2 Month Sales exponential smoothi3-period moving ave

1 52 #N/A
2 47 52 #N/A
3 62 50.75 #N/A
4 54 53.5625 53.666667
5 70 53.671875 54.333333
6 62 57.75390625 62
7 65 58.8154296875 62
8 65 60.361572265625 65.666667
Sep 61.5211791992188 64.000
65
State of nature
11 Decision Alternative s1 s2 s2
New Restaurant -80000 20000 160000
Expand -40000 20000 100000

160000 does not apply 80 U(M)=pU(best payoff)+(1-p)U(worst payoff)

100000 0.9 72 U(100000)=(0.9)U(160000)+(1-0.9)U(-80000)
20000 0.7 56 =(0.9)(80)+(0.1)(0)
20000 0.7 56 U(100000)= 72
-40000 0.4 32
-80000 does not apply 0

13 Expected Utility Approach: EXPAND walang probability na given???

New Restaurant 0 56 80 40.8

Expand 32 56 72 51.2

Expected Value Approach NEW RESTAURANT walang probability na given???

New Restaurant -80000 20000 160000 22000

Expand -40000 20000 100000 20000

16 CANDIDATE B
Candidate A CBAA CEAT CTHM CLAC Row Min
CBAA 0 -1500 -800 2000 -1500
CEAT 3000 -500 500 -1000 -1000
CTHM 1000 -2500 0 2000 -2500
CLAC 2000 2000 1000 1500 1000
Column Max 3000 2000 1000 2000

Maximin 1000
minimax 1000
 Candidate A CLAC
Candidate B CTHM
21

21 Current Assets Trend Projection Squared

Year Error
(in million $) Forecast Error
1 1,990.00 2,018.09 - 28.09 789.10
2 2,280.00 2,247.98 32.02 1,025.16
3 2,328.00 2,477.87 - 149.87 22,461.83
4 2,635.00 2,707.76 - 72.76 5,294.55
5 3,249.00 2,937.65 311.35 96,935.99
6 3,310.00 3,167.55 142.45 20,293.30
7 3,256.00 3,397.44 - 141.44 20,004.24
8 3,533.00 3,627.33 - 94.33 8,897.63
9 3,826.00 3,857.22 - 31.22 974.57
10 4,119.00 4,087.11 31.89 1,017.03
11 4,317.00
12 4,546.89
MSE 17,769.34

229.8909090909 1788.2
b1 b0

Using Trend Projection as the forecast model, the forecast of Current Assets (in million $)
for Year 11 is 4,317.00 and for Year 12 is 4,546.89.
The MSE is 17,769.34.

Player B Row
Player A
b1 b2 b3 Minimum
a1 0 -1 2 -1
a2 5 4 3 3
a3 2 3 -4 -4
Column Maximum 5 4 3

MAXIMIN PAYOFF 3 a2
MINIMAX PAYOFF 3 b3

VALUE OF THE GAME 3

OPTIMAL STRATEGY Player A should choose Strategy a2 and expect an increase of at least 3.
Player B should choose Strategy b3 and expect a decrease of no more than 3.
1-p)U(worst payoff)
00)+(1-0.9)U(-80000)

bability na given???

bability na given???
no more than 3.