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Operations Management 5
Fariborz Y. Partovi, Jonathan Burton and Avijit Banerjee
Drexel University, Philadelphia, USA Received February 1989
Revised July 1989
Introduction
The use of qualitative judgements in multi-factor decision models is receiving
increasing attention and a variety of approaches have been developed which
cover a wide range of techniques. One method which has received increasing
attention in the literature is the relatively recently developed Analytical Hierarchy
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An engineer must decide among three alternative engine fuel control systems
as part of a special aircraft engine design. The three alternative control systems
are mechanical (MEC), electromechanical (ELECMEC), and electronic
(ELECTRON). The criteria considered are direct cost, flow time, reliability,
and performance. The first step in AHP is to develop a graphical representation
of the problem in terms of the overall goals, criteria and the decision alternatives.
Figure 1 shows the hierarchy for the fuel control system selection problem.
The top level of the hierarchy is the overall goal; determination of the best fuel
control system. The second level shows the four criteria stated above that
contribute to the achievement of the overall goal. The three decision alternatives,
mechanical, electromechanical, and electronic fuel control systems are shown
at the third level.
In using AHP, the decision maker must specify his judgements of the relative Application of
importance of each criterion's contribution towards achieving the overall goal. Analytical
The evaluations would then be solicited using questions such as "What is Hierarchy
the importance of cost reduction relative to an increase in reliability in
accomplishing our overall goal?". Similar pair-wise comparisons for other criteria
can be done to generate Saaty's pair-wise comparison matrix[4]. From this
evaluation we develop a preference matrix, a corresponding set of weights (the 7
eigen-vector, W, determined by a computer program), and a consistency ratio
(CR) for the first level of the model, as shown below. The consistency ratio
is the ratio of the decision maker's inconsistencies and inconsistencies resulting
from randomly generated preferences.
Flow
Cost Rel. Perf. time
Cost
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Reliability CR = 0.078 W=
Performance
Flow time
The decision maker believes, for example, that reliability is four times as
important as cost. Consequently, cost is 1/4 as important as reliability, as shown
above. The next step is to make pair-wise comparisons of each fuel system
alternative, with respect to each of the criteria. We will illustrate this with respect
to the second attribute, reliability.
Here, the decision maker believes, for example, that the electronic system is
three times as reliable as the mechanical system. Similarly, pair-wise
comparisons must be made with respect to each of the other three attributes.
The overall consistency results for each of the alternatives with respect to each
criterion are presented in the following matrix.
Fuel System
MEC ELECMEC ELECTRON
Cost 0.544 0.278 0.178
Reliability 0.210 0.240 0.550
Performance 0.075 0.183 0.742
Flow time 0.458 0.416 0.216
IJOPM Finally, the best fuel system alternative is found by determining the product
10,3 of the criteria priorities and the alternative weights as shown below.
Cost Reliability Performance Flow time
MEC
8 ELECMEC =
ELECTRON
The composite score indicates that the electronic fuel system is the best
alternative. The evaluation proposed here is not intended to be an "answer"
to the fuel system design decision but serves to illustrate the steps entailed
when using AHP.
Axioms of AHP
Saaty[4] and Harker and Vargas [5] give a formal statement of the axioms of
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Most techniques for finalising the supplier selection decision utilise a candidate-
ranking process based on a number of relevant criteria. The task is to identify
the "key factors" involved in the selection and assign weights to the factors
based on their importance. The candidate suppliers are then "scored" for each
factor[7]. Figure 2, which is adapted from Narasimhan[6], shows the hierarchy
for supplier selection in an AHP framework.
In this figure, the goal is to select the best supplier; their price structure,
delivery, quality and service make up the elements in the second level of the
hierarchy. The next level of the hierarchy further subdivides each of the above
criteria into measurable subcriteria. For example, the delivery criterion is
subdivided into timeliness and costs. The last level of the hierarchy shows the
alternative vendors, A, B and C.
10
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level we separate the major factors affecting the forecast into internal and external
factors. The internal factors can be further subdivided into: product design (PD),
IJOPM price and advertising promotions (PA), packaging design (PKD), salesperson
10,3 quotas or incentives (SQ), expansion or contraction of geographically targeted
market (EC), product mix (PM), and backlog policy (BP). The external factors
consist of the state of the economy (SE), consumers' taste (CI), service image
(SI), competitors' actions (CA), governments' actions (GA), and the availability
of complementary products (CP). These criteria and subcriteria will not be
12 defined here; the interested reader should refer to Krajewski and Ritzman[10].
The lowest level in the hierarchy contains, as alternatives, the range of
percentages which can be used to adjust a forecast. AHP can be used in this
case to combine human judgements with time series forecasting methods to
enhance the quality of the forecast. In Figure 4 the alternatives represent the
various percentage ranges that can be used to adjust the forecast. In this case,
each of the final alternatives was selected to have an arbitrary width of ten per
cent. Different percentage ranges are selected for specific situations, which are
selected so that the ranges are narrow enough to make fine adjustments to a
forecast, yet wide enough to make comparisons feasible. The questioning is
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Choice of Technology
Capital-budgeting models, such as payback, net present value and internal rate
of return, are commonly used models when choosing new technology in
manufacturing[11,12]. These models have been used extensively in industry
owing to their ease of use, their tacticalfinancialassumptions, and their treatment Application of
of the time value of money. Although these models may provide a good technique Analytical
for the evaluation of tactical issues in project selection, they fail to consider Hierarchy
long-term, strategical, non-monetary factors in technological decision making.
Kleindorfer and Partovi[13] have suggested an AHP relating manufacturing
strategy to the choice of technology (see Figure 5).
This hierarchical model begins with competitive strategy based on the internal 13
and external analysis of the firm. Below competitive strategy, there are three
general groups of elements. Thefirstgroup, manufacturing strategy elements,
consists of competitive forces such as cost, quality, dependability, and flexibility.
The second group is an intermediate group linking the forces driving competition.
This group is identified with specific activities in the value chain, including
inbound logistics, design, process, outbound logistics, sales, and customer
service. Thefinalgroup is related to the technology projects themselves, as
they influence specific value chain activities and are evaluated with respect to
the specific manufacturing strategy.
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14
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the various factors affecting a decision maker's judgements are presented. These
factors are safety (SAF), flexibility of layout to incorporate future design changes
(FLEX), noise (NOISE ), aesthetics (AES ), floor space utilisation (FS-U),
through-put time (TP-T), manpower utilisation (MP-U), in-process inventory
(IP-I), and load-distance score (LD-S )[18]. As in the previous cases, the criteria
must be quantified as in the following: 2,000 units per plant operation hour
(through-put time); $50,000 per product model changeover (flexibility); 85 per
cent utilisation of available space (floor space utilisation); 70 per cent utilisation
of each worker (manpower utilisation); and two minor injuries per 1,000 man-
hours worked (safety). Once these criteria are defined it is possible to compare
the relative importance of each in determining the ideal plant design. When
evaluating the alternatives in the lowest level of the hierarchy, the proximity
IJOPM of a pair of facilities will be compared with another pair with respect to the
10,3 above criteria. It should be noted that, once an alternative has been chosen
as the ideal layout, that alternative should be removed from the hierarchy.
Consequently, the remaining alternatives of the modified hierarchy require new
evaluations with respect to all criteria (fourth AHP axiom).
16 Preventive Maintenance Frequence Determination
The proper maintenance of equipment is essential for the smooth running of
operations. In most organisations, maintenance activities involve repairs and
preventive maintenance. The timing of preventive maintenance is important for
operations to function efficiently. The decision to schedule certain preventive
maintenance activities, quarterly, monthly, weekly or daily, depends on a number
of different criteria.
We will use Dhavale and Otterson's[19] framework for defining appropriate
criteria and subcriteria for evaluating preventive maintenance frequency. An
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Application of
Hierarchy
17
Analytical
IJOPM Figure 9 illustrates the hierarchy of logistic carrier selection. As before, the
10,3 criteria at each level in the hierarchy are shown. In a similar manner, the
alternatives in this case include three carriers, and the optimal solution involves
choosing the carrier alternative with the greatest cumulative weight.
Conclusions
18 This article has presented the use of AHP in eight decision areas of operations
management. Decision hierarchies have been suggested for: (1) product design
decisions, (2) plant layout design decisions, (3) preventive maintenance frequency
selection, and (4) choice of logistic carrier. Furthermore, published AHP
application hierarchies in (5) facility location planning, (6) supplier selection
decision, (7) choice of technology, and (8) time series forecasting adjustments
have been reviewed. The eight hierarchies presented in this article illustrate
the wide range of multi-factor operational decisions to which AHP can be applied.
AHP offers a unique and valuable method for integrating judgements with the
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