MATH 2930 Assignment # 2 Solutions [82 marks] Fall 2018

1. Homeowners who cultivate small backyard gardens often worry about pests ruining their plants. Some
gardeners protect their garden with a fence, others use chemicals and some do nothing. The probability
table below shows the relationship among these garden protection methods and success results.

Garden Defense
Fence Chemicals Nothing
Results Pests 0.05 0.08 0.34
No Pests 0.30 0.20 0.03

Suppose a gardener is selected at random.

(a) [1 mark for the correct probability, 1 mark for the work; total 2 marks] Suppose the gardener had
pests. Given this, what is the probability the gardener used nothing?

(b) [1 mark for the correct probability, 1 mark for the work; total 2 marks] Suppose the gardener used
chemicals. Given this, what is the probability there were pests?
Solution:
0.34 0.34
(a) P(nothing | pests)= 0.05+0.08+0.34 = 0.47
≈ 0.7234 by considering only the first row of the table since
we are given the gardener had pets
0.08 0.08
(b) P(pests | chemicals)= 0.08+0.20 = 0.28 ≈ 0.2857 by considering only the middle column of the table
since we are given the gardener used chemicals

2. As items come to the end of a production line, an inspector chooses which items are to go through
a complete inspection. Ten percent of all items produced are defective. Sixty percent of all defective
items go through a complete inspection, and 20% of all non-defective items go through a complete
inspection. Given that an item is completely inspected, determine the probability it is defective [Total
3 marks]. In your solution, draw the corresponding tree diagram [Total 3 marks].
Solution:
Define the following events:
A := item is defective,
B := item goes through complete inspection,
which means
A0 := item is not defective (this is the complement of A),
B 0 := item does not go through complete inspection (this is the complement of B).

From the given information, we know P (A) = 0.10, P (B|A) = 0.6 and P (B|A0 ) = 0.20. The corre-
sponding tree diagram is

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 P (A)P (B|A) = 0.10 ∗ 0.60

P (B|A) = 0.6

P (B 0 |A) = 0.4
P (A) = 0.10

P (A0 )P (B|A0 ) = 0.90 ∗ 0.20

P (B|A0 ) = 0.20

P (A0 ) = 0.90

P (B 0 |A0 ) = 0.80

The question asks to determine P (A|B). From Bayes’ Theorem (and using the tree diagram), we know
P (A)P (B|A) 0.1 ∗ 0.6
P (A|B) = 0 0
= = 0.25.
P (A)P (B|A) + P (A )P (B|A ) 0.1 ∗ 0.6 + 0.9 ∗ 0.2
3. The probability a company will hire a new employee is 0.38. Suppose three companies are randomly
selected.
(i) [1 mark for the correct probability, 1 mark for the work; total 2 marks] Find the probability all three
companies will hire a new employee.
(ii) [1 mark for the correct probability, 1 mark for the work; total 2 marks] Find the probability at least
one company will hire a new employee.
(iii) [1 mark for the correct probability, 1 mark for the work; total 2 marks] Find the probability none of
the three companies will hire a new employee.
Solution:
Since these three companies were randomly selected, they will not influence each other and hence act
independently when choosing to hire a new employee. Let Bi = company i hires a new employee.
(i) P(all three companies hire a new employee)=P(B1 ∩ B2 ∩ B3 ) = P (B1 ) ∗ P (B2 ) ∗ P (B3 ) = 0.38 ∗
0.38 ∗ 0.38 = 0.383 = 0.054872 by independence.
(ii) P(at least one company will hire a new employee)=1-P(no company will hire a new employee)=1-
P(B10 ∩ B20 ∩ B30 ) =1- P(B10 ) ∗ P (B20 ) ∗ P (B30 ) = 1 − 0.623 =0.761672 by independence and complement.
(iii) P(none of the three companies will hire a new employee)=P(B10 ∩ B20 ∩ B30 ) = P (B10 ) ∗ P (B20 ) ∗
P (B30 ) = 0.62 ∗ 0.62 ∗ 0.62 = 0.623 = 0.238328 by independence.
4. Consider the following portion of an electric circuit with three relays. Current will flow from point A to
point B if there is at least one closed path when the relays are activated. The relays may malfunction
and not close when activated. Suppose the relays act independently of one another and close properly
when activated with a probability of 0.9.

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 1

A 2 B

(a) [1 mark for the correct probability, 1 mark for the work; total 2 marks] What is the probability that
current will flow when the relays are activated?

(b) [1 mark for the correct probability, 1 mark for the work; total 2 marks] Given that current flowed
when the relays were activated, what is the probability that relay 1 functioned?
Solution:
(a) P(current will flow)=1-P(current is not flowing)=1-P(all three relays are open)=1 − 0.01 ∗ 0.01 ∗
0.01 = 1 − 0.013 = 0.999 by independence and complement.
(b) This is about conditional probability. Let event A be that current flows. From (a), we know
P(A)=0.999. Let event B be that relay 1 closed properly. Notice event B is a subset of event A; that
is, event B is an outcome of event A. Using this, we have

P (A ∩ B) P (B) 0.9
P (B|A) = = = = 0.9009.
P (A) P (A) 0.999

5. Consider the following probability distribution for the discrete random variable W

w 100 200 250 300 450 500

p(w) ? 0.237 0.184 0.122 0.044 0.258

(i) [1 mark for the correct probability, 1 mark for the work; total 2 marks] Find p(100).

(ii) [1 mark for the correct probability, 1 mark for the work; total 2 marks] Find P (W ≥ 250)

(iii) [1 mark for the correct probability, 1 mark for the work; total 2 marks] Find P (W > 250)

(iv) [1 mark for each correct interval; total 7 marks] Let F (w) be the cumulative distribution function of
W . Determine F (w).

(v) [Total 3 marks] Use your answer in (iv) to sketch F (w).

Solution:
(i) p(100) = 1 − 0.237 − 0.184 − 0.122 − 0.044 − 0.258 = 0.155
(ii) P (W ≥ 250) = P (W = 250) + P (W = 300) + P (W = 450) + P (W = 500) = 0.184 + 0.122 +
0.044 + 0.258 = 0.608
(iii) P (W > 250) = P (W = 300) + P (W = 450) + P (W = 500) = 0.122 + 0.044 + 0.258 = 0.424

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 (iv) Using the table given and the definition of cumulative distribution functions, we have


 0 w < 100
0.155 100 ≤ w < 200




 0.392 200 ≤ w < 250


F (w) = 0.576 250 ≤ w < 300
0.694 300 ≤ w < 450




0.738 450 ≤ w < 500




1 w ≥ 500.


(v) A sketch of F (w) is displayed below.

F (w)

0.738

0.694

0.576

0.392

0.155

0
w
0 100 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

6. The probability distribution for a discrete random variable X is given by

x(x + 1)
p(x) = , x = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
112

(i) [1 mark for each x; total 6 marks] Show p(x) ∈ [0, 1] for each x.
X
(ii) [Total 2 marks] Show p(x) = 1.
all x
(iii) [Total 1 marks] Find P (X = 4)

(iv) [Total 2 marks] Find P (X > 2)

(v) [Total 2 marks] Find the probability that X = 3 or 4.

Solution:
(i)(ii) Using the formula of p(x) given, the probability distribution in table form is

x 1 2 3 4 5 6
2 6 12 20 30 42
p(x) 112 112 112 112 112 112

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 X 2 6 12 20 30 42
From the table, we see p(x) ∈ [0, 1] for each x and p(x) = + + + + + =1
112 112 112 112 112 112
all x
Aside: by verifying (i) and (ii), this shows p(x) is a probability distribution.
4∗5 20
(iii) From the table (or using the given formula), P (X = 4) = 112
= 112
.
(iv) From the table (or using the given formula) and using the complement, P (X > 2) = 1 − P (X ≤
2 6
2) = 1 − 112 − 112 = 104
112
. Alternatively, we can use P (X > 2) = P (X = 3) + P (X = 4) + P (X =
5) + P (X = 6).
(v) From the table (or using the given formula), P (X = 3 or X = 4) = P (X = 3) + P (X = 4) =
12 20 32
112
+ 112 = 112 .

7. A company wants to buy a new machine of either type A or type B. If t denotes the number of hours of
daily operation, the number of daily repairs Y1 required to maintain a machine of type A is a random
variable with mean and variance both equal to 0.10t. The number of daily repairs Y2 for a machine of
type B is a random variable with mean and variance both equal to 0.12t. The daily cost of operating
A is CA (t) = 10t + 30Y12 ; for B it is CB (t) = 8t + 30Y22 . Assume the repairs take negligible time and
each night the machines are tuned so they operate essentially like new machines at the start of the
next day.

(i) [1 mark for the correct expected daily cost, 2 marks for the work; total 3 marks] Determine the
expected daily cost for machine A.

(ii) [Total 3 marks] Determine the expected daily cost for machine B.

(iii) [Total 3 marks] Which machine minimizes the expected daily cost if a workday consists of 10 hours?

(iv) [Total 3 marks] Which machine minimized the expected daily cost if a workday consists of 20 hours?
Hints: Your final answer in (i) and (ii) should be in terms of t, and the formula V [X] = E[X 2 ]−(E[X])2
maybe helpful.
Solution:
(i)(ii) In the following calculations, we use V [X] = E[X 2 ] − (E[X])2 . The expected daily costs for A
is

E[CA (t)] = E[10t + 30Y12 ]

= 10t + 30E[Y12 ]
= 10t + 30 V [Y1 ] + (E[Y1 ])2

= 10t + 30 0.10t + (0.10t)2

= 13t + 0.3t2 .

Similarly, the expected daily costs for B is

E[CB (t)] = E[8t + 30Y22 ]

= 8t + 30E[Y22 ]
= 8t + 30 V [Y2 ] + (E[Y2 ])2

= 8t + 30 0.12t + (0.12t)2

= 11.6t + 0.432t2 .

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 (iii) When t = 10, we have E[CA (10)] = 13(10) + 0.3(10)2 = 160 and E[CB (10)] = 11.6(10) +
0.432(10)2 = 159.2 and hence machine B is preferred since it has the smaller operating cost.
(iv) When t = 20, we have E[CA (20)] = 13(20) + 0.3(20)2 = 380 and E[CB (20)] = 11.6(20) +
0.432(20)2 = 404.8 and hence machine A is preferred since it has the smaller operating cost.
8. [Total 3 marks] Let X be a discrete random variable with probability mass function p(x). Show

V (X) = E[X(X − 1)] + E(X) − [E(X)]2 .

Hint: V (X) = E(X 2 ) − [E(X)]2 maybe helpful.

Solution:
We know that V (X) = E(X 2 ) − [E(X)]2 , so if we can show E[X(X − 1)] + E(X) = E(X 2 ) then we
are done. It follows that

E(X(X − 1)] = E[X 2 − X]

X
= (x2 − x)p(x) (by definition of expected value)
all x
X X
= x2 p(x) − xp(x)
all x all x
2
= E[X ] − E[X].

Rearranging we have E[X(X − 1)] + E(X) = E(X 2 ).

9. A box contains six pagers. Assume any pager selected from the box is done randomly, and hence
selections are independent from each other. The probability of a selected pager being defective is 0.25.
Let X be the random variable for the number of defective pagers. used in your solution.
(i) [1 mark for stating each property is satisfied; total 4 marks] Explain why this scenario follows a
binomial probability model.
(ii) [Total 2 marks] Determine the probability of selecting exactly 2 defective pagers.
(iii) [Total 2 marks] Determine the probability of selecting at least 5 defective pagers.
(iv) [1 mark for the correct mean, 1 mark for the correct variance; total 2 marks] Determine the mean and
variance of X.
Solution:
(i) This scenario has a binomial probability distribution because:
(1) Fixed number of trials (that is, selecting each pager), n = 6.
(2) Each trial results in two outcomes; that is, either the selected pager is defective (successful out-
come) or it is not defective (failure outcome).
(3) The trials are independent since the pagers are selected randomly.
(4) The probability of success in a single trial is 0.25 and the probability of failure in a single trial is
1 − 0.25 = 0.75. The probability is the same for each trial.

(ii) The event of selecting exactly 2 defective pagers is

 
6 6!
p(X = 2) = 0.252 (0.75)6−2 = 0.252 (0.75)4 = 15(0.25)2 (0.75)4 ≈ 0.29663.
2 4!2!

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 (iii) The event of selecting at least 5 defective pagers is

P (X ≥ 5) = P (X = 5) + P (X = 6)
   
6 5 6−5 6
= 0.25 (0.75) + 0.256 (0.75)6−6
5 6
6! 6!
= 0.255 (0.75)1 + 0.256 (0.75)0
5!1! 6!0!
≈ 0.0046386719.

Alternatively, it is also possible to use the complement to solve this question.

(iv) Since X is binomial random variable, then the mean is µ = np = 6 ∗ 0.25 = 1.5 and the variance
is σ 2 = np(1 − p) = 6 ∗ 0.25(1 − 0.25) = 1.125.

10. A phone-in health number receives, on the average, 8 calls per hour asking for health information. Let
X be the Poisson random variable for the number of calls for any randomly selected hour.

(a) [Total 2 marks] Determine the probability that in any hour there are exactly 3 calls.

(b) [1 mark for the correct probability, 2 mark for the work; total 3 marks] Determine the probability that
in any hour there are 4 or more calls.

(c) [1 mark for the correct probability, 2 marks for the work; total 3 marks] Determine the probability
that in any hour there are at most 5 calls.
Solution:

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(a) The probability that in any hour there are exactly 3 calls P (3) = P (X = 3) = e−8 83! ≈ 0.0286.
(b) The probability that in any hour there are 4 or more calls

P (X ≥ 4) = 1 − P (X < 4)
= 1 − P (X = 0) − P (X = 1) − P (X = 2) − P (X = 3)
80 81 82 83
= 1 − e−8 − e−8 − e−8 − e−8
0! 1! 2! 3!
≈ 0.9576

(c) The probability that in any hour there are at most 5 calls

P (X ≤ 5) = P (0) + P (1) + P (2) + P (3) + P (4) + P (5)

80 81 82 83 84 85
= e−8 + e−8 + e−8 + e−8 e−8 + e−8
0! 1! 2! 3! 4! 5!
≈ 0.1912