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To: 1 Horse Guards Road
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United Kingdom
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To: The Chancellor of the Exchequer the Rt Hon Rishi Sunak MP.
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N Regarding: Using Pension Fund Easing to Outgrow Government Debt.
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Friday, 16th October 2020.

I am a macroeconomist and have my own school of economic thought 'Morganist Economics'


which the British government uses extensively. I have been developing a new technique to
stimulate economic growth to attempt to outgrow the increasingly high government debt. I
have enclosed a copy of a paper I have written with this letter entitled, 'The Missed Aspect Of
Macroeconomics - Pension Fund Easing'. The paper presents the opportunity that Pension
Fund Easing offers to the Treasury to boost economic growth to cut government debt to GDP.
I have also enclosed a business proposal offering the opportunity to launch a new Pension
Economic Control Organisation to enable Pension Fund Easing. The business proposal offers
an administrative pension product and a range of commercial pension products. The new use
of pension economic control that started 10 to 15 years ago has already saved the Treasury
billions of pounds every year. The introduction of a Pension Economic Control Organisation
and a new range of original pension products would save and make billions of pounds more.
I have provided a book portfolio that explains the macroeconomic concepts and workings of
using pension economic control, along with other aspects of original macroeconomic work.
The book portfolio is available to the public to be purchased at online bookstores globally to
provide the educational resources to promote the further use of pension economic control. I
have also provided a website containing many internationally published articles, many of
which influenced government policy. I eagerly await your response to my business proposal.
Kind Regards.

Peter James Rhys Morgan.

Website: morganisteconomics.blogspot.co.uk
Copyright © 2020 Peter James Rhys Morgan.
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The Missed Aspect


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Of Macroeconomics.
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Pension Fund Easing.

Increasing Economic Growth Through Pension


Fund Easing To Outgrow The Public Sector
Debt.

All rights reserved. No part of this paper may be reproduced,


stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by
any means, without the prior written permission of the author,
except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical
articles or reviews.

Published in October 2020 by Morganist Economics.

Blog: morganisteconomics.blogspot.com

Email: morganist@mail.com

Copyright © 2020 Peter James Rhys Morgan. I


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Website: morganisteconomics.blogspot.co.uk A R R
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Copyright © 2020 Peter James Rhys Morgan. C A
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Contents Page.
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Executive Statement.

Page 3. Executive Summary.

Articles

Page 4. Pension Fund Easing.

Page 5. Using Pension Fund Easing To Close The Government Spending Deficit And To

Reduce The Overall Government Debt.

Reducing Government Debt As A Percentage Of GDP After The Deficit Has Been
Balanced.

Page 6. Compounded GDP Growth Rate (4%) Per Year.

Page 7. Compounded GDP Growth Rate (3%) Per Year.

Page 8. Compounded GDP Growth Rate (2%) Per Year.

Page 9. Compounded GDP Growth Rate (1%) Per Year.


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Website: morganisteconomics.blogspot.co.uk A R R
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Executive Summary.
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As an independent freelance macroeconomist, who supports cross party interests in an effort


to improve macroeconomic efficiencies, I have provided the following paper, putting forward
the suggestion of a Pension Economic Control Organisation to stimulate additional economic
growth through 'Pension Fund Easing'. Pension Fund Easing directs the placement of pension
scheme contributions and pension fund investments to increase the velocity of transactions
within an economy, to create supplementary economic growth over a specific period of time.

Pension Fund Easing has the potential to increase economic growth by as much as 4 percent
per annum, if this is sustained for prolonged periods of time once the government deficit has
been closed it can reduce government debt to 60 percent of GDP over 13 to 14 years. Even
with a deficit remaining and if lower rates of economic growth are created than the predicted
annual 4 percent of GDP through Pension Fund Easing government debt can still fall to 80
percent of GDP over a twenty year period, if Pension Fund Easing is managed successfully.

The launch of a new Pension Economic Control Organisation can create a new dimension for
macroeconomic control that has been previously missing. The utilisation of 'Pension Fund
Easing' can bring about an additional element of macroeconomic policy to provide supporting
economic growth, which offers the potential to 'Outgrow' the increasingly high government
debt without having to make a single repayment. An increase in economic growth will also
generate an increase in government revenue, which makes debt repayment easier to achieve.

(OBR, 2019).

Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

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Pension Fund Easing (Morgan, 2020).


By Peter Morgan. 15:02 25/07/2020. Published By Morganist Economics.

Pension fund assets make up a large segment of the overall investment market. The size of
the existing pension saving investment asset market provides an opportunity for an innovative
macroeconomic control tool through altering or rearranging how the funds are utilised.

When investments are placed money is transferred to another organisation to spend on the
agreement that the funds are repaid at a later date or a percentage of ownership of the entity is
given to the investor. The use of the funds invested varies from one organisation to another.

Depending on how and when the funds invested are spent the velocity of transactions can be
increased or decreased. The greater the number of transactions in an economy during a period
of time the higher the level of demand generated, more transactions equals more demand.

By selecting organisations that offer a faster or slower investment transaction velocity it is


possible to increase or decrease overall economic demand. The mechanism could also be
used to control excessive aggregate price inflation or depressive aggregate price deflation.

This pension investment fund spending velocity mechanism can be made possible by the
introduction of a pension fund investment 'Requirement'. The use of 'Required' pension fund
investments enables economic control by rearranging pension fund investment composition.

The first option to alter the velocity of transactions through pension fund investment changes
is by managing the movement of investments into and out of an economy. Keeping money in
an economy will increase demand, taking money out of an economy will decrease demand.

The second option to alter the velocity of transactions through pension fund investment is to
invest in entities with faster or slower rates of spending. Usually debt funds such as credit or
bonds spend money faster due to the cost of interest deterring borrowing until the need arises.

The third option to alter the velocity of transactions through pension fund investment is to
invest in fixed or variable return financial assets. Fixed investment returns pay the same set
interest at regular intervals providing a preset income for investors and overall price stability.

There are three options available to control economic growth and aggregate price stability
through a 'Pension Investment Fund Requirement' that determines where or how pension fund
assets are invested. I term this 'Pension Fund Easing', as it is similar to Qualitative Easing.

Qualitative Easing is a tool used by central banks to control the level of economic growth or
overall prices for goods. The technique changes the funds held on a central bank's balance
sheet to impact the level of demand in an economy by switching to more or less risky assets.

Pension Fund Easing could be performed by setting a Requirement for the existing pension
fund assets to be transferred into the appropriate investments or by investing the funds from
new pension contributions into the appropriate investments needed to meet economic targets.

Website: morganisteconomics.blogspot.co.uk
Copyright © 2020 Peter James Rhys Morgan.
5

Using Pension Fund Easing To Close The


Government Spending Deficit And To Reduce
The Overall Government Debt (Morgan, 2020).

By Peter Morgan. 19:28 09/10/20. Published By Morganist Economics.

When government spending exceeds government revenue over a specific period of time the
excess government expenditure is referred to as the government deficit. The government
deficit is only the amount of overspending a government generates over a set period of time,
which is different to the government debt. The government debt is the total amount of debt
the government generated throughout the entire period of time that it began to borrow money.

To be capable of paying off the outstanding government debt the government deficit has to be
closed by increasing government revenue until it surpasses governmental expenditure, when
government income exceeds government spending it is referred to as the government surplus.
Once the government is in surplus the excess income can be used to pay off the outstanding
government debt, this is the traditional method of reducing the total government debt to GDP.

There is another method of reducing the total government debt to GDP that can be achieved
without having to pay off any of the outstanding government debts. Increasing economic
growth will reduce the amount of total government debt as a percentage of GDP, reducing the
relative amount of money the government has to pay back from future revenue. The increase
in GDP also boosts future governmental revenue streams making it easier to pay the debt off.

By generating further economic growth it is possible to reduce the relative amount of total
government debt to the overall level of economic output, which is effectively outgrowing the
government debt. Even if the government deficit is not closed if the rate of economic growth
exceeds the rate of government borrowing the amount of total government debt will decrease
in relation to GDP, no debt has to be repaid but a higher rate of economic growth is required.

The government can in effect continue to borrow money, maintaining a deficit, but reduce the
total amount of government debt in relation to GDP, as long as the rate of economic growth is
greater than the deficit. As long as economic growth is higher than the deficit during the same
period of time overall government debt will fall as a percentage of GDP. Attaining economic
growth over prolonged periods of time can dramatically reduce the government debt to GDP.

Pension Fund Easing has the ability to stimulate additional economic growth by increasing
the velocity of transactions during a specific period of time, through the superior placement
of the money invested in pension funds. By increasing economic growth for sustained periods
of time even by small percentages it is possible to reduce government debt to GDP massively.
Even if the government has a deficit if it is exceeded by growth it will reduce debt to GDP.

Although it is possible to reduce the percentage of government debt to GDP while there is
still a government deficit, as long as economic growth is greater than the shortfall, it is best to
get rid of the deficit first to slash the amount of government debt through sustained economic
growth. It might be possible to generate a further 4% of economic growth per year from the
use of 'Pension Fund Easing', that will help to close the deficit and pay off government debt.

Website: morganisteconomics.blogspot.co.uk
Copyright © 2020 Peter James Rhys Morgan.
6

Reducing Government Debt As A Percentage Of GDP After The


Deficit Has Been Balanced.
The mathematical projections below are based on an economic growth rate of 4% per year
that is compounded annually from the initial rate of GDP, which is equal to the total amount
of government debt at 100% of GDP at the starting point of the projected model. The figures
assume there is no further increase in the amount of government debt from the starting point
of the calculations and that there is no deficit at the time the projected growth model initiates.

Year Exc. Year GDP Compounded GDP Growth Rate (4%) Government Debt Percentage To GDP
  1 100.00 4.00 100.00
1 2 104.00 4.16 96.15
2 3 108.16 4.33 92.46
3 4 112.49 4.50 88.90
4 5 116.99 4.68 85.48
5 6 121.67 4.87 82.19
6 7 126.53 5.06 79.03
7 8 131.59 5.26 75.99
8 9 136.86 5.47 73.07
9 10 142.33 5.69 70.26
10 11 148.02 5.92 67.56
11 12 153.95 6.16 64.96
12 13 160.10 6.40 62.46
13 14 166.51 6.66 60.06
14 15 173.17 6.93 57.75
15 16 180.09 7.20 55.53
16 17 187.30 7.49 53.39
17 18 194.79 7.79 51.34
18 19 202.58 8.10 49.36
19 20 210.68 8.43 47.46
20 21 219.11   45.64
Table 1.

Table 1 Shows the projected economic growth rates over a twenty year period for an annually
sustained GDP growth rate of 4%. The projections assume the government's spending deficit
has been balanced and neutral throughout the calculations. The model shows that if the deficit
is balanced and the 4% GDP growth rate is achieved over consecutive years the outstanding
public debt to GDP rate would fall to 70% of GDP in 9 - 10 years, purely from GDP growth.

If the 4% rate of GDP growth is sustained throughout the projected period the outstanding
public debt to GDP rate would fall to 60% of GDP in 13 - 14 years, purely from GDP growth.
The current public debt to GDP rate would drop to 50% of GDP if the 4% GDP growth rate is
sustained over a 18 - 19 year period, purely from GDP growth. Although a 4% GDP growth
rate is high, if it can be achieved the level of public debt could be slashed in a 10 year period.

Website: morganisteconomics.blogspot.co.uk
Copyright © 2020 Peter James Rhys Morgan.
7

The mathematical projections below are based on an economic growth rate of 3% per year
that is compounded annually from the initial rate of GDP, which is equal to the total amount
of government debt at 100% of GDP at the starting point of the projected model. The figures
assume there is no further increase in the amount of government debt from the starting point
of the calculations and that there is no deficit at the time the projected growth model initiates.

Year Exc. Year GDP Compounded GDP Growth Rate (3%) Government Debt Percentage To GDP
  1 100.00 3.00 100.00
1 2 103.00 3.09 97.09
2 3 106.09 3.18 94.26
3 4 109.27 3.28 91.51
4 5 112.55 3.38 88.85
5 6 115.93 3.48 86.26
6 7 119.41 3.58 83.75
7 8 122.99 3.69 81.31
8 9 126.68 3.80 78.94
9 10 130.48 3.91 76.64
10 11 134.39 4.03 74.41
11 12 138.42 4.15 72.24
12 13 142.58 4.28 70.14
13 14 146.85 4.41 68.10
14 15 151.26 4.54 66.11
15 16 155.80 4.67 64.19
16 17 160.47 4.81 62.32
17 18 165.28 4.96 60.50
18 19 170.24 5.11 58.74
19 20 175.35 5.26 57.03
20 21 180.61   55.37
Table 2.

Table 2 Shows the projected economic growth rates over a twenty year period for an annually
sustained GDP growth rate of 3%. The projections assume the government's spending deficit
has been balanced and neutral throughout the calculations. The model shows that if the deficit
is balanced and the 3% GDP growth rate is achieved over consecutive years the outstanding
public debt to GDP rate would fall to 70% of GDP in 12 - 13 years, purely from GDP growth.

If the 3% rate of GDP growth is sustained throughout the projected period the outstanding
public debt to GDP rate would fall to 60% of GDP in 17 - 18 years, purely from GDP growth.
The current public debt to GDP rate would drop to 55% of GDP if the 3% GDP growth rate is
sustained over a 20 - 21 year period, purely from GDP growth. Although a 3% GDP growth
rate is high, if it can be achieved the level of public debt could be slashed in a 13 year period.

Website: morganisteconomics.blogspot.co.uk
Copyright © 2020 Peter James Rhys Morgan.
8

The mathematical projections below are based on an economic growth rate of 2% per year
that is compounded annually from the initial rate of GDP, which is equal to the total amount
of government debt at 100% of GDP at the starting point of the projected model. The figures
assume there is no further increase in the amount of government debt from the starting point
of the calculations and that there is no deficit at the time the projected growth model initiates.

Year Exc. Year GDP Compounded GDP Growth Rate (2%) Government Debt Percentage To GDP
  1 100.00 2.00 100.00
1 2 102.00 2.04 98.04
2 3 104.04 2.08 96.12
3 4 106.12 2.12 94.23
4 5 108.24 2.16 92.38
5 6 110.41 2.21 90.57
6 7 112.62 2.25 88.80
7 8 114.87 2.30 87.06
8 9 117.17 2.34 85.35
9 10 119.51 2.39 83.68
10 11 121.90 2.44 82.03
11 12 124.34 2.49 80.43
12 13 126.82 2.54 78.85
13 14 129.36 2.59 77.30
14 15 131.95 2.64 75.79
15 16 134.59 2.69 74.30
16 17 137.28 2.75 72.84
17 18 140.02 2.80 71.42
18 19 142.82 2.86 70.02
19 20 145.68 2.91 68.64
20 21 148.59   67.30
Table 3.

Table 3 Shows the projected economic growth rates over a twenty year period for an annually
sustained GDP growth rate of 2%. The projections assume the government's spending deficit
has been balanced and neutral throughout the calculations. The model shows that if the deficit
is balanced and the 2% GDP growth rate is achieved over consecutive years the outstanding
public debt to GDP rate would fall to 80% of GDP in 11 - 12 years, purely from GDP growth.

If the 2% rate of GDP growth is sustained throughout the projected period the outstanding
public debt to GDP rate would fall to 70% of GDP in 18 - 19 years, purely from GDP growth.
The current public debt to GDP rate would drop to 67% of GDP if the 2% GDP growth rate is
sustained over a 20 - 21 year period, purely from GDP growth. A constant 2% GDP growth
rate is likely, its achievement would cut the level of public debt by a fifth in a 12 year period.

Website: morganisteconomics.blogspot.co.uk
Copyright © 2020 Peter James Rhys Morgan.
9

The mathematical projections below are based on an economic growth rate of 1% per year
that is compounded annually from the initial rate of GDP, which is equal to the total amount
of government debt at 100% of GDP at the starting point of the projected model. The figures
assume there is no further increase in the amount of government debt from the starting point
of the calculations and that there is no deficit at the time the projected growth model initiates.

Year Exc. Year GDP Compounded GDP Growth Rate (1%) Government Debt Percentage To GDP
  1 100.00 1.00 100.00
1 2 101.00 1.01 99.01
2 3 102.01 1.02 98.03
3 4 103.03 1.03 97.06
4 5 104.06 1.04 96.10
5 6 105.10 1.05 95.15
6 7 106.15 1.06 94.20
7 8 107.21 1.07 93.27
8 9 108.29 1.08 92.35
9 10 109.37 1.09 91.43
10 11 110.46 1.10 90.53
11 12 111.57 1.12 89.63
12 13 112.68 1.13 88.74
13 14 113.81 1.14 87.87
14 15 114.95 1.15 87.00
15 16 116.10 1.16 86.13
16 17 117.26 1.17 85.28
17 18 118.43 1.18 84.44
18 19 119.61 1.20 83.60
19 20 120.81 1.21 82.77
20 21 122.02   81.95
Table 4.

Table 4 Shows the projected economic growth rates over a twenty year period for an annually
sustained GDP growth rate of 1%. The projections assume the government's spending deficit
has been balanced and neutral throughout the calculations. The model shows that if the deficit
is balanced and the 1% GDP growth rate is achieved over consecutive years the outstanding
public debt to GDP rate would fall to 90% of GDP in 10 - 11 years, purely from GDP growth.

If the 1% rate of GDP growth is sustained throughout the projected period the outstanding
public debt to GDP rate would fall to 85% of GDP in 16 - 17 years, purely from GDP growth.
The current public debt to GDP rate would drop to 82% of GDP if the 1% GDP growth rate is
sustained over a 20 - 21 year period, purely from GDP growth. A constant 1% GDP growth
rate is low and easily achieved, the level of public debt could be reduced in a 11 year period.

Website: morganisteconomics.blogspot.co.uk
Copyright © 2020 Peter James Rhys Morgan.
10

Bibliography

Morgan Peter [Online] // morganisteconomics.blogspot.com. - Morganist Economics, July


25, 2020. - October 14, 2020. - http://morganisteconomics.blogspot.com/2020/07/pension-
fund-easing.html.

Morgan Peter [Online] // morganisteconomics.blogspot.com. - Morganist Economics,


October 09, 2020. - October 14, 2020. -
http://morganisteconomics.blogspot.com/2020/10/using-pension-fund-easing-to-close.html.

OBR Fiscal risks report [Report]. - [s.l.] : Office for Budget Responsibility, 2019.

Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.

Website: morganisteconomics.blogspot.co.uk
Copyright © 2020 Peter James Rhys Morgan.

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