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RESEARCH AND PRACTICE

The US Air Force Suicide Prevention Program: Implications


for Public Health Policy
Kerry L. Knox, PhD, Steven Pflanz, MD, Gerald W. Talcott, PhD, Rick L. Campise, PhD, Jill E. Lavigne, PhD, Alina Bajorska, MS, Xin Tu, PhD,
and Eric D. Caine, MD

Although much is known about risk factors for


suicide, there are few examples of multifaceted, Objectives. We evaluated the effectiveness of the US Air Force Suicide
Prevention Program (AFSPP) in reducing suicide, and we measured the extent
sustainable programs for reducing morbidity
to which air force installations implemented the program.
and mortality attributable to suicide and sui-
Methods. We determined the AFSPP’s impact on suicide rates in the air force
cidal behaviors. The Air Force Suicide Pre- by applying an intervention regression model to data from 1981 through 2008,
vention Program (AFSPP) has been found to providing 16 years of data before the program’s 1997 launch and 11 years of data
have achieved significant relative risk reduc- after launch. Also, we measured implementation of program components at 2
tions of rates of suicide and other violence- points in time: during a 2004 increase in suicide rates, and 2 years afterward.
related outcomes, including accidental death Results. Suicide rates in the air force were significantly lower after the AFSPP
and domestic violence.1 The AFSPP, now in was launched than before, except during 2004. We also determined that the
its 13th year, is an example of a sustained program was being implemented less rigorously in 2004.
community-based effort that directly addresses Conclusions. The AFSPP effectively prevented suicides in the US Air Force.
The long-term effectiveness of this program depends upon extensive imple-
suicide as a public health problem.
mentation and effective monitoring of implementation. Suicides can be reduced
The AFSPP, launched in 1996 and fully
through a multilayered, overlapping approach that encompasses key prevention
implemented by 1997,1 emphasizes leadership
domains and tracks implementation of program activities. (Am J Public Health.
involvement and a community approach to re- 2010;100:2457–2463. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2009.159871)
ducing deaths from suicide. The program is
an integrated network of policy and education
that focuses on reducing suicide through the encourages help-seeking behavior, normalizes available at http://afspp.afms.mil/idc/groups/
early identification and treatment of those at risk. the experience of distress, promotes the de- public/documents/afms/ctb_056459.pdf).
It uses leaders as role models and agents of velopment of coping skills, fights the stigma We studied the effect of the AFSPP on air
change, establishes expectations for airman associated with receiving mental health care, force suicide rates from 1997, when the pro-
behavior regarding awareness of suicide risk and educates the community about the absence gram was fully implemented, through 2008. We
(i.e., policymaking), develops population skills of negative career consequences for seeking examined rates in the context of a 27-year
and knowledge (i.e., education and training), and receiving treatment. The program also period, from 1981 through 2008, during which
and investigates every suicide (i.e., outcomes seeks to improve outcomes in putative distal time there have been 3 military conflicts and
measurement). The program represents the air risk factors for suicide, including family vio- a major downsizing of the air force during the
force’s fundamental shift from viewing suicide lence, alcohol and substance use, diminishing early 1990s. This 27-year period provides an
and mental illness solely as medical problems and work performance, and depression. The result important historical perspective on suicide rates
instead seeing them as larger service-wide com- over the years has been the creation of an in an organization that underwent rapid, wide-
munity problems (Gen T.S. Moorman Jr, US Air atmosphere of responsibility and accountability spread change in force structure and that dealt
Force, personal communication, June 2001). for reducing deaths from suicide that includes with the onset and continuation of Operation
The program’s approach is predicated on new expectations for behavior at the commu- Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan in 2001 and
current knowledge that individuals at risk nity and individual levels. Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003. We also
exhibit warning signs and that intervention With little theoretical guidance available in conducted a naturalistic experiment from 2004
at an early stage lowers risk and results in 1996 to shape the program, the air force through 2006, when we measured the imple-
improved outcomes. Thus, the program aims developed an overlapping programmatic design, mentation of program components during and
to reduce stigma and encourage early help- resulting in far-reaching enhanced capacity of after a transient increase in suicide rates.
seeking behavior by changing social norms organizational responsiveness in critical areas at
through education and policy. This is achiev- multiple levels. These overlapping components METHODS
ed at the community level by changing the became known formally as the 11 Initiatives
community’s knowledge, values, beliefs, atti- of the Air Force Suicide Prevention Program, An intervention regression model2 was ap-
tudes, and behaviors concerning distress, help- which are described briefly in the box on the plied to evaluate the influence of the AFSPP on
seeking, and suicide. The AFSPP affirms and next page and in detail online (AFPAM 44–160; quarterly suicide rates over time, and to create

December 2010, Vol 100, No. 12 | American Journal of Public Health Knox et al. | Peer Reviewed | Research and Practice | 2457
RESEARCH AND PRACTICE

autoregressive errors (where the current error


The 11 Initiatives of the US Air Force Suicide Prevention Program term is a fraction of the previous error term
1. Leadership involvement: Air force leaders actively support the entire spectrum of suicide plus a random disturbance), using the ARIMA
prevention initiatives in the air force community. Regular messages from the chief of staff procedure.2 This model compares the preinter-
of the air force, other senior leaders, and base commanders motivate the air force vention quarterly mean suicide rate for all pre-
community to fully engage in suicide prevention efforts. vious time periods to the postintervention mean
2. Addressing suicide prevention through professional military education: Suicide prevention quarterly suicide rate for all quarters following
education is included in all formal military training. the start date of the intervention.
3. Guidelines for commanders on use of mental health services: Commanders receive training on An autocorrelation plot and the white noise
how and when to use mental health services, and their role in encouraging early help- test were used to check for stationarity and
seeking behavior. autocorrelation. Both first-order autoregressive
4. Community preventive services: Community prevention efforts carry more impact than and first-order moving average models were
treating individual patients 1 at a time. The Medical Expense and Performance Reporting estimated.2 The autoregressive model provided
System was updated to effectively track and encourage prevention activities. a better fit. The model was further examined for
5. Community education and training: Annual suicide prevention training is provided for all outliers, and its residuals were tested for any
military and civilian employees in the air force. remaining autocorrelation. Six outliers were
6. Investigative interview policy: The period following an arrest or investigative interview is detected and entered into the model as points
a high-risk time for suicide. Following any investigative interview, the investigator is with different means.
required to ‘‘hand off’’ the individual directly to the commander, first sergeant, or The intervention regression model con-
supervisor. The unit representative is then responsible for assessing the individual’s trolled for historical trends and seasonality, as
emotional state and contacting a mental health provider if any question about the well as for statistical white noise. The size of the
possibility of suicide exists. air force population, which decreased over
7. Trauma stress response (originally critical incident stress management): Trauma stress the study period, was confounded with time.
response teams were established worldwide to respond to traumatic incidents such as To determine whether population size was
terrorist attacks, serious accidents, or suicide. These teams help personnel deal with the correlated with suicide rates independently of
emotions they experience in reaction to traumatic incidents. the intervention, we modeled the annual sui-
8. Integrated Delivery System (IDS) and Community Action Information Board (CAIB): At the air cide rate as a function of annual population size
force, major command, and base levels, the CAIB and IDS provide a forum for the cross- and an indicator of the start of the AFSPP in
organizational review and resolution of individual, family, installation, and community issues 1997, using a regression model weighted by
that impact the readiness of the force and the quality of life for air force members and their the population size and with autocorrelated
families. The IDS and CAIB help coordinate the activities of the various base helping agencies errors using SAS Proc Mixed.3 The model was
to achieve a synergistic impact on community problems and reduce suicide risk. repeated using the change in population size.
9. Limited Privilege Suicide Prevention Program: Patients at risk for suicide are afforded Lastly, population risk indicators were estab-
increased confidentiality when seen by mental health providers (Limited Privilege Suicide lished from historical patterns, to detect early
Prevention Program). Additionally, Limited Patient-Psychotherapist Privilege was estab- triggers of changes in the pattern of suicide rates.
lished in 1999, limiting the release of patient information to legal authorities during In 2002 we began discussing how the
Uniform Code of Military Justice proceedings. AFSPP was implemented across the many
10. IDS Consultation Assessment Tool (originally the Behavioral Health Survey): The IDS installations of the air force, and we sought to
Consultation Assessment Tool allows commanders to assess unit strengths and identify view it within a developing theoretical pre-
areas of vulnerability. Commanders can use this tool in collaboration with IDS consultants vention framework.4 In 2004 we began using
to design interventions to support the health and welfare of their personnel. an implementation appraisal survey to measure
11. Suicide Event Surveillance System: Information on all air force active duty suicides and implementation of AFSPP program activities as-
suicide attempts are entered into a central database that tracks suicide events and sociated with each of the 11 Initiatives (see the
facilitates the analysis of potential risk factors for suicide in air force personnel. box on this page). In 2006 we further refined the
survey into checklist form. The11 Initiatives were
purposely established to provide an overlapping
forecasts for future quarters. This type of time- Quarterly suicide rates were calculated per organizational framework, but not necessarily
series model has independent variables marking 100 000 for the active duty air force popula- a theoretical framework. Therefore, we clustered
intervention periods and autoregressive errors tion from 1981 through 2007, and forecasted items on the implementation appraisal instru-
that model the stochastic dependency of obser- rates were calculated for each quarter of 2008. ments into 7 prevention domains: (1) leadership
vations over time. All analyses were conducted Each quarterly suicide rate was modeled as involvement, (2) continuous professional military
using SAS software3 applied to data from air a regression with separate pre- and postinter- training, (3) development of guidelines for com-
force administrative databases. vention means and with first-order manders, (4) ongoing community education, (5)

2458 | Research and Practice | Peer Reviewed | Knox et al. American Journal of Public Health | December 2010, Vol 100, No. 12
RESEARCH AND PRACTICE

development of integrated delivery system and (P < .01). The estimated correlation coefficient results suggest an overall higher level of AFSPP
community action information boards, (6) en- between consecutive quarterly observations is implementation in 2006 than in 2004. Median
hancement of community mental health services, 0.431 (P < .001), and the estimated variance implementations for the 7 prevention do-
and (7) instituting policies. of the disturbance term is 0.513. During the mains in 2004 were all below 90%, and the
The items in the domains are best described postintervention period, in the third quarter of lowest was 56% (Figure 2). In comparison,
as ‘‘operational measurements,’’ after the work 2004, there was a significant upward spike in during 2006 the overall implementation
of Hand5; this kind of measure is also called an suicide rates (P < .001); subsequently, suicide values for 2 of the 7 prevention domains (con-
‘‘indicator measure’’ by Fayers and Hand.6 As rates fell and have remained within the tinuous professional military training and en-
Fayers and Hand6 state, in contrast to psycho- expected range of the low rates seen soon after hancement of community mental health
metric measures, the goal of using indicator initial implementation of the program. services) were 100% for 95% of all bases. For
measures is to construct an index that consists of We observed an inverse relationship be- prevention activities in the 5 other prevention
the combined values of the measured variables. tween population size and suicide rates in the domains in 2006, at least half of the bases
We then used these indexes to calculate an preintervention period: a smaller population were found to have high levels of implemen-
implementation score for each of the 7 pre- size tended to be associated with a higher tation (Figure 3).
vention domains. (To preserve the most infor- suicide rate than that observed for a larger
mation for analyses of implementation levels, population size. All population sizes above DISCUSSION
data were analyzed at the installation level.) This 500 000 occurred during the period from 1981
permitted us to measure operationally whether through 1990, with the population declining In recent years there has been a marked
an air force installation carried out the activities during the remainder of the preintervention increase in research on translating the findings
described in the box on the previous page, which period. The regression model for the pre- and of efficacy and effectiveness studies into actual
are the direct result of complying with the 11 postintervention periods included an indicator health practices.7,8 The AFSPP provides an
Initiatives. Each question was assigned a score of of implementation of the AFSPP in 1997, in opportunity to study the implementation of
1if a respondent answered ‘‘yes’’ and 0 otherwise. addition to population size. It showed a linear public health practices intended to reduce deaths
The data were weighted according to the nonsignificant relationship between the rate from suicide. This opportunity is unique in 3
number of implementation indicators from the and the population size, with a negative slope of ways. First, the AFSPP was developed well
11 Initiatives that were grouped within each of –1.38 (P > .05). Because the population size before implementation science was acknowl-
the 7 prevention domains. Levels of imple- and the intervention period are confounded, edged as a field of study. Second, the current
mentation were then determined across all the regression intervention effect (–4.9; operational structure of the AFSPP evolved over
installations, and the scores were represented P < .05) is larger than in the bivariate analysis time, even though its principal initiatives were
as the percentage of the maximum possible (–2.9; P < .05) unadjusted for population size. described at the outset; thus, attention to sus-
score for each of the 7 domains. Air force A similar trend was found when the relation- tained implementation of its core components
leaders and installation commanders com- ship between the change in population size emerged iteratively. Third, this public health
pleted the 11 Initiatives survey in 2004 and the and suicide rate was investigated. prevention program was not originally devel-
11 Initiatives checklist in 2006, using adminis- To give air force leadership tools for early oped on a theoretical basis, which is now rec-
trative records of activities monitored at each detection of future increases in suicide rates, we ommended as the best way to strengthen the
installation. Data were reported anonymously developed risk indicators on the basis of the credibility of measured outcomes.7 In spite of this
to minimize the potential for reporting bias forecasted suicide rate for 2008 (9.3 per latter shortcoming, the subsequent identifica-
and were compiled both at the base level and at 100 000). Rates less than or equal to 1 standard tion of theoretical prevention domains for the
the level of the 9 major commands, which are deviation from the forecast rate (<12.1 per AFSPP proved to be relatively straightforward.
the operational units of the service. 100 000) were identified as indicators of con- The effects of the AFSPP are inevitably
cern. Rates greater than 1 standard deviation confounded with the activation of the air force
RESULTS from the forecast rate (12.1–14.8 per 100 000) for warfare, beginning immediately after the
were defined as indicators of warning, and attacks of September 11, 2001, and accelerating
Figure 1 depicts the observed quarterly rates greater than 2 standard deviations from into the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. The
suicide rate from 1991 through 2008. The the forecast rate (>14.8 per 100 000) were possibility that these conflicts had an effect on
horizontal lines represent the mean pre- and identified as critical indicators of a change in suicide rates, regardless of any changes in
postintervention quarterly suicide rates, and the pattern of suicide rates. program content or implementation, cannot be
the deviations from this mean are depicted as Installations reported variation in the extent ruled out. Military morale is expected to be
outliers across the decades. The estimated to which they implemented the AFSPP’s suicide higher at the start of a conflict, particularly after
mean suicide rate per quarter during the in- prevention activities as specified by the 11 a domestic attack, but as these 2 conflicts
tervention period was 2.387 per 100 000, Initiatives. Figures 2 and 3 show the levels of continued, morale may have suffered from
compared with 3.033 per 100 000 for the implementation across the 7 prevention do- a variety of factors, including stop-loss mea-
preintervention mean, for a change of 0.646 mains in 2004 and 2006, respectively. These sures that barred service personnel from

December 2010, Vol 100, No. 12 | American Journal of Public Health Knox et al. | Peer Reviewed | Research and Practice | 2459
RESEARCH AND PRACTICE

Note. The US Air Force Suicide Prevention Program was implemented in 1997.
FIGURE 1—Quarterly suicide rates: US Air Force, 1981–2008.

leaving the military at the end of their enlist- the program’s presumed effectiveness. Our program. In 2006, levels of implementation
ments early in the war, the absence of any new data did not allow us to estimate exactly when were again measured. When suicide levels in
attacks in the United States, and the cumulative implementation efforts diminished; rather, they 2004 and 2006 were compared with levels
effects of repeated deployments on military only gave us a snapshot at the end of 2004, of implementation in 2004 and 2006, it
personnel and family members in areas such as a time when implementation likely had been appeared that diminished implementation of the
relationships and finances. It is beyond the diminishing for several years in the face of AFSPP may have played a role in the reversal of
scope of this study to elucidate any contribu- heavy demands from both the Afghanistan and the program’s apparent effectiveness.
tions from these factors. Iraq wars. Regardless, air force leadership felt it The air force now measures compliance with
The upward spike in suicide rates observed was imperative to address the possibility that established AFSPP procedures on an annual
during 2004 (Figure 1) raised important diminished implementation of the program basis. Organizational capacity for monitoring
questions about whether the 2 ongoing wars, played a role in the increase in suicide rates and compliance with the program is now coupled
a decreasing force size, or diminished imple- initiated actions to ensure community-wide with development of population risk indi-
mentation of the AFSPP had taken its toll upon compliance with all of the components of the cators that are used to monitor suicide rates

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Note. Horizontal lines represent the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 95th percentiles. Dots represent points beyond the 95th percentile.
FIGURE 2—Levels of US Air Force Suicide Prevention Program (AFSPP) implementation, distributed across installations, in 2004.

for identification of early shifts in patterns of point.6 This is a limitation of the current study relationship between population size and sui-
suicide rates. There are limitations to this when viewed from the perspective of prevention cide rate when left uncorrected for the in-
approach, but it reflects the importance of close science or therapeutic trials. This limitation is tervention effect, rendering this inference
tracking of programmatic activities for reducing addressed to some degree through the develop- somewhat tentative. We also recognize that
deaths from suicide and the critical need to ment of theoretical prevention domains that a reduction in the number of service members
move beyond descriptive, epidemiologic stud- remained constant over time under which the with mental health problems could limit any
ies of suicide risk. measures were grouped and compared. To date, conclusion regarding a sustainable program-
The AFSPP has been continuously and in- however, there has been no external validation matic impact over time. However, air force–
crementally improved since its launch, includ- of these domains and measures. These data are specific data from the Department of Defense
ing the adoption of formalized prevention being used as early-generation studies of imple- Survey of Health Related Behaviors found that,
domains in 2004. The measures of imple- mentation of a multicomponent suicide preven- in 1998, 9.5% of air force personnel received
mentation that were introduced in 2004 and tion program to inform the next generation of mental health care; in 2002, 13.5% received
refined for 2006 represent ongoing continuous implementation studies, which should include mental health care; and in 2005, 13.3% re-
quality improvement efforts. Given this drive such external validation measures. ceived mental health care, suggesting that the
to enhance effectiveness as rapidly as possible, If the relationship between suicide rates and air force is not decreasing its population of
the 2004 and 2006 measures evaluated the population size in the air force were linear, as it personnel with mental health problems.9–11 It
same key implementation prevention domains appears to be when corrected for the inter- also is worth noting in this regard that the air
but were obtained somewhat differently. Al- vention effect of the AFSPP, a higher suicide force encourages early help-seeking behavior for
though studies have demonstrated that this rate would have been expected during the a mental health problem, and 97% of air force
approach is appropriate when effecting changes postintervention years (1997–2008), when the personnel who seek mental health care do not
in large organizations, it results in incrementally air force population was declining. However, experience any negative consequences to their
different measures being taken at each time we are mindful of the nonsignificant inverse military careers as a result.12

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Note. Horizontal lines represent the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 95th percentiles. Dots represent points beyond the 95th percentile.
FIGURE 3—Levels of the US Air Force Suicide Prevention Program (AFSPP) implementation, distributed across installations, in 2006.

Knowledge about risk factors for suicide feasible and effective. The AFSPP is the first long- seek help because of stigma may become
includes evidence that aggression, impulsivity, term sustained effort of its kind to serve as an particularly significant in light of a recent
risk-taking, acute and chronic stresses (often example of what communities can accomplish in report based on a prospective study of a US
including interpersonal or occupational related reducing morbidity and mortality attributable to military cohort of 77 047 military active duty,
stress13–18), and alcohol or substance use19,20 are suicidal behaviors if there is ongoing commit- reserve, and National Guard personnel by
powerfully associated with suicidal behaviors, ment to do so. Smith et al.21 These investigators found that
which are moderated in their expression by Because of the wars in Afghanistan and deployed individuals who experienced combat
gender and age. Despite these compelling data, Iraq, we can expect a large population of exposure had a 3-fold increase in new onset of
there has been no reduction in overall suicide combat veterans to experience mental health self-reported posttraumatic stress disorder. In
rates in the US civilian population since the disorders, and many of these individuals may a study by Boscarino,22 veterans with posttrau-
1940s, when national rates fell after the Great not seek care. Stigma attached to mental matic stress disorder continued to be at height-
Depression and during the nation’s involvement health issues is a pervasive cultural phenom- ened risk for suicide 30 years after separation
in World War II. Thus, many policymakers and enon in the general US population, and it is from the service.
clinicians remain uncertain whether systematic even more pronounced in the military. The These findings highlight the importance of
approaches to reducing deaths from suicide are potential reluctance of military personnel to the role of specific combat exposures. It will be

2462 | Research and Practice | Peer Reviewed | Knox et al. American Journal of Public Health | December 2010, Vol 100, No. 12
RESEARCH AND PRACTICE

critical for clinicians who encounter returning W. Talcott is with the 59th Mental Health Squadron, 8. Wang S, Moss JR, Hiller JE. Applicability and trans-
Lackland Air Force Base, San Antonio, TX. Rick L. ferability of interventions in evidence-based public
military personnel to be trained to recognize
Campise is with the 1st Medical Operations Squadron, health. Health Promot Int. 2005;21(1):76–83.
the early risk factors and warning signs of Langley Air Force Base, Hampton, VA. Alina Bajorska is 9. Bray RM, Sanchez RP, Ornstein ML, et al. Department
suicidal behaviors, and specifically those asso- with the Department of Community and Preventive Medi- of Defense Survey of Health Related Behaviors Among
cine, University of Rochester Medical Center, Rochester. Xin
ciated with combat exposures. Although an Active Duty Military Personnel: 1998. Washington, DC:
Tu is with the Department of Biostatistics and Computa- US Dept of Defense; 1999.
earlier study23 carried out among combat- tional Biology, University of Rochester Medical Center,
Rochester. Eric D. Caine is with the Department of 10. Bray RM, Hourani LL, Rae KL, et al. Department
exposed Vietnam veterans found a significant
Psychiatry, University of Rochester Medical Center, of Defense Survey of Health Related Behaviors Among
dose–response effect related to being Active Duty Military Personnel: 2002. Washington, DC:
Rochester.
wounded, it is unlikely that many physicians Correspondence should be sent to Kerry L. Knox, VA US Dept of Defense; 2003.
and clinicians are aware of the importance of Center of Excellence at Canandaigua, Canandaigua VA 11. Bray RM, Hourani LL, Olmsted KL, et al. Department
Medical Center, 400 Fort Hill Ave, Canandaigua, NY of Defense Survey of Health Related Behaviors Among
assessing trauma exposure among those who
(e-mail: kerry.knox@va.gov). Reprints can be ordered at Active Duty Military Personnel: 2005. Washington, DC:
have served. The larger challenge for com- http://www.ajph.org by clicking the ‘‘Reprints/Eprints’’ link. US Dept of Defense; 2006.
munities worldwide is whether the pervasive This article was accepted October 28, 2009. 12. Campise RL, Rowan Anderson B. A multisite study
stigma associated with mental health disor- of Air Force outpatient behavioral health treatment-
Contributors seeking patterns and career impact. Mil Med. 2006;
ders and psychosocial problems will be over-
K. L. Knox conceptualized and directed the study. K. L. 171(11):1123–1127.
come as a result of acceptance that these
Knox, S. Pflanz, G. W. Talcott, R. L. Campise, and E. D. 13. Conner KR, Cox C, Duberstein PR, Tian L, Nisbet
significant, adverse mental health outcomes Caine established the formal prevention domains that PA, Conwell Y. Violence, alcohol, and completed suicide:
are a normal human response to the expo- guided the development of implementation measures. a case-control study. Am J Psychiatry. 2001;158(10):
K. L. Knox, J. E. Lavigne, and X. Tu supervised the data 1701–1705.
sures associated with serving in the military.
analysis. A. Bajorska carried out the data analysis. All 14. Beautrais AL, Joyce PR, Mulder RT. Precipitating
In conclusion, the US Air Force showed, authors participated in interpreting the results and factors and life events in serious suicide attempts among
through its efforts to reduce deaths from writing and editing the article. youths aged 13 through 24 years. J Am Acad Child
suicide, that (1) it is possible to reduce the rate Adolesc Psychiatry. 1997;36(11):1543–1551.
of suicide across a period of years using Acknowledgments 15. Duberstein PR, Conwell Y, Caine ED. Interpersonal
This project was supported by National Institute of stressors, substance abuse, and suicide. J Nerv Ment Dis.
a multifaceted, overlapping, community-
Mental Health (grants K01 MH055317, R01 1993;181(2):80–85.
based approach, and (2) reductions in suicide MH075017-01A1, and P20 MH071897). 16. Mahon MJ, Tobin JP, Cusack DA, et al. Suicide
rates cannot be simply maintained by virtue Note. The funding agency was not involved in the among regular-duty military personnel: a retrospective
design and conduct of the study; collection, management,
of a program’s inherent momentum. Pro- case-control study of occupation-specific risk factors
analysis, and interpretation of the data; and preparation, for workplace suicide. Am J Psychiatry. 2005;162(9):
grammatic efforts must be continuously sup- review, or approval of the article. 1688–1696.
ported and monitored to ensure sustained
17. Helmkamp JC. Occupation and suicide among males
effects. This may mean that many communi- Human Participant Protection in the US Armed Forces. Ann Epidemiol. 1996;6(1):
ties and organizations will not easily be able This study received approval from the institutional re- 83–88.
view board at the University of Rochester and the
to launch large-scale suicide prevention ef- 18. Marzuk PM, Nock MK, Leon AC, et al. Suicide among
Wilford Hall institutional review board for the US Air New York City police officers, 1977–1996. Am J Psy-
forts on a scale comparable to the AFSPP, Force. chiatry. 2002;159(12):2069–2071.
especially in developing countries.24 We sus-
19. Conner KR, Duberstein PR, Conwell Y. Age-related
pect that there may be real limitations on the References patterns of factors associated with completed suicide in
feasibility of an exact replication of the AFSPP to 1. Knox KL, Litts DA, Talcott GW, Feig JC, Caine ED. men with alcohol dependence. Am J Addict. 1999;
Risk of suicide and related adverse outcomes after expo- 8(4):312–318.
other settings. Nevertheless, the enduring public
sure to a suicide prevention program in the US Air Force: 20. Ilgen MA, Harris A, Moos RH, Tiet QQ. Predictors of
health message from 12 years of this program is cohort study. BMJ. 2003;327(7428):1376–1380. a suicide attempt one year after entry into substance use
that suicide rates can be reduced, and that 2. Box GEP, Jenkins GM, Reinsel GC. Time Series disorder treatment. Alcohol Clin Exp Res. 2007;31(4):
program success requires interventions to be Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Hoboken, NJ: John 635–642.
consistently supported, maintained, and moni- Wiley & Sons; 2008. 21. Smith TC, Wingard DL, Ryan MA, Kritz-Silverstein
D, Slymen DJ, Sallis JF; Millennium Cohort Study Team.
tored for compliance. This is a message that all 3. SAS Institute. SAS/STAT 9.1 User’s Guide. Cary,
NC: SAS Institute; 2004. Prior assault and posttraumatic stress disorder after
communities and organizations worldwide can combat deployment. Epidemiology. 2008;19(3):505–
embrace while considering how to appropriately 4. Knox KL, Conwell Y, Caine ED. If suicide is a public 512.
health problem, what are we doing to prevent it? Am J
structure programs and interventions at a local Public Health. 2004;94(1):37–45.
22. Boscarino JA. Postraumatic stress disorder and
mortality among US Army veterans 30 years after
level. j 5. Hand DJ. Statistics and the theory of measurement. military service. Ann Epidemiol. 2006;16(4):248–256.
J R Stat Soc Ser A Stat Soc. 1996;159(3):445–492.
23. Bullman TA, Kang HK. The risk of suicide among
6. Fayers PM, Hand DJ. Causal variables, indicator wounded Vietnam veterans. Am J Public Health. 1996;
About the Authors 86(5):662–667.
variables and measurement scales: an example from
Kerry L. Knox and Jill E. Lavigne are with the Canandaigua
quality of life. J R Stat Soc Ser A Stat Soc. 2002;165(2): 24. Hawton K, van Heeringen K. Suicide. Lancet. 2009;
VA Medical Center, US Department of Veterans Affairs,
233–261. 373(9672):1372–1381.
Canandaigua, NY, and the Department of Psychiatry,
University of Rochester Medical Center, Rochester, NY. 7. Rychetnik L, Frommer M, Hawe P, Shiell A. Criteria
Steven Pflanz is with the 579th Medical Operations for evaluating evidence on public health interventions.
Squadron, Bolling Air Force Base, Washington, DC. Gerald J Epidemiol Community Health. 2002;56(2):119–127.

December 2010, Vol 100, No. 12 | American Journal of Public Health Knox et al. | Peer Reviewed | Research and Practice | 2463

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