Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia

Vicerrectoría Académica y de Investigación

Syllabus of the Course Theory of Decisions, Code 212066

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Would you like to know what Decision Theory is about and what is its field of
application?
Would you like to know how to make decisions and optimize resources on
problems associated with production processes and services?

The course is called Theory of Decisions, its code is 212066, it is organized in

3 academic credits and distributed in 3 units, it is offered from the Basic
Sciences unit and it is an elective course in Industrial, Systems and Business
Administration programs.

Apply decision methods in risk, uncertainty and Markov environments through

their algorithms, in solving problems associated with production and service
processes for decision-making and resource optimization.

The Theory of Decisions course presents the following units:

1
Unit 1. Decision models under risks. In this unit, the following contents will
be addressed: Expected value, Decision Trees and Utility Theory.
Unit 2. Optimization models under uncertainties. In this unit, the following
contents will be addressed: Criteria of Laplace, Minimal, Savage and Hurwicz
and Game Theory.
Unit 3. Optimization models with Markov chains. In this unit, the following
contents will be addressed: Dynamic programming model of finite stage and
Dynamic programming model of infinite stage

The course agenda presents the synthesis of the activities to be developed

together with the scores, availability dates and feedback. Enable the activities
and display the availability time using colors, green, indicates that the activity
is enabled, yellow, indicates that the activity will close in less than 7 days and
red, indicates that the activity will close in less than 3 days.

The activities associated with the task-based learning strategy are related in
the following activity guides:
Activity guide - Task 1: Pre - knowledge.
Activity guide - Task 2: Solving problems of decision models under risks.
Activity Guide - Task 3: Solving problems of optimization models under
uncertainties.
Activity guide - Task 4: Solving problems of optimization models with Markov
chains.
Task 5: Quiz.
Activity Guide -Task 6: Solving problems of decision and optimization of risk,
uncertainty and Markov chains.

2
The course evaluation system is structured in three evaluation moments
through the following evaluation rubrics:
• Initial evaluation, 5%: Evaluation rubric - Task 1 - Presaberes.
• Intermediate evaluation, 70%: Task 2: Solving problems of decision
models under risks, Task 3: Solving problems of optimization models
under uncertainties, Task 4: Solving problems of optimization models
with Markov chains andTask 5: Quiz.
• Final evaluation, 25%: Task 6: Solving problems of decision and
optimization of risk, uncertainty and Markov chains .
The evaluation rubrics can be downloaded in PDF format.

The problem that this course aims to help solve is found in decision making
applicable in the most varied contexts, where the probability and influence of
factors make it difficult to choose a decision.

The solution provided by the Theory of Decisions course to the problem

consists of presenting mathematical methods and techniques to simulate
problems associated with production and service processes and transform
them into probabilistic relationships to find their solution, through a correct
analysis that leads to apply the results in specific situations for decision-
making and optimization of resources.

Dear student, I invite you to actively participate in the development of the

course during the academic period, where from problems associated with
production and service processes and through mathematical modeling, you
will learn a new way of making decisions and optimizing resources, useful for
your training. and profession.
3
• Sharma, J. (2016). Operations Research: Theory and Applications, New
Delhi: Laxmi Publications Pvt Ltd, v. Sixth edition.
• Aven, T. (2008). Risk Analysis: The Risk Analysis Process: Chichester, UK:
john wiley & sons editorial.
• Kelly, A. (2003). Decision Making Using Game Theory: An Introduction for
Managers: Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press Editorial.
• Piunovskiy, A. (2012). Examples In Markov Decision Processes: Singapore:
Imperial College Press Optimization Series.

School of Basic Sciences, Technology and Engineering - ECBTI

Course director
Ricardo Javier Pineda Melgarejo
Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia - UNAD
2020