statistics

Dr. EBTISAM EL.HAMALAWY

MFDS RSC (Edh.), MJDF RSC
(Lon.), BDS (Misr International
University)
Definitions
 Epidemiology:
is the study of the distribution and the
frequency of a disease or injury in a
population and the factors that makes
groups susceptible to disease or injury
It answers questions of:
1. how much of the disease there is
2. Who gets it
3. What specific factors puts patients at risk
Definitions
 Prevalence: if the number of the existing
cases in a population
{number of affected individuals/total
number of people in a population
 Incidence: number of NEW cases or
events during a Specific period of time
Prevalence depends on duration and
pervious incidence because old and
recent cases are included
 Disease definition: what chch or combination
of chch discriminate from non-disease
 Disease occurrence: rate of development in
a population / proportion of the disease in a
population / the influence of age, time , sex,
geography
 Disease causations: the risk factors for
developing the disease
 Disease outcome
 Disease effectiveness of an intervention
 Disease prevention
 Hypothesis:{ testable/ quantifiable/
unambiguous/generalisable}

 Null hypothesis: assume that there is no

effect until this is shown to be
unreasonable where upon its sensible to
assume the opposite, the only other
alternative { working hypothesis}
 Confounding factor:
Positive confounder
Negative confunder
P-value
 5% or 0.05 indicates that there is only a 5%
chance that the value was due to chance
if its more than 0.05 the possibility of chance
cant be ruled out as an explanation of the
observed effect.
 Statistically significant result: suggest that the
chance is not likely
 Relative risk: ratio between
rate of a disease among an exposed person/
unexposed person
Definitions
 Type 1 error: Is the risk of falsely rejecting the
null hypothesis and claiming an effect that
does not exist.
{ the medicine works when in fact it doesn't}
 A 5%or 1/20 risk is often used.
 P value {probability} of making a type 1 error
is less than < 0.05 then the null hypothesises
rejected towards the working hypothesis
 P<0.05 the result is statistically significant
 When the probability of type 1 error is < 100
the outcome is called {HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT}
DEFINITIONS
 TYPE II: Is to incorrectly fail to reject the null
hypothesis . B value
{ assumed that the medicine doesn’t work
when in fact it does}
 Increasing the sample size will decrease the
type 2 error/ decreasing the variability
between assessors and equipment}
 Power of the test: probability of correctly
rejecting the null hypothesis is {1-B}
 To increase the power of an experiment =
increase the sample size
DEFINITIONS
Mean – average value of the sample

Median – The middle value that separates

the higher half from the lower half of the
data set.

Mode – The most frequent value in the

data set.
e.g. Data set of age
{10,20,20,50}
 Mean of this sample = 25 years
 Median = 20
 Mode = 20
 When mean=median=mode, the sample
is normally distributed, it is a normal bell
shaped curve
Definitions
 TEST POSITIVE = { True positive} or { False
negative}

 TEST NEGATIVE= { True negative} or {False positive}

Patient has the disease: { True positive / false

negative}
Patient doesn’t have the disease: { False positive /
true negative}
 True positive: Sick people correctly diagnosed as
sick
 False positive: Healthy people incorrectly identified
as sick
 True negative: Healthy people correctly identified
as healthy
 False negative: Sick people incorrectly identified as
healthy
In general, Positive = identified and negative =
rejected
 True positive = correctly identified
 False positive = incorrectly identified
 True negative = correctly rejected
 False negative = incorrectly rejected
SENSITIVITY
 Sensitivity: TP/ TP+ FN
 Sensitivity (also called the true positive rate, or
the recall rate in some fields) measures the
proportion of actual positives which are
correctly identified as such
 (e.g. the percentage of sick people who are
correctly identified as having the condition).
 {TESTING FOR ORAL CANCER}
SENSITIVITY
 a sensitivity of 100% means that the test
recognizes all actual positives
 a test with high sensitivity can be
considered as a reliable indicator when its
result is negative, since it rarely misses true
positives among those who are actually
positive
 A test with a high sensitivity has a low type
II error rate
positive predictive value
PPV: measures how well the test predicts the
presence of a disease.
PPV: TP/ {TP+FP}

 precision or positive predictive value (ratio of

true positives to combined true and false
positives), which is as much a statement
about the proportion of actual positives in the
population being tested as it is about the test.
SPECIFICITY
 Specificity measures the proportion of
negatives which are correctly identified
as such (e.g. the percentage of healthy
people who are correctly identified as not
having the condition, sometimes called
the true negative rate).
 Specificity relates to the test's ability to
identify negative results
 VVV. IMP Condition
(as determined by "Gold standard")

Condition Condition
positive negative

Precision =
Test
False positive Σ True positive/
outcome True positive
(Type I error) Σ Test outcome p
positive
ositive

Test
outcome Negative
predictive
Test
False negative value =
outcome True negative
(Type II error) Σ True negative/
negative
Σ Test outcome
negative

Sensitivity = Specificity =
Σ True Σ True negative
Accuracy
positiveΣ /Conditi /Σ Condition neg
on positive ative
 A diagnostic test is applied to 2030 people to look for a
disorder with a population
Patients with bowel cancer
(as confirmed on endoscopy)

Condition Positive Condition Negative

Test
True Positive False Positive
Outcome
(TP) = 20 (FP) = 180
Positive
Blood
Screen
Test
Outcome
Test
False Negative True Negative
Outcome
(FN) = 10 (TN) = 1820
Negative
ANSWERS
 Sensitivity= TP / (TP + FN) = 20 / (20 + 10)
≈ 67%
 Specificity= TN / (FP + TN)= 1820 / (180 +
1820) = 91%
 Positive predictive value= TP / (TP + FP)
= 20 / (20 + 180) = 10%
 Negative predictive value= TN / (FN + TN)
= 1820 / (10 + 1820) ≈ 99.5%
THANK YOU