Time (t) Sales (in PhP) Forecast Time (t) Sales (in PhP) Forecast

March May
1 4,500 9 5,250 5,200
2 3,500 4,500 10 5,300 5,250
3 3,600 3,500 11 5,300 5,300
4 4,700 3,600 12 5,300 5,300
April June
5 4,900 4,700 13 5,450 5,300
6 5,000 4,900 14 5,455 5,450
7 5,150 5,000 15 5,600 5,455
8 5,200 5,150 16 5,770 5,600
For the nex 5,770

Moving average unweighted for two periods

Time (t) Sales (in PhP) Forecast Time (t) Sales (in PhP) Forecast
March May
1 4,500 9 5,250 5,175
2 3,500 10 5,300 5,225
3 3,600 4,000 11 5,300 5,275
4 4,700 3,550 12 5,300 5,300
April June
5 4,900 4,150 13 5,450 5,300
6 5,000 4,800 14 5,455 5,375
7 5,150 4,950 15 5,600 5,453
8 5,200 5,075 16 5,770 5,528
For the nex 5,685

Moving average weighted for two periods

Time (t) Sales (in PhP) Weights Forecast Time (t) Sales (in PhP) Weights
March May
1 4,500 1 9 5,250
2 3,500 2 10 5,300
3 3,600 3,833.33 11 5,300
4 4,700 3,566.67 12 5,300
April June
5 4,900 4,333.33 13 5,450
6 5,000 4,833.33 14 5,455
7 5,150 4,966.67 15 5,600
8 5,200 5,100.00 16 5,770
For the next Peri 5,713
 Time (t) Sales (in PhP) Time (t) Sales (in PhP)
March May
1 4,500 9 5,250
2 3,500 10 5,300
3 3,600 11 5,300
4 4,700 12 5,300
April June
5 4,900 13 5,450
6 5,000 14 5,455
7 5,150 15 5,600
8 5,200 16 5,770

Forecast

3,450
5,233
5,283
5,300

5,300
5,400
5,453
5,552
 Created by Excel
Forecasting OM/QM version
Moving averages - 2 period moving average
5.2.116
Forecasting: Enter
Enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the data
data area
area
Submodel = 11;
Problem size @
Num pds 16 by 2 2 To change the number of periods use the scrollbar, do not change the cell itself

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Period 1 4500
Period 2 3500
Period 3 3600 4000 -400 400 160000 11.11%
Period 4 4700 3550 1150 1150 1322500 24.47%
Period 5 4900 4150 750 750 562500 15.31%
Period 6 5000 4800 200 200 40000 04.00%
Period 7 5150 4950 200 200 40000 03.88%
Period 8 5200 5075 125 125 15625 02.40%
Period 9 5,250 5175 75 75 5625 01.43%
Period 10 5,300 5225 75 75 5625 01.42%
Period 11 5,300 5275 25 25 625 00.47%
Period 12 5,300 5300 0 0 0 00.00%
Period 13 5,450 5300 150 150 22500 02.75%
Period 14 5,455 5375 80 80 6400 01.47%
Period 15 5,600 5452.5 147.5 147.5 21756.25 02.63%
Period 16 5,770 5527.5 242.5 242.5 58806.25 04.20%
Total 2820 3620 2261962.5 75.54%
Average 201.42857 258.57143 161568.75 05.40%
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 434.16227
Next period 5685
t change the cell itself
 Created by Excel
Forecasting OM/QM version Exponential smoothing
5.2.116
Enter
Enter alpha Forecasting:
alpha (between
(between 00 and
and 1),
1), enter
enter the
the past
past demands
demands in in the
the shaded
shaded column
column then
then enter
enter aa
starting
starting forecast. IfIf the
the starting
forecast.Submodel forecast
= 13;
starting forecast isis not
not in
in the
the first
first period
period then
then delete
delete the
the error
error analysis
analysis for
for
all
all rows
rows above
above the starting
Problem
the forecast.
startingsize @
forecast.
16 by 1
Alpha 0.9
Data Forecasts and Error Analysis
Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Period 1 4500 4500 0 0 0 00.00%
Period 2 3500 4500 -1000 1000 1000000 28.57%
Period 3 3600 3600 0 0 0 00.00%
Period 4 4700 3600 1100 1100 1210000 23.40%
Period 5 4900 4590 310 310 96100 06.33%
Period 6 5000 4869 131 131 17161 02.62%
Period 7 5150 4986.9 163.1 163.1 26601.61 03.17%
Period 8 5200 5133.69 66.31 66.31 4397.0161 01.28%
Period 9 5,250 5193.369 56.631 56.631 3207.0702 01.08%
Period 10 5,300 5244.3369 55.6631 55.6631 3098.3807 01.05%
Period 11 5,300 5294.4337 5.56631 5.56631 30.983807 00.11%
Period 12 5,300 5299.4434 0.556631 0.556631 0.3098381 00.01%
Period 13 5,450 5299.9443 150.05566 150.05566 22516.702 02.75%
Period 14 5,455 5434.9944 20.005566 20.005566 400.22268 00.37%
Period 15 5,600 5452.9994 147.00056 147.00056 21609.164 02.63%
Period 16 5,770 5585.2999 184.70006 184.70006 34114.111 0.03201041
Total 1390.5889 3390.5889 2439237 76.55%
Average 86.911805 211.91181 152452.29 04.78%
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 417.41009
Next period 5751.52999
 Created by Excel
Forecasting OM/QM version
Moving averages - 1 period moving average
5.2.116
Forecasting: Enter
Enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the data
data area
area
Submodel = 11;
Problem size @
Num pds 16 by 1 1 To change the number of periods use the scrollbar, do not change the cell itself

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Period 1 4500
Period 2 3500 4500 -1000 1000 1000000 28.57%
Period 3 3600 3500 100 100 10000 02.78%
Period 4 4700 3600 1100 1100 1210000 23.40%
Period 5 4900 4700 200 200 40000 04.08%
Period 6 5000 4900 100 100 10000 02.00%
Period 7 5150 5000 150 150 22500 02.91%
Period 8 5200 5150 50 50 2500 00.96%
Period 9 5,250 5200 50 50 2500 00.95%
Period 10 5,300 5250 50 50 2500 00.94%
Period 11 5,300 5300 0 0 0 00.00%
Period 12 5,300 5300 0 0 0 00.00%
Period 13 5,450 5300 150 150 22500 02.75%
Period 14 5,455 5450 5 5 25 00.09%
Period 15 5,600 5455 145 145 21025 02.59%
Period 16 5,770 5600 170 170 28900 02.95%
Total 1270 3270 2372450 74.98%
Average 84.666667 218 158163.33 05.00%
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 427.19569
Next period 5770
t change the cell itself
 Created by Excel
Forecasting OM/QM version Weighted moving averages - 2 period moving average
Forecasting:
5.2.116
Submodel = 12;
Enter
Enter the
the data
data in
in the
Problemthe shaded
size @ area.
shaded area. Enter
Enter weights
weights in
in
INCREASING
INCREASING order
order from
from top
top to
to bottom.
bottom.
16 by 2

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

Period Demand Weights Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Period 1 4500 1 2 periods ago
Period 2 3500 2 1 periods ago
Period 3 3600 3833.3333 -233.3333 233.33333 54444.444 06.48%
Period 4 4700 3566.6667 1133.3333 1133.3333 1284444 24.11%
Period 5 4900 4333.3333 566.66667 566.66667 321111.11 11.56%
Period 6 5000 4833.3333 166.66667 166.66667 27777.778 03.33%
Period 7 5150 4966.6667 183.33333 183.33333 33611.111 03.56%
Period 8 5200 5100 100 100 10000 01.92%
Period 9 5,250 5183.3333 66.666667 66.666667 4444.4444 01.27%
Period 10 5,300 5233.3333 66.666667 66.666667 4444.4444 01.26%
Period 11 5,300 5283.3333 16.666667 16.666667 277.77778 00.31%
Period 12 5,300 5300 0 0 0 00.00%
Period 13 5,450 5300 150 150 22500 02.75%
Period 14 5,455 5400 55 55 3025 01.01%
Period 15 5,600 5453.3333 146.66667 146.66667 21511.111 02.62%
Period 16 5,770 5551.6667 218.33333 218.33333 47669.444 03.78%
Total 2636.6667 3103.3333 1835261 63.98%
Average 188.33333 221.66667 131090.08 04.57%
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 391.07343
Next period 5713.33333
 Created by Excel
Forecasting OM/QM version Simple linear regression
5.2.116
IfIf this
this is
is trend Forecasting:
trend analysis
analysis then
then simply
simply enter
enter the
the past
past demands
demands in in the
the demand
demand
column.
column. IfIf this Submodel
this isis causal = 15; then
causal regression
regression then enter
enter the
the y,x
y,x pairs
pairs with
with yy first
first and
and enter
enter
aa newnew value
value of of xxProblem
at
at the
the bottom in
size @
bottom in order
order to
to forecast
forecast y.y.
16 by 10

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis

Period Demand (y) Period(x) Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Period 1 4500 1 4134.7794 365.22059 365.22059 133386.08 08.12%
Period 2 3500 2 4249.9338 -749.9338 749.93382 562400.74 21.43%
Period 3 3600 3 4365.0882 -765.0882 765.08824 585360 21.25%
Period 4 4700 4 4480.2426 219.75735 219.75735 48293.294 04.68%
Period 5 4900 5 4595.3971 304.60294 304.60294 92782.952 06.22%
Period 6 5000 6 4710.5515 289.44853 289.44853 83780.451 05.79%
Period 7 5150 7 4825.7059 324.29412 324.29412 105166.67 06.30%
Period 8 5200 8 4940.8603 259.13971 259.13971 67153.387 04.98%
Period 9 5,250 9 5056.0147 193.98529 193.98529 37630.294 03.69%
Period 10 5,300 10 5171.1691 128.83088 128.83088 16597.396 02.43%
Period 11 5,300 11 5286.3235 13.676471 13.676471 187.04585 00.26%
Period 12 5,300 12 5401.4779 -101.4779 101.47794 10297.773 01.91%
Period 13 5,450 13 5516.6324 -66.63235 66.632353 4439.8705 01.22%
Period 14 5,455 14 5631.7868 -176.7868 176.78676 31253.56 03.24%
Period 15 5,600 15 5746.9412 -146.9412 146.94118 21591.709 02.62%
Period 16 5,770 16 5862.0956 -92.09559 92.095588 8481.5974 01.60%
Total -9.095E-13 4197.9118 1808803 95.74%
Intercept 4019.625 Average -5.684E-14 262.36949 113050.18 05.98%
Slope 115.154412 Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 359.4443
Forecast 5977.25 17
Correlation 0.844795
Coefficient of determination 0.7136786
 Regression
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Column B Linear (Column B)