AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT FUND

ADB/BD/WP/2018/181/Final ADF/BD/WP/2018/132/Final
1 October 2018
Prepared by: ECCE/RDGW
Original: French

Probable Date of Boards Presentation

FOR INFORMATION
Not Applicable

MEMORANDUM

TO : THE BOARDS OF DIRECTORS

FROM : Vincent O. NMEHIELLE

Secretary General

SUBJECT : GUINEA: COUNTRY STRATEGY PAPER 2018-2022*

FINAL VERSION

Please find attached for information the Final Version related to the above-mentioned
document which was approved by the Boards of Directors on 27 September 2018.

Attach.

Cc: The President

* Questions on this document should be referred to:

Mrs. M. L. AKIN-OLUGBADE Director General RDGW Extension 4018

Mr. S. N’GUESSAN Deputy Director General RDGW Extension 4042
Mr. F. BAKOUP Officer-In-Charge ECCE Extension 4449
Mr. J. WAHOME Lead Regional Economist ECVP/RDGW Extension 3117
Mr. L. BASSOLE Country Manager COGN Extension 1729
Mr. C. NTAGUNGIRA Team Leader ECCE/COGN Extension 1554
SCCD:BWJ
 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK GROUP

GUINEA

COUNTRY STRATEGY PAPER 2018-2022

27 August 2018

Coordination NTAGUNGIRA Carpophore, Principal Country Economist (ECCE/COGN)

DIALLO A. Bassirou, Chief Power Engineer, RDGW1

GBELI Léandre, Chief Agricultural Economist, AHFR2
HASSANE Moctar, Chief Regional Procurement Coordinator, SNFI1
NIYUBAHWE Alain, Private Sector strategy Expert, PINS1
SANOGO Ibrahim, Chief Health Analyst, RDGW2
BELLA-CORBIN Aimée, Environment and Social Coordinator, RDGW4
FALL Abou, Trade Facilitation Officer, PITD2
FELLAH Hatem, Principal Agronomist, COSN
KEMAYOU Emile Chancelier, Principal Political Economist, RDGW0
NYIRINKWAYA Emmanuel, Operations Procurement Specialist, RDGW0
TANDINA Abdoulaye, Infrastructure Expert, COML
Review Team DJAIGBE Pierre, Principal Energy Officer, RDGW1/COSN
EKPO Alain Fabrice, Principal Macroeconomist, ECGF0
SOUMARE Arona, Principal Climate Change and Green Growth Officer, PECG.2
DIOP Maimounatou Ndiaye, Senior Transport Engineer, COTG
RUKUNDO Egidia, Senior Gender Expert
DE TOMASO Guilio, Fragility Expert (Consultant)
BAGAGA Mamoudou, Economist (Consultant), COGN
DIALLO Ibrahima Sory, Economist (Consultant), COGN
CAMARA Benjamin, Statistician Economist (Consultant), COGN
DABIRE Jean Marie Vianney, Principal Country Economist, COCD
EGUIDA Kossi Robert, Principal Country Programme Officer, COSN
Peer Reviewers
LAKOUE DERANT Régis, Senior Country Programme Officer, RDGC4
DAYO Tankien, Principal Country Economist, COMG
AKIN-OLUGBADE Marie-Laure, Director-General, RDGW
N’GUESSAN Serge, Deputy Director-General, RDGW
Management BASSOLE Léandre, Country Officer, COGN
BAKOUP Ferdinand, Officer-in-Charge, ECCE
WAHOME James Gituro, Lead Regional Economist, ECCE

ECCE/RDGW DEPARTMENTS
AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK GROUP

GUINEA

COUNTRY STRATEGY PAPER 2018-2022

ECCE/RDGW

September 2018

Translated Document
 TABLE OF CONTENTS
Acronyms and Abbreviations ...........................................................................................................ii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................................. vi
1. INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................................... 1
2. COUNTRY CONEXT ............................................................................................................... 1
2.1. Political Trends ........................................................................................................................... 1
2.2. Economic Trends ........................................................................................................................ 2
2.3. Social Context ............................................................................................................................. 4
3. STRATEGIC OPTIONS........................................................................................................... 6
3.1. Guinea’s Strategic Framework .................................................................................................... 6
3.2. Aid Coordination, Alignment and Harmonization ........................................................................ 6
3.3. Strengths and Opportunities/Weaknesses and Challenges ............................................................ 7
3.4. Review of the Bank’s Portfolio Performance in Guinea ............................................................... 8
3.5. Main Conclusions of the CSP 2012-2016/17 Completion Report ................................................. 9
3.6. Lessons Learned........................................................................................................................ 10
4. BANK GROUP STRATEGY IN GUINEA FOR 2018-2022.................................................. 10
4.1. Rationale and Strategic Selectivity ............................................................................................ 10
4.2. CSP Objective and Strategic Pillars ........................................................................................... 12
4.3. Bank’s Indicative Assistance Programme .................................................................................. 16
4.4. Non-Lending Programme of Activities ...................................................................................... 16
4.5. CSP Financing .......................................................................................................................... 16
4.6. Monitoring and Evaluation of Bank Group Operations .............................................................. 17
4.7. Country Dialogue ...................................................................................................................... 17
4.8. Risks and Mitigation Measures .................................................................................................. 17
5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................................. 18

LIST OF ANNEXES
ANNEX 1: CSP 2018-2022 RESULTS MONITORING MATRIX
ANNEX 2: GUINEA-INDICATIVE LENDING PROGRAMME FOR AFDB OPERATIONS (2018-2022) IN
UA MILLION
ANNEX 3: STATUS OF BANK’S PORTFOLIO IN GUINEA AS AT 30 JUNE 2018
ANNEX 4: PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE IMPROVEMENT PLAN (REVISED, JUNE2018)
ANNEX 5: SECTORS OF INTERVENTION OF MAIN TFPS (2017)VII
ANNEX 6 : GUINEA – NOTE ON FRAGILITY
ANNEX 7: GUINEA-GENDER ANALYSIS
ANNEX 8: GUINEA - ENVIRONMENT, CLIMATE CHANGE AND GREEN GROWTH-RELATED
CHALLENGES
ANNEX 9: GUINEA-REPORT ON THE FIDUCIARY RISK ASSESSMENT OF THE PUBLIC FINANCE
MANAGEMENT SYSTEM FOR THE CSP, 2018-2022
ANNEX 10: GUINEA-PUBLIC PROCUREMENT FRAMEWORK FOR THE CSP 2018-2022
ANNEX 11: GUINEA-KEY MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
ANNEX 12: COMPARATIVE SOCIOECONOMIC INDICATORS
ANNEX 13: GUINEA - TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR THE PERFORMANCE OF AN OPERATIONAL
AUDIT OF TAX REVENUE AUTHORITIES
ANNEX 14: GUINEA - TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR THE PREPARATION OF DOMESTIC
STRATEGIES FOR LINKAGES WITH THE MINING SECTOR
ANNEX 15: GUINEA – MAIN MESSAGES FROM THE CONSULTATION PROCESS REFLECTED IN
THE PREPARATION OF THE CSP (2018 – 2022)
ANNEX 16: LIST OF PERSONS CONTACTED
ANNEX 17: GUINEA – ENERGY SECTOR PROFILE
ANNEX 18: NOTE ON THE AGRICULTURAL AND AGRIBUSINESS SECTOR IN GUINEA
ANNEX 19: GUINEA – BANK’S INTERVENTION STRATEGY FOR GOVERNANCE UNDER CSP 2018-
2022
ANNEX 20: MAIN ANALYTICAL WORKS CONSULTED

LIST OF TABLES
TABLE 1: DOING BUSINESS RANKINGS (GUINEA 2012 – 2018) .............................................................. 4
TABLE 2: PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE INDICATORS .............................................................................. 8

LIST OF FIGURES
GRAPH 1: GUINEA - GOVERNANCE INDICATORS ................................................................................... 1
GRAPH 2: REAL GDP GROWTH RATE AND INFLATION RATE (2012-2022) IN % .................................. 2
GRAPH 3: SHARE OF SECTORS IN GDP (1988 - 2016) ................................................................................ 2
GRAP 4: PUBLIC DEBT-TO-GDP RATIO ...................................................................................................... 3

LIST OF BOXES
BOX 1: MINING SECTOR CHALLENGES..................................................................................................... 4
BOX 2: NEW LAND TENURE CODE FOR APA ............................................................................................ 6
BOX 3: RELEVANCE OF THE BANK’S COUNTRY OFFICE ....................................................................... 9
CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS
(August 2018)

UA 1 = SDR 1
UA 1 = USD 1.39
UA 1 = EUR 1.20
UA 1 = GNF 12,629.52
USD 1 = GNF 9,045.45
EUR 1 = GNF 10,516.78

FISCAL YEAR

1 January – 31 December

WEIGHTS AND MEASURES

1 metric ton = 2,204 pounds

1 kilogram (kg) = 2.204 pounds
1 metre (m) = 3.28 feet
1 millimetre (mm) = 0.03937 inch
1 kilometre (km) = 0.62 mile
1 hectare (ha) = 2.471 acres

i
Acronyms and Abbreviations

ACGPMP Administration and Control of Major Projects and Public Procurement

ADF African Development Fund
AFD French Development Agency
AfDB African Development Bank
AGER Rural Electrification Agency of Guinea
APA Agrifood Processing Area
ARMP Public Procurement Regulatory Authority
BADEA Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa
BD bidding documents
Bln Billion
CCC Coordination and Consultation Framework
CEED Centre for Environmental Education and Development
CET Common External Tariff
CGAF General Accounts of the Finance Administration
CLSG Côte d'Ivoire, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea
CNE National Environment Council
COGN AfDB Country Office in Guinea
21st Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
COP 21
Change
CPI Corruption perception index
CPIA Country Policy and Institutional Assessment
CPIP Country Portfolio Improvement Plan
CPO Country Programme Officer
CVEP Village Road Maintenance Committee
DB Doing Business
DCN Second National Communication
DNIP National Directorate for Public Investments
DNMP National Directorate for Public Procurements
DNPIP National Directorate for the Portfolio and Promotion of Private Investment
DSC Dispute Settlement Committee
DWS Drinking water supply
BERD Rural Electrification and Development Office
ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States
EDG Electricité de Guinée (Electricity Corporation of Guinea)
EITI Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative
ELEP Light Poverty Assessment Survey
ENAE National School of Agriculture and Livestock
ENATEF National School of Water Resources and Forestry
EU European Union
EUR Euro
EVD Ebola virus disease
FDS Defence and Security Forces
GAP Governance Action Plan
GoG Government of Guinea
GDP Gross domestic product
GHG Greenhouse gases
GNF New Guinean franc
GPHC General Population and Housing Census
GTD Thematic dialogue groups
GWh Gigawatt-hour
Ha Hectare
HDI Human Development Index
High 5 The five top priorities of the AfDB
HIPC Heavily Indebted Poor Countries
HV High Voltage

ii
HV Heavy vehicles
RWSSI Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Initiative
IGF/IGE General Inspectorate of Finance/General Inspectorate of State
IMF International Monetary Fund
INDC Intended nationally determined contribution
INED National Institute of Population Studies
Inhab. Inhabitant
INS National Institute of Statistics
IRAG Institute of Agronomic and Forestry Research
IsDB Islamic Development Bank
Km Kilometre
kWh Kilowatt-hour
LV Low Voltage
MAPS Appraisal Report of the National Procurements System
MDGs Millennium Development Goals
MEEF Ministry of Environment, Water Resources and Forestry
MEF Ministry of Economy and Finance
MICS Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey
MTBF Medium-term budgetary framework
MTEF Medium-term expenditure framework
MV Medium Voltage
MW Megawatts
NTF Nigeria Trust Fund
OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
OFID OPEC Fund for International Development
OMVG Gambia River Basin Development Organisation
PAMSFI Financial Sector Modernisation Support Project
PANA National Action Programme for Adaptation to Climate Change
PAPEGM Economic Planning and Mining Governance Support Project
PARCA-GPI Administrative Capacity-Building Support Project to Manage Integrated Projects
PATAG/EAJ Support Project for the Transformation of Guinean Agriculture - Youth Agricultural
Entrepreneurship
PEFA Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability
PERSIF Post-Ebola Recovery Social Investment Fund
PM/SGG Office of the Prime Minister/General Secretariat of the Government
PMU Project Management Unit
PNC-COP 21 National Consultative Programme on COP21
PNDES National Economic and Social Development Plan
PNIASAN National Agricultural Investment and Food Security Programme
PPF Project Preparation Fund
PPIP Portfolio Improvement Plan
PPP Public-Private Partnership
PPP Potentially problematic project
PPRR Country Portfolio Performance Review
PREREC Electricity Grid Rehabilitation and Extension Project
PSD Country Strategy Paper
RGGBCP General Budget Management and Public Accounting Rules
RIPS Regional Integration Policy and Strategy for Africa
RPG Rassemblement du Peuple de Guinée [Movement of the People of Guinea]
SDGs Sustainable Development Goals
SME Small and medium-sized enterprises
SMI Small and medium-sized industries
SSA Sub-Saharan Africa
STA Single Treasury Account
TAAT Technologies for African Agricultural Transformation
TAP Triennial Action Plan
TEU Twenty-foot equivalent unit
TFP Technical and Financial Partner

iii
TM Team Manager
TMC Technical Monitoring Committee
TNC Transitional National Council
TSF Transition Support Fund
UA Units of Account
UA million Million units of account
US United States
UN United Nations
UNAIDS Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS
UNDP United Nations Development Programme
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund
USD United States dollar
WAMZ West African Monetary Zone
WB World Bank
WHO World Health Organisation

iv
MAP OF GUINEA

v
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1. This Country Strategy Paper proposes the operational strategy of the African
Development Bank Group in Guinea for 2018-2022. It is based on the Bank's 2013-2022
Ten-Year strategy, the High 5s and the Strategy for Addressing Fragility and Building
Resilience in Africa. Furthermore, it is consistent with the National Economic and Social
Development Plan (PNDES) 2016 - 2020 of the Government of Guinea (GoG) and seeks to: (1)
address the challenge of fragility in Guinea; (2) stimulate structural change and catalytic
investments to increase access to energy; and (3) build the capacity to produce, process and
develop agricultural products with a view to achieving food self-sufficiency.

2. On 25 June 2018, the Committee on Operations and Development Effectiveness

(CODE) noted the satisfactory implementation of the 2012-2016/17 strategy and
supported the strategic guidelines proposed by Management for the new 2018-2022
strategy, as well as the proposed pillars, namely: Pillar 1 - Improve access to energy; and Pillar
2 - Develop agricultural and industrial value chains. On that occasion, CODE also
recommended that: (1) emphasis be laid on fragility in the next CSP; (2) the country's debt level
should be closely monitored; and (3) sustained policy dialogue should be maintained with
Guinean authorities. All these recommendations have been factored into this CSP.

3. The agricultural sector, characterised by low factor productivity, requires future

collaboration between the country and the Bank. Guinea is a West African country with a
surface area of 245,857 km2 and a population of nearly 12 million. In 2016, the economy was
dominated by services, which accounted for 45% of the gross domestic product (GDP),
followed by industry (31%). Agriculture, which accounts for 20% of GDP, employs 52% of the
labour force and is characterised by poor yields (approximately 1.2 tons per hectare for rice).
This CSP will focus on developing agricultural potential to reduce food insecurity (30.3% in
2012) and poverty that affects the population, with 52.2% surviving on less than USD 1.25/day
in 2012, compared to 17% for developing countries (Annex 12).

4. The country is grappling with fragility factors that discourage inclusive growth.
After an economic slowdown in 2014-2015 caused by the Ebola crisis, economic performance
has gradually recovered with growth surging from 3.8% in 2015 to 10.5% in 2016, before
dropping to 8.2% in 2017. This growth is mainly driven by the revival of mining activity.
Limited access to factors of production has slowed the momentum of manufacturing industry.
However, this growth is neither inclusive nor green enough to ensure a sustainable reduction of
poverty and inequality, and to protect the environment. From 2018 to 2022, the growth rate is
expected to be in the 5 to 6% range. To ensure that this growth is better shared and guarantees
a transition towards resilience, the Bank's new strategy in Guinea will help GoG address its
fragility challenges by: (i) reducing spatial disparities (between urban and rural areas) mainly
in terms of access to energy and factor productivity in agricultural activities; (ii) combating
food insecurity; (iii) combating environmental degradation caused by deforestation and coastal
erosion; and (iv) reducing gender inequalities.

5. The main recommendation on dialogue between the Bank and GoG is to increase
access to energy in order to support inclusive growth, and to promote agricultural
development by focusing on sectors in which Guinea has a comparative advantage. The
vast majority of the Guinean population is involved in agriculture, producing yields that are far
below sector potential. Electricity sector contribution to agricultural production could generate
opportunities for intensive farming and the processing of Guinea's main crops. This is
particularly the case for rice, which is the leading crop in terms of yield (2.11 million tons) and

vi
imports (403,000 tons for USD 152 million) in 2017. Accordingly, this strategy focuses on two
pillars: (i) improve access to energy; and (ii) develop agricultural and industrial value
chains. These pillars will contribute to achievement of the strategic objectives of the High 5s,
PNDES guidelines and the sustainable development goals (SDGs). Accordingly, the main
objective of this strategy is to improve the living conditions of rural communities through
expanded access to energy and the integrated development of agrifood processing areas.

vii
1. INTRODUCTION

1.1. This Country Strategy Paper proposes the operational strategy of the African
Development Bank Group in Guinea for 2018-2022. The new strategy should accompany
initiatives to address fragility challenges, including social and spatial inequalities in energy
access as well as poverty related to food insecurity. Cognisant of these challenges, GoG has
embarked on a process of rallying its partners to help boost the country’s resilience.

1.2. The new strategy seeks to broaden the basis for inclusive and sustainable growth
by improving the supply of energy to communities and productive activities, and
developing agriculture and agricultural product processing. The selection procedure is
consistent with PNDES 2016-2020, the Bank’s Ten-year Strategy 2013-2022 and the High 5s,
as well as the 2063 Agenda of the African Union, all of which are geared towards transforming
the continent. The novelty of this new CSP resides in aligning its strategic choices with Guinea's
main development challenges and the High 5s, while tackling governance and capacity-building
concerns through a crosscutting approach.

1.3. On 25 June 2018, the Committee on Operations and Development Effectiveness

(CODE) took note of the satisfactory implementation of the 2012-2016/17 strategy and
supported the strategic thrusts proposed by Management for the new 2018-2022 strategy,
as well as the proposed pillars, namely: Pillar 1 - Improve access to energy; and Pillar 2 -
Develop agricultural and industrial value chains. On that occasion, CODE also recommended
that: (1) emphasis be laid on fragility in the next CSP; (2) the country's debt level should be
closely monitored; and (3) sustained policy dialogue should be maintained with Guinean
authorities. All these recommendations have been factored into this CSP.

1.4. After this introduction, Chapter 2 examines the country context, Chapter 3 presents
the strategic options, Chapter 4 presents the Bank's intervention strategy for Guinea in 2018-
2022, and Chapter 5 presents the conclusions of the paper and the recommendation submitted
to the Board.

2. COUNTRY CONTEXT

2.1. Political Trends Graph 1: Guinea - Governance Indicators

2.1.1. Guinea is still experiencing socio-

Voice and 23,9
political tensions. A review of its fragility accountability 26,1
spectrum in 2018 revealed the persistence of 4,2
Rule of law
fragility factors in its institutions and political 8,7
process. The concerns that will be targeted Regulatory quality 17,1
19,2
through policy dialogue under CSP 2018-2022
relate to the organisation of legislative Political stability 10,0
31,0
elections in March 2019 and presidential Government 12,8
elections in 2020. The ruling party, the effectiveness 14,9
Rassemblement du peuple de Guinée Arc-en- Control of corruption 13,3
Ciel (RPG Arc-en-Ciel) was formed in 2012 by 14,9
a coalition of 45 political parties. The President 0 20 40
of the Republic of Guinea, Professor Alpha
2011 2016
CONDE, was re-elected for a second five-year
Source: World Bank
term in the October 2015 presidential election,
which he won in the first round with 58% of the
votes.

1
2.1.2. Demands for the organisation of legislative and local council elections, as well as
strikes by various trade unions, have sometimes been violent, causing significant loss of
human life and material damage. The country’s Mo Ibrahim Governance Index rating of
45.5/100 in 2016 is below the African average (50.8) and the average for West African countries
(53.8). Although the accountability score remains particularly low at of 18.5/100, the national
security score of 89.2 is among the best in Africa. According to World Bank governance
indicators (Graph 1), Guinea has made significant progress since 2011 in terms of political
stability, but still ranks in the bottom decile in terms of rule of law. In July 2018, the 25%
increase in the pump price of petroleum products, continued to spark unrest in the country,
characterised by a series of strikes and ghost town campaigns. Dialogue efforts are underway
between trade unions, GoG and employers’ associations.

2.2. Economic Trends Graph 2: Real GDP Growth Rate and Inflation Rate
(2012-2022) in %
2.2.1. Economic Growth and Structural
Transformation: The Ebola virus disease 25%
(EVD) epidemic slashed the growth rate 20%
from 5.9% in 2012 to 3.8% in 2015 but Inflation rate
economic recovery was strong in 2016 and 15%
2017. Thanks to economic recovery efforts
10%
made after the EVD epidemic and the robust
performance of the mining sector, Guinea's 5%
Growth rate
GDP surged by 10.5% in 2016 and 8.2% in
0%
2017 (Graph 2). This growth rate is expected

2015

2020
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

2016
2017
2018
2019

2021
2022
to range from 5.3% to 5.8% over the 2018-
2022 period, supported mainly by reforms to Source : ECST/AfDB
improve the business environment and
governance in the extractive industries, as
well as support for agribusiness modernisation and improved energy availability.

2.2.2. The country is characterised by Graph 5: Share of sectors in GDP (1988 - 2016)
poor transformation of its economy. In
60
2016, services accounted for 45% of national
GDP (see graph 3) and 34.3% of total 50
Services
employment. Industrial activities generated
Taux (%)

40
31% of GDP, compared to 20% for
agriculture. These two sectors respectively 30 Industry
generated 13.7% and 52% of jobs (GPHC 20
2014). The decline in industry contribution to Agriculture
GDP, from 34% in 1988 to 31% in 2016, is 10
1992

2002

2016
1988
1990

1994
1996
1998
2000

2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014

indicative of a slight structural transformation

of the Guinean economy. Significant Source : Online Database – World Bank
investments in extractive industries over the
last five years are expected to reverse this trend by 2022.

2.2.3. Budget Management: Recent and significant infrastructure spending has

aggravated the budget deficit. The overall budget deficit (net of grants) deteriorated from
1.3% of GDP in 2016 to 3.6% in 2017. This deficit is expected to drop gradually to 3.5% of
GDP in 2018 and 2.6% of GDP in 2022, thanks to an investment policy that is increasingly
geared towards public-private partnership (PPP) as well as GoG’s efforts to enhance control of
the budgetary impact of such PPPs. In 2017, tax revenue amounting to GNF 12,443 billion was
raised compared to GNF 10,930 billion in 2016, representing an increase of 14%. The tax
burden stood at 13.4% of GDP in 2017 with 2.3% coming from mid-term tax revenue. Despite
2
an increase in collected revenue, the yield remains far below Guinea's real fiscal potential and
the tax burden average for Sub-Saharan Africa (16% of GDP). Such low yield partly stems from
the limited population of taxpayers and inadequate tax controls. To remedy this situation, GoG,
with the support of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), has embarked on a programme to
improve domestic revenue collection to make it commensurate with the country's fiscal
potential. 1 In 2017, public expenditure (17.5% of GDP) was financed 79% by public revenue,
12% by loans and 9% by grants.

2.2.4. Public Debt: Public investment, Graph 8: Public debt-to-GDP Ratio

financed by loans, raised the debt level
from 27.2% of GDP in 2012 to 37.2% in 80%
2017. In December 2010, Guinea reached the 70%
60%
completion point of the Heavily Indebted
50% Total
Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative, thus 40%
reducing its debt ratio from 58.1% of GDP in 30% External
2011 to 27.2% in 2012 (Figure 4). Due to 20%
significant loans contracted from 2013 10% Domestic
onwards to finance backbone and priority 0%

2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
energy and road infrastructure, the public
debt ratio gradually rose to 39.8% of GDP in
2016 before dropping slightly to 37.2% in Source : Online database – IMF

2017. Domestic debt surged from 9.3% of

GDP in 2012 to 17.6% in 2017. Over the same period, the external debt increased from 18% of
GDP to 19.8%. According to the IMF,2 the public debt should remain below the threshold (70%
of GDP) set in the convergence framework of the Economic Community of West African States
(ECOWAS) until 2022. The debt sustainability analysis conducted by the IMF and the World
Bank, published in October 2017, indicates that the country's debt distress risk is moderate.

2.2.5. Inflation and Exchange Rate: Although the inflation rate has been relatively
contained, recent trends show that it has worsened relatively from 7.3% in 2015 to 9.5%
in 2017 due to food price hikes caused mainly by an insufficient supply of vegetables and fish
on the local market. According to projections, Central Bank implementation of a monetary
policy that complies with the ECOWAS convergence criterion on budget deficit financing and
the application of a positive real interest rate should make it possible to lower the inflation rate
to 8% in 2018 and to a range of 6% to 8% between 2019 and 2022. The exchange rate of the
Guinean franc (GNF) continues to depreciate, worsening from GNF 1,797 in 2000 to GNF
9,088 per dollar in 2017, mainly due to low export earnings from mining products. External
reserves should increase, thanks to ongoing reforms to enhance the autonomy of the Central
Bank. Such increase should consolidate exchange rate stability. In this regard, the exchange
rate could stabilise around GNF 8,500 per dollar by 2022.

2.2.6. Private Sector and Business Environment: The private sector is characterised by
a strong predominance of the informal sector, which creates about 95.2% of jobs in the
economy, mainly in the agricultural sector. The formal sector employs 4.8% of the labour
force, mainly in government services. Credit to the private sector remains low, owing to the
tight liquidity conditions of banks and the crowding-out effect created by high investment
demand from the public and para-public sectors. In 2017, credit to the private sector peaked at
USD 912.7 million, compared to 1.2 billion for the public sector. According to the World Bank's
2018 Doing Business report, Guinea has moved up 26 spots in the rankings relative to 2012. It
is currently 153rd/190. This progress mainly stems from reforms implemented in terms of

1 IMF, Guinea - Réforme des administrations fiscale et douanière – les leviers pour progresser, Washington, June 2018, 51 pages
2 IMF, Guinea: First Review of the Arrangement under the Three-Year Extended Credit Facility, IMF Country Report No. 18/234, June
2018, p.24
3
obtaining building permits and facilitating the creation of businesses. However, the business
climate still lags behind in terms of paying taxes, getting electricity and trading across borders
(see Table 1). The corruption perception index of Transparency International was 27 in 2017
compared to 24 in 2012, ranking Guinea at 148th out of 180 countries (see Annexes 6 and 9 on
fragility and the fiduciary framework).
Table 1: Doing Business Ranking (Guinea 2012 - 18)
2.2.7. External Trade: The current
Criteria 2012 2018 Difference
account balance showed a surplus, but
Starting a business 181 125 56
did not translate into an improvement Dealing with construction permits 174 75 99
in foreign exchange reserves. In 2017, Getting electricity 119 159 -40
the current account balance recorded a Registering property 152 143 9
surplus 5% of GDP following a surge in Getting credit 150 142 8
mining exports. However, this surplus Protecting investors 174 146 28
did not lead to an increase in external Paying taxes 176 182 -6
assets, owing to the low repatriation of Trading across borders 130 165 -35
export earnings from mining products. Enforcing contracts 127 117 10
Thus, the overall deficit of USD 44 Resolving insolvency 130 111 19
million was financed through drawdowns Overall 179 153 26
from the IMF and other donors. This led Source: Doing Business, 2012, 2018
to the replenishment of foreign exchange reserves up to USD 76.50 million, albeit without
making provision to cover the three months of imports as required by ECOWAS convergence
standards. Trade is concentrated on mining products whose export share increased from 74%
in 2012 to 90% in 2017, and whose exploitation is not sufficiently inclusive (Box 1). Imports
are significantly dominated by oil and food products, whose average share over the 2012-2017
period was 23% and 19%, respectively.

2.2.8. Regional Integration: Guinea Box 1: Mining Sector Challenges

actively participates in regional
integration efforts, but its level of
trade with the sub-region remains
very low. Since January 2017, it has
applied the common external tariff
(CET) adopted by ECOWAS in 2014.
Exports to ECOWAS accounted for
only 0.5% of its total exports in 2017,
mainly to Ghana (89.1%), Mali (5.8%)
and Senegal (3.0%). Imports from
ECOWAS represented 4.3% of the total
in 2017 and remain dominated by
automobile products or spare parts
(46.5%), followed by petroleum
products (13.2%), food and beverages
(11.1%), and machinery and equipment
(8.5%). They come mainly from
Senegal (13.4%), Sierra Leone
(10.5%), Côte d'Ivoire (9.9%), Mali
(3.0%) and Ghana (2.4%).
Guinea has exceptional mining potential and holds two
thirds of the world's known bauxite reserves. Most of the
major international mining companies such as RioTinto
(United Kingdom/Australia), Alcoa (United States), Vale
(Brazil), AngloGoldAshanti (United Kingdom/South
Africa) and Rusal (Russia) currently operate in the
country. With about 20 mega projects planned for the next
five years, plus the USD 20 billion agreement with China,
the mining sector is expected to grow considerably in the
coming years. However, this development raises many
expectations as well as problems and challenges. The
concentration of activities on mining increases the
country’s economic dependence and vulnerability. Mining
also generates toxic waste as well as conflicts that could
trigger strong social tensions, as in Siguiri in 2015 and
Boké in 2017. The situation is aggravated and catalysed by
frustrated hopes, the demand for more transparency and
community participation in the spillover effects of growth.
Accordingly, it has become imperative to channel, redirect
and integrate mining activity into the economy to ensure
inclusive and green growth.
Source: Frederic Thomas, Enjeux miniers en Guinée, Centre
Tricontinental, Belgium, December 2017, 3 pages.

2.3. Social Context

2.3.1. Guinea is in the bottom quintile in terms of quality of life. The 2017 Human
Development Report ranked Guinea in the 183rd position out of 188 countries with a human
development index (HDI) of 0.414. Poverty levels remain high with an incidence that increased
4
from 41.9% in 2002 to 53.7% in 2007 and then to 55.2% in 2012. The informal sector employs
95.2% of the population. The majority of informal sector jobs (77.5%) are generated by rural
development in the broadest sense of the term (agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing). The
unemployment rate was 5.2% in 2014, higher for men (6.3%) than for women (3.9%), with
significant disparities between urban (11.1%) and rural (2.25%) areas. These unemployment
rates mask serious challenges related to underemployment (12.8%). According to the GPHC
2014 results, unemployment affects 34.7% of university graduates and 27.7% of technical
education graduates.

2.3.2. Gender: Gender equality and equity is still a concern in Guinea although
encouraging measures are being implemented. The National Gender Policy has been
updated, validated and disseminated in 2017. There are no legal restrictions on women's access
to the labour market, education and health. However, in March 2018, female representation was
only 22% in Parliament, 18% at the Supreme Court (3 women out of 17 judges), 24% at the
Economic and Social Council, 14% of ministers in 2017, 2% of mayors and 18% of household
heads. Only 26% of civil servants are women, most of them with limited responsibilities. GPHC
2014 results indicate that early marriage (ages 12-14) significantly affects girls at a prevalence
of 5.5%, regardless of where they live.

2.3.3. Education: Much remains to be done in education to develop skills for the
country’s socioeconomic transformation. Hence, the gross primary enrolment ratio rose from
81% in 2012 to 88.6% in 2017. However, this ratio dropped in 2015 (79.8%) due to the Ebola
epidemic, before rising back to 88.6% in 2017. The primary school completion rate fell from
59.4% in 2016 to 52.2% in 2017. The secondary enrolment ratio rose from 38% in 2016 to
42.5% in 2017.

2.3.4. Health: Access to health remains limited, especially in rural areas. The infant
mortality rate improved markedly from 67‰ in 2012 to 44‰ in 2016, relative to the 2015 target
of 45.2‰. The health system faces many challenges, including: (i) high maternal, infant, child
and neonatal mortality rates in 2016 of 550 per 100,000 live births, 88 per 1000 and 23 per
1000, respectively; (ii) high prevalence of communicable diseases, epidemic-prone diseases
(Ebola, meningitis, cholera, measles, etc.); and noncommunicable diseases; (iii) poor
performance of the health system in its six basic pillars (0.5 of midwives per 10,000 inhabitants
relative to a standard of 1/1000 in 2014, and one bed per 3600 compared to a standard of
1/1000); and (iv) low geographic access for the target population (less than 5 km for 46% in
2014).

2.3.5. Water and Sanitation: In 2016, national household access rates to safe drinking water
and improved sanitation facilities were 82% and 53%, respectively. 3 Rural household access to
drinking water increased from 65% to 72% between 2012 and 2016, compared to 96% to 98%
over the same period in urban areas. The proportion of households having access to improved
sanitation facilities rose sharply from 11% to 32% between 2012 and 2016 (from 35% to 87%
in urban areas over the same period).

2.3.6. Environmental situation: Apart from the coastline that is subjected to various
types of aggression, climate change (see Annex 8) is a major concern. With over 300 km of
coastline, a surface area of 47400 km² and a breadth of 40 to 100 km, Guinea’s continental shelf
is the largest in West Africa. However, the coastal area is gradually being degraded, mainly by
coastal erosion and the discharge of domestic and industrial waste into the sea, which causes
significant pollution. In response to climate challenges, the government in September 2015
developed an Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) document to promote

3 EDS 2012 Survey Report and MICS-Palu 2016

5
climate-sensitive economic development. In 2017, its implementation led to the reforestation
of 650 ha, compared to the annual target of 1000 ha.

3. STRATEGIC OPTIONS

3.1. Guinea’s Strategic Framework

3.1.1. The PNDES is Guinea's reference framework for 2016-2020 and is consistent with
Vision 2040 for a prosperous and emerging Guinea. It focuses on four pillars, namely: (i)
promotion of good governance at the service of sustainable development; (ii) sustainable and
inclusive economic transformation; (iii) inclusive human capital development; and (iv)
sustainable management of natural capital. The PNDES is inspired by and constitutes the first
operationalization phase of the document “Vision 2040 for an emerging and prosperous
Guinea”. The objectives that GoG has set for itself through its main strategic instruments are
consistent with the Bank's Ten-Year Strategy 2013-2022 and the High 5s.

3.1.2. During PNDES implementation, GoG adopted two major priorities: access to
energy and agricultural development. To meet the energy access challenge, 15 national and
regional public projects are being
implemented by GoG with the support of Box 2: New Land Code for APAs
various partners. GoG’s objective is to The 1992 Land Code in force is no longer applicable
and remains silent on the acquisition of farmland. A
improve the electricity access rate from review of World Trade Organization (WTO) trade
29% in 2017 to 35% in 2020. In rural areas, policies in April 2018 and the conclusions of a June
the target is to raise the rate from 7% in 2018 academic symposium in Conakry on “Land Tenure
2017 to 10% in 2020. The PNDES Issues and Sustainable Development Prospects: What
specifically provides for: (i) the execution Challenges for Africa” converge on the fact that land
tenure security is a precondition for investment in
of major hydroelectricity projects; (ii) the Guinea. The lack of land titles discourages agricultural
continuation of institutional structural investments. According to WTO, more than two thirds of
reforms at Electricité de Guinée (EDG), the the land belongs to the State and is inalienable, and for
Guinea Rural Electrification Authority the rest, customary law continues to prevail over
(AGER) and the Energy Regulation positive law. To close this gap and encourage the
emergence of 10 APAs planned by the Government, a
Authority; and (iii) the electrification of new land code is being drafted and it is becoming more
urban and rural communities. than urgent.
 Source: WTO, Guinea - Trade Policy Review, Geneva, 24
3.1.3. The PNDES also considers that April 2018, 100 p.
dependence on food imports is a
fundamental constraint to achieving  International Conference “Land tenure issues and
prospects for sustainable development: what challenges
inclusive and sustainable growth. GoG for Africa”, Lansana Conté Sofonia University, Conakry,
plans to take into account the comparative 14 June 2018.
advantages of each region during the
creation of 10 agricultural growth poles (Agrifood Processing Area - APA). The country's
agricultural strategy provides for the development of essential socioeconomic infrastructure in
rural and semi-urban areas (highways, farm-to-market roads, irrigation schemes, storage and
processing infrastructure, drinking water and sanitation points, smart infrastructure, etc.) and
improved access to farmland to encourage greater private sector participation in agricultural
development (Box 2). The gradual establishment of APAs in all regions of the country will
focus on high value-added sectors and the creation of synergies.

3.2. Aid Coordination, Alignment and Harmonisation

3.2.1. Guinea has a wide presence of both bilateral and multilateral technical and
financial partners (TFPs) on its territory that support the country's development (Annex
4). In recent years, China has significantly strengthened its cooperation with Guinea in
infrastructure, health, agriculture and the private sector, especially in extractive industries and
6
energy production. China and some Arab countries have become major partners through their
development cooperation institutions.

3.2.2. While implementing PNDES 2016-2020, GoG affirmed its will to strengthen aid
coordination by setting up consultation mechanisms. In addition to the Coordination and
Consultation Framework (CCC), which is the strategic coordination forum between the
Government and the TFPs, a Technical Monitoring Committee (CTS) has been set up to
strengthen inter-sector coordination and Thematic Dialogue Groups (GTDs), bringing together
representatives of TFPs and GoG at sector level. A meeting of the “Electricity and Water”
thematic group, in which the Bank plays a very active role, is held quarterly. The Bank co-
chairs the thematic groups on “Macroeconomics, Public Finance and Business Climate” and
“Mines and Transport”. While partners meet formally or informally to discuss issues of
common interest, coordination on the government side has suffered severely due to weak
institutional and human capacity. The challenge for GoG is to support a proactive approach that
requires regular consultation with various partners. The consultation will facilitate the
ownership, alignment and harmonisation of aid in order to achieve the optimal harnessing of
TFP resources for the country's development.

3.3. Strengths and Opportunities/Weaknesses and Challenges

3.3.1. As previously mentioned, Guinea has many strengths and opportunities that can
be leveraged to accelerate economic transformation and inclusive growth in its economy.
However, the country must also tackle some major challenges. These strengths, opportunities
and challenges are discussed below:

Strengths and Opportunities

i) Regional Energy Potential: Guinea’s hydropower potential is estimated at 6000 MW, of which less than 3% has been
tapped. Effectively developed, this potential could supply the entire West African sub-region with electricity. Ongoing
projects, some of which are financed by the Bank, will enable Guinea to play a major role in the regional energy
market in West Africa. GoG has much leeway to embark on in-depth institutional and regulatory reforms to attract
the private sector to finance the development of this sector and reduce the share of biomass as a main energy source.
Hence, private sector share in energy production increased from 16% in 2000 to 31% in 2016.

ii) Major Agricultural Potential: Guinea has significant agricultural potential that remains untapped. It has 6.2 million
ha of arable land, 25% of which is cultivated annually; and 364,000 ha of irrigable land, of which less than 10% is
developed.
iii) Position Conducive to Regional Integration: By virtue of its geographical position, Guinea could play a key role in
trade within West Africa, mainly by opening up access to certain neighbouring landlocked countries like Mali to allow
the transit of goods to Conakry Port. Guinea has the potential for regional integration networks favourable to the
transport of energy and agro-industry products.
iv) Mining Resources: Guinea's mining potential is estimated at 40 billion tons of bauxite, or about 2/3 of the world's
reserves. The country has the largest untapped iron reserves in the world (20 billion tons). The gold potential is
700,000 tons and the diamond potential varies between 30 to 40 million carats of proven reserves and 500 million
carats of probable reserves. Other resources in its subsoil include nickel, copper, cobalt, chromium, manganese,
uranium and limestone. Several prospecting campaigns attest to the probable existence of petroleum.
Weaknesses and Challenges
i) Exposure to major factors of fragility: Guinea’s fragility is manifest in several areas: (i) politics (tensions around
electoral issues); (ii) socioeconomic (social tensions linked to demands for better living conditions for civil servants); an d
(iii) health (insufficient provision of a quality health, hygiene and sanitation services, thus exposing the population to
epidemics). According to the Peace Fund's 2017 report, the country is ranked 12 th (out of 178) among countries most
vulnerable to fragility.
ii) High level of poverty: The latest light monetary poverty assessment survey, which dates from 2012, puts the incidence
of monetary poverty at 55.2%, compared to 53% in 2007, with high vulnerability for women and the youth (SDG 1.1). Such
monetary poverty is more widespread in rural areas (65% against 35% in urban areas). The Gini index of 0.317 always
characterises a society with persistent inequalities (SDG 10.1). Unemployment affects 5.2% of the population (GPHC 2014),
masking, however, a significant underemployment rate of 12.8% within the population (2012). Persons with a high level of
education are relatively more exposed to unemployment. According to the GPHC results, unemployment affects 34.7% of
university graduates and 27.7% of technical education graduates.

7
 iii) Limited access to energy: The electricity access rate is 29% (including 11% as illegal connections) nationwide
compared to a Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) average of 32%. The access rate is 7% in urban areas and 14% in SSA. In terms
of getting electricity, the country has fallen behind from 119th in 2012 to 159th in 2018 according to Doing Business, with a
score of zero for reliability of supply and transparency of tariffs. Electricity rates charged are not enough to cover operating
costs. Electricity is sold at a maximum price of GNF 800 (less than 0.1 dollar) per kWh while the average cost is GNF 2,700
GNF per kWh (0.3 dollar).
iv) Limited food production and a consequent rise in imports: The country is experiencing a burgeoning trade deficit
in food products. In 2016, food imports reached USD 967 million, compared to USD 106 million for exports. Cereal imports
amount to USD 339 million. For the most part, agricultural constraints stem from the small size of farms; a lack of
infrastructure, technology, equipment and inputs; the low level of farmer organisation; and limited product development
and value chain integration.
v) High dependence of the economy on the mining sector: The country’s economy is heavily dependent on mining,
which develops on the sidelines of the rest of the economy, thus discouraging an inclusive redistribution of the economic
potential of this sector. The share of extractive activities in secondary sector value-added is estimated at 43.7% in 2017;
while that of the manufacturing sector is 37%. On average, over 80% of exports come from the mining sector, with a 12%
contribution to GDP and a low contribution to jobs (2.6%) and tax revenue (17%). Manufacturing industries provide only
8% of total employment and 12.7% of GDP. Hence, the challenge is to increase the contribution of this sector to national
development.

3.4. Review of the Bank's Portfolio Performance in Guinea

3.4.1. As of 30 June 2018, the Bank’s portfolio in Guinea comprised 16 operations

amounting to a total commitment of UA 282.95 million. The portfolio is dominated by
regional public projects (64.23% of commitments) comprising nine operations. National public
projects represent only 11.33% of commitments with six operations. The portfolio also includes
a non-sovereign operation with 24.44% of commitments. The sector breakdown of the portfolio
shows a predominance of the energy sector with six operations representing 39.39% of
commitments, followed by transport with three operations (25.25%); industry with one
operation (24.44%); governance with three
operations (6.24%), the social sector with one Table 2: Portfolio Management Indicators
operation (3.47%) and agriculture with one Key Performance Indicators Feb. June
operation (0.35%). 2016 2018
Project performance (score out of 4) 3.1 3.4
National public disbursement rate (%) 66.3 65.6
3.4.2. The overall performance resulting Time limit between approval and
from implementation of the portfolio is fulfilment of conditions precedent to first
11.6 8.5
satisfactory with a score of 3.4 on 4 (Table disbursement (months)
Average age (year) 2.5 2.9
2). This performance shows an upward trend
Number of old projects 6 0
compared to the last two reviews conducted Risky projects (%) 0 0
in February 2016 (3.1/4) and March 2018 Average size of operations (in UA million)
14.5 15.4
(3.4/4). Much of the performance stems from
the effective operationalization of the Bank's country office since September 2017 (Box 3). This
proximity has led to an improvement in the monitoring of evaluation criteria (loan conditions,
procurement of goods and services, etc.). As of 30 June 2018, the cumulative disbursement
rate of the portfolio was 65.6% for national public sector operations and 9.9% for regional
operations.

3.4.3. Despite these improvements, the Bank's active portfolio presents some challenges.
The main ones are: (i) the start-up period is 12.4 months instead of the 6 months recommended
by the Bank; (ii) the procurement period is on average 5 months longer than the statutory time
limit; (iii) the preparation time for bidding documents (BDs) and the time limit for signature
after the Bank's formal approval notice are abnormally long; (iv) inadequate project

8
monitoring/evaluation by State structures; and (v) delays in providing counterpart funds, which
hinder the effective start-up of certain projects.

3.4.4. The portfolio has no problematic projects. However, it is projected that 10 of the 16
operations in the current portfolio, were or would be given an extension of one to two years.
The EVD outbreak in March 2014 had a negative impact on project implementation, including
for energy and road infrastructure projects.

3.4.5. Country Portfolio Performance Improvement Plan (revised PPIP 2018): This plan
calls for the implementation of specific measures to promote flexibility and accelerate project
implementation. In this regard, 14 actions have been proposed, including: (i) the establishment of
project management teams with a clear status and performance contracts; (ii) the timely production of
implementation status reports (quarterly and annual) and their dissemination to monitoring structures;
(iii) the timely transmission of supporting documents in accordance with Bank rules and procedures,
and the strengthening of internal control; and (iv) strict compliance with the legal agreements signed
between the Bank and the Government on counterpart payments.

3.5. Main Conclusions of the CSP 2012-2016/17 Completion Report

3.5.1. The CSP 2012-2015 completion report reviewed by CODE on 12 February 2016 indicates
that performance in implementing the Bank’s assistance strategy for 2012-2015 is broadly
positive. The CSP comprised two pillars: (1) economic and financial governance; and (2)
development support infrastructure. Box 3: Relevance of the Bank's Country Office
According to the overall forecasts of CSP
2012-2016/17, Guinea would receive an The Bank's presence in Guinea since September
estimated UA 199.01 million in financing, 2017 has been instrumental in helping the
compared to UA 353.60 million actually government improve portfolio performance and
implement innovative reforms. Its office in Guinea
approved at the end of the CSP period, to was active in organising a fiduciary clinic in June
finance backbone projects and programmes as 2018; advisory support and supervision missions on
well as capacity-building and emergency a regular basis with the project management units
support operations. (PMUs) during the first half of 2018; increasingly
frequent visits of Bank experts, including fiduciary
management experts; and project managers to
3.5.2. The Bank has played an important expedite the processing of pending documents. With
role in the dialogue with GoG on several regard to advisory services in the context of
strategic reforms and issues. It co-chairs the innovative reforms, the Country Office already offers
thematic groups on “Macroeconomics, Public advisory support to the Government on local revenue
Finance and Business Climate” and on collection to substantially finance priorities related
to energy access, food security and the quality of life
“Mines and Transport”. It led the “Energy and
of Guineans. The Bank's responsiveness, which the
Water” Thematic Group, and participated in government has often found to be unsatisfactory,
the Select Committee for monitoring the should gradually improve as the Country Office
implementation of the Public-Private consolidates its presence.
Partnership (PPP) Law.

3.5.3. Bank support under Pillar 1 covered six operations worth UA 43 million that
yielded appreciable implementation results. The implementation of two budget support
measures made it possible to adopt the customs code, establish the Court of Auditors, audit
State accounts and train managers in public finance management, among others. The Bank's
targeted and institutional support contributed mainly to the adoption of the Mining and
Petroleum Codes, the PPP law, the review of mining contracts and Guinea's compliance with
the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI).

3.5.4. Pillar 2 comprised four operations in the energy sector and three in the transport
sector worth UA 267 million. Energy sector operations, worth UA 126 million, were deemed
satisfactory. These operations facilitated implementation of the Energy Sector Recovery Plan
9
with an adapted pricing model, the rehabilitation of electricity networks in Conakry's
municipalities and rural electrification, thus raising the electricity access rate from 3% in 2012
to 7% in 2017. Works on electricity interconnection infrastructure, aimed at establishing a
dynamic electricity market in the West African sub-region and involving seven countries,
including Guinea as an energy hub, are in the start-up phase. In the transport sector, the three
operations approved between 2012 and 2017 for UA 240 million were still outstanding at the
end of December 2017.

3.5.5. The Bank's flexibility has led to rapid consideration of emergency requests. Five
emergency operations worth UA 43 million were oriented towards combating the EVD
outbreak that started in late 2013. The Bank has triggered several financing instruments used in
collaboration with the more specialised agencies of the United Nations system. Its partnership
with other stakeholders in the country, and the combined efforts of all helped to curb the spread
of the disease and contain it definitively in June 2015.

3.6. Lessons Learned

3.6.1. The CSP 2012-2016/17 completion report has helped to deepen understanding of
the problem of fragility in Guinea. Consideration of the lessons learned from that report will
increase the Bank’s effectiveness in helping Guinea to achieve its development goals during
the CSP period (2018-2022).

3.6.2. Bank operations would be more beneficial if they were also oriented towards
governance and capacity building on the focus areas of the High 5s. The Bank's actions
over the past 10 years have been more oriented towards financial governance but each operation
was designed and executed without any real synergy with capacity building in the Bank's
priority areas, such as roads, energy, agriculture, industry, regional integration and human
development. Accordingly, the new CSP will focus on integrated interventions, concentrating
on the High 5s to better contribute to Guinea's progress towards sustainable and inclusive
growth.

3.6.3. Raising more domestic resources is essential to accelerate growth and give more
visibility to the Bank's operations under the High 5s. The tax revenue volume of 13.4% of
GDP in 2017 relative to an average of 15% for SSA is insufficient to finance the plans set out
in the PNDES. The improved collection of domestic financial resources will promote inclusive
and green growth as the country embarks on major projects in the mining, energy production
and agro-industrial production sectors financed by the private sector. Support for fiscal
governance will also reduce the informal nature of the private sector, which in part reflects the
lack of appropriate business registration structures.

4. BANK GROUP STRATEGY IN GUINEA FOR 2018-2022

4.1. Rationale and Strategic Selectivity

4.1.1. Through dialogue with GoG, civil society, the private sector and other
stakeholders, six selectivity criteria were identified for the Bank's new strategic and
operational choices in Guinea during the period 2018-2022, using a participatory and
consensual approach. These criteria are : (i) alignment on Guinea's development priorities
and the PNDES; (ii) alignment on the Bank's Ten-Year Strategy and the High 5s; (iii) the Bank's
operational comparative advantage in Guinea; (iv) consultations with stakeholders; (v)

10
complementarity with other partners; and (vi) lessons from implementing the previous CSP
2012-2016/17.

4.1.2. The Bank's first criterion for selecting operations is guided by the need to address
Guinea's development priorities as articulated in the PNDES, and to help it exploit its
assets and opportunities while addressing the challenges of fragility and vulnerability to
internal and external shocks. Energy development and agricultural and industrial value chains
are the major priorities of the PNDES. It also seeks to reduce Guinea's vulnerabilities, which
stem mainly from inequalities, climatic hazards and exogenous shocks linked to the country's
dependence on food imports (mainly rice) as well as the concentration of exports on mining
products whose prices are highly volatile.

4.1.3. Alignment of the new CSP on Bank strategies is the second selectivity criterion.
Special attention is paid to the Bank's Ten-Year Strategy 2013-2022 and the High 5s. The new
CSP is consistent with the New Deal on Energy for Africa, the Bank Group's Jobs for Youth in
Africa Strategy 2016-2025, the Gender Strategy 2014-2018, the Strategic Framework and
Governance Action Plan (GAP II) 2014-2018, the Strategy for Agricultural Transformation in
Africa 2016-2025, the Bank Group Industrialisation Strategy for Africa, the Second Climate
Change Action Plan 2016-2020, and the Regional Integration Policy and Strategy for Africa
(RIPoS) 2014-2023. Lastly, the new CSP is fully aligned on the achievement of Guinea’s SDGs.

4.1.4. Based on the first two criteria, the Bank will have a comparative advantage (third
criterion) in improving access to energy, which is the first of the High 5s: Light up and
Power Africa. The Bank will support the development of energy production capacity, the
strengthening of energy transmission and distribution networks, and the improvement of energy
sector governance. Increasing access to electricity will speed up the agricultural transformation
sought by GoG. The process will be piloted based on the New Deal on Energy for Africa aimed
at achieving universal access to energy by 2025 - with access rates of 100% in urban areas and
95% in rural areas.

4.1.5. Consideration of the third selectivity criterion also leads to strategic Bank
support for the development of agricultural and industrial value chains, taking into
account their contribution to the reduction of inequalities, economic transformation and
inclusive growth. Such support will also be aligned on the second of the High 5s (Feed Africa),
highlighting the fact that farmers remain the poorest socioeconomic group. This calls for an
inclusive growth strategy. Farmers represent 66% of the population living below the poverty
line. The agricultural sector, which employs a significant segment of the Guinean population
(52%), is less productive (on average 20% of GDP in 2018) and essentially based on extensive
farming. There is considerable prospects for transforming Guinean agriculture and developing
various segments of the relevant value chains.

4.1.6. Consultations with stakeholders (civil society and private sector), which is the
fourth criterion, led to the selection of rural areas as the strategic focus of the Bank's
operations, taking into account the objective of reducing regional inequalities in the
country. This choice was confirmed by GoG since rural areas are relatively more affected by
poverty (67.7%) than urban areas (35.4%). Mapping of the country's 10 agrohubs led to the
identification of a priority site as an agro-food processing area (APA) based on the following
criteria: (i) high population and consumption density over a 100-km radius; (ii) great potential
to develop the product most imported into the country; (iii) intense connection network between
production and consumption areas; and (iv) the existence of other private investors in the area
(which boosts economies of scale). Based on these criteria, the choice fell on Agrohub D (Boké-
Fria-Télimélé-Gaoual-Koundara) out of the country’s nine agricultural development agrohubs.
The choice of Agrohub D also stems from its comparative advantages in terms of the
11
availability of studies conducted, the development of rail and road transport networks and
telecommunications that offer the possibility of rapid implementation of the APA's activities.

4.1.7. Since available resources would not cover all the financing needs of the
agricultural and industrial value chains, the fifth selectivity criterion (complementarity),
made it possible to choose a relatively advantageous product to reduce the country's food
trade balance deficit. As with all selectivity criteria, selection of the product was also dictated
by the need for complementary with the other partners. Indeed, the World Bank, AFD and the
IsDB have several projects over the next five years that favour APAs. Despite their significant
potential, the industrial and agricultural sectors still play a negligible role in poverty reduction
within the Agrohub D APA. Rice is mainly cultivated in this agrohub, which alone accounts
for 18% of the national cultivated surface area, or 309 528 ha, with a yield of 1.21 t/ha and an
output of 375,616 tons (representing 19% of the national output). No agro-industrial units have
been installed in these areas to process local products. In addition to the rice sector, several
value chains can be developed for this APA, including the processing of cashew nuts, vegetable
products, fruit, livestock products, and even other products selected by the Agricultural
Transformation Project (currently being prepared) to boost youth agricultural entrepreneurship.
These value chains are among the targets of the Bank's Strategy for Agricultural Transformation
in Africa (2016-2025) and its Jobs for Youth in Africa Strategy 2016 - 2025. The location of
the agrohub and the area covered by the APZ will be better specified by the Project Preparation
Facility (PPF) studies.

4.1.8. Lessons from implementing the previous CSP (sixth criterion) made it possible to
adopt two innovations in this new CSP, distinguishing it de facto from the previous ones.
These are an intense focus on inclusion and green growth, as well as an integrated
approach to operations. As indicated above, the new strategy targets the poorest regions and
communities, including women, while protecting their natural environment as well as better
redistribution of income from natural resources. Furthermore, an integrated approach should
federate the various operations as stipulated in the Bank’s Ten-Year Strategy 2013-2022. The
strategy recommends integrated infrastructure (energy, transport, water) that supports value
chains in agriculture and agro-industry, especially in fragile States.

4.2. CSP Objective and Strategic Pillars

4.2.1. Furthermore, an integrated approach should bring together the various sector
interventions as stipulated in the Bank's Ten-Year Strategy for 2013-2022. This objective,
which is aligned on the Bank's High 5s, will contribute to addressing the challenges of youth
unemployment, gender inequality and resilience to climate change - all sources of fragility.
Progress towards this goal requires highly inclusive actions to ensure: (i) power transmission
and distribution; (ii) water management and irrigation development; (iii) the existence of roads
for the evacuation of agricultural and agro-industrial products; (iv) capacity building; and (v)
improvement of financial and sector governance. The entire Guinean population will benefit
from this strategy, which is geared towards socioeconomic transformation and more
specifically targets 993,129 farmers in the Agrohub D region, of which 51.8% women. To
reflect this new policy direction, the CSP (2018-2022) focuses on two pillars: Pillar 1: Improve
access to energy; Pillar 2: Develop agricultural and industrial value chains.

4.2.2. The Bank continues to support structural reforms whose implementation has
enabled the country's eligibility to the initiative "Compact with Africa" in November
2017. This new strategy will pursue the same dynamic with particular emphasis on private
sector support in the energy, agriculture and mining sectors.

12
Pillar 1: Improve Access to Energy

4.2.3. Under this pillar, the Bank seeks to support GoG to increase and diversify energy
production and build a power transmission and distribution network to improve the rural and
urban access level, and to strengthen energy sector governance.

Focus Area 1.1. Improve power transmission and distribution

4.2.4. The integrated nature of interventions will ensure that operations under this first
pillar on energy contribute to the development of the APA. It will include the construction
of power transmission and distribution lines over approximately 500 km from Souapiti. This
network will cover Boké, Fria, Koundara, Gaoual, and Téliméle localities to fuel the activities
of the APA in Agrohub D as well as electrification of the main towns located in neighbouring
districts.

4.2.5. The electrification of the main towns in various municipal councils (“communes”)
tallies with GoG’s programme. It includes the construction in Boké region of 4,978 km of
MV line, 5,712 km of LV line, 155,705 KW of transformers to connect 207,537 new households
by 2025. For the Boké region, this programme provides for an increase in the household
electrification rate from 9.8% in 2014 to 14% in 2020 and 20% in 2022. Preparation of the
project through PPF studies will give an idea of the Bank's contribution toward achieving this
target. These studies will also determine the demand for electricity at the commencement of
APA activities and in neighbouring localities as well as the evolution of such demand. The
National Electricity Improvement Programme in Guinea, designed in January 2017, requires a
strategic partner to finance electrification in the Boké region.

Focus Area 1.2. Improve energy sector governance:

4.2.6. Guinea is in the bottom quintile in terms of getting electricity. It is ranked 159th
/190 countries in Doing Business 2018, representing a 40-spot decline between 2012 and 2018.
Guinea has the lowest score in terms of reliability of supply although its rates are among the
lowest in Africa. To address this situation, the Bank will provide sector budget support to: (i)
strengthen the institutional capacity to raise resources for sustainable and inclusive
development; (ii) improve the business climate; and (iii) improve energy sector governance
based on GAP II guidelines. Reform support operations will cover all institutional, legislative
and regulatory trends so that the supply, quality and regulation of the energy sector do not
hamper the development of APAs.

4.2.7. The Bank will support GoG to review its electricity sub-sector regulatory
framework so as to adapt it to the national and regional context, and make it attractive to
private investors. Accordingly, the Bank will finance the revision of the legal and regulatory
framework for energy regulation, rural electrification and restoration of EDG’s financial
balance. GoG intends to reform the legal and institutional framework to ensure the promotion
of "decentralised" solutions involving the participation of local authorities and the private sector
at rural level, particularly in power generation and distribution activities.

4.2.8. GoG plans to transform the Decentralised Rural Electrification Bureau (BERD)
into the Guinea Rural Electrification Authority (AGER). The Bank will support the drafting
of legal texts on the creation of this new structure and the operationalization of the National
Energy Regulation Agency. The improvement of power subsector governance will enable the
country to progress towards the achievement of the SDG 7 targets on “universal access to
affordable, reliable, and modern energy services” and the High-5 target on universal access to
13
energy by 2025. For rural areas, the access rate will rise from 7% in 2017 to 10% in 2020 and
18% in 2022.

Pillar 2: Develop the Agricultural and Industrial Value Chain

4.2.9. Under this second pillar, the Bank seeks to contribute to the implementation of GoG's
strategy of creating 10 agrohubs nationwide in order to mitigate Guinea’s vulnerability to
external shocks linked to dependence on food imports, and to ensure inclusive socioeconomic
transformation. In this regard, the Bank will also contribute to governance and capacity building
in the agricultural and agro-industry sectors.

Focus Area 2.1.: Develop value chain support infrastructure

4.2.10. Irrigation infrastructure: The strategy entails developing an APA in the Boké
agricultural basin during the 2018-2022 period. The Bank will support GoG in financing
irrigation infrastructure (dams, irrigation farming areas, mud plains, plains, etc.). This will
entail tapping into the watersheds of the region and exploiting underused facilities. The current
PPF study on the development of agrohubs will determine the establishment and technical
characteristics of the various facilities. In addition to the irrigation facilities, it will also entail
endowing the Boké agricultural basin and the surrounding towns targeted by the APA with
infrastructure that can meet their drinking water and sanitation needs. Bank support to the Boké
administrative region will enable the country to move towards achieving the targets of: (i) SDG
2.3 on “doubling agricultural productivity”; (ii) SDG 6.1 on “universal, equitable and affordable
access to drinking water”; and (iii) SDG 12.2 on “rational use of natural resources”. By 2022,
the targets for this Boké APA are: (i) an increase in developed mud plains and irrigated areas
from 6,225 ha in 2015 to 9,200 ha in 2022; (ii) an improvement in productivity per hectare from
1.21 tons to 2.4 tons for rice; and (iii) an increase in the number of agro-industrial enterprises
from 0 to 10.

4.2.11. Road access infrastructure: With regard to opening up the area, the Bank's support
concerns: (i) the construction of rural roads to transport agricultural and agro-industrial inputs
and products; and (ii) the rehabilitation of a regional integration road and railway that will
facilitate the evacuation of APA output, including vegetables, cashew nuts and fruit, to Conakry
Port, and cereals and tubers to the borders of Guinea Bissau and Sierra Leone. Feeder roads
will facilitate the evacuation of products from the APA to market areas nationwide, and also
beyond the borders of the country via Conakry Port and the Boké-Québo regional integration
road. The current PPF study will determine the indicators and targets in terms of reducing
transport costs and travel time. The resources available will be used to develop approximately
800 km of rural roads and rehabilitate 90 km of road on the Boké-Québo segment. The objective
will be to rely on this Boké-Québo road to facilitate and accelerate the export of products from
the Boké APA. It will entail exporting 2,500 tons of cereals to the sub-region annually and
6,200 tons of other food products to Asia and Europe via Conakry Port.

Focus Area 2.2. Improve value chain governance and capacity building

4.2.12. Capacity building: The transformation of the agricultural sector and the emergence
of APAs will involve the use of new technologies and recourse to new skills. The Technologies
for African Agricultural Transformation (TAAT) programme will be one response and will
develop a bold capacity-building action plan to achieve the rapid transformation of agriculture
in Guinea. Support for the improvement of the Guinea label, particularly the quality of products
and their presentation, will facilitate revival of the country's agricultural exports. For GoG and
the Bank, under the TAAT programme, the APAs will ensure: (i) the obligation to guarantee
high yields over large areas bigger than family farms of less than one hectare; and (ii) the
14
adoption, implementation and observance of international standards both for agricultural raw
materials and for products leaving agricultural processing plants. Therefore, it will be essential
to include education, vocational training, apprenticeship, as well as research and development
with the improvement of human health, to ensure the sustainability of the the new activities
promoted within the APA. Under an operation geared towards youth employment, Bank
support will focus particularly on determining courses, curricula and occupations to be
developed, as well as capacity building for existing institutions, in terms of equipment and
premises. The Bank will support the broad dissemination of best practice in: (i) water
management and irrigation development; (ii) productivity improvement; (iii) the quest for
product quality; and (iv) produce conservation, processing and marketing. Based on the PPF
currently under preparation, the Guinean Institute of Agronomic Research will restructure the
research-extension-training system to meet the needs of the APA. The current agricultural
vocational training system will offer technical and commercial courses in order to participate
in the professionalisation of skills required in the APA and satisfy the needs of the Guinean
Agricultural Transformation Support Project - Youth Agricultural Entrepreneurship (PATAG-
EAJ). The direction of the training courses will highlight the viability of investing in the youth
as stated by the Bank Group Strategy for Youth Employment in Africa 2016-2025. At least 500
entrepreneurs will be trained until 2022, of which 90% will be young people aged 15 to 35 (at
least 30% women) in accordance with a curriculum to be specified by PPF studies; 150 SMEs,
50% of which are run by young people comprising 30% women, will be trained in the
implementation of production methods and the development of new ranges of agrifood
products. The Bank's support to the National Institute of Statistics (INS) will improve the
country's capacity to produce baseline and impact data.

4.2.13. Value chain governance: Improvement of the institutional and regulatory framework
of the agricultural sector will render the business environment conducive to the development
of APAs. Support for the structural transformation of Guinean agriculture will be preceded by
the promotion of land tenure security, which is one of the main priorities of the National Plan
for Agricultural Investment and Food and Nutritional Security (PNIASAN 2018-2025). The
objective is to create a favourable framework for the secure and sustainable development of
agricultural resources in order to attract private investment. The adoption of a new land code
and the creation of an Agricultural Development Fund will reduce the time limit for transfer of
ownership from 44 days in 2017 to 34 days in 2020 and 24 days in 2022. It will also guide GoG
with the support of the PATAG Project to develop: (i) the statute of agricultural enterprises; (ii)
social protection for rural communities; (iii) agricultural insurance; and (iv) financing of the
agricultural sector. Furthermore, the Bank will support the National Directorate for Public
Investments (DNIP) to establish a proper system for the identification, design, implementation
and monitoring/evaluation of public investments in order to improve the implementation rate
of the PNDES and the national investment plan in decentralised regions, particularly in APA
Zone D.

4.2.14. Resource mobilisation: PNDES implementation could be thwarted by the emergence

of several endogenous risk factors, mainly the poor collection of internal revenue allocated to
targeted sectors. According to the PNDES, the tax effort in Guinea remains insufficient at below
14% of GDP over the last three years. Hence, the Bank will continue to support GoG in its
effort to raise domestic resources to support the financing of backbone infrastructure for the
country’s development. In this regard, institutional capacity building for financial services will
be conducted in tandem with reforms to broaden the tax base, optimise the exemptions policy
and rationally manage the taxation framework. The Bank will support GoG to increase the share
of the State budget allocated to agriculture from 3% (2017) to 7% (2022), although the Malabo
Resolution (July 2014) commits African governments to allocate at least 10% of the national
budget to agriculture. Similarly, the Bank's support for increasing the tax burden from 13.4%

15
(2017) to 17% (2022) will provide GoG with sufficient resources to improve access to energy
in rural areas and to develop APAs.

4.3. Bank’s Indicative Assistance Programme

4.3.1. The Bank's Strategy in Guinea (2018 - 2022) will comprise 12 operations,
including the flagship project for the Agrohub D APA to be established within the Boké
agricultural basin. The table in Annex 5 presents the Bank’s Indicative Assistance Programme
for Guinea during the five CSP years. The results-based framework in Annex 1 presents the
expected CSP outputs and outcomes in 2020, and at completion in 2022.

4.4. Non-Lending Activity Programme

4.4.1. Non-lending activities will involve advisory services and dialogue based on analytical
work. All these activities will be aligned on the CSP pillars. In collaboration with GoG, the
Bank will conduct economic, sector and analytical work to strengthen dialogue on fragility
factors and policies conducive to a transition to resilience. As previously indicated, particular
emphasis will be laid on internal revenue collection. Accordingly, technical assistance will be
provided to GoG to ensure the success of tax reforms (the terms of reference of the study on
the operational audit of taxation services are presented in Annex 13) and to better negotiate
major contracts, especially in the energy and mining sectors. The African Legal Support Facility
will participate in this capacity building effort, in addition to the current expertise provided by
the Bank in the negotiation of major contracts. Moreover, at GoG’s request, the Bank will
support a study that will lead to the development of a strategy for strengthening linkages
between the mining sector and the rest of the Guinean economy (see Annex 14). This study will
bring together the material elements that will make it possible to consider the local
transformation of mining products including bauxite in the medium term by taking advantage
of the potential of electricity generation in the country.

4.4.2. Various committees and focal points appointed by GoG will participate actively
in developing the knowledge products designed by the Bank. This will strengthen the
analytical capability of the State and facilitate ownership of study findings. Specific activities
to strengthen GoG's capacity to conduct studies are envisaged under the PPF studies supervised
by the Bank.

4.5. CSP Financing

4.5.1. Financing of CSP 2018-2022 will benefit from the remaining cycle of ADF-14
(2018-2019) and the full cycle of ADF-15 (2020-2022). UA 58.09 million from ADF-14
resources (PBA, TSF and Regional Funds) will be committed in 2018-2019. Additional
amounts should be available to reach the indicative budget of UA 228.09 million for the entire
CSP 2018-2022 period. This amount comprises UA 74.6 million from the ADF, UA 30 million
from the TSF, UA 23.59 million from the Regional Funds and UA 100 million from the AfDB
private sector window. In addition to ADF resources, the Bank will seek to mobilise other
sources of funding (Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Initiative - RWSSI, African Water
Facility - AWF, the Climate Funds and co-financing with other TFPs).

4.5.2. The CSP could also be financed with ADB Window and Africa50 resources for
investment in the private sector. However, the country does not yet qualify for non-
concessional AfDB loans to the public sector. Accordingly, the Bank will continue dialogue
with GoG on the reforms to be implemented with a view to gaining access to the ADB Window.
The Bank's Resource Mobilization and Partnerships Department (FIRM) will share successful
Asian agribusiness investment experiences in West Africa.

16
4.5.3. There are several potential areas of collaboration with other development
partners. This will entail leveraging co-financing opportunities, especially in the agriculture
(World Bank, FAO, IFAD, UNDP, IsDB), energy (EU, World Bank, Chinese Cooperation and
IsDB), transport (EU, IsDB, World Bank), environment (EU, KFW) and governance sectors
(AFD, EU and World Bank). Furthermore, collaboration with local think tanks will highlight
the Bank’s commitment to increase the conduct of analytical work and the production of
knowledge on the country. Annex 5 presents the areas of intervention of the other development
partners.

4.6. Monitoring and Evaluation of Bank Group Operations

4.6.1. Close monitoring of project implementation by the Bank's country office and
sector ministries upon completion of the CSP (2012-2016/2017) significantly enhanced the
Bank's overall portfolio performance. However, given the context of fragility and the
government's weak human resource capacity, there are persistent project implementation
problems, which should serve as a lesson in the establishment of CSP monitoring/evaluation
mechanisms. Accordingly, to reduce project implementation delays, the Bank will ensure the
application of Directive DP 02/2015 through recourse to advance contracting, preliminary
appointment of key project management staff and use of the PPF, among others.

4.6.2. A results framework (Annex 1) is defined in coordination with the authorities of

Guinea to ensure alignment on PNDES indicators, programme budgets and Bank operations
over the 2018-2022 period. This results framework takes into account the country’s
development objectives, problems hampering the attainment of objectives, the operational
priorities identified under the two pillars, and the outcomes and outputs expected at mid-term
and by 2022. A mid-term report will be prepared in 2020 and a completion report in 2022.

4.7. Country Dialogue

4.7.1. Dialogue will be maintained with GoG to improve portfolio quality and with partners
to ensure compliance with national procedures as well as international norms and standards.

4.7.2. The Bank will continue the dialogue on improving the business climate to
stimulate private investment in the agricultural and energy sectors. This dialogue will place
particular emphasis on reforms aimed at: (i) improving access to energy; (ii) developing APAs;
(iii) improving sector governance; (iv) mobilising domestic resources; (v) ensuring debt
management; and (iv) improving the business climate.

4.7.3. The Bank, in synergy with other TFPs, is monitoring on a monthly basis the
implementation of the structural reforms. These reforms will allow the country to benefit
from the resources of "Compact with Africa" initiative, dedicated to the promotion of
sustainable private sector investment.

4.8. Risks and Mitigation Measures

Political Risk
Low probability: Given the existence of High-impact mitigation measures: The Bank will continue
certain pockets of fragility, the organisation dialogue with GoG and donors, including specialised
of legislative (2018) and presidential (2020) institutions, to align its programme of interventions on socio-
elections may give rise to uncontrollable political developments and resilience in the country. An
socio-political upheaval. evaluation will be conducted during the mid-term review in
2020 to redirect AfDB support, if necessary, towards
operations with a greater impact on improving the quality of
life of Guineans.
Economic Risks
17
High probability: The private sector may
not understand the benefits associated with
Bank-financed public investments under
Pillar 2: Develop Agricultural and
Industrial Value Chains.
Average probability: Guinea's economy
could be affected by fluctuations in the
prices of mining products on the
international market.
Average probability: Guinean agriculture,
which is the backbone of Pillar 2 of this
strategy, remains particularly vulnerable to
rainfall conditions. Moreover, despite the
country's significant irrigation potential,
irrigation is barely developed.
Average probability: Guinea could face an
epidemic or health crisis.
Public Sector Management Risk
Average probability: Guinea could continue
to borrow on domestic and foreign markets
because the IMF and World Bank debt
sustainability analysis does not give the
country access to enough non-concessional
resources to fund its PNDES (2016-2022).
Project Management Risk
Average probability: Slow project
implementation could limit the achievement
of expected results.
High-impact mitigation measure: Speed up dialogue with
the country to reform the land tenure system, a measure that
is crucial to the emergence of agro-industrial processing
areas and markets. Projects under Pillar 2 will have a major
component on sector governance.
High-impact mitigation measure: In addition to budget
management support, the Bank will continue to support the
country’s economic diversification and the implementation
of key structural reforms to strengthen the economy's
resilience to commodity price fluctuations.
High-impact mitigation measure: As climate change is a
crosscutting issue, the Bank will rely on collaboration with a
variety of stakeholders such as the FAO and IFAD, which
have operations for building community resilience. The Bank
will also support the wide dissemination of best practice in
water management and irrigation development.
Health Risk
Low-impact mitigation measure: Strengthen the prevention,
adaptation and resilience capacity of the health system. Step
up dialogue with the State so that it can make progress on the
commitments made by African governments in Abuja in
2011 to allocate 15% of national budgets to health.
High-impact mitigation measure: Intensify dialogue with
the IMF, the World Bank and GoG so that Guinea and the
IMF can continue the ECF programme (2017-2019) without
compromising the funding of growth. The Bank will continue
its capacity-building activities on public finance
management. It will lay particular emphasis on building
domestic revenue collection capacity.
High-impact mitigation measure: The Government will
take measures with the Bank, including quarterly portfolio
review meetings, to reduce any administrative difficulties
that could delay project implementation.

5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

5.1. PNDES guidelines (2012-2018) are designed to tackle the challenge of Guinea’s
fragility and its vulnerability to internal and external shocks. Internal vulnerability mainly
stems from poverty and election-related tensions. Exogenous shocks stem from the country’s
dependence on food imports and on the export of mining products whose prices are highly
volatile.

5.2. The structural transformation of productive sectors that have high growth
potential and those that are more likely to create jobs for youths and women will
substantially improve the living conditions of Guineans. The country’s main strategy under
PNIASAN 2018 - 2025 is the establishment of agrohubs accompanied by improved energy
supply. GoG plans to initiate institutional reforms that foster improvement of the business
environment and create ideal conditions for inclusive growth, private sector development and
sustainable environmental management.

18
5.3. Accordingly, the AfDB's intervention strategy in Guinea for 2018-2022 focuses
on two pillars: (i) Improve access to energy; and (ii) Develop agricultural and industrial
value chains. Both pillars address crosscutting challenges related to governance, capacity
building, employment, gender and climate change. Accordingly, GoG and the Bank have
agreed to combine their efforts to create favourable conditions for the emergence of APAs to
guarantee: (i) access to electricity; (ii) water management; (iii) transportation of agricultural
produce; and (iv) governance. The Bank’s CSP 2018-2022 for Guinea also proposes the
promotion of both inclusive and green growth. Special emphasis will also be laid on internal
revenue collection.

5.4. The Boards of Directors are invited to review and approve the Bank's CSP 2018-2022
for Guinea.

19
Annex 1: CSP 2018-2022 Results Monitoring Matrix

Country’s Constraints hindering OUTCOMES AT MID- OUTPUTS AT MID-TERM FINAL OUTCOMES FINAL AfDB intervention
Development achievement of country’s TERM (expected by (expected by 2020) (expected by 2022) OUTPUTS during CSP period
Objectives development objectives 2020) (expected by (ongoing and
(PNDES) 2022) proposed)
PILLAR I - IMPROVE ENERGY ACCESS
Intervention Area 1: Power Transmission and Distribution Ongoing Projects
Promote a sustainable - Inadequate development - Electricity access - Available power rises from - In 2022, the energy - Available PRERE.2
energy development of the energy potential improves from 2017 to 458 MW in 2016 to 800 MW access rate is: 50% power - CLSG-WAPP
model mainly based 2020 : 29% to 35% in 2020 (national), 18% (rural), increases to 1
on social and regional - Insufficient - CLSG-Rural
distribution/transmission (national),7% to 10% - 6 100 km of lines 65% (urban), 20% (APA) GW in 2022 Electrification
equity, renewable (rural), 54.1% to 60
energies and infrastructure constructed - Energy exported rises - 10 690 km of Component
(urban), and 9.8% to from 0 in 2017 to 1 492.7 lines
environmental 14% (APA) - 80 000 KW of transformers - (OMVG) Energy
management installed GWh in 2022 constructed Project
- 100 000 new households - 207 537 new households - 155 705 KW of - 225 Kw Guinea-Mali
connected in 2020. - 500 direct jobs and 1 500
indirect jobs created in 2020 connected in 2022. transformers Interconnection
installed Project
- 3 000 jobs New Projects
created in 2022
- Rural and Urban
Intervention Area 1.2: Energy Sector Governance Energy Electrification
Project (Phase 1) in
- Weak private sector - From 2016 to 2022,the - National Energy Regulatory - Losses are: 20% - The legal and 2020
involvement in power loss rate drops from Agency is operational. (commercial); 18% regulatory
generation 37.1% to 27% (technical). framework on - Rural and Urban
- Guinean Rural
(commercial); from 22% energy Energy Electrification
- Age/malfunctioning of Electrification Agency is - 150th ranking (‘getting Project (Phase 2) in
distribution/transmission in 2016 to 18% established. Legal and electricity’). regulation is
(technical) implemented. 2022
grid regulatory framework on - Private sector share in
- Share of private sector in energy regulation is revised. - 5 000 metres - Sector Governance
- Poor technical and power generation is 40%.
power generation up installed. Support Project
commercial - The illegal connection
from 31% in 2016 to (2018).
performance rate is 4%. - 50 substations
40% in 2020 rehabilitated. - Budget Support
- The illegal power Programme (2021).
- Consumption
connection rate drops per capita rises - Private Sector Energy
from 11% in 2017 to 7% from 137 KWh Project (2020).
in 2020 in 2016 to 280
in 2022.
-

I

Improve value-chain
oriented infrastructure Low access to key
and governance for infrastructure, low access
inclusive and
to energy, weak water
sustainable
management in power
development generation, low
agricultural productivity
and lack of access roads.
- Governance not
conducive to the
development of secure
and safe production
potential, weak
mobilisation of
resources for
development, weak
capacity of developers,
mainly young
developers.
PILLAR II – DEVELOP AGRICULTURAL AND INDUSTRIAL VALUE CHAINS
Intervention Area 2.1: Value chain development infrastructure
- Rice yields in APA up
from 1.21 t/ha to 2.4 t/ha.
- The contribution of
agribusiness to GDP
rises from 1.8% to 3%. 2
500 jobs created: 30%
for women and 65% for
young people.
- Rural Access Index up
from 10% in 2017 to
20% in 2023 in Boké
Intervention Area 2.2: Governance and capacity building in value chains
- 100 trained youths are
self-employed.
- Time required to transfer
ownership reduced from
44 days in 2017 to 34
days in 2020.
- 2500 tons/yr. of cereals
exported in ECOWAS
- The share of agriculture
in the budget rises from
3% (2017) to 5% (2020)
- DB Paying tax : From
182nd (2018) to 172nd
rank (2020)
- The tax ratio rises from
13.4% (2017) to 15%
(2020).
Ongoing Projects
- 1 500 ha of wetlands and - Rice yield in the APA is - 2 295 ha of -PAPEGM
plains developed. 4 t/ha. wetlands and
-PARCA-IPM
- 1 agri-park delivered. - Contribution of plains
-PPF-PATAG-EAJ
agribusiness to GDP is developed.
- 1 agri-park supplied with -PARF-MRU
electricity. 5%. - 1 agri-park
operational. -PARF-MRU
- From 0 to 10 enterprises in - 5 000 jobs created: 30%
supplementary loan
APA. for women and 65% for - 50 agribusiness
youths. enterprises - Coyah-Farmoriah-
- 300 km of rural feeder roads established. Pamelap Sierra Leone
improved. - Rural Access Index rises
Border Road Project
to 30% in Boké - 800 km of rural
- 40 km of asphalted road. roads improved. New Projects
- 90 km of roads - Agricultural
improved. Transformation and
Youth Agricultural
Entrepreneurship
- 200 entrepreneurs trained - 200 trained young - New Land Law Support Project
(60% women and 90% women are self- applied (2018).
youths). employed in 150 SME - Agricultural - Agro-food Zone
- 70 SME (50% headed by (30% headed by women) Guarantee Fund Development Project
youths and 30% by women) - Time required to transfer operational (Phase 1, 2019) and
are trained. ownership drops from 44 Phase 2, 2021).
- Agricultural
- Training of Ministry officials days in 2017 to 24 in Development - Construction of Boké-
2022 Québo Road (2019).
(50) responsible for Fund
agriculture and industry. - 7 500 tonnes/yr. of operational. - Change Adaptation
- The taxpayer database is cereals exported in - A rational Programme
unified and broadened. ECOWAS. cadastral (PIDDAC/BN-2019).
- The share of agriculture management - Agro-food Processing
in the budget rises from mechanism is Industries Project
3% (2017) to 7% (2022). established and (Private Sector
- DB Paying tax: 162nd operational. Window 2020).
rank in 2022. - Functional audit of
- The tax ratio increases tax authorities.
from 13.4% (2017) to
17% (2022)
II
Annex 2: Guinea-Indicative Lending Programme for AfDB Operations (2018-2022) in UA million
Operation Name Year AfDB Private ADF TSF RR. Others Total
Pillar 1. Energy Access Improvement Support 50.00 43.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 103.00
Sector Governance Support Project 2018 3.00 3.00
Rural and Urban Electrification Energy Project (Phase 1) 2020 15.00 5.00 20.00
Private Sector Energy Project 2020 50.00 50.00
Budget Support Programme 2021 10.00 10.00
Rural and Urban Electrification Energy Project (Phase 2) 2022 15.00 5.00 20.00
Pillar 2. Agricultural and Industrial Value Chain Development Support 50.00 31.50 20.00 23.59 19.46 144.55
Construction of Boké-Québo Road with rural feeder road component for the transportation of
2018 5.00 5.00 15.34 25.34
agricultural products
Youth Agricultural Entrepreneurship Support Project 2018 5.00 2.50 7.50
PPF – Agricultural Processing Areas Development Project 2018 1.00 1.00
2018 0.50 2.50 8.25 19.46 30.71
Niger Basin Integrated Development and Climate Change Adaptation Programme (PIDACC/NB)
Agro-food Processing Zone Development Project (Phase 1) 2019 5.00 5.00 10.00
Agro-food Processing Zone Development Project (Phase 2) 2021 15.00 5.00 20.00
Agricultural Processing Industries Project- Private sector Window 2021 50.00 50.00
Total 100.00 74.50 30.00 23.59 19.46 247.55

Breakdown by Source of Financing (UA Million – 2018 - 2022)

ADF Years ADF TSF NTF Regional Funds AfDB Private Sector Others Total
ADF 14 – 2017-2019 19.50 15.00 0.00 23.59 0.00 19.46 77.55
ADF 15 – 2020-2022 55.00 15.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0.00 170.00
TOTAL 74.50 30.00 0.00 23.59 100.00 19.46 247.55

III
Annex 3: Status of Bank’s Portfolio in Guinea as at 30 June 2018
Project
Signature Effectiveness Closing Project Age Disbursement
Approval Date Amounts
Date Date Date (Years) Rate.
(UA)
I. National Public Sector Projects 2.9 32 060 479 65.6%
Energy 4.7 11 000 000 80.1%
Conakry Electricity Network 9/11/2013 11/24/2013 5/20/2014 12/31/2018 4.7 4 690 000 94.8%
Rehabilitation and Extension Project 2 (PREREC.2) 9/11/2013 11/24/2013 11/24/2013 12/31/2018 4.7 6 310 000 69.2%
Governance 2.2 17 670 479 66.3%
Economic Planning and Mining Governance Support Project (PAPGEM) 7/10/2013 9/10/2013 9/10/2013 9/29/2018 4.9 11 380 000 87.7%
Balance of Payments Improvement Project 2/18/2016 3/24/2016 3/24/2016 6/30/2018 2.3 290 479 59.8%
7/15/2016 7/19/2016 7/19/2016 6/30/2020 1.9 4 000 000 37.6%
Administrative Capacity Building Support Project (PARCA-GPI)
11/4/2016 6/21/2017 6/21/2017 6/30/2020 1.6 2 000 000 3.2%
Finance 1.2 2 400 000 12.4%
Financial Sector Modernisation Support Project (PAMSFI) 3/15/2017 6/22/2017 6/22/2017 6/30/2020 1.2 2 400 000 12.4%
Agriculture 1.8 990 000 20.2%
PPF Guinean Agricultural Transformation Support Project – Youth
8/3/2016 10/18/2016 10/18/2016 9/30/2018 1.8 990 000 20.2%
Entrepreneurship Component (PATAG-EAJ)
II. Multinational Public Sector Projects 2.7 181 727 538 9.9%
Energy 3.1 100 450 000 10.7%
11/6/2013 11/24/2013 11/24/2013 10/31/2020 4.6 834 000 0.7%
Côte d’Ivoire – Liberia – Sierra Leone – Guinea (CLSG) Interconnection Project
11/6/2013 11/24/2013 1/30/2015 10/31/2020 4.6 28 910 000 6.8%
CLSG-WAPP 11/6/2013 11/24/2013 11/24/2013 10/31/2020 4.6 781 000 63.2%
CLSG-Rural Electrification Project 11/6/2013 11/24/2013 11/24/2013 10/31/2020 4.6 10 275 000 10.9%
The Gambia River Basin Development Organisation Energy Project (OMVG) 9/30/2015 12/14/2015 9/6/2016 12/31/2020 2.7 46 250 000 15.4%
225 kV Guinea-Mali Electricity Interconnection Project 12/13/2017 1/11/2018 1/11/2018 12/31/2021 0.5 13 400 000 0.0%
Transport 2.2 71 453 000 10.2%
12/18/2014 2/12/2015 6/14/2017 30.06.2020 3.5 14 542 000 20.1%
Mano River Union Road Development and Transport Facilitation Programme
12/18/2014 2/12/2015 6/14/2017 30.06.2020 3.5 8 857 000 20.7%
Supplementary Loan - Road Improvement and Facilitation Programme in the
6/3/2015 5/12/2016 6/14/2017 6/30/2020 3.0 9 774 000 20.0%
Mano River Union
10/25/2017 10/31/2017 10/31/2017 12/31/2022 0.6 17 060 000 0.0%
Coyah-Farmoriah-Pamelap-Sierra Leone Border Road
10/25/2017 10/31/2017 12/31/2022 0.6 21 220 000 0.0%
Social 2.6 9 824 538 0.3%
10/21/2015 12/18/2015 12/18/2015 12/31/2019 2.6 9 000 000 0.3%
Post-Ebola Social Investment and Rehabilitation Fund (PERSIF) Project
10/21/2015 12/18/2015 12/18/2015 12/31/2019 2.6 824 538 0.0%
Total Public Sector Projects 2.8 213 788 017 18.27%
Total Effective Public Sector Projects 213 788 017 18.27%
III. Private Sector Projects 0.5 69 161 554 0.0%
Mines 0.5 69 161 554 0
Boke Mine Rail and Port Project 12/6/2017 4/30/2020 0.5 69 161 554 0
Grand Total -Commitments 2.7 282 949 572 13.81%

IV
Annex 4: Portfolio Performance Improvement Plan (Revised, June 2018)
Identified Problems
Establishment of teams for project management in
Slowness in the initiation of
AfDB priority intervention areas with clear status
projects.
and performance-based contracts.
Insufficient comprehensive
and detailed studies during
the formulation process of
certain projects.
Significant delays in
mobilizing national
counterpart funds.
Poor project monitoring
and evaluation mechanism
by government structures
(BSD, DNIP and ACGP).
Lack of M & E software
and resources (financial and
logistical) for some projects
to monitor their
interventions.
Delay in the development
of the procedures manual.
Responsible
Required Measures Results Indicators Deadline
Entity
Quality at entry
MPDE / MEF /
Projects begin operations in accordance The staff is recruited when the
Sectorial Min. / Dec. 2018
with established schedules. project enters into force.
COGN
The projects to be supported by
 Drafting of complete and detailed studies. Immediate.
Quality studies are available for planned the Bank are evaluated on the MPDE / BSD /
 Achievement of quality control measures for projects that are in the pipeline. basis of available sectoral ACGP
For all new
conducted studies operations.
studies deemed satisfactory.
Institutional issues, monitoring and coordination
Increase in new projects using waivers or
For new operations, use the waiver of national
non-use (on the basis of the Bank Projects less dependent on
counterpart funds as much as possible. Envisage COGN / TM Feb. 2019
Group's Eligible Funding Expenditure national counterpart funds.
other non-financial operations.
Policy dated 19 March 2008).
For the active operations concerned; revisit the
time required and budget necessary to achieve the Share of active operations
set objectives. If necessary, propose a revision of Reduction of delays in project requiring extension and / or 15%
COGN / TM
the list of goods, works and services planned on the implementation. suffering from national Dec. 2018
national counterpart, taking into account the cash counterparty issues
flow at the national level.
Operational monitoring system for A monitoring mechanism by
Implementation of operational project monitoring BSD / DNIP /
projects by the beneficiary structures is government structures is Dec. 2018
by government structures (BSD, DNIP and ACGP) ACGP / PMU
set up. operational
A monitoring and evaluation software
Acquisition of software in Monitoring and
including training is acquired, training in
Evaluation, including training on its use and the Monitoring software is
the use of this software is achieved, and COGN / TM /
endowment of the project in means (logistic and operational, and several Dec. 2018
means (logistics and financial) are PMU
financial) to ensure the follow-up of field missions are carried out.
provided to the project to carry out
interventions.
monitoring missions.
Immediate.
Recruitment of the consultant for the development
The consultant is recruited. The manual is available. GOV For all new
of the procedures manual.
operations.
V

Identified Problems
Inconsistent production of
reports
Slowness in the
procurement process.
Late implementation of
management tools.
Weak command of Bank
rules and procedures in
fiduciary matters
Delayed processing of
Request for withdrawal of
funds (DRF)
Low quality and delay in
submitting Supporting
Documents
Delay in transmitting audit
reports
Responsible
Required Measures Results Indicators Deadline
Entity
Number of quarterly and annual
Quarterly and annual reports are
reports produced in due time
Timely production of reports (quarterly and yearly) produced in due time and disseminated
and disseminated to M & E experts
and their dissemination to the monitoring structures to the government structures (BSD, Immediate.
government structures (BSD, from PMUs.
(BSD, DNIP and ACGP) DNIP and ACGP) in charge of Project
DNIP and ACGP) in charge of
Monitoring.
project monitoring.
Fiduciary management
Urge on the reform on the issue of duplicated no-
objection and take into account the reservations of
Reduced processing times. The reform is adopted. GOV Immediate.
the mission on the review report of the procurement
of the Bank
The project acquires all the management The software and the Immediate.
Recruit the consultants and acquire the tools before
tools and recruits the consultant for the procedures manual are AfDB / GOV For all new
starting the project.
development of the manual. available. operations.
Immediate.
Continuous capacity building of project teams. Mastery of procedures and directives. Quality of documents submitted AfDB For all new
operations.
Reduce the time required to process requests for
Process is accelerated. Deadlines respected. TM Immediate.
funds
Transmit in a timely manner supporting documents Timely transmission of supporting
Deadlines respected and
in accordance with the Bank's rules and procedures documents and the quality of documents PMU Immediate.
Performance achieved.
and Reinforce internal control is improved.
Invite PMUs to prepare and submit audit reports by Audit reports for the year are available
Audit report transmitted. GOV Immediate.
the time required. before the end of June of the next year.
VI
Annex 5: Sectors of Intervention of Main TFPs (2017)

Multilateral Bilateral

United States

Netherlands
Germany

Belgium
BADEA

Sweden
France

China

Japan
OFID

AfDB

India
UNO

IsDB

AFD

Italy
IMF

WB

EU
Transport X X X X X X X X X X X
Health X X X X X X X X X X X X X
Agriculture X X X X X X X X X X X X X
Governance X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
Education X X X X X X X X X X X X
Environment X X X X X
Social Protection X X X X X
Water and Sanitation X X X X X X X X X
Energy X X X X X X X X X X
Post and Telecommunications X X
Private Sector X X X X X X X X

VII
Annex 6 : Guinea – Note on Fragility

Context: Guinea is a country characterised by wide economic, climatic, geographic and social
diversity. Its vast agricultural, mining and water resource potential makes it the geological
bedrock and water tower of West Africa.

Since Guinea gained independence, successive governments have made efforts to guarantee
better living conditions for the people, unfortunately without success. Faced with this situation
marked by contested governance, the country was exposed to many drivers of fragility in its
different forms. However, having successfully joined the concert of nations with political
legitimacy, Guinea is now in a position to gradually promote its economic, social and
environmental resilience in order to fight social, regional and spatial inequalities. According to
the 2017 Fund for Peace report, the country, which was ranked 10th (out of 178 countries) among
the world’s most fragile countries, is now ranked 12th.

Political drivers of fragility: While continuing dialogue between the different political actors
in Guinea has created relative stability in the country, some active pockets of fragility remain
and present risks that could undermine the entire democratic process already covered by the
country to build political resistance. Polarisation of the political system around ethnic groups,
resorting to mass demonstrations and movements to express grievances, weak capacity of
electoral institutions, political violence especially in the electoral period, and poor institutional
governance are all drivers of fragility that Guinea must address.

Institutional factors: Despite efforts made, governance capacity remains weak. The weak
capacity is revealed suddenly when society faces stress, such as the preparation and holding of
elections or the occurrence of disasters like the Ebola virus disease outbreak. The weakness of
electoral institutions reduces the population’s confidence in these institutions. Furthermore, the
low level of transparency and high level of corruption weaken the efficiency and legitimacy of
institutions. The trend of the Corruption Perceptions Index shows that, despite some slight
improvements over the past five years, the perception of corruption remained virtually
unchanged over the 2013-2017 period. Guinea is ranked 148th out of 180 countries with an
average score of 25 compared to the regional average of 34. Similarly, the administration is
faced with capacity crises preventing the provision of adequate services, both in terms of supply
and quality. One of the drivers of fragility is the poor implementation of legal texts, mechanisms
and procedures. The weak capacity of judicial personnel and officials responsible for mobilising
public resources and project implementation are also worth noting. Guinea is also affected by
the suspension of political dialogue and ongoing divergences among political actors in the
management of the country’s affairs. Social cohesion has also been undermined, which is
worsened by the tendency to manipulate ethnic issue for access to power and wealth
distribution. Furthermore, geographic and ethnic diversity, rather than being an economic asset
has become a source of tension between those who have more resources and the less well-off
or disadvantaged. Exclusion or the perception that some people have of being excluded,
heightens friction. This is compounded by the security situation that has been fragile for a long
time, linked among others to the weak capacity of the defense and security forces (DSF) that
prevents them from efficiently performing their duties, unpunished violence and abuse over
several years, and weaknesses affecting the rule of law. Finally, a certain lack of public spirit
has been observed, particularly regarding respect for and management of public property, use
and enforcement of justice (some individuals tend to mete out justice themselves), payment of
taxes and duties, effective management and use of public services in general, and basic social
services in particular.

VIII
Despite this pressure on institutions, Guinea could tap into its sources of resilience to address
its fragility. The entry points for this will be: (i) the population’s strong sense of Guinean
identity; (ii) interethnic marriages to temper ethnocentric forces; (iii) sub-regional stability; (iv)
population migration; and (v) the collective efforts of civil society and entrepreneurs to maintain
peace and social cohesion.

Economic drivers of fragility: Despite its enormous wealth, Guinea remains one of the world’s
poorest countries and this situation continues to place the country at the centre of the fragility
lens. The Guinean economy had begun a timid recovery in 2010 after three decades of political
instability. However, this recovery was threatened in 2014 and 2015 following the Ebola virus
disease outbreak and falling mineral prices on the global market. In the wake of this economic
turbulence, growth reached 10.5% in 2016 and 8.2% the following year. This rebound was
mostly due to increased mining production, higher agricultural yields and improved power
generation. However, despite its relative stability, inflation climbed steadily from 7.3% in 2015
to 9.5% in 2017. Notwithstanding this economic performance welcomed by donors, Guinea’s
economic structure is affected by the following drivers of fragility: (i) low level of economic
inclusion; (ii) economic activity mainly confined to the main towns; (iii) poor performance of
growth-bearing sectors; (iv) an under-exploited mining sector that is slow in generating
resources; (v) a mainly subsistence agricultural sector; (vi) lack of adequate infrastructure
(energy and transport) to attract foreign direct investment; (vii) industrial development that is
disconnected from the agricultural and mining sectors; (viii) weak institutional governance to
support private sector development; and (ix) a business climate tainted by the perception of
corruption. Faced with this complex economic pressure, Guinea has significant natural potential
to help it emerge from the situation of fragility and embark on the path to resilience. Avenues
should be explored to ensure a successful shift from subsistence agriculture to agribusiness
followed by the establishment of agribusiness processing units, the widespread industrial
production of mines to move forward from artisanal production, thereby boosting the
development of the necessary infrastructure to transport minerals to the coast.

Social factors of fragility: Recent statistics on Guinea clearly show that there is a long path
ahead before the country attains the sustainable development goals. In the area of human
development, the country dropped from 173rd rank in 2013 to 182nd in 2015 and 183rd in 2016.
This decline was rendered even more fragile by strong demographic pressure, rapid, strong and
uncontrolled urbanisation of the territory, and the social and economic marginalisation of
women and young people. The combination of these factors has widened the social divide and
returned the vulnerable social category horizontally towards a sense of exclusion from
economic opportunities, political affairs and access to basic infrastructure. This social exclusion
is compounded by a high level of monetary poverty that is steadily deepening, rising from 53%
to 55.2% between 2007 and 2012. In addition to these structural challenges, the social sectors
also face a shortage of qualified personnel able to provide the population with high quality
services. The social protection system is embryonic. Overall, social pressure on Guinea could
be alleviated by sources of resilience such as major investments in education, health, water,
electricity, regional and urban development, by building the capacity of civil society.

Environmental drivers of fragility: human survival activities are the cause of environmental
pressures due to illicit withdrawals, unsustainable production methods or release of pollutants.

Weak sanitation infrastructure for the drainage of storm water, wastewater and excrement
contributes to environmental degradation, precipitating the emergence of diseases. The PNDES
assesses access to the most appropriate method of excreta disposal at 21%, with 13% of the
population practising open defecation. The non-existence of urban waste treatment represents a

IX
real problem, especially in Conakry. Average waste production in rural areas is 0,606
kg/day/inhabitant. The collection rate, which was estimated at 80% in the 1993-1995 period,
has fallen steadily in recent years. Many uncontrolled dumps have been created in
neighbourhoods and waste is discharged into storm-water channels, rivers and at the edge of
the sea. Industrial, hospital and commercial waste is very badly managed and mixed with
household waste. Furthermore, hospitals do not have any prior incineration system.

Water resources are also threatened by deforestation, bush fires, pastoral and agricultural
nomadism, baked brick manufacturing, carbonisation and small-scale gold mining. The bad
practices of bush fires, overgrazing in certain areas of the country, uncontrolled logging, land
clearing, deforestation and inappropriate farming systems also result in forest degradation. Such
degradation is becoming increasingly worrisome because of the rate of loss of forest areas,
deterioration of water quality due to water erosion and the sharp drop in the fertility of
agricultural land, which affects crop yields.

The exploitation of mining resources has a negative impact on natural resource conservation, in
particular on forest and plant cover, water and soil resources, until water resources are depleted.
If the present trend is not reversed, Guinea could seriously jeopardise the water balance to the
detriment of present and future generations in view of the damage and current risks.

X
 Annex 7: Guinea-Gender Analysis

Introduction

The African Development Bank considers gender mainstreaming as one of the approaches for
achieving inclusive growth and development. This is demonstrated by the fact that the gender
dimension is crosscutting in all policy and strategy documents, in particular the Bank’s 2013-
2022 Long-Term Strategy, designed around the vision ‘ AfDB at the Centre of Africa’s
Transformation’, in which gender is an area of special interest. The gender dimension is also at the
centre of the High 5s: ‘Light up and Power Africa, Feed Africa, Industrialise Africa, Integrate
Africa, Improve the quality of life for the people of Africa’. To operationalise this gender
mainstreaming approach in the Bank’s policies, strategies and operations, the Country Strategy
Paper (CSP) is one point of entry. This note on gender mainstreaming in the CSP (2018-2022) for
Guinea considers gender globally, then in the CSP Pillars. Next, it presents a gender analysis in
other crosscutting sectors as well as an operationalization plan for the recommendations proposed
to mainstream gender in the Bank’s operations throughout the CSP implementation period.

1. Overall Gender Analysis

With a gender index of 0.439 (OECD SIGI Index), Guinea is one of eight countries (78 out of
86) with the widest gender gaps in the non-OECD space. Guinea is also considered one of the
ten African countries with the widest gender disparities. The national gender context in Guinea
remains strongly influenced by socio-cultural constraints and social standards, making it
difficult to apply the legal framework and implement measures to promote gender equality.
Indeed, the country has a valuable and extensive body of law to protect and promote women’s
rights, for example the Penal Code, the Code of Criminal Procedure, the Child Code, the Law
on reproductive health outlawing the practice of female genital mutilation (or excision) and its
implementing texts, the joint decree outlawing female genital mutilation in Guinea, etc.
However, there is little enforcement in Guinea of these legal texts protecting and promoting
women’s rights. This is linked to the juxtaposition of legal orders (religious, customary and
modern) and the inaccessibility of courts in rural areas, among others. This fuels sexist attitudes
and practices, strengthens practices that harm women/girls, hampers initiatives aimed at
accelerating the effective achievement of gender equality and maintains acceptance of gender
inequalities by women themselves.

2. Gender Analysis in the Pillars of the CSP, 2018-2022

2.1 Gender and Energy Access in Guinea

Overall energy consumption per capita is slow regardless of gender at about 500 koe (kilo oil
equivalent). Women’s specific situation is characterised by a drop in connections to the power
grid and the widespread use of charcoal as a source of energy. In rural areas, women and men
are affected differently by the challenges linked to access to modern energy sources. In the
absence of accessible energy sources and innovative practices, fuel wood and charcoal remain
dominant, which affects women most in cooking meals (as mothers or family helpers), exposing
them to highly toxic fumes from cooking wood. Similarly, the search for fuel wood at ever-
increasing distances from the collection areas, in addition to being costly in terms of time,
increases the risk of women’s exposure to gender-based violence in rural areas.

This situation has a socioeconomic impact and affects gender inequalities because, apart from
energy, women are involved in carrying out heavy and repetitive tasks using only their muscular
strength. They spend their time collecting fuel wood, grinding cereals, fetching water, working

XI
in the fields, preparing meals, etc. These tasks are not remunerated and help to widen the
economic imbalance between men and women’s activities in society. The burden of women’s
tasks leads to health problems in a context where meeting the population’s health needs remains
a minor concern. The lack of time and facilitation services for women’s activities results in their
exclusion from local decision-making spheres and impedes the development of income-
generating activities.

2.2 Gender and Agricultural Value Chain Development

According to the National Gender Policy document as revised in 2017, women face several
constraints in the agricultural sector: lack of investments in agricultural production activities;
lack of access to productive resources (land, inputs, modern equipment, technologies, training,
working tools, markets…); poor gender mainstreaming in the appraisal of agriculture-related
development projects and insufficient technologies/techniques for the production, marketing
and processing of agricultural and para-agricultural products. This is compounded by socio-
cultural constraints, weak structuring of women’s groups and their lack of access to economic
opportunities and financing structures (banks and microfinance institutions).

According to MICS 2016, over 75% of women live in rural areas and represent 53.3 % of the
agricultural work force. The great majority of women farmers are illiterate. Rural women
practice subsistence farming and do not receive any remuneration (78.5% of them have family
helper status). They cannot control the resources generated by the crops, even though they
provide considerable labour. They devote about 80% of their working time to performing
agricultural tasks that have received little benefit from new technologies. Women’s agricultural-
related economic activities are cereal cropping, tuber cropping, and market gardening, the
gathering and processing of nuts and seeds, etc. The average daily working day is 17 hours,
about ten of which are dedicated to agriculture and the remainder to family and domestic chores.

As regards the division of roles in the sector, women play a major role at the production level -
soil preparation, sowing, weeding and harvesting. In the forest region, gender parity is more
pronounced in soil preparation. In maritime Guinea, women carry out transplanting, weeding
and mangrove swamp rice cultivation. In Upper Guinea, where animal traction is used in rice
cultivation, women are often required to carry out weeding. In addition to the family field,
women and their organisation are involved in their own farming activities. Women are the key
players in processing and marketing, and they work as collectors/parboilers. These women take
up most of the products marketed by producers and parboil them before hulling.

3. Gender analysis in crosscutting sectors

An analysis of gender mainstreaming in crosscutting themes reveals a lack of gender-

disaggregated data, the non-existence of any specific evaluation of gender mainstreaming, and
weak ownership of measures resulting in wide disparities but especially raising the gender issue
to a systemic issue affecting all sectors.

Governance and women’s participation in decision-making bodies: Women’s overall

participation rate in decision-making positions remains low. Women only represent 23% of
members of municipal councils, 77% of whom are men. With women accounting for 18% of
the members of government, 13% of regional Governors and 6% of Prefects, Guinea still
appears to fall far short of the 30% quota for female representation.

XII
Employment and women’s participation in economic life: According to the 2017 National
Gender Policy, the population of working age in Guinea is 2,306,244 people, 54% of whom are
men and 46% women. Of this number, 49% of men and 72% of women are self-employed.
Despite their demographic weight (51.7%), Guinean women only constitute 9.7% of the formal
sector (public and private). Overall, women represent less than 30% of civil service personnel.
However, Guinean women are economically very active, even though the majority of them
carry out their activities in the informal sector.

Education: With a Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) in primary education of 75.6% for girls and
a dropout rate that remains worrisome (9% overall, 10.1% for girls and 8.2% for boys), Guinea’s
enrolment rate for women and girls is low. As the training programme advances, the number of
girls declines. In secondary education, the GER for girls is 28% compared to 49% for boys. The
proportion of teachers-researchers in higher education during the 2014-2015 academic year was
6.2%, with an even lower proportion in the scientific and technical streams (2.36%).

Nutrition, maternal and child health: The problems of malnutrition, HIV/AIDS and infant
mortality remain of great concern, with a worrisome malnutrition rate (acute, severe and
moderate). HIV/AIDS remains a public health problem with a higher prevalence rate of the virus
among pregnant women than for the general population. The ART access rate for pregnant
women rose from 17% in 2011 to 62% in 2014 (PNDES), representing progress in containing
the transmission of the AIDS virus from mother to child. Moreover, the overall risk of death
between birth and the fifth birthday is 88 deaths per 1000 live births, i.e. about nine out of one
hundred children. Health-related risk factors affecting women remain poverty, inaccessibility
of health centres and mothers’ low level of education.

Gender-based violence (GBV): women’s status is a source of social inequalities and women
are the victims of different types of violence, including female genital mutilation as well as
physical and psychological violence. Of all the types of violence, conjugal violence is the most
frequent. Almost two out of three women (63%) are victims of conjugal violence in varying
proportions, depending on the region. Paradoxically, only 6.6% of men and 5.1% women filed
a complaint after having been the victim of GBV, and fewer than 5% of men and 3% of the
women who filed complaints received a response.

XIII
Annex 8: Guinea - Environment, Climate Change and Green Growth-related Challenges

I. Context : Climate Change Situation in Guinea

Guinea is a country with a weak climate change adaptation and resilience capacity. The country
is at once mountainous, forest-covered and coastal, and most of the population is engaged in
agro-pastoral activities. Industrial production and mining activities provide a living for some
communities but render the environment fragile. Fishery, agricultural and stockbreeding
activities that employ the vast majority of the work force are seriously affected by climatic
variations. According to the Limited Poverty Assessment Survey (ELEP 2012), 66.4% of
farming households live below the poverty line.

An analysis of rainfall variability reveals a decline in rainfall over the last few decades in
Middle, Upper and Lower Guinea. The only exception is the Guinea forest region although the
rate of increase there is also very slow. It is worth noting that in a single region, the decline in
rainfall is more pronounced in the more northern localities. Unlike the other three natural
regions, there are fewer intra-regional contrasts in the Guinea forest region. As in the case of
the annual precipitation series, very pronounced variations of the Niger River annual have been
observed since the 1970s. The findings of the study on the water balance of the Niger River in
Guinea conducted over the 1950–2000 period confirms a parallel decline in precipitation and
flow rates. For the 2000-2100 period, it is expected that temperature increases will vary between
0.3 and 4.8°C in Middle and Upper Guinea, and between 0.2 and 3.9°C in Lower Guinea and
in the Guinea Forest Region, depending on atmospheric sensitivities. Rising temperatures will
be accompanied by changes in the distribution and volume of precipitation nationwide. These
changes could reach 36.4 % of the present day normal rate from 2050 and 40.4% in 2100. This
sharp drop in rainfall will have major impacts on water resources (surface and groundwater)
and the country’s main socioeconomic sectors. The main climate-related risks are rising surface
temperatures and sea levels (coastal strip), drought, flooding, disruption of precipitation
regimes and storms.

National Policies and Strategy Documents

The Republic of Guinea ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol in 1993 and 2005, respectively. Since then, it has prepared
strategies to combat climate change, including its Initial National Communication based on a
2001 inventory of greenhouse gases (GHG) [based on 1994 emissions]. A second inventory
was carried out in 2011 (2000 emissions) but has not yet led to the submission of a new National
Communication. The Second National Communication (NC) is being prepared. The country
prepared its National Climate Change Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) in 2007 and has
initiated several projects to implement the plan. Moreover, in 2016, the country validated its
Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) document with a view to achieving
economic development that takes climatic challenges into account. In this document, Guinea
targets resilience and adaptation and a 23% drop in greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 compared
to 1994. In 2017, its implementation has resulted in the reforestation of 650 ha, which falls
short of the national target of 1000 ha.

In addition, the fight against climate change is increasingly taken into account in other planning
documents, examples of which are the Letter of Agricultural Sector Development Policy, the
Livestock Protection Policy Letter as well as the forest policy. The National Economic and
Social Development Plan, the sole policy framework document for all interventions in favour
of the country’s development over the 2016-2020 period, is focused on the following four
pillars: (i) promotion of good governance in the service of sustainable development; (ii)
XIV
sustainable and inclusive economic transformation; (iii) inclusive development of human
capital; and (iv) sustainable management of natural capital. This last pillar aims to achieve three
strategic outcomes: (i) natural resources are rationally managed; (ii) the living environment is
protected; (iii) climate change resilience and adaptation are strengthened.

II. Challenges and Opportunities

Adaptation Needs and Priorities

Rising surface temperatures and sea levels will result in the submersion of low-lying land,
modification of the taxonomic structure, the destruction of infrastructure, the disappearance or
migration of animal species, the destruction of part of the mangrove swamps, saline infiltration,
and the scarcity of drinking water, the loss of arable land and harvest, social conflicts and the
spread of diseases.

Drought and strong sunlight will dry up land, deteriorate spring headwaters, dry up small
streams and ponds, result in severe low water levels of major rivers, silting of watercourse beds,
the loss of biodiversity, loss of cattle, increase in the number of bush fires, increased
evapotranspiration, population migration, famine, the spread of waterborne diseases, etc.
Floods cause the destruction of riparian socioeconomic infrastructure, loss of human life,
property, animal and plant species, the spread of waterborne diseases, the destruction of crops
on wetlands or plains, inaccessibility of production areas, etc.

The disruption of precipitation patterns will result in alteration of the cropping calendar, loss of
harvests and income, disruption of stream flow, famine, etc. Stormy weather will result in the
loss of human lives and property, the uprooting of trees (wind throw), landslides, etc. The lack
of adaptation mitigation measures from the physical (sensitive and risk-prone areas) and human
standpoint (urban and rural populations dependent on fragile lifestyles) constitutes a potential
risk for the country’s development. Natural disasters and their humanitarian consequences also
remain virtually unpredictable and constitute a serious risk for the continuing momentum for
economic and social development.

The country must strengthen the adaptation and resilience measures by incorporating
environmental priorities in strategic planning and annual budgets, and allocate substantial
financial resources to them.

Because of harmful natural resource exploitation practises and the impacts of climate change,
the country’s entire territory is experiencing widespread ecosystem degradation, the degree of
vulnerability to which varies from region to region.

Current Mitigation Measures

Depending on the natural regions, resources and socioeconomic groups, several adaptation
options are being implemented. These mainly concern:

i) Promotion of agroforestry.

ii) Knowledge building and development of endogenous practices.

iii) Promotion of appropriate adaptation technologies (dissemination of energy-

saving technologies, initiation of coastal communities to mangrove swamp
oyster farming technologies, promotion of technologies for the production of

XV
 drinking water from surface water in rural areas, promotion of solar salt
production in the Guinean coastal area and dissemination of erosion control
practises to protect crops.

iv) Promotion of bush fire management and deferred grazing.

v) Protection and restoration of fragile ecosystems (establishment and management

of protected areas, forest management, reforestation and restoration).

vi) Promotion of the development and integrated management of small–scale water

structures (construction of multi-purpose micro-dams, construction of hillside
reservoirs and impluviums).

vii) Promotion of irrigation schemes on plains and wetlands.

viii) Protection of spawning areas.

ix) Promotion of income-generating activities.

x) Promotion of small ruminant breeding, promotion of market garden crops,

establishment of grasscutter ranches in order to reduce bush fires and improve
the living conditions of rural communities.

III. Institutional and Regulatory Reforms

The Ministry of Environment and Forests (MEEF), through the National Environment
Department, is responsible for coordinating the implementation of GoG’s policy for combating
climate change and managing GHG inventories. Guinea is working to strengthen the National
Environment Council (CNE), placed under the oversight of the MEEF. For instance, as a
consultative council responsible for providing MEEF with environmental sector management,
CNE was responsible for preparation of the NAPA.

The National Consultation Platform on COP21 (hereinafter PNC-COP21) was set up on

MEEF’s initiative to mobilise representatives of the State, technical departments, civil society
and the private sector so that Guinea's voice could be heard, taking on board contributions from
all relevant institutions and every level of society. Its objectives include the development of
information and communication concerning COP 21, and raising the awareness of civil society
and economic operators. It comprises a high-level (ministerial) segment and 11 thematic panels
that helped to draw up the intended nationally determined contributions (INDC) under the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in September 2015.

IV. Proposed Bank Operations

In light of the country’s realities, the Bank has identified the following priority areas of
intervention for which it could provide assistance: capacity building and adaptation and
resilience measures.

i) Institutional capacity at country level is weak and must be strengthened to include

concerns linked to climate change in sector policies and strategies (e.g. agricultural,
environmental or water-related policies)
ii) National measures to mitigate climate change-related risks and their impacts at local
level are still weak and Guinea does not yet have an efficient meteorological system
that will facilitate the gathering and analysis of meteorological data
XVI
iii) Adaptation and resilience measures incorporating environmental priorities in strategic
planning must be strengthened

XVII
Annex 9: Guinea-Report on the Fiduciary Risk Assessment of the Public Finance
Management System for the CSP, 2018-2022

I. INTRODUCTION

The aim of this report is to assess Guinea’s fiduciary risks in the context of the appraisal of the
Country Strategy Paper (CSP). It was prepared with reference to 2014 policies, guidelines,
handbooks and guides on country fiduciary risk assessment and programme-based operations
or Bank reforms. The objectives of the assessment are to assess the level of the country’s
fiduciary risk in relation to the Bank’s fiduciary risk appetite. Indeed, it must be confirmed that,
if the resources for operations are included in the budget, their use will be reported in a
transparent manner. The fiduciary risk analysis draws on the PEFA 2013 diagnostic report on
the public finance management system prepared by the IMF, as well as on implementation of
the public finance management reform plan as at 30 November 2014 and finally, anticipates the
implementation of the short- to medium-term measures envisaged in the three-year Action Plan,
(TAP 2017 – 2019) to analyse the finance management components.

Following the report’s Executive Summary, the public finance management assessment will be
presented as well as the Bank’s fiduciary strategy in Guinea and the implementation and
monitoring arrangements for the operations envisaged over the CSP period.

II. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Public finance management reforms were negatively impacted by the Ebola virus disease
between 2014 and 2015. As such, the public finance reform did not make any significant
progress until 2016. Overall, the initial risk is substantial, trending towards moderate if the
planned measures in the Three-Year Action Plan (2017 – 2019) for reform of the public finance
management system are implemented.

2.1. Summary Risk Assessment Table (CPI)

Initial
Item Indicator
Risk
The capacity of the budget
subsystem is adequate for
budget planning and
preparation.
1.
Budget
The capacity of the budget
subsystem is adequate for
budget control.
The capacity of the cashflow
subsystem is sufficient to
manage aid-related resource
2. and disbursement flows.
Cash flow
subsystem The single treasury account is
an appropriate and reliable
means of administering aid-
related funds.
XVIII
Residual
Mitigation Measures
Risk
Configuration of budget software for
planning (macro framework) and
programming (Medium-term Budget
Framework) in accordance with the
M LORF in 2017. Establishment of M
commitment authorisations and
payment credits for investments.
Initial establishment of 2018-2020
programme-based budgets.
Reforms to be completed in 2018:
adoption of a new general tax code,
S extension and formalisation of the M
budget control manual, and training of
financial control officers.
Mastery of cash flow planning and
management tools stemming from the
S M
LORF in 2018.
Finalise the STA conceptual
framework and operationalise it in
S M
2018

Item Indicator
The capacity of the accounting
subsystems is sufficient for
recording all transactions and
serving as a basis for the timely
preparation of comprehensive
financial reports.
The financial management
information systems are
sufficiently flexible to meet the
specific requirements regarding
the preparation of reports and
are governed by procedures that
will ensure adherence to the
3. stipulated timeframes and the
Accounting and quality of information
preparation of produced.
financial
reports The financial accounting
subsystem includes an
integrated module on fixed
assets to ensure the recording
and appropriate control of assets
acquired.
The accounting subsystems
maintain updated files on the
country’s borrowings.
The accounting systems are
protected from deliberate
manipulation of data and/or
accidental loss or corruption of
data.
The capacity of the internal
control subsystem is adequate.
The mechanisms for
4. competition, optimal resource
Internal use and procurement control are
verification appropriate.
The capacity of the internal
control function is sufficient.
Initial Residual
Mitigation Measures
Risk Risk
Adopt the new standards and new chart
of accounts.
Prepare accounting system
implementation handbooks and
S M
guides.
Re-read the statutes for public
accountants.
Adapt or acquire a computerised
accounting system for the new
accounting system.
Produce consolidated monthly
(general balance, cash flow, funds
collected and disbursed) and annual
S M
statements (balance sheet, operating
account, cash flow table, general
ledger and sub-ledgers).
Issue a decree setting out the timelines
and modalities for presenting the
accounts.
Introduce accrual accounting from
2018.
H M
Strengthen the policy, institutional and
regulatory framework for public debt
(strategic and programme-based
M M
framework, mastery of operational
management and the debt information
and monitoring system).
Strengthen computer data security
system.
M M
Strengthen a priori control of public
expenditure.
Prepare the financial control
S M
handbook.
Strengthen the effectiveness and
quality of procurement (annual
procurement plan).
Improve transparency of and
M M
information on contracts (acquire
contract registration software, create a
website and relaunch the Official
Gazette).
Increase the number of financial
S controllers. M
Train financial controllers.
XIX
 Initial Residual
Item Indicator Mitigation Measures
Risk Risk
The ISC enjoys the required The Organic Law and its implementing
degree of autonomy to perform texts were enacted at the end of 2015,
its duties efficiently. S and the Court of Auditors is M
operational.
5
External Audit
The ISC has the required Staff are recruited for the Court of
capacity to perform its control Auditors and only the implementation
M M
mission. of controls and delivery of judgements
remain.
OVERALL RISK ASSESSMENT S M
Assessment Criteria: H = high risk; S = substantial risk; M = moderate risk; L = low risk

III. PUBLIC FINANCE MANAGEMENT ASSESSMENT

Implementation of the public finance management system reforms slowed down following the
enactment of the Framework Law on the financial system, adopted in August 2012, partly
because of the Ebola virus disease outbreak in 2014 and 2015. The updating of the Three-Year
Action Plan (TAP 2017-2019) represents a fresh start for the completion of the overall reform
to improve financial governance in Guinea.

3.1. Budget Preparation, Execution and Implementation

Budget credibility, which had been fairly well maintained between 2012 and 2013,
deteriorated between 2014 and 2015 under the influence of expenditure related to fighting the
Ebola virus disease, with very little control of arrears and a significant modification of the
expenditure structure between the initial and final budgets. Establishment of the programme-
based budget from 2018 will enhance budget credibility.

Exhaustiveness and transparency have hardly improved, as the public still does not have
access to budget information and the budget information submitted to the National Assembly
remains incomplete in terms of international good practice.

Adoption of the law on financial governance aimed at defining the rules for budget preparation
should strengthen the budget preparation mechanism, and the formalisation of the Forecasting
Committee comprising the economic and financial ministries (Finance, Budget, Planning) and
several sector ministries (Agriculture, Health, Education, etc.). Formalisation of the Forecasting
Committee should ensure closer alignment of the budget on public policy with the preparation
of overall and sector Medium-Term Expenditure Frameworks (MTEF) and Medium-Term
Budgetary Frameworks (MTBF) based on three-year activity programmes. Similarly,
implementation of the Government budget stemming from the Framework Law on the financial
system should improve budget presentation and ensure the traceability of poverty reduction
expenditure through functional classification.

Budget predictability has improved with the adoption and partial implementation of the new
general Tax Code that should enhance taxpayer registration, communication on taxpayers’
rights and tax collection.

The budget execution control mechanism through the National Financial Control Department
and the Inspectorate General of Finance remains to be completed under the Framework Law on
the financial system, in particular with the preparation of operational handbooks, strengthening
staff and building capacity.
XX
The risk of preparing a budget that is not aligned on national policies and the inadequately
controlled execution is substantial overall. However, the risk will become moderate following
the implementation of measures planned in the 2017-2019 Three-Year Plan. The main measures
are listed in the above analytical table.

3.2. Cash Flow

There has been little improvement in the performance of cash flow monitoring and management
mechanisms since the 2006 PEFA. Cash flow forecasts are prepared for the fiscal year monthly
and annually based on outputs. To improve cash flow management and monitoring, Decree No.
0932/PM/SGG/2010 was issued on 13 April 2010, on the establishment, responsibilities and
composition of the Cash Flow Committee under the Authority of the Prime Minister and a
Technical Support Unit.

The levelling of the main cash accounts on the National Treasury Department’s account is
carried out monthly. Daily revenue account levelling (National Tax Department, National
Customs Department, The Treasury’s Central Authority) and that of the Paymaster-General, is
envisaged by the authorities as part of the process of establishing a Single Treasury Account
(STA) that has begun but at a slow pace.

The difficulties encountered in preparing reliable forecasts and complying with expenditure
commitment procedures have until now prevented more efficient cash flow monitoring. As part
of budget regulation, a monthly commitment is prepared by the National Budget Department,
but this programming does not take into account the seasonal nature of some ministries’
expenditure.

Overall, the cash flow risk is moderate insofar as management tools have been installed but
must be fine-tuned.

3.3. Accounting and Financial Reporting

The budget execution report that compares the budget voted with executed expenditure,
commenting on possible differences, has not yet been produced. However, several budget
execution monitoring tools are available, including the Public Finance Spreadsheet prepared
monthly and application of the Expenditure Chain for controlling credit, commitments, orders
to pay, validation and mandates for all the administrative units included in the general
government budget.

Documentation on and traceability of bank reconciliations are adequate enough to conclude that
they are exhaustive and effective.

The reconciliation and adjustment of suspense and imprest accounts are carried out annually,
but many accounts have old balances carried over.

The new Organic Law now requires GoG to monthly monitor statements on budget execution.
Thus, temporary accounts derived from the budgetary accounts shall be opened monthly and
forwarded for information to the National Assembly and the Court of Auditors. The Budget
Review Laws were prepared for the 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 fiscal years and forwarded to
the Court of Auditors in 2014 and 2015, but the General Accounts of the Financial
Administration (CGAF) have still not been produced. Mainly, the budgetary accounting results
and financial statements established on an accrual basis (Central Government Account) shall be
produced at year-end. The Organic Law also stipulates that the accounting standards and
XXI
government chart of accounts shall be based on the West African Accounting System and other
international accounting standards, while taking into account the specificities of the Republic
of Guinea. Finally, it requires that the General Government Account be submitted for review to
the Court of Auditors latest 30 June of the fiscal year following the one for which it was
established. The accounts from 2010 to 2015 have not yet been forwarded to the Court of
Auditors but all the previous accounts were accepted pursuant to the 2017 Law.

Overall, the risk of not presenting the accounts within the stipulated timeframe is high.
However, full implementation of the Organic Law should improve the accounting situation
from 2018.

3.4. Internal Verification

Financial control exercises control of regularity and compliance at the commitment stage, but
also controls the materiality of expenditure. Strict compliance with expenditure commitment
control procedures and circuits is not fully achieved. Implementation of the provisions of the
General Regulations on Budget Management and Public Accounting (RGGBCP) should
contribute to reducing the unjustified use of exceptional or waiver procedures now
recommended.

The administrative verification and control bodies (IGE, IGF and ministerial internal
inspections) intervene based on previously established programmes or upon instructions in
respect of non-programme missions. The reports are forwarded to verified services based on a
contradictory procedure but the final reports are not disseminated. There are no clear and
formalised procedures to establish monitoring of the implementation of adequate measures in
response to the conclusions of the verification reports.

Overall, the measures planned under the reform, in particular preparation of a Control
Procedures Handbook which is nearing completion and capacity building for controllers, will
help to consolidate the moderate nature of the fiduciary risk.

3.5. Auditing and External Control

External control has remained almost non-existent because the new Court of Auditors was only
recently established at the end of 2015 following promulgation of the Organic Law on its
Statutes and those of the magistrates. The challenge to be addressed was to build its capacity to
allow it to exercise its prerogatives of public expenditure control fully independently. However,
the Court has produced compliance reports on the audited budgets from 2011 to 2013, and the
accounts for 2014. Reports on subsequent years are expected.

In addition, the review of the Budget Law by the National Assembly was strengthened with the
adoption of the budget before the beginning of the fiscal year, even though the time allotted for
review is insufficient to be able to discuss the budget in depth.

Overall, the risk of not controlling public resources and their use is moderate and should be
maintained with the operational establishment of the Court of Auditors, in particular: (i) the
recruitment of auditors; (ii) the implementation of new statutes for magistrates; and (iii) timely
production and publication of the general report on compliance of the executed budget with the
budget approved by the National Assembly.

3.6. Combating Corruption

XXII
Guinea has not yet established a national good governance and anti-corruption policy. From
2013 to 2017, it improved slightly from 150th position out of 177 countries in Transparency
International’s Corruption Perceptions Index to 148th position out of 180 countries. The country
should prepare its anti-corruption policy.

IV. FIDUCIARY STRATEGY FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF BUDGET

SUPPORT

During CSP 2018–2022, the national public finance management system will only be used for
budget support operations since it is being improved with TAP 2017–2019. However, as a result
of the capacity building projects funded by the Bank, World Bank and European Union in
support of the ongoing implementation of the public finance reform strategic plan stemming
from PEFA 2013, the quality, reliability, quality and transparency of the public finance
management system has improved and Guinea may be considered to be on a positive trajectory.
PEFA 2017 is being finalised this year, and that will revitalise public finance management
reforms.

4.1. Disbursement of Funds

Since budget support resources are fungible with the other budget resources, they will be
disbursed into a special account opened with the Central Bank of the Republic of Guinea in the
name of the Public Treasury under the signature of the National Treasury Director. The
resources will then be paid into the Treasury Accounts to finance budget expenditure.
Disbursements for investment operations will be paid into a special account opened at the
Central Bank of the Republic of Guinea, then transferred to a local account in a primary bank.

4.2. Fund Flow Audit

Following the establishment of the Court of Auditors, and in order to ensure that the funds have
been effectively received in the General Government Budget, the audit of budget support
resources will be performed by the Court of Auditors.

The audit of the Bank’s other operations will be carried out by a private chartered accountant
selected through a competitive process on the basis of terms of reference approved by the Bank.

4.3. Programme Supervision and Reform Monitoring

The reform programme will be monitored through the CSP Mid-Term Review by a supervision
mission on the ground scheduled for 2020 and on the CSP’s expiry in 2022 when a completion
report will be prepared.

XXIII
Annex 10: Guinea-Public Procurement Framework for the CSP 2018-2022

1. Introduction

This Annex was drafted as part of the preparation of the Country Strategy Paper for Guinea
covering the 2018 – 2022 period. Its main objective is to: (i) produce a fiduciary risk assessment
of public procurement; (ii) provide a general opinion on the acceptability of Guinea’s public
procurement system with a view to using it in the financing of Bank-financed operations; and
(iii) make recommendations to improve the public procurement framework.

2. Public Procurement Fiduciary Risks

2.1 Public Procurement Legal and Regulatory Framework

Act L/2012/020/CNT of 11 October 2012 laying down the rules governing the award, control
and regulation of public contracts and public service delegation, and Decree
D/2012/128/PRG/SGG of 3 December 2012 on the Public Procurement Code and public service
delegation and its implementing texts, were examined and the risk for their use in operations
financed by the Bank is assessed as relatively ‘moderate’ for the following reasons:

i) The National Assembly remains the only republican institution that does not
apply the Public Procurement Code for its procurements, although Act
L/2012/020/CNT laying down the rules governing the award, control and
regulation of public contracts and public service delegation does not have a
waiver for that institution. Even though specificities are raised because of the
separations of powers between the executive and legislative branches, it does not
exempt the Assembly from using competitive procedures for its purchases.

ii) No specific rule has been defined for the implementation of Article 3 of the
CMP, which stipulates that the contracting authorities shall ensure that the
participation of a bidder that is a body governed by public law does not in any
way distort competition.

iii) Different standard bidding documents and requests for proposals have been
prepared for the procurement of goods, works and services. However, there are
still no simplified documents for procurements whose amounts are below
DNMP’s threshold of competence, whereas they represent a significant
proportion of procurement expenditure. The DNMP report on the status of
contracts approved in 2015 indicates that these contracts represent 16% of the
total value of contracts awarded.

iv) Publication of all the regulatory texts is not exhaustive. Only the Law, Code and
different decrees are published on the Website of the Public Procurement
Regulatory Authority (ARMP), http://www.armpguinee.org/. The implementing
orders, circular letters and the procedures handbook have not yet been published.
The same is true of the Ministry of Finance, which only publishes a few texts.

v) The control of contracts for amounts exceeding or equal to the procurement

thresholds and below 5 billion Guinean francs (new ACGPMP control threshold)
is now governed by a circular, whereas the control thresholds are governed by
Order which reflects some insecurity in compliance with legal standards.

XXIV
The impact of these weaknesses on the use of the country procurement system in the context of
Bank-funded operations is moderate overall.

2.2 Institutional Framework and Management Capacity

Guinea’s public procurement institutional framework, including the Public Procurement

Regulatory Authority (ARMP), the National Public Procurement Department (DNMP), the
Administration and Control of Major Projects and Public Procurement (ACGPMP), was
assessed to ensure that responsibilities are clearly defined and separated to avoid any conflicts
of interest in the handling of disputes arising from procurement activities. Furthermore, the
regulatory body should not be involved in procurement processes. The risk for the institutional
framework is deemed ‘substantial’. The Public Procurement Act (Article 5) recommends
separation of the procurement, control and regulatory functions. However, some provisions of
the regulations confer responsibility on the regulator for direct procurement activities. The
intervention of the Disputes Settlement Committee (CRD) in conflicts between entities and in
the granting of authorisation for direct procurement places it in a potential conflict of interests
situation, since it may find itself in the position of judge and accused at the same time, in the
case where a bidder files a complaint relating to a procedure on which it had already ruled.
Indeed: (i) Article 132 of the CMP empowers CRD ‘ to rule on appeals opposing one or more
administrative entities’; (ii) Article 38 of the CMP stipulates that on the assumption that a
contracting authority (CA) requests from the Ministry of Finance an authorisation to award a
contract by direct negotiation, while the 10% limit in relation to the total contracts awarded by
the CA as provided for by the regulations has been exceeded, DNMP is required to refer the
matter to the Regulatory Authority which will validate the procedure, except on the assumption
that authorisation is refused; (iii) Article 23 of Decree No. 167 on the organisation and operation
of ARMP, stipulates that the CRD Litigation Commission ‘is also competent to rule on requests
for direct negotiation authorisation, pursuant to the application of paragraph 4 of Article 38 of
the Public Procurement Code’. Furthermore, Article 3 of the Decree on the organisation and
operation of the ARMP confers on the latter the responsibility for recruiting independent
observers. However, these independent observers participate in bid opening operations and in
bid evaluation, and although they have neither consultative nor deliberative power and must
remain neutral and independent, they actually carry out real control work. On completion of the
bid evaluation process, they must draft a report for ARMP’s Director-General covering the
following points: bid structure; statements by bidders’ representatives and bid opening;
incidents occurring during the commission’s deliberations; errors of appreciation or
interpretation made by the Commission; proposals for award of contract; and conclusion and
recommendations, if necessary (Chapter VI of the Independent Observer’s Guide). In the event
of an appeal relating to a procedure that was the subject of a report by the independent observer,
the CRD could therefore not have all the necessary independence to take a decision.

2.3 Operational Activities for the Award and Execution of Contracts

The contracting authorities are fully empowered to award and control contracts for amounts
below the procurement thresholds (requests for quotations), whereas not all the PPCUs are fully
operational. As regards contracts for amounts exceeding the procurement thresholds, the
contracting authorities are responsible for preparing bidding documents and launching the
process, while DNMP is solely charged with bid opening and evaluation. This helps to relieve
the contracting authorities. This divestment of the contracting authorities contributes neither to
improving the effectiveness of the procedures nor to building the capacity of their employees.
Furthermore, promulgation of the Order on raising ACGPMP’s control thresholds initially
contributed to leaving bid opening and evaluation procedures for contracts exceeding or equal

XXV
to the procurement thresholds for contracts below 5 billion Guinean francs without a priori
control (new ACGPMP control threshold). Thereafter, DNMP opens the bids, evaluates them
and designates the provisional successful bidder to carry out a priori control, prior to the
establishment of a unit within the Office of the Minister to conduct such control. This offers an
opportunity to raise the threshold as had been recommended to reduce procurement times and
which, in the end, would only result in the change of controller. Furthermore, establishment of
the control structure by circular reflects a certain legal risk, since the control thresholds are
governed by decree. However, the powers thus delegated to DNMP by raising the control
threshold do not take into account the risks associated with the amounts at stake.

2.4 Integrity and transparency of the public procurement system

This component of the evaluation aims to ensure that: (i) policies and procedures on external
auditing, internal control and procurement auditing are in place; (ii) bidders may lodge
complaints throughout the procurement process, but that each body responsible for handling
the complaints is independent; and (iii) there are sufficient clear and detailed provisions on
fraud and corruption in law and in the standard procurement documents.

It is noted that the control mechanisms recommended by the legal framework are non-compliant
with Article 5 of the law recommending the separation of public procurement award, control
and regulatory activities. Responsible for a priori control, ACGPMP is the public sector
contractor and is charged with procurement for large projects, for which it carries out the a
priori sector control. Furthermore, for all public sector contracts executed in Guinea, it validates
the statements of account and is responsible for provisional and final acceptance. Therefore,
ACGPMP is not in a position to exercise independent control over all contracts. Furthermore,
the award system (bid opening/evaluation and award of contract by DNMP) for contracts
exceeding the procurement thresholds and below 5 billion Guinean francs (new ACGPMP
review threshold) by decision taken through a circular (whereas the control thresholds are
governed by an Order), is monitored by a structure at the Office of the Minister of Finance. The
Order on raising ACGPMP control thresholds does not mention the structure now responsible
for this control. Procurement at the level of the bodies responsible for national defense and
security is also not controlled due to failure to set up the structure envisaged by CMP to control
these contracts. While the legal framework clearly organises internal control at the level of the
contracting authorities, the Public Procurement Control Units (PPCU) responsible for this
control are not operational. The core powers delegated to the Contracting Authorities and
DNMP are not based on a risk assessment and the controls are not adapted to risk management.
For example, raising ACGPMP’s control thresholds is a response to the need for rapidity and
not based on an assessment of the capacity of the contracting authorities and DNMP. ARMP
has not yet performed an audit due to lack of resources.

2.5 Synthesis of risks, mitigation measures and/or reform actions

The assessment revealed a varied level of risks depending on the Pillar. The different indicators
of Pillars 1 and 2 (legal and regulatory framework, institutional framework) present a moderate-
to-substantial risk level. This risk level varied from substantial to high for pillars 3 and 4
(operational practices, integrity and transparency). Based on divergences identified between
Guinea’s public procurement system and generally accepted international practices, the overall
risk is deemed substantial. This risk could be brought down to a fairly ‘moderate’ level to ensure
more efficient use of public resources by taking corrective measures or by implementing the
following reforms:

XXVI
No. Risk Factors Risk Level Proposed Reform Actions

3. At the National Assembly level,

1. The National Assembly does not apply the
2. Mod establish an internal and external
1. Public Procurement Code for its
erate control mechanism for contracts
procurements
awarded by that body.

4. Non-existence of a specific rule for the
implementation of Article 3 of the CMP on
2.
the participation of a public sector bidder in
the public procurement procedure
Issue a regulatory text to specify the
implementing modalities for executing the
Moderate
provisions of Article 3 of the CMP on the
participation of public enterprises.

5. There are no simplified bidding documents

ARMP should prepare simplified standard
3. for procurements whose amounts do not Moderate
documents for this type of procurement.
exceed DNMP’s threshold of competence

3. Modify the CMP and the Decree on the

organisation and operation of ARMP
so that ARMP is no longer involved in
1. Direct involvement of ARMP in procurement
2. Subst granting authorisation to directly
4. operations through direct contracting
antial negotiated contracts. Furthermore,
authorisations and independent observers
independent observers, if required,
must not be placed under ARMP’s
oversight.

ACGPMP, responsible for a priori control is also

In accordance with the law, modify the CMP
charged with procurements for large projects and is
5 High to establish an a priori control structure not
therefore not in a position to exercise independent
involved in procurement operations.
control over all contracts

ACGPMP, which carries out a priori control, is also

the public sector contractor for projects, public
procurements and public service delegations.
Therefore, it is involved in procurement operations. Take the necessary measures to eliminate any
In addition, ACGPMP is responsible for conflict of interest or competence between
6 High
certification of statements of accounts and award of contract, control, appeal and
provisional and final acceptance of all public regulation of public procurement.
procurements. Hence, ACGPMP has accumulated
several incompatible tasks from a public
procurement standpoint

DNMP’s award procedure (bid opening, bid

evaluation and designation of provisional successful
Amend the decree on raising ACGPMP’s
bidder) for contracts exceeding the procurement
review thresholds in order to assign to the
thresholds and below 5 billion Guinean francs (new
PPCU a priori control over the award of
7 ACGPMP review threshold) is controlled by a High
contracts for amounts exceeding the
structure in the Office of the Minister of Economy
procurement thresholds and below 5 billion
and Finance, pursuant to a decision taken by
Guinean francs.
circular, while the targeted objective was to reduce
procurement times by raising the control threshold.

XXVII
 (i) Empower the contracting authorities for
DNMP awards all public contracts whose amounts
the entire procurement procedure; (ii)
reach the procurement threshold instead of the
8 Moderate redefine the responsibilities of DNMP so as
contracting authorities in whose names the budget
not to involve it directly in the procurement
credits are entered
operations of contracting authorities.

Some Public Procurement Control Units (PPCU) Implement measures to operationalise the
9. Substantial
are not operational Public Procurement Control Units (PPCU).

National defense and security contracts are not

controlled because of the failure to establish the Implement measures to establish the Special
10 High
structures planned by CMP to control these Committee planned for that purpose.
contracts

The implementing orders, circular letters and the All the constituent texts on the regulation of
11 Moderate
procedures handbook have not been published public procurement should be duly published.

These weaknesses should be reassessed during budget support operations to ensure the effective
implementation of such operations. Any divergences not addressed could be retained as
triggering factors under programme-based operations.

3. Bank’s Public Procurement Strategy for the CSP 2018-2022 Period

3.1 Use of country system

The country procurement system was assessed based on indicators deemed critical to ensure
that the Bank’s fiduciary obligations and standards are not compromised when the system is
used for operations that it finances. This risk-based assessment has made it possible to envisage
the use of the system in operations financed by the Bank in light of divergences identified,
especially as regards the equity principle (impartiality, transparency, integrity, etc.) described
in the Procurement Policy for Bank Group-Funded Operations. Although this assessment gives
a general opinion of Guinea’s SPM, the divergences identified and risk levels determined must
be updated during the preparation/appraisal of each operation in order to confirm to what extent
SPM could be used, depending on the sector as well as the type, nature and complexity of the
project in question.

3.2 MAPS 2-based assessment of the procurement system

In light of recent public procurement developments (professionalisation, sustainable

procurement, PPP, etc.) and GoG’s secondary strategic procurement objectives, the Bank
strongly proposes an assessment of the system using the revised version of the Methodology
for Assessing Procurement Systems (MAPS 2) that was prepared under the guidance of the
development partners, the official development assistance recipient countries and OECD.
MAPS 2 fosters stronger ownership of the assessment process by the country, the introduction
of new procurement and public procurement management procedures, taking into account of
the country’s strategic development objectives through public procurement and closer
involvement of development partners. MAPS 2 will also provide GoG with an opportunity to
have the quality of its assessment report validated by an international secretariat based at
OECD. This will serve as a benchmark for all the technical and financial partners who provide
GoG with public procurement assistance. The Bank will provide technical support for this

XXVIII
exercise. The conclusions of this assessment will contribute to the consolidation of the strategic
public procurement reforms.

3.3 Promotion of national enterprises for a stronger impact on development

To achieve a stronger impact on the development of public procurement, the Bank’s

procurement policy approved in October 2015 emphasizes the importance of promoting and
encouraging the development of the national industries of regional member countries, while
also taking into account the need for these countries to focus on sustainable or green
procurements. Therefore, it would be appropriate to establish a policy to promote the
participation of national enterprises in bidding. Such a policy should focus on sectors or areas
in which the national enterprise has a comparative advantage. It would also be useful to initiate
the adoption of a national strategy to prepare these national enterprises to address environmental
and social requirements in public procurement. The guiding principles for these policies must
be set out in the Public Procurement Code. Furthermore, it would be useful to establish a fairly
representative working group including all public procurement actors, in order to propose a
road map for implementing that initiative.

3.4 Capacity building and information system

The goal of capacity-building initiatives for the public procurement system should be to
improve and strengthen the integrity of the national procurement system in order to improve
public spending efficiency. In this regard, actions to be implemented must focus on regularity
and transparency in public procurement control, the systematic conduct of independent audits
by ARMP, as well as the control of public procurement information. More specifically, the
capacity-building activities must help to:

Significantly improve public procurement information management. This will

ensure permanent and regular monitoring of public procurement information as
well as periodic statistics. This activity will also include the preparation of a
public procurement IT master plan to be used, based on the gradual introduction
of an electronic procurement system (e-Procurement). It will also be critical to
establish a comprehensive and cohesive roadmap to guide all actions to be
gradually implemented in order to consolidate a sufficiently integrated public
procurement information system.

Establish a plan to build the professional capacity of actors intervening in

contract award and execution; this should contribute to the real
professionalisation of the function. This activity would integrate other local
training structures to more effectively focus capacity-building efforts and ensure
their sustainability.

XXIX
 Annex 11: Guinea-Key Macroeconomic Indicators
Guinea
Selected Macroeconomic Indicators

Indicators Unit 2000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (e) 2018 (p)

National Accounts
GNI at Current Prices Million US $ 3 344 7 767 8 347 8 700 8 675 ... ...
GNI per Capita US$ 380 650 680 690 670 ... ...
GDP at Current Prices Million US $ 2 995 6 221 8 779 8 767 8 459 9 111 9 905
GDP at 2000 Constant prices Million US $ 2 995 4 510 4 677 4 841 5 163 5 510 5 825
Real GDP Growth Rate % 2,9 3,9 3,7 3,5 6,6 6,7 5,7
Real per Capita GDP Growth Rate % 1,1 1,2 0,9 0,8 3,9 4,0 3,0
Gross Domestic Investment % GDP 13,6 20,3 23,4 23,6 21,4 22,2 21,0
Public Investment % GDP 5,0 7,3 9,8 9,8 6,3 6,9 8,7
Private Investment % GDP 8,5 13,0 13,6 13,7 15,1 15,3 12,2
Gross National Savings % GDP 10,2 -1,0 -7,0 -8,1 -6,7 -0,7 -1,2

Prices and Money

Inflation (CPI) % 6,9 11,9 9,7 8,2 8,3 8,5 8,0
Exchange Rate (Annual Average) local currency/US$ 1 746,9 6 907,9 7 014,1 7 485,5 8 959,7 9 117,6 9 682,0
Monetary Growth (M2) % ... ... ... 20,1 10,4 11,7 ...
Money and Quasi Money as % of GDP % 13,3 ... 29,5 33,3 31,8 32,4 ...

Government Finance
Total Revenue and Grants % GDP 13,7 19,9 15,8 14,9 16,3 17,5 17,6
Total Expenditure and Net Lending % GDP 17,2 26,8 20,2 21,8 15,9 17,0 18,8
Overall Deficit (-) / Surplus (+) % GDP -3,4 -6,9 -4,5 -6,9 0,3 0,6 -1,2

External Sector
Exports Volume Growth (Goods) % 5,7 -8,9 6,1 -2,5 54,8 24,2 7,3
Imports Volume Growth (Goods) % -8,4 -11,7 33,9 24,8 113,4 -5,2 -1,5
Terms of Trade Growth % -6,3 8,0 4,7 11,8 5,7 -5,6 3,3
Current Account Balance Million US $ -175 -1 050 -982 -1 020 -2 745 -3 082 -4 181
Current Account Balance % GDP -5,8 -16,9 -11,2 -11,6 -32,4 -33,8 -42,2
External Reserves months of imports 2,1 3,2 3,1 2,1 1,4 1,7 2,0

Debt and Financial Flows

Debt Service % exports 15,3 2,9 3,3 6,3 3,2 2,6 3,3
External Debt % GDP 80,7 18,8 20,8 21,4 22,8 22,7 28,6
Net Total Financial Flows Million US $ 329 386 605 580 513 ... ...
Net Official Development Assistance Million US $ 153 468 563 538 561 ... ...
Net Foreign Direct Investment Million US $ 10 135 68 85 104 ... ...

Real GDP Growth Rate, 2006-2018 Inflation (CPI), Current Account Balance as % of GDP,
2006-2018 2006-2018
%

8,0 40
0,0
35 -5,0
6,0
30 -10,0
4,0 25 -15,0
20 -20,0
2,0 -25,0
15
-30,0
10
0,0 -35,0
5 -40,0
-2,0 0 -45,0
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2 006
2 007
2 008
2 009
2 010
2 011
2 012
2 013
2 014
2 015
2 016
2 017
2 018
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Source : AfDB Statistics Department; IMF: World Economic Outlook,April 2018 and International Financial Statistics, April 2018;
AfDB Statistics Department: Development Data Portal Database, April 2018. United Nations: OECD, Reporting System Division.
Notes: … Data Not Available ( e ) Estimations ( p ) Projections Last Update: May 2018

XXX
 Annex 12: Comparative Socioeconomic Indicators

Guinea
COMPARATIVE SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Develo- Develo-
Year Guinea Africa ping ped
Countries Countries
Basic Indicators
GNI Per Capita US $
Area ( '000 Km²) 2017 246 30 067 80 386 53 939
Total Population (millions) 2017 13,3 1 184,5 5 945,0 1 401,5 2500

Urban Population (% of Total) 2017 37,2 39,7 47,0 80,7 2000

Population Density (per Km²) 2017 54,1 40,3 78,5 25,4 1500
GNI per Capita (US $) 2016 670 2 045 4 226 38 317 1000
Labor Force Participation *- Total (%) 2017 82,3 66,3 67,7 72,0
Labor Force Participation **- Female (%) 2017 79,4 56,5 53,0 64,5 500

Sex Ratio (per 100 female) 2017 100,7 0,801 0,506 0,792 0

2000
2005
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Human Dev elop. Index (Rank among 187 countries) 2015 183 ... ... ...
Popul. Liv ing Below $ 1.90 a Day (% of Population) 2012 35,3 39,6 17,0 ...
Guinea A frica

Demographic Indicators
Population Grow th Rate - Total (%) 2017 2,7 2,6 1,3 0,6
Population Grow th Rate - Urban (%) 2017 3,8 3,6 2,6 0,8
Population Growth Rate (%)
Population < 15 y ears (%) 2017 42,2 41,0 28,3 17,3
Population 15-24 y ears (%) 2017 19,9 3,5 6,2 16,0 3,0
Population >= 65 y ears (%) 2017 3,1 80,1 54,6 50,5 2,5
Dependency Ratio (%) 2017 82,9 100,1 102,8 97,4
Female Population 15-49 y ears (% of total population) 2017 23,4 24,0 25,8 23,0 2,0

Life Ex pectancy at Birth - Total (y ears) 2017 60,0 61,2 68,9 79,1 1,5

Life Ex pectancy at Birth - Female (y ears) 2017 60,5 62,6 70,8 82,1 1,0
Crude Birth Rate (per 1,000) 2017 35,5 34,8 21,0 11,6 0,5
Crude Death Rate (per 1,000) 2017 9,2 9,3 7,7 8,8 0,0
Infant Mortality Rate (per 1,000) 2016 58,3 52,2 35,2 5,8

2000
2005
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Child Mortality Rate (per 1,000) 2016 89,0 75,5 47,3 6,8
Total Fertility Rate (per w oman) 2017 4,8 4,6 2,6 1,7 Guinea A frica

Maternal Mortality Rate (per 100,000) 2015 679,0 411,3 230,0 22,0
Women Using Contraception (%) 2017 7,9 35,3 62,1 ...

Health & Nutrition Indicators

Phy sicians (per 100,000 people) 2016 7,5 46,9 118,1 308,0 Life Expectancy at Birth
Nurses and midw iv es (per 100,000 people) 2016 36,8 133,4 202,9 857,4 (years)
Births attended by Trained Health Personnel (%) 2012 45,3 50,6 67,7 ... 80
Access to Safe Water (% of Population) 2015 76,8 71,6 89,1 99,0 70
60
Access to Sanitation (% of Population) 2015 20,1 51,3 57 69 50
Percent. of Adults (aged 15-49) Liv ing w ith HIV/AIDS 2016 1,5 39,4 60,8 96,3 40
30
Incidence of Tuberculosis (per 100,000) 2016 176,0 3,8 1,2 ... 20
Child Immunization Against Tuberculosis (%) 2016 72,0 245,9 149,0 22,0 10
0
Child Immunization Against Measles (%) 2016 54,0 84,1 90,0 ...
2000
2005
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017

Underw eight Children (% of children under 5 y ears) 2012 16,3 76,0 82,7 93,9
Prev alence of stunding 2012 35,8 20,8 17,0 0,9 Guinea A frica

Prev alence of undernourishment (% of pop.) 2015 17,5 2 621 2 335 3 416

Public Ex penditure on Health (as % of GDP) 2014 2,7 2,7 3,1 7,3

Education Indicators
Gross Enrolment Ratio (%)
Primary School - Total 2014 93,9 106,4 109,4 101,3
Primary School - Female 2014 86,1 102,6 107,6 101,1 Infant Mortality Rate
( Per 1000 )
Secondary School - Total 2014 40,3 54,6 69,0 100,2
Secondary School - Female 2014 31,9 51,4 67,7 99,9 120
Primary School Female Teaching Staff (% of Total) 2014 30,0 45,1 58,1 81,6 100
Adult literacy Rate - Total (%) 2014 32,0 61,8 80,4 99,2 80
Adult literacy Rate - Male (%) 2014 43,6 70,7 85,9 99,3 60
Adult literacy Rate - Female (%) 2014 22,0 53,4 75,2 99,0 40
Percentage of GDP Spent on Education 2014 2,4 5,3 4,3 5,5
20
0
Environmental Indicators
2000
2005
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

Land Use (Arable Land as % of Total Land Area) 2015 12,6 8,6 11,9 9,4
Agricultural Land (as % of land area) 2015 59,0 43,2 43,4 30,0
Forest (As % of Land Area) 2015 25,9 23,3 28,0 34,5 Guinea A frica

Per Capita CO2 Emissions (metric tons) 2014 0,2 1,1 3,0 11,6

Sources : AfDB Statistics Department Databases; World Bank: World Development Indicators; last update : May 2018
UNAIDS; UNSD; WHO, UNICEF, UNDP; Country Reports.
Note : n.a. : Not Applicable ; … : Data Not Available. * Labor force participation rate, total (% of total population ages 15+)
** Labor force participation rate, female (% of female population ages 15+)

XXXI
Annex 13: Guinea - Terms of Reference for the Performance of an Operational Audit of
Tax Revenue Authorities

The Republic of Guinea is a West African country with an area of 245 857 km² and a population
of about 11.9 million (2018). Its fiscal policy is based on a system structured around direct
taxation, indirect taxation, other taxes, levies, duties and taxes, registrations and stamps.
Coverage by direct taxation includes the tax on business profits (30%), corporate tax (25% to
35%)4 ; withholding tax (0%, 10%, 15% and 20%)5 ; land tax (0%, 10% and 15%)6 ; non-
commercial profits tax (30%), etc. Indirect taxation mainly includes value-added tax (0% and
18%), tax on financial transactions (5% and 13%), tax on insurance contracts (5%, 8%, 12%
and 20%) and specific or excise taxes.

Guinea’s tax policy is mainly implemented and monitored by the Directorate-General of

Customs for customs duties and by the National Tax Department for internal taxation.

Although almost all the objectives set out under the Budget Law have been achieved, efforts
made over several years seem clearly insufficient in view of the current low tax ratio compared
to other countries of the sub-region. The respective tax ratios for 2017 and projected for 2018
are 14.8% and 15.3%, compared to 20.4% for Côte d’Ivoire and 22% for Senegal. This low tax
ratio is due to several strategic and operational malfunctions, including the quality of the
country’s tax system with some rates high or difficult to apply, poor management of the
taxpayers’ database, lack of regular monitoring of taxpayers, insecurity of tax identification
number, the non-existence of an internal control mechanism, the timidity of research activities,
difficulties in monitoring operational activities, the dilution of responsibilities between
services, and operational compartmentalization between the management of domestic taxes and
customs duties.

In view of these weaknesses, GoG has called on its development partners to provide technical
assistance for the gradual revamping of tax policy and modernisation of tax administration.
Concerning tax policy, this technical assistance contributed to the modernisation of the tax grid
for withholding taxes on wages and salaries, pensions and annuities (Article 8 of the 2018
Budget Law), the lowering of corporate tax, business taxes, non-commercial taxes and the
annual minimum tax (Articles 9, 10 and 11 of the 2018 Budget Law). Concerning the tax
administration modernisation component, technical assistance reorganised the taxpayers’ files
relating to the services of large- and medium-sized enterprises and improved the monitoring of
declaration requirements by providing training to managers.

While these new reforms and measures may help to improve the tax ratio by considerably
broadening the tax base, inefficiencies continue to affect the performance of tax departments in
terms of public revenue collection, the root causes of which should be diagnosed in light of the
performance observed in some of the countries of the sub-region. According to the World
Bank’s classification of fiscal policy effectiveness (2016), Guinea scored 3.5 compared to 4 for
Senegal out of a maximum score of 6. The Doing Business 2012 to 2018 reports show an
improvement of 26 spots in Guinea’s ranking from 179 th to 153rd position. However, over the
same period, the country dropped 6 spots in terms of ‘paying taxes’, from 176th to 182nd position
out of 190 countries. The weakness of the tax administration is also due to the level of
corruption that plagues the tax system. In 2017, Transparency International ranked Guinea
4 Articles 9, 10 and 11 of the 2018 Budget Law.
5 Article 8 of the 2018 Budget Law.

XXXII
148th out of 180 countries in terms of corruption perception, behind Senegal (66th), Côte
d’Ivoire (103rd) and Mali (122nd).

To effectively correct this poor performance, GoG is determined to initiate and implement
appropriate measures to strictly apply the provisions of the fiscal framework and improve the
governance of the financial authorities. These reforms are particularly timely, useful and urgent
since the country must now face the challenge of financing its National Economic and Social
Development Plan. For that reason, the Ministry of Budget is planning to use the services of a
renowned international firm to perform an operational audit of the revenue authorities under its
oversight. The operational audit will also specify the areas for reform following a commitment
by the African Development Bank (AfDB) to support GoG in its tax revenue mobilisation
programme.

I. Mission Objectives

The main objective of this audit mission is to build the operational capacity of the revenue
authorities in order to optimise the collection of duties and taxes to finance the National
Development Plan.

More specifically, it will be necessary to:

i) Perform an audit of the tax and duties collection system by capitalising on the
technical assistance outcomes that Guinea is currently benefiting from;

ii) Highlight the level of application of the existing legal and regulatory framework
in the implementation of tax policy;

iii) Assess the loss of revenue due to the non- or weak enforcement of legal and
regulatory texts;

iv) Assess the internal control system of the financial authorities, mainly concerning
the integrity of the taxpayers' register, risk assessment and mitigation, the
promotion of voluntary compliance with fiscal obligations, the payment of tax
arrears and the settlement of tax disputes;

v) Compare Guinea’s revenue collection performance with those of other countries

with the same characteristics;

vi) Outline methods for building technical and human capacity to enhance
efficiency in revenue mobilisation and security.

II. Expected Outcomes

The operational audit of the revenue authorities is expected to produce the following
outcomes:

i) A reliable diagnosis of the operations of revenue authorities in the strict

enforcement of legal and regulatory texts is effective and its content shared with the
authorities;

ii) Weaknesses in fiscal policy implementation are identified and corrective

solutions proposed;

XXXIII
 iii) An evaluation of the tax authorities, accompanied by performance indicators is
carried out;

iv) A comparison between the revenue authorities of Guinea and those of a few other
countries in the sub-region is carried out;

v) The tax potential of the revenue authorities is identified, especially in the rapidly
growing mining sector;

vi) The differences between forecasts and achievements for revenue are analysed
and solutions proposed for reducing them; and

vii) The tax-exempt management system is assessed and shared with the Ministry of
Budget.

III. Schedule/Recruitment

The study will be conducted based on an iterative and participatory approach to ensure more
effective participation of all stakeholders, within 85 working days in accordance with the
following schedule: (i) document search and collection (25 days), processing and analysis of
documents collected (22 days), drafting of provisional report (15 days), feedback from
authorities on the provisional report (8 days), drafting and submission of the final report (15
days). AfDB conditions for the recruitment of short-term consultants shall apply.

XXXIV
Annex 14: Guinea - Terms of Reference for the Preparation of Domestic Strategies for
Linkages with the Mining Sector

1. Context.

The African Development Bank (AfDB) attaches particular importance to natural resource
management as a platform for transformation. To address the challenges of sustainable
development and rational use of Africa’s natural resources, AfDB has established the African
Natural Resources Centre (ANRC). The ANRC does not grant loans but rather contributes to
knowledge building. Its mandate is to help African governments to maximize the development
results derived from natural resources. Hence, it helps these governments to build their capacity
to achieve inclusive and sustainable growth from their own resources.

Some African countries are endowed with significant natural resources. However, these
resources are hardly developed and do not contribute to the growth of other sectors of the
economy. Therefore, with AfDB support, GoG wishes to develop strategies in favour of
domestic linkages with most of the strategic sectors, using the mining sector as a base.

2. Strategy Needs

Guinea has significant mineral reserves (bauxite, untapped ore with a high iron content, gold,
diamonds, etc.) and strong agricultural potential (high rainfall, very fertile soil, etc.). Sources
of several West African rivers spring from Guinea or cross its territory, including the Senegal,
Niger and Gambia rivers with vast hydropower potential that could make Guinea a major power
exporter.

Unfortunately, Guinea does not take sufficient advantage of its mineral potential due to lack of
adequate infrastructure, qualified personnel and the urgent challenge of power for the high
energy-intensive mining sector. According to AfDB’s African Economic Outlook, the
country’s economic growth rate was 8.2% in 2017 and is projected at 5.8% in 2018 because of
strong performance in the mining, agriculture and construction sectors. In addition, GoG wishes
to accelerate its economic growth by taking advantage of the existing linkages between the
mining industry, agriculture and energy.

In some agricultural development zones, mining activities overlap and sometimes disrupt
agriculture, which employs 52% of the working population. To offset farmers’ losses, mining
companies through Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) programmes sometimes support
agriculture through training programmes targeting farmers and aimed at improving their
productivity.

In the energy sector, GoG in collaboration with the mining companies, wishes to develop off-
grid energy potential available in the country to supply affordable, sustainable and reliable
energy that will guarantee the mining sector’s self-sufficiency.

In this context, GoG requested the recruitment of a short-term consultant with ANRC support
to conduct a study on the development of strategies for domestic linkages in Guinea, using the
mining sector as launching pad.

3. Study Scope and Objectives

The study’s main objective is to design strategies to develop and strengthen domestic linkages
in mineral resources exploitation, and extend them to key sectors of the economy, including

XXXV
agriculture and energy, to promote sustainable development and support economic
diversification.

The study will be conducted nationwide with a special focus on mining areas and will aim to:

(a) Assess how the suppliers of goods and services in the mining sector can be
adapted to supply other sectors of the economy;

(b) Determine how the domestic market can supply more goods and services to the
mining sector and other strategic sectors of Guinea’s economy;

(c) Assess the existing potential that will allow mines to become self-sufficient in
energy and how surplus energy can be used to develop the mining regions;

(d) Determine how mining in Guinea can contribute to the modernisation of the
agricultural sector;

(e) Revise existing policies, laws and regulatory frameworks to ensure that mining
companies and the private sector can generate electricity to supply mining
activities and sell the surplus to local communities;

(f) Determine how CSR programmes of mining companies provide a compensation

mechanisms for social and agricultural costs associated with mining;

(g) Identify any other ad hoc activity to develop the mining sector, while linking it
to other sectors including energy and electricity;

(h) Identify mines that encroach on arable land and the policy measures that must
be implemented to promote activities that provide more money and benefits to
citizens, government and investors;

(i) Identify potential sources of energy located near mining sites that are suitable
for power generation to ensure the self-sufficiency of mining activities and the
modalities for supplying surplus energy to local and village communities;

(j) Gather and review existing mining policies, laws, regulatory and institutional
frameworks on land concessions and provisions in cases where mines overlap
arable land; and

(k) Assess the potential induced environmental impacts related to domestic linkages.

4. Expected Outcomes

The expected study outcomes are as follows:

i) Guinea will have a strategy paper setting out in detail how it will be able to take
action on domestic linkages based on existing interactions between mines and
other strategic sectors of the economy, including energy and agriculture;

ii) The mining companies developing locally available sources of energy and
market the surplus in a regulated manner to local communities, schools,
hospitals, administrative buildings, rural and village centres;

XXXVI
 iii) A Corporate Social Responsibility Strategy is developed to drive the
development of the mining regions;

iv) Dialogue is stepped up between the Ministry of Mines and Geology, the Ministry
of Agriculture and the Ministry of Territorial Administration and
Decentralisation concerning negotiations on concessions, expropriations and
other relevant issues so that all stakeholders (local and village communities,
investors, GoG) benefit from mining activities.

5. Schedule/Recruitment

The study will be conducted based on an iterative and participatory approach to ensure more
effective participation of all stakeholders, within a maximum period of six months. AfDB
conditions for the recruitment of short-term consultants shall apply.

XXXVII
Annex 15: GUINEA – MAIN MESSAGES FROM THE CONSULTATION PROCESS
REFLECTED IN THE PREPARATION OF THE CSP (2018 – 2022)
Consultations with Government
During the CSP preparation, the Bank consulted with the Guinean authorities on the pillars to
be retained as well as on the main thrusts of the Bank’s operations strategy for the 2018-2022
period. The areas of special interest, outcomes and targets to be achieved as well as issues that
could be the subject of dialogue were also discussed.

The Government presented to the Bank the country’s specificity as a niche of agricultural
and mining activities. The country is endowed with some of the greatest agricultural potential
of the West African sub-region, supported by significant water and forest resources. Guinea has
about six million hectares of cultivable land, of which only 20% are farmed with rain-fed crops.
Of the 700, 000 ha of cultivable land, only 30 200 ha are partly developed. The sources of the
seven largest rivers in West Africa lie in Guinea and 15 % of the country’s surface area is
covered by forests. Estimated hydropower potential is 6 000 MW and could supply the entire
sub-region with electricity if tapped. In addition to this vast agricultural and irrigation wealth,
the country is also endowed with vast natural resource potential (bauxite, iron, diamonds, gold,
water and agricultural resources, etc.). The exploitation of raw mineral resources, which creates
very few direct and skilled jobs, may constitute a powerful driver of resource generation for
constructing infrastructure (energy and transport), and harnessing water resources (hydropower
dams and agriculture).

The discussions concluded on the need to achieve significant, sustainable and more inclusive
economic growth that is less vulnerable to shocks. In this regard, Government’s priorities in its
future collaboration with the Bank aim to broaden the growth base within five years, mainly in
the following two potential sectors: (i) Energy infrastructure; and (ii) Agriculture and
agribusiness.

The Government has stressed the fact that the energy sub-sector performance remains
weak despite the country’s potential. Consumption per capita of about 0.5 tonnes oil
equivalent (TOE) is largely dominated by biomass (80%) and hydrocarbons (18%). Guinea has
significant hydropower potential estimated at 6 000 MW, under 5% of which is tapped.

The Government shared the content of its PNDES, which indicates that investment in
agriculture and agribusiness will create agricultural transformation and economic
growth. It will help to create formal jobs in remote regions to ensure more effective inclusive
growth. In addition, the targets defined by the PNDES for the agricultural and agribusiness
sector will not be reached without finding solutions to energy supply issues.

Private Sector Consultations

The CSP preparation mission held extremely fruitful discussions with private sector officials in
the list below. In the mining sector, the discussions noted that Société Minière de Boké (Boké
Mining Company, SMB) had launched production and that the capacity of Compagnie de
Bauxite de Guinée (Guinea Bauxite Company, CBG) had been consolidated.

Concerning agriculture, discussions with the private sector representatives mentioned the
need to offset central government subsidies in order to make the agricultural sector more
profitable. Higher yields are currently closely linked to subsidies in terms of agricultural inputs
and equipment. Private sector representatives are interested in investing in agriculture and
XXXVIII
agribusiness to offset central government subsidies if the business environment permits. The
private sector partners contacted consider that, if the business climate was good, they could
increase yield levels, which fluctuate around 1.2 tonnes per hectare for cereals. This particularly
concerns rice, in first position in terms of production (2.11 million tonnes) and food imports
(403 thousand tonnes for USD 152 million) in 2017. During the CSP period, the private sector
will focus on developing the agricultural potential.

The private sector representatives welcomed the revision of the PPP Law on investments in the
energy sub-sector (financed by AfDB). They hope that the updating of the Electricity
Generation, Transmission and Distribution Master Plan will encourage private sector
investment in energy generation.

The private sector representatives pointed out that many constraints were affecting productivity,
especially frequent power cuts. EDG’s electricity supply system is operated in a manner that
has consumers bear the brunt of the consequences of unsteady power supply. Manufacturers
complain that a ten-minute power cut in a factory may result in a production stoppage of over
five hours. The use of generators is the preferred solution for addressing production losses. This
alternative solution has proven to be very costly.

The private sector representatives welcomed AfDB’s undertaking to support the Government
in the deep structural reform of power generation, transmission, distribution and supply
activities, including private sector participation. These reforms will provide greater clarification
on the profitability of the different value chain segments to facilitate greater access to energy.
Furthermore, energy generation projects will continue to be supported by other donors and
opportunities provided by the Bank’s private sector window.

Consultations with Civil Society

The discussions with civil society specifically concerned the high level of poverty in the
country, especially in rural areas, and the means to address it. The working sessions with
civil society representatives contributed to the deepening of analysis of the development
challenges, constraints and opportunities that the Bank could take advantage to support the
Government in the context of PNDES implementation. The discussions confirmed that the
poverty rate is almost 55%, with women and young people the most vulnerable. Poverty is more
widespread in rural areas (65%). Furthermore, the civil society representatives recognised that
the authorities had made considerable efforts to improve the living conditions of the poor. For
example, implementation of the Productive Social Safety Nets Project allowed 8,499 children
from the poorest households to benefit from conditional cash transfers in 2017. Moreover, 8
265 children have benefited from the WFP school canteen programme compared with an initial
objective of 3,000 in 2019. The PNDES is aligned on the SDG and has made the fight against
poverty and social inequalities a priority.

The civil society representatives stressed the need to accelerate essential socioeconomic
infrastructure in rural areas. This infrastructure will contribute to the emergence of
endogenous resources and stronger spatial inclusion of growth. Such an approach will be part
of a global local development process taking into consideration all actors, in particular
grassroots communities and women. The sector should be given fresh incentives that
incorporate the different national and regional economic challenges to the extent possible.

XXXIX
Following consultations with civil society representatives, the rural area was selected as
the focus for Bank operations since this strategy aims to reduce inequalities between the
country’s regions. This choice has been confirmed by the Government, which considers that
rural areas are more affected by poverty (67.7%) compared to urban areas (35.4%) and
Conakry (27.4%). The map of the country’s 10 agri-hubs was used to identify a priority site for
the agrifood processing area (APA) based on the following criteria: (i) high population and
consumption density within a 100 km radius; (ii) high production potential of the country’s
biggest import; (iii) a dense network of connections between production and consumption
areas; and (iv) the existence of other private investors in the area (which can create economies
of scale). Based on these activities, Agrihub D (Boké-Fria-Télimélé-Gaoual-Koundara) was
selected. Agrihub D’s selection was also linked to the comparative advantages in terms of
studies conducted, development of the financial system, road and rail transport networks, and
telecommunications resources that will ensure the rapid implementation of APA activities.

Crosscutting aspects linked to fragility, the environment, climate change, gender

mainstreaming and youth unemployment were discussed with civil society. Industrial
production and artisanal mining feed some communities but degrade the environment. The civil
society representatives highly appreciated the Bank’s flexibility that took the country’s fragile
status into account, thus ensuring a rapid response to the EVD epidemic. Civil society will
continue to count on the Bank to take into account the fragility lens in its implementation of
CSP 2018-2022. Civil society advocated the need to consider the possibility of designing Bank
operations around contexts linked to fragility, economic and financial governance, natural
resource conservation, gender mainstreaming and youth employment. The Bank recognised that
coverage of crosscutting issues will help to guide its financial interventions more effectively.

Consultations with Technical and Financial Partners (TFPs)

During the CSP preparation, the Bank held discussions with TFP representatives on
pockets of fragility in the country and the need to strongly support the Government in
financing its National Economic and Social Development Plan, 2016-2020. The discussions
followed up on the promises of the consultative group organised by the Government in Paris
from 16 to 17 November 2017. The TFPs confirmed the success of the Consultative Group in
terms of pledges. The transformation of commitments obtained from the TFPs in Paris into
development projects is a top priority for the Government. The memorandum of understanding
between China and the Government to finance infrastructure projects in Guinea for USD 20
billion is under consideration. Moreover, the outcomes of the Paris consultative group with
financing pledges of US$ 21 billion will not be concretised without deliberate actions by the
Guinean Government in view of the lack of project studies and weak institutional and human
capacity.

Discussions with the TFPs confirmed that agricultural and agribusiness value chains
remain weak. Guinea is a net importer of agricultural and agribusiness products. The high
growth potential of agribusiness subsectors in which the Government has comparative
advantages requires Government and TFP support. Similarly, the low level of agricultural
productivity and market share of local agro-food products means that Guinea has become a net
food importer.

The partners pointed out several potential areas for collaboration. They will be able to
benefit from co-financing opportunities, particular in the agricultural sector (World Bank, FAO,
IFAD, UNDP, and IsDB), energy (EU, World Bank, Chinese Cooperation and IsDB), transport
(EU, IsDB, World Bank), environment (EU and KFW) and governance (AFD, EU and the

XL
World Bank). Furthermore, collaboration with local focus groups such as those of the EU,
UNDP, IMF and the World Bank, will underscore the Bank’s commitment to strengthen
analytical work and produce knowledge on the country.

The TFPs discussed the weakness of power transmission and distribution infrastructure
as well as the poor management of existing infrastructure. The country’s challenges in this
area require strong TFP support. A low energy access rate impedes sustainable growth. Thus,
taking into account the structure of the Guinean economy, its comparative advantages and
PNDES priorities, the discussions with the TFPs agreed that AfDB’s operations strategy for
Guinea over the 2018-2022 period would take into account the need to improve energy access.
This option was reconfirmed by the authorities and other stakeholders at the public synthesis
and validation meeting.

Discussions on complementarity with the other TFPs also confirmed the selection of
Agrihub D and the rice subsector to close the country’s negative food trade gap. The World
Bank, AFD, IsDB, FAO, IFAD, BADEA, OFID, Japan and China have several projects
concerning a number of agricultural crops over the next five years and involving 10 agrihubs
in Guinea. AfDB is interested in Agrihub D, which mainly grows rice and which alone accounts
for 18% of the country’s cultivated area. No agribusiness unit has so far been installed in the
hub to process local products. Rice processing is carried out on an artisanal scale and mostly
by women. For those APAs, in addition to the rice subsector, several value chains can be
developed, including the processing of cashew nuts, market garden crops, fruit, livestock
products, as well as other products retained for youth and women’s entrepreneurship. It was
concluded that the site for establishing the agri-park and the area covered by the APAs will be
more closely specified in consultation with the other TFPs, depending on the results of the PPF
studies conducted by the Bank.

Following discussions with the TFPs, it was concluded that economic and sector work will
be carried out in collaboration with the Government and TFPs. This approach will help to
strengthen dialogue and ensure harmonisation of the points of view of the different
stakeholders. It will also result in the sharing of policy and strategy documents in a number of
sectors to close the gap in analytical knowledge required to implement the reforms.

The Bank’s exchanges with the TFPs covered the need for a crosscutting approach to
economic/financial governance and capacity building. This approach would enable the
central government to release the critical resources required to finance the following two
priority areas for the Bank’s intervention: (i) improved access to energy; and (ii) the
development of agricultural and agribusiness value chains. The discussions also focused on
strengthening the Ministry of Planning, and the mainstreaming of fragility and resilience issues
in all operations implemented to achieve the outcomes of PNDES 2016 – 2020 and CSP 2018
– 2022.

XLI
Annex 16: LIST OF PERSONS CONTACTED
GOVERNMENT – LIST OF PERSONS CONTACTED

Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation

No. Surname and First Names Function
1 DIALLO Kanny Minister
2 Guilavogui PEMA Secretary-General
3 CONDE Moussa Ben National Director (DNIP)
4 DIAKHABY Oumarba Deputy National Director (DNIP)
5 KABA Aboubacar Director-General – INS
6 CAMARA Elhadj Salifou National IP Programming Director
7 SANO Mohamed National Population and Development Director
8 TINGUIANO Frederick Soule Economic Advisor
9 TOURE Abdoulaye Planning and Macro-management Advisor
10 BAH Maimounatou Division Manager (DNOI)
11 BAH Mamounatou DNOI/MPCI
12 BAH Mamounatou Balde DNOI/MPCI
13 BANGOURA Mamadouba Pazo DNIP/MPCI
14 BARRY Amadou Djoulde DNIP/MPCI
15 BARRY Ibrahima DNIP/MPCI
16 CAMARA Amara Research Officer (DNOI)
17 CAMARA Sayon Assistant GS/MPCI
18 CONTE Fatoumata Communication Officer
19 COUMBASSA Mohamed Lamine DNIP/MPCI
20 DELAMOU Jacob PCEU Monitoring and Evaluation Specialist
21 DIALLO Abdourahmane Assistant GS/MPCI
22 DIALLO Aboubacar Division Manager (DIFI)
23 DIALLO Aliou DM-Programming (DNIP)
24 DIALLO Amadou Bobo DNIP/MPCI
25 DIALLO Elhadj M. Sombili DNIP/MPCI
26 DIALLO Fatoumata DNIP/MPCI
27 DIALLO Salim PCEU Coordinator
28 KEBE Hadja Diaka Division Manager (DNIP)
29 KEITA Bobo DNIP/MPCI
30 KOLIE Jérôme Research Officer (DNIP)
31 KOUROUMA Aboubacar Division Manager (DNIP)
32 LENO Emilie Bernadette Executive Secretary SP-SRP
33 SAVANE Idrissa Tall DM-Programming and Financing (DNIP)
34 TRAORE Mariama Bamba DNI Section Head

Ministry of Budget
No. Surname and First Names Function
1 KABA Sekou Advisor
2 DIAWARA Mamady Bamba Principal Advisor (DNI)
3 TOURE Mamoudou Assistant
4 BARRY Mamadou Assistant
5 BARRY Oumar 3 DNB/MB
6 ARIBOT Karim Assistant to Director (DNI)
7 TOURE Aboubacar Assistant (DNI)

Ministry of Economy and Finance

1 LAMA Johachim Secretary-General
2 CONDE Lancine National Director (DNEEP)
3 KOULIBALY Mamady Consultant (CTSP)
4 DOUMBOUYA Gnouma Mamadou Investment Advisor
5 BAH Alhassane AFO – PERSIF PROJECT

Administration and Control of Major Projects and Public Works –ACGPMP

XLII
1 SOMPARE Aamara DG CPMP
2 CAMARA Laye S. ACGPMP
3 BALDE Ibrahima Bodie Principal Advisor
4 YANSANE Alkaly Daouda DIR. BCEP

Ministry of Pre-University Education and Civic Education

No. Surname and First Names Function
1 BARRY Aminata (BSD)
2 CAMARA Souleymane BSD/MENA

Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research

1 DIALLO Abdoul Karim DG/BSD/MESRS
2 SOW Adama 2 Assistant (BSD)
3 BAH Mamadou Cellou (BSD)
Ministry of Technical Education, Vocational Training, Employment and Labour
1 TRAORE Kalil Division Manager
2 DIALLO Diariatou Deputy Director

Ministry of Health and Public Hygiene

1 SOUARE Kabine Cooperation Advisor

Ministry of Social Action, the Advancement of Women’s and Children’s Issues

1 CAMARA Ibrahima Department Head (BSD)
2 CAMARA Alpha Director-General BSD
3 DOUMBOUYA Mamadou Cellou Head of Monitoring-Evaluation Department

Ministry of Agriculture
No. Surname and First Names Function
1 CONTE Nfamara Secretary-General
2 TOURE Mohamed Lamine DNA
3 KEITA Hassane DGA/BSD
4 BALDE Atigou Division Manager (BSD)
5 BALDE Atigou DM/SE/BSD
6 MANSARE Bernard Dep. DG/ANPROCA
7 BAMBA Djiba Legroro Division Manager BSD
8 BARRY Oumou Salamata SH.EP - BAHA/DNGR
9 OULARE Thierno Souleymane Research Officer BSD
10 NAGAI Koji Technical Assistant
11 BAH Abdoul Chief Accountant
12 LEROY Jean Technical Assistant
13 DIAWARA Sekou Monitoring-Evaluation
14 SAKHO Yaya DG SENASOL

Ministry of Livestock and Animal Production

1 CAMARA Felix Edouard Chief of Staff
2 MANE Sory Principal Advisor
3 DIALLO Boubacar B-DNPIA Project Coordinator
4 BALDE Abdoualye DM-DNHP
5 BOCOUM Ousmane DM-BSD

Ministry of Environment and Forests

1 BALDE Assiatou Minister
2 SIDIBE Seydou Bari Secretary-General
3 BOCOUM Ousmane Koumbia BSD/MEPA
4 DIALLO Mamadou Ilias BSD/MEEF
5 MAGASSOUBA Bakary OGUIPAR/MEEF

XLIII
Ministry of Energy and Water Resources
No. Surname and First Names Function
1 SANFINA Sekou Secretary-General
2 BARRY Rouguiatou BSD/MEH
3 CISSOKO Cheikh N’fall SH- Energy Regulations

Guinean Water Company

1 CAMARA Moussa Aboubacar
2 KEITA Kadidja
3 KONATE Bangaly
4 KAKORO Mamady
5 SAGNO Foromo Denis
6 LAMAH Victor Emmanuel
7 KEITA Abdoulaye
8 DANSOKO Bafode
DEPI/SEG/MEH
Dep. Director SEG
PER, PREREC and CLSG-ER Project Coordinator
Guinea-Mali Interconnection Project Coordinator
Dep. DG-AFD - SOUAPITI KALETA
KALETA/SOUAPITI Project
CLSG Project Coordinator
OMVG

National Water Point Development Service

1 BALDE Boubacar Talibe AFD/PAEPA/BT
2 CAMARA Amadou Lamine Administrative and Financial Director
3 DEM Malick Deputy Director-General

Ministry of Public Works

1 CAMARA Hadja Oumou
2 KABA Bakary
3 SOMPARE Malick
4 SANGARE Kaba
5 CAMARA Saa Yolande
6 TRAORE Souleymane
7 KABA Sangaré
Minister
National Infrastructure Director
BSD Director-General
National Director for National Roads
National Road Maintenance Director
Director-General of Road Maintenance Fund
National Director for National Roads

Ministry of Transport
1 SOUMAH Ibrahima Deputy National Director
2 FOFANA Cheick BSD Director-General

Ministry of Industry and SME

No. Surname and First Names Function
1 SYLLA Alseny Secretary-General
2 KOIVOGUI Djanka Principal Advisor
3 DIALLO Mamadou Saidou DG BSD
4 YOMBOUNO Emile Dep. DG BSD

Ministry of Trade
1 DIALLO Hadja Zenab PPDPB (CNP/CFC) Coordinator
2 BANGOURA Houssein BSD
3 BANGOURA Houssein BSD
4 DIALLO Hadja Zenab CNP-CAC/MC

Guinean Private Investment Promotion Agency

1 CURTIS Gabriel DG – APIP
2 CONDE Fatoumata SH BUSINESS CLIMATE SECTION.

PRIVATE SECTOR – LIST OF PERSONS CONTACTED

XLIV
No. SURNAME AND FIRST
FUNCTION STRUCTURE
NAMES
1 Sékou KEITA CEO SK International
2 Kerfalla CAMARA CEO Guicopres GROUP
3 Mamadou TRAORE Directorate-General Laham Industrie
4 Issa KANTE Directorate-General CODE-SUCRE
5 Guy Laurent FONDJO Director and General Manager Afriland First BANK
6 Ibrahim TAHER CEO TAFAGUI
7 Kalilou BARO Directorate-General ENACOF
8 Kerfalla CAMARA CEO Guicopres GROUP
9 Djenaba Oury DIALLO Relationship Manager ECOBANK
10 Thierno DIALLO Legal Director BOLLORE (Transport & Logistics)
11 Mohamed KAGNASSY CEO West wind Ltd-Guinea

CIVIL SOCIETY – LIST OF PERSONS CONTACTED

No. Surname and First Names Title Full Name of Body

National Council for Guinean Civil Society
1 Kourouma Dansa Chair Organisations
National Platform for Citizens United for
2 Sano Chair Development
Coalition of Guinean Women/Girls for Dialogue,
3 Traoré Makalé Chair Peace Consolidation and Development
4 N'Diaye Malick Chair National Chamber of Mines of Guinea
5 Diallo Mamadou Bobo Chair National Chamber of Agriculture of Guinea
6 Baldé Abdourahamane Chair Youth Parliament of Guinea
7 Keita Ousmane Chair Consumers’ Union of Guinea
8 Keita Ismael Chair Guinean Employers’ Association
9 Kaba Ansoumane Chair National Employer’s’ Council of Guinea
10 Traoré Aissata Gnouma Chair Employer’s/ Federation of Guinean Enterprises
11 Dia Madani Executive Secretary Guinean Private Sector Consultation Platform
12 Fondjo Guy Laurent Representative Guinean Association of Banking Professionals

XLV
TFPs – LIST OF PERSONS CONTACTED

No. Surname & First Function Institution

Names
1 AUBRAS Patricia Director AFD
2 YASUKO Inone Cooperation Officer Embassy of Japan
3 MUIYAMA Abdoul Outgoing Economist World Bank
4 DIALLO Ibrahima Country program officer IFAD
Tanou
5 YAMAZAHI Hitomi Official JICA
6 SASAKI Miwa Technical Advisor JICA/MPCI
7 SEWING Philipp Resp. for AfDB issues Ministry of Foreign Affairs/Germany
8 ABBA Mohamed Economic Advisor UNDP
9 DIALLO Mamadou Country Economist UNDP
10 SMET Veerle Operations Officer EU
11 Dr Joseph Ki-Zerbo Representative UNICEF
12 Lionel Laurens Director UNDP
13 Séraphine Wakana Resident Representative UNDP
14 SULEMANE Jose Resident Representative IMF
15 DIALLO Hassane Country Economist IMF
16 BOUREL Touré Economist World Bank

XLVI
Annex 17: Guinea – Energy Sector Profile

INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK

The Ministry in charge of Energy through the National Directorate of Energy (DNE) is
responsible for the development and implementation of policies and strategies for the
development of the energy sector in Guinea. It is also responsible for developing and
monitoring the enforcement of energy regulations as well as promoting the national energy
potential. The Energy Regulatory Authority, set up in 2018, is responsible for regulating public
electricity services. La Société Électricité de Guinée (EDG) is the main operator in the
electricity sector. EDG is a limited company with public participation created in December
2001 and tasked with providing the public service, in terms of the production, transmission and
distribution of electricity. The Guinean Rural Electrification Agency (AGER), set up in 2013
and operational only since 2017, promotes and coordinates activities in favor of electrification
in rural and peri-urban areas. The energy sector is open to independent producers that generate
and sell electricity to the sole distributor EDG.

POLICY

The Government’s energy policy is outlined in its 2012 Energy Sector Development Policy
Letter (LPDSE). The strategic objectives of the Government's energy policy are to: (i) make
available quality energy at a competitive cost; (ii) increase the access of most inhabitants to
modern energy by raising the national electricity access rate from 12% in 2012 to 80% in 2025
and then to 100% in 2030; (iii) reduce dependence on fossil fuels through the development of
national renewable energy resources for grid-based electricity, mini-hydro and some
unconventional energies to replace equipment running on motors thermal; (iv) develop at least
20 mini-hydro sites (out of 130 identified) by 2025 in the form of PPPs or community projects;
(v) disengage the State from the commercial and competitive activities of the energy sector;
(vi) open the sector to competition with the development of independent companies for the
production and distribution of electricity; and (iv) integrate Guinea into the regional market of
West Africa and develop sub-regional trade.

POTENTIAL

The hydroelectric potential is estimated at 6,000 MW, distributed throughout the national
territory for a guaranteed energy supply of 19,300 GWh/year, of which only a fraction (about
6 %) has been developed, with among others the Garafiri and Kaleta power stations and Samou's
system. This potential could power a large part the West African sub-region, if it were to be
efficiently exploited. In terms of solar energy, the average annual irradiation is estimated at 4.8
kWh / m²j. The average annual duration of sunshine hours varies between 2000 hours (Conakry)
and 2700 hours (Kankan). As for wind potential, the average annual wind speeds, observed in
Maritime Guinea and Middle Guinea, are between 2 and 4 m/s, which is data favorable for
pumping wind turbines. The biomass currently used in Guinea is traditional energy and mainly
includes firewood and charcoal. The available estimates of Guinea's forested area are estimated
at 13 million hectares and the wooded savannah area has 7.5 million hectares of land on an area
of 24.5 million hectares. Oil exploration has not provided definitive results.

XLVII
PRODUCTION

EDG's installed capacity is 203.85 MW. In synergy with private producers, Guinea's installed
production capacity is 593.45 MW (thermal: 226.4 MW, hydropower 367.05 MW) of which
458 MW (77.2%) currently available for demand at the peak of 295 MW in 2016. Since the
implementation of the recovery plan for the electricity sector, the energy produced has steadily
increased from 654.13 GWh in 2013 to 1531.5 GWh in 2016, an increase of 134% in three
years. The mix of electricity production in 2016 is characterized by a ratio of 70% for the
production of hydraulic origin against 30% for energy of thermal origin. Although supply is in
surplus on the interconnected grid of Lower Guinea, the balance between electricity supply and
demand is not generally guaranteed. The African Development Bank and other donors have
financed a major electricity transmission line project that crosses the two main regions of
Guinea not yet served to link Mali. The power plants (mainly thermal as well as some
hydroelectric power stations) are old and the availability rate is less than 30%. Their renovations
are underway and better management will increase the power available.

A number of private operators are involved in the production of electricity. The Chinese
company CWE is in charge of the development of the Kaléta hydropower plant (240 MW) and
has been operating since its commissioning in 2015. The AON Group signed with the GdG two
agreements for the completion and operation of the Kaloum 1 & 2 (24 MW & 26 MW) and
Kipé (50 MW) plants in December 2014 and February 2015, respectively. AISI signed a
contract with the GdG and the EDG in December 2016 for the rehabilitation, operation and
maintenance of the Kaloum 3 (44 MW) thermal power plant for a period of 10 years, but with
no obligation for EDG to purchase the production after the first 5 years. The Guinean Energy
(GDE) signed with the GdG in January 2017 a power purchase contract of 40 MW in Kaloum
on 50 MW installed for a period of 2 years. The plant currently produces only between 34-36
MW. In addition, following a Management Contract signed in July 2015 for a period of 48
months, the VEOLIA / SEURECA Group intervened to strengthen EDG by providing expertise
on several key functions, to help it recover internally and improve its technical, commercial and
financial performance.

TRANSPORT ET DISTRIBUTION

The transmission structures consist of 225 kV, 110 kV, and 60 kV interconnected voltage lines
and associated substations. The only double-dash 225 kV line is the one that ensures the
transmission of the Kaléta production to the Manéah substation, with a total length of 232 km
and 2 associated stations. The 14 lines of 110 kV are those used to carry the output of the
hydroelectric plants of Garafiri, Grandes Chutes, Donkéa, and the lines connecting the Manéah
substation to the transport network of the Conakry zone. They accumulate 611 km and 8
associated substations. The 3 60 kV lines originate from the Grandes Chutes plant and the
Manéah and Matoto substations, totaling 86 km and 6 associated substations.

The interconnection network under construction financed by donors including the Bank and
supported by the Exchange System, West African Power Pool (WAPP) will, in the medium
term, create an integrated transport network in Guinea, and in West Africa. These are the 225
kV regional interconnection projects whose commissioning is expected by 2019-2022, namely:
1) Power grid interconnection project of the countries of the Development Organization the
Gambia River (OMVG); (2) Interconnection Project for the Power Grids of Côte d'Ivoire,
Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea (CLSG); 3) Guinea-Mali Electricity Interconnection Project.
XLVIII
The distribution of electrical energy is on the one hand, in medium voltage (MV), with voltage
levels of 20; 15 and 6.6 kV and on the other hand in low voltage (LV) at 0.4 kV. The MV
network is 1,041.5 km long while the LV network is 2,692.3 km long.

The total volume of energy produced in the country was 1595 GWh in 2016 for a volume of
energy sold of 1003 GWh, an overall loss rate (technical and non-technical) of 37.1%. This is
a major challenge for the country. Since 2012, efforts to rehabilitate and densify the distribution
network have been undertaken and significant external financing mobilized. The Bank
financed, between 2011 and 2013, alongside other donors, two projects for the rehabilitation
and extension of distribution networks in Conakry and then a project to extend the electricity
grid in rural areas.

The operation of rural mini-grids is encouraged by a subsidy mechanism. Between 2005 and
2017, about 45 rural operators were created. In all, almost 14,000 connections to mini-grids
have been made, but less than 60% are active.

Despite these efforts, Guinea is in the last quintile in the Getting Electricity category. It ranks
at 159th place out of 190 countries according to the Doing Business 2018, with a drop of 40
places from 2012 to 2018. Guinea has the worst rating in terms of reliability of supply and
transparency of tariff, albeit its rates are among the lowest in Africa.

TARIFF POLICY

Electricity tariffs are set by joint decrees by the Minister of Energy and the Minister of Economy
and Finance. The post-payment rates in effect since June 1, 2008 were adjusted in April 2018.
The pre-payment rates in effect since September 2016 have remained unchanged. The average
price of electricity per kWh is 0.02 USD for residential customers. The rate is 0.20 USD/kWh
on average for public administration, trade and industries, and 0.30 USD/kWh for international
institutions. The cost of thermal generation is currently between 0.10 and 0.20 USD/kWh. The
hydroelectric generation cost varies between 0.08 and 0.15 USD/kWh. Overall, electricity is
sold at an average price of GNF 800 (less than $0.1) per kWh, while the average cost is about
GNF 2700 per kWh ($0.3), the deficit being financed by subsidies from the Government.

ACCES TO ENERGY

Guinean energy consumption is largely based on wood and charcoal (78% of energy
consumption), imported petroleum products (18%), and electricity (4%). About 97% of
households use firewood or charcoal as a source of energy for cooking, compared to about 95%
in 1996. This is a strong sign of immense pressure on forest resources.

The average rate of access to electricity in the country is 28%, including 11% of illegal
connections, against an average access rate of 37% in sub-Saharan Africa. There are significant
disparities in access to electricity between regions. In rural areas, the access rate is still limited
to 7%.

XLIX
OUTLOOK

PNDES targets are to increase the rate of access to electricity from 24.7% in 2015 to 35% in
2020, as well as the rate of access to renewable energy from 1% in 2014 to 10% in 2020. PNDES
also plans to implement major hydropower projects including: Souapiti (515 MW) and
Poudaldé (90 MW) and participation in the process of interconnection of sub-regional power
grids. Thanks to this work, the country is already planning an installed capacity of 1330 MW
in 2022 which will generate 1927 GWh for local consumption and 1493 GWh for export. Also,
faced with the challenge of mastering the level of the overall loss rate (technical and non-
technical) which reached 37.1% in 2016, it is retained the objective to gradually reduce the
overall loss rate to 15% by 2025. With regard to structural reforms, the PNDES mainly plans
to restore the financial equilibrium of the EDG.

L
Annex 18: Note on the Agricultural and Agribusiness Sector in Guinea

In addition to its twelfth position in terms of fragility, the 2017 Human Development Report ranks
Guinea in 183rd position out of 188 countries. The poverty level remains high with a poverty rate
that rose from 41.9% in 2002 to 55.2% in 2012. About 80% of the Guinean population live in rural
areas where poverty is deepened by the infrastructure gap for production, basic social services and
market access. Poverty affects 64.7% of the rural population and 35% of the urban population.

The country has significant agro-ecological assets and potential including: (i) 300 km of coastline;
(ii) 6.2 million hectares of agricultural land, including 958,968 ha of irrigable land, only 30,200 ha
of which is irrigated; (iii) about 1125 water courses about 8 of which are sub-regional; and (iv)
pastoral and stockbreeding potential. Despite these assets and potential, and considerable efforts
made by the Government of Guinea since the liberalisation of the production sectors, the agricultural
sector still fails to meet the population’s food and nutrition needs. Moreover, 66.4% of farmers live
below the poverty line. The sector’s output is slow and, on average, contributed 18% to GDP over
the 2013-2015 period, 48% of which was for agriculture, 17% for stockbreeding, 13.7% for
silviculture and forests and 1.1% for fisheries. This sector also suffers from a low level of public
financing which fluctuated from 6.2% in 2014 to 2.7% in 2015, and to 4.6% of the general
government budget in 2016.

Guinean agriculture is mostly extensive, dominated by a traditional cropping system using very few
productive inputs and comprising small, poorly developed family holdings (averaging 3.17 ha). It is
highly dependent on rainfall for 95% of the sown areas. Production is mainly intended to meet 65%
of family food requirements. Productive performance is generally weak in food crop farming and
the 4.9% growth in plant production is primarily the result of a 3.6% extension of the cultivated area.
Different analyses have revealed that the inadequate contribution of agriculture to the country’s
economic and social development is due to three factors: (i) the productivity gap; (ii) lack of access
to promising markets; and (iii) the governance gap.

Yields per hectare are low and remain well below the level necessary to make agriculture the
country’s main engine of economic development. The average annual cereal yield remained constant
at 1.5 tonnes per hectare between 2005 and 2013, while the yield for groundnuts did not reach 1
ton/ha. These yields fall far short of their potential and the sub-regional average. Cassava yields were
also constant over the three periods (about 8 tons/hectare). This low productivity is linked to : (i)
poor water management (out of a potential of 751,563 hectares, only 69,868 ha have been developed,
i.e. 9.3 %, 3,764 hectares of which under total water control and 66,104 hectares under partial water
control); (ii) low use of high quality agricultural inputs and efficient, healthy plant material: it was
noted that less than 10% of farmed surfaces use high quality seeds and that the use of fertilisers does
not exceed 10 kg/yr/ha, which falls far short of the CAADP target of at least 50kg/ha by 2025; (iii)
the low level of mechanisation or access to poorly adapted equipment; and (iv) non-adherence to the
agricultural calendar due to lack of labour, and failure to take into account agricultural risks linked
mainly to climate change.

Furthermore, lack of access to promising domestic and external markets is caused by the following
three factors: (i) insufficient knowledge of agricultural product markets; (ii) a market access
infrastructure gap; and (iii) weak structuring of value chains. Except for rice for the sale of which
specific distribution areas exist, agricultural product markets are non-existent. For most crops, points
of sale are neither specialised nor structured, although informal spaces or points of sale are to be seen
along the national roads without any appropriate infrastructure. In the case of products derived from
certain cash crops, transactions are solely between specialised companies and specialised producers.
However, in the Guinea Forest Region, a developed market for each of the following crops exists:

LI
cocoa beans, palm oil and coffee. In contrast, processing and conservation infrastructure is virtually
non-existent apart from the multifunctional platforms (MFP). This artisanal processing only covers
one quarter (1/4) of agricultural production. This underscores the urgent need to establish such
platforms and improve existing services. In addition, mini-rice mills are being set up in the large rice-
growing basins. Currently there are no larger-scale modern industrial units, with the exception of the
Guinean Palm Oil and Rubber Company (SOGUIPAH) and the Dabola oil mill for groundnuts. It is
also worth noting artisanal processing experiences, which should be capitalised on before
considering their replication. In the case of vegetables, the only existing high capacity conservation
infrastructure is for potatoes (cold storage).

These constraints encourage rural-urban migration and limit all economic development initiatives in
rural areas, impeding the supply of goods and services by central government nationwide. They also
exacerbate situations of exclusion in hinterland regions and of segments of the population. As regards
Guinea’s agricultural sector, the impact of climate change, the ageing of actors and food and nutrition
insecurity-related risks also constitute additional specific drivers of fragility. In this context it is
important to provide the population with the necessary infrastructure for the emergence and
strengthening of economic and socio-ecological economic resilience through agricultural
diversification, promotion of employment and youth entrepreneurship, the gender dimension and
greater involvement of non-State actors (in particular from the private sector).

The different strategies developed to reverse this trend, in particular include increased investment in
the agricultural sector and in production, marketing and processing infrastructure, promotion of
youth entrepreneurship and private sector involvement. It has become necessary to optimise the use
of cultivated areas in view of limited land resources, to provide value added to products and ensure
that households have regular income.

The strategies and programmes adopted provide an essential response for agricultural development
through support to production and processing activities, and improvement of the living conditions of
the population via value chain promotion and the creation of entrepreneurship opportunities for youth
and women. Thus, the PNDES 2016-2020, which is in keeping with the logic of the prospective
study Vision 2040 for a prosperous and emerging Guinea, focused on the agricultural sector to ensure
that: (i) the productivity of the primary sector is doubled between 2014 and 2020; (ii) food security
is guaranteed (reduce the incidence of food poverty from 18.2% in 2012 to 9.7% in 2020); and (iii)
sustainable agriculture is promoted. The four pillars will foster: (i) the promotion of good governance
in the service of sustainable development; (ii) sustainable and inclusive economic transformation;
(iii) inclusive development of human capital; and (iv) sustainable management of natural capital.

The Sector also has a favourable strategy framework, in particular the revised National Agricultural
Development Policy (PNDA 2016-2025) whose overall objective is to increase the agricultural
sector’s contribution to food security, nutrition and poverty reduction for the Guinean people by
boosting growth and agricultural trade through: (i) enhancing productivity; (ii) facilitating access to
high potential markets; and (iii) improving agricultural sector governance. Operationalization of this
strategic framework will be achieved through the implementation of: (i) the National Agricultural,
Food Security and Nutrition Investment Plan (PNIASAN); (ii) the Accelerated Food and Nutrition
Security and Sustainable Agricultural Development Plan (PASANDAD), which aims to accelerate
the execution of PNIASAN through four components: (a) Promotion of an enabling environment for
subsector development (promotion of strategic investments and the institutional framework); (b)
revitalisation of agricultural subsectors (structuring of actors and enhancement of agricultural
subsector performance); (c) promotion of nutrition and gender; and (d) sustainable natural resource
development. It was also agreed to intervene through the development of agrihubs based on potential
and the following priority subsectors:

LII
 Hubs Prefectures
A Boffa, Dubréka, Coyah, Forécariah
B Mamou, Dalaba, Kindia
C Labé, Pita, Tougué, Koubia, Mali,
Lélouma
D Boké, Fria, Télimélé, Guaoual, Koundara
E Faranah, Dabola, Dinguiraye
F Kankan, Kouroussa, Mandiana, Siguiri
G Macenta, Guéckédou, Kissidougou
H Beyla, Kérouané, Lola
I Nzérékoré, Youmou
Type of Crop/Livestock
Rice, banana, pineapple, citrus fruit, market garden
crops, oil palm
Rice, fruit crops, market garden crops
Maize, potato, fruit, market garden crops and fonio
Rice, cattle breeding
Rice, groundnut, cattle breeding
Rice, maize, yam, cassava, cotton, mango and market
garden crops
Rice, oil palm, rubber
Rice, cattle breeding
Rice, maize, oil palm, rubber, pig breeding

Rice is the stable food crop; the food gap is closed by annual imports of about 600,000 tonnes of
rice. The main subsector constraints are poor water management, the remoteness of production
areas, deterioration of production systems, especially mangrove swamps and the inner
mangrove zone due to problems of salinity and acidity, poor access to inputs and factors of
production, lack of access to new agricultural technologies, market access difficulties and weak
processing capacity. To resolve these difficulties, the Bank’s new operations will intervene by
modernising production systems, developing irrigation, opening up the production areas and
improving conservation, processing and marketing conditions with closer attention to value
chains, youth and women’s employment, nutrition and knowledge acquisition.

The maize subsector has potential to develop, employs about 100,000 farmers and produced
748,639 tons in 2016 with a low yield of 1,200 T/ha. Marketing outlets are important for the poultry
subsector for which demand is about 50,000 tonnes, and for brewing with demand of 15,000
tonnes.

Fonio is an important food crop not only for meeting domestic needs but also sub-regional demand
and external markets, thanks to its reputation as a recommended food product from a nutritional
standpoint. National production stood at 496,953 tonnes in 2016, i.e. 80% of the sub-region’s
production, with a yield of about 800 kg/ha. In addition to its low productivity, other constraints
face the fonio sub-sector, especially those linked to processing (pounding, de-husking and
cleaning).

Main interventions by development partners: Development aid is coordinated by the

Government of Guinea through the Coordination and Consultation Framework (CCC) at the
Office of the Permanent Secretary to the Prime Minister. In addition to the CCC, which is the
strategic coordination body between the Government and TFP, a Technical Monitoring
Committee (CTS) was established to strengthen inter-sector coordination and coordination of
Thematic Dialogue Groups (GTD) bringing together TFPs and Government representatives at
sector level. The World Bank is the leader of the Rural Development and Food Security
Thematic Group. The Bank, through COGN, is an active member of the CCC and some GTDs.
The key ongoing projects supported and with which the Bank should develop synergies are: (i)
in agricultural and industrial value chain development, the Hub G Agricultural Development
Support Project (PADAG –Abu Dhabi Fund), Family Farming, Resilience and Market Project
in Upper and Middle Guinea (AgriFARM - IFAD), the Guinea Integrated Agricultural
Development Project (PDAIG - WB), the Agricultural Sector Support Project (PASAG - WB)
and JICA technical assistance (Japan) for the promotion of the rice value chain; (ii) for youth
entrepreneurship, the Guinea Agricultural Services Project (PSAG/USAID) and the Youth
LIII
Socio-Economic Integration Support Programme (INTEGRA – ITC). Through PATAG,
financed by the World Bank, the master plans for irrigation schemes and access roads will help
to inventory and characterise potential and needs in terms of wetlands, plains, mangroves and
access roads, and provide the country with a database of infrastructure BDs to be prepared.

Main lessons: The following lessons are drawn from projects implemented by the Bank and other
partners in the sector, and will be reflected when mounting operations retained under this CSP:

i) Infrastructure construction must be based on socioeconomic feasibility studies and

surveys, and a participatory process involving the beneficiaries from the start of the
process to avoid conflicts, obtain full beneficiary commitment, and facilitate
investment ownership and enhancement.

ii) The establishment and selection of infrastructure sites must be made based on
clearly defined criteria, including the involvement of the communities concerned
from the start of the process to avoid conflicts, obtain full beneficiary commitment,
and facilitate investment ownership and enhancement.

iii) The rigorously prepared engineering designs, the selection of firms with proven
technical and financial capacity as well adequate supervision and control represent
guarantees that high quality and sustainable infrastructure will be obtained within
the stipulated timeframe and at affordable cost.

iv) Value chain promotion actions must be supported by rural grassroots organisations,
particularly women and youth associations, smallholder associations (SA) and
Economic Interest Groups (EIG). Support from enduring structures (NGOs and
central government services) constitutes a guarantee to improve the sustainability
of the actions undertaken.

v) The provision of infrastructure to support value chains, if unaccompanied by

capacity building and access to financing or an initial allocation proves highly
ineffective, with very limited impact.

vi) The intervention of partners on the ground, on common themes and for relatively
small financial amounts, requires strong synergy among the operations and the
search for geographic, strategic and operational complementarities.

vii) The mobilisation of counterpart funding must be carried out in compliance with the
financing agreements. Therefore, it must have a realistic but firm basis, and
allocated to activities that do not impede the achievement of objectives in the event
of difficulties in mobilising such funding.

LIV
Annex 19: Guinea – Bank’s Intervention Strategy for Governance under CSP 2018-2022

A. Governance Overview

1. Political and Democratic Governance: political governance in Guinea has progressed

over the past few years, after several decades marked by authoritarian regimes and
periodic coups d’état. The 2010 Presidential election won by Professor Alpha Condé
was the first democratic election in the country’s history. Despite some difficulties in
organising the ballot and accusations of fraud, the results were finally accepted by the
political class following much mediation. The re-election of the President in October
2015 was once again the subject of contestation, but less pronounced than in 2010.
Between 2010 and 2016, the Government and opposition signed several political
agreements to calm the political climate. These agreements resulted in the revision of
the electoral code in July 2017 and the organisation of municipal elections in February
2018. According to the Ibrahim Index of African Governance, the country’s score rose
from 39.4 in 2010 to 45.5 in 2016. Political tensions remain until now, since the
opposition is still awaiting implementation of certain provisions of the agreements, in
particular the establishment of the High Court of Justice and reform of the electoral
commission.

2. Governance and the justice system: With regard to rights and freedoms, Guinea has a
less than stellar past. The serious events of 28 September 2009 left an indelible mark.
An opposition rally organised in Conakry stadium to oppose the junta leader’s
candidacy for the presidential election was violently repressed by the army. According
to the UN, at least 156 people were killed and 109 women raped. Aware of the difficult
human rights situation in the country, the new authorities included among the priority
actions an inventory of human rights issues through national consultations allowing
each social category to express itself on the issue. To concretise this priority, a Ministry
of Human Rights and Civil Liberties was established in addition to the Ministry of
Justice. In April 2018, the Ministry of Justice signed an Order on the establishment,
organisation and operation of the Steering Committee to prepare the trial relating to
the events of 28 September 2009. It is planned to establish a mechanism to compensate
the victims. As a result of the action taken over the past ten years, the country’s human
rights situation has improved. According to the Ibrahim Index for African Governance,
the country made its greatest progress under the ‘Participation and Human Rights’
indicator, achieving a score of score of 47.9 in 2016 from 36.4 in 2009.

3. Corruption and Transparency: However, Guinea has faced problems of corruption for
several years and, until now, the situation has not improved. Since 2000, the country
has established bodies specifically dedicated to combating corruption. These bodies
are struggling to act efficiently mainly because of the weak institutional and legal
framework in which they have operated. The inefficient public administration is
undermined by cronyism. According to the 2017 edition of the Corruption Perceptions
Index of the NGO, Transparency International, the country is ranked 158th out of 180
countries with a score of 27/100. To address this situation, the National Anti-
Corruption Agency (ANLC) established in 2004, is working hard to reverse the trend
of deepening corruption. The Government had a Law enacted in July 2017 on the
prevention and eradication of corruption (Law No. L/041 adopted on 4 July 2017) and
established several regional branches of the ANLC. It has begun to prepare the
National Anti-Corruption Strategy and Action Plan.

LV
4. Concerning the extractive industries, Guinea adhered to EITI in April 2005 and
became a candidate country on 27 September 2007. The country has been EITI-
compliant since 2 July 2014. The next validation for Guinea, which will be carried out
in accordance with the EITI standard 2016, is planned before the end of 2018. Since
its adherence to EITI, Guinea has published 12 reports covering the 2005-2016 period.
The last report published covers the period from 1 January 2016 to 31 December 2016.

5. Business environment: Guinea has implemented major reforms over the past five years
to improve the business environment. These reforms were mainly focused on starting
a business; resolving insolvency; getting credit and getting electricity. The reforms
included: (i) the establishment of a one-stop-shop for starting a business, the reduction
of notary costs and minimum capital requirements; (ii) introduction of a new
conciliation procedure for firms in financial difficulty and a simplified preventive
settlement procedure for small enterprises; (iii) simplification of the procedure for
connecting new customers to the power grid; and (iv) amendment of the OHADA
Uniform Act organising securities to widen the range of collaterals that may be used
for credit guarantees. Despite these reforms, the business environment remains one of
the least attractive in Sub-Saharan Africa. According to the World Bank’s Doing
Business 2018 report, Guinea is ranked 153rd out of 190 countries with a score of 49.8
for distance to frontier. The regional average for Sub-Saharan Africa is 50.43.

6. Public finance management: In the area of public finance management, the authorities
have implemented major reforms since 2014, which led to the introduction of multi-
year budgeting, in particular with the preparation of the Multi-Year Budget
Programming Document (DPBP) and Medium-Term Expenditure Frameworks
(MTEF) at sector level from 2016. In March 2018, a Public Finance Management
(PFM) system using PEFA methodology was carried out with the support of IMF and
several TFPs. The assessment showed that between 2013 and 2018, the country made
considerable progress: (i) public finance transparency improved with better budget
documentation in annex to the Budget Acts; (ii) access by the public to budget
information has improved, marked by the publication of the citizen’s budget and the
performance of budgetary relations with local governments; (iii) budget review by the
National Assembly whose scope has been enriched by the first budget policy debate
based on the Multi-Year Budget Programming Document (DPBP), 2018-2020; and
(iv) fairly transparent management of public procurement following the use of
competitive bidding for over 80% of public contracts awarded.

7. However, the PFM system has major weaknesses, in particular those concerning
budget reliability. In general, the weaknesses are mainly more pronounced in the
following areas: (i) budget reliability in view of the highly significant differences
between executed and approved budgets; (ii) accounting and reporting because of the
long delays in the recording and reconciliation of central government accounting data;
and (ii) supervision and external auditing because of the non-existence of external
audit reports on management accounts and other financial statements. The new PFM
legal and regulatory framework remains mostly unapplied.

8. Public Investment Management (PIM) also displays considerable weaknesses. A

Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) conducted by IMF revealed that
the investment expenditure implementation rate had risen from 42% in 2015 to 75%
in 2017, but that public investment management remained inefficient in comparison
with some of the country’s comparators. Guinea’s efficiency gap in relation to the

LVI
 efficient frontier in comparison with the most efficient countries stands at about 50%.
This gap is wider than the average efficiency gap, which is 40% for Sub-Saharan
African countries and about 30% for all the world’s countries. PIM efficiency in
Guinea is affected by difficulties in planning, allocating and executing investments.
Guinea has signed several PPP contracts by direct negotiation, while institutional
supervision of the contracts has not yet been finalised. This creates potential financial
risks that are not assessed. Most of the large projects financed from own resources in
the 2017 and 2018 budgets were not subject to economic and financial assessment.
Their selection was also not rigorous, hence the low quality. The procedures for fixing
multi-year annual ceilings for capital expenditure per ministry are not yet effective.
This weakens effective prioritisation. The situation is compounded by the separate
holding of budget conferences on operating budgets and investment budgets, which
gives rise to anomalies on expenditure classification. Since investment expenditure is
not adequately protected during budget execution, the funding of ongoing projects may
be discontinued in favour of new projects. The budget provides a framework for
recording maintenance expenditure. However, there is no standard methodology for
estimating and programming such expenditure. This results in under-budgeting and in
fine the deterioration of assets. Procurement and cash flow management plans are
insufficiently harmonised and no cut-off date is set for the effective payment to the
Central Bank of the Republic of Guinea (BCRG), resulting in payment delays and
slowing down project implementation. Several TFPs, including the Bank, provide the
country with support to improve the Planning/Programming, Monitoring and
Evaluation (PPME) chain, the establishment of an appropriate framework for PPP
management and central government’s financial assets.

B. The Bank’s Intervention Strategy

9. The pillars of the Bank’s strategy for the 2018-2022 period are: (i) energy access
improvement; and (ii) agricultural and industrial value chain development. A first
glance shows that four of the seven areas of intervention concern governance and
capacity building. The Bank’s governance strategy will be aligned on the CSP Pillars
and the Bank’s Governance Strategic Framework and Action Plan (GAP II), 2014-
2018 focused on the following three pillars: (it) public sector and economic
management (PSEM); and (ii) sector governance; and (iii) investment and business
climate.

10. The Bank will concentrate its interventions in two main areas; (i) capacity building in
public finance management and development projects; (ii) institutional and
governance capacity building in the energy, mining and agricultural/agribusiness
sectors.

IA (intervention area) 1: Capacity building in public finance management and

development projects

11. The Bank will capitalise on the ongoing support to PAPEGM and to PARCA-GPI, and
will jointly finance a new institutional support project with AFD. Through PAPEGM
and PARCA GPI, the Bank built the capacity of structures in tax and non-tax revenue
mobilisation, strategic planning and public investment management. These support
activities will be continued and supplemented under the new operation that will focus
in particular on capacity building as regards the macroeconomic framework,
management of the PPME chain through support for all crosscutting structures and

LVII
 sector ministries (energy, transport, education, agriculture), management of PPP and
central government’s financial assets, and public debt management.

IA 2: Institutional and governance capacity building in the energy, mining and

agricultural/agribusiness sectors

12. The Bank has already provided mining governance support through PAPEGM and
PARCA-GPI. Therefore, the Bank financed the revision of 18 mining contracts that
allowed central government to increase its revenue from the sector. The Bank also
provides support to the one-stop shop for mining licences and permits. These
operations will continue through PARCA-GPI’s support for integrated mining
projects, capacity building for local SMEs to enable them to expand their interventions
in the sector, and management of environmental aspects, biodiversity and gender
mainstreaming.

13. In the energy sector, the Bank’s interventions will comprise a Reform Support
Programme and Capacity Building Components of investment projects. The Bank will
provide support to the Government to review the electricity sub-sector regulatory
framework in order to adapt it to the national and regional context, and make it
attractive for private investment. In this regard, the Bank will finance the revision of
the legal and regulatory framework for energy, rural electrification and restoration of
EDG’s financial balance. The government is planning to transform the Decentralised
Rural Electrification Bureau (BERD) into the Guinean Rural Electrification Agency
(AGER). The Bank will support the preparation of legal texts on the establishment of
the new structure as well as on the operationalization of the National Energy
Regulatory Agency. Stronger governance in the electricity sub-sector will enable the
country to make progress towards the attainment of SDG 7 that aims to ‘Ensure Access
to Affordable, Reliable, Sustainable and Modern Energy for All’. In rural areas, the
access rate will rise from 7% in 2017 to 10% in 2020 and 18% in 2022.

14. The Bank will support agricultural sector transformation by building the capacity of
actors through projects. To guarantee improved yields on large areas beyond family
plots (under one hectare), the Bank will provide support in the following areas: (i)
standardisation and adoption of international standards both for agricultural raw
materials and finished products from agricultural processing plants; and (ii) promotion
of youth employment in the sector through the determination of sub-sectors, curricula
and trades, and building the capacity of local establishments in terms of equipment and
premises. The Bank will assist the National Institute of Statistics (INS) to improve the
country’s capacity to produce basic and impact data in sectors of intervention.

LVIII
Annex 20: Main Analytical Works Consulted

1. AGUIPE, Basic data of agricultural enterprises, Guinea, 2014.

2. Aide-mémoire of the African Development Bank’s mission to Guinea, Guinea –

Country Strategy Paper (CSP 2018-2022) and Combined CSP (2012-2016/2017)
Completion Report and Country Portfolio Performance Review (CPPR) 2017 Abidjan,
March 2018, 20 pages.

3. Annex, Revised Matrix of Agricultural Reforms, Guinea, 2018, 5 pages.

4. African Development Bank, Aide-mémoire of the pre-appraisal mission, Niger Basin

Integrated Development and Climate Change Adaptation Programme (PIDACC/BN)
- Guinea Component, Abidjan, April 2018, 12 pages.

5. African Development Bank, Jobs for Youth in Africa Strategy, Regional Ministerial
Conferences in Youth Employment and Entrepreneurship in Africa, Abidjan, May
2017, 116 pages.

6. World Bank, Guinea-Aide-mémoire, Sector Identification Mission for the IBRD

Enclave Project, preparation of the Guinea Integrated Agricultural Development
Project (PDAIG), implementation support for the Agricultural Sector Project
(PASAG) and validation of the Agricultural Sector Review, Washington, January
2018, 42 pages, including Annexes.

7. World Bank, Ministry of Industry, Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprises, National

Policy Letter on small- and medium-sized enterprises, July 2013, Conakry, 24 pages.

8. IBRD, Guinea-Aide-mémoire, Pre-identification Mission, IBRD-Enclave Project,

PASANDAD Support, Cash Crops Development Component, Conakry, June 2017, 11
pages.

9. CASTALIA, National Electricity Access Improvement Programme in Guinea, Phase

3, Investment Prospectus and Road Map, Conakry, January 2017, 138 pages.

10. CASTALIA, National Electricity Access Improvement Programme in Guinea, Phase

3, Investment Prospectus and Road Map, Conakry, January 2017, 138 pages

11. Electricité de Guinée (EDG), Recovery Plan, Conakry, May 2017, 135 pages.

12. Republic of Guinea, Annexes, Hydropower Potential and Projects (July 2011),
Transmission and Interconnection Grids, Waterway Network and Main Sites, Network
Map of Guinea, 4 pages.

13. National Institute of Statistics, Report on Limited Poverty Assessment Survey (ELEP),
Lomé, 2012,

14. National Institute of Statistics, Report in Multi-indicator Cluster Survey (MICS-Palu),

Conakry, 2016

15. African Development Bank, Country Team, Project Appraisal Report - Boké-Quebo
Road Improvement Project, Abidjan, March 2018, 43 pages + 114 pages of Annexes .

LIX
16. Ministry of Agriculture, Study on the Formulation of the Guinean Agriculture
Transformation Support Programme, Diagnostic Report, Conakry, April 2018, 80
pages.

17. Republic of Guinea, Ministry of Agriculture, Study on the Formulation of the Guinean
Agriculture Transformation Support Programme, Formulation Document, April 2018,
51 pages.

18. Republic of Guinea, Ministry of Agriculture, Study on the Formulation of the Guinean
Agriculture Transformation Support Programme, Diagnostic Report, April 2018, 80
pages.

19. Republic of Guinea, Ministry of Agriculture, Study on the Formulation of the Guinean
Agriculture Transformation Support Programme, Formulation Document, April 2018,
51 pages.

20. Ministry of Agriculture, Study on the formulations of a Youth Agricultural

Entrepreneurship Pilot Project, May 2018, 69 pages.

21. Ministry of Environment, National Biosecurity Framework, April 2005, 76 pages.

22. Ministry of Environment and Forests, National Environmental Policy, 2016 Edition,
145 pages.

23. Ministry of Industry, Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprises, SME Directory, 2017.

24. Republic of Guinea, Ministry of Energy and Water Resources/Electricité de Guinée

(EDG), Study on the Conakry Power Network Development Plan, Final Version of
Detailed Designs, December 2015, 48 pages.

25. Republic of Guinea, Ministry of Energy and Water Resources/Electricité de Guinée

(EDG), Study on the Conakry Power Network Development Plan, Final Version of
Detailed Designs, December 2015, 48 pages.

26. Republic of Guinea, Ministry Delegate to Environment and Forests, UNDP-Guinea,

National Environmental Investment Plan (PNIE 2013-2017), Final Report, Conakry,
July 2013, 218 pages.

27. Republic of Guinea, Ministry Delegate to Environment and Forests, National

Desertification Control Action Plan, Updated Version, Conakry, August 2011, 111
pages.

28. Republic of Guinea, Ministry Delegate to Environment, National Sanitation Policy,

Conakry, April 2011, 114 pages.

29. Republic of Guinea, Ministries (4) responsible for (i) Agriculture, (ii) Livestock and
Animal Production, (iii) Fisheries, Aquaculture and Maritime Economics, and (iv)
Environment, and Forests. National Agricultural and Food and Nutrition Security
Investment Plan (PNIASAN 2018-2025), August 2017, 93 pages.

30. World Trade Organization, Guinea: Trade Policy Review, Geneva, April 2018, 29
pages.

LX
31. Republic of Guinea, National Economic and Social Development Plan (PNDES) for
Guinea, 2016-2020, Abidjan, 2016, 120 pages.

32. UNDP, GEF, Department of Ministry of Environment and Forests, Action Plan for
Implementation of the National Biological Diversity Plan, 2011-2020 and Aïchi
Objectives, Final Document, Conakry, August 2014, 162 pages.

33. Security Sector Reform, National Priority Action Strategy, May 2014, 114 pages.

34. Republic of Guinea, Summary of National Sustainable Management Strategy for the
Guinean Network of Protected Areas, 9 pages.

35. African Development Bank, Bank Group’s Strategy for Africa’s Industrialisation,
2016-2025, Abidjan, 2016, 129 pages.

36. African Development Bank, Draft Terms of Reference, Feasibility Studies for the
Establishment of Agrihubs in Guinea, Conakry, June 2018, 20 pages.

37. UNICEF, Ministry of Employment, Labour, Technical Education and Vocational

Training National Study on Youth and Women’s Employment Opportunities in the
Mining and Agricultural Sectors as part of the Peace Consolidation Exercise.
Provisional Report, Conakry, February 2014, 372 pages.

38. IMF, Guinea – Reform of Tax and Customs Administrations – Levers for moving
forward, Washington, June 2018, 51 pages.

39. IMF, Guinea: First Review of the Arrangement Under the Three-Year Extended Credit
Facility, IMF Country Report No. 18/234, Washington, June 2018, 136 pages.

LXI