1st plot…..

In Figure 2.3.3 we look at the outgoing radiation from the earth (the earthshine), as if we are
sitting at the outer edge of the atmosphere and looking down at the earth. We have identified the
main components that are responsible for the absorption at a given wavelength and we have also
shown the wavelengths at which the earth is transmitting. Let us now increase the CO2 level in
the atmosphere. We see that at 15 µm less radiation will pass, which will increase the
temperature of the surface of the earth, and the corresponding blackbody radiation spectrum will
effectively shift to correspond to a higher temperature. The net result is that more energy will be
emitted at shorter wavelengths and less at the longer wavelengths. These shifts would
theoretically continue until the total emitted energy equals the energy received from the sun.

Figure 2..

Plot 3:

The most famous curve indicating climate change is the “ hockey stick curve” from the 2001
IPCC report [2.4], which is shown in Figure 2.4.3. This figure shows the deviation from the
1961–1990 average temperature on the Northern hemisphere. The importance of the hockey stick
is the suggestion that our current temperatures are outside the “normal” range. The fluctuations
are large, in particular as the older temperature data are not as reliable as the data we can obtain
now, creating significant uncertainty in the data.

Millennial Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstruction (blue — tree rings, corals, ice
cores, and historical records) and instrumental data (red) from AD 1000 to 1999. A smoother
version of the NH series (black) and two standard error limits (shaded in gray) are shown

Plot 4: mean sea level rise

Annual deviations from averages of the global mean sea level (mm). The red curve shows
reconstructed sea level fields since 1870; the blue curve shows coastal tide gauge measurements
since 1950, and the black curve is based on satellite altimetry
Plot 5: ocean heat content

Figure 2.4.5 shows that the heat content of the ocean is steadily increasing. Consistent with
global atmospheric warming, most of the heat is stored in the upper 700 m and slowly mixes to
greater depths. If we assume a linear increase with a rate of 0.43 × 10 22 J per year in the 1955–
2010 period, the total increase in the heat content is 24 × 10 22 J and the mean increase in
temperature is 0.09°C.

Time series for the ocean heat content for the 0–700 m below the surface (red) and 0–2,000 m
(black) layers based on running pentadal (five-year) analyses. The reference period is 1955–
2006.

Ice cores:

Data on CO2 levels can also be obtained from ice core data. Ice cores represent the accumulation
of snow for thousands of years. With each snowfall, small gas bubbles get trapped in these cores.
Analyzing the composition of the gas in the bubbles as a function of the depth of the core sample
gives us detailed information about the concentration of various gasses in the air at the time these
bubbles were formed.

Plot 6; carbondioxide concentration

The data in figure is showing that over the last 600,000 years the temperatures and CO2 levels
have fluctuated within a very narrow range [2.2]. One can clearly see the interglacial warm
periods. In these periods CO2 levels are higher and volumes of ice are smaller. The current
greenhouse gas levels, indicated by stars, are significantly higher than the levels seen in the last
600,000 years.

Variations (in thousand years) of deuterium (δD; black), a proxy for local temperature; δ18O
marine records (dark grey), a proxy for global ice volume fluctuations; and the atmospheric
concentrations of the greenhouse gasses CO2 (red), CH4 (blue), and nitrous oxide (N2O; green).
Data derived from air trapped within ice cores from Antarctica and from recent atmospheric
measurements. The shading indicates the last interglacial warm periods. Downward trends in the
benthic δ18O curve reflect increasing ice volumes on land. The stars and labels indicate
atmospheric concentrations in 2000.
Different ipcc model plots

how an increasing number of these interactions have been included in the subsequent climate
models [2.2]. Early climate models only considered sunshine, CO2, and rain. In these models,
the cooling effects of clouds, and many other effects were ignored. Over the years, more
interactions, as described in Figure 2.5.4, have been included in the models. The most recent
additions are the coupling of the atmosphere with the carbon cycle of the earth (see the next
chapter) and a coupling with vegetation. At this point it is important to note that improving
climate modeling is not merely a matter of increasing grid resolution by using bigger computers
and adding more interaction

Plot 7: temperature anamoly with anthropogenic and natural forcing

Comparison between global mean surface temperature anomalies (°C) from observations and
climate model simulations. The black line represents experimental data. The thin yellow lines are
the results of 58 simulations produced by 14 models with both anthropogenic and natural
forcings. The red line is the average of these 58 simulations.

Example:

major volcanic eruptions such as that of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991 increase the amount of dust in the
atmosphere, which in turn leads to a faster increase in nighttime compared to daytime
temperatures, a larger degree of warming in the Arctic, and small, short-term global cooling with
subsequent recovery.

Plot 8: temp anamoly without anthropogenic emission

Comparison between global mean surface temperature anomalies (°C) from observations and
climate model simulations without anthropogenic CO2 emissions. The black line represents
experimental data. The thin blue lines are the results of 19 simulations produced by 5 models
with only natural forcings. The thick blue line is the average of these 19 simulations. The thin
vertical lines indicate volcanic events.