PROJECT RISK ANALYSIS

IN CONSTRUCTION

Ir.Akhmad Suraji, MT.,PhD.,IPM

 FORMAL DEFINITION (1)
1)  PROBABILITY OF UNDESIRED
CONSEQUENCES,
2)  SERIOUSNESS OF MAXIMUM POSSIBLE
UNDESIRED CONSEQUENCE,
3)  MULTI ATTRIBUTE WEIGHTED SUM OF
COMPONENT OF POSSIBLE UNDESIRED
CONSEQUENCES,
4)  PROBABILITY VS SERIOUSNESS OF
UNDESIRED CONSEQUENCES OR
EVERAGE EXPECTED LOSS,
 FORMAL DEFINITION (2)
•  FITTED FUNCTION THROUGH GRAPH OF
POINTS RELATING PROBABILITY TO EXTENT
OF UNDESIRED CONSEQUENCES
•  SEMIVARIANCE OF POSSIBLE UNDESIRED
CONSEQUENCES ABOUT THEIR AVERAGE,
•  VARIANCE OF ALL POSSIBLE
CONSEQUENCES ABOUT MEAN EXPECTED
CONSEQUENCES,
 FORMAL DEFINITION (3)
•  WEIGHTED SUM OF EXPECTED VALUE
AND VARIANCE OF ALL POSSIBLE
CONSEQUENCES,
•  WEIGHTED COMBINATION OF VARIOUS
PARAMETERS OF THE PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION OF ALL POSSIBLE
CONSEQUENCES,
•  WEIGHTED OF POSSIBLE UNDESIRED
CONSEQUENCES (LOSS) RELATIVE TO
COMPARABLE POSSIBLE DESIRED
CONSEQUENCES (GAIN)
 BASIC DIMENSIONS UNDERLYING
PERCEIVED RISKINESS (1)

•  POTENTIAL DEGREE OF HARM OR

FATALITY,
•  PHYSICAL EXENT OF DAMAGE (AREA
AFFECTED),
•  SOCIAL EXTENT OF DAMAGE
(NUMBER OF PEOPLE INVOLVED),
 BASIC DIMENSIONS UNDERLYING
PERCEIVED RISKINESS (2)

•  TIME DISTRIBUTION OF DAMAGE

(IMMEDIATE AND/OR DELAYED EFFECTS),
•  PROBABILITY OF UNDESIRED
CONSEQUENCE
•  CONTROLLABILITY (BY SELF OR TRUSTED
EXPERT) OF CONSEQUENCES,
•  EXPERIENCE WITH, FAMILIARITY,
IMAGINABILITY OF CONSEQUENCES,
 BASIC DIMENSIONS UNDERLYING
PERCEIVED RISKINESS (3)

•  VOLUNTARINESS OF EXPOSURE
(FREEDOM OF CHOICE),
•  CLARITY, IMPORTANCE OF EXPECTED
BENEFITS,
•  SOCIAL DISTRIBUTION OF RISKS AND
BENEFITS,
•  HARMFULL INTENTIONALITY
 What is Risk?
What is Construction Risk?
•  Risk is “the possibility of suffering harm or
losses, danger” (American Heritage
Dictionary of English)
•  Construction risk is possibility of loss of time,
cost, quality and safety.
–  Consideration of uncertainty and unknown factors
in construction,
–  The magnitude of the uncertainty factors and
unknown factors will vary according to ability and
or capability of the people who handle them,
 Risk Mi'ga'on
•  Investigation of possible risk events,
•  Observation of the events,
•  Analysis of the related past events/
circumstances and data,
•  Collection of the related information and
experience and knowledge of risk
management,
 Uncertainty of Risk
•  Circumstances,
•  Liabilities of the party
•  Quality of people involved,
•  Location of project
 What is risk management?
•  Project risk management is the process of
risk management planning, risk identification,
risk analysis, risk responses, and risk
monitoring and control on a project,
(PMBOK),
•  Project risk management is to convert the
uncertainty or unknown factors occuring as
the project progresses to definite factors and
that systemising the project management is
to develop the measures for such
conversion” (Kusayanagi, et al, 2009)
 Manufactuing Industry
•  Pre-production industry
–  Commercialise the product manufactured in
anticipation of the need,
•  Order based industry
–  Commercialise the product which will fulfill the
needs of the customer upon order
 Uncertainty Factors
•  Client needs/ requirements,
•  Regulation on the product,
•  Negosiation with the public authorities,
•  Plan/ design of the product,
•  Criteria of completion,
•  Fund of production,
•  Procurement of equipment and materials,
•  Procurement of labourers,
•  Transport of equipment and materials,
•  Environment/ condition of production process,
•  Cost of production,
•  Quality control of the product,
•  Acceptance of the product by client,
•  Collection of fund for production,
•  Quality assurance of the product,
 The contractor shoul do
•  Study thoroughly
–  Invitation to bid,
–  Instruction to bidder,
–  The contract document,
–  Design, drawing, specification,
–  Related law/ regulation, codes
–  Local labour condition: quality, availability, local
union,
–  Historical weather report,
–  Geological/ soil investigation report,
–  Schedule requirements,
–  Socio-economic and political condition,
The key ques'on for risk management
•  What could happen to the project objec'ves:
cost, 'me, quality and safety et due to a
situa'on/ condi'on occuring which is
different from one’s plan, assump'on, and
expecta'on” (Kusayanagi, et al 2009)
 Category of Risk Elements
•  Organisational risk
–  Staff requirement,
–  Job assignment,
–  Team building
•  Financial risk
–  Price fluctuation,
–  Exchange rate,
–  Credit facility
•  Procurement risk,
–  Procurement of goods, works and services
•  External risk
–  Political, security and regulatory
•  Natural risk
–  Extreme weather, flood,
•  Earthquake, fire, war
 PROJECT RISK ANALYSIS
•  A RISK ANALYSIS IS SIMPLY A
CAREFUL EXAMINATION OF WHAT,
IN YOUR WORK, COULD CAUSE
LOSS TO PROJECT SO THAT YOU
CAN WEIGH UP WHETHER YOU
HAVE TAKEN ENOUGH
PRECAUTIONS OR SHOULD DO
MORE TO PREVENT THE LOSS.
BASIC PRINCIPLE

RISK = POTENTIAL LOSS

 POTENTIAL LOSS
IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

DELAY
COST OVERRUN
COMPLETION

CONSTRUCTION
QUALITY DEFECT
ACCIDENT
RISK = P(Eo) x P(Ei)
 A CASE
•  Your contracting company has a construction
project (i.e bridge, highrise building, road,
dam) in West Sumatera. You are appointed
as the project manager who are responsible
to deliver the project on time, on cost, on
quality and on safety. Therefore, the first
thing first for you to do is to provide a project
risk management portofolio as part of the
project planning and control.
•  Please workout a risk analysis for the
selected project
Code of Risk Management (Nielsen, 2005)
Item Expression Scale
probability Very low 1
Low 2
Medium 3
High 4
Very high 5
impact Very small 1
Small 2
Medium 3
Large 4
Very large 5
Risk category Not applicable 0
Acceptable 1
Mitigable 2
Allocable 3
Transferable 4
Avodance 5
 Probability scale (Edwards et al, 1995)
Probability Scale
Loss is not possible 0.0
Possibility is very remote 0.1
Remotely possible 0.2
Slight chance of it happening 0.3
A little less than equal chance 0.4
Equal chance of it happening 0.5
Fairly possible 0.6
More than likely to happen 0.7
Predictable 0.8
Very probable it will happen 0.9
Loss is certain 1.0
 Defini'on of Impact Scales
Objectives Very low Low Moderate High Very high
(0.05) (0.1) (0.2) (0.4) (0.5)
cost Insignificant < 10% cost 10-20% cost 20-40% cost > 40% cost
cost increase increase increase increase
increase
time Insignificant < 5% time 5-10% time 10-20% time > 20 % time
time increase increase increase increase
increase
scope Scope Minor areas Major areas Scope Project end
descrease of scope of scope reduction item is
barely affected affected unacceptabl effecctively
noticeable e to sponsor useless
quality Quality Only very Quality Quality Project end
degradation demanding reduction reduction item is
barely applications requires unacceptabl effectively
noticeable are affected sponsor e to sponsor useless
approval
Safety No damage Minor Major Fatal catastrope
damage damage damage
Risk assessment on soil excavation for foundation)

Weather Probability Unit Price ($) Probable Cost

condition ($)
Very dry 0.06 10 0.60
Fairly dry 0.24 12 2.88
Fairly wet 0.49 20 9.80
Very wet 0.21 25 5.25
Probable Cost 18.53
 RISK RESPONSE DIAGRAM
HIGH AVOIDANCE

ALLOCATION
OCCURENCE
PROBABILITY

MITIGATION

ACCEPTANCE TRANSFER

LOW

SMALL LARGE

IMPACT POSSIBILITY
 Risk Response
•  Acceptance
•  Mitigation
•  Allocation
•  Transfer
•  Avoidance
 Risk acceptance
•  This option is to accept the consequences
of this risk occurance as it is,
•  The project team to deal with the risk as
they occur,
•  Develop a contingency plan to execute if
the risk occurs that implies cost and
schedule,
 mitigation
•  To reduce the probability of occurrence
and /or consequence of an adverse risk
elements to an acceptable limit,
•  Introduce a new alternative execution
plan, new construction method/ technology
or reschedulling or changing
subcontractors, changing conditons:
adding resouces or changing project
manager,
 Allocation
•  To allocate the consequence of some
specified risk to a contracting party or a
third party, such as subcontractor, allowing
time extension but not any additional cost
between contractors and owners,
 transfer
•  To transfer the impact of a risk element
along with the ownership of the response
to a third party.
•  A risk can be transferred through
insurance, warranties, guarantees, bonds,
etc.
 Avoidance
•  To decline a project because of there
being too big a risk,
MATERI PJT NON KECIL (ARIF SBN, 2013)

MANAJEMEN RESIKO BAGI

KONTRAKTOR
Tipikal Risiko Proyek Konstruksi

•  Penyelesaian pekerjaan yang terlambat
•  Gagal mendapatkan perijinan (misal IMB)
•  Gambar detail perencanaan terlambat
•  Kondisi tanah yang sulit diluar perkiraan
•  Kondisi cuaca yang menyebabkan keterlambatan
•  Permasalahan tenaga kerja (misal mogok kerja)
•  Kenaikan harga tenaga kerja dan material diluar perkiraan
•  Kecelakaan kerja
•  Force majeur (banjir, angin, gempa, erupsi gunung berapi, dll)
•  Klaim dari subkontraktor

Risiko-resiko tersebut dapat dikaitkan dengan kegagalan untuk mencapai target

anggaran biaya, waktu dan persyaratan teknis baik berkaitan dengan kualitas, fungsi,
kesesuaian, keselamatan/ keamanan dan preservasi lingkungan.
Macam-Macam Risiko

•  Risiko yang diketahui (known risk),
à risiko yang dapat diprediksi. Misal sisa potongan triplek yang
'dak dapat digunakan adalah 5%.

•  Diketahui-'dak diketahui (known-unknown),
à curah hujan, kondisi tanah.

•  Tidak diketahui-'dak diketahui (unknown-unknown).
àbencana, krisis, eskalasi, dll.
 Klasifikasi Risiko

•  Konsekuensinya,
•  Tipe-tipe risiko, dan
•  Dampaknya.

Pure Risk atau Static Risk: Tidak ada potensi untuk mendapatkan keuntungan, misal risiko
yang timbul dari kemungkinan terjadinya kecelakaan atau kegagalan teknis.
Speculative Risk: Terdapat potensi kerugian atau keuntungan, yang dapat timbul baik dari
aspek finansial, teknikal maupun fisik.
Dampak Risiko
 MENEJEMEN RESIKO

à  Suatu usaha untuk menghindari, mengurangi, menyerap atau mentransfer risiko
dan memanfaatkan potensi peluang-peluang.

à  Manajemen risiko merupakan pendekatan proak'f, mengan'sipasi bagaimana

jika (what if?) suatu kejadian terjadi diwaktu yang akan datang, apa dampaknya
terhadap proyek.

à  Tujuan manajemen risiko adalah memaksimalkan potensi keuntungan dan

meminimalkan dampak dari kejadian yang merugikan.

à  Manajemen risiko dapat menentukan apakah suatu proyek akan diambil atau
'dak dan bagaimana risiko dapat dikurangi sampai 'ngkatan yang dapat diterima,
baik dengan mengurangi frekuensinya maupun dampaknya.
Proses Manajemen Risiko

Iden'fikasi risiko

Analisis risiko

Respon risiko

Decision
Proses Manajemen Risiko (lanjutan)

Iden'fikasi risiko
à  menentukan risiko-risiko apa saja yang dapat mempengaruhi proyek dan
mendokumentasikan karakter masing-masing risiko.
à  suatu proses yang dilakukan secara reguler selama masa proyek berlangsung.

Risiko dapat muncul dari dalam (internal risk) atau dari luar (external risks). Risiko dari
dalam adalah risko yang dapat dikendalikan oleh 'm proyek. Contoh internal risk
adalah berkaitan dengan staf proyek dan es'masi biaya. Risiko dari luar adalah
hal-hal diluar kendali atau pengaruh dari 'm proyek, seper' perubahan pasar
atau kebijakan pemerintah.
Sumber dan Effek dari Resiko
Proses Manajemen Risiko (lanjutan)

Analisis risiko

(asesmen risiko atau kuan?fikasi risiko),
à Pekerjaan ini cukup kompleks karena beberapa hal:

• Peluang dan ancaman dapat berinteraksi dalam cara yang 'dak teran'sipasi (misal
ketelambatan waktu dapat mendorong per'mbangan strategi baru yang dapat
mengurangi waktu proyek keseluruhan).

• Kejadian risiko tunggal dapat menyebabkan mul' efek, seper' pengiriman terlambat
suatu komponen pen'ng menyebabkan pembengkakan biaya, keterlambatan, pinal'
pembayaran, dan produk dengan mutu rendah.

• Kejadian menguntungkan bagi satu pihak (misal pengurangan biaya) dapat menjadi
kerugian pihak yang lain (pengurangan keuntungan).

• Hitungan matema'ka yang digunakan dapat memberi kesan yang salah terhadap
presisi dan reliabilitas.

Proses Manajemen Risiko (lanjutan)

Respon risiko

l  Menghindari – eliminasi ancaman, biasanya dengan mengeliminasi
penyebabnya.

l  Mi?gasi – mengurangi EMV dari kejadian risiko dengan mengurangi probabilitas

kejadian (misal menggunakan teknologi )

l  Transfer, memindahkan resiko pada pihak lain, umumnya melalui suatu kontrak
(asuransi) maupun hedging.

l  Deferral, menunda aspek suatu proyek hingga saat dimana probabilitas

terjadinya resiko tersebut kecil.

l  Menerima – ak?f (misal dengan menyiapkan rencana kon'ngensi untuk

dilaksanakan jika kejadian risiko terjadi) atau pasif (misal dengan menerima
keuntungan yang lebih rendah jika beberapa kegiatan membengkak).

Contoh metode respon risiko

1.  Pengadaan (procurement). Pengadaan, mendapatkan barang atau servis dari luar,
sering merupakan respon yang dipilih untuk beberapa 'pe risiko. Contoh, risiko
berhubungan dengan menggunakan teknologi tertentu mungkin dapat dimi'gasi
dengan membuat kontrak dengan perusahaan yang mempunyai pengalaman
dengan teknologi tersebut.

2.  Con?ngency planning. Mendefinisikan langkah-langkah 'ndakan yang harus

diambil jika suatu peris'wa risiko yang diiden'fikasi terjadi.

3.  Alterna?f strategi. Kejadian risiko sering dapat dicegah atau dihindari dengan
mengubah pendekatan yang direncanakan. Misalnya, desain pekerjaan tambahan
dapat menurunkan angka perubahan yang harus ditangani selama pelaksanaan
atau tahap konstruksi.

4.  Asuransi. Asuransi dapat dipilih untuk mengatasi beberapa kategori risiko. Jenis
pertanggungan yang tersedia dan biaya pertanggungan tergantung pada wilayah
aplikasi.

Beberapa Teknik-Teknik Analisis Risiko

1.  Expected Monetary Value (EMV)

2.  Matrik Keputusan (Decision Matrix)
3.  Pohon Keputusan (Decision Tree)
4.  Probabilis'c analisis (Tender Strategy)
5.  Pendapat ahli (Expert judgement)
Teknik-Teknik Analisis Risiko (lanjutan)

Expected Monetary Value (EMV).

à dihitung berdasarkan:
• Probabilitas kejadian risiko.
• Nilai kejadian risiko. Perkiraan untung atau rugi yang akan terjadi jika kejadian
risiko terjadi.

The risk event value must reflect both tangibles and intangibles. For example,
Project A and Project B both identify an equal probability of a tangible loss of
$100,000 as an outcome of an aggressively priced proposal. If Project A predicts
little or no intangible effect, while Project B predicts that such a loss will put its
performing organization out of business, the two risks are not equivalent.
Teknik-Teknik Analisis Risiko (lanjutan)

Contoh 1
Analisis resiko terkait pengaruh cuaca terhadap harga dan waktu konstruksi
Teknik-Teknik Analisis Risiko (lanjutan)

Matrik Keputusan (Decision Matrix)

Misal perusahaan pembuat BATAKO memprediksi pasar akan naik 15% dalam satu
tahun kedepan. Terdapat 'ga strategi yang diper'mbangkan,yaitu:
S1 menambah peralatan untuk meningkatkan kapasitas produksi
S2 bekerja lembur dan sabtu minggu kerja
S3 bekerja dengan kapasitas yang ada saat ini

Keuntungan
Strategi Pasar
15 % Stabil -10 %
S1 240 130 0
S2 210 150 70
S3 170 150 70
Teknik-Teknik Analisis Risiko (lanjutan)

Matrik Keputusan / Decision Matrix……….(lanjutan)

Probabilitas dapat ditentukan (dapat secara subyek'f). Misal kenaikan 15%
probabilitasnya 60%, stabil 30% dan -10% probabilitasnya 10%.

Outcome Pay-off Probabilitas EMV

+ 15 % 240.000 0,6 144.000
Stabil 130.000 0,3 39.000
- 10 % 0 0,1 0
EMV 183.000
Strategy EMV
S1 Peralatan baru 183.000
Strategi S1 menarik karena
S2 Lembur 178.000 memberikan EMV ter'nggi.
S3 Kondisi saat ini 154.000
Teknik-Teknik Analisis Risiko (lanjutan)

Pohon Keputusan (Decision Tree).

suatu diagram yang menunjukkan interaksi kunci antar keputusan dan potensi
kejadian yang berhubungan.
Teknik-Teknik Analisis Risiko (lanjutan)

Pendapat ahli (Expert judgement).

Pendapat ahli dapat diaplikasikan untuk menggan'kan atau sebagai tambahan
terhadap teknik matema'ka seper' diatas. Contoh, kejadian risiko dapat
dideskripsikan sebagai mempunyai probabilitas 'nggi, medium atau rendah untuk
terjadi dan dampaknya parah, sedang atau kecil.