Climate Modeling in River Basins:

Challenges and Perspectives

Charles Rodgers, Senior Advisor, Climate Change Adaptation
Asian Development Bank (ADB)
International Workshop: Adaptation to Climate Change in River Basins of Asia:
Challenges and Perspectives
Bogor Indonesia 29 April 2015
 Impact Assessment

1. Future Society
2. Emissions Pathways
3. GCM selection
4. Downscaling
(regional scenarios)
5. Impact modeling
(hydrology)
6. Impacts
7. Adaptation responses

Image courtesy U.K. Met Office

 Evolution of Practice
Basic model (V1.0): GCM > RCM >
Hydrologic simulation > Water
resources assessment
V2.0: GCM selection criteria;
multiple GCMs (e.g., “wet”,
“dry”), model coupling
V3.0: use of ensembles;
quantification of uncertainty;
risk management approaches
V4.0: Robust Assessment &
Decision Support
 GLOWA Volta Integrated Model Concept
Climate, Land Use, Hydrology Economics, Institutions, Stakeholders

Ministers

WRC

Use Case Identification,

Land Conversion Field Investigations
(LUDAS)
Remote Water

Development
Sensing Board

WATSAN
Instrumentation DA
Hydrology Integrated Basin Model
WaSim ETH
VRA

Donors

Mesoscale Climate (MM5) Institutional Analysis

Component-Based Integration of Data and Services
(COBIDS)
COBIDS Client Platform

integrated
user interfaces

Layers

Digital Elevation Model

Land Conversion Hydrology Integrated Basin Model Mesoscale Climate

(LUDAS) (WaSIM) (GAMS) (MM5)
 Use of Ensembles to Quantify Uncertainty
Find, examine the extreme cases (112 projections, statistically downscaled CMIP3)

Hot, dry Hot, wet

Warm, wet

Warm, dry

Source: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (2008), Sensitivity of Future Central Valley Project and State Water
Project Operations to Potential Climate Change and Associated Sea Level Rise

Insight into strategies that
might be more robust
Tradeoff Analysis
4. Display and Evaluate
tradeoffs among
strategies
Information on
vulnerabilities
Robust Strategies
deliberation
analysis Robust Decision-Making ( RDM) using XLRM
both Source: R. Lempert et el (2013) Ensuring Robust Flood Risk Management in Ho Chi Minh City.
Participatory Scoping
1. Define Uncertainties,
Strategies, Relationships
Plan for conducting of
and Objectives (XLRM) simulation modeling
Information to help choose
candidate strategies
Case Generation
Information on 2. Estimate performance
vulnerabilities
of strategies in many
futures
Scenario Exploration
and Discovers Database of simulation
model results
3. Characterize
Vulnerabilities of
strategies
Scenarios that illuminate vulnerability
 Factors Determining Situations where RDM is
Useful
Robust
Yes Decision
Making
Complex?
Yes

Deep Uncertainty? No Scenario

Planning
No
Predict-then-act

Source: R. Lempert et el (2013) Ensuring Robust Flood Risk

Management in Ho Chi Minh City.
 “Robust decision frameworks
imply at least two distinct roles
for climate modeling:
• to help structure the problem
by exploring the limits of
possible system behaviors
• to help explore the
performance of decision
options over as wide a range of
futures as possible.” (C. P. Weaver et
al. (2013), WIREs Clim Change 2013, 4:39–60.)

Photo Mikko Punkari

 RDM: Adapting to a Changing Colorado River

2012 Bureau of Reclamation study, in

collaboration with seven states and
other users:
• Assessed future water supply and
demand imbalances over the next
50 years
• Developed and evaluated
opportunities for resolving
imbalances
Source: R. Lempert (2014) Information
Needs for Developing Robust Adaptive
Strategies
 XLRM Framework BuRec Colorado River Study
Uncertainties (X) Decisions, Options, or Levers (L)

Demand for Colorado River water (6) Options for demand reduction and supply
Future streamflow or water supply augmentation (40)
• Observed Resampled (103 traces)
• Paleo Resampled (1,244 traces) Portfolios of many options designed to
adjust over time in response to new
• Paleo Conditioned (500 traces)
information (4)
• Downscaled GCM Projected (112 traces) • Near-term actions
Reservoir operations post-2026 (2) • Signposts
• Contingent actions

Relationships or Models (R) Performance Metrics (M)

• Colorado River Simulation System • Water delivery (5)

• Electric power (3), Recreation (11),
Ecological (5), Water quality (1), and
Flood control (1)

Source: R. Lempert (2014) Information Needs for Developing Robust Adaptive Strategies
Source: NAS 2013
Reality Check:
“…we estimate that at least 5-30 years of
CMIP work is required to improve regional
temperature simulations and at least 30–
50 years for precipitation simulations, for
these to be directly input into (agricultural)
impact models.”
J. Ramirez-Villegas et al, Env. Res. Let. 2013

Photo Wenzel Prokosch UNEP/GRIDA

New Model Inter-comparison Projects:
• CORDEX/SEACLID: dynamically down-scaled
44 km
• ISI-MIP/Water-MIP: global hydrological models
 Annual

0
Crops

Farm
Planning

10
Plant
Breeding

20
Irrigation
Rehabilitation
New
Irrigation

30
Transport
Infrastructure

40
Major Urban
Infrastructure

50 60
Time Horizon (Years from Present)
Large Dam

80 70

Bridge Design
Lifetime
90
Temperature Change oC (Land) June-August

100
Three (four) questions of climate information:
1. Is the message plausible: Does it fall within the envelope
of known possible variability?
2. Is the message defensible: On a regional scale, am I able
to explain the understanding in terms of physical processes
and dynamics?
3. Is the message actionable: at the time and space scales
of user decision making – can I support the subjective risk-
management decision?
(4. Where does accountability lie?)

(Courtesy Bruce Hewitson, TGICA, CSAG)

 crodgers.consultant@adb.org
More information and literature available at:
http://www.adb.org
 Climate Risk Management: Actors and Incentives
Actors: Primary Other Attitude Attitude
Incentive Incentives Toward Toward
Risk Innovation

Project Professional Intellectual ++ ++

Scientists Achievement Challenge;
(Publications!) Altruism
Software Professional Technical + ++
Engineers Achievement Challenge;
Altruism
Strategic Political Service Ethic; - 0/+
Planners Acceptance Altruism

Water Managers Meet targets, Service Ethic; - 0/+

avert crises Altruism

“Stakeholders” Physical, Reduce -- 0/+

economic uncertainty,
well-being vulnerability