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CFA Level II Mock Exam 5 - Solutions (PM)
CFA Level II Mock Exam 5 - Solutions (PM)
FinQuiz.com
CFA Level II Mock Exam 5
June, 2016
Revision 1
Tim Johnston works for Precision Investment Advisors Association (PIAAS), a financial
management firm targeting small and medium sized institutional clients. Even though
PIAAS is under no obligation to confer to the laws and practices set forth by the CFA
Institute Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional Conduct, Johnston strongly
believes that doing so would contribute positively towards PIAAS’s global competitive
standing. As a member of the CFA Institute, Johnston plans to encourage top
management to adopt the Standards and to align PIAAS’s policies and practices to better
match employer responsibilities set forth by the CFA Institute Standards of Professional
Conduct. During his meeting with Jeremy West, PIAAS’s CEO, Johnston handed over a
copy of the Code and Standards. Being a proponent of an ethical workplace, West
acknowledged Johnston’s concerns and appointed him at the task of analyzing current
firm policies. Johnston was predominantly concerned with how the firm’s client base was
handled by the portfolio managers at the firm, and whether policies related to client
dealing were in accordance with the Code and Standards. Johnston spent a week
analyzing manager-client relationships and gathered the following information:
Observation 3: “David Leach is a financial analyst at PIAAS who covers the U.S.
consumer industry and prepares research reports recommending
appropriate investment decisions regarding such stocks. Due to an
extensive review process at the firm, the recommendations floated by
Leach reach clients after three days. Leach has just changed his
recommendation for the Fruity Fun Inc.(FFI) stock from buy to sell.
Leach immediately initiates the distribution process, and makes sure that
the changed recommendation is distributed in an equitable manner to all
concerned clients. A day after the distribution, one of Leach’s clients
invested in FFI advises Leach to increase his portfolio holding of the
stock from 5% to 7%. To honor client directive, Leach feels obligated to
do as asked.”
Observation 5: “Cara Davies, an analyst at the firm, just found out that Arrow
Enterprises, is planning to issue equity to fund an expansion project.
Davies considers this issue as the perfect opportunity to increase returns
for five of her clients for whom this issue is appropriate. As she
indicates the lucrative nature of the investment to her clients, they
oversubscribe the issue. Cara allocates the partially executed orders
among the participating client accounts pro rata on the basis of order
size. In addition, three of the largest clients, representing more than 85%
of the order receive a slightly lower execution price and are charged a
somewhat lower commission.”
Observation 6: “Jeremy West, the CEO, has just offered a new fund to the public. To
attract clients to this new fund, West offers lower than average
management fees. This is because the fund includes three top performing
diversified funds managed by PIAAS’s competitor. The opportunity to
gain access to these funds, accompanied with lower management fees,
contributes to a large influx of clients. With hopes to add to PIAAS’s
client base, West welcomes every client expressing interest in the fund.”
In addition to the above observations, Johnston discovers that West had been hired by a
law firm to testify as a financial expert witness against fraudulent accounting practices in
Crossbow Enterprises. West states that given his personal research, his opinion may
prove detrimental to the law firm. West feels confused how to act with loyalty and care
for his client without comprising his ethical stance.
A. Yes.
B. Only with respect to Observation 1.
C. Neither with respect to Observation 1 nor with respect to Observation 2.
3. Kurtz has most likely violated Standard lll-A of the Standards of Professional
Conduct by:
A. Yes.
B. Only with respect to the distribution of the partially executed order.
C. Only with respect to the execution price and commissions.
5. In attracting clients to the new fund offered, West has most likely:
6. In the legal proceedings confronting West, if West decides to testify against the
law firm he will most likely:
“The conversion can be made using either current market exchange rates or the exchange
rates implied by purchasing power parity (PPP). I prefer using the market exchange rates
because they account for a wide range of goods and services and express market
expectations. On the other hand, PPP only rarely ever holds in the short-term, and is only
applicable over significantly long investment horizons.”
As a second step, Franco used his estimated economic growth figures to determine stock
prices and stock market growth. He made the following comment:
“Over long horizons, the percentage change in stock market value will equal the
percentage change in GDP because the share of profits in GDP and the change in the
price earnings multiple over the long-term would be approximately zero.”
As they developed their forecasts, Derry inquired about the determinants of a country’s
long-run economic growth. Franco stated that a number of theoretical explanations
existed to explain the relationship between a country’s output and inputs. Talking about
the Cobb-Douglas production function, Franco made the following comment:
“When the share of GDP paid out to the suppliers of capital is close to zero, diminishing
marginal returns to labor will be quite significant.”
“I believe that if the share of GDP paid out to the suppliers of capital is close to one, the
capital elasticity of output would be high.”
After expressing his conclusions about the growth rate of Germany and possible potential
investments in the country, Franco asked Derry to obtain labor workforce information in
Brazil and Mexico, two of the developing economies. Exhibit 2 displays the data
accumulated by Derry.
Exhibit 2
Labor Input Data in Brazil and Mexico (2011)
Brazil Mexico
Population 50.5 million 54.5 million
Immigration (2005-2011) 6.758 million 2.198 million
% of population under 15 22 17
% of population over 60 12 18
Male participation rate 70% 90%
Female participation rate 90% 70%
Unemployment rate 23% 32%
Income tax rate 35% 20%
Derry was performing his own analysis on the investment outlook of two alternative
economies. Exhibit 3 displays the data he is analyzing.
Exhibit 3
Macroeconomic Data
Country A Country B
Growth in labor
4.02% 8.88%
productivity
Growth in TFP 1.76% 2.32%
In addition, Derry gathered some important pointers about the path of the future economy
of Spain. A few of them are given below:
Derry plans to discuss these pointers with Franco toward the determination of a plausible
future outlook for Spain’s economy.
7. Is Franco most likely correct with respect to his comments about the conversion of
GDP and stock market value?
8. With respect to the Cobb-Douglas production function, are Franco and Derry most
likely correct?
9. With respect to Germany, the expected total factor productivity growth is closest
to:
A. 4.88%, and an increase in TFP will not affect the relative productivity of
the other inputs.
B. 4.72%, and an increase in TFP boosts the relative productivity of the other
inputs.
C. 2.90%, and a permanent increase in TFP increases the level of potential
GDP.
10. Which one of the following comparative statements is most consistent with the
data given for the Brazilian and Mexican economies?
11. Derry’s analysis of the two economies will least likely lead him to believe that:
12. Using the data provided about Spain’s economy, which of the following
investments would be most attractive?
A. Stocks.
B. Bonds.
C. Neither stocks nor bonds.
Black-Crow Investments (BCI) is a financial institution with a huge client base that
includes high net worth private wealth clients and institutional portfolios. Irene Crawford
manages BCI’s institutional wing with over 30 portfolios and fifteen portfolio managers.
During her regular analysts’ performance review, Crawford met with Riley Padget, an
analyst with a $50 million assigned portfolio related to a U.S. based endowment fund.
Orange Products (ORP) is one of the firms that the fund is invested in. ORP has recently
acquired 80% of the outstanding shares of Ginger Company (GCO) to diversify its asset
base and increase profitability. Padget was attempting to quantify the effect of this
acquisition on ORP’s financial statements. Exhibit 1 displays the financial information
from the two companies immediately prior to the exchange.
Exhibit 1
Pre-Acquisition Financial Information (in US thousands)
ORP Book
GCO’s Book Values
Values
Cash and receivables 10,000 5,000
Inventory 17,000 6,500
PP&E 42,000 8,000
Long-term debt 25,000 2,100
Capital stock ($1 par) 4,000 2,000
Additional paid-in-
7,000 4,400
capital
Retained earnings 33,000 11,000
The fair value of GCO’s property is $22,000 and of GCO’s long-term debt is $3,500. For
the remaining numbers, book values equal fair market values. ORP issued 2 million
shares of par value common stock. The market value of ORP’s shares at the time of
acquisition was $25/share. The fair market value for GCO’s shares was $45 million.
After a comprehensive estimation of the acquisition value, Padget prepared a report that
he presented to Crawford for review. In the report, Padget wrote the following
statements:
Statement 1: “Even though the net income shown on ORP’s consolidated statements
would be the same regardless of whether the full goodwill or partial
goodwill method is used, under the partial goodwill method, return on
assets and return on equity ratios will be higher.”
Statement 2: “Relative to the acquisition method, under the pooling of interests method,
although net income would be the same, assets would understated, and
return on assets would be overstated.”
In addition to the evaluation of ORP’s acquisition of GCO, Padget was also performing a
goodwill impairment test of the cash-generating unit of a U.S. based interior décor firm.
The unit has a carrying value of $2.5 million which included $1,300,000 of allocated
goodwill. The recoverable amount of the unit was estimated to be $2 million. Padget
estimated that the fair value of the unit equaled its recoverable amount, and the fair value
of its identifiable net assets as of the impairment test date was $1.2 million. An initial
review of the estimated numbers confirmed Padget’s belief that goodwill was impaired
and needed to be written down.
As Crawford continued with reading Padget’s report, she wondered how the acquisition
would be reported under the pooling of interests method. Although the method was no
longer allowed for accounting for business combinations, Crawford wanted to be aware
of the method’s consequences on consolidated financial statements and reported figures.
In addition, she wondered how contingent liabilities and indemnification assets would be
accounted for in an acquisition. Since Padget was the expert at the valuation and
reporting of acquisitions, Crawford asked him. Padget answered with the following
comments:
Comment 1: “If the financial statements are prepared in accordance with U.S. GAAP,
only those contingent liabilities are recognized at of the acquisition date
that are probable and can be reasonable estimated.”
Comment 2: “If the acquire guarantees that its contingent liability will not exceed a
specified amount, the acquirer would recognize an indemnification asset
and only a partial contingent liability. If fair values are used, both the asset
and the liability would be reported at fair values.”
13. Using the information in Exhibit 1, the total assets on the consolidated balance
sheet under partial goodwill method will most likely be:
14. Using the information in Exhibit 1, the total equity on the consolidated balance
sheet under U.S. GAAP will be closest to:
A. $103 million.
B. $111 million.
C. 118.4 million.
A. Statement 1 only.
B. Statement 2 only.
C. Neither statement 1 nor statement 2.
16. Assuming that a cash-generating unit and a reporting unit are analogous terms, the
goodwill impairment under U.S. GAAP will be:
17. Using Exhibit 1 and ignoring non-controlling interests, if the pooling of interests
method was used to account for the business combination, total stockholders’
equity on the consolidated financial statements would be:
A. Comment 1 only.
B. Comment 2 only.
C. both comments 1 and 2.
Azure Products Incorporated (API) is a firm that manufactures educational toys for
children below the age of fifteen. Lemay collected the following information from API’s
financial statements.
Exhibit 1
Selected Financial Statement Information for the year 2011
(in US$ ‘000 except ratio information)
Earnings $1,100
Debt/Assets Ratio 0.40
Sales $32,500
Capital expenditures as a percent of sales 5.00%
Target payout ratio 30%
Highest historical payout ratio 50%
Lowest historical payout ratio 22%
In addition to the above data, Lemay also included the following excerpt from API’s
annual report as part of analysis:
“API expects earnings to increase by 2% over the coming year. Sales are expected to
increase by 5% over the same year and capital expenditures would increase to 8% of
sales. API plans to issue a bond worth $516,000 to finance part of this outflow.”
Apart from assisting Peterman with the pension portfolio, Leman is working with Greg
Smith to assess a statutory merger between ELX Products and WinBit Associates, with
ELX as the acquirer. The transaction is to be a stock purchase. Smith has estimated the
following pre-merger values for the respective firms.
Exhibit 2
Merger Information
ELX Products WinBit Associates
Question 1: “If markets are efficient, what will the post-merger P/E ratio of the merged
company equal?”
Question 2: “If investors believe that there are expected gains from synergy, how will
the share price of ELX Products react after the merger?”
As Leman investigated the merger data to answer Smith’s questions, he read an article
describing the various types of mergers and their valuation procedures. The article made
the following comments:
Statement 1: “The industry life cycle stage suggests the types of mergers that would be
prominent amongst companies within that industry. For example, if an
industry is in the mature growth phase or is approaching stabilization and
market maturity, vertical mergers would be most prominent.”
Statement 2: “Fair price amendments are shark repellents that protect against price
declines and two-tiered tender offers.”
While describing M&A transaction characteristics, the article presented the following
example based on two companies operating in the U.S. markets:
“An acquirer plans to acquire 80% of the target’s assets. The target has several
capitalized lease obligations shown on its balance sheet, and several contingent liabilities
not included in the statements. The corporate tax rate for both companies is 30% equal to
the shareholder tax rate in the country. The target has shown considerable accumulated
tax losses in the current year.”
Finally, the article presented a list of some other takeover defenses including:
• Poison puts.
• Leveraged recapitalization.
• Leveraged buyout.
19. For Expo Enterprises, assuming the firm uses a target payout adjustment model,
the expected dividend for the current year will be closest to:
A. $7.076.
B. $7.266.
C. $7.756.
20. Given the facts about Azure Products Incorporated, the most likely implied
dividend payout ratio for the coming year is closest to:
A. 0%.
B. 36%.
C. 22%.
21. The best answer to Smith’s questions is that the P/E ratio would equal:
A. Statement 1 only.
B. Statement 2 only.
C. neither Statement 1 nor Statement 2.
23. With respect to the example presented in the article, which of the following forms
of acquisition would be most suitable for the acquirer?
A. Stock purchase.
B. Asset purchase.
C. Cash purchase.
24. Which of the following takeover defense (s) mentioned in the article would most
likely raise the cost of acquisition?
Conclusion 1: “Assuming that other financials remain unchanged and demand is price
inelastic, if an increase in the input costs for CFB is completely passed on
to consumers, the gross profit margin would decrease, but the net profit
would remain unchanged.”
Conclusion 2: “If demand for CFB’s products is unit elastic, even if an increase in input
costs is passed on to consumers, revenues will not benefit.”
Scenario 1: “The input prices will increase by 3.0% but prices will increase by 2.0%. In
addition, sales volume will grow by 1.5%.”
Scenario 2: “Both input prices and sales prices would increase by 4.0%. However, sales
volume would decrease by 5.0%.”
Scenario 3: “The price increase and volume growth for CFB due to inflation will be
1.0% and 7.0% respectively. Input prices, on the other hand, would grow by
4.0%.”
Nelson also gathered data on the current financial status of CFB. Exhibit 1 displays this
information.
Exhibit 1
CFB Data (in $ millions)
Sales 45,091
While Nelson was evaluating the effect of inflation on CFB’s profit margins, Vivian Jim,
part of ASE Fund’s management team, updated him on the expected change in the fund’s
composition. The fund was to cash out of the stock investment in UpSize Inc. due to poor
risk-return tradeoff, and planned to invest the proceedings in the retail industry. Nelson
was advised to perform a comparative analysis of two retail companies, for which he was
provided with the data presented in Exhibit 2.
Exhibit 2
Selected Financial Information for Comparative Analysis (in ‘000)
Company A Company B
Net Sales $50,000 $150,000
COGS $18,500 $89,000
Selling, general and administrative $22,000 $25,000
expenses
Depreciation $2,000 $5,000
*Both companies have no other operating expenses
For an inclusive comparison, Nelson reviewed the firms’ notes to financial statements for
a decomposition of the line item titled ‘cost of goods sold’. The notes revealed that the
contribution of various inputs to COGS varied considerably for the two firms. As he
continued to analyze the impact of each element of COGS on the firms’ profit margins,
Nelson noted the following assuming a similar increase in input prices and an inability to
pass it through to consumers:
Observation 1: “If a component cost as a percentage of sales is equal for two companies,
the percentage decline in the gross margin and operating margin for a
given rise in its price will be the same for both the companies.”
Observation 2: “Assuming a price increase for only one component of COGS, if the
price increase relates to the largest component of COGS, the gross
margin decline will be the largest. Also, on a relative basis, the higher the
gross profit of a firm, the more severe the impact of a rise in input
prices.”
Observing Nelson’s analytical abilities, Jim was greatly impressed. Consequently, she
requested him to assist her in one of her assignments as a personal favor. The task
involved an analysis of three companies, each operating in different sectors of the U.S.
market. To properly value the companies’ stocks, Nelson asked Jim to bring in the past
five years financial data of each firm. In addition, Jim presented the following additional
information for more accurate valuations:
• Firm A has been experiencing a decline in sales prices for the past few years, and
this decline is expected to continue over the near future.
• Firm B’s suppliers are expected to experience a technological advancement that
would reduce their costs considerably. Part of this reduction in costs will be
transferred to the firm, which in turn, will affect sales prices.
• Government regulation in Firm C’s industry has always been intense and tilted
towards benefiting consumers. Global regulation has also impacted industry
revenues, but not so much for the firm.
Nelson planned to use this information and his knowledge of discounted valuation
procedures to estimate an intrinsic value for each of the firms.
A. Conclusion 2 only.
B. Both conclusions 1 and 2.
C. Neither conclusion 1 nor conclusion 2.
26. With regards to Country Fresh Beverages, which of the above scenarios will
result in the highest gross margin for the firm?
A. Scenario 1.
B. Scenario 2.
C. Scenario 3.
27. With regards to Country Fresh Beverages, which of the above scenarios will
result in the highest gross profit for the firm?
A. Scenario 1.
B. Scenario 2.
C. Scenario 3.
28. Assuming 5% inflation for all costs except depreciation, and that companies are
not able to pass on this increase through higher prices, using the information
provided in Exhibit 2, Company:
A. Observation 1 only.
B. Observation 2 only.
C. Both observations 1 and 2.
30. Nelson’s source of financial information to aid valuation will be most appropriate
for:
Graham Clark is a market analyst and financial advisor by profession with a personal
portfolio worth $75,000 invested in stocks, bonds, emerging market equities, and REITs.
Clark had planned for a vacation a couple of months back, and is now enjoying his week
off from work. During this time, Clark reviews the performance of his own portfolio,
especially the portion invested in U.S. equities. One particular investment—the stock of
Speed Auto Products (SAP)—particularly catches Clark’s interest owing to its past trend
of return and risk. As a strong proponent of market-based valuation, Clark is determined
to use the price-earnings multiple to appraise the value of his investment in SAP. To
initiate his evaluation, Clark uses the data provided in Exhibit 1.
Exhibit 1
Earnings per share data for Speed Auto Products
First two First Second
2010 quarters of quarter of quarter of
2010 2011 2011
Reported EPS $12.15 $5.50 $4.50 $5.24
Clark believes that for the second quarter of 2011, a number of items included in the EPS
figure are transitory in nature. To only include in his analysis components that will persist
in the future, Clark gathers the following information:
§ The earnings per share figure includes gain from the sale of unused machinery of
$1.22/share.
§ SAP has determined that the net book value of its welding equipment is lower
than its replacement value. For this reason, an asset write-down of $1.75/share is
included in reported EPS.
§ The two step process of checking for goodwill impairment has resulted in a loss
of $1.88/share.
§ SAP has increased its estimate of the useful lives of some of its assembly
equipment from ten to fifteen years. Clark believes that this decrease in
depreciation of $0.75/share is unjustifiable.
Additionally, Clark analyzes the strategic stance of the firm and discovers the following:
• SAP has experienced significant supplier power over the past couple of years. To
mitigate this effect, about three years ago, SAP engaged in backward integration
to not only reduce supplier control but also to increase the quality of its products.
• SAP’s book value per share has been following a stable, rising trend over the past
five years, with a rise of 120%. EPS follows a similar, unwavering pattern.
• SAP offers its executives with stock options as bonuses, in addition to the basic
salary. SAP’s capital structure also contains a minimal amount of convertible
bonds.
Exhibit 2
Selected Financial Information for SAP as of 31 December 2011
Long-term dividend payout ratio 55%
Market price per share $186/share
Forward PEG ratio 0.77
Beta 0.90
Market risk premium 10.0%
Risk-free rate 5.0%
Long-term growth rate 7.0%
Exhibit 3
Valuation Data for the Automotive Industry (December 31 2011)
Five-year EPS
Company Forward P/E Beta
growth rate
Total-X 14.68 15.00% 1.12
Lastly, Clark contacted Bryan Burger, a research expert, to provide him with data on
SAP’s historical P/Es. Burger presented the following Exhibit.
Exhibit 4
Historical P/Es for SAP
2010 2009 2008 2007 2006
While in conversation with Burger, Clark asks for Burger’s stance on SAP stock’s
valuation. Based on his own P/E analysis, Burger provides Clark with an estimate of
intrinsic value. After hearing what Burger has to say, Clark thinks to himself:
“I believe Burger’s estimate of intrinsic value is overstated.”
31. The trailing P/E for SAP as of the end of the second quarter of 2011 using core
earnings is closest to:
A. 8.36.
B. 8.65.
C. 9.37.
32. The most appropriate measure of EPS to determine SAP’s P/E multiple is:
A. 6.43.
B. 7.86.
C. 8.41.
34. Based on peer-group comparison, the stock that represents the most
undervaluation is the stock of:
A. SAP.
B. Total-X.
C. Pace-Q.
35. Assuming equivalent EPS forecasts, Clark’s belief about Burger’s estimate of
intrinsic value will least likely be true if, in contrast to Burger, Clark has used:
36. Based on historical values as a benchmark and using SAP’s core EPS as of the
end of the 2nd Quarter of 2011, SAP’s stock is most likely:
A. undervalued.
B. overvalued.
C. either overvalued or undervalued.
Marc Stanco, an equity analyst at Blue Sphere Investments (BSIN), specializes in the
pharmaceutical and health care industry in the U.S. and abroad. Formerly, Stanco has
always used the bottom-up approach in his stock selection and investment decision
making, and, in doing so, has managed to realize reasonable returns for his clients.
However, owing to a recent trend of falling returns, Stanco plans to use a hybrid
approach in assessing the suitability of investment options. Primarily, he wants to
develop a good understanding of the root causes of profitability in the health care
technology industry in Russia, along with the industry’s competitive structure. For this,
Stanco requested the industry analysis department at BSIN to provide him with a
comprehensive evaluation of the industry. A few days later, Stanco received the report.
Exhibit 1 displays an excerpt from the report elucidating the forces operating in the health
care technology industry.
Exhibit 1
Excerpt from “The Russian Health Care Technology Industry Report”
“……Some couple of years back, the health care technology industry was still in its
developmental stages. However, recently, the industry picked up and enjoyed high
growth and increased profitability owing to the increased reliance on medical and health
equipment of hospitals and therapeutic clinics. The industry is characterized by the
emergence of many new firms offering novel products marked with innovation and
creativity. Diagnostic software, centralized patient information databases, electronic
checks and balances, and a 24-hr patient-doctor communication are some of the few
pioneering products offered by the industry. Instead of physical capital, start-ups need
professional expertise and originality to develop products that could be incorporated by
hospitals and health care endowments. Hence, they have competed with incumbents on
the basis of superior products, with many incumbents being taken down by new firms
offering better software. Due to the nature of its customers’ operations, the accuracy and
quality of the industry’s products is critical. The administrative and management
capabilities of hospitals depend on such outsourced products and any lack of quality
could prove detrimental to ultimate consumers. Once a health care facility adopts an
application, replacing it involves considerable time and effort, which is why they take
their time searching for the best possible option. Over the years, the industry has seen a
rise in firms, with competition being in flux. The industry has also experienced a
relatively volatile and unstable demand pattern……”
Stanco used this report to establish his opinion about the future profitability of the
industry, and the competitive underpinnings in play. In addition to the above report,
Stanco collected the annual reports of a few successful firms operational in the sector.
Exhibit 2 displays an excerpt from the ‘Management Discussion & Analysis” of
Equilateral Technologies (EQT), one of the pioneers in the industry.
Exhibit 2
Excerpt from MD&A of EQT
“….To ensure success, our top management works with the board to marshal resources
and plan thoroughly so that our strategy is not poorly executed. This involves successive
rounds of planning, the use of quantitative methods and special analytical software to
project well into the future….”
Stanco wondered how much EQT’s planning technique would contribute to its success.
37. The Russian health care industry’s barriers to entry are most likely:
A. Low.
B. High.
C. Modest.
38. Which of the following best describes the intensity of buyer power and the threat
of substitutes apparent in the Russian health care industry?
39. In the Russian health care industry, rivalry among competitors is most likely:
40. Which of the following strategic styles would have the best chances of success in
the Russian health care industry?
A. Adaptive.
B. Shaping.
C. Visionary.
41. If Stanco plans to value a newcomer in the Russian health care industry he should
most likely employ:
42. The top management and the board of directors at Equilateral Technologies
(EQT) have most likely agreed to follow:
SouthAM Financials (SAF) is a financial firm which specializes in the valuation and
analysis of fixed-income securities. Lara Gavins is SAF’s senior manager. Gavins is
preparing introductory class for trainees in which she aims to address the following
objectives:
Objective 1: With the aid of a forward pricing model, explore arbitrage opportunities
using zero-coupon securities and hypothetical forward contracts on default
and interest-free loans.
Objective 3: Demonstrate how shaping risk can be managed using key rate durations for a
$300,000 portfolio comprising 1-, 4- and 8-year zero-coupon bonds.
To achieve her first objective, Gavins constructs three hypothetical loan contracts
(Exhibit 1) and collects data with respect to the relevant discount factors (Exhibit 2). In
addition to exploring arbitrage opportunities, she also aims to demonstrate how a
reinvestment rate can be determined using the forward rate model.
Exhibit 1
Hypothetical Loan Contracts
Year of Loan
Initiation; From Quoted
Contract Loan Tenor (Years) Today (T0) Contract Price*
A 3 2 0.8250
B 4 1 0.7769
C 4 3 0.6233
*Contract price is quoted per $1 of notional principal
Exhibit 2
Discount Factors
Maturity (Years) Rate (%)
1 2.5
2 3.0
3 4.0
4 4.9
5 5.7
6 6.9
7 8.8
To achieve her second objective, Gavins prepares three questions which she intends to
present to the trainees:
Question 1: In which scenario is the swap curve a more relevant measure of the time
value of money compared to the government’s cost of borrowing?
Swap 3: Four-year fixed-for-floating LIBOR swap with a spread of 120 basis points.
To achieve her third objective, Gavins presents key rate durations and factor movements
for three maturity points on the yield curve (Exhibit 3). She aims to evaluate how a
steepening of the yield curve, by 200 basis points, will affect the value of the identified
portfolio.
Exhibit 3
Key Rate Durations and Factor Movements
Maturity point 1 4 8
Key rate duration 0.33 1.33 2.67
Factor movements -1 0 1
43. Based on the information presented Exhibit 1 and 2; does an arbitrage opportunity
exist with respect to contract A?
A. No.
B. Yes; the forward contract can be sold as part of an arbitrage strategy.
C. Yes; the forward contract can be purchased as part of an arbitrage strategy.
44. Based on the information presented in Exhibit 1 and 2 and the forward rate model,
the reinvestment rate calculated for contract C is:
A. 10.49%.
B. 12.54%.
C. 17.07%.
45. The relevant curve and process employed to generate the rates in Exhibit 2,
respectively, is:
curve: process:
A. Par extrapolation.
B. Par bootstrapping.
C. forward extrapolation.
A. three-year swap.
B. four-year swap.
C. five-year swap.
48. Using Exhibit 3, the sensitivity of the steepness movement (DS) as a result of
yield curve steepening upwards by 200 basis points is closest to:
A. 1.17.
B. 2.33.
C. 4.67.
Stern and Wiley Associates (S&WA) is a U.S. based financial services firm established
by entrepreneurs Mathew Stern and John Wiley. S&WA provides institutional investors
financial counseling and risk management services. Premier Hotels (PREM) owns and
operates a vast network of hotels in the northern part of the U.S, and is one of S&WA’s
most profitable clients. During the annual review meeting with PREM’s CFO Bernard
Winston, Winston stated that due to success in local markets, PREM was planning to go
global by opening its first international hotel in the United Kingdom. Based on pro forma
statements, PREM expects to receive €25 million in profits from the hotel and related
services in about 230 days. Skeptical about the future path of the euro relative to the
dollar, PREM advices Wiley to hedge PREM’s exposure to the volatility in the euro-
dollar exchange rate. Winston expresses the following concerns in achieving this
objective:
After discussing a few other details, Winston states that PREM expects a summary of the
hedging strategy from S&WA in a couple of days. As the meeting concludes, Wiley calls
for two of the firm’s senior most financial associates and asks them to assess the
appropriate risk-management technique before obtaining quotations from derivative
dealers. The associates present Wiley with the data given in Exhibits 1 and 2.
Exhibit 1
Information as of February 1, 2011
U.S. interest rate 7.5%
U.K interest rate 6.0%
Current spot exchange rate $1.15/€
*Interest rates are expected to remain fixed over the period under study. The rates are
based on annual compounding.
Exhibit 2
Information as of February 1, 2011
Spot exchange rate after 80 days $1.05/€
Spot exchange rate after 100 days $0.95/€
Spot exchange rate at expiration $1.16
After reviewing the data, Winston concludes that a forward contract on the euro in terms
of dollars would be appropriate for eliminating PREM’s risk concerns. After contacting
numerous dealers, Winston decides to transact with Double-X Dealers (DXD), that quote
a price of 1.16 $/€ for a contract with the required maturity. Winston believes that the
probability of default with DXD is only 30%, whereas for other dealers with similar
quotations, the probability ranges from 40%-60%. Using his own analysis, given the
information gathered, Winston then begins preparing the presentation to be made to
PREM’s board in the scheduled meeting.
49. As of February 1 2011, given the information about the forward contract, the:
50. Assuming that PREM follows Winston’s advice, the contract value to PREM 80
days after contract initiation is closest to:
A. $2,526,751.
B. $2,631,977.
C. -$2,212,593.
51. The first marking-to-market of the forward contract will reveal an expected credit
loss to PREM closest to:
A. $5,062,091.
B. $5,005,240.
C. $1,501,572.
52. Given the information in the vignette, the most appropriate derivative to hedge
PREM’s risk would be a(an):
A. option.
B. futures contract.
C. forward contract.
53. If after the first mark-to-market, the revised forward price is $0.961/€, which of
the following describing the settlement between the long and the short parties to
contract is most accurate?
A. PREM will pay $2,764,918 to the dealer before the revision is made.
B. PREM will receive $4,731,015 from the dealer before the revision is
made.
C. PREM will receive $4,848,501 from the dealer before the revision is
made.
54. Which of the following statements contrasting futures with forwards is most
consistent with the characteristics of such contracts?
Peter Davis, CFA, is a portfolio manager at Service Wealth Management (SWM). Davis
is preparing a presentation for his team of junior portfolio managers in which he aims to
demonstrate the potential benefits for investors in considering multiple risk dimensions
when modeling asset returns. He aims to achieve this by drawing a comparison between
multifactor models and CAPM. The opening statement of his presentation is as follows:
Statement: “Multifactor models allow investors to tilt away from a traditional money
market fund and gain portfolio exposure to numerous systematic and non-systematic risk
factors in order to enhance portfolio returns.”
• Jane works as a tax advisor at an audit firm. Her annual income is £68,000. Her
earnings are unable to sustain her lavish lifestyle.
• Carla runs her own dental practice. Her earnings are more than sufficient to
sustain her lifestyle. She has no other sources of income beyond her business
income.
• Kevin has inherited a significant sum of money from his deceased father’s estate.
Kevin is retired and has invested the amount received in his investment portfolio.
The investment income earned on his portfolio is more than sufficient to sustain
his lifestyle.
For the fixed-income allocation, Davis’ is inclined towards risky assets which will
provide a hedge against bad consumption outcomes. He evaluates three bond issues on
the basis of the covariance between Montgomery’s inter-temporal rate of substitution and
the future price of the issue. The exhibit below summarizes the results of his findings.
Exhibit: Covariances
For Potential Bond Issues
Bond Issue Covariance
1 + 135.0
2 - 120.6
3 - 190.4
Davis would like to build on his analysis and evaluate the impact of the three factors on
Montgomery’s inter-temporal rate of substitution:
Factor 2: Monetary authorities have raised the short-term risk-free rate in an effort to
boost savings and economic growth.
Factor 3: Economic analysts forecast that the output gap is projected to widen over the
course of the coming few months.
Davis concludes his search for potential securities with an analysis of commercial real
estate. Prior to selecting securities, he would like to ascertain how the asset class
performs during an economic recession. In addition, Davis would like to determine how
risk premiums demanded on the asset class fare relative to default-free government
bonds.
A. Yes
B. No, multifactor models do not allow investors to gain exposure to
systematic risk factors.
C. No, the CAPM assumes investors make an investment by combining the
risk-free asset with the market portfolio.
A. Jane.
B. Carla.
C. Kevin.
57. Using the data in Exhibit 1, Davis will conclude that the issue with the highest
risk premium is most likely:
A. 1.
B. 2.
C. 3.
58. Using the data in Exhibit 1, which bond issue will generate the highest returns
when the marginal utility of an investor’s consumption today is high?
A. 1
B. 2
C. 3
A. Factor 1.
B. Factor 2.
C. Factor 3.
60. Which of the following statements accurately compares commercial real estate to
equities or default-free government bonds?