Guesstimate 7

Estimate the monthly mobile data usage (GB) in 2020

Interviewee Notes Approach/ Framework Monthly Data Usage (in GB) by different age groups & income levels
• Divide current population
into Urban and Rural.
Calculate data for only
Current Population Income Low Medium High
Urban population, and (1 billion)
extrapolate for Rural Age 60% 30% 10%
population using a similar
logic 0-15 25% 0 0 0.5
• In Urban areas, data usage is
dependent on factors like
Urban (30%) Rural (70%) 15-30 35% 0.1 5 6
age group (older generation
may not be tech savvy) and 30-50 25% 0.1 2 4
income (lower income
groups might not have
access to smartphones) >50 15% 0 0 2
• Estimate usage for 2017,
and assuming an annual Age Group Weighted Average (WA) 0.036 0.675 0.353
growth, predict usage for
2020
Data Usage Data Usage
Total Annual
Population (GB) / month (GB) / month
(Sum of WA) Growth
(2017) (2020)
Income
1.064 300 m 320 m 10% 425 m

Recommendations
• Should first create structure, then put numbers to it
• Make reasonable assumptions, clarify with interviewers at each stage
• Be prepared to justify your assumptions at each stage

Interview Summary
The candidate clarified the scope of the case; and made relevant assumptions wherever necessary. The candidate could have taken whole numbers to simplify the calculations.

Observations/Tips/Suggestions
Should be careful with numbers; silly calculation mistakes could be harmful. Case could have more layers.

(C) Consult Club, IIM Ahmedabad 2018-19 105