BIAS 3

Perceptual
Contrast
Lesson

Contrast principle affects

the way we see the
difference between two
things that are presented
one after the other
Lesson

If the second item is fairly

different from the first we
will see it as more different
than it really is
Example
Example
https://youtu.be/xOhb4LwAaJk
Example
Example
$15 $15 $15 $15 $15 $95 $95 $150
Example
Example
Example
Averaging Down Can Be Very Harmful
Example
Beware Of Little
Expenses For A Small
Leak Will Sink A
Great Ship
 Tax-Paying Investors
Will Realize A Far, Far Greater Sum
From A Single Investment That
Compounds Internally At A Given
Rate Than From A Succession Of
Investments Compounding At The
Same Rate.
Source: https://twitter.com/
Sanjay__Bakshi/status/
508497166717825024
Lesson

If the second item is fairly

similar to the first we will
fail to notice the change
Cognition, Misled By
Tiny Changes
Involving Low
Contrast, Will Often
Miss A Trend That Is
Destiny.
If You Put A Frog In Boiling
Hot Water, It Will Instantly
Jump Out And Escape. But If You
Put A Frog In Lukewarm Water
And Slowly Boil It, It Will
Slowly Boil To Death!Text
Example
Example
Jerome S. Bruner and Mary C. Potter, “Interference in Visual
Recognition,” Science,Vol.
144 (1964), pp. 424-25.
Lesson

There are many boiling

frogs in business and
investing
Example
Exponential
Changes
Exponential Growth Is Deceptive. It
Starts Out Almost Imperceptibly And Then
Explodes With Unexpected Fury—
Unexpected, That Is, If One Does Not Take
Care To Follow Its Trajectory.
Example
Competitive
Threats
Lesson

People who are going to

be affected by change will
disregard it
Source: https://twitter.com/ValaAfshar/status/609946528132763648
Source: https://twitter.com/ValaAfshar/status/609949651869921280
Lesson

Moral Sewer
 Studies of ethical
decision making
confirm that people
are more willing to
accept ethical lapses
when they occur in
several small steps
than when they occur
in one large step
Max Bazerman
 Studies of ethical
decision making
confirm that people
are more willing to
accept ethical lapses
when they occur in
several small steps
than when they occur
in one large step
Max Bazerman
Example
Emerging Moats
A Business Should Be
Viewed As An
Unfolding Movie, Not
As A Still Photograph.
Example
Expense Creep
Example
Throwing Good
Money After bad
Lesson

There are many boiling

frogs in personal life
Example
Learning via Self
Improvement
 I constantly see people rise in life who are not the smartest, sometimes
not even the most diligent, but they are learning machines. They go to bed
every night a little wiser than they were when they got up and boy does
that help, particularly when you have a long run ahead of you.
 If you want to get good at
something which is
competitive, you have to think
about it and practice a lot.You
have to keep learning because
world keeps changing and
competitors keep learning.You
have to go to bed wiser than
you got up. As you try to
master what you are trying to
do – people who do that
almost never fail utterly.Very
few have ever failed with that
approach.You may rise slowly,
but you are sure to rise.
"When you improve a little each day, eventually big things occur. When you improve conditioning a
little each day; eventually you have a big improvement in conditioning. Not tomorrow, not the next
day; but eventually a big gain is made. Don't look for the big, quick improvement. Seek the small
improvement one day at a time. That's the only way it happens-and when it happens, it lasts." -John
Wooden, one of the most successful coaches in the history of college basketball.
Example
Toxic
Relationships
Lesson

Boiling Frog in Persuasion

Lesson

Government can boil

citizens
Lesson

Many phrases associated

with Boiling Frog Syndrome
Examples

Creeping reality
Didn’t see it coming
Change blindness
Slippery slope
This is how it starts
Antidote

Lee Kuan Model

Antidote

Back Out and Look at Big

Picture
Thank You