Professional Documents
Culture Documents
The Bakery Business Plan
The Bakery Business Plan
Business Plan
2005
Prepared by:
Whitney Block
Nicole Greenbank
Heather Haeusler
Andrew Spencer
1
Bakery
Executive Summary
Introduction
Awareness of high quality baked goods is on the rise. There is an increased desire for
nutritious and delicious baked goods to give a feeling of healthy living. Breads, especially
whole grains, have many nutritious qualities with its abundance of carbohydrates and
fiber. Specialty breads which contain flax seed or other mixed grains are often high in
omega 3 fatty acids which have proven health benefits.
Operations Plan
The Bakery will be located in Saskatchewan. The bakery will be situated on a family
farm. The family wants to supplement the farm income by setting up this business. The
initial costs for establishing The bakeryBakery are shown in Table 1.
Human Resources
The bakery is being founded by the owner, who has a Bachelor of Science in Agriculture
from the University of Saskatchewan. Her mother, along with her grandmother, and two
sisters, will also be involved with the bakery. The owner will be the head baker as she
brings years of family baking experience to the company. Together, the women of the
this family will bring knowledge, desire to succeed, and a strong work ethic to the
bakery.
Marketing Plan
Goods will be sold in-store as well other farmer’s markets. Goods will also be sold
wholesale. These distribution channels were chosen based on the target market. This
market includes consumers interested in superior quality and taste in their baked goods,
and have the income to fulfill this desire. The bakery will market to these consumers by
promoting the benefits of a homemade product that is “just like grandma used to make”.
Financial Plan
According to the base run of the financial model The Bakery will be bankrupt by the
second year and therefore is not feasible. With a $150,000 long term loan, and $30,000 in
equity from the family, the bakery achieves an IRR of 24% and an ERR of 17%. By the
second year the equity is completely exhausted, and payments can not be made on the
loan. Cash flows remain positive for all ten years of the financial plan because of the size
of the introductory loan. These positive cash flows do not indicate a feasible plan.
Based on the scenario analysis is a volatile business. In the worst case scenario a quantity
and price drop of 5% results in an IRR of -2.4%. In the best case scenario a quantity and
price increase of 5% creates an IRR of 54.3%. However, the company is still bankrupt in
the best case scenario.
Conclusion
This business plan for the bakery shows that is an infeasible business. According the
financial analysis it is not recommended they proceed with the bakery business plan as
currently established.
Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.............................................................................................................................I
TABLE OF CONTENTS............................................................................................................................III
LIST OF TABLES.........................................................................................................................................V
LIST OF FIGURES.....................................................................................................................................IV
1.0 INTRODUCTION....................................................................................................................................1
1.1 BACKGROUND........................................................................................................................................1
1.2 OBJECTIVES............................................................................................................................................1
2.0 OPERATIONS AND HUMAN RESOURCES PLAN..........................................................................2
2.1 ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE..............................................................................................................2
2.2 SITE PLAN...............................................................................................................................................2
2.3 BUILDING AND FLOOR PLANS................................................................................................................3
2.4 WORK PLAN AND FLOW OF WORK........................................................................................................4
2.4.1 Technical Processes......................................................................................................................5
2.4.2 Quality Control Program..............................................................................................................5
Sanitation Regulations............................................................................................................................7
2.4.3 Suppliers and Wholesalers............................................................................................................8
2.4.4 Environmental Limitations & Regulations:...................................................................................9
2.5 THE CAPITAL BUDGET...........................................................................................................................9
2.6 WORKING CAPITAL PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT............................................................................10
2.6.1 Cost of Goods Sold for manufacturing and/or processing firms.................................................10
2.6.3 Administration, Marketing, and General Expenses.....................................................................11
2.6.4 Working Capital Planning and Management..............................................................................13
3.0 THE HUMAN RESOURCES PLAN....................................................................................................13
3.0 THE HUMAN RESOURCES PLAN....................................................................................................14
3.1 JOB DESCRIPTIONS:...............................................................................................................................14
4.0 MARKETING PLAN.............................................................................................................................17
4.1 OVERVIEW...................................................................................................................................17
4.2 THE MARKETING MIX (4 P’S).....................................................................................................17
4.2.1 Products & Services:...................................................................................................................17
4.2.2 Price:...........................................................................................................................................17
4.2.3 Promotion:...................................................................................................................................17
4.2.4 Place:...........................................................................................................................................17
4.3 SEGMENTATION, TARGETING, AND POSITIONING........................................................................18
4.3.1 Segmentation...............................................................................................................................18
4.3.2 Target Markets............................................................................................................................18
4.3.4 Positioning...................................................................................................................................20
4.4 SWOT ANALYSIS........................................................................................................................21
4.5 MARKET ANALYSIS:.............................................................................................................................24
4.5.1 The Market...................................................................................................................................24
4.5.2 Competition.................................................................................................................................26
4.5.3 Customers:...................................................................................................................................30
4.5.4 Target Markets............................................................................................................................32
4.5.5 Product Features:........................................................................................................................32
4.5.6 The Opportunity:.........................................................................................................................34
4.6 MARKETING STRATEGY...............................................................................................................35
COMM 492.3 College of Agriculture and College of Commerce, University of Saskatchewan iii
Bakery
List of Tables
List of Figures
1.0 Introduction
1.1 Background
The owner and her husband are a young couple who farm in Saskatchewan. The couple
operates a grain/cattle farm. The owner works off the farm, but plans to work solely on
the farm by owning/operating a bakery. This bakery would utilize family recipes and hard
work ethic. The business venture would be family oriented, with three generations of
women making the product. The family will utilize their farmyard for the bakery site. The
bakery would first make assorted white and whole wheat breads, buns, muffins, cookies
and tarts.
1.2 Objectives
The purpose of this business plan is to create a plan for starting and running a small, on-
farm bakery. Products offered will include fresh bakery goods such as breads, buns, tarts,
cookies, and muffins. These products will be sold on site to customers coming into the
bakery. Products will also be distributed farmers’ markets, as well as the Sask Made
market and Bulk Cheese Warehouse in Saskatoon.
Board of Directors
President/Manager
Head Baker
Assistant Baker/Delivery
Person
Assistant Baker/Delivery
Person
Assistant Baker
northwest side of the farm near the driveway, where there is easy access for customers
and transport trucks.
An average day for the bakery will require long hours of operation. To bake the amount
of bread required by the bakery, the bakers will have to start around 4:00 am and will not
finish till around noon. (Danish Oven, 2005). The bakery will generally be open to the
public from 8:00 am to 5:00 pm but hours will be flexible since the bakery is on the farm.
A floor worker will be needed at the bakery during the day to run the store and serve
customers. The bakers at the rear of the bakery will manage the store till 9:00am.
Raw materials will enter the bakery at the back of the kitchen. All baking will take place
in the kitchen. Finished goods will be loaded into the delivery vans through the back door
or sold at the front counter. Customers will enter through the front door. Appendix A has
a flow of work diagram that shows in detail the flow of materials and people in the
bakery.
The local fire chief will have to come out to the bakery for an inspection upon its
completion. At this time they will also determine the maximum seating capacity for the
coffee shop portion of the bakery (Bergerman, 2005).
The public health inspector will have to be contacted, and he will have to approve the
plans for the bakery as well as inspect it before it opens for business (Bergerman, 2005).
Once the public health inspector has received an application, as well as all the
information and material needed, and is satisfied with the condition of the bakery he shall
issue a license to operate. This license is subject to any terms and conditions that he
considers appropriate (Government of Saskatchewan Publications Centre, 1988).
There must be at least one employee on each shift that has taken the Safe Food Handling
Courses. These are conducted by the local health inspectors (Bergerman, 2005).
CFIA Regulations:
The CFIA requires that the bakery comply with the requirements of the Food and Drugs
Act and the Consumer Packaging and Labeling Act and their related regulations (CFIA
Webmaster, 2005). Sections four through seven of the Food and Drugs Act distributed by
the government of Canada explain regulations that the bakery will have to follow.
Appendix B includes a detailed description of additional key CFIA regulations.
Labeling Regulations:
The CFIA guide to food labeling and advertising was consulted to identify specific
regulations required for labeling and advertising for bakeries. All of the bread products
that are produced by the bakery will have to be labeled because the guide states
“All pre-packaged products require a label with the following exceptions:
One-bite confections, such as candy or stick of gum, sold individually; and
fresh fruits or vegetables packaged in a wrapper or confining band of less then ½
inch” (Section 2.3).
This will not apply to any unwrapped baked goods that are sold to customers in the coffee
shop. There are many other labeling regulations that will need to be considered. They are
described in Appendix C. The bakery will have to go through the guide to labeling and
advertising to find out each regulation that they must follow. (CFIA, 2003).
Labour Standards:
According to the labour standards act no employer can require an employee to work more
than eight hours per day, or forty hours per week. If they do work more hours than this
then they must be paid time and a half. Also if an employee works more that six hours per
day they must be allowed at least a thirty minute lunch break within five hours of work
(Saskatchewan Labour, 1995).
Sanitation Regulations
The government of Saskatchewan has sanitation regulations that the bakery must follow.
These regulations are found under the Food, water, and ice section of the sanitation
regulations guide put out by the government of Saskatchewan. The equipment used in the
bakery must be clean and sanitary, and the staff must also be clean and sanitary. All
employees involved in the manufacturing, preparing, making, handling, care and sale of
the baked goods must be cleanly in their habits and mode of working, and must wear
clean washable clothing, and suitable head-dress when required to by the medical health
officer. These employees are also in charge of keeping premises and all machinery,
equipment, appliances, refrigerators in clean and sanitary condition. Food that is offered
for sale or displayed must be protected from sources of contamination. The definition of
protection is determined by the medical health officer. The room, in which the food that
is intended for sale is stored, prepared, or consumed, must not be used as a sleeping
quarters, and it must not house any domestic animals. The food that is being transported
from the bakery in the delivery van must be protected by a wrapping or covering that will
preserve it from contamination. The van used for this transport must be equipped with the
suitable facilities for transporting the goods, and these facilities must be kept clean and
sanitary.
FSEP & HACCP Regulations:
The Food Safety Enhancement Program (FSEP) has been developed by the CFIA to
encourage implantation, maintenance, and development of the Hazard Analysis Critical
Control Points system (HACCP). HACCP is a program that the bakery would develop to
implement controls throughout the manufacture of their baked products, and to achieve
food safety standards, and enhance food safety. While it is only necessary for fish and
seafood processing plants, as well as meat slaughtering plants exporting to America, it is
still voluntarily adopted by many companies processing food. This is because the
program has been widely adopted throughout the world.
Producing a safe food product in the bakery will be based upon the Critical Control
Points (CCP) listed in the seven basic principles of HACCP. A CCP is a step in the
manufacturing process that is applied so that a food safety hazard is prevented,
eliminated, or reduced to a suitable level. CCP’s include things such as cooking, chilling,
sanitizing, prevention of cross contamination, and employee and environmental hygiene.
To obtain a HACCP certificate a CFIA agent will verify that the bakery’s HACCP system
is carried out according to the written procedures, and is effective in providing the control
measures outlined. Once certified the bakery will be audited by a CFIA inspector to
ensure that records, procedures, control measures, and corrective action is up to date and
accurate (CFIA, 2005). Appendix D includes further information concerning HACCP
regulations that pertain to the bakery.
The total marketing expenses for 2007 is $13,549. This includes newspaper advertising,
bulletins, business cards, travel expense, accounting, van rental, and telephone expenses.
The bakery will require maintenance of the vehicle. The main expense will be gas for the
vehicle. With gas prices averaging $1.00/litre, gas costs will be $4,500 per year. This
price is based on the van getting 30 miles to the gallon with a 50 litre gas tank.
The interest on debt is calculated based on a $150,000 loan over 10 years. Based on a
8% interest rate. Yearly payments (principle payments plus interest payments) on the
loan would be $17,524 per year.
Canada Pension Plan contributions were calculated by following a guide on the Revenue
Canada website. Calculations were based on the employee contribution rate of 4.95%.
The numbers of pay periods were divided by a basic exemption rate. This was then
subtracted from the employees’ gross pay for each pay period and then multiplied by
4.95%. The owner and Kathy will both be paid a salary once a month. Elizabeth, Laurie
and Lisa will be paid bi-monthly, according to a 5-day work week. Elizabeth is ineligible
for CPP because she is over 70 years old.
Employment Insurance
Employment Insurance premiums are deducted by multiplying the employee’s insurable
earnings by the EI rate for the year, which is 1.95% for 2005.
Vacation Pay
Vacation Pay is determined by the business and is a percentage of the employee’s gross
income. The basic entitlement is two weeks of vacation for every completed "year of
employment". After six consecutive years of employment with the same employer, the
entitlement increases to three weeks of vacation. Vacation pay is calculated as a
percentage of the gross wages an employee earns during the "year of employment".
Where the vacation entitlement is two weeks, vacation pay is 4 per cent of earnings in the
entitlement year; where the entitlement is 3 weeks, the vacation pay is 6 per cent of
earnings. (Government of Canada, 2005) The business determined the vacation pay to be
4% of gross income.
Workers’ Compensation
To ensure coverage with the WCB (Workers’ Compensation Board) employers have to
register their business by completing a form which will ensure the business is assessed in
the proper industry classification. The Saskatchewan WCB states, “Most employers in
Saskatchewan are automatically covered by the province's workers' compensation
legislation. All employers operating in industries covered under Saskatchewan's
legislation, which employ workers on a regular, casual or contractual basis, must register
and establish an account with the WCB.” (The Saskatchewan Workers’ Compensation
Board, 2005)
Inventories
Because the product produced by the bakery is a perishable food item the finished goods
inventory is two days. The inventory costs will be low because the product does not
remain in inventory long. Any inventory that is left over will need to be disposed of. The
raw materials inventory will be 30 days so that ingredients do not go stale.
Accounts Receivable
The business will have a short cash conversion cycle because the product is a perishable
item. The accounts receivable for the business will be based on a percentage of total
sales for the year. This total includes sales from the bakery, farmers markets, the Bulk
Cheese Warehouse and Sask Made marketplace. Roughly 15% of yearly sales come from
wholesale. There will be an average collection period of 30 days, with no discounts
offered.
Accounts Payable
The business will use a credit card to purchase all raw materials. The credit card is a
Business Card MasterCard, which is often used by small businesses for financial
convenience and control. It has an interest rate is 18.99%, with a grace period of 21 days.
Telephone and power bills, once received, will be paid with a credit card within 30 days.
The store will obtain an interac terminal, for which there is no fee. The suppliers will be
Dawn Foods (Saskatoon), Costco Wholesale Canada (Saskatoon) and Topsyn Packaging
(Saskatoon). All materials bought from suppliers will be paid for using cash.
President/Manager –
Must have good business skills to appoint staff members to different jobs, and
design a work schedule for each staff member
Strong organizational, communication, technical skills
Knowledge of accounting
Willingness/ability to travel
Oversees daily production
Ensures product quality
Purchase ingredients from wholesaler
Ensures facility is kept in good working condition clean
Salary is $25,000 per year, starting in the first year of full production which is
2007
Head Baker
Assistant Baker
Dishwasher
Basic janitorial skills
Total wage for 2007 is $13,440 based on $9.33/hour
Delivery Persons
The business will staff approximately five people. If the business does well, and product
orders are high in demand, there may be need for an additional full time staff member.
There is no need for any future planned deletions of staff.
Training programs
According to the Saskatchewan Government website the regulations require that at least
one person who is certified in safe food handling be working in a public eating
establishment at all times when food is being prepared or served. (Government of
Saskatchewan, 2005) Public health inspectors employed by health regions and other
agencies do conduct courses. Courses are usually one day in length and a small fee of
$50 is charged. (Public Health, 2005) For the people enrolled in the course they will
receive a certificate in safe food handling. There are also various food handling programs
available through SIAST, these courses require a lot of investment with regards to time
and money. Courses range from 6 to 20 weeks and vary in prices, which is not cost
effective for this business. (SIAST, 2005) All staff members of the bakery will take the
one day course.
will signal employees to work harder and produce more products to meet demand. The
basic goals that the business will strive for are good employee relations and a well-trained
workforce. This is accomplished through training and sharing ideas. Standard operating
procedures will be laid out for operating equipment to ensure the safety of employees,
and prevent contamination or damage of the product. All employees will report to the
manager; the owner. (The Long Company, 2005)
The business will consist of five women. The owner who is 23, has a Bachelor of
Science in agriculture and a minor in business, will be the manager and will look after all
accounting and business aspects of the company. The owner also grew up baking with
her family and therefore has somewhat of a baking background. The head baker is 45,
has baked a good portion of her life and often makes her own breads, buns and a variety
of dessert and squares. Assistant bakers will include sisters and grandmother 77. The
sisters will be involved mainly in driving and working in the café area on occasion. One
will work mainly in the bakery and café, although she may help to bake on occasion.
The job that requires technical skills is the managerial position. This job will involve
working with computers by using various accounting programs, and also bookkeeping.
4.1 Overview
The bakery will be marketing to six main centers of sale. These include farmers markets,
as well as the bakery itself. These centers are the best way to reach our target market and
sell the number of goods needed to achieve our target profits.
4.2.2 Price:
The bakery will price its products at a premium because they are a fresh baked good of
higher quality and taste than other baked goods in the area. The prices will be slightly
higher but still be competitive with that of the local market for similar goods.
4.2.3 Promotion:
The bakery is going to portray an image of fresh, homemade, quality goods, with a down
home farm feel. On the label the company name and a picture of bread baking in an old
fashioned oven will be featured.
4.2.4 Place:
The product will be sold and Saskatoon. Products will be delivered in the bakery’s
delivery van. The products sold to the RM will be sold out of the bakery. Products will be
sold directly to the customer out of the bakery.
4.3.1 Segmentation
The bakery will be selling its baked goods through several different channels of
distribution. Each of these channels will attract different types of people. These channels
include Saskatchewan farmers markets,.
Based upon the geographic area that these distribution channels exist in, it can be
segmented into the population of Saskatoon. The Farmers Markets and the bakery all
cater to the rural or small urban center population in their respective regions.
Saskatoon
The target market is the population who seek to purchase a higher quality product that
reminds the consumer of homemade baking from their past. These consumers are usually
between the ages of 30 and 65. They are middle to higher income families or individuals.
The Saskatoon distribution channels each cater to a different segment of the target
market.
Bulk Cheese Warehouse:
The Bulk Cheese Warehouse is located on Broadway Street in Saskatoon, an area that is
traditionally associated with high quality specialty products. The Bulk Cheese Warehouse
attracts customers who are looking for a wide variety of high quality goods, for a
premium price. Its current product mix includes: foreign and local cheeses, specialty
meats, such as jerky and souvilaki that are made in the store, and bagels.
Rural/Small Center
:
Patrons of the farmers markets are categorized in a different way than those that attend
the Saskatoon Farmers Market. Consumers i will attend more for the social benefit of
seeing friends and neighbors and supporting one another (www1.agric.gov.ab.ca). The
farmers market is seen more as a gathering place and as a chance to converse than as a
place to sell.
4.3.4 Positioning
Positioning will be divided by channel of distribution and specific venue the product will
be sold in. At the Bulk Cheese Warehouse and Sask Made Marketplace the bakery will
sell its specialty breads and buns. They will be sold to these stores at a lower price. In
2006 the prices for specialty bread and buns is $1.13 and $1.50 respectively and will
grow by 2% every year. This is done to allow a profitable mark up by the stores. The
bakery products will be sold as a premium product, and will fit into the Bulk Cheese
Warehouse’s product mix of quality products. At the Sask Made Marketplace, the baking
will be sold as a home made product from Saskatchewan. At the Saskatoon Farmers
Market the full line of baking will be sold, at a premium price. Sales will increase as
reputation and familiarity of patrons to the products increase. The products will be sold as
healthy homemade baking. At the Farmers’ Markets, the baking will be sold as a local
product that is homemade at a premium price, common to products at bake sales and
markets. The bakery will be selling the full range of products at a premium price. Most
items will be sold as individual products, such as tarts or muffins.
· There are few bakeries making · Many of the local bakeries and
products from scratch in the local grocery stores sell whole wheat and
To determine the size of the market population, statistics from the last census year (2001)
were gathered for the area from PCensus. The 2005 estimated, and 2008, 2010, and 2015
projected populations were also obtained. To differentiate between age and sex the 2005
estimated Population by Sex & Age, and 2005 estimated Population by Age were also
obtained from PCensus. Population numbers are summarized in the following tables.
Since the bakery will be accessible to all of the people of the RM its population must
also be considered. This was obtained from the RM municipal office. The most recent
stats show that the population is 664 (RM ). It is important to keep in mind that this
population will include the population and 20 Km distance that is listed above.
The bakery will also be selling at the Saskatoon Farmers market so it is important to
know the number of people that shop there on a weekly basis. Deb Claude at the
Saskatoon Farmers market has quoted The bakery that 5000 people pass through the
Saturday market during the summer, and that the Saturday market in the winter draws
1250-1670 people. There were no numbers available for the Tuesday and Thursday
markets but it can be assumed that the numbers for these days would be similar to the
winter Saturday numbers or slightly less.
baked products, sales will dramatically increase. This will increase the sales of the whole
grain product line.
Economic:
As income increases the amount of money spent on food will also increase. This is
especially true in the bakery type foods such as the breads, buns, muffins, cookies, and
tarts offered by the Country Oven. Canglobal Management Inc. showed that percentage
of bakery products bought was second only to red meat when they looked at the share of
grocery spending on major food groups (35). The opposite is also true. If income
decreases the amount of money that is spent on bakery products will decrease.
4.5.2 Competition
The bakery’s competition will come from bakeries in the town of Wakaw, the city
Melfort, and also from various baking vendors at the Saskatoon farmer’s market.
Also in the town of Wakaw the Fine Foods grocery store makes their own in-store bread
from frozen bread dough purchased from Ready-Make. Because all of the goods are
made from frozen bread this may not be as appealing to the customer as opposed to
homemade baked goods.
In Melfort, competition includes the Melfort Co-op Bakery, which makes in-store breads
and desserts. There is also the Golden Grain bakery located in Melfort, which is a
café/bakery. The Golden Grain bakery charges more for their product because the
business is smaller than the grocery stores. The bakery also sells items individually in the
café and charge more per item. Also, customers view small-business bakeries in a more
positive way as opposed to bakeries which mass-produce items to be sold in their grocery
store. A breakdown of products and prices of the four competitors is listed in Table 7.
Competition is comparable to the bakery’s pricing as can be seen at the bottom of Table
7. The positive feeling which consumers have towards a family-owned and operated on-
farm bakery will compensate for the higher prices. The bakery will not have the wide
variety of products as the competitors in the first few years, but can diversify once the
business is established. The bakery will charge high prices for products as does
Crossroads.
Competition is also present at the Saskatoon farmer’s market. The vendors which sell
baking include; Betty’s Baking, Dianne’s Produce and Baking, Sweet Sensations, To
Heck With Calories, and Unruh’s Baking and Garden. The bread prices range from $1.25
to $4.00 per loaf, while the buns are $1.25 to $1.50 per dozen. The farmer’s market is a
good venue to sell through because of the high numbers of customers who go to the
market every week. The Wakaw and Melfort farmer’s markets will also have
competitive vendors selling baked goods.
Industry trends show that the small town bakery may not have as many customers as an
urban center, but the net profits may be equal or greater because of the lower overhead
costs. (http://www.nacm.org/bcmag/bcarchives/2003/oct/column4_10_03.html) Also,
while there may be a large number of bakeries in the city, bakeries in small towns are part
of their economy and usually thrive in these areas and there is less competition.
Consumers also look at a small-town bakery as having a more premium, fresher, higher
quality product.
New products and ideas are always being introduced in the industry. The bakery will
have to follow the trends of society such as new diet crazes (Atkins, South Beach) or new
eating habits (whole grains vs. white). The bakery will incorporate whole wheat and
multigrains into the product mix to ensure consumer satisfaction. If the business follows
these new trends they may have an added competitive edge. Bakeries diversify with
different recipes and can develop niche markets for certain products. The length of time
is quite short for competitors to develop a new competitive product to introduce into the
industry.
4.5.3 Customers:
Description of the Customers:
The customers for the product can be grouped in to three categories – local customers,
farmers’ market customers, Saskatoon customers and tourists.
Local Customers:
These are the residents the area, the town of Wakaw, the city of Melfort, and the RM of
Invergordon. Customers will be of all ages, but mostly 20+. There will also be male and
female customers, but the majority of customers will be female because they are the main
grocery shoppers of a family.
Farmers market customers:
When describing the customers it is important to consider what consumers spend on the
product. In Appendix E summarizes the total expenditures, and expenditures per
household made on bakery and cereal products, specifically the products that will be
produced by the Country Oven.
During the summer, purchases may be made two or three times a week because the
market is open three days versus just one day in the winter. Products can be purchased on
Tuesday’s at the Lakewood location, Thursday’s at the 51st St. location, and/or Saturday’s
at the Saskatoon City Hall location during the summer. In the winter months products can
be purchased on Saturday’s at the corner of Ave. A and 19th St.
Saskatoon customers will be able to purchase the bakery baked goods at three different
locations; the Saskatoon Farmers Market, The Bulk Cheese Warehouse, and the Sask
Made Market Place. Saskatoon Farmer’s Market customers will be able to purchase fresh
baked goods on the days and at the locations discussed above. Bulk Cheese Warehouse
customers will be able to purchase products at 732 Broadway Street. Sask. Made Market
Place customers will be able to purchase Country Oven products on 8th Street East.
are of middle to higher income. Consumers who are purchasing The bakery products
from the Bulk Cheese Warehouse are those which are looking for a wide variety of high
quality baked goods, and are willing to pay a premium price for them. Customers buying
Country Oven products at the Sask Made Market Place will have a strong sense of
provincial loyalty and will be willing to pay a premium price for fresh baked
Saskatchewan made bread, buns, and treats. Buyers at the Saskatoon farmers market are
families of middle to higher income from Saskatoon and surrounding area. They are those
that want to support local business people, want to find homemade baked goods, and who
enjoy the market place appeal.
List of specifications buyers in the target market are saying they need.
Consumers demand for health foods is increasing, and the demand for foods with high
nutritional properties is expected to increase in the near future (Canglobal Management
Inc, 31). Bread is considered a staple of the Canadian diet (Government of Saskatchewan)
and so will always be in demand. It has been shown that people are moving away from
the traditional products, like white bread, and are consuming a more premium and healthy
variety of bread products such as whole wheat and specialty products. In fact the whole
grains diet is expected to take over the Atkins diet. This increased popularity of whole
grains is partly due to the promotion of whole grain products by Canadian and American
dietary associations (Government of Saskatchewan). Finally, the demand for home-style
breads is increasing. The only statistics that proved this fact are from Quebec, but it can
be assumed that this trend is occurring nation wide. In Quebec there was a 20 - 25%
increase in demand for home-style breads since 2001 (Québec Bakery Industry Outlook).
Does the existing product match the needs of the target market?
Existing products do meet most or all of the needs of the target market listed above.
There are many types of white, partially and 100% whole wheat breads, as well as a
number of specialty breads on the market. This makes the industry very competitive, with
a lot of competitors for The bakery to contend with. The bakery will have an edge when it
comes to home-style breads because their baked products are fresh and homemade on the
farm, compared to the competitors who may use just add water mixes to make their
products.
Sales Forecast
The sales forecast for The bakery is shown in Table 8.
In 2006, The bakery is projected to be in full production by May. This is in time for the
opening of most of Saskatchewan’s summer farmers markets. After 2006 production
increase to meet the full year’s demand. Sales forecasts are based on the following
factors:
The over-the-counter type distribution will be suited more towards breads, buns, cookies,
muffins and tarts. This method will be more cost effective as pricing will be quite high.
Since the bakery will not have to sell the goods on a wholesale basis items can be priced
individually and therefore average pricing and profits will be higher. This method is the
best match for the business because profits will be higher on a per item basis. Most of the
competitors use the over-the-counter distribution method as well.
The wholesaling method will only include breads and buns because of the nature of the
stores. These products will match both the Bulk Cheese Warehouse and Sask Made
store’s products in that they are both selling high quality, specialty products.
These types of channels will reach the major target markets. The over-the-counter
method will reach the target market readily, because the business is targeting a
demographic which is ages 30-65. This demographic will be abundant at farmers
markets and in the local area.
Over-the-counter retailing will require sales support to work behind the counter at both
the on-farm bakery and the farmers market, while the wholesaling method will not
require any extra staff.
Price of Product
Specialty Bread Wholesale $1.13
Specialty Bread Farmers Market $2.50
Specialty Buns Wholesale (1/2 dz) $1.50
Specialty Buns Farmers Market (1/2 dz) $3.00
Tarts Farmers Market (1/2 dz) $4.00
Tarts Store (1/2 dz) $8.00
Muffins Farmers Market (1/2 dz) $4.00
Muffins Store (1/2) $8.00
Cookies Farmers Market (1/2 dz) $3.00
The company will have total control over the pricing of its products. But they will have
to take into consideration the prices of competitors and how that will affect their
profitability. Discounts will need to be offered from time to time to get rid of day-old
products so they will not be wasted. The product the bakery is selling is unique in that
there are different prices for different markets. This is because each market is different
and therefore pricing must be differentiated. Over time the bakery will come to the
conclusion whether or not their prices can be maintained. In the future, profits will show
whether or not prices will have to increase or decrease based on consumer demand.
The bakery will try to sell their product by creating an image which people will gravitate
towards. The image will portray things such as: healthy, family-owned, fresh,
homemade, rural and “something that your grandma would make”.
The bakery will not need to expand the staff for advertising and sales. One of the staff
members will post bulletins around the area, while the rest of the advertising will consist
of promotion ads in newspapers, as well as a billboard along the highway. These media
types will be the most effective (cost-wise) to spread the word throughout the central part
of Saskatchewan. Personal promotion will also be an effective tool to promote the
product. Personal promotion will consist of handing out business cards, and word of
mouth. Other methods, such as radio advertising are too expensive. Tradeshows will not
be feasible because they are usually scheduled on Saturdays, which is the Country Oven’s
biggest sales day. The budget for marketing expenses in 2007 is illustrated in Table 11.
The marketing budget will consist of advertising in the Western Producer, which is an
excellent way to get the word out in the rural community. Pricing will be $410.00 for
running a 22 word ad every second week. Bulletins will consist of paper and ink and the
price is $58 based on 500 bulletins. Business cards are $89 for approximately 300 cards.
The latter two will be made by The bakery staff. Travel expenses are $200 based on
traveling for placing bulletins in various businesses.
Table 12. The January 1, 2007 balance sheet for The Bakery
Balance Sheet
Bakery
As of January 1, 2007
Assets
Current Assets
Cash 49,623
Accounts Recievable 5,891
Inventory 1,842
Total Current Assets 57,356
Fixed Assets
Buildings, Land, Machinery and Equipment 102,589
Accumulated C.C.A. (8,158)
Total Fixed Assets 94,431
Total Assets 151,788
Liabilities
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable 6,556
Total Current Liabilities 6,556
Non Current Liabilities
Long Term Debt 144,476
Total Non-Current Liabilities 144,476
Total Liabilitites 151,031
Equity
Owners Equity 30,000
Retained Earnings (29,244)
Total Equity 756
Total Liabilities and Owners Equity 151,788
of owner equity will be difficult to raise, due to the high risk associated for the investor.
Risk is much higher for equity holders than debt holders because if the business fails to
bring in profits debt holders are paid first. But if the business makes excess profit, equity
holders will be paid out first. Owner equity will be derived from different internal
investors (family members)., and The owner will all contribute $10,000 each. As Table
13 shows the total financing required, to cover total capital needs, is only $103,767, but
the total financing obtained is $180,000. The reason for the high amount of total
financing is because it is needed to cover negative cash flows.
The base run of the financial model shows that owner’s equity is exhausted by the end of
2007. The retained earnings are negative until 2014. The long term debt of $150,000
allows the cash flows remain positive. Even though the cash flows are positive, the
negative retained earnings and exhausted owners equity indicates that the business is
bankrupt.
NPV of equity using a required rate of return on equity is $26,942. The internal rate of
return (IRR) is the discount rate that equates the NPV to zero. The Country Oven’s IRR is
23.8%. The external rate of return represents the expected return on the investors’
investment based on the dividend policy. The bakeryis offering a low external rate of
return with a high risk rate, which may deter investors. The external rate of return is
16.8%. IRR is greater than ERR which is beneficial, but the company is still not feasible
because of a loss in retained earnings.
The projected financial results are summarized in Table 14. All of these values are based
on the base run of the financial model that is attached at the end of the business plan.
Critical Variables
Critical variables were found using numbers from 2007 base case financial model. This is
because 2007 is the first full year of operation for the bakery. Critical variables were first
found by setting the IRR to 0%. The IRR was then changed to 15% because this is a more
realistic situation, and the same variables were found to be the critical variables. The
critical values that were found are shown in the table below. The allowable % change
listed in the table is based on when IRR =15%
Four of the most critical variables that were found were driver’s wages, price of
farmers’market bread, price of farmers’ market buns, and quantity of farmers market
bread. These were very sensitive to changes in the IRR from the base case of 23.8% to
15%. The most critical variable was the driver’s wages because that is where the smallest
change occurred, but the price of farmers’ market bread was chosen for the break even
analysis because it is higher risk.
Break Even Analysis
Three types of breakeven analysis performed were cash flow, net income, and economic
(NPV). Figure 4 illustrates the breakeven analysis for the price of farmers’ market bread
which was found to be the most critical variable. The original price is compared to cash,
net income and NPV of the base case financial model. The breakeven analysis in Figure 4
shows that from 2013 to 2015 the price of farmers’ market bread can become negative.
This is due to the bakeries diversification and increased volume of sales is able to cover
fixed costs.
Cash
$8.00
Net Income
NPV
$6.00
$4.00
$2.00
Price
$-
$(2.00)
$(4.00)
$(6.00)
$(8.00)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Year
Scenario Analysis
Scenario analysis was done showing the best, worst and base case results. Table 16
summarizes the changes in price, quantity and IRR.The best case scenario is a 5%
increase in price of all the products.. This raises the IRR to 54.3%. The worst case
scenario is a price drop of 5%. This drops the IRR to -2.4%. Figure 5 shows the change in
price and quantity of all products, and also shows the change of IRR in the worst, base,
and best case situations. With the best case scenario the company remains bankrupt.
120% Worst
Base
Best
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Quantity Price IRR
-20%
Contingency plans:
It is important for The Bakery to have contingency planning in place to reduce any risks.
The biggest problem with the financials of the business plan is that there is no money
being made on any of the major products. If price of bread decreases, the bakery will
have to either increase sales to a break even level, or the bakery would have to find a way
to decrease fixed costs. Methods that the bakery would employ to increase sales include
adding an additional stall at the Saskatoon farmers market, and during the winter they
could become involved in various craft sales throughout the province. This would
decrease the fixed costs per unit because the fixed costs would be spread out over more
total units.
If sales are greater than expected new staff will have to be hired and additional equipment
will be required. Table 17 shows the current plant capacity.
Currently, the bakery is infeasible and bankrupt, so costs would have to be cut in
numerous places in order for the business to be profitable.
6.0 Appendices:
Section 2.4 of the act states that labels must be bilingual with the exception of when the
local products are sold in a local area in which one of the official languages is the mother
tongue of less than 10% of the residents. This allows the bakery to label their products
only in English.
Section 2.7 states that the name and address of the party who is responsible for
manufacturing and or packaging the product must be declared.
Section 2.8 states that the list of ingredients must be shown by their common name on the
package in descending order of the portion by weight as determined before they are
combined to make the food. One exception of this that will apply to the bakery is that
individually wrapped goods that are sold in the coffee shop portion of the store. Also, the
bakery must declare any foods that may cause serious allergic reactions that are present at
the site of production even if they are not an ingredient of the food.
Section 4.7 of the act states that in order to claim that the product is natural, no vitamins,
mineral nutrients, artificial flavoring agents, or food additives may be added. It also
means that there is no removal of, or change of any of its constituents.
HACCP is a program that is based on seven principles that are aimed at identifying the
hazards involved in food production. These seven principles are
1. Identifying the hazards and listing preventative measures to control them
2. Determining the critical control points (CCP)
3. Establishing limits at each CCP
4. Establishing procedures to monitor CPP
5. Establishing the corrective action that will be taken in case there is a deviation
from the CPP
6. Establishing procedures to verify that they systems are working correctly
7. Establishing effective record keeping for the program
Saskatoon, SK Farm
Money Spent on: 20 Km Radius of the Bakery
Total Expenditure Total Expenditure Total Expenditure
Expenditure per Expenditure per household Expenditure per household
household
All Bakery & cereal
products $72,273,560 $758 $22,440 $623 $204,230 $608
All Fresh bakery
products $44,242,930 $464 $11,840 $329 $109,496 $326
Bread $14,509,550 $152 $4,320 $120 $40,478 $121
Unsweetened rolls
and buns $7,577,840 $79 $1,780 $49 $16,366 $49
Cookies and sweet
biscuits $6,753,180 $71 $1,340 $37 $12,506 $37
Muffins $1,063,040 $11 $140 $4 $1,293 $4
Dessert pies, cakes
& other pastries $6,543,660 $69 $1,400 $39 $12,810 $38
Melfort Wakaw
Money Spent on:
Total Expenditure Total Expenditure
Expenditure per household Expenditure per household
All Bakery & cereal products $1,192,000 $556 $202,180 $511
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<http://www.siast.sk.ca/virtualcampus/educationtraining/hospitality/foodservice.h
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