15 23080 19245661 19222580 19222580
3 Mar-15 30004 28868491 28838487 28838487
4 Apr-15 34621 38491321 38456701 38456701
5 May-15 40391 48114152 48073761 48073761
6 Jun-15 43853 57736982 57693130 57693130
H I STÓRI CO D EMA ND A 20 15 - 2018 RES

7 Jul-15 46161 67359813 67313652 67313652

8 Aug-15 49623 76982643 76933020 76933020
9 Sep-15 48469 86605473 86557005 86557005
10 Oct-15 54239 96228304 96174065 96174065
11 Nov-15 57701 105851134 105793433 105793433
12 Dec-15 53085 115473964 115420880 115420880
13 Jan-16 36891 125096795 125059904 125059904
14 Feb-16 39965 134719625 134679660 134679660
15 Mar-16 43808 144342456 144298648 144298648
16 Apr-16 44576 153965286 153920710 153920710
17 May-16 42271 163588116 163545846 163545846
18 Jun-16 44576 173210947 173166370 173166370
19 Jul-16 46113 182833777 182787664 182787664
20 Aug-16 39196 192456607 192417411 192417411
21 Sep-16 41502 202079438 202037936 202037936
22 Oct-16 44192 211702268 211658076 211658076
23 Nov-16 46113 221325098 221278985 221278985
24 Dec-16 48419 230947929 230899510 230899510
25 Jan-17 39871 240570759 240530888 240530888
26 Feb-17 42443 250193590 250151146 250151146
27 Mar-17 41157 259816420 259775263 259775263
28 Apr-17 43730 269439250 269395521 269395521
29 May-17 45016 279062081 279017065 279017065
30 Jun-17 45659 288684911 288639252 288639252
31 Jul-17 46945 298307741 298260796 298260796
32 Aug-17 46302 307930572 307884270 307884270
33 Sep-17 48874 317553402 317504528 317504528
34 Oct-17 49517 327176232 327126715 327126715
35 Nov-17 49517 336799063 336749546 336749546
36 Dec-17 48231 346421893 346373662 346373662
37 Jan-18 40226 356044724 356004498 356004498
38 Feb-18 41257 365667554 365626297 365626297
39 Mar-18 45383 375290384 375245001 375245001
40 Apr-18 46414 384913215 384866800 384866800
41 May-18 47446 394536045 394488599 394488599
42 Jun-18 46414 404158875 404112461 404112461
43 Jul-18 48477 413781706 413733229 413733229
44 Aug-18 48477 423404536 423356059 423356059
45 Sep-18 49509 433027367 432977858 432977858
46 Oct-18 51056 442650197 442599141 442599141
47 Nov-18 51571 452273027 452221456 452221456
48 Dec-18 54150 461895858 461841708 461841708

ME
MAD
MSE
MAPE
 Chart Title
70000
Error^2 % Error
60000

92266016312389 55490% 50000

f(x) = 251.259693203803 x + 38298.3448081735
369507596170269 83285% R² = 0.235229546748729
40000
831658311149116 96114%
1478917846049804 111081% 30000
2311086516071460 119022%
3328497193139905 131561% 20000

4531127724680745 145825% 10000

5918689590528468 155036%
7492115035301599 178583% 0
0 10 20 30
9249450743720760 177316%
11192250493662100 183348%
13321979440718400 217427% Chart Title
15639979597912500 339001% 500000000
450000000
18138610865371200 336994%
400000000
20822099745163000 329391%
350000000
23691584834270500 345297%
300000000
26747243615134000 386902% 250000000
29986591803770200 388472% 200000000
33411329948100800 396387% 150000000
37024460030574500 490906% 100000000
40819327433710200 486814% 50000000
44799141156287500 478951% 0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
48964389212552900 479858%
53314583588259800 476877% Column C C
57855108134055000 603272%
62575595919329000 589376%
67483187099567600 631178%
72573946583219900 616049%
77850522517714100 619821%
83312617914704400 632166%
88959502675514200 635341%
94792723626593100 664950%
100809125236525000 649636%
107011887787306000 660631%
113400256428852000 680065%
119974713783406000 718154%
126739202459763000 885016%
133682588871683000 886212%
140808811070454000 826842%
 148122453996250000 829198%
155621254951613000 831452%
163306881186740000 870663%
171175184423493000 853459%
179230352638977000 873310%
187469825409446000 874550%
195893999699295000 866893%
204504245039084000 876883%
213297762824033000 852892%

235714889.77723
235714889.777
73331846637838100.000
512873.9%
 Chart Title

9693203803 x + 38298.3448081735
9546748729

20 30 40 50 60

Chart Title

9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47

Column C Column D
 Enero
Febrero
Marzo
Abril
Mayo
Junio
Julio
Agosto
Septiembre
Octubre
Noviembre
Diciembre
PROMEDIO
PROMED

PARAMETROS
α 0.15 Parámetro de suavización de nivel
β 0.25 Parámetro de suavización de tendencia
ϒ 0.25 Parámetro de suavización de índice estacional
N 12 Longitud de la estación

T0 67
S0 28509.94747

Res

Proporción por
Mes t St Gt Ct
demanda
-11 0.790
-10 1.184
-9 0.423
-8 1.108
-7 1.442
-6 0.807
-5 1.382
-4 1.019
 -3 0.848
-2 1.348
-1 0.621
0 28510 67 1.029
Jan-15 1 19038 27146 -291 0.77
Feb-15 2 39755 28790 193 1.23
Mar-15 3 12318 26483 -432 0.43
Apr-15 4 30236 26678 -275 1.11
2015

May-15 5 15678 24794 -678 1.24

Jun-15 6 8399 21759 -1267 0.70
Jul-15 7 47034 24473 -272 1.52
Aug-15 8 22397 23930 -339 1.00
Sep-15 9 19598 22992 -489 0.85
Oct-15 10 46474 26098 410 1.46
Nov-15 11 25757 26395 382 0.71
Dec-15 12 43115 29227 994 1.14
Jan-16 13 40026 31692 1362 0.88
Feb-16 14 35516 33423 1454 1.18
Mar-16 15 7892 30829 442 0.38
Apr-16 16 20295 29625 31 1.00
2016

May-16 17 55247 33494 990 1.33

Jun-16 18 11275 31003 120 0.61
Jul-16 19 51301 34149 876 1.50
Aug-16 20 11275 31463 -14 0.83
Sep-16 21 20295 29775 -433 0.80
Oct-16 22 31006 29592 -370 1.34
Nov-16 23 16349 27291 -853 0.68
Dec-16 24 18040 25178 -1168 1.02
Jan-17 25 14178 22535 -1537 0.85
Feb-17 26 18752 20661 -1621 1.15
Mar-17 27 6860 17213 -2078 0.40
Apr-17 28 31101 17530 -1479 1.22
2017

May-17 29 45736 20504 -366 1.59

Jun-17 30 32473 21988 97 0.84
Jul-17 31 42535 25152 863 1.59
Aug-17 32 44822 28836 1569 1.03
Sep-17 33 16008 28245 1029 0.76
Oct-17 34 29271 29273 1029 1.29
Nov-17 35 13721 27815 407 0.65
Dec-17 36 22195 27317 181 1.00
Jan-18 37 9965 24868 -477 0.72
Feb-18 38 31490 25456 -211 1.14
Mar-18 39 18336 24209 -470 0.48
Apr-18 40 37469 25799 45 1.25
2018

May-18 41 39064 27826 541 1.51

Jun-18 42 36274 29553 837 0.92
2018
Jul-18 43 6378 26788 -63 1.22
Aug-18 44 32686 27619 160 1.05
Sep-18 45 36672 29113 494 0.87
Oct-18 46 39462 31085 863 1.26
Nov-18 47 11161 28830 84 0.57
Dec-18 48 28301 28822 61 0.97
Jan-19 49
Feb-19 50
Mar-19 51
Apr-19 52
2019

May-19 53
Jun-19 54
PRONÓSTICO
Jul-19 55
Aug-19 56
Sep-19 57
Oct-19 58
Nov-19 59
Dec-19 60
 RES
AÑO 2015 AÑO 2016 AÑO 2017 AÑO 2018
19038 40026 14178 9965
39755 35516 18752 31490
12318 7892 6860 18336
30236 20295 31101 37469
15678 55247 45736 39064
8399 11275 32473 36274
47034 51301 42535 6378
22397 11275 44822 32686
19598 20295 16008 36672
46474 31006 29271 39462
25757 16349 13721 11161
43115 18040 22195 28301
27483 26543 26471 27272
PROMEDIO DEMANDA EN EL TIEMPO 26942

Norma Ft Error Error Absoluto Error^2 % Error

0.790
1.184
0.423
1.108
1.442
0.807
1.382
1.019
0.848
1.348
0.621
1.028
0.76 21219 2182 2182 4760142 11.5%
1.22 34541 -5214 5214 27186055 13.1%
0.43 10649 -1669 1669 2786756 13.6%
1.10 28333 -1903 1903 3621403 6.3%
1.22 30862 15184 15184 230553647 96.8%
0.69 11426 3027 3027 9161535 36.0%
1.50 31203 -15831 15831 250613768 33.7%
0.99 21621 -776 776 602376 3.5%
0.84 15756 -3842 3842 14760500 19.6%
1.44 40719 -5756 5756 33127229 12.4%
0.70 19001 -6756 6756 45641620 26.2%
1.12 42303 -812 812 658567 1.9%
0.92 37434 -2593 2593 6721343 6.5%
1.22 65447 29931 29931 895845378 84.3%
0.40 16022 8130 8130 66092492 103.0%
1.04 33109 12814 12814 164195162 63.1%
1.38 61552 6305 6305 39747062 11.4%
0.63 22965 11690 11690 136645590 103.7%
1.56 76065 24764 24764 613249383 48.3%
0.86 30715 19440 19440 377910389 172.4%
0.83 17331 -2964 2964 8786444 14.6%
1.39 30827 -179 179 32055 0.6%
0.70 5374 -10975 10975 120453535 67.1%
1.06 -3209 -21249 21249 451503185 117.8%
0.82 -14593 -28771 28771 827793435 202.9%
1.11 -26310 -45062 45062 2030594447 240.3%
0.39 -15550 -22410 22410 502220819 326.7%
1.18 -24720 -55821 55821 3115954360 179.5%
1.54 13670 -32067 32067 1028278947 70.1%
0.82 15786 -16687 16687 278448951 51.4%
1.54 80860 38325 38325 1468804371 90.1%
1.00 68048 23227 23227 539475566 51.8%
0.74 51618 35610 35610 1268055764 222.5%
1.25 89469 60197 60197 3623728437 205.7%
0.63 29504 15783 15783 249102168 115.0%
0.97 35948 13753 13753 189143487 62.0%
0.72 5928 -4037 4037 16297178 40.5%
1.15 19371 -12119 12119 146866712 38.5%
0.48 2281 -16055 16055 257777418 87.6%
1.25 32627 -4842 4842 23443583 12.9%
1.52 77235 38171 38171 1457045330 97.7%
0.92 52990 16717 16717 279441954 46.1%
1.22 37103 30725 30725 944044086 481.8%
1.05 34750 2064 2064 4258838 6.3%
0.87 38008 1336 1336 1785421 3.6%
1.26 88799 49337 49337 2434146603 125.0%
0.57 20622 9461 9461 89507578 84.8%
0.98 30759 2457 2457 6038766 8.7%
22841
36524
15376
40128
48566
29686
39262
33897
28212
40862
18510
31701

ME 3172
MAD 16438
MSE 505977288
MAPE 82%
 FACTORES ESTACIONALES

1 13 25 37
2 14 26 38
3 15 27 39
4 16 28 40
5 17 29 41
6 18 30 42
7 19 31 43
8 20 32 44
9 21 33 45
10 22 34 46
11 23 35 47
12 24 36 48
FACTORES ESTACIONALES PROMEDIO
1 0.750 1.529 0.526 0.359 0.791
2 1.563 1.353 0.693 1.131 1.185
3 0.483 0.300 0.253 0.657 0.423
4 1.182 0.769 1.144 1.339 1.109
5 0.611 2.089 1.679 1.393 1.443
6 0.327 0.425 1.189 1.290 0.808
7 1.825 1.930 1.554 0.226 1.384
8 0.867 0.423 1.633 1.157 1.020
9 0.756 0.760 0.582 1.295 0.848
10 1.789 1.158 1.061 1.391 1.350
11 0.989 0.609 0.496 0.392 0.622
12 1.651 0.670 0.801 0.993 1.029
12.012

Chart Title
140000

120000

100000

80000

60000

40000

20000

0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47
-20000

Column E Column J
Demanda estacionaria aleatoria
Promedio movil
Suavización exponencial simple
α= Mayor que 0 menor que 1
NORMALIZA
0.790
1.184
0.423
1.108
1.442
0.807
1.382
1.019
0.848
1.348
0.621
1.028
12.000
naria aleatoria
encial simple
or que 0 menor que 1
 PARAMETROS
α 0.15 Parámetro de suavización de nivel
β 0.25 Parámetro de suavización de tendencia
ϒ 0.25 Parámetro de suavización de índice estacional
N 12 Longitud de la estación

T0 235
S0 16569.51177

Cerdo

Proporción por
Mes t St Gt
demanda
-11
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
 -3
-2
-1
0 16570 235
Jan-15 1 5851 15161 -176
Feb-15 2 4269 13377 -578
Mar-15 3 10428 12444 -667
Apr-15 4 13754 12073 -593
2015

May-15 5 5585 10596 -814

Jun-15 6 7078 9376 -915
Jul-15 7 7078 8253 -967
Aug-15 8 13498 8217 -734
Sep-15 9 13002 8311 -527
Oct-15 10 9446 8032 -465
Nov-15 11 13242 8418 -252
Dec-15 12 8877 8272 -226
Jan-16 13 3199 7319 -408
Feb-16 14 6113 6792 -438
Mar-16 15 13272 7392 -178
Apr-16 16 14954 8375 112
2016

May-16 17 5395 8023 -4

Jun-16 18 16727 9325 323
Jul-16 19 14339 10351 498
Aug-16 20 9065 10582 432
Sep-16 21 8788 10679 348
Oct-16 22 9065 10733 274
Nov-16 23 16504 11832 481
Dec-16 24 7391 11574 296
Jan-17 25 19445 13006 580
Feb-17 26 3880 12130 216
Mar-17 27 10268 12034 138
Apr-17 28 20541 13427 452
2017

May-17 29 9331 13197 281

Jun-17 30 10058 12965 153
Jul-17 31 3688 11703 -201
Aug-17 32 6216 10709 -399
Sep-17 33 6237 9699 -552
Oct-17 34 18729 10584 -193
Nov-17 35 16062 11242 20
Dec-17 36 5517 10400 -195
Jan-18 37 3464 9194 -448
Feb-18 38 20222 10467 -18
Mar-18 39 8134 10101 -105
Apr-18 40 22221 11830 354
2018

May-18 41 7237 11442 168

Jun-18 42 21923 13156 555
2018
Jul-18 43 11561 13389 474
Aug-18 44 11356 13487 380
Sep-18 45 19683 14739 598
Oct-18 46 11356 14740 449
Nov-18 47 10108 14427 258
Dec-18 48 16495 14956 326
Jan-19 49
Feb-19 50
Mar-19 51
Apr-19 52
2019

May-19 53
Jun-19 54
PRONÓSTICO
Jul-19 55
Aug-19 56
Sep-19 57
Oct-19 58
Nov-19 59
Dec-19 60

AÑO MES PRONÓSTICO

Jan-19 0.0594
Feb-19 0.0608
Mar-19 0.0791
Apr-19 0.1311
2019

May-19 0.0508
Jun-19 0.1008
Jul-19 0.0677
Aug-19 0.0755
Sep-19 0.0877
Oct-19 0.0897
Nov-19 0.1049
Dec-19 0.0698
 RES
AÑO 2015 AÑO 2016 AÑO 2017 AÑO 2018
Enero 5851 3199 19445 3464
Febrero 4269 6113 3880 20222
Marzo 10428 13272 10268 8134
Abril 13754 14954 20541 22221
Mayo 5585 5395 9331 7237
Junio 7078 16727 10058 21923
Julio 7078 14339 3688 11561
Agosto 13498 9065 6216 11356
Septiembre 13002 8788 6237 19683
Octubre 9446 9065 18729 11356
Noviembre 13242 16504 16062 10108
Diciembre 8877 7391 5517 16495
PROMEDIO 9342 10401 10831 13647
PROMEDIO DEMANDA EN EL TIEMPO 11055

Ct Norma Ft Error Error Absoluto Error^2

0.82 0.82
0.76 0.76
1.11 1.11
1.69 1.69
0.64 0.64
1.21 1.21
0.84 0.84
0.95 0.95
1.03 1.03
1.00 1.00
1.20 1.20
0.79 0.75
0.71 0.71 12214 6363 6363 40487520
0.65 0.65 9339 5069 5069 25697709
1.04 1.05 11632 1205 1205 1451046
1.55 1.56 16372 2617 2617 6850264
0.61 0.61 4187 -1398 1398 1953058
1.09 1.10 4683 -2395 2395 5736073
0.84 0.85 1245 -5833 5833 34027829
1.12 1.13 2227 -11271 11271 127032024
1.16 1.17 3670 -9332 9332 87078526
1.05 1.05 3390 -6056 6056 36674893
1.29 1.29 6747 -6495 6495 42185720
0.83 0.84 4188 -4689 4689 21987075
0.64 0.62 1435 -1764 1764 3112993
0.72 0.70 437 -5677 5677 32225029
1.24 1.20 4947 -8325 8325 69308272
1.61 1.57 15814 859 859 738627
0.63 0.61 4892 -502 502 252482
1.27 1.24 16593 -134 134 18020
0.98 0.96 16788 2449 2449 5999803
1.06 1.03 21656 12591 12591 158525346
1.08 1.05 20995 12207 12207 149003260
1.00 0.97 17596 8531 8531 72772385
1.32 1.28 29615 13110 13110 171879111
0.79 0.77 15604 8214 8214 67465293
0.84 0.86 17177 -2268 2268 5145358
0.60 0.62 12367 8487 8487 72032219
1.11 1.14 18940 8672 8672 75204322
1.56 1.59 40927 20386 20386 415588415
0.64 0.65 13075 3743 3743 14012434
1.12 1.15 21706 11648 11648 135681424
0.80 0.81 5234 1546 1546 2391131
0.92 0.94 -2123 -8339 8339 69539284
0.95 0.97 -8953 -15190 15190 230728177
1.17 1.20 3922 -14806 14806 219229880
1.32 1.35 15334 -728 728 529769
0.71 0.72 2574 -2942 2942 8657867
0.74 0.73 -6364 -9828 9828 96595774
0.95 0.93 6030 -14192 14192 201412472
1.06 1.04 6855 -1278 1278 1634425
1.67 1.63 41416 19195 19195 368441334
0.65 0.63 11922 4685 4685 21944774
1.28 1.25 41801 19878 19878 395144852
 0.83 0.81 27458 15896 15896 252697099
0.91 0.90 28368 17012 17012 289401136
1.06 1.04 40451 20768 20768 431320069
1.09 1.07 42360 31003 31003 961191540
1.19 1.17 35855 25746 25746 662865638
0.82 0.80 22110 5615 5615 31526724
22468
29000
32741
52170
20437
40802
STICO
26653
29825
34970
36249
39854
27698

ME 3209
MAD 8769.589
MSE 127612052
MAPE 87.9%
 FACTORES ESTACIONALES
AÑO 2019
1 13 25 37
2 14 26 38
3 15 27 39
4 16 28 40
5 17 29 41
6 18 30 42
7 19 31 43
8 20 32 44
9 21 33 45
10 22 34 46
11 23 35 47
12 24 36 48
FACTORES ESTACIONALES
1 1.056 0.383 1.740 0.248
2 0.739 0.712 0.340 1.422
3 1.735 1.504 0.882 0.563
4 2.202 1.650 1.730 1.512
5 0.862 0.580 0.770 0.485
6 1.054 1.755 0.815 1.446
7 1.019 1.468 0.293 0.751
8 1.879 0.907 0.485 0.727
9 1.753 0.859 0.478 1.241
10 1.234 0.866 1.410 0.705
11 1.679 1.542 1.188 0.619
12 1.093 0.676 0.401 0.995

Chart Title
70000
% Error 60000

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47
-10000

Column E Column J
 20000

10000

0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47
-10000

Column E Column J

108.8%
118.7%
11.6%
19.0%
25.0%
33.8%
82.4%
83.5%
71.8%
64.1%
49.1%
52.8%
55.1%
92.9%
62.7%
5.7%
9.3%
0.8%
17.1%
138.9%
138.9%
94.1%
79.4%
111.1%
11.7%
218.8%
84.5%
99.2%
40.1%
115.8%
41.9%
134.2%
243.5%
79.1%
4.5%
53.3%
283.7%
70.2%
15.7%
86.4%
64.7% Demanda estacionaria aleatoria
90.7% Promedio movil
137.5% Suavización exponencial simple
149.8% α=
105.5%
273.0%
254.7%
34.0%
 PROMEDIO NORMALIZA
0.857 0.815
0.803 0.764
1.171 1.114
1.774 1.688
0.674 0.642
1.267 1.206
0.883 0.840
0.999 0.951
1.082 1.030
1.054 1.003
1.257 1.196
0.791 0.753
12.613 12.000

3 35 37 39 41 43 45 47
3 35 37 39 41 43 45 47

Demanda estacionaria aleatoria

Promedio movil
uavización exponencial simple
Mayor que 0 menor que 1
 PARAMETROS
α 0.15 Parámetro de suavización de nivel
β 0.25 Parámetro de suavización de tendencia
ϒ 0.25 Parámetro de suavización de índice estacional
N 12 Longitud de la estación

T0 7517
S0 243163.6099

Pollo

Proporción por
Mes t St Gt
demanda
-11
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
 -3
-2
-1
0 243164 7517
Jan-15 1 17310 215675 -1235
Feb-15 2 23080 185736 -8411
Mar-15 3 30004 155228 -13935
Apr-15 4 34621 125291 -17936
2015

May-15 5 40391 97310 -20447

Jun-15 6 43853 71911 -21685
Jul-15 7 46161 49616 -21837
Aug-15 8 49623 31055 -21018
Sep-15 9 48469 15802 -19577
Oct-15 10 54239 4927 -17402
Nov-15 11 57701 -1949 -14770
Dec-15 12 53085 -6248 -12152
Jan-16 13 36891 -10107 -10079
Feb-16 14 39965 -11163 -7823
Mar-16 15 43808 -9565 -5468
Apr-16 16 44576 -6095 -3234
2016

May-16 17 42271 -1590 -1299

Jun-16 18 44576 4230 481
Jul-16 19 46113 10921 2033
Aug-16 20 39196 16890 3017
Sep-16 21 41502 23146 3827
Oct-16 22 44192 29555 4472
Nov-16 23 46113 35843 4926
Dec-16 24 48419 41918 5214
Jan-17 25 39871 46043 4941
Feb-17 26 42443 49705 4622
Mar-17 27 41157 52356 4129
Apr-17 28 43730 54563 3648
2017

May-17 29 45016 56233 3154

Jun-17 30 45659 57324 2638
Jul-17 31 46945 58008 2149
Aug-17 32 46302 58077 1630
Sep-17 33 48874 58080 1223
Oct-17 34 49517 57831 855
Nov-17 35 49517 57320 513
Dec-17 36 48231 56395 154
Jan-18 37 40226 54101 -458
Feb-18 38 41257 51786 -922
Mar-18 39 45383 50046 -1127
Apr-18 40 46414 48536 -1223
2018

May-18 41 47446 47334 -1217

Jun-18 42 46414 46159 -1207
2018
Jul-18 43 48477 45479 -1075
Aug-18 44 48477 45014 -923
Sep-18 45 49509 44902 -720
Oct-18 46 51056 45210 -463
Nov-18 47 51571 45778 -205
Dec-18 48 54150 46861 117
Jan-19 49
Feb-19 50
Mar-19 51
Apr-19 52
2019

May-19 53
Jun-19 54
PRONÓSTICO
Jul-19 55
Aug-19 56
Sep-19 57
Oct-19 58
Nov-19 59
Dec-19 60

AÑO MES PRONÓSTICO

Jan-19 184984
Feb-19 203704
Mar-19 224506
Apr-19 239273
2019

May-19 249467
Jun-19 257044
Jul-19 267191
Aug-19 261926
Sep-19 268076
Oct-19 279329
Nov-19 283410
Dec-19 280986
 RES
AÑO 2015 AÑO 2016 AÑO 2017 AÑO 2018
Enero 17310 36891 39871 114931
Febrero 23080 39965 42443 117878
Marzo 30004 43808 41157 129665
Abril 34621 44576 43730 132612
Mayo 40391 42271 45016 135559
Junio 43853 44576 45659 132612
Julio 46161 46113 46945 138506
Agosto 49623 39196 46302 138506
Septiembre 48469 41502 48874 141453
Octubre 54239 44192 49517 145874
Noviembre 57701 46113 49517 147347
Diciembre 53085 48419 48231 154714
PROMEDIO 41545 43135 45605 135805
PROMEDIO DEMANDA EN EL TIEMPO 66523

Ct Norma Ft Error Error Absoluto Error^2

-0.440 -0.440
-1.332 -1.332
-4.882 -4.882
10.744 10.744
2.919 2.919
1.824 1.824
1.333 1.333
0.825 0.825
 0.653 0.653
0.392 0.392
0.091 0.091
-0.053 -0.128
-0.31 -0.90 -94247 -111557 111557 12444992671
-0.97 -2.83 -225050 -248130 248130 61568439551
-3.61 -10.56 -553678 -583683 583683 340685495538
8.13 23.76 575343 540723 540723 292381035835
2.29 6.70 -14377 -54768 54768 2999524468
1.52 4.44 -106144 -149997 149997 22499126407
1.23 3.60 -137669 -183830 183830 33793370323
1.02 2.98 -113112 -162735 162735 26482602835
1.26 3.67 -104735 -153203 153203 23471253897
3.05 8.90 -66264 -120503 120503 14521047211
-7.34 -21.44 -14890 -72591 72591 5269492945
-2.16 -6.32 19513 -33572 33572 1127080638
-1.59 -5.83 127707 90816 90816 8247553846
-3.02 -11.06 341551 301586 301586 90953896852
-9.07 -33.22 967193 923385 923385 852639925945
15.99 58.59 -1373920 -1418496 1418496 2012131523571
-1.62 -5.93 -158676 -200947 200947 40379588853
5.97 21.87 57272 12695 12695 161174773
3.76 13.77 178554 132441 132441 17540580130
2.81 10.31 229899 190702 190702 36367340960
3.20 11.74 380209 338707 338707 114722267644
7.05 25.84 1139277 1095085 1095085 1199210685325
-15.76 -57.74 -3197984 -3244098 3244098 10524169825830
-4.45 -16.32 -1056529 -1104948 1104948 1220909263668
-4.16 -4.34 -988702 -1028573 1028573 1057962873346
-8.08 -8.44 -1878183 -1920627 1920627 3688807075102
-24.72 -25.83 -5442148 -5483305 5483305 30066631469667
44.14 46.13 9181680 9137951 9137951 83502146591645
-4.25 -4.44 -876096 -921111 921111 848446049609
16.60 17.35 2983921 2938263 2938263 8633387663425
10.53 11.00 1716267 1669322 1669322 2786637159811
7.93 8.29 1135899 1089597 1089597 1187221157083
9.01 9.42 1155259 1106384 1106384 1224086536341
19.59 20.48 2245412 2195895 2195895 4821954095159
-43.09 -45.04 -4347148 -4396666 4396666 19330669800393
-12.03 -12.57 -1010928 -1059159 1059159 1121818369220
-3.07 -3.07 -161367 -201593 201593 40639554188
-6.13 -6.12 -141335 -182592 182592 33339841016
-19.15 -19.12 -157500 -202883 202883 41161627910
34.84 34.79 -16836 -63250 63250 4000596074
-3.08 -3.08 11455 -35991 35991 1295349614
13.26 13.24 -78600 -125014 125014 15628476368
 8.52 8.51 -8263 -56741 56741 3219493787
6.48 6.47 36590 -11887 11887 141294397
7.34 7.33 117817 68308 68308 4665989106
15.64 15.62 489777 438722 438722 192476587379
-33.50 -33.45 -1627116 -1678688 1678688 2817991773630
-9.14 -9.13 -659612 -713762 713762 509456206351
-161313
-322801
-1009887
1841604
-163161
704120
PRONÓSTICO
453358
345774
392290
837736
-1797985
-491668

ME -76132
MAD 1004072
MSE 3726842973340
MAPE 2258.5%
 FACTORES ESTACIONALES
AÑO 2019
40225.7601265823 1 13 25 37
41257.1898734177 2 14 26 38
45382.9088607595 3 15 27 39
46414.3386075949 4 16 28 40
47445.7683544304 5 17 29 41
46414.3386075949 6 18 30 42
48477.1981012658 7 19 31 43
48477.1981012658 8 20 32 44
49508.6278481013 9 21 33 45
51055.7724683544 10 22 34 46
51571.4873417721 11 23 35 47
54150.0617088608 12 24 36 48
FACTORES ESTACIONALES
1 -0.157 -1.852 0.567 0.716
2 -0.225 -3.222 0.546 0.702
3 -0.316 -8.967 0.482 0.739
4 -0.395 16.942 0.471 0.725
5 -0.505 4.166 0.449 0.711
6 -0.605 2.524 0.423 0.670
7 -0.710 1.831 0.407 0.674
8 -0.863 1.199 0.377 0.650
9 -0.970 1.032 0.375 0.641
10 -1.277 0.926 0.359 0.639
11 -1.651 0.835 0.340 0.625
12 -1.935 0.771 0.315 0.636

Chart Title
12000000

% Error 10000000
8000000
6000000
4000000
2000000
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47
-2000000
-4000000
-6000000
-8000000

Column E Column J
 0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47
-2000000
-4000000
-6000000
-8000000

Column E Column J

644.5%
1075.1%
1945.3%
1561.9%
135.6%
342.0%
398.2%
327.9%
316.1%
222.2%
125.8%
63.2%
246.2%
754.6%
2107.8%
3182.2%
475.4%
28.5%
287.2%
486.5%
816.1%
2478.0%
7035.0%
2282.0%
2579.7%
4525.1%
13322.8%
20896.5%
2046.2%
6435.3%
3555.9%
2353.2%
2263.7%
4434.6%
8879.1%
2196.0%
501.2%
442.6%
447.0%
136.3%
75.9% Demanda estacionaria aleatoria
269.3% Promedio movil
117.0% Suavización exponencial simple
24.5% α=
138.0%
859.3%
3255.1%
1318.1%
 PROMEDIO NORMALIZA
-0.181 -0.440
-0.550 -1.332
-2.015 -4.882
4.436 10.744
1.205 2.919
0.753 1.824
0.550 1.333
0.341 0.825
0.270 0.653
0.162 0.392
0.037 0.091
-0.053 -0.128
4.954 12.000

31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47

J
 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47

Demanda estacionaria aleatoria

Promedio movil
uavización exponencial simple
Mayor que 0 menor que 1