Wheat Production in

France

Carolina Del Santo Camos,

Kayla McCloskey, Lucas Sherry,
and Haylah Wagner

April 3, 2020

This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA

 WHEAT PRODUCTION IN FRANCE

Table of Contents

Introduction..........................................3
Problem Landscape.............................4
Solution Landscape...........................12
Gaps and Levers of Change.............19
Reflection............................................22
References...........................................24

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Introduction
Agriculture and climate change are inevitably linked. Climate disruptions to agricultural

production have increased in the past 40 years and are projected to continue to increase over

the next 25 years (National Climate Assessment, n.d.). This issue will cause farmers and farm

communities around the world to be increasingly challenged to adjust their agricultural

practices. Climate change is also expected to contribute substantially to food insecurity in the

future, by increasing food prices and reducing food production (FutureLearn. n.d.). France

being a top 10 wheat producer, growing 4 percent of total global production, is not an

exception to the rule (Gro Intelligence, 2018). In this European country, 50% of all farming

operations are focused on growing cereals. Wheat is the dominant cereal crop, with more than

50 percent of farmland in the area used to produce this commodity. France also leads the EU in

the volume of cereals produced, with approximately 54.9 million tonnes grown annually, the

majority being wheat (Gro Intelligence, 2018).

The effects of climate change threaten the growing French cereal production. Hot temperatures

stunt the growth of cereal crops, thereby cutting their yields and reducing their sale value, due

to a lowered protein content. An example of climate affecting crops took place in 2018 when

the French heatwave led to the world wheat stocks dropping for the first time since 2013. That

year the production of wheat went from 36.6 million tonnes in 2017 to 33-35 million tonnes in

2018 (Gro Intelligence, 2018). This paper will explore the understanding of the effects of

climate change on wheat production, it’s consequences in the long run, which tools should be

used to mitigate this problem, and the relationships in between the system.

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Problem Landscape
Grain Production in France
The issue in which we decided to focus on for this research project is the impacts that climate

change has on wheat production in France, and the ripple effects of these impacts on the

food chain. This issue affects farmers of all sectors of agriculture, their families, consumers

and producers, importers and exports, the government of France, and even people of other

countries who benefit from French farmers' work. “The history of agriculture was a major

factor that led to the French Revolution of 1789” (Malvezin, 2015). Difficult weather

conditions lead to bad harvest, food shortages, hungry people fighting over bread and food,

and ultimately, a rebellion against the political system. In the nineteenth century, French

agriculture growth took off thanks to the introduction of fertilizer and man-made meadows.

It was not until the twentieth century when more specialized agriculture to achieve food

security and a base for European construction was introduced. Technical progress allowed

for increased efficiency, which required fewer people to physically work on a farm to

produce the same amount of food. After the second World War, self-sufficiency became the

main concern in agriculture. French farmers started a redefining moment in agriculture.

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Farming was considered a typical job, and therefore needed more specialization, more

education and should provide the same income as urban jobs. Their landscape was modified

a great deal to create bigger farms. Around the end of the twentieth century, consumer

concerns about how their food was being made and how its environmental impact led to the

development of high-quality standards for products, increased organic products, the support

of farms in disadvantaged areas, and farms providing for local buyers. The start of the

twenty-first century is where farming increased significantly, and agriculture plays a very

important role in France. Farmers have other responsibilities besides producing food, and

these responsibilities include working on landscapes, preserving the biodiversity, keeping

rural areas from becoming empty and providing diversity for food and seeds

(Malvezin,2015). All funding for agriculture is derived directly from the European Union’s

budget under Common Agricultural Practices (CAP). Agriculture spending is the largest

individual part of the European Union’s total expenditure denoted in Figure 1:

Figure 1: Percentage of European Union Budget allocated to CAP objectives (The

European Commission 2010)

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The total agricultural budget equates to 30 cents per person per day across the EU (The

European Commission, 2020). It is important to note that governments globally are propping

up their agricultural industries to remain competitive on the global market and help farmers

balance the pressures put upon them in the modern area of agriculture, environmental concern,

and population increase.

“European farmers are expected to maintain the highest safety, environmental and

animal health and welfare standards in the world. This is in response to public demands

for a sustainable agricultural sector. Given these high standards and in order for EU

farming (an industry which supports 22 million people) to remain competitive, public

support is needed. In exchange, consumers receive a consistent supply of safe,

sustainably produced food at affordable prices” (The European Commission, 2020).

Funding for wheat production falls underneath this mammoth body across 27 member

countries, which is not without its complexities.

Size and Scope

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climate change will

cause fluctuations in temperature and rainfall. This will influence soil evaporation and plant

transpiration, which will have an impact on wheat production globally and in France (IPCC,

2007). It was originally assumed that locations near the equator would be most affected by heat

stress. According to Teixeira et al., the land area between 40° and 60°N will be most affected.

This totals a land area of approximately 6 -10 million hectares (Mha); “Particularly continental

areas, at mid and high Northern latitudes” (Teixeira et al, 2011). While wheat production has

increased from elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, elevated temperatures have the

potential to offset those gains, especially during the “wheat filling” phase of the growth cycle”

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(Teixeira et al, 2011). It is shown that heat stress during grain filling will increase for wheat

crops grown in France due to climate change in the near future. Figure 2 is a diagram

outlining challenges/risks different regions of Europe will face during climate change, the

data was compiled out of 163 studies:

Figure 2: Impacts of Climate Change by Geographical/Ecological Regions (Iglesias &

Garrote, 2015)

As you can see, France (Atlantic region) will face increased flooding, increased irrigation

needs, sea level rise, and shifts in land use. All those factors increase restraints on agriculture

and wheat production in terms of maximum arable land availability. Overall land area will

be shrinking, development will be moving away from the coast and into arable land areas,

and current arable land will be seasonally flooded and/or underwater. The study does admit

that commonality will vary by region, which only stands to reason that contexts can be highly

variable within a specific region. Elements of this system that seem to be working in the

French farmer’s favour include providing a food source for various countries and income for

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agricultural workers. Contrasting this, some elements of the system that make it difficult for

the farmers to do their job include environmental degradation, having to depend on

weather for successful harvesting, being responsible for the care of crops, people relying on

you for their food source, and losing income due to an unsuccessful harvest. There are also

other elements putting constraints on the agricultural industry, making it even harder for

French farmers. These include social pressure on farmers to harvest enough crops to feed

multiple countries. The EU aims to ensure farmers provide a stable and safe food supply,

produced in a sustainable way, at an affordable price for more than 510 million consumers

across the country. Weakness in productivity, imbalances in value chains, and ensuring

vibrant rural communities also put pressure on farmers (Lunik and Malchow, 2018).

Environmental elements making it difficult for harvest include climate change, global

warming, abnormal weather patterns, environmental degradation, water pollution and

scarcity, soil erosion, GHG emissions, and preserving biodiversity and the landscape.

Economic constraints on the system include the pressure on farm income, price of farming

equipment, falling employment rates, low revenues, high labour costs, oil prices, and

imports and exports. Political constraints on the industry include the lack of coordination

between sectors and questionable non-price competitiveness and regulatory complexity.

Regulatory complexity simply means the most important factor influencing strategic

change and at financial institutes. It is actually known to be the second largest threat to

growth prospects. Lastly, all of these elements of the agricultural system in France have

ripple effects on the food chain. Climate change leads to increase in temperature, increase in

pest population, poor growing conditions, decrease in yields, low bread products, food

shortage, hunger, malnutrition, possible deaths, and public/global outrage. Figure 3 was

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developed to outline the current multi-level perspective of wheat production in France:

Figure 3: A Multi-Level Perspective of Wheat Production in France

The above diagram is color-coded to signify their adaptability. At the niche level, it is

constantly adapting, has a small influence on the regime level and heavily influenced by

the regime level. The regime level is robust, denoted in orange, signifying its stable state

but decreased ability to adapt. It does have an influence on the landscape level but is

ultimately shaped by the landscape. The landscape level is the dominant values

influencing the wheat/agriculture regimes in France, denoted in red for its inability to

change. Although influenced by the regime level, these values are putting significant

pressure on the current regime. The regime level is stuck in a rigidity trap denoted in

Figure 4:

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Figure 4: Rigidity Trap with Agricultural Subsidies

CAP and The Ministry of Agriculture and Food are supporting the farm industry to help

with constraints, but it is not promoting innovation in the face of climate change. These

subsidies must be geared toward agricultural innovation and awarding those farmers who

are doing so.

French politician, Emmanuel Macron, pledged to donate 5 billion euros in order to help

farmers steer away from the “status quo” and take the social pressure off them. “Macron

pledged to clamp down on farmland purchases by foreign buyers, highlighting access to

land for young farmers as a vital issue as France faced the prospect of 40 percent of current

farmers retiring by 2020” (Trompiz and Pennetier, 2018). In doing this, it will make it easier

for farmers to continue in their work without the regular constraints they have to endure.

Figure 5 was developed to depict the adaptive cycle of farming practices in France:

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Figure 5: Farming Practices on Adaptive Cycle

Wheat production is shifting from the conservation stage where wheat production is steady.

Climate change could be the shock that causes a transition into the release phase. While the

current regime is rigid, the solutions in the niche level could help the system adapt to avoid

release from occurring. The last time these practices shifted to the release phase into

reorganization was invariably due to the advent of synthetic Nitrogen (N) and industrial

farming in the 1930’s. This also denotes a path dependency from the farmers perspective.

Our group chose this topic to better understand the situation and find solutions to this

complicated issue. Please continually consider the system map (Figure 3) for context while

you look at the solutions proposed in the next section.

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Solution Landscape
In-situ solution:

One solution is to modify when crops are sown to reduce heat stress during vulnerable

growth phases referred to as “autonomous adaptation solutions” (modification of sowing

dates and selection of earlier heading cultivars) (Gouache et al, 2012). Sow crops earlier or

later in the season or growing cultivars with different crop traits. The season for sowing

wheat in France usually starts between the beginning of October and the end of

November. The harvest season then begins everywhere around the first of July, and the

end of August completes it (Wheat Atlas. n.d.).

The measure of sowing wheat two weeks earlier or later than the baseline can be a useful

method against the effects of climate change in wheat crops. A study published in Nature

Climate Change demonstrates that to be able to have early sowing, farmers need new

varieties that allow them more leeway to vary their sowing dates in rainfall (Hunt, 2020).

In most locations in the world, grain yields were improved with the trait combination of

delayed anthesis and increased grain filling rate (Figure 1b) shown in figure 6 (Asseng, et

al, 2018).

Figure 6: Trait Combinations for Increased Crop Yield (Asseng, et al., 2018)

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Irrigation:

Increased irrigation has been listed in several studies as a solution to increased evapo-

transpiration (lack of soil moisture). Temperature increases due to climate change are

expected to cause substantial reductions in global wheat yields. In Kansas, they observe 11

fields over 29 years to show that irrigation significantly reduces the negative impact of

warming temperatures on winter wheat yields (Tack, et al. 2017). Wheat cultivars can differ in

the magnitude of an increase in flour protein in response to moisture stress, which results in

changes in rank for flour protein content across moisture levels (Guttieri, et al. 2000). While

irrigation may be a solution, it has the potential to further reduce water and drinking water

supply in susceptible regions. Using PEI (46.51°N) as an example, an Atlantic jurisdiction is

susceptible to the same factors as Paris (46.22°N). France is solely reliant on groundwater for

drinking water supply. Residents are very passionate about The Water Act that has gone to

public consultation several times over 5 years (PEI Government, 2020). Farmers and Industry

state that the need for high capacity wells is increasing due to seasonal fluctuations in water

availability for crops and seasonal drought-like conditions. The impacts elevated N levels

have on watershed ecosystems and fish populations, and locals feel that high-capacity wells

threaten current and future generations. This legislation could pass if it was well regulated,

water was efficiently delivered to crops, and if producers can replicate crop yields with a

reduction in N application rates and increased water application. The opposition has been

difficult, but the government has been working with Islanders. One of the main questions is

because of increased intensity of rainfall events and their variability will this have an

increased impact on groundwater recharge /storage? France is a large jurisdiction and will

undoubtedly run into complicated policy considerations. It’s important for the government to

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be transparent during development of these policies.

Water-scarce countries are always focused on efficient use of water, perhaps France could

learn from these countries to find more efficient methods of water delivery to wheat crops.

Antiquated irrigation methods will provide water to crops, but increased evapotranspiration

will increase water waste. Increased irrigation could put further strain on ecosystems and

water supplies if not properly managed. We have identified this as an ingenuity gap in the

regime.

Land Use Planning:

France will face increased flooding, increased irrigation needs, sea level rise, and shifts in

land use. All those factors increase restraints on agriculture and specifically wheat

production in terms of maximum arable land availability. Overall land area will be

shrinking, development will be moving away from the coast and into arable land areas, and

current arable land will be seasonally flooded and/or underwater. There will also be

increased competition between crop types which will need to be managed by the Ministry of

Agriculture and Food. Proper land use planning will take coordination between local and

national departments and will include increased funding and enforcement jurisdiction for

local planning departments. One interesting solution is to elevate farmers into the role of

‘custodians” of floodplains. Maintaining and increasing flood plains will give natural buffers

and reduce damage to arable crop land and crops (Iglesias & Garrote, 2015). While Iglesias

& Garrote (2015) note that it would be costly, but highly beneficial. Finding common ground

between competing policy objectives (ie. environmental sustainability + agriculture) and

revising current policy would be more effective (pp 119). Giving farmers the tools they need

to manage these areas and the theory behind could increase their agricultural stewardship.

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Agrobiodiversity:

Farmers have complex objectives when it comes to crop production, they are expected to

run an economically feasible operation, maintain crop yields and quality, reduce inputs,

meet environmental objectives, reduce risk of crop failure, and compete on a global

market (Costanzo, et al. 2013). Agrobiodiversity in wheat production is the promotion of

biodiverse wheat varieties while harnessing ecosystem services which promotes genetic

variant varieties that are ultimately more resistant to changing conditions presented by

climate change (Costanzo, et al. 2013). These strategies have adopted sustainable or low

external input systems specifically. Functional Agrobiodiversity are ‘those elements of

biodiversity on the scale of agricultural fields or landscapes, which provide ecosystem

services that support sustainable agricultural production and can also deliver benefits to

the regional and global environment and the public at large’ (ELN-FAB, 2012).

Some of the benefits that Agrobiodiversity can bring to wheat crops englobes:

1. Weed Reduction

2. Nitrogen Use Efficiency

3. Abiotic Stress Tolerance

4. Disease and Pest Reduction

5. Yield and Yield Stability

Those advantages can improve the sustainability of cropping systems in the context of

low external inputs and unpredictable climate change (Costanzo, et al. 2013). Costanzo

and Paolo advocate for a more streamlined approach to employ these strategies.

European Learning Network on Functional AgroBiodiversity’s main goal is to help to

optimize agrobiodiversity benefits, promote sustainable agriculture and will encourage

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widespread uptake of biodiversity concepts, thereby also enhancing non-agronomic

ecosystem services (ELN-FAB, 2012).

They are:

• Educating and training farmers in combining high-yield and sustainable, efficient,

environmentally friendly farming. CAP offers the possibility to provide

environmental advice as part of the Farm Advice Systems (FAS)

• Turning international agreements into local action

Agrobiodiversity could be the solution that farmers in France should practice in order to

be more resilient against climate change. As mentioned before in this paper, the climate

can have a substantial effect on crops with conventional farming methods.

Changing traditional agrarian techniques for new ones (Agrobiodiversity) could

potentially become a way to achieve a sustainable, efficient, environmentally friendly

wheat production, and make farmers resilient to climate changes like heat waves.

Changing Nitrogen Application Levels:

Wheat crops require Nitrogen (N) for storage proteins in the grain and plant growth,

both vital quality attributes achieved by the application of Ammonium Nitrate (NH4).

Efficient management of N through agronomic practice and the use of appropriate

germplasm is essential for the sustainability of agricultural production. Research

conducted by Flaten and Amy Mangin shows that in Manitoba, Canada, the standard

recommendation for spring wheat was 2.5 pounds of N per bushel, the target yield was

not efficient. Their analysis of the problem concluded that at two pounds of N per bushel

of wheat produced, compared to the former rate of 2.5 pounds, shows an increase in

yield potential and therefore comes an increase in nitrogen use efficiency (Barker, 2019).

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N application rates are a lightning rod for criticism when it comes to agricultural

practices. Many say it isn’t sustainable as ecosystems lose resilience when N

application is synonymous with industrial farming practices. Figure 7 is the depiction

of N application rates in the ball-in- basin model of regime change (Walker & Salt Ch. 3,

2006).

Figure 7: Regime Change N Increase

The current regime of N application has ecosystems between phase B and phase C.

Increasing N application may be a good short-term solution but may ultimately shift

ecosystems into phase C or beyond. Applying additional N fertilizer applications might

not be a simple solution for climate change adaptation in major wheat‐producing

countries. France is an excellent example of reducing N fertilizer application rates; after

all, they have been doing it since the 1980’s (Asseng, et al, 2018).

Further Research and Development:

Gouache et al., explored many alternatives they define as planned adaptation solutions,

such as breeding/research programs focused on heat tolerance and wheat phenology

(Gouache et al, 2012). Planned approaches (breeding trials) may prove to be more

efficient than autonomous adaptation solutions (Gouache et al 2012, pp. 69). This is

interesting, because agrobiodiversity promotes breeding techniques similar to planned

approaches. The Ministry of Agriculture and Food in France could benefit from further

research in farming practices that increase moisture retention in soil and efficient water

delivery methods to wheat crops.

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Linking Objectives:

A joint approach could exist between agrobiodiversity and wheat phenology research.

Agrobiodiversity incorporates a natural approach to farming and an increase in genetic

diversity, which pairs well with finding climate-change resistant strains of wheat. The

combination of these two methods could be enhanced by CAP funding. Gouache et al.

found that genetic tolerance to heat stress proved to be the most efficient method of

adaptation.

What networks & resources exist?

• CAP Funding and Objectives

• European Learning Network on Functional AgroBiodiversity (ELN-FAB)

• ECNC-European Centre for Nature Conservation

• European Commission LIFE+ programme

• European Environment Agency (EEA)

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Gaps & Levers of Change

Gaps Levers of Change
Knowledge Gap on Educate people on genetically modified crops:
1
Genetically Modified Crops: Genetically modified crops are a part of our

Genetically modified crops everyday life. Almost every food we eat has been

have been looked down upon genetically modified in some way. Genetically

since their development. This is modified wheat plants are an important factor in

happening due to the unknown wheat production for the future. Modifying these

risks involved when using plants to allow them to respond positively to

genetically modified plants increases in temperature and decreases in

(Bruinsma, Kowalchuck, & rainfall would make production easier.

Veen, 2003). Educating large groups of people on genetically

modified crops would allow for an increase in

usage. It is shown that you can determine if the

modified plant will harm soil ecosystems

through certain indicators (Bruinsma,

Kowalchuck, & Veen, 2003).

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2 Land Availability Issues: Prioritize land for food production:

Plots of land are continually Biofuel crops take more energy to produce than

being used for biofuel crops. they put out. The land that these crops are being

This then decreases the land produced on could be used for production of

availability for crop crops to feed people. Around the world there is a

production and increases the growing food scarcity issue. It is said that food

price of wheat (Brisson, et al, production must increase by 50% by 2050 to feed

2010). There is also a land the world's population (Chakraborty & Newton,

availability issue due to the 2011). With increasing temperatures and

increasing population. decreasing rainfall due to climate change, this

Increasing population problem needs to be solved early on. Land needs

numbers means there is a to be prioritized for food production. This can be

need for an increase in food done through implementation of new laws. These

production. laws would state that a percentage of viable land

must be used for wheat/food production to

combat the growing food scarcity issues.

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Stakeholder Collaborations:
Stakeholders must work together:
3 There are a large number of
For this large industry to work, stakeholders
stakeholders present in the
must work together. This means that every
wheat industry. With this
portion of the industry that could be affected
amount, differing opinions are
by any sort of decision is kept in the loop. It
likely to come about. Differing
also means that public participation is
opinions can lead to conflict in
encouraged and accepted. Everyone working
the industry.
together creates a smooth process. It also

creates a better understanding of how each

stakeholder perceives "climate change,

adaptation policies and the factors or

predictors influencing their support for

adaptation policies" (Iglesias & Garrote,

2015).

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Reflection
Wheat is produced across the world and is a large portion of everyone's dietary needs. Crop

production is in danger with the rising effects of climate change. As a group we thought it

would be interesting to investigate the impacts climate change has on wheat production. We

decided to focus on France due to the abundance of research done on crop production in the

area. We also felt that it was important to investigate this due to the prairies being a larger

wheat producer.

Research was started with finding a location that was more susceptible to climate change effects

on crop production. Through reading an abundance of articles about wheat production in

various locations, France arose as a common factor. Reading different articles also allowed us to

get a sense of the wording used in the agriculture industry. This wording then allowed us to

further our research with more detail. Overall, research for this topic went rather well due to

the abundance of research done on the crop industry.

One thing that we learned in the process of researching the topic, was that wheat should not be

fed to cows. This is due to the fast rate of starch digestion, which leads to digestive problems in

the cows. Another thing that we learned throughout the process is how much farmers do for us.

Farmers are a crucial part to the survival of the human population. An important factor that we

learned about was the increase in carbon and its benefits to wheat production. There is

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currently double the availability of carbon in the atmosphere. This availability has allowed

the wheat plants to grow faster.

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