Phase III

Depression (Sucess)
0.85 probability
Phase II
Cost $200
Depression
0.10 probability
Phase III
Cost $40
Depression (Failure)
0.15 probability
Cost $200

Phase III
Weight Loss (Success)
Phase II
0.75 probibility
Weight Loss
Cost $150
0.15 probability
Cost $40
Phase I Phase III
Success Weight Loss (Failure)
0.60 probability 0.25 probibility
Cost $30 Cost $150

Phase III
Depression & Weight Loss
Phase II
0.70 propability
Depression & Weight
Loss Cost $500
Davanrik License
Decision 0.05 probability
Cost $40
Phase I Phase III
Failure Depression Only
0.40 probabiltiy 0.15 probability
Cost $30 Cost $500

Phase III
Phase II
Weight Loss Only
Failure
0.05 probability
0.70 probability
Cost $500
Cost $40
Phase III
Failure
0.10 probability
Cost $500