Professional Documents
Culture Documents
asset management
industry: Adapting
to a new normal
November 2019
Authors and
acknowledgements
Sid Azad
Partner, London
sid_azad@mckinsey.com
Pierre-Ignace Bernard
Senior Partner, Paris
pierre-ignace_bernard@mckinsey.com
Cristina Catania
Partner, Milan
cristina_catania@mckinsey.com
Kevin Cho
Associate Partner, New York
kevin_cho@mckinsey.com
Martin Huber
Senior Partner, Dusseldorf
martin_huber@mckinsey.com
Philipp Koch
Senior Partner, Munich
philipp_koch@mckinsey.com
Christian Zahn
Partner, Frankfurt
christian_zahn@mckinsey.com
Any discussion of the state of the industry exceeds organic revenue growth net of capital
must begin with an acknowledgement of the market performance.
macroeconomic environment, which is typically
Organic growth has slowed on a global basis,
responsible for 50 to 80 percent of growth,
influenced primarily by Asia, and China in particular.
and which has swung the industry between
While Western Europe also has been a strong
extremes over the last few years. An environment
contributor to organic growth, averaging 3 to 5
of uncertainty has prevailed, leading to market
percent per year since 2014, in 2018 the net-flow
conditions which are also testing investor
effect fell to approximately 1 percent, more in line
convictions; for example, in the fixed-income
with structural economic and personal financial
markets, where more than €7.8 trillion in European
asset growth in developed economies.
bonds are currently negative yielding. Following
the exuberance of 2017, when assets under Pressure has been persistent on revenue yields, with
management (AUM), revenues, and profits all hit fee compression responsible for about 80 percent
record highs for European asset management, 2018 of the decline in revenue yields year-over-year
brought more challenging conditions, particularly (asset class and style-mix shifts are responsible
in the public equities market in the fourth quarter. for the remaining 20 percent). While passives are
Market valuations have since recovered with a certainly growing faster than other investment
vengeance, as European AUM have reached a styles, the pace of the shift to passives has been
record €22 trillion, though revenue and profit pools more muted in Europe than in North America, with
for the year are not likely to reach 2017’s high- significant variance in the rate of passive adoption
water mark. While year-over-year 2019 AUM is up across markets and client segments.
by approximately 10 percent, we expect average While asset managers’ ongoing cost-reduction
AUM to be up by only 3 percent. Most importantly, efforts have received recent press attention,
however, we expect profit margins to be down by sustained operating leverage has remained elusive
approximately 2 percentage points based on our for the industry overall. Despite diminished growth
interim estimates—the result of persistent pricing and market performance expectations coming out
pressure and absolute cost growth, confirming of an exuberant 2017, overall spending by European
the continuation of the trend in which cost growth
Western Europe1
21 22
20 18.1 17.5 17.5
1.5
11
0.2 7.8
-2.9
2008
1
Includes Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Switzerland, United Kingdom, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden, and Spain.
2
Third-party assets only; excludes alternative investments.
Source: McKinsey Performance Lens Global Growth Cube
asset managers grew by 2 percent year-over- decreases in fee levels), and while Europe has
year (though functional spending in investment seen a relatively lower degree of “barbelling”
management, distribution, and operations was of investor behaviors in terms of asset mix,
flat to slightly below 2017 levels). As a silver lining, this could change amid sustained demand for
European managers did demonstrate more yield-generating assets (buoying flows across
discipline than their North American peers on fixed income, private credit, infrastructure,
average, where cost growth was twice as fast and and real estate) and the consistently growing
increased across virtually all functional areas. share of passive strategies (particularly with
significantly accelerated outflows in active
Averages aside, there remains significant
equities to date in 2019). Market reactions to
dispersion in asset manager profitability and
macroeconomic shocks have also elevated
growth across and within different business
the importance of portfolio construction
models. As we contended last year, deliberate
and risk management as a source of returns
business model choices and alignment of clear
and resilience.
value propositions matter. We do not believe there
are just one or two winning formulas; however, —— Growing transparency from regulatory
achieving disproportionate growth will require implementation: The impacts of MiFID II
asset managers to take proactive and bold actions are emerging across the industry, including:
in response to the forces continuing to reshape the distributors narrowing manager buy lists, and
industry ecosystem: raising the bar on performance; fragmentation
of research with large managers driving a 20
—— Lower growth and returns: Investors face the
to 30 percent reduction in broker research
realities of a “lower for longer” environment
spending (and redeploying spending to niche/
for global economic growth and interest rates
specialist research providers, contributing to
(Exhibit 2, next page). Consistent alpha remains
alpha generation); transparency increasing fee
hard to generate (at least without significant
7.1
6.6
6.0 5.6
3.4
1.7
1
Includes top 28 markets globally, covering ~98% of global AUM; average growth scenario for next 5 years.
Source: McKinsey Performance Lens Global Growth Cube
sensitivity in the industry, amplifying product include providing more integrated investment,
commoditization and buoying ETF growth research, trading, and analytical platforms; the
in retail; and improved profitability of some continuing electronification of flow products,
banking captives, which are benefiting from fee including corporate and sovereign fixed-income
unbundling and cost savings on market data. trading; and promising initial blockchain uses in
investment and trade operations.
—— Competition increasing with both greater
concentration and fragmentation: Growth Against this backdrop, we believe there are several
continued favoring managers with scale and strategic imperatives that European asset managers
scope, and consolidation gathered steam as urgently need to focus on starting today.
managers sought to build their presence in high-
growth areas and invest in technology to create Emerging symptoms of structurally
more efficient operating platforms. However, slowing growth
despite the largest managers having achieved
The vulnerability of Europe’s asset managers to the
higher AUM growth, industry fragmentation has
macroeconomic environment remains elevated,
been sustained particularly amongst managers
as an historic asset boom powered by cheap and
with less than €100 billion in AUM (Exhibit
plentiful capital and rapid economic development
3, next page).
in emerging markets gives way to slower structural
—— Innovation outside the industry creating new growth and uncertainty (Exhibit 4, next page).
sources of competitive edge and disruption: Market conditions are also testing historical
The explosion in the availability of data and assumptions (e.g., the market value of negatively
new sources of insight was also fueled by yielding European bonds reached nearly €3 trillion
growing consolidation and competition amongst in 2018 and has hit record highs of nearly €8 trillion
financial data providers. Asset managers are in 2019), intensifying the search for new sources of
just beginning to mine these data sources at yield and diversification. In this context, client needs
scale, as middle- and back-office platforms are for investment advice and stewardship are arguably
modernized or outsourced to innovative market as great as they have ever been.
infrastructure providers. These innovations
Number of asset managers globally by size,1 Average AUM, 2007 vs. 2018,
€ billion € billion
207
10-100 181
36 42 +16%
2007 2018
1
Excluding small asset managers with AUM under €10 billion
Source: IPE
Exhibit 4
The surge in equity markets across the globe in 2017 powered growth in assets
under management.
2007 index priced evolution, indexed to 100 in local currency
220
180
160
DAX
140
Nikkei 225
120 FTSE 100
S&P/ASX 200
100
CAC 40
80
60
40
20
0
2007 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 2019 Q3
Source: Bloomberg
4.4
Net new
money (NNM) 3.3
2.8
2.6 Even in the
2.1 2.0 “bad” years for
1.6 1.7
0.9
1.3 performance,
0.4 NNM was still
positive
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Performance 14
8 10 10
7 6
5
-1 0
-3
-3
-17
-17
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
1
Includes 42 countries from North America, Western Europe, CEE, GCC, Developed and Emerging Asia, Latin America, and Africa.
Source: McKinsey Performance Lens Global Growth Cube
In 2018, global AUM fell year-over-year by However, the net-flow effect remained positive at
approximately 1 percent, the first overall annual 0.2 percent, albeit at a muted rate (the second-
decline since the financial crisis (Exhibit 5). The lowest in the past decade) compared to the 3.8
decline was driven by negative market performance, percent average between 2014 and 2017 (Exhibit
as organic growth remained solidly positive, albeit at 7, next page).
the lowest level since 2012 (about 2 percent net-flow
Growth dynamics in the largest European markets
effect vis-à-vis 2017 AUM).
paralleled those of the overall region. Uncertainty
Asia-Pacific has been the largest regional driver of around Brexit impacted growth in the UK, which
global industry growth, with China alone generating was the sole outlier with negative net-flow effect,
half of global net flows last year, primarily in fixed as institutional investors adopted a wait-and-see
income and private markets (private equity, real approach.
estate, infrastructure), in addition to money market
European asset manager share of overall European
funds. Over the last five years, China and Western
financial assets was at 27 percent in 2018, with
Europe contributed over 60 percent of global net
managed retail assets gaining two percentage
flows, generated from a mix of retail and specific
points of share since 2014 and managed
institutional client segments like insurance general
institutional/DC remaining flat. As a potential
accounts and corporates increasing assets
offset to slower structural economic growth,
outsourced to third-party investment managers
there remains a massive opportunity for asset
(Exhibit 6, next page).
managers to increase conversion of unmanaged
Western Europe’s asset managers experienced and internally managed assets, particularly in the
challenges in overall AUM growth in 2018 (-3.2 institutional market, where internally managed
percent), largely due to poor market performance assets reached €44 trillion in 2018, nearly three
stemming from macroeconomic uncertainty (for times larger than institutional managed assets
example, monetary policy outlook, soft corporate (Exhibit 8, page 8).
earnings and guidance, trade uncertainty).
Global
25% 25%
North America Western Europe 9.7
1.6
1.6 2.8 Central/Eastern China 77.1
0.2 0.1 Europe
37.9 21.2 3.4
0.04 0.8
0.01
0.3 5.7
Japan
Middle East/
Africa
0.8 0.1
Rest of Asia
0.2
0.1 3.9
Latin America 0.7
1.8 0.2
0.2
0.03 3.3
1.5
Australia
0.1 0.01
1.6
1
Includes 42 countries from North America, Western Europe, CEE, GCC, Developed and Emerging Asia, LatAm and Africa
Source: McKinsey Performance Lens Global Growth Cube
Exhibit 7
Western European net flows slowed in 2018, following 4 consecutive years
of strong growth.
Percent of beginning-of-year Western European AUM
5.1
4.0
3.3
2.8 3.0
2.2
Net new money 1.8 1.5
0.2 0.2
-2.9
11.1
7.1 6.6 6.1
Performance 4.9 4.3 4.8
2.2
-2.7 -3.5
-12.7
2008 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2018
1
Includes Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Switzerland, United Kingdom, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden, and Spain.
Source: McKinsey Performance Lens Global Growth Cube
(3.2)
44 (3.5)
79
14 (3.7)
21 15 6
1
Includes 16 countries from Western Europe.
2
Numbers have been rounded.
3
Includes directly held securities, cash, and deposits
Source: McKinsey Performance Lens Global Growth Cube
Exhibit 9
Western European asset manager profit margins declined slightly in 2018, led by a
2% drop in net revenue margins.
Bps of average AUM
Net revenues
bps
Operating profit
2007 08 09 13 14 15 16 17 2018
15.6
12.5 12.3 13.0 12.1 12.9 12.3
9.8 8.6
-
bps
2007 08 09 13 14 15 16 17 2018 Operating costs
59 70 73 65 65 64 64 63 64
22.0 22.8 23.0 23.4 23.1 22.8 21.9 21.6 21.6
Cost-to-income ratio
Percent
2007 08 09 13 14 15 16 17 2018
¹Cristina Catania, Felix Germann, and Christian Zahn, “Full speed ahead in European asset management,” November 2018, McKinsey.com.
Exhibit 10
Western Europe has not experienced as much displacement of active strategies by passive than
other geographies, and in particular has not embraced passive multi-asset strategies.
Cumulative net flows (2013-18), € billion, figures rounded
6,200
1,890 Money
markets
3,010
Money
220 2,060 Fixed income
markets
265
Equities
475
180 810 Alternatives1 690
285 <10 410
Passive Active
1
Includes hedge funds, absolute return, other liquid alternative strategies; private markets (based on cumulative fundraising from 2013-18; includes private equity, real estate, infrastructure,
natural resources).
Note: Includes 28 countries/regions from North America (2), Latin America (2), GCC (1), Western Europe (12), Developed Asia (2) and Rest of Asia (9), accounting for ~96% of global AUM; analysis
does not include CEE, Africa, Chile, Argentina, Belgium, Ireland, Portugal, and Luxembourg.
Source: McKinsey Performance Lens Global Growth Cube
1
Does not include internally managed AUM.
Exhibit
Source: McKinsey12Performance Lens Global Growth Cube
In Western Europe, revenue yield compression nearly offset profit pools growth from market
performance, while cost growth outpaced net new revenue contribution.
Asset management profit pools,1 Western Europe
€ billion, estimates
(0.1)
(3.2)
0.6 (0.4)
18.1 (3.5)
0.2
Positive contribution despite (0.9)
year-on-year AUM decline, as average 17.5
AUM in 2018 was up by ~2%
1
Estimate for combined third-party and proprietary.
2
Impact based on average AUM in 2018.
Source: McKinsey Performance Lens Global Growth Cube, McKinsey Performance Lens Global Asset Management Survey
Defined contribution
Exhibit 13
While Western European functional cost growth decreased in investment management,
distribution, and operations, overall spending levels continued to rise in 2018.
Cost pool by function
Indexed to 2007
CAGR CAGR
2007-17 2017-18
168 172 5% 2%
156
53 9% -4%
Investment 54
management 48
100
Sales and 32 4% 0%
28 32
marketing 23
27 27 2%
0.4 -2%
Operations1 21 25
Technology 21 19 20 22 4% 5%
14
Management/ 36 35 37 6% 6%
20
administration/
and other 2007 2016 2017 2018
Cost/average
AUM, bps 22 21.9 21.6 21.6
1
Western Europe Operations includes ~1 bp of expense from associated TA costs
Source: McKinsey Performance Lens Global Asset Management Survey
Exhibit 14
Three innovation and ambition levels to unlock value.
1
Based on operating profit.
2
Over 5-year period.
3
Median of Western European companies participating in McKinsey Annual Asset Management Survey.
Source: McKinsey Performance Lens Global Asset Management Survey; expert estimates