SIMULATION of

p and q
300,000 N
0.008 p
0.82 q
70000
results check: S(t+1) = p*N + (q-p)*Q(t) - (q/N)*Q(t)^2
Year Sales Cum. Sales 60000
1989 0 0

SALES
1990 2,400 2,400
1991 4,333 6,733 = 50000
1992 7,743 14,476
1993 13,582 28,058
1994 23,032 51,090 40000
1995 36,751 87,840
1996 52,636 140,477
1997 62,528 203,005
30000
1998 54,597 257,602
1999 30,192 287,794 20000
2000 9,699 297,493
2001 2,058 299,552
2002 371 299,922 10000
2003 64 299,987
2004 11 299,998
2005 2 300,000 0
2006 0 300,000 ar 89 90 91 92 93
Ye 19 19 19 19 19 19
2007 0 300,000
2008 0 300,000
2009 0 300,000
2010 0 300,000
2011 0 300,000
2012 0 300,000
2013 0 300,000
2014 0 300,000
2015 0 300,000
2016 0 300,000
2017 0 300,000
2018 - 300,000
2019 - 300,000
2020 - 300,000
2021 - 300,000
2022 - 300,000
2023 - 300,000
2024 - 300,000
2025 - 300,000
2026 - 300,000
2027 - 300,000
2028 - 300,000
2029 - 300,000
2030 - 300,000
2031 - 300,000
2032 - 300,000
2033 - 300,000
2034 - 300,000
2035 - 300,000
2036 - 300,000
2037 - 300,000
2038 - 300,000
2039 - 300,000
2040 - 300,000
2041 - 300,000
2042 - 300,000
2043 - 300,000
2044 - 300,000
2045 - 300,000
 Impact of "p" and "q"
70000 350000

60000 300000

50000 250000

40000 200000

30000 150000
Sales Cum. Sales
20000 100000

10000 50000

0 0
ar
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Ye 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
YEAR
 SIMULATION of
p and q
103,000,000 N Impac
0.0039 p
0.753 q 70000
results check: S(t+1) = p*N + (q-p)*Q(t) - (q/N)*Q(t)^2
Year N Sales Cum. Sales
60000

SALES
1989 103,000,000 0 0
1990 105,060,000.00 401,700 401,700 50000
1991 107,161,200.00 709,491 1,111,191
1992 109,304,424.00 1,241,646 2,352,836
1993 111,490,512.48 2,150,661 4,503,497 40000
1994 113,720,322.73 3,671,403 8,174,900
1995 115,994,729.18 6,124,818 14,299,718
1996 118,314,623.77 9,836,868 24,136,585 30000
1997 120,680,916.24 14,834,412 38,970,998
1998 123,094,534.57 20,187,516 59,158,514
1999 125,556,425.26 23,386,991 82,545,505
20000
2000 128,067,553.76 21,460,318 104,005,823
2001 130,628,904.84 14,808,167 118,813,990 10000
2002 133,241,482.94 8,138,041 126,952,031
2003 135,906,312.60 4,536,933 131,488,964
2004 138,624,438.85 3,235,378 134,724,342 0
2005 141,396,927.62 2,869,359 137,593,701 ar 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96
2006 144,224,866.18 2,801,632 140,395,333 Ye 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19
2007 147,109,363.50 2,822,006 143,217,339
2008 150,051,550.77 2,868,337 146,085,676
2009 153,052,581.79 2,922,842 149,008,518
2010 156,113,633.42 2,980,490 151,989,008
2011 159,235,906.09 3,039,871 155,028,879
2012 162,420,624.21 3,100,603 158,129,482
2013 165,669,036.70 3,162,597 161,292,079
2014 168,982,417.43 3,225,844 164,517,922
2015 172,362,065.78 3,290,359 167,808,281
2016 175,809,307.09 3,356,166 171,164,447
2017 179,325,493.24 3,423,289 174,587,736
2018 182,912,003.10 3,491,755 178,079,491
2019 186,570,243.16 3,561,590 181,641,081
2020 190,301,648.03 3,632,822 185,273,902
2021 194,107,680.99 3,705,478 188,979,380
2022 197,989,834.61 3,779,588 192,758,968
2023 201,949,631.30 3,855,179 196,614,147
2024 205,988,623.92 3,932,283 200,546,430
2025 210,108,396.40 4,010,929 204,557,359
2026 214,310,564.33 4,091,147 208,648,506
2027 218,596,775.62 4,172,970 212,821,476
2028 222,968,711.13 4,256,430 217,077,906
2029 227,428,085.35 4,341,558 221,419,464
2030 231,976,647.06 4,428,389 225,847,853
2031 236,616,180.00 4,516,957 230,364,810
2032 241,348,503.60 4,607,296 234,972,106
2033 246,175,473.67 4,699,442 239,671,548
2034 251,098,983.15 4,793,431 244,464,979
2035 256,120,962.81 4,889,300 249,354,279
2036 261,243,382.07 4,987,086 254,341,364
2037 266,468,249.71 5,086,827 259,428,192
2038 271,797,614.70 5,188,564 264,616,756
2039 277,233,566.99 5,292,335 269,909,091
2040 282,778,238.33 5,398,182 275,307,272
2041 288,433,803.10 5,506,145 280,813,418
2042 294,202,479.16 5,616,268 286,429,686
2043 300,086,528.75 5,728,594 292,158,280
2044 306,088,259.32 5,843,166 298,001,446
2045 312,210,024.51 5,960,029 303,961,474
 Impact of "p" and "q"
350000

300000

250000

200000

150000
Sales Cum. Sales
100000

50000

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3
99 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 201 201 201 201
YEAR
 Price Sensistivity α 0.5
Advertising Sensitivit β 0.3
Relative Price Relative Advertising
x_t=1+α(abs(p_t-p_(t-1
1 1 1 The equation is
2 1 1.15
3 0.99 1.32
4 0.99 1.52
5 0.98 1.74
6 0.97 2.01
7 0.96 2.31
8 0.95 2.66
9 0.94 3.06
10 0.93 3.52

11 0.92 4.05
12 0.91 4.65
13 0.9 5.35
14 0.89 6.15
15 0.88 7.07
16 0.87 8.14
17 0.86 9.36
x_t=1+α(abs(p_t-p_(t-1) )/p_(t-1) )+β(((A_t-A_(t-1) ))/A_(t-1) )

so if price decreases, x increases and if advertising expenditure

decreases relative to previous time period, adoptions would decrease.
 SIMULATION of
p and q
103,000,000 N
0.0039 p
0.753 q
2 alpha (Price Sensitivity)
3 beta (Advertising Sensitivity)

results check: S(t+1) = (p*N + (q-p)*Q(t) - (q/N)*Q(t)^2)*x(t)

Year N Sales Cum. Sales Price Advt
1 103,000,000 0 0 1 1
2 105,060,000.00 582,465 582,465 1 1.15
3 107,161,200.00 868,936 1,451,401 0.99 1.32
4 109,304,424.00 1,490,371 2,941,771 0.99 1.52
5 111,490,512.48 2,570,350 5,512,122 0.98 1.74
6 113,720,322.73 4,358,735 9,870,857 0.97 2.01
7 115,994,729.18 7,192,609 17,063,466 0.96 2.31
8 118,314,623.77 11,344,494 28,407,960 0.95 2.66
9 120,680,916.24 16,605,692 45,013,653 0.94 3.06
10 123,094,534.57 21,547,536 66,561,188 0.93 3.52
11 125,556,425.26 #VALUE! #VALUE! 0.92 4.05
12 128,067,553.76 #VALUE! #VALUE! 0.91 4.65
13 130,628,904.84 #VALUE! #VALUE! 0.9 5.35
14 133,241,482.94 #VALUE! #VALUE! 0.89 6.15
15 135,906,312.60 #VALUE! #VALUE! 0.88 7.07
16 138,624,438.85 #VALUE! #VALUE! 0.87 8.14
17 141,396,927.62 #VALUE! #VALUE! 0.86 9.36