OFM Forecast Limits and Forecast Schedule Implementation

The latest improvements in OFM Forecast give users great flexibility to set up forecast
limits and to conduct multi schedule forecast. This document discusses the OFM Forecast
limits and the rules by which OFM implements forecast schedules in OFM 2002.1.

Forecast Limits

OFM Forecast uses four limits: Time, Rate (Economic Limit), Schedule Reserves and
Total Reserves to end a forecast schedule. Beginning with OFM 2002.1 the rate, schedule
reserves and total reserves can be user-defined functions (calculated variables) as well as
numerical values.

The following are two examples that show setting up calculated variable limits.
Example 1: Define a calculated variable CV.RateLimit as @If( Date <= 20031231, 10,
15). To use it: check the Economic Limit option and select CV.RateLimit from the
dropdown list. OFM Forecast will evaluate CV.RateLimit at every forecast date. In this
case it will return 10 when forecast date is up to Dec. 31, 2003, and 15 after that. The unit
depends on Units Settings.

Example 2: Suppose there are two tables: Operation and Price shown as in the following
figure.

A variable CV.RateMin can be defined as @Lookup( Operation.Cost, @DcaCaseName(),

Date, “date step” )/@Lookup( Price.Oil, @DcaCaseName(), Date, “date step” ) to
calculate the minimum production required to cover the operation cost with case and
date.
Note: OFM 2002.1 database can be used in OFM 2002. However, if the rate, schedule
reserves and total reserves limits are calculated variables, they will be treated as zeros in
the earlier versions of OFM.

Rules of Forecast Schedule Implementation

OFM Forecast checks Rate (Economic Limit), Schedule Reserves and Total Reserves
limits (in that order) at every forecast date. If one of these three limits is reached a
forecast will be cut off before the Ending Time.

OFM will cut off forecast at the time period in which a Rate limit is reached. However,
OFM will end a schedule just before a Schedule Reserves limit, or a Total Reserves limit
is reached.

When a limit is reached, it will end only the current schedule, and the forecast will go on
until the last schedule ends.

The rules for the Starting and Ending Times of schedules are as follows:

General Rules:
 If you want a schedule to always occupy a fixed time period, you must specify a
fixed date for both Starting Time and Ending Time.
 If you want a schedule to end at a fixed date, you must specify a fixed date for
Ending Time. In this case, even if a limit is reached during the schedule, the
schedule will continue through the Ending Time, simulating a shut in.
 If you specify Months from Start as Ending Time, and a limit is reached during
the schedule, the schedule will end.

Starting Time Rules for Schedule 1:

Fixed Starting Time: The Starting Time of Schedule 1 will be fixed if Starting Time is
set to a fixed calendar date.
Calculated Starting Time: The Starting Time of Schedule 1 will be calculated if:
 Starting Time is set as Last Historical Date;
 Starting Time is set as Months from End.

Starting Time Rules for Schedules 2 and Higher:

Fixed Starting Time: The Starting Time of a schedule will be fixed if:
 Starting Time is set to a fixed calendar date;
 Starting Time of the schedule is set as Months from End, and the Ending Time of
the previous schedule is fixed.
Calculated Starting Time: The Starting Time of a schedule will be calculated if
Starting Time of the schedule is set as Months from End, and the Ending Time of the
previous schedule is calculated.