2019 International Conference on Computer, Control, Electrical, and Electronics Engineering (ICCCEEE)
Malaria transmission model with standard incidence
rate applied to DRC
1st Mojeeb AL-Rahman EL-Nor Osman 2nd MOHAMMED SALAHELDEEN 3rd Asmaa Amer
School of Mathematics and Statistics ABDELGADER ABAS School of Mathematics and Statistics
Central China Normal University Dept Mathematics and Computer Science
Wuhan, 430079, PRC University of Gezira
email address Wad Medani, Sudan
Dept of Mathematics and Computer Science mohad23081@uofg.edu.sd
International University of Africa
Khartoum, Sudan.
Bayan College for Science & Technology
P.O.Box: 210 Khartoum, Sudan.
mojeeb osman@yahoo.com
Abstract—Malaria is endemic in Democratic Republic of the
Congo (DRC) and it is one of the most severe diseases in
the country. In this paper, we develop and analyze malaria
transmission model with saturated incidence rate. The basic
reproduction number,R0 , was calculated by the next generation
technique. The model has a malaria-free equilibrium (MFE)
which is locally asymptomatically stable when R0 < 1. After
that, we simulated the malaria data of Democratic Republic
of the Congo that was reported by World Health Organization
and predict the future direction of the disease. Our simulation
results show that the malaria is endemic disease in the country.
Moreover, we perform sensitivity analysis of R0 . According to our
simulation and sensitive analysis results, we give some suggestions
to reduce and control the disease in DRC.
Index Terms—Mathematical model,Stability analysis, Saturat-
ed incidence,Sensitivity analysis.
I. I NTRODUCTION
Malaria is a life-threatening disease caused by parasites that
are transmitted to people through the bites of infected female
Anopheles mosquitoes. It is a preventable and curable disease
[1]. The World Health Organization (WHO) 2018 report,
estimate that 219 million malaria cases occurred globally,
compared with 239 million in 2010 and 217 million reported
cases in 2016. Most malaria cases reported in 2017 were in
Africa (92%), followed by South-East Asia Region (5%) and
the Eastern Mediterranean Region(2%). Five countries account
nearly half of all malaria reported cases worldwide namely:
Nigeria (25%), Democratic Republic of the Congo(11%),
Mozambique(5%), India(4%) and Uganda(4%). The incidence
rate of malaria declined worldwide between 2010 and 2017,
from 72 to 59 cases per 1000 population at risk [2]. The
infected mosquito carry a parasite called Plasmodium [3].
There are four common species of plasmodium that cause
978-1-7281-1006-6/19/$31.00 ©2019 IEEE
Notice
Central China Normal University.
Wuhan, 430079, PRC
asmaaamer.85@yahoo.com
malaria in human. Plasmodium falciparum is the most deadly
and accounts for 80 percent of malaria cases and approxi-
mately 90 percent of death [4], [5]. The use of mathematical
modeling has played an important role in understanding the
disease transmission. It can also be used to project how
disease progress and help to inform public health [6]. Many
studies has been conducted on the mathematical modeling of
malaria transmission, since Ronald Ross introduced the first
model [7]. B.Edoardo, et al [8] analyzed malaria transmission
model with asymptomatic carriers in two groups. Their results
show that the key parameters that can be identified such as
threshold level. X.Feng et al [9] considered a deterministic
malaria model with standard incidence rate and treatment.
Their stability analysis shows that when R0 < 1, two endemic
equilibria may exists and the backward bifurcation is possible
for the malaria to persist even if R0 < 1. L.Cai, et al [10]
formulated malaria model with an asymptomatic compartment
in human and exposed compartments in both host and vector.
They investigated the stability analysis of their model and their
numerical simulation results suggest that the total spread of
the disease is high if all individuals show symptoms upon
infection. Osman, et al [11] formulated a model of malaria that
applied to Democratic Republic of the Congo with two optimal
control. According to their simulation the number of infected
individuals always decreases under the use of two control
strategies: use of treated bet net and treatment with drugs
together. Osman et al [12] performed the sensitivity analysis
on malaria transmission model with saturated incidence rate.
According to their simulation result, reducing the mosquitoes
biting rate will reduce the number of exposed human and
the infected humans. In this paper, we formulated a malaria
transmission model which is different from [12] and all
of the above mentioned models. The human population is
divided into five compartments Sh , Eh , Ih , Th and Rh and
the mosquitoes population into three compartments Sv , Ev
and Iv with the non-linear incidence rate. Furthermore, we III. M ODEL A NALYSIS
added mosquito extrinsic incubation rate into the mosquito
Progression rate. The rest of this article is structured as fol- A. Positivity and boundedness of the solutions
lows. In Section 2, an SEITR-SEI malaria model is developed. Model 1 characterizes the interaction between human and
Section 3, describes the model analysis including: positivity mosquito population. All the model variables and parameters
and boundendness of the solution, basic reproduction number, are assumed to be non-negative with respect to time t > 0.
existence of equilibria. The numerical simulation of the model The model 1 will be considered in the epidemiologically and
is discussed in Section 4. The sensitivity analysis of the basic mathematically-feasible region Γ = Γh ×Γv ⊂ R5+ ×R3+ with
reproduction number is performed in Section 5. Finally, a brief the following
conclusion is given in Section 6. Λh
Γh = {Sh , Eh , Ih , Th , Rh ∈ R5+ : Nh ≤ µ }, (2)
II. M ATHEMATICAL M ODEL and
Λv
A. Model description Γv = {Sv , Ev , Iv ∈ R3+ : Nv ≤ η }, (3)

The formulation of the malaria model requires the interac- obviously, the region Γ is a positively invariant set and global
tion between human and mosquito populations. The total popu- attractive of the model 1. This means that any trajectory
lation size of human at continuous time t, denoted by Nh (t), is indicated any where in the non-negative region R8+ of the
sub-divided into five compartments namely Susceptible Sh (t), phase space ultimately enters the feasible region Γ and remains
Exposed Eh (t), Infected Ih (t), Treated Th (t) and Recovered in Γ thereafter.
human Rh (t). So that Nh (t) = Sh (t)+Eh (t)+Ih (t)+Th (t)+ Lemma 3.1: The region
Rh (t). Similarly, the mosquitoes population size Nv is also Γ = {Sh , Eh , Ih , Th , Rh , Sv , Ev , Iv ∈ R8+ : Nh ≤ Λµh , Nv ≤
Λv
sub-divided into three compartments. They are Susceptible η }, is positively-invariant for the malaria model 1.
Sv (t), Exposed Ev (t) and Infected mosquitoes Iv (t). Thus, Proof: The change rate of human and mosquito total
Nv (t) = Sv (t) + Ev (t) + Iv (t). We assume that susceptible populations are given respectively as
human population increases by birth or immigration at the rate dNh
Λh , human can die at any stage by natural causes at rate, µ dt = Λh − µNh − δh Ih , (4)
and infected human can die from the disease at rate, δh . The and
infected humans after treatment move from infected to the dNv
dt = Λv − ηNv − δv Iv , (5)
treated class for treatment at rate, τ . Also, the saturated non-
linear incidence function has been used, which is combination where Nh = Sh + Eh + Ih + Th + Rh and Nv = Sv + Ev + Iv .
between the production of antibodies that response to the Since dNdt
h (t)
≤ Λh − µNh and dNdt v (t)
≤ Λv − µNv .
parasites causing malaria in both human and mosquito popu- It follows that, whenever Nh (t) > Λµh and Nv (t) > Ληv , then
dNh (t)
lations vh , vv respectively. The infectious mosquitoes remain dt < 0 and dNdt
v (t)
< 0, respectively.
infectious until death. All the model parameters are described Thus, using equations 4 and 5 applying the standard
in Table I. The transmission dynamics of Malaria is given by comparison theorem [13]. We can obtain the following
the following equations: Λh Λh
 dS Nh (t) ≤ Nh (0)e−µt + µ (1 − e−µt ) if Nh (0) ≤ µ ,
h bβhv Iv Sh (6)
 = Λh + ρRh − − µSh ,
dt 1 + vh I v


 and
 dEh bβhv Iv Sh


 = − (µ + σh )Eh , Nv (t) ≤ Nv (0)e−ηt + Λv
− e−ηt ) if Nv (0) ≤ Λv
η (1 η ,

 dt

 1 + vh I v

 dIh (7)
= σh Eh − (τ + µ + δh )Ih ,


 dt Thus, under the flow that has been described by our model Γ


 dTh = τ Ih − (γ + µ)Th ,

is positively invariant. So, no solution path leaves through any



dt (1) boundary of Γ. Hence, in the domain Γ, model 1 is mathe-
dRh matically and epidemiologically well-posed. Consequently, it

 = γT h − (µ + ρ)R h ,
dt

is sufficient to consider the dynamics of the system in Γ.


dSv bβvh Ih Sv


= Λv − − ηSv ,




 dt 1 + vv I h


 dE v bβ I S
vh h v
B. Reproduction number and existence of equilibria

 = − (η + θ + σv )Ev ,
dt 1 + vv I h


 The Malaria-free equilibrium (MFE) is a point at which the
 dIv = (θ + σv )Ev − (η + δv )Iv ,


 total population of humans and mosquitoes are free of the
dt disease. The MFE of the model 1 is denoted by M0 and it is
With the initial conditions: Sh (0) > 0,Eh (0) ≥ 0,Ih (0) ≥ given by M0 = (Sh0 , Eh0 , Ih0 , Th0 , Rh0 , Sv0 , Ev0 , Iv0 )
Λ
0,Th (0) ≥ 0, = (Sh0 , 0, 0, 0, 0, Sv0 , 0, 0) = ( µp , 0, 0, 0, 0, Ληv , 0, 0).
Rh (0) ≥ 0,Sv (0) > 0,Ev (0) ≥ 0, Iv (0) ≥ 0. Let F and V be the nonnegative matrix of the new infection
terms and the remaining transition terms respectively.
 J(M0 ) =
 bβhv Iv     
1+vh Iv (µ + σh )Eh −µ 0 0 0 0 0 0 −C2

 0 


 −σh Eh + (τ + µ + σh )Ih 

 0 −k1
 0 0 0 0 0 C2 

F =
 0 ,
 V=
 −τ Ih + (γ + µ)Th 

 0
 σh −k2 0 0 0 0 0 

 0   (η + θ + σv )EV   0 0 τ −k3 0 0 0 0 
,
bβvh Ih

1+vv Ih
−(θ + σv )Ev + (η + δv )Iv  0
 0 0 γ −k6 0 0 0 

 0
 0 −C1 0 0 −η 0 0 

 0 0 C1 0 0 0 −k4 0 
0 0 0 0 0 0 k −k5
differentiate F and V partially with respect to Eh , Ih , Th ,
Ev and Iv at M0 to obtain f and v respectively as where C1 = bβvh Sv∗ , C2 = bβhv Sh∗ , (µ + ρ),
obviously, λ1 = −µ, λ2 = −η, λ3 = −(µ+ρ),λ4 = −(γ +µ)
0 0 bβhv Sh∗ ,
 
0 0 , λ5 = −(η + θ + σv ),
 0 0 0 0 0 λ6 = −(τ + µ + δh ) are negative eigenvalues and the other

 
f = 0
 0 0 0 0 ,
eigenvalues can be determined by the characteristic equation
 0 bβvh Sv∗ 0 0

0 
0 0 0 0 0
 
k1 0 0 0 0 f (λ) = a0 λ2 + a1 λ + a2 = 0, (9)
 −σh k2 0 0 0 
 
−τ k3 0 0  where
v=  0 , a0 = 1,
 0 0 0 k4 0 
a 1 = µ + σh + η + δ v ,
0 0 0 k k5
a2 = (µ + σh )(η + δv ),
and
1
Clearly, a0 , a1 , a2 and a1 a2 are positive, then applying the
0 0 0 0
 
k1 Routh-Hurwitz Criterion [14]. It can be seen that all the roots
σh 1
 k1 k2 k2 0 0 0  of equation 9 have negative real parts if and only if the
−1 τ σh τ 1
 
v =
 k1 k2 k3 k2 k3 k3 0 0 ,
 coefficients
1
 0 0 0 k4 0 
k 1 a0 , a1 , a2 > 0 and a1 a2 > 0, (10)
0 0 0 k4 k5 k5

Thus, the reproduction number R0 , is defined as the spectral for the characteristic equation 9 then we obtain the following
radius of f v −1 , theorem.

Theorem 3.2: M0 is locally asymptotically stable if and

only if the inequalities 10 are satisfied.
 ∗ ∗ 
bβhv kSh bβhv kSh
0 0 0 k4 k5 k5
0 0 0 0 0
 
 
fv −1
=

0 0 0 0 0 ,
 2) Existence of endemic equilibrium: In this section, we
 bβvh σh Sv∗ bβvh σh Sv∗  consider the situation in which there is persistence of malaria
 k1 k2 k2 0 0 0 
in the population. The endemic equilibrium of model 1 is de-
0 0 0 0 0
noted by M ∗ = (Sh∗ , Eh∗ , Ih∗ , Th∗ , Rh∗ , Sv∗ , Ev∗ , Iv∗ ) then model 1
can be written in terms of equilibrium points as

∗ bβhv Iv∗ Sh∗
where k = (θ + σv ), k1 = (µ + σh ), k2 = (τ + µ + δh ),
 Λ h + ρR h − − µSh∗ = 0,
1 + vh Iv∗



k3 = (γ + µ), k4 = (η + θ + δv ) and k5 = (η + δv ).  bβhv Iv∗ Sh∗


Then R0 is given by,

 − (µ + σh )Eh∗ = 0,
1 + vh I v



 σh Eh∗ − (τ + µ + δh )Ih∗ = 0,
q 

b2 βhv βvh Λh Λv σh (θ+σv )
R0 = µη(µ+σ , (8)


h )(τ +δh +µ)(η+θ+σv )(η+δv )
 τ Ih∗ − (γ + µ)Th∗ = 0,



γTh∗ − (µ + ρ)Rh∗ = 0, (11)


bβvh Ih∗ Sv∗


− ηSv∗ = 0,

1) Stability of the Malaria-free equilibrium: In this section, 
 Λ v −
1 + vv Ih∗


the jacobian matrix has been evaluated to investigate the 
 bβvh Ih∗ Sv∗


stability analysis of MFE, M0 = ( Λµh , 0, 0, 0, 0, Ληv , 0, 0) to  1 + vv I ∗ − (η + θ + σv )Ev = 0,


 ∗

obtained  h
 (θ + σv )E ∗ − (η + δv )I ∗ = 0,


v v
after simple calculation, we obtained the following endemic supports of global health organizations.
points 5) Increasing the human antibodies can reduce the number
Λh k3 k4 +ργτ Ih ∗
bλ∗ (Λ k k4 +ργτ Ih ∗
) of infected people.
Sh∗ = k3 k4 (bλ∗ , Eh∗ = hk1 kh3 k43(bλ ∗ +µ) ,
h +µ) h
∗
bSh σh λ∗ τ I ∗
γτ I ∗
TABLE I: Description and values of parameters of the model 1.
Ih∗ = ∗ ∗
k1 k2 , Th = k3 , ∗Rh = k3 k4 ,
h h h (12)
Λv bΛv λv (θ+σv )bΛv λ∗
Sv∗ = bλ∗ +η
∗ ∗
, Ev = k5 (bλ∗ +η) , Iv = k5 k6 (bλ ∗ +η) ,
v
v v v
Parameter Parameter Description Values Source
IV. N UMERICAL SIMULATIONS APPLIED TO DRC Progression rate from
σh Eh (t) −→ Ih (t)
0.08333 [14]
In this section, model 1 was used to simulate the confirmed
yearly malaria cases provided by WHO. Malaria reported cases Progression rate from
σv Ev (t) −→ Iv (t)
0.48 [14]
of Democratic Republic of the Congo 2000-2017 was collected
from WHO website which is presented in Table II. Clearly Disease induced
δh death rate of human
0.05 [15]
the number of infected people in the country are increasing
from 2007. We dropped the data from 2000 to 2006, because Disease induced
δv death rate of mosquito
0.01 [15]
several local conflicts occurred during that period of time,
which may have affected the process of data collection. For Transmission rate
βhv from human to mosquito
0.48 [16]
this reason we decide to use the data from 2007 to 2017 to
obtain better results. Based on the parameter values that are Transmission rate
βvh from mosquito to human
0.048 [16]
presented in Table I, we performed the numerical simulations
of our model and obtained sensible outcome between infected γ Recovery rate due to treatment 0.0035 [16]
human and malaria cases of DRC from 2007-2017. Fig 1(a) b Biting rate 0.38 [17]
shows the simulation of model 1 and reported malaria cases Mosquito natural
and Fig 1(b) presents the future prediction of the model until η death rate
0.1 [17]
2040. Furthermore, Figures 2(a),(b), 3(a),(b) and 4(a),(b) Λh Human recruitment rate 0.000250 Fitting
show the model 1 solution with parameter values from Table I
Λv Mosquito recruitment rate 0.0350 Fitting
for the human and mosquitoes respectively. Fig 5(a),(b) present
the influence of antibody vh that is produced by human on Mosquito extrinsic
θ incubation rate
0.0227 Fitting
exposed and infected human respectively. Fig 5 presents the
effects of antibody vv that is produced by mosquitoes on The ratio of antibody produced
by a human in response to
exposed mosquitoes in Fig 6(a) and infected mosquitoes in vh the incidence infection
0.241 Fitting
Fig 6(b). Also,Fig 7 display the effect of the mosquito bite caused by mosquito
rate on the number of infected humans that is reducing the The ratio of antibody produced
mosquitoes biting rate will reduce the number of infected vv
by a mosquito in response to
0.41 Fitting
individual. According to our model simulations and sensitivity the incidence of infection
caused by human
analysis, we made some suggestions to reduce, control and
eradicate the malaria from the country. µ Human natural death rate 0.0000474 Fitting
The DRC government should implement the following ρ human losing of immunity rate 0.00274 Fitting
suggestions with cooperation with local and world health Treatment rate of the
τ 0.009554 Fitting
organizations. infected individuals
1) Reducing the mosquitoes biting rate by the use of insect
repellent, insecticide treated bed nets, indoor residual
spraying. TABLE II: Number of malaria cases from WHO [18]
2) Increasing the treatment rate by educating the people
through the media, especially the women and pregnant country country
Congo, DR Congo, DR
women in the rural areas about the dangers of the disease Year Year
2000 897 2009 1,878,705
and how it can affect them and their children. This can 2001 1,531 2010 2,417,780
reduce the number of infected individual and increase 2002 1,735 2011 4,561,981
2003 2,438 2012 4,791,598
the number of recovered people. 2004 2,684 2013 6,715,223
3) The Government should spray all the malaria endemic 2005 2,971 2014 9,968,983
region in the country especially in autumn season, in 2006 2,050 2015 11,627,473
2007 74,0858 2016 15,330,841
order to reduce the mosquitoes population. 2008 1,618,218 2017 15,176,927
4) Controlling the mosquitoes can reduced the malaria,
for that reason the government should support various
monitoring and evaluation activities of the mosquito and
malaria control in the DRC by obtaining funds and
 (a)
(a)
×106
16
×107
3.5
Infectious human
14 Treated human
3
12

2.5
10

Number of human
I h (t)

8 2

6 1.5

4
1

2
0.5
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0
Year 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120 2140 2160 2180 2200
Year
(b)
(b)
×107
3.5
×107
4
Exposed human
3 Infectious human
3.5 Treated human
Recovered human
2.5
3

Number of human
2 2.5
I h (t)

1.5 2

1.5
1

1
0.5

0.5
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
0
Year 2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 3200 3400 3600 3800
Year

Fig. 1: Comparisons of malaria cases (red curve) and the solution of infected
human Ih (t) for model 1. (a): Simulation of the confirmed malaria cases by Fig. 3: Solution of model 1 with parameter values from Table I.
WHO in DRC from 2007 to 2017. (b): Prediction of infected human Ih (t)
for DRC 2007 to 2040.
(a)
(a)
×107
12
×107 Exposed mosquito
4
Exposed human Infectious mosquito
Infectious human
3.5 Treated human 10

3
Number of mosquito

8
Number of human

2.5
6
2

1.5 4

1
2

0.5
0
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2000 2500 3000 3500 Year
Year
(b)
(b)
×108
2
×107 Susceptible mosquito
4
Exposed human Exposed mosquito
1.8
Infectious human Infectious mosquito
3.5 Treated human
1.6
Recovered human

3 1.4
Number of mosquito
Number of human

1.2
2.5
1
2
0.8

1.5 0.6

1 0.4

0.2
0.5
0
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400 2450 2500 Year
Year

Fig. 4: Solution of model 1 with parameter values from Table I.

Fig. 2: Solution of model 1 with parameter values from Table I.
 (a) (a)
×107 ×108
2 2
v v=0.1
1.8 v v=0.2
1.8
v v=0.3
1.6
1.6 v v=0.4
1.4 v v=0.5
1.4 v v=0.6
1.2
1.2
I h (t)

1 v h=0.19

I v(t)
v h=0.20
0.8 1
v h=0.21

0.6 v h=0.22
0.8
v h=0.23
0.4 v h=0.24
0.6
v h=0.25
0.2
0.4
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0.2
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Year
(b)
(b)
×107
4
×107
18
v v=0.1
3.5
v v=0.2
16
3 v h=0.19 v v=0.3
v h=0.20 14 v v=0.4
2.5 v h=0.21 v v=0.5
v h=0.22 12 v v=0.6
E h (t)

2 v h=0.23
v h=0.24 10

E v(t)
1.5
8

1
6

0.5
4

0 2
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Year
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Year
Fig. 5: The influence of vh on the number of infected human Fig 6(a) and
Exposed human Fig 6(b) respectively.
Fig. 6: The influence of Vv on the number of infected mosquito Fig 6(a) and
Exposed mosquito Fig 6(b) respectively.

V. S ENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
×106
In order to determine how to reduce and control disease 18

transmission, it is useful to know the importance of several 16

factors that can influence the malaria transmission and spread. 14

As, the malaria spread is related to the basic reproduction 12

number R0 directly, we calculate the sensitivity indices of 10 b=0.35

I h (t)

b=0.36
R0 to the model parameters which shows the influence of 8 b=0.37
b=0.38
each parameter to the disease transmission and spread in the 6
b=0.39
b=0.40
specific area. 4
Definition: The normalized forward sensitivity index of the 2
variable,z, that compute differentially on a parameter,y, is
y 0
defined as: γyz = ∂zy · z,
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Year

Fig. 7: The influence of b on the number of infected human.

Thus, we evaluate the sensitivity indices(SI) at the baseline
parameter values. The SI of R0 to the model 1 for the DRC
are given in Table III. The parameters are presented in the
way that start from the most sensitive to the least sensitive one.
The most sensitive parameter is the mosquito biting rate,b and
the least sensitive one is σh . If we increase(or decrease) the
mosquito biting rate,b, by 10%, then the value of R0 will in-
crease(decrease) by 10%. Similarly, Increasing (or decreasing)
transmission rate from Ih → Sv (t),βhv ,transmission rate from
Iv → Sh (t),βvh , human recruitment rate, Λh and mosquito
recruitment rate,Λv , by 10% will increase(decrease) the R0
by 4.07% respectively. Furthermore, increases(or decreases) of
progression rate from Ev (t) → Iv (t),σv , mosquito extrinsic
rate, θ, and progression rate from Eh → Ih ,σh , by 10%
increases (or decreases) of R0 by 0.61, 0.03% and 0.01%
respectively. Moreover, increasing(or decreasing), mosquito
natural death rate,η, human disease induced death rate, δh ,
treated rate,τ, mosquito disease induced death rate,δv and
human natural death rate, µ, by 10% will decrease (or increase)
of R0 by 7.9%, 2.9%, 1.04%, 0.37% and 3.9% respectively.
In addition to that, our sensitivity analysis presents that the
most sensitive parameter is mosquito biting rate. To reduce
the malaria transmission in DRC, we should try to find some
strategies to reduce the mosquito biting rate such that as: using
insecticide treated bed nets, insect repellent, indoor residual
spraying and others. [12] M.EL.Osman,A.Ebenezer,N.Hassan,C.Yang, Sensitivity Analysis of
Mathematical Model for Malaria Transmission with Saturated Incidence
TABLE III: Sensitivity indices of R0 to parameters for model 1 Rate,2019,22(3): 1-10,Article no.JSRR.46131
[13] F.O.Akinpelu, M.M.Ojo, A Mathematical Model for the Dynamic
Spread of Infection Caused by Poverty and Prostitution in Nigeri-
No Parameter Sensitivity index a,Int.J.Math.Phys.Sci.Res,2016,4,3347
1 b 1 [14] V.Driessche, J.Watmough, Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold
endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission,
2 βhv 0.5 Math.Biosci.2002,180,2948.
3 βvh 0.5 [15] S.Olaniyi,OS.Obabiyi, Mathematical model for malaria transmis-
4 Λh 0.5 sion dynamics in human and mosquito populations with nonlin-
5 Λv 0.5 ear forces of infection, International Journal of Pure and Applied
6 σv 0.579417 Mathematics,2013;88:125-156.
7 η -0.537602 [16] N.Chitnis,J.Hyman,J.Cushing, Determining important parameters in the
8 δh -0.419453 spread of malaria through the sensitivity analysis of a mathematical
9 τ -0.0801491 model, Bull.Math. Biol,2008,70:1272-1296.
10 δv -0.0454545 [17] CDC. Anopheles mosquitoes, Centers for Disease Control and Preven-
tion, 2015.
11 θ 0.00363993 [18] http:www.who.int/malaria/publications/country-profiles/en/
12 µ -0.00063993
13 σh 0.00028425

VI. C ONCLUSION
In this paper, we formulated a mathematical model of malar-
ia transmission with saturated incidence rate. The model is
used to simulate malaria infected cases of DRC. Furthermore,
we performed the sensitivity analysis of R0 . Our results show
that the malaria is endemic in DRC and mosquito biting rate
is the most sensitive parameter. According to our results we
made some suggestion to reduce and control the disease. In
our future work, we will develop our model by including
environmental factor(s) or some optimal control strategies to
reduce and eradicate the disease in DRC.

R EFERENCES
[1] Malaria Key facts,Available: https:www.who.int/news-room/fact-
sheets/detail/malaria
[2] Malaria 2018 report,Available at:https:apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/
275867/9789241565653-eng.pdf?ua=1
[3] Centre for Disease Control and prevention(CDC), Anopheles
mosquitoes. Available:ww.cdc.gov/malaria/about/biology/mosquitoes/index.html
[4] Malaria, International travel and health, Available:www.int/ith/disease/
malaria/en.
[5] A.Flahault,A.Le Menach,E.F.Mekenzie,DL.Smith, The unexpected im-
portance of mosquito oviposition behaviour for malaria: non productive
larva habitats can be sources for malaria transmission, Malaria Jour-
nal.2005;4
[6] S.Rosa,D.F.M.Torres, Parameter estimation, sensitivity analysis and op-
timal control of a periodic epidemic model with application to HRSV
in Florida,Stat.Optim.Inf.Comput. 2018;6:139-149.
[7] S.Parnell,T.Gottwald,C.A.Gilligan,N.J.Cunniffe,F.Bosch, The effect of
landscape pattern on the optimal eradication zone of an invading
epidemic, Phytopathology,2010,vol.100,no.7,pp. 638644
[8] E.Beretta,V.Capasso,DG.Garao, A mathematical model
for malaria transmission with asymptomatic carriers and
two age groups in the human population, Mathematical
BioSciences,2018,50489=3.DIO(10.1016)j.mbs.03.024.
[9] X.Feng,S.Ruan,Z.Teng and K.Wang, Stability and backward bifurcation
in a malaria transmission model with applications to the control of
malaria in China, Mathematical Bio- sciences,2015,266 5264.
[10] L.Caia,X.Li,N.Tuncer,M.Martcheva,A.A.Lashari, Optimal control of a
malaria model with asymptomatic class and superinfection. Mathemat-
ical Biosciences,2017,DOI:10.1016/j.mbs.2017.03.003.
[11] M.EL.Osman, I.K.Adu, C.Yang, A Mathematical Model Malaria Trans-
mission in Democratic Republic of the Congo, J Math Stat Anal,2018,1:
206