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To cite this article: S. A. Akdağ & Ö. Güler (2010) Wind Characteristics Analyses and
Determination of Appropriate Wind Turbine for Amasra—Black Sea Region, Turkey, International
Journal of Green Energy, 7:4, 422-433, DOI: 10.1080/15435075.2010.493819
In this study, wind characteristics of Amasra were analyzed with hourly wind data collected
between 1997 and 2006. Wind characteristics such as monthly average mean speeds, power
densities, turbulence intensities, maximum gust, and prevailing wind directions were
identified. Weibull distribution model was used to determine energy output of thirty
commercial wind turbines ranging from 335 to 3000 kW. Estimated mean capacity factors
were calculated between 26.8% and 43.9%.
INTRODUCTION
Electricity has played a key role in the living quality of people, industrialization, and
development because it is the input to nearly all products. Like many developing countries,
electricity consumption of Turkey increases considerably because of industrialization
activities, rapid urbanization, increase in the living standards, population, and economic
growth. Installed electrical power capacity of Turkey was 41,802.6 MW and the electrical
energy generation was 198.32 TWh in 2008 (Energy Market Regulatory Authority 2009a).
Turkey’s energy source does not meet her energy demand, and therefore it has been
purchasing energy from foreign countries. According to the statistics of 2007, share of
indigenous primary energy source was only 25.5% (Ministry of Energy and Natural
Resources 2009). Since most part of the energy was imported, tiny increase in energy
prices strongly affects economy. It is vital for Turkey to supply reliable and sustainable
energy from her indigenous renewable energy sources such as hydro and wind.
Wind energy is one of the most promising renewable energy sources in Turkey. Wind
Energy Potential Atlas of Turkey (REPA) was prepared by using satellite data and
numerical weather prediction methodologies in 2006. According to the REPA (Wind
Energy Potential Atlas), wind energy potential at 50 m height above the ground in land
regions was calculated to be 131,756 MW, which is equivalent to the wind power density
larger than 300 W/m2 (Malkoç 2007). Therefore, wind energy can significantly contribute
to decreasing dependency of imported fuels, increasing self-sufficiency, and improving
422
WIND CHARACTERISTICS AND WIND TURBINE ANALYSES 423
WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION
Several distribution models have been proposed for wind energy studies. Weibull
distribution model was the most commonly used model for wind energy potential assess-
ment. Probability density function of Weibull distribution can be expressed as
k vk1 ðv=cÞk
f ðv Þ ¼ e ; (1)
c c
where v is wind speed, f ðvÞ is the probability of observing wind speed, k is the nondimen-
sional shape parameter, and c is the scale parameter with the same unit of wind speed. The
cumulative probability function of Weibull distribution can be expressed as
k
F ðvÞ ¼ 1 eðv=cÞ : (2)
Mean wind speed and power density value of Weibull distribution can be calculated
as follows:
1
vwm ¼c 1þ ; (3)
k
1 3
Pw ¼ rc3 1 þ ; (4)
2 k
Table 1 Weibull parameters, mean speeds, power densities, and error analysis results.
Months k C (m/s) vwm (m/s) vtsm (m/s) Pw (W/m2) Pts (W/m2) R2 RMSE
Weibull distribution’s goodness of fit was evaluated according to the R2 and root
mean square error (RMSE) error analysis and differences of power densities derived from
Weibull distribution and time series to check the suitability of proposed distribution. Table
1 shows the monthly and annual base Weibull parameters, mean speeds, power densities
with R2, and RMSE results. As can be seen from Table 1, monthly value of R2 changes
between 0.9151 and 0.9815 and RMSE ranged from 0.0058 to 0.0166. Annual value of R2
and RMSE are 0.9560 and 0.009906, respectively. Cumulative distribution for observed
and Weibull distribution are shown in Figure 1.
Figure 2 shows the differences of power densities derived from the Weibull distribution
and observed time series. According to the observed time series, the maximum time series
power density was obtained for December and it was 343.154 W/m2, minimum was 152.409
W/m2 for June. Similarly, maximum Weibull power density was calculated for December and
Weibull Distribution
0.8
Cumulative frequency distribution
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
v
4
2
0
–2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
–4
Error (%)
–6
–8
–10
–12
–14
–16
–18
Months
it was 326.103 W/m2 and minimum was 143.959 W/m2 for June. Yearly average mean power
density of observed time series and Weibull distribution was 231.261 and 221.41 W/m2,
respectively. Power density error analysis was carried out using the following:
Pw Pts
Errorð%Þ ¼ ; (5)
Pts
where Pts is the power density calculated from the time series.
Hourly, monthly, and yearly average wind speeds and power densities have been
calculated for various wind turbine hub heights. Mean wind speeds of monthly observed
time series and Weibull distribution parameters and turbulence intensity are presented in
Table 2 at 50 m above the ground.
Hourly variation of the mean wind speed and power density at 10 m above ground
level is presented in Figure 3. It is also clear from this figure that wind blows more severely
between 10:00 and 19:00 h. Maximum mean wind speed reached to 6.15 m/s. Differences
between minimum and maximum wind speed was not higher than 30% and there were no
426 AKDAĞ AND GÜLER
7 450
Power Density Wind Speed
6 400
Mean Wind Speed (m/s)
considerable wind speed differences. For this reason, it can be regarded as diurnal reg-
ularity. Hourly mean wind speed decreases sharply after 16:00 h. Hourly variation of mean
power density has nearly same trend with wind speed variation.
Figure 4 shows annual variations of observed mean wind speed. Maximum annual
mean wind speed occurred in 2001, minimum was in 2003, and they were 5.53 and 4.59 m/s,
respectively. Mean wind speed for ten-year observed data was 5.05 m/s and maximum wind
speed in this period was 28.8 m/s.
Mean wind speeds and power densities according to the directions are vital for wind
turbine sitting. Table 3 shows mean wind speeds, power densities, and frequencies of these
directions at 10 m above ground level. Prevailing wind direction was found to be S with
17.44% frequency, but E wind direction was also dominant. Furthermore, the value of
highest mean wind speed and power density for E wind direction was 4.87 m/s and 570.36
W/m2, respectively. It is interesting to note that if mean wind speed is higher for one
direction, it does not mean that it has higher power density. For instance, mean wind speeds
in NE and ESE directions were 4.79 and 4.54 m/s, but their power densities were 169.46 and
206.41 W/m2, respectively. As stated earlier, wind speed distribution is vital for wind
WIND CHARACTERISTICS AND WIND TURBINE ANALYSES 427
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Years
energy applications. So, mean wind speed, power density, and frequency distribution are
important to locate wind turbines. Optimum direction to produce more energy can be
determined using these parameters. In other word, not only the frequency of wind direction
is crucial to place wind turbines but also mean wind speed, power density, and direction of
wind speed distribution are important.
suitable wind turbine for one region is costly. For this reason, it is more convenient to select
suitable wind turbine among commercial ones. In this study, energy output analysis was
carried out for thirty commercial wind turbines. Cut in, rated, and cut out wind speeds of
wind turbines are generally change between 2 and 4, 13 and 14, and 21 and 25 m/s,
respectively. Detailed information about technical data of wind turbines can be obtained
from DeWind (2008), ENERCON (2008), Gamesa (2008), GE Power (2008), Nordex
(2008), Suzlon (2008), VESTAS (2008), and WASP (2008).
Selected wind turbines are divided into three groups, which are lower than 1000 kW,
between 1000 and 2000 kW, and greater than 2000 kW. Monthly and annual capacity
factors were calculated using Weibull distribution and Wasp Turbine Editor Software.
Results of the calculations are listed in Tables 4–6.
In the first group, the largest calculated annually capacity factor was 0.415 and the
maximum monthly capacity factor was 0.509 in February at 75 m hub height for Suzlon
S64/950. While hub height decreased from 75 to 65 m, capacity factor decreased from
0.415 to 0.402. In other words, energy output decreased 108,186 kWh yearly. When hub
height of turbine increased from 55 to 65 m, capacity factor increased to 0.016, which was
equivalent to 133,152 kWh yearly estimated energy output. Variation of energy output per
meter was related with the turbine power curves and wind distribution of the region.
In the second group, Vestas V90 1800 kW at 95-m hub height had the largest annually
capacity factor with 0.439. The maximum monthly capacity factor was obtained as 0.533 in
February for the same turbine with the same hub height. While hub height decreased from
95 to 80 m, capacity factor decrease from 0.439 to 0.423, which was equivalent to 252,288
kWh yearly estimated energy output.
In the third group, the largest annual capacity factor was 0.426 at 100 m hub height
for Gamese G90 2000 kW wind turbine. The maximum monthly capacity factor calculated
as 0.519 in February for the same turbine with same hub height. While hub height decreased
from 100 to 80 m, capacity factor decreased from 0.426 to 0.407, which was equivalent to
333,880 kWh yearly estimated energy output.
Wind turbine’s kilowatt price changes according to the manufacturer, location, and size
range. Ultimate price of wind turbines is determined according to the negotiation between
client and manufacturer (Pallabazzer 2004a). Besides, it is difficult to obtain a price because
of market conditions. For this reason, no economic analysis is carried out in this study.
CONCLUSION
Wind energy potential of Amasra was neglected and no wind farm has been installed.
However, this study shows that there is significant wind energy potential. Monthly average
mean wind speeds varied between 4.34 and 5.94 m/s at 10 m above the ground level. Yearly
mean wind speeds changed from 4.59 to 5.53 m/s. Mean wind speed was 5.05 m/s for ten-
year data. Monthly mean power densities were between 152.41 and 286.63 W/m2. Power
density was 231.26 W/m2 and maximum wind speed was 28.8 m/s for ten-year data.
Prevailing wind direction was S with 17.44% frequency, but E direction was also dominant.
As a result of calculations, wind turbines capacity factors based on ten year changed
between 0.268 and 0.439. World’s estimated mean capacity factor is 0.20. For this reason,
installation of wind farm in Amasra will be very profitable.
Energy output of wind turbine not only depends on mean wind speed but also power
density, shape of wind distribution, and wind turbine’s power curve. In conclusion, even if a
Table 4 Monthly and annual capacity factors.
Turbine Hub
Turbine Turbine power height
manufacturers model (kW) (m) Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Annual
ENERCON E33 335 50 0.405 0.433 0.406 0.318 0.280 0.273 0.306 0.317 0.308 0.362 0.361 0.428 0.347
E48 800 50 0.388 0.414 0.389 0.302 0.266 0.258 0.291 0.302 0.291 0.345 0.344 0.410 0.330
55 0.397 0.424 0.398 0.311 0.273 0.267 0.299 0.310 0.301 0.354 0.353 0.419 0.339
60 0.406 0.433 0.406 0.319 0.280 0.274 0.306 0.318 0.309 0.362 0.361 0.427 0.347
70 0.421 0.449 0.421 0.333 0.293 0.288 0.320 0.332 0.325 0.377 0.376 0.441 0.361
75 0.428 0.456 0.427 0.340 0.298 0.294 0.326 0.338 0.332 0.383 0.382 0.447 0.368
E53 800 60 0.438 0.467 0.438 0.348 0.306 0.302 0.334 0.347 0.340 0.393 0.392 0.459 0.377
65 0.446 0.475 0.446 0.356 0.313 0.309 0.341 0.354 0.348 0.400 0.399 0.466 0.385
70 0.453 0.483 0.453 0.363 0.319 0.316 0.348 0.361 0.356 0.407 0.406 0.473 0.391
Gamesa G52-850 850 45 0.368 0.394 0.369 0.284 0.249 0.241 0.273 0.284 0.272 0.327 0.325 0.391 0.312
50 0.378 0.405 0.379 0.294 0.257 0.250 0.282 0.293 0.282 0.337 0.335 0.401 0.321
55 0.388 0.415 0.389 0.302 0.265 0.258 0.290 0.302 0.292 0.345 0.344 0.410 0.330
429
65 0.404 0.432 0.405 0.318 0.278 0.273 0.305 0.317 0.308 0.361 0.360 0.425 0.346
75 0.418 0.446 0.418 0.331 0.290 0.286 0.317 0.329 0.323 0.374 0.373 0.438 0.359
G58-850 850 45 0.408 0.436 0.409 0.320 0.281 0.274 0.307 0.319 0.309 0.364 0.363 0.431 0.349
55 0.429 0.457 0.429 0.339 0.297 0.292 0.325 0.337 0.330 0.383 0.382 0.450 0.368
60 0.437 0.466 0.437 0.347 0.304 0.300 0.333 0.345 0.339 0.391 0.391 0.458 0.376
65 0.445 0.474 0.445 0.354 0.311 0.308 0.340 0.353 0.347 0.399 0.398 0.465 0.383
70 0.452 0.482 0.452 0.361 0.317 0.315 0.346 0.360 0.355 0.406 0.405 0.471 0.390
Vestas V52850 850 45 0.363 0.388 0.364 0.280 0.246 0.238 0.269 0.280 0.268 0.322 0.321 0.386 0.308
50 0.373 0.399 0.374 0.290 0.254 0.247 0.278 0.289 0.279 0.332 0.331 0.396 0.317
55 0.383 0.409 0.383 0.298 0.262 0.255 0.286 0.298 0.288 0.341 0.339 0.405 0.326
65 0.399 0.426 0.399 0.313 0.275 0.269 0.301 0.312 0.304 0.356 0.355 0.420 0.341
75 0.413 0.440 0.413 0.326 0.286 0.282 0.313 0.325 0.318 0.369 0.368 0.432 0.354
ENERCON E44 900 45 0.318 0.341 0.320 0.242 0.213 0.203 0.233 0.242 0.229 0.282 0.279 0.341 0.268
55 0.337 0.362 0.339 0.259 0.228 0.219 0.249 0.259 0.247 0.299 0.298 0.360 0.285
Suzlon S.64/950 950 55 0.449 0.479 0.449 0.357 0.313 0.309 0.342 0.355 0.349 0.402 0.402 0.470 0.386
65 0.466 0.495 0.465 0.373 0.328 0.325 0.357 0.371 0.367 0.418 0.418 0.485 0.402
75 0.479 0.509 0.478 0.386 0.340 0.339 0.370 0.384 0.382 0.431 0.431 0.497 0.415
Table 5 Monthly and annual capacity factors.
General Electric GEV HP 1000 60 0.417 0.445 0.417 0.330 0.290 0.285 0.316 0.329 0.321 0.373 0.372 0.438 0.358
70 0.432 0.460 0.431 0.344 0.302 0.299 0.330 0.342 0.336 0.387 0.386 0.451 0.372
DeWind D6 1250 65 0.388 0.414 0.387 0.306 0.267 0.263 0.292 0.304 0.298 0.346 0.345 0.405 0.332
Suzlon S.64/1250 1250 55 0.379 0.406 0.380 0.294 0.258 0.250 0.282 0.293 0.283 0.337 0.335 0.401 0.322
65 0.395 0.423 0.396 0.309 0.271 0.265 0.297 0.308 0.300 0.352 0.351 0.416 0.337
75 0.409 0.437 0.409 0.322 0.282 0.278 0.309 0.321 0.314 0.365 0.364 0.429 0.350
S.66/1250 1250 55 0.387 0.414 0.387 0.301 0.264 0.257 0.289 0.300 0.290 0.344 0.342 0.409 0.329
65 0.403 0.431 0.403 0.316 0.277 0.272 0.303 0.315 0.307 0.360 0.358 0.424 0.344
75 0.417 0.445 0.417 0.329 0.289 0.285 0.316 0.328 0.321 0.373 0.371 0.437 0.357
430
Nortex S70/1500 1500 65 0.403 0.431 0.403 0.315 0.275 0.269 0.302 0.314 0.305 0.358 0.357 0.424 0.343
80 0.423 0.451 0.422 0.334 0.292 0.288 0.320 0.332 0.326 0.377 0.377 0.442 0.362
85 0.429 0.457 0.428 0.339 0.297 0.294 0.325 0.338 0.332 0.383 0.382 0.447 0.368
90 0.434 0.463 0.433 0.345 0.302 0.299 0.330 0.343 0.338 0.388 0.388 0.452 0.373
100 0.444 0.473 0.442 0.354 0.310 0.308 0.339 0.352 0.349 0.397 0.397 0.461 0.382
S77/1500 1500 65 0.427 0.456 0.427 0.338 0.296 0.292 0.324 0.337 0.330 0.382 0.381 0.448 0.367
80 0.447 0.477 0.447 0.357 0.313 0.311 0.342 0.355 0.351 0.401 0.401 0.466 0.386
85 0.453 0.482 0.452 0.363 0.318 0.316 0.347 0.361 0.357 0.407 0.406 0.471 0.391
90 0.458 0.488 0.457 0.368 0.323 0.322 0.352 0.366 0.363 0.412 0.411 0.476 0.396
100 0.468 0.497 0.466 0.378 0.331 0.331 0.361 0.375 0.374 0.040 0.421 0.484 0.406
Vestas V82-1650 1650 80 0.440 0.467 0.436 0.361 0.316 0.320 0.344 0.358 0.362 0.397 0.398 0.449 0.384
V90-1800 1800 80 0.487 0.518 0.486 0.394 0.346 0.347 0.377 0.392 0.391 0.439 0.439 0.505 0.423
95 0.503 0.533 0.501 0.410 0.361 0.363 0.392 0.407 0.409 0.454 0.455 0.518 0.439
Table 6 Monthly and annual capacity factors.
Manufacturer Turbine model Power (kW) Hub height (m) Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Annual
DeWind D8.2 2000 80 0.420 0.449 0.420 0.333 0.291 0.288 0.319 0.331 0.325 0.376 0.375 0.440 0.361
100 0.441 0.470 0.440 0.353 0.309 0.308 0.338 0.351 0.348 0.395 0.395 0.458 0.380
ENERCON E82 2000 80 0.465 0.495 0.464 0.372 0.327 0.325 0.357 0.370 0.366 0.417 0.417 0.484 0.401
90 0.476 0.506 0.475 0.383 0.337 0.336 0.367 0.381 0.379 0.428 0.428 0.494 0.412
100 0.486 0.516 0.484 0.393 0.346 0.346 0.376 0.391 0.390 0.437 0.437 0.502 0.422
Gamesa G80-2.0 2000 60 0.390 0.417 0.390 0.304 0.267 0.261 0.292 0.304 0.294 0.347 0.346 0.411 0.332
65 0.398 0.425 0.398 0.312 0.273 0.268 0.299 0.311 0.302 0.355 0.353 0.419 0.340
80 0.418 0.446 0.417 0.331 0.290 0.286 0.317 0.329 0.323 0.373 0.373 0.037 0.358
100 0.438 0.467 0.437 0.351 0.307 0.306 0.336 0.349 0.345 0.393 0.393 0.455 0.378
G83-2.0 2000 65 0.408 0.436 0.408 0.320 0.281 0.275 0.307 0.319 0.311 0.364 0.363 0.429 0.349
431
80 0.428 0.456 0.427 0.339 0.297 0.294 0.325 0.338 0.332 0.383 0.382 0.447 0.367
G87-2.0 2000 65 0.432 0.461 0.432 0.343 0.300 0.296 0.328 0.341 0.335 0.387 0.386 0.452 0.371
80 0.452 0.481 0.451 0.362 0.317 0.315 0.346 0.360 0.356 0.406 0.405 0.470 0.390
100 0.472 0.502 0.471 0.382 0.335 0.336 0.366 0.380 0.379 0.425 0.425 0.488 0.410
G90-2.0 2000 80 0.469 0.499 0.468 0.378 0.332 0.331 0.362 0.376 0.373 0.422 0.422 0.487 0.407
100 0.489 0.519 0.487 0.398 0.351 0.352 0.381 0.396 0.396 0.442 0.442 0.505 0.426
Vestas V80-2000 2000 60 0.390 0.417 0.390 0.304 0.267 0.261 0.292 0.304 0.294 0.347 0.346 0.411 0.332
70 0.405 0.432 0.405 0.318 0.279 0.274 0.305 0.317 0.310 0.361 0.360 0.425 0.346
80 0.418 0.446 0.417 0.331 0.290 0.286 0.317 0.329 0.323 0.373 0.373 0.437 0.358
100 0.438 0.467 0.437 0.351 0.307 0.306 0.336 0.349 0.345 0.393 0.393 0.455 0.378
V90-2000 2000 80 0.468 0.498 0.467 0.376 0.330 0.329 0.360 0.374 0.371 0.421 0.420 0.486 0.405
95 0.484 0.514 0.482 0.392 0.344 0.345 0.375 0.390 0.389 0.436 0.436 0.500 0.420
(Continued)
Table 6 (Continued).
Manufacturer Turbine model Power (kW) Hub height (m) Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Annual
Suzlon S88/2100 2100 80 0.441 0.470 0.440 0.351 0.307 0.304 0.336 0.349 0.344 0.395 0.394 0.460 0.379
ENERCON E70 2300 70 0.367 0.392 0.367 0.285 0.250 0.243 0.273 0.284 0.274 0.326 0.325 0.388 0.312
75 0.373 0.399 0.374 0.291 0.255 0.248 0.279 0.290 0.281 0.332 0.331 0.394 0.318
80 0.379 0.406 0.380 0.296 0.260 0.254 0.284 0.296 0.287 0.338 0.337 0.399 0.318
90 0.390 0.417 0.390 0.307 0.269 0.264 0.294 0.306 0.298 0.348 0.347 0.409 0.334
100 0.400 0.427 0.399 0.316 0.277 0.273 0.303 0.315 0.308 0.357 0.356 0.418 0.343
Nortex N90/2300 2300 60 0.409 0.437 0.409 0.321 0.281 0.275 0.308 0.320 0.311 0.365 0.364 0.430 0.349
432
70 0.424 0.453 0.424 0.335 0.294 0.289 0.321 0.334 0.327 0.379 0.378 0.444 0.364
80 0.437 0.466 0.436 0.347 0.304 0.301 0.333 0.346 0.341 0.391 0.391 0.456 0.376
100 0.458 0.487 0.456 0.368 0.322 0.322 0.352 0.366 0.363 0.411 0.411 0.474 0.396
N100/2500 2500 100 0.449 0.475 0.445 0.371 0.324 0.331 0.353 0.367 0.375 0.406 0.407 0.455 0.393
N80/2500 2500 60 0.346 0.371 0.347 0.266 0.232 0.224 0.255 0.265 0.253 0.307 0.305 0.368 0.292
70 0.361 0.387 0.362 0.279 0.244 0.237 0.268 0.278 0.268 0.320 0.319 0.382 0.306
80 0.374 0.400 0.374 0.291 0.254 0.248 0.279 0.290 0.281 0.332 0.331 0.394 0.318
100 0.394 0.422 0.394 0.310 0.271 0.267 0.207 0.309 0.303 0.352 0.351 0.413 0.337
Vestas V90-3000 3000 80 0.391 0.418 0.391 0.307 0.269 0.263 0.294 0.306 0.298 0.349 0.348 0.411 0.334
WIND CHARACTERISTICS AND WIND TURBINE ANALYSES 433
region has high mean wind speed and power density, it is not a universal rule that this
location has higher energy output.
NOMENCLATURE
f ðvÞ probability of observing wind speed
v wind speed
k Weibull shape parameter
c Weibull scale parameter
FðvÞ cumulative probability function
vwm Weibull distribution mean wind speed
Pw Weibull power density
Gamma function
r air density
vtsm time series mean wind speed
Pts time series mean power density
h height
a power law coefficient
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