Exercise 1

Event
Alternative
Does not fit Fits acceptably Fits succesfully Fits well Fits very well
Technology 1 530 585 615 650 710
Technology 2 670 525 575 580 690
Technology 3 750 650 615 623 710
Technology 4 670 590 610 650 730
Technology 5 550 610 710 550 625

Criterio
Alternative Wald or Hurwicz Savage
Laplace Optimistic
pessimistic
0.6 750 650
Technology 1 618 530 710 109 220 65
Technology 2 608 525 690 100 80 125
Technology 3 669.6 615 750 82 0 0
Technology 4 650 590 730 85 80 60
Technology 5 609 550 710 97 200 40

Criterio Resultado Valor

Laplace Technology 3 669.6
Wald or pessimistic Technology 3 615
Optimistic Technology 3 750
Hurwicz Technology 1 109
Savage Technology 3 95

La optima solución según los 5 criterios analizados, será la tecnología 3, la cual ofrece las mejores
 Savage

710 650 730 Max

95 0 20 220
135 70 40 135
95 27 20 95
100 0 0 100
0 100 105 200

al ofrece las mejores utilidades

Exercise 1

Decision Tables
Enter
Enter the
the profits
profits in
in the
the main
main body
body of
of the
the data
data table.
table. Enter
Enter probabilities
probabilities in
in the
the first
first row
row ifif you
you want
want to
to
compute
compute thethe expected
expected value.
value.

Data Results
Profit Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 EMV
Probability Probabilities do not sum to 1
Decision 1 530 585 615 650 710 0
Decision 2 670 525 575 580 690 0
Decision 3 750 650 615 623 710 0
Decision 4 670 590 610 650 730 0
Decision 5 550 610 710 550 625 0
Maximum 0

Expected Value of Perfect Information

Column best 750 650 710 650 730 0
0
0

Regret
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Expected
Probability 0 0 0 0 0
Decision 1 220 65 95 0 20 0
Decision 2 80 125 135 70 40 0
Decision 3 0 0 95 27 20 0
Decision 4 80 60 100 0 0 0
Decision 5 200 40 0 100 105 0
Minimum 0
 Hurwicz alpha
Minimum Maximum 0.6
obabilities do not sum to 1
530 710 638
525 690 624
615 750 696
590 730 674
550 710 646
615 750

<-Expected value WITH perfect information

<-Best expected value
<-Expected value OF perfect information

Maximum

220
135
95
100
200
95
 Exercise 2
Event
Alternative
Does not fit Fits acceptably Fits succesfully Fits well Fits very well
Technology 1 415 435 510 575 610
Technology 2 318 535 575 603 621
Technology 3 650 575 556 456 611
Technology 4 540 718 560 459 532
Technology 5 497 535 435 410 560

Criterio
Alternative Hurwicz
Laplace Wald or pessimistic Optimistic
0.8 318
Technology 1 509 610 415 210 97
Technology 2 530.4 621 318 130.2 0
Technology 3 569.6 650 456 234.8 332
Technology 4 561.8 718 459 223.6 222
Technology 5 487.4 560 410 216 179

Criterio Resultado Valor

Laplace Technology 5 487.4
Wald or pessimistic Technology 5 560
Optimistic Technology 2 318
Hurwicz Technology 2 130.2
Savage Technology 1 165

La optima solución según los 5 criterios analizados, será la tecnología 3 o 2, ya que hay una iguald
criterios sobre cual de ellas ofrece las mejores utilidades
se 2

o
Savage
435 435 410 532 Min
0 75 165 78 165
100 140 193 89 193
140 121 46 79 332
283 125 49 0 283
100 0 0 28 179

a que hay una igualdad de decisiones según los

Exercise 2

Decision Tables
Enter
Enter the
the costs
costs in
in the
the main
main body
body of
of the
the data
data table.
table. Enter
Enter probabilities
probabilities in
in the
the first
first row
row ifif you
you want
want to
to
compute
compute thethe expected
expected value.
value.

Data Results
Cost Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 EMV
Probability Probabilities do not sum to 1
Decision 1 415 435 510 575 610 0
Decision 2 318 535 575 603 621 0
Decision 3 650 575 556 456 611 0
Decision 4 540 718 560 459 532 0
Decision 5 497 535 435 410 560 0
Minimum 0

Expected Value of Perfect Information

Column best 318 435 435 410 532 0
0
0

Regret
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Expected
Probability 0 0 0 0 0
Decision 1 97 0 75 165 78 0
Decision 2 0 100 140 193 89 0
Decision 3 332 140 121 46 79 0
Decision 4 222 283 125 49 0 0
Decision 5 179 100 0 0 28 0
Minimum 0
 Hurwicz alpha
Minimum Maximum 0.8
obabilities do not sum to 1
415 610 571
318 621 560.4
456 650 611.2
459 718 666.2
410 560 530
318 560

<-Expected value WITH perfect information

<-Best expected value
<-Expected value OF perfect information

Maximum

165
193
332
283
179
165
 Exercise 3
Event
Alternative
Does not fit Fits acceptably Fits succesfully Fits well Fits very well
Technology 1 519 585 615 650 710
Technology 2 457 525 560 580 687
Technology 3 560 650 605 623 710
Technology 4 670 574 600 650 730
Technology 5 542 610 710 550 625

Criterio
Alternative Hurwicz
Laplace Wald or pessimistic Optimistic
0.7 457
Technology 1 615.8 710 519 150.3 62
Technology 2 561.8 687 457 113.8 0
Technology 3 629.6 710 560 179 103
Technology 4 644.8 730 574 182.8 213
Technology 5 607.4 710 542 166.4 85

Criterio Resultado Valor

Laplace Technology 2 561.8
Wald or pessimistic Technology 2 687
Optimistic Technology 2 457
Hurwicz Technology 2 113.8
Savage Technology 2 62

La optima solución según los 5 criterios analizados, será la tecnología 2, la cual ofrece las mejores
criterios analizados
se 3

o
Savage
525 560 550 625 Min
60 55 100 85 100
0 0 30 62 62
125 45 73 85 125
49 40 100 105 213
85 150 0 0 150

al ofrece las mejores utilidades para todos los

Exercise 3

Decision Tables
Enter
Enter the
the costs
costs in
in the
the main
main body
body of
of the
the data
data table.
table. Enter
Enter probabilities
probabilities in
in the
the first
first row
row ifif you
you want
want to
to
compute
compute thethe expected
expected value.
value.

Data Results
Cost Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 EMV
Probability Probabilities do not sum to 1
Decision 1 519 585 615 650 710 0
Decision 2 457 525 560 580 687 0
Decision 3 560 650 605 623 710 0
Decision 4 670 574 600 650 730 0
Decision 5 542 610 710 550 625 0
Minimum 0

Expected Value of Perfect Information

Column best 457 525 560 550 625 0
0
0

Regret
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Expected
Probability 0 0 0 0 0
Decision 1 62 60 55 100 85 0
Decision 2 0 0 0 30 62 0
Decision 3 103 125 45 73 85 0
Decision 4 213 49 40 100 105 0
Decision 5 85 85 150 0 0 0
Minimum 0
 Hurwicz alpha
Minimum Maximum 0.7
obabilities do not sum to 1
519 710 652.7
457 687 618
560 710 665
574 730 683.2
542 710 659.6
457 687

<-Expected value WITH perfect information

<-Best expected value
<-Expected value OF perfect information

Maximum

100
62
125
213
150
62
 Exercise 4
Player 2
Strategy
A B C
Player I 24 17 13
1 II 29 7 33

Variables Ecuaciones VALOR ESPERADO

I = x1 (1) x1+x2=1 Reemplazamos (1)
II = x2 (2) y1+y2+y3=1 (3) 24x1 + 29(1-x1) = 29 - 5x1
A = y1 De (1) x2=1-x1 (4) 17x1 + 7(1-x1) = 7 + 10x1
B = y2 (5) 13x1 + 33(1-x1) = 33 - 20x1
C = y3

Método gráfico

35

30

25 (3)

20
(4)
15 Valor del juego
(5) 13
10

0 1
Evaluamos (3), (4) y (5) en
x1 = 0, 1
0 (3) 29
0 (4) 7
0 (5) 33
1 (3) 24
1 (4) 17
1 (5) 13
 E4 QM

Exercise 4

Zero sum games

Game value 15.66667

Data
Col strat 1 Col strat 2 Col strat 3 row mix wtd avg Row min
Row strat 1 24 17 13 0.8667 15.66667 13
Row strat 2 29 7 33 0.1333 15.66667 7
col mix 0 0.6667 0.3333 1
wtd avg 24.66667 15.66667 15.66667 1 maximin 13

Col max 29 17 33 0.866667

minimax 17

Page 15
 Exercise 5
Player 2
Strategy
A B
I 24 17
Player
II 29 7
1
III 19 11

Variables Ecuaciones VALOR ESPERADO

I = x1 (1) x1+x2+x3=1 Reemplazamos (2)
II = x2 (2) y1+y2=1 (3) 24y1 + 17(1-y1) = 17 + 7y1
III = x3 De (2) y2=1-y1 (4) 29y1 + 7(1-y1) = 7 + 22y1
A = y1 (5) 19y1 + 11(1-y1) = 11 + 8y1
B = y2

Método gráfico

35

30 (4)

25 (3)

20 (5) Valor del juego

17
15

10

0 1
Evaluamos (3), (4) y (5) en
y1 = 0, 1
0 (3) 17
0 (4) 7
0 (5) 11
1 (3) 24
1 (4) 29
1 (5) 19
 E5 QM

Exercise 5

Zero sum games

Game value 17
Data
Col strat 1 Col strat 2 row mix wtd avg Row min
Row strat 1 24 17 1 17 17
Row strat 2 29 7 0 7 7
Row strat 3 19 11 0 11 11
col mix 0 1 1
wtd avg 24 17 1 maximin 17

Col max 29 17 1
minimax 17

Page 18
 Exercise 6
Min Z Probabilidad 1 Probabilidad 2 Probabilidad 3
57.023 0.000 0.000 0.705

Max Z 57.023 PLAYER 1

Probabilidad 1 0.000 66 73 47
Probabilidad 2 0.000 35 65 51
PLAYER 2
Probabilidad 3 0.614 76 64 52
Probabilidad 4 0.386 48 77 65
Suma 1.000
Valor esperado 65.18 69.02 57.02
Max 76 77 65

Minimax 65
6
Probabilidad 4 Suma
0.295 1.000

Valor esperado Min Maximin

58 50.25 47 52
27 43.91 27
69 57.02 52
38 57.02 38

57.02
69
 E6 QM

Exercise 6

Zero sum games

Enter
Enter the
the values
values in
in the
the shaded
shaded area
area then
then use
use the
the Run
Run Excel
Exce
button.
button.Alternatively,
Alternatively, oror to
to view
view the
the sensitivity
sensitivity results,
results, open
open SS
to
to the
the Data
Data Tab
Tab (Excel
(Excel 2007,
2007, 2010,
2010, 2013,
2013, 2016)
2016) oror the
the Tools
Tools
2003,
2003, 2011).
2011).
Game value 57.02273
Data
Col strat 1 Col strat 2 Col strat 3 Col strat 4 row mix wtd avg Row min
Row strat 1 66 73 47 58 0 50.25 47
Row strat 2 35 65 51 27 0 43.90909 27
Row strat 3 76 64 52 69 0.6136 57.02273 52
Row strat 4 48 77 65 38 0.3864 57.02273 38
col mix 0 0 0.7045 0.2955 1
wtd avg 65.18182 69.02273 57.02273 57.02273 1 maximin 52

Col max 76 77 65 69 0.613636

minimax 65

Page 21
 E6 QM

ed area
ded area then
then use
use the
the Run
Run Excel's
Excel's Solver
Solver
ew
ew the
the sensitivity
sensitivity results,
results, open
open Solver
Solver by
by going
going
, 2010,
7, 2010, 2013,
2013, 2016)
2016) oror the
theTools
Tools menu
menu (Excel
(Excel

Page 22