MIXED BALANCE FOR 3Q20

Key Highlights
• The continuing appetite for countercyclical assets continues to push up
gold prices (Oz), which would benefit Mineros' profitability during the
quarter.
• GEB would present a rebound in its financial results, thanks to the
economic reopening in Peru that would boost the volumes of natural gas
sales by Cálidda.
• Despite the difficulties in the materials sector, the gradual recovery of
demand in Colombia and Central America would be favor the recovery
of operating margins of the cement companies.
• The good performance of household spending, added to the moderate
recovery of segments such as Retail Food, will continue to benefit Grupo
Nutresa's sales growth.

• The increase in claims, both in the Non life segments and life segments,
added to the lower contributions via the equity method of Bancolombia,
will put pressure on the profits of Grupo Sura.
• The end of some grace periods will result in an increase in provisions for
banks, negatively impacting their profits.
• Despite the recovery of the cement segment, the lower contribution from
other Grupo Argos investments such as Odinsa, would result in losses in
the quarter for the holding company.
• The recording of impairments would result in a historical net loss for CLH.

3
 MIXED BALANCE FOR THE QUARTERLY RESULTS
Sector Company Expectation Revenue EBITDA Net Income
COP 2,878 COP -136 COP -7
Bancolombia Negative
+3.4Y/Y ; -0.8% Q/Q NA Y/Y; NA Q/Q NA Y/Y; NA Q/Q
COP 2,952 COP 570 COP 287
Financials* Grupo Aval Negative
+4.3% Y/Y; -0.1% Q/Q -67.8% Y/Y; -33.4% Q/Q -61.3% Y/Y; -11.2% Q/Q
Banco de COP 2,079 COP 494 COP 305
Negative
Bogotá +13.3% Y/Y; +0.1% Q/Q -44.1% Y/Y; -12.1% Q/Q -46.2% Y/Y; -16.8% Q/Q

COP 11,919 COP 4,877 COP 772

Ecopetrol Neutral
-33.8% Y/Y; +41.2% Q/Q -41.0% Y/Y; +144.3% Q/Q -74.4% Y/Y; 2,988% Q/Q
COP 845 COP 270 COP 53
Celsia Neutral
-14.2% Y/Y; -5.2% Q/Q -15.8% Y/Y, -13.6% Q/Q -82.9% Y/Y; -28.1% Q/Q
Oil & Energy
COP 2,577 COP 1,620 COP 502
ISA Positive
Click to Positive
+30.7% Y/Y; -3.9% Q/Q
COP 1,261
+30.1% Y/Y; -12.5% Q/Q
COP 687
+23.6% Y/Y; -8.8% Q/Q
COP 542
GEB
access the -2.1% Y/Y; +9.1% Q/Q +18.4% Y/Y; +3.6% Q/Q +17.7% Y/Y; -6.2% Q/Q

company or Cemargos Neutral

COP 2,286
-8.6% Y/Y ; + 7.1% Q/Q
COP 460
+4.1% Y/Y ; +11.0% Q/Q
COP 34
+96.5% ; +189.8% Q/Q
sector of your Construction CLH Negative
USD 205
-16.3% Y/Y ; + 38.3% Q/Q
USD 40
- 12.4% Y/Y ; +37.3% Q/Q
USD -118
+3,230% Y/Y. ; N.A Q/Q
preference Conconcreto Neutral
COP 114
-52.8% Y/Y ; +20.5% Q/Q
COP 23
-24.1% Y/Y ; +48.0% Q/Q
COP 7
-57.6% Y/Y ; +208.5% Q/Q

USD 121 USD 52 USD 24

Mining Mineros Positive
+14.0% Y/Y ; -4.3% Q/Q +36.5% Y/Y ; -1.8% Q/Q +24.2% Y/Y ; +257.5% Q/Q

COP 2,749 COP 368 COP 141

Retail Nutresa Positive
+7.6% Y/Y; 3.1% Q/Q +6.9% Y/Y; -0.6% Q/Q +6.3% Y/Y; +0.8% Q/Q

COP 3,394 COP 845 COP -17

Grupo Argos Negative
-18.1% Y/Y ; +1.7% Q/Q -40.3% Y/Y; -5.5% Q/Q -105.8% Y/Y; -275.3% Q/Q
Holdings COP 105
Grupo Sura Negative COP 4,856 NA
-14.5% Y/Y ; -8.31% Q/Q -80.6% Y/Y ; -67.4% Q/Q

Figures in COP bn or USD mn for companies, according to the reporting

currency.* Banks: Operating profit instead of EBITDA.
 CORPORATE RESULTS CALENDAR

OCTOBER OCTOBER
D L M M J V S 27 Ecopetrol
28 CLH, Éxito
1 2 3
30 Grupo Nutresa
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
25 26 27 28 29 30 31

NOVEMBER NOVEMBER
4 Celsia
D L M M J V S
5 ISA
6 BVC
1 9 Conconcreto
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 10 Cemargos
11 Mineros
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
12 Grupo Argos, Bancolombia, Canacol Energy
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
13 Grupo Sura*, Corficolombiana*, Avianca*
22 23 24 25 26 27 28 17 Davivienda*
29 30 18 GEB, Grupo Aval
Holiday 19 Terpel
23 Banco de Bogotá
Company Report

*Estimated date
 Colombia: The reopening would favor income

Corredores Davivienda S:A comisionista de Bolsa del Banco Davivienda S:A

generation and recovery in the margins of local
companies. However, volumes remain below
pre-COVID numbers and the increased
competition will limit a faster recovery for
market leaders.
Colombia: Cement production and prices (var % Y/Y)
Cement prices (Δ%) Cement dispatches (Δ%)

Construction
30.0
20.0
10.0

& Building 0.0

-10.0

Materials -20.0
-30.0

Jun
Sep
Jun
Sep

Jun
Sep

Jun
Sep

Jun
Sep
Mar

Mar
Mar

Mar

Mar

Dec

Dec
Dec

Dec
2017 2018 2019 2020

EEUU: Given the hurricane season, demand for

concrete in states like Texas would have been
limited. However, the efficiencies implemented
throughout the year would allow maintaining
high margins.
Centroamérica: Except for Panama, the rest of
the operations in the region would register
good performance and a good rate of recovery.

6 Source: DANE, Bloomberg | Figures: Davivienda Corredores

 CEMEX LATAM HOLDINGS
Expected results: Negative

The recording of an impairment for USD 121.1 mm will

USD mm 3Q20E 2Q20 3Q19 Q/Q Y/Y result in a historical loss. However, excluding this effect
and despite the fact that volumes in some regions are
Revenue 205 148 245 38.3% -16.3%
still below the pre-COVID-19 records, the quarter would
EBITDA 40 29 46 37.3% -12.4% show an operational rebound, as a result of the
continuity in the savings plans.
Net Income -118 11 -4 N.A 3,230%

EBITDA
While the recovery in volumes has shown good
19.6% 19.7% 18.7% -14bps 88bps signs, increased competition would result in
Margin
Net Margin -57.8% 7.2% -1.5% -6,498bps -5,635bps
volume contractions in Colombia of ~8% YoY.
However, the increase in prices (+4% Q/Q), the
lower coal prices and the non-importation of
Clinker would favor the recovery in operating
margins.
To monitor: Panama would continue to show strong annual
• Unleveraging strategy. drops in sales, given that the reactivation
• Announcements about expectations of occurred only in part of September. However,
future impairments. the purchase of Clinker at lower prices would
• Results guide for the remainder of 2020. favor the contribution of Rest of CLH.
• We do not anticipate important
comments on the tender offer process. Excluding the effects of impairment, we
estimate a net profit of USD 2 mm. Furthermore,
we do not foresee significant impacts via the
exchange rate.
 CEMENTOS ARGOS
Expected results: Neutral

The recovery in volumes in regions such as Colombia

COP bn 3Q20E 2Q20 3Q19 Q/Q Y/Y
would favor the expansion in margins, even despite the
Revenue 2,286 2,135 2,503 7.1% -8.6% effects in regions of the United States due to the
hurricanes. Added to this is the continuity in some
EBITDA 460 414 442 11.0% 4.1%
efficiencies in response to the crisis.
Net Income 34 12 17 189.8% 96.5%
States like Texas would have been affected by
the hurricane season, resulting in double-digit
EBITDA
20.1% 19.4% 17.6% 701bps 246bps
drops in volumes in the U.S. However, the
Margin continuity of savings plans and the absence of
Net Margin 1.5% 0.5% 0.7% 91bps 77bps non-recurring (USD -7.6 mm in 3Q19) would
have allowed maintaining a relatively high
EBITDA margin (~ 20%).

In Colombia, volumes would fall ~ 10% YoY,

To monitor:
• Delivery of guides and expectations for
the remainder of 2020.
• Leverage metrics close to 5x.
• Comments on additional debt needs and
cash position.
• Expectations about the possibility of
divestments in the short term.
mainly affected by the dynamics of buildings.
However, stability in prices and a greater
absorption of fixed costs would allow the
regional EBITDA to, once again, achieve margins
close to 19%.
In Central America, the self-construction
segment and good dynamics in Honduras and
the Dominican Republic would make it possible
to compensate for the slowness in Panama.
 CONCONCRETO
Expected results: Neutral
Despite the fact that construction income records
continue well below last year, we estimate that the
COP mm 3Q20 2Q20 3Q19 Q/Q Y/Y return to some works and better dynamics in the
Revenue 114 95 242 20.5% -52.8% commercialization of housing would result in a
moderate recovery of Conconcreto's results
EBITDA 23 16 30 48.0% -24.1%

Net Income 7 2 16 208.5% -57.6%

Months like September would have ended with
a return to the speed of execution of works close
EBITDA to 100%. However, the pipeline of projects
20.2% 16.5% 12.6% 374bps 763bps under execution compared to 2019 is low, which
Margin
Net Margin 5.8% 2.3% 6.5% 355bps -67bps is why the record of construction income would
continue to be moderate, although higher than
2Q20.

Possible devaluations of real estate assets could

To monitor:
• Advances on the financial closing or credit
can of Vía 40.
• Details about the amendment to the
contract signed with the ANI for the
development of Vía 40.
• Comments on the conciliation stage with
EPM.
• Impacts on investment in Pactia.
affect the income generated by some
investments such as Pactia, although we expect
that the impact on the vehicle will still be
moderate and strong devaluations will not be
reflected.
Although the volume of execution has fallen,
with the start of some public works in Bogotá
and Vía 40, in 4Q20 and 1Q21, revenue
generation would show an important recovery.
 Corredores Davivienda S:A comisionista de Bolsa del Banco Davivienda S:A
The first wave of aid through extensions by
credit institutions began to expire in the
quarter, so we expect greater clarity on the real
deterioration of the portfolio. Similarly, as of
September, about 78% of the extensions have
expired and there has been economic
reactivation, translating into a recovery in the
collections, which is expected to maintain the
Financial positive path.

Sector Expected expiration of grace periods in the coming months

More than a year 0.5%

jan-21 2%
dec-20 3%
nov-20 6%
oct-20 12%
sep-20 11%
aug-20 29%
july-20 17%
Before july-20 21%

Expectected expiration date

Source: Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia.

10
 BANCOLOMBIA
Expected results: Negative

Quarterly results will be impacted by higher provision

COP bn 3Q20E 2Q20 3Q19 Q/Q Y/Y expenses and lower portfolio growth, both domestic
and foreign. However, the expected profit generation
Gross Loans 197,985 200,039 184,030 -1.0% 7.6% has improved compared to 2Q20
Equity 27,029 26,473 26,990 2.1% 0.1%
We estimate a growth of the portfolio close to 7.6%
YoY, mainly driven by the mortgage modality. We
Net Interest began to see adjustments in the growth of the
2,878 2,901 2,782 -0.8% 3.4%
Income
commercial portfolio, as a result of the lower need for
Net Income -7 -73 879 -90.8% -100.8% liquidity by some corporations, in addition to this,
and in line with what we saw last quarter, we expect a
much lower growth in the Consumer portfolio loan.
NIM 5.0% 5.1% 5.5% 3bps -40bps
(5.6% Y/Y).
ROAE 2.7% 6.0% 13.4% -329bps -1,070bps
Although we expect the net interest margin (NIM) to
Cost of risk* 4.6% 4.8% 1.6% -23bps 300bps
begin to decline due to pressure from lower interest
* Provision expense / Average loan portfolio. rates, they will be slightly offset by lower interest
expense. Added to this, we expect the net income
from commissions to recover (+ 8.2% Q/Q), as a result
To Monitor: of the economic reopening and therefore the
• Effects of the end of the grace period payment of various services.
stages and its impact on the bank's
provisions. Finally, a decrease in provisions (-7% Q/Q) would
• Expectations of provisions expenses and bring the cost of credit close to 4.6%, resulting in a
cost of credit for the rest of the year. net loss of COP -7 Bn.
• Dynamics of portfolio growth at the end
of the year.
 GRUPO AVAL
Expected results: Negative

COP bn 3Q20E 2Q20 3Q19 Q/Q Y/Y We expect negative results for Grupo Aval, where we
estimate that the loan portfolio will decrease slightly in
Gross Loans 207,040 212,878 183,385 -2.7% 12.9% quarterly terms which, added to higher expenses in
Equity 34,844 34,161 32,363 2.0% 7.7% provisions, will put pressure on the capacity to generate
profits.
Net Interest
2,952 2,954 2,829 -0.1% 4.3% We expect a growth in provisions (+ 10% QoQ) as a
Income
result of the end of some grace periods, which would
Net Income 287 323 743 -11.2% -61.3% begin to reflect the real deterioration of the debtors'
payment capacity. For its part, we expect fee income
NIM 5.1% 5.3% 5.7% -4bps -43bps
to show a recovery of about + 10% compared to the
previous quarter.
ROAE 5.8% 6.6% 15.8% -79bps -999bps

Cost of risk* 3.5% 3.2% 2.7% 27bps 75bps In line with the economic reactivation that has been
taking place, we expect better dynamics in the
* Provision expense / Average loan portfolio. contributions from Corficolombiana, thanks to the
higher execution of works, which will partially offset
the effects.
To Monitor:
• Evolution of the dynamics of the non-
financial sector.
Finally, these dynamics in the banking business, and
• Economic dynamics in Central America, despite the rebound in the performance of some
given the Group's exposure to this region. investments, would lead to the ROE in the quarter be
• Expectations in cost of credit. negatively impacted, registering levels of 5.3% (ROAE
5.8%).
 BANCO DE BOGOTA
Expected results: Negative

The increase in provisions expenses and a slowdown in

COP bn 3Q20E 2Q20 3Q19 Q/Q Y/Y
the loan portfolio will put pressure on the bank's profit
Gross Loans 136,070 143,961 119,766 -5.5% 13.6% generation during the quarter.
Equity 22,965 20,893 20,091 9.9% 14.3%
We expect commission income to show an
Net Interest improvement, growing close to 12%, as a result of the
2,079 2,078 1,843 0.1% 13.3% reactivation of charges on certain services that were
Income
Net Income 305 367 567 -16.8% -46.2%
free during the past quarter. Although we expect
pressure on interest income, these effects will be
offset by a lower cost of funding, given the reductions
NIM 5.4% 5.6% 5.9% 0bps -30bps in interest rates, which would keep the NIM stable for
ROAE 5.9% 7.5% 12.7% -159bps -679bps the quarter stable.
Cost of risk* 3.3% 3.0% 3.0% 33bps 33bps Regarding the provision expenses for the quarter, this
would present an increase close to 7% Q/Q, as a result
of the expiration of some grace periods.
* Provision expense / Average loan portfolio.

Although we expect the portfolio to grow compared

to the same period last year (+ 13.6%), we anticipate a
To Monitor:
• Outlook of cost of credit derived from the
quarterly decrease, as a result of a lower need for
increase in provisions. liquidity on the part of corporations, both in
• Economic dynamics in Central America, Colombia and Central America.
given the bank's exposure in this region.
• Adjustments in models of expected loss.
 Corredores Davivienda S:A comisionista de Bolsa del Banco Davivienda S:A
Household spending in September showed a
growth of 2.3% in current pesos compared to
September 2019, and 0.37% in real terms.

This growth compared to the previous month, is

higher than the expected average, causing
good dynamics for this month, as a

Consumer consequence of greater job creation and better

credit dynamics

and Retail
Sector 11.2% 11.2%
Annual variation of purchases
11.9%11.9% 12.2% 11.3%
11.2%
12.0% 10.3%
9.3%9.4%9.6%
10.0%
7.7%7.7%8.1%7.3%7.3%
8.0% 7.1% 7.1%
5.8%5.8%5.6% 6.3%
6.0%
3.2% 1.9%
4.0% 2.5% 2.3%
1.7%
2.0%
-1.8% 0.4%
0.0% 2.2%
-0.1% -0.1%
-2.0%
-1.3%
-4.0%
-6.0% -5.1%

oct.-19

ene.-20
nov.-19
may.-19

sep.-19
jun.-19

may.-20

sep.-20
jul.-19

ago.-19

feb.-20

jun.-20
mar.-20

jul.-20

ago.-20
dic.-19

abr.-20
Market Size Real Market Size

Source: Raddar
14
 GRUPO NUTRESA
Expected results: Positive

COP bn 3Q20E 2Q20 3Q19 Q/Q Y/Y

We expect the performance of the quarter to be positive
for Grupo Nutresa. We estimate that the dynamics in
Revenue 2,749 2,665 2,554 3.1% 7.6% sales would remain in positive territory, presenting a
EBITDA 368 370 344 -0.6% 6.9%
slight deceleration. Additionally, we anticipate a slight
recovery in the Consumer Food segment.
Net Income 141 140 133 0.8% 6.3%
• Revenues would grow about 7.6% due to the
good dynamics of some segments, such as cold
EBITDA
margin
13.4% 13.9% 13.5% -50bps -10bps cuts, coffee and pasta, which, added to a better
performance of retail food where we expect this
Net Margin 5.1% 5.2% 5.2% -12bps -6bps
to grow 32.4% QoQ, as a result of the reactivation
of mobility in Colombia.

• EBITDA would be show an annual growth of 6.9%

YoY, benefited by the efforts to reduce operating
* Provision expense / Average loan portfolio. expenses. However, the effects of the exchange
rate and a higher cost of raw materials will
continue to put pressure on the company's
To Monitor: margins.
• Volatility in commodity prices.
• Updating of CAPEX and indebtedness • In addition to the above, a recovery of certain
guides.
distribution channels would allow the company's
• Recovery dynamics of the most affected
segments.
profits to show an annual growth of 6.3%.
• Possible comments on mergers and / or
acquisitions.
16
Holdings

Corredores Davivienda S:A comisionista de Bolsa del Banco Davivienda S:A

 GRUPO SURA
Expected results: Negative
As a result of a higher claims ratio, both in the Non-life
segments, added to the weak results of Bancolombia,
COP bn 3Q20E 2Q20 3Q19 Q/Q Y/Y the generation of earnings of Grupo Sura would be
Revenue 4,856 5,297 5,678 -8.3% -14.5% negatively impacted.

Expenses 4,628 4,619 4,789 0.2% -3.4% We expect that revenues will be affected mainly by a
lower contribution via the equity method of
Net Income 105 321 542 -67.4% -80.7%
Bancolombia, which, added to income from
commissions pressured by lower contributions in the
Net Margin 2.2% 6.1% 9.6% -39.1bps -73.9bps mandatory segment and a weak performance of the
markets, would result in falls in revenues at around
14.5% per year.

In line with the idea above, we expect income from

To monitor:
• Impacts derived from regulatory changes
in the different geographies.
• Dynamics of Covid-19 and its impacts on
the group's life businesses.
• Comments on sources and uses of cash for
the holding company.
services rendered to continue to grow at double
digits in annual terms, as a result of a greater number
of affiliates.
Finally, as a result of the economic reactivation, we
expect the claims ratio to begin to increase in the
non-life segments (Cars, Fires, etc.) due to the greater
frequency of these solutions. Which, added to a
higher claims ratio in segments such as ARL and
health, as a result of the greater infections of COVID-
19 in the country, will negatively pressure the
Holding's profits.
 GRUPO ARGOS
Expected Results: Negative

COP bn 3Q20E 2Q20 3Q19 Q/Q Y/Y

Despite the partial recovery of the cement operation, the
lower contribution of other strategic and non-strategic
Revenue 3,394 3,336 4,144 1.7% -18.1% investments, particularly Grupo Sura, would lead the
EBITDA 845 894 1,416 -5.5% -40.3%
company to record reductions in margins and net losses.

Net Income -17 10 301 -275.3% -105.8% Despite the effects in the US as a result of the
hurricane season, the dynamics in Colombia and
Central America would favor Cemargos' profit
EBITDA generation, maintaining relatively high margins
24.9% 26.8% 34.2% -1900bps -928bps
Margin
as a consequence of the efficiencies
Net Margin -0.5% 0.3% 7.3% -82bps -780bps implemented during the year.

Regarding the energy business, given the lower

To monitor:
• Evolution of leverage metrics.
• Announcements about the need to take
on additional debt.
• New changes in investment plans.
• Comments on the negotiations with the
ANI for financial compensation.
energy prices, we anticipate a lower
contribution from Celsia. Additionally, the
results are not comparable, given that in 3Q19
the sale of ZFC was recorded.
The business that would continue to show the
greatest impacts in the concessions, where
although road traffic has registered a significant
recovery, revenue generation from this segment
would continue well below pre-COVID figures.
 Corredores Davivienda S:A comisionista de Bolsa del Banco Davivienda S:A
The average Brent price increased by 30.1%
compared to 2Q20. On the other hand, the
USDCOP exchange rate decreased and on
average stood at COP 3,733/USD, which would
have a mixed effect on income generation.
Regarding national daily production, there was a
drop compared to the first quarter, reaching 743
kbpd.
Brent Vs Colombia´s oil production
Oil & Gas 75 76
67 69 64 68
61 61 62
52 51
43
33
892
876 893
877 882 873
856 861 847 866 865

2017 III 753 743

2017 IV

2018 I

2018 II

2018 III

2018 IV

2019 I

2019 II

2019 III

2019 IV

2020 I

2020 II

2020 III
Production (Kpbed) Brent (USD)

Source: Campetrol | Figures: Davivienda Corredores

19
 ECOPETROL
Expected results: Neutral
The results for 3Q20 will be positively influenced by
the increase in the price of Brent (+ 30.1% QoQ),
COP bn 3Q20E* 2Q20 3Q19 Q/Q Y/Y which occurred as a result of the economic and
productive openings of several countries globally,
Revenue 11,919 8,442 18,014 41.2% -33.8%
which has encouraged a slight recovery of the
EBITDA 4,877 1,996 8,270 144.3% -41.0% demand for crude oil and its derivatives. However,
Net Income 772 25 3,011 2988.0% -74.4%
these will be slightly mitigated by the appreciation
of the Colombian peso against the dollar during the
quarter.
EBITDA
40.9% 23.6% 45.9% 1,727bps -499bps
Margin • The company's production would fall to 684
Net Margin 6.5% 0.3% 16.7% 618bps -1,024bps kbepd (-5.00% YoY), as a result of lower oil prices,
Production demand that is recovering at a moderate speed
684 677 720 1.0% -5.0%
kpbed and the search for profitable production for the
group.

• Refinery cargo would show a 27% increase

To monitor:
• Evolution of crude oil sales and
production volumes.
• Refining operating margins.
• Impairments on assets .
• News on the sale of minor assets.
• Guides for the remainder of the year.
*Figures without any possible impairments
compared to 2Q20, given the higher demand for
petroleum derivatives, with diesel and gasoline
being the best performing products, unlike jet
fuel, given that the volume of flights continues to
be moderate.
• Net income would be benefit from the
appreciation of the COP against the USD, which
would reduce financial expenses and increase
profitability margins.
 Corredores Davivienda S:A comisionista de Bolsa del Banco Davivienda S:A
Energy prices in the spot market decreased 49%
compared to 2Q20, while contract prices
remained stable. The drop in prices was driven
by higher hydro-generation and a weak
demand for electrical energy by some sectors as
construction and retail.

Utilities Energy prices (COP)

363

307
279 288

COP KWh
200 206 206 206
192 193 184197
179 182
159 156
139

92

3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

Spot P. Contracts P.

Source : XM | Figures: Davivienda Corredores

21
 CELSIA
Expected results: Neutral

Quarterly results would be affected by the impact of the

lower spot prices evidenced during the quarter (-49%
COP bn 3Q20E 2Q20 3Q19 Q/Q Y/Y Q/Q), which would reduce revenues by -5.2% compared
Revenue 845 891 984 -5.2% -14.2% to 2Q20, but which would be partially offset by the
higher generation of electricity, given the better
EBITDA 270 312 321 -13.6% -15.8% performance of demand after the economic reopening.
Net Income 53 73 308 -28.1% -82.9% On the other hand, we expect profitability margins to
remain stable compared to the last quarter.
The economic reopening in Colombia has
EBITDA allowed the partial recovery of the demand for
31.9% 35.1% 32.6% -311bps -63bps
Margin electricity, which registered a variation of -2.5%
Net Margin 6.2% 8.2% 31.3% -198bps -2,504bps YoY as of September, compared to the -11% YoY
GWH Col drop registered in the month of April.
841 875 1244 -3.9% -32.4%
Generation
Spot Price 307 363 159 -15.4% 93.6% The EBITDA margin would present a fall
compared to the previous quarter, due to the
negative impact that the special contribution to
the Superservicos maintenance law would have,
To monitor: in which an increase in the tax base was
• Evolution of collection in distribution established, going from 1% of the agent’s
assets. administrative expenses, to also integrate the
• News in Central America regarding BLM 1% of the agent’s costs. This would have a
and Cativá contracts. negative effect close to COP -18 bn.
• Progress in the execution of CAPEX.
• Net impact of the special contribution to In 2Q20 and 3Q19, net income was influenced
the Superintendency of Services. by non-recurring events due to the divestment
of Zona Franca Celsia.
 ISA
Expected results: Positive

Operating income without construction would have an

COP bn 3Q20E 2Q20 3Q19 Q/Q Y/Y
increase of 35.1% compared to 3Q19, due to the new
Revenue 2,577 2,681 1,971 -3.9% 30.7% projects that came into operation during 3Q20 in Chile
(USD 6.8 mm for the transmission segment) and the
EBITDA 1,620 1,852 1,245 -12.5% 30.1%
renewal of CTEEP contract 059. On the other hand, the
Net Income 502 550 406 -8.8% 23.6% results would be partially impacted by the appreciation
of the COP against the BRL.

EBITDA • The INTERCHILE projects that came into operation

62.9% 69.1% 63.2% -621bps -30bps
Margin
during 3Q20 were: i) Nueva Pan de Azúcar -
Net Margin 19.5% 20.5% 20.6% -106bps -113bps Polpacio; and, ii) Maitecillo - Pan de Azúcar. On the
other hand, close to USD 63.4 mm in annual income
from postponed projects are still committed.

• We expect the EBITDA margin to show an decrease

To monitor:
• Capex execution level.
• Expectations on regulatory changes.
• Projects to be carried out with the vehicle
of the alliance with El Cóndor.
• Progress in the works postponed by the
COVID-19 pandemic.
of 30 bps compared to the same period last year, in
line with the higher generation of income, but we
would see a slight decrease in the profitability
indexes due to the lower contribution of the
highway concessions.
• Finally, we expect net income to show an annual
increase of 23.6%, growth limited by the lower
profitability margins in the highways segment.
 GRUPO ENERGÍA BOGOTÁ
Expected results: Positive

We estimate revenues of COP 1.26 tn, mainly impacted

COP bn 3Q20E 2Q20 3Q19 Q/Q Y/Y by the negative performance that assets in Peru would
Revenue 1,261 1,156 1,289 9.1% -2.1% have, given the lockdown of the country, which would
reduce the sale of natural gas volumes and the revenue
EBITDA 687 663 580 3.6% 18.4% generated by the distribution of electrical energy. On the
Net Income 542 577 460 -6.2% 17.7% other hand, the exchange rate would partially mitigate
this drop in operating revenues, in addition to the
constant flow generated by transmission assets in
EBITDA Colombia.
54.5% 57.4% 45.0% -288bps 944bps
Margin
Net Margin 42.9% 49.9% 35.7% -700bps 724bps • Cálidda's results would show a recovery, in response
to the economic reopening in Peru, which would
have allowed increasing the sale of natural gas,
especially in the Natural Gas Vehicle (NGV) and
industrial segment.

To monitor: • EBITDA would increase 18.4% compared to 3Q19,

• News about the arbitration tribunal
against Enel.
• Negotiation of TGI rates and expiration of
contracts.
• Cálidda collection in Peru and impact on
cash flow.
• Comments on the sale of the District's
equity interest.
driven by the higher contribution from Electro
Dunas.
• Similarly, net income would show an increase of
17.7% compared to 3Q19, in line with the higher
generation of income and lower financial expenses
due to the appreciation of the COP against the USD,
taking into account that 79% of the debt is in
dollars.
 Corredores Davivienda S:A comisionista de Bolsa del Banco Davivienda S:A
During 3Q20, the price of gold increased 12.2%
compared to 2Q20, reaching an average price of
USD 1,943/Oz. This is due to the high
uncertainty that still originates in the global
market and the appetite for non-cyclical assets,
waiting for the U.S. presidential elections and a
second COVID-19 infection wave.
Mining
Gold Price (USD/Oz)
2100

1900

1700

1500

1300

1100

900

700

500
sep. 08 sep. 10 sep. 12 sep. 14 sep. 16 sep. 18 sep. 20

Source: Bloomberg | Figures: Davivienda Corredores

25
 MINEROS
Expected results: Positive

COP bn 3Q20E 2Q20 3Q19 Q/Q Y/Y Results for 3Q20 will be influenced by the increase in
gold prices (+ 12.2%) compared to last quarter, but we
Revenue 121 126 106 -4.3% 14.0% would see a drop in gold production during the quarter
EBITDA 52 53 38 -1.8% 36.5% (-13.5% YoY). EBITDA will increase considerably to USD
52 mm (+ 36.5% YoY), thanks to higher income
Net Income 24 7 19 257.5% 24.2% generation and lower Cash Cost due to the absence of
non-recurring expenses, such as those registered in
EBITDA 2Q20.
42.9% 41.8% 35.8% 109bps 708bps
Margin
Net Margin 19.8% 5.3% 18.2% 1,451bps 163bps The company's production would show a drop due to
Production the sale of the underground operation in Colombia
63,226 72,542 73,077 -12.84% -13.48% and lower contributions from the operation in
(Oz)
Argentina.

Cash Costs would have a positive effect due to their

decrease during the quarter, especially in Argentina,
To monitor: given the non-recurring expenses evidenced in 2Q20,
• Reserves report 2020. after inventory adjustments and a lower recovery of
• Comments on the listing on the Toronto gold in the heap leaching.
Stock Exchange.
• Production levels due to the COVID-19 Finally, we expect net income to improve
situation. significantly, driven by higher revenues and
• Development of projects in Argentina and profitability indicators compared to last years.
Chile.
 Research and Strategy
DAVIVIENDA CORREDORES

José Germán Cristancho

Head of Research and Strategy
jcristancho@corredores.com
Phone.+ (571) 312 3300 Ext. 92212

Katherine Ortiz Laura Vargas Camilo Roldán

Senior Equity Analyst Fixed Income Analyst Equity Analyst
kortiz@corredores.com lvargas@corredores.com croldan@corredores.com
Phone. + (571) 312 3300 Ext. 92134 Phone.+ (571) 312 3300 Ext. 92192 Phone. + (571) 312 3300 Ext.92257

Rodrigo Sanchez Juan Pablo Vega Sergio Taborda

Senior Equity Analyst Fixed Income Analyst Quantitative Analyst
wsanchez@corredores.com jvega@corredores.com staborda@corredores.com
Phone. + (571) 312 3300 Ext.92110 Phone. + (571) 312 3300 Ext.92410 Phone. + (571) 312 3300 Ext.92115

Julián Ausique Sebastián Cárdenas Sofia Escobar Uribe

Equity Analyst Intern Intern
jausique@corredores.com scardenas@corredores.com sescobar@corredores.com
Phone. + (571) 312 3300 Ext.92257 Phone. + (571) 312 3300 Ext.92229 Phone. + (571) 312 3300

María Guillen
Intern
mguillen@corredores.com
Phone. + (571) 312 3300

27
Disclaimer

Corredores Davivienda S.A. Comisionista de Bolsa is not responsible for investment decisions that may be derived from
the information and analyses presented in this document. These decisions, their effects and consequences will be the
sole responsibility of the investor. The information published is informative and has been taken from reliable sources,
but Corredores Davivienda S.A. does not guarantee that they are free of errors. QoQal or partial reproduction of this
document is not allowed without the prior and express authorization of Corredores Davivienda S.A.
In addition to the above, we inform that: i) Corredores Davivienda S.A. Comisionista de Bolsa is a subsidiary (related
party) of Banco Davivienda Issuer; ii) Corredores Davivienda is one of the member companies of Grupo Empresarial
Bolívar iii) Corredores Davivienda according to their policy and Investment Risk, could acquire or maintain for their own
position financial assets or securities to which this report refers.
 THANK YOU

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