Event Program

June 3 - 5, 2014
Indianapolis, Indiana
 International
Applied Reliability Symposium
North America 2014
The International Applied Reliability Symposium provides a forum for expert presenters from
industry and government to come together with reliability practitioners from all over the world to discuss
the application of reliability principles to meet real-world challenges. The majority of the presenters
have been applying reliability, maintainability and related techniques in their day-to-day work for years,
and the Symposium has been designed to encourage results-oriented presentations with interactive
discussions about best practices, success stories and lessons learned.

Symposium Theme: "Sharing applications, success stories and lessons learned in reliability
and maintainability engineering."

The presentations cover a range of subjects, including but not limited to:

● Reliability Program Planning ● Reliability Growth Analysis

● Design for Reliability (DFR) ● Software Reliability
● Accelerated Life Testing, HALT and ESS ● Reliability, Availability, Maintainability (RAM)
● Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) ● Optimized Maintenance Planning
● Life Data Analysis ● Reliability Investment and Life Cycle Costs

June 3 - 5, 2014
Indianapolis, Indiana
North America 2014 Sponsors
Diamond Sponsor

Technical Sponsor

Organizers
 North America 2014 Venue
The 2014 ARS North America will be held at the beautiful Indianapolis Marriott Downtown in Indianapolis,
Indiana. (Details on page 4.)

Program Highlights
30 Presentations: The 2014 ARS North America program offers a wide variety of results-oriented
presentations by actual practitioners in industry and government. 30 presentations are offered in two
simultaneous tracks. You can attend sessions in either track.

2 Tutorials: The program also offers two tutorial by experts in the field of reliability analysis:
Life Data Analysis for Reliability by Julio Pulido of ReliaSoft Corporation
Good FMEAs, Bad FMEAs, What’s the Difference? by Carl Carlson of ReliaSoft Corporation

Collaboration International Awareness

Common Challenges

Networking
Real World Applications Innovation

Reliability Engineering Forum

Sharing Solutions

The Symposium is held annually at multiple locations throughout the world. Other 2014 scheduled events include:
Paris, France - April 23 - 25, 2014 Shanghai, China - November 5 - 7, 2014
São Paulo, Brasil - May 7 - 9, 2014 Bangalore, India - November 12 - 14, 2014
2014 ARS North America
Tuesday - June 3rd Wednesday
Blue Room Red Room Blue Room
7:00 - 8:00 Registration and Check-in from 7:00 to 8:30 a.m.
Continental breakfast available. Optimal Use of Information to Facilitate
8:00 - 8:30 (You also have the option to check in on Monday from 4 - 7 p.m.) and Improve Reliability and Maintainability
Analyses
Stefan Pleshoyano
8:30 - 9:00 Welcome Address PBM inc.
Blue-S5

9:00 - 9:10 10 Minute Break

Getting the Biggest Bang for Your Proving the Case for Adopting Combined Application of Reliability and Engineering
Reliability Buck Stress ESS Techniques Tools from Product Development to
Stan Stephenson Tom Peters Volume Production
9:10 - 10:10 Halliburton Qualmark Corporation Ruxandra Bantoiu
ITF Laboratories
Blue-S1 Red-S1 Blue-S6

10:10 - 10:30 20 Minute Break

Dealing with an Unrealistic Specification Warship Modernization — Design for Better Field Reliability with Big Data
Harland MacKenzie Reliability, Maintainability, Life Cycle and Analytics
Dana - Power Technologies Group Obsolescence Management Georgios Sarakakis
10:30 - 11:30 Xiangqun Qiu Tesla Motors
Department of National Defense,
Blue-S2 Canada Red-S2 Blue-S7
11:30 - 1:00 1 Hour 30 Minute Lunch Break

Survival Regression: From Bio-Statistics Implementing a Global Equipment Modeling Software Reliability Growth
to Reliability Engineering Reliability Program Jack Olivieri
Vasiliy V. Krivtsov Ronald F. Reimer MITRE Corporation
1:00 - 2:00 Ford Motor Company Eli Lilly and Company

Blue-S3 Red-S3 Blue-S8

2:00 - 2:20 20 Minute Break

A Discussion of Big Data and Medical Reliability Maturity Assessment (RMA) As Developing a Reliability Improvement
Device Reliability Part of the Design for Reliability Process Plan for a Main PCB Assembly to Reduce
Gary Berg Andre Kleyner Overall Warranty Costs
2:20 - 3:20 Medtronic, Inc. Delphi Electronics & Safety Mohammad M. Hasan
Nilfisk-Advance, Inc.
Blue-S4 Red-S4 Blue-S9

3:20 - 3:30 10 Minute Break

Life Data Analysis for Reliability Good FMEAs, Bad FMEAs —

Julio Pulido What’s the Difference?
ReliaSoft Corporation Carl Carlson
3:30 - 4:30 ReliaSoft Corporation

4:30 - 5:00 Blue-Tutorial 1

Welcome Reception
5:00 - 6:00 (for attendee and a guest)

6:00 - 9:00

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 Symposium Program Matrix
June 4th . Thursday - June 5th
Red Room Blue Room Red Room
Continental breakfast available.

Reducing the Validation Cost of an Engineering Applying Design of Experiments for Selection Innovative Permanent Downhole Gauge —
Design Change When a Failure Occurs on a of Materials and Components in Product Road to Reliability
Censored Test Development Pankaj Shrivastava
Jeff Snow John J. Paschkewitz Halliburton
Magna Powertrain Watlow
Red-S5 Blue-S10 Red-S10

Reliability As a Life Cycle Cost Enabler Managing Reliability Data So Engineers Can Reliability Assessment of a Low Temperature
Andrew Foote Use It Lead-Free Solder Used in a High g-Load
Alion Science and Technology Corporation Carl Baver Environment
Rolls-Royce Reinaldo Gonzalez
GE Healthcare
Red-S6 Blue-S11 Red-S11

Availability Improvement, Planning and Customer/Supplier Collaborative Accelerated Underground Electrical Cable Fault Forecasting
Forecasting Life Testing Utilizing the Crow-AMSAA Reliability Growth
James B. Humphries Mark Wagner Model
Fluor Watlow Electric Manufacturing Company Yancy Gill
Salt River Project
Red-S7 Blue-S12 Red-S12

Electric Vehicles Regenerative Braking Duty A Review of Reliability Tools and Paradigms for Reliability Growth Planning for the Army —
Cycle Development and Validation Effectiveness and Best Practices Models, Issues and Lessons Learned
Mohammad Hijawi James McLeish Daniel Kosinski
Chrysler Group DfR Solutions US Army, TARDEC

Red-S8 Blue-S13 Red-S13

Agile Implementation of Reliability in an Time-based Simulation in Design for Reliability Design for Service Life
Organization and Robustness Nematollah Bidokhti
Daniel Lee Nicholas Lambert Cisco Systems
Ops A La Carte Ridgetop Group, Inc.

Red-S9 Blue-S14 Red-S14

A Practical Methodology for Measuring Success Reliability Assessment of Your Storeroom to

of Organizational Design and Synthesis Using Support Operations
Axiomatic Design and Design for Six Sigma H.P. Slater
Metrics MRG (Management Resources Group)
James M. Wasiloff
US DoD, TACOM LCMC Blue-S15 Red-S15
Blue-Tutorial 2

Awards Dinner and Keynote Address

(for attendee and a guest)

Advancing Aviation Safety Through Increased Operational Knowledge

Andrew Cosner
Head of Safety & Product Assurance, Rolls-Royce North America

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 Venue and Hotel Accommodations
The 2014 ARS North America will be held at the Indianapolis Marriott Downtown. For accommodations, please make
reservations on your own, either at the Marriott or another hotel of your choosing.
At the Marriott, a rate of US$175.00 for Single/Double (US$95.00 for government employees) is available to Symposium
participants. To be eligible for this rate, rooms must be reserved by May 9th. Please refer to “ReliaSoft Corporation” and/or the
“Applied Reliability Symposium” when making your reservations.

• Address: Indianapolis Marriott Downtown, 350 West Maryland Street, Indianapolis, IN 46225
• Telephone Reservations: 1.317.822.3500
• Reservations Link: https://resweb.passkey.com/go/arsjune2014symposium
• Website: http://www.IndyMarriott.com

NOTE: Given seasonal occupancy rate conditions, the hotel might engage in promotions that
occasionally offer a lower rate. Be sure to check the online rates before booking to take advantage
of any additional discounts that may be available.

Make the most of your ARS experience...

Choose the sessions that you will attend.

You can attend sessions in either track, and it is not necessary to register for selected
sessions. Remember to vote for your three favorite presentations on Thursday.

Take advantage of opportunities to converse with colleagues.

The catered breaks between sessions, welcome reception on Wednesday and awards dinner
on Thursday all provide good opportunities to engage with fellow reliability practitioners.

Learn about available solutions.

Explore the exhibit booths to learn about a variety of available products and services.

Tuesday — June 3, 2014

Welcome Address 8:30 to 9:00 a.m. on Tuesday
To begin the event program, Pantelis Vassiliou will represent the Symposium’s organizers by delivering a brief welcome address.
Pantelis Vassiliou is President and CEO of ReliaSoft Corporation. He directs and coordinates ReliaSoft’s R&D efforts to deliver
state-of-the-art software tools for applying reliability engineering concepts and methodologies. He also consults, trains and
lectures on reliability engineering and related topics to Fortune 1000 companies worldwide. Mr. Vassiliou is the original architect of
the Weibull++® software and is ReliaSoft’s founder. He holds an M.S. in Reliability Engineering from the University of Arizona.

Session 1 9:10 to 10:10 a.m. on Tuesday

„„ Blue Room Stan Stephenson, Phillip Rogers, Matthew Margis and Bennedict Portillo - Halliburton
Getting the Biggest Bang for Your Reliability Buck
Since no company has infinite resources to address every reliability issue on every existing product, some method must be
developed to focus resources where they will provide the biggest return on reliability investment. If you conduct a lifecycle cost
analysis over the depreciable life of a product, the components or systems contributing the most to the lifecycle costs identify
where your reliability efforts should be spent. This presentation will demonstrate the development of lifecycle costs on a product,
identify items contributing the most to the lifecycle costs and identify efforts taken to reduce the cost of each. For one component,
there was a 50% variation of average life between four suppliers. A reliability growth tool will be used to demonstrate one method
to help identify the variability between suppliers and to identify an optimal material requirement affecting the life of this component.
Relianomics-based calculations will also be demonstrated for determining the optimal design of one of the components.

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 Tuesday — June 3, 2014
Session 1 (continued) 9:10 to 10:10 a.m. on Tuesday
zz Red Room Tom Peters and Neill Doertenbach - Qualmark Corporation
Proving the Case for Adopting Combined Stress ESS Techniques
As companies strive to reduce warranty costs, it is becoming clear that an Environmental Stress Screening (ESS) program limited
to simple run-in or burn-in is inadequate. A combination of aggressive thermal and vibration stressing is required to achieve the
higher reliability levels required. Burn-in is only a fraction of what is needed to significantly change field failure rates. An enhanced
ESS that includes a combination of thermal cycling, at high rates of change, with 6-DOF (degrees of freedom) RS (repetitive
shock) vibration will capture many more defective or marginal products. The results of this enhanced ESS will not only identify
and remove more products with potential early life failures, but will also expose weaknesses that can result in later life warranty
failures. This ESS can be completed in a much shorter time than a conventional burn-in.
This presentation uses calculations and experimental data to demonstrate the effectiveness of a combined stress environment for
ESS. It will review case studies describing reliability improvements experienced by using this approach and the results of a direct
comparison study between Highly Accelerated Stress Audits (HASA) versus burn-in in a high volume power supply manufacturer.
This enhanced ESS program is a much more effective mechanism for exposing weak or defective components.

Session 2 10:30 to 11:30 a.m. on Tuesday

„„ Blue Room Harland MacKenzie - Dana - Power Technologies Group
Dealing with an Unrealistic Specification
Sooner or later, we all will run into a new product performance or reliability specification that seems unreasonable. The foundation
for these requirements can come from many areas and may not always best represent the voice of the customer. Unrealistically
harsh specifications seem to be the new trend in industry, but requirements that may be considered too soft are also a concern.
Historically, field data has been used as a guide in the development of product specifications, where new designs were seen as an
opportunity to increase reliability in suspect or weak systems.
This presentation will provide some guidance on several different approaches for dealing with unrealistic specifications. The focus
will be data-driven analysis, solutions and preparing the results for discussion. The backdrop used in the examples will look at the
tourist’s desire for accurate prediction of eruption times of the Old Faithful Geyser in Yellowstone National Park.

zz Red Room Xiangqun Qiu - Department of National Defense, Canada

Warship Modernization — Design for Reliability, Maintainability, Life Cycle and Obsolescence Management
Using the Royal Canadian Navy warship modernization program as an example, this presentation illustrates Reliability and
Maintainability (R&M) challenges and how these challenges can benefit from more effective R&M consideration in the early
design. One of the major challenges is that while warship modernization uses commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) solutions as much
as possible, the goal is to create a system that operates longer and requires less maintenance. This requires higher component
reliability and system availability, as well as sound maintenance planning, life cycle and obsolescence management.

Session 3 1:00 to 2:00 p.m. on Tuesday

„„ Blue Room Vasiliy V. Krivtsov - Ford Motor Company
Survival Regression: From Bio-Statistics to Reliability Engineering
Reliability analysis of field data typically involves modeling the survival probability as a function of the vehicle’s time-in-service
and mileage. In certain cases, however, a need arises to additionally model the survival probability as a function of fixed and/or
time-dependent covariates. Examples of the former may include “assembly plant,” “production month,” “days before sale,” etc. The
latter could be “cumulative exposure before and after a TSB,” “seasonality,” etc.
While survival regression models are quite popular in medical and pharmaceutical studies, their application in engineering data
analysis is much less common. The purpose of the discussion is to show the practical benefits of using such models in automotive
reliability data analysis.

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 Tuesday — June 3, 2014
Session 3 (continued) 1:00 to 2:00 p.m. on Tuesday
zz Red Room Ronald F. Reimer and Daniel C. Carroll - Eli Lilly and Company
Implementing a Global Equipment Reliability Program
Over the years, we at Eli Lilly and Company have implemented various one-off maintenance and reliability programs at individual
sites to improve our manufacturing equipment reliability. However, these programs were mostly people-dependent. When the
program champion left, the program would often decay or even disappear. Recently, we have regrouped and developed a global
equipment reliability program for all of our manufacturing sites. Three major components of this global program are a critical mass
of reliability knowledge, reliability demonstration projects and a flexible, but structured, roll-out plan. The reliability knowledge
includes our equipment reliability model, the bathtub curve, culture and metrics. This knowledge is encoded in our Equipment
Reliability Book and in our reliability training classes to help ensure long-term exposure and organizational commitment.

Session 4 2:20 to 3:20 p.m. on Tuesday

„„ Blue Room Gary Berg and Chao Wang - Medtronic, Inc.
A Discussion of Big Data and Medical Device Reliability
When software is embedded into medical devices, how do we know that the software will be reliable? Software reliability is
typically assessed by fitting various models to software defect data; the defects are found by executing software or system
reliability tests. Reliability assessments made through this process are accurate only to the degree that the software reliability
testing represents how the software is actually used. In many cases, we do not know exactly how software will be used, and
therefore we cannot accurately predict its reliability. The concept of an operational profile has been introduced and applied to
address this issue. However, operational profiles are limited in their ability to demonstrate extremely high reliability levels, which
are typically required for medical devices. The explosion of device and patient data collected within medical devices, which
has occurred in recent years, has created a potential to use this data in reliability testing. This presentation will: 1) Explain the
weaknesses in current software reliability testing. 2) Propose a new approach to leverage big data in reliability testing of medical
device software. 3) Describe a system that results in a highly resolute and model-free reliability assessment. 4) Introduce a new
role of the software reliability engineer leading this effort.

zz Red Room Andre Kleyner - Delphi Electronics & Safety

Reliability Maturity Assessment (RMA) As Part of the Design for Reliability Process
In an organization, many activities focus on assessing the reliability of a product being designed. However, there have been
recent efforts in assessing the maturity of the organization itself and its processes in regards to reliability. Reliability Maturity
Assessment (RMA) is a valuable and effective tool for assessing the maturity of an organization in regards to its design processes
and its ability to produce reliable products. Employing RMA contributes to risk identification and mitigation early in the product
development process and can be an important part of the Design for Reliability process. This presentation will also cover the
areas where ReliaSoft’s Synthesis Platform can provide help in assessing the reliability maturity of an organization.

Tutorial 1 3:30 to 5:00 p.m. on Tuesday

„„ Blue Room Julio Pulido - ReliaSoft Corporation
Life Data Analysis for Reliability
This tutorial introduces the terminology, models and techniques used in reliability for life data analysis. Probabilistic lifetime models
and statistical methods are presented for reliability and lifetime modeling situations. The purpose is to provide attendees with
basic coverage of the traditional, fundamental probability models used to describe, improve and optimize system reliability and
maintainability. This coverage requires the discussion of some basic concepts from probability and distribution theory. Emphasis is
placed on identifying the key assumptions associated with each model and their practical application.

Welcome Reception 5:00 to 6:00 p.m. on Tuesday

A welcome reception on Tuesday evening (with hosted bar and light appetizers) provides a relaxing way to end the first day of the
Symposium. This casual gathering will be held from 5:00 to 6:00 p.m.

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 Wednesday — June 4, 2014
Session 5 8:00 to 9:00 a.m. on Wednesday
„„ Blue Room Stefan Pleshoyano - PBM inc.
Optimal Use of Information to Facilitate and Improve Reliability and Maintainability Analyses
Information related to equipment maintainability should always be considered a strategic asset for any business operating in a
competitive environment. It is crucial to use this information appropriately, because it is a key ingredient in any decision-making
process built on fact-based rather than impression-based management.
Using some practical examples of analyses conducted for businesses in the manufacturing industries and hydroelectric utilities,
this presentation explains how to identify, extract, process and structure information for reliability and maintainability analyses.
It highlights how more precise information improves the accuracy of forecasting models by making it easier to distinguish
random failures (specific to the design of an asset) from chronic failures (resulting from faulty maintenance). The presentation
also highlights how better structured information can make it easier to establish cause-effect relationships between the failures
observed on the assets and the impact measured on the reliability and availability of the systems to which these assets are
attached.

zz Red Room Jeff Snow - Magna Powertrain

Reducing the Validation Cost of an Engineering Design Change When a Failure Occurs on a Censored Test
When an unexpected failure occurs during a long durability censored test, a design change is required. Relying on the same long
durability test will jeopardize the timing of the project to validate the new design before it can be released into production. Since
failures have occurred on the censored test then this valuable “Life” information can be utilized along with accelerated stress
testing and substantiation testing to shorten the validation cycle and confirm that the new design will not only be better than the
old design, but it will also successfully complete the long durability test without failure.

Session 6 9:10 to 10:10 a.m. on Wednesday

„„ Blue Room Ruxandra Bantoiu - ITF Laboratories
Application of Reliability and Engineering Tools from Product Development to Volume Production
Reliability and engineering tools such as DOE, FMEA and FRACAS represent great aids in the transition from initial prototype
design to manufacturing in large volume as production scales.
This presentation examines how such tools are implemented in an organization that specializes in research and development,
prototyping and volume product manufacture. Each gate has its specific requirements and therefore the reliability and engineering
tools have to be understood and applied accordingly. The reliability growth and robust design are implemented through loops
of continuous improvement with introduction of concepts of Design Robustness Testing (DRT) and Risk Assessment in Design
Similarity (RADS). This vision is the key of a successful and reliable business process.

zz Red Room Andrew Foote - Alion Science and Technology Corporation

Reliability As a Life Cycle Cost Enabler
The US Department of Defense’s “Better Buying Power 2.0” initiatives focus on seven areas to achieve greater efficiency and
productivity in defense spending, specifically: 1) achieve affordable programs; 2) control costs throughout the product life cycle;
3) incentivize productivity and innovation in industry and government; 4) eliminate unproductive processes and bureaucracy;
5) promote effective competition; 6) improve tradecraft in acquisition of services; and 7) improve the professionalism of the total
acquisition workforce. Many of these focus areas can be enabled with better attention to Design for Reliability, Maintainability, and
Supportability (RMS) best practices.
Effective total life cycle (cost) management requires a consistent, long-term focused effort. A continuous assessment process
enables an organization to continue to define, document and address the capability and limitations imposed by the level of RMS
on the system with an emphasis on the operational impacts. Continuous assessment is only possible when an organization
prepares for this activity by implementing a data collection process (e.g., FRACAS) that will thoroughly feed the raw data
required to continuously monitor metrics of merit to that organization and its products. Other reliability, maintainability and
supportability tools that enable better life cycle cost management include: integrated data management system, condition based
maintenance/reliability centered maintenance, reliability growth, root cause analysis, Weibull analysis, life cycle cost/affordability
analysis, obsolescence and/or diminishing manufacturing sources and material shortages, and life extension assessment.

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 Wednesday — June 4, 2014
Session 7 10:30 to 11:30 a.m. on Wednesday
„„ Blue Room Georgios Sarakakis - Tesla Motors
Better Field Reliability with Big Data Analytics
In this presentation, we will describe how the reliability team at Tesla Motors uses extensive analytical data sets (“big data”) across
its vehicle fleet to enhance decision making in field reliability, proactively drive field reliability improvement projects and influence
the Design for Reliability (DFR) activities for next generation vehicles.

zz Red Room James B. Humphries - Fluor

Availability Improvement, Planning and Forecasting
This presentation provides a proven step-by-step process for quantifying and planning availability improvements in industrial
facilities. The approach outlined has been developed and applied by Fluor Corporation to assist numerous clients who need to
debottleneck facilities and achieve plant throughput improvements with a minimum of capital expenditure. It addresses availability
improvements that are achievable through operational changes, component and configuration enhancement, maintenance
process improvement, and training of operations and maintenance personnel.

Session 8 1:00 to 2:00 p.m. on Wednesday

„„ Blue Room Jack Olivieri - MITRE Corporation
Modeling Software Reliability Growth
Over the past decade, there has been an increasing emphasis placed on software reliability and modeling in the development
and implementation of many commercial and defense-related programs. This is due to the widespread recognition that software
can account for 50% or more of total system failures. Despite this recognition, a lack of comprehensive, standardized, calibrated
models based on product metrics exists when compared to hardware modeling and predictions. In particular, software reliability
growth modeling is one area that has needed more attention. There are many accurate, repeatable and well-documented
standards for predicting hardware reliability and failure rates. In addition, several well-known methodologies exist for hardware
reliability growth. Much less obvious are models to determine software reliability and future growth. With software contributing an
ever increasing role in system development, it is vital to understand software reliability and growth. This presentation describes,
compares and contrasts software methodologies and standards to measure software reliability growth.

zz Red Room Mohammad Hijawi - Chrysler Group

Electric Vehicles Regenerative Braking Duty Cycle Development and Validation
Regenerative braking is essential for electric vehicles because it provides energy, improves the range of the vehicles and reduces
the need for charging. The objective of this presentation is to show a methodology for collecting data and calculating the duty
cycle for regenerative braking. The methodology can be used for other applications. In addition, the presentation will demonstrate
how the duty cycle results can be used to design a validation plan for regenerative braking.

Session 9 2:20 to 3:20 p.m. on Wednesday

„„ Blue Room Mohammad M. Hasan - Nilfisk-Advance, Inc.
Developing a Reliability Improvement Plan for a Main PCB Assembly to Reduce Overall Warranty Costs
As in most other industries, the Professional Cleaning industry segment is seeing integration of an increased number of
electronics to perform various machine functions, and new features are added in every new generation of products. For the best
customer experience with the end product, the electronic components must be of high reliability. Their low reliability will result in
high warranty costs and low customer satisfaction that will affect the company’s reputation in the marketplace. This presentation
explains an improvement project by Nilfisk-Advance, Inc. that improved a mission-critical electronic component in the machine
design. The goal was to improve the controller assembly reliability from 90% to 98% over the service life of a new machine. To
achieve the goal, we developed an overall Reliability Program Plan (RPP) as well as a test plan. The RPP outlines a series of
actionable items and deliverables throughout the design and production cycle to ensure that a robust product can be shipped to
customers. The test plan ensures that the design is properly validated and the key production component could be qualified.

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 Wednesday — June 4, 2014
Session 9 (continued) 2:20 to 3:20 p.m. on Wednesday
zz Red Room Daniel Lee and Mike Silverman - Ops A La Carte
Agile Implementation of Reliability in an Organization
The implementation of a successful Reliability Program Plan (RPP) requires a high level of interaction and support from
management, processes and teams. People interaction is key. A successful implementation will also provide immediate visible
value to the organization as well as gain user support and contribution to the program. The process starts by identifying a reliability
leader; and this leader has to be very in-tuned with the culture, business objectives and fundamentals of the key reliability tools.
This is no easy task. However, if broken down to many “minimum viable” programs that gain immediate traction and if introduced
in multiple phases, this can be accomplished. Furthermore, the gradual introduction of reliability principles and methods, and
constant relationship building across the organization, will contribute to the success and scalability. This presentation will discuss
the implementation of RPPs following the Agile approach, and present case studies that demonstrate its use. The Agile method
was made popular by software start-ups and has increasingly been adopted by non-software organizations. It is an adaptive,
collaborative and customer-centric process framework. With more frequent release cycles, the Agile approach seeks to better
meet the organization’s need for a culture that develops reliable products.

Tutorial 2 3:30 to 5:00 p.m. on Wednesday

„„ Blue Room Carl Carlson - ReliaSoft Corporation
Good FMEAs, Bad FMEAs — What’s the Difference?
Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) can anticipate and prevent problems, reduce costs, shorten product development
times, and achieve safe and highly reliable products and processes. However, it has to be done correctly — performed on the
correct parts, by the correct team, during the correct time frame, with the correct procedure. Frankly, there are mixed results with
FMEA applications. Consider these questions: Why is there so much variation in the application of a tool that has been around for
many decades? What can be done to help achieve more uniformly successful results?
This tutorial will identify the key elements of successful FMEA applications, highlight the difference between high-quality and
poor-quality FMEAs, and help attendees achieve the full capability of this potentially powerful tool.

Thursday — June 5, 2014

Session 10 8:00 to 9:00 a.m. on Thursday
„„ Blue Room John J. Paschkewitz - Watlow
Applying Design of Experiments for Selection of Materials and Components in Product Development
A reliability-based experimental design can help select the most robust materials, components and configuration for improved
product reliability. This presentation covers the stages of Design of Experiments (DOE) starting with screening, then selecting
and optimizing the solution and, finally, verifying the solution with accelerated testing. An example used to illustrate the approach
is presented, showing a sensor assembly design modification to provide longer life in a severe temperature and humidity
environment. A reliability DOE analysis was used to determine the effect of component, material and process factors on the time
to failure in an accelerated temperature/humidity test as the response. The selected design configuration successfully completed
the accelerated test to achieve customer expectations for the life of the product.

Take center stage at ARS by becoming a sponsor/exhibitor

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9
 Thursday — June 5, 2014
Session 10 (continued) 8:00 to 9:00 a.m. on Thursday
zz Red Room Pankaj Shrivastava, Aswin Balasubramanian, Hai Bi, James Flygare,
Joey Jiang, Mike Jenson and Matthew Scogin - Halliburton
Innovative Permanent Downhole Gauge – Road to Reliability
A permanent downhole gauge can increase well productivity by providing real-time data concerning downhole conditions
throughout well life. The gauge discussed in this presentation can obtain continuous pressure and temperature data without well
intervention, and therefore can enhance reservoir management. These gauges are permanently installed in severe downhole
environments and rarely require retrieval to surface for any analysis or maintenance. Despite harsh conditions, the gauge is
designed to achieve operational reliability of 90% for at least 5 years or more at temperatures of up to 200°C and pressures that
reach 30,000 psi.
This presentation discusses the Design for Reliability (DfR) process used during the gauge development along with the
effectiveness and limitations of the DfR tools applied during the product development cycle. The DfR tools and their order of
deployment were critical to design reliability to ensure that the expectations of the gauge would be met fully. Gauge development
was guided by the “LIFECYCLE” program, which is a systematic and concurrent product development program developed by
the engineering company that designed the gauge. The discussion will include information concerning the DfR methods and
capabilities of the gauge, and it will highlight the output of DfR tools that will verify the gauge reliability.

Session 11 9:10 to 10:10 a.m. on Thursday

„„ Blue Room Carl Baver - Rolls-Royce
Managing Reliability Data So Engineers Can Use It
During the operation of the products we are concerned about, the data required to evaluate and analyze is available. However,
this data is not always being collected or not in a form that is readily usable for reliability analysis. Careful thought is required to
identify the relevant data to collect, when and how to collect it, and what form to store and present it such that the data is available
for reliability engineers to use it for analysis on current and future products. This is the greatest challenge for reliability analysis.

zz Red Room Reinaldo Gonzalez and Greg Zeman - GE Healthcare

Reliability Assessment of a Low Temperature Lead-Free Solder Used in a High g-Load Environment
Consumer electronics have been converted to lead-free solders as required by the RoHS directive since 2006. Our application
has a flex circuit soldered to a ceramic substrate through a hot bar process. Due to material, geometry and Package-On-Package
limitations, we cannot use the most commonly available lead-free paste – SAC305 – due to its high temperature requirements.
Instead, we are using the indium alloy 77.2Sn 20.0In 2.8Ag, which has a similar melting point as SnPb solders.
This session presents the analysis performed by the paste supplier, the reliability tests performed on our application and the
cross-section analysis to evaluate the intermetallic growth and what type of intermetallics are seen as a function of thermal cycle
and high temperature storage testing. Different accelerated testing conditions will be used to estimate the solder joint life under
the normal use environment.

Session 12 10:30 to 11:30 a.m. on Thursday

„„ Blue Room Mark Wagner and Vinitha Nalla -
Watlow Electric Manufacturing Company
Customer/Supplier Collaborative Accelerated Life Testing
Accelerated life testing (ALT) is a valuable tool. To maximize benefit, there are trade-offs that need to be determined. This
presentation will show details of some ALT experiences, terminology, case studies, benefits and considerations for planning.
Proper deployment of ALT endeavors can allow a new product to be released with high confidence in its field and reliability
performance, which has many advantages in cost containment and warranty expectations.

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 Thursday — June 5, 2014
Session 12 (continued) 10:30 to 11:30 a.m. on Thursday
zz Red Room Yancy Gill - Salt River Project
Underground Electrical Cable Fault Forecasting Utilizing the Crow-AMSAA Reliability Growth Model
One of the major economic and reliability challenges facing the Salt River Project (SRP), a major electric and water utility in the
Phoenix, Arizona metropolitan area, is managing the replacement of 7,000 miles of direct buried primary electrical cable that
is at or approaching the end of its useful life. Since cable replacement programs of this magnitude will require 25 plus years to
complete, the ability to model cable faults as a function of cable replacement is critical to developing a sound cable replacement
strategy. To accomplish this task, SRP has developed a fault forecasting methodology based upon the Crow-AMSAA reliability
growth model. This model has the ability to forecast electrical cable faults based upon replaced cable footage. When used within
the underground electrical cable replacement simulation, also developed at SRP, 30 years of cable replacement can be evaluated
for the entire direct buried underground electrical cable system to best optimize cable replacement budgets versus future faulting,
hence, electrical system reliability.

Session 13 1:00 to 2:00 p.m. on Thursday

„„ Blue Room James McLeish - DfR Solutions
A Review of Reliability Tools and Paradigms for Effectiveness and Best Practices
The Quality profession is noted for continuously developing, updating and implementing methods and tools that have produced
a dynamic, diverse and intermixable palette of quality tools that vary from Statistical Process Control (SPC) to Lean Six Sigma.
This allows organizations to mix and match techniques in order to adapt them to their products, processes and services. By
contrast, some segments of the Reliability profession seem to be frozen in time, using reliability standards and specification
templates that have not been updated in decades. The aerospace and defense industries seem to be especially rooted to using
traditional reliability methods. However other industries, such as automotive and electronics, are driven by relentless competitive
pressure from global low-cost manufacturers (who also excel in product Quality, Reliability and Durability (QRD)), to be innovative
and develop enhanced and new reliability methods in order to survive in their markets. This presentation will review traditional
reliability methods and paradigms, and compare them to modern methods in order to communicate and promote cross-industry
pollination of best practices.

zz Red Room Daniel Kosinski - US Army, TARDEC

Reliability Growth Planning for the Army – Models, Issues and Lessons Learned
Formal reliability growth is still a relatively new concept for the US Army and, as such, the models that are currently used to
plan for reliability growth for Army systems are still new themselves. While reliability growth plans can be incredibly valuable
for maturing systems’ reliabilities, there are numerous issues with the current reliability growth planning models that result in
heightened program risks. This presentation discusses the currently accepted reliability growth planning model, AMSAA’s Planning
Model for Program Methodology (PM2), as well as a newer and more capable planning model in AMSAA’s Bayesian Continuous
Planning Model (BCMP). The detailed assumptions of these two models are presented along with the issues that result from these
assumptions. This is presented to demonstrate the work that still needs to be done to improve how the US Army plans for growing
the reliability of their systems. This is demonstrated through a thorough case study of the development of multiple reliability growth
plans for a generic US Army system that captures how the planning model used influences how requirements need to be set.

Session 14 2:20 to 3:20 p.m. on Thursday

„„ Blue Room Nicholas Lambert - Ridgetop Group, Inc.
Time-based Simulation in Design for Reliability and Robustness
Our work presents a novel application of reliability and part stress data, which allows for the assessment of system robustness to
usage and failure within a set of specifications. By considering the concept of robustness, a novel approach has been developed
to put reliability engineering methods in the hands of design engineers using time-domain simulations. The result of this approach
is to be a set of engineering design tools that allow the consideration of reliability in the early stages of system design. It is a key
ambition that the design tools will permit an analysis of system performance and system reliability in a unified and straightforward
way. This will yield better optimized designs and better, more reliable products.

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 Thursday — June 5, 2014
Session 14 (continued) 2:20 to 3:20 p.m. on Thursday
zz Red Room Nematollah Bidokhti - Cisco Systems
Design for Service Life
Traditionally there has been a lot of confusion among people in the industry regarding Service Life versus Mean Time Between
Failures (MTBF). The goal of this presentation is to discuss the difference and how to design for a service life. This includes
calculating product service life using two approaches — first how to go about predicting the service life and second how to utilize
the shipment and returns to determine the product service life. This presentation utilizes tools such as Weibull++ as a way to
calculate the service life.

Session 15 3:30 to 4:30 p.m. on Thursday

„„ Blue Room James M. Wasiloff and Colin M. Wasiloff - US DoD, TACOM LCMC
A Practical Methodology for Measuring Success of Organizational Design and Synthesis Using Axiomatic
Design and Design for Six Sigma Metrics
Given the premise of the existence of a “less than optimal” organizational design in the increasing complexity of the government
or private sector organization domain, a practical approach to improvement is needed. Anecdotal data in the form of historical
observations, Voice of the Customer or other fuzzy empirical metrics typically serve as a means of characterization of this
organizational state. In most cases, neither sufficient data nor a reliable and repeatable measurement system is available to
effectively portray the organization in the level of clarity and resolution needed to facilitate continuous process improvement. No
measurement system, variable ranking, continuous scale or discrimination between levels of “goodness” currently exists. This
presentation will discuss a metric that has been developed to characterize the efficiency of the current state of an organization on
a practical measurement system, a ten-point “Likert” type scale.

zz Red Room H.P. Slater and Doug Hart - MRG (Management Resources Group)
Reliability Assessment of Your Storeroom to Support Operations
Looking for success? The ability of your Maintenance, Repair & Operations (MRO) Material Management team is critical in
supporting your efforts to improve the reliability of your assets. To properly assess the ability of your storeroom to support your
program, you will want to conduct an assessment and develop an action plan for improvement. The assessment criteria and key
performance indicators (KPIs) can be applied, tracked and monitored for continuous improvement. This session will cover the top
categories of the assessment and the key elements, along with providing a tool that will provide the absolute reality of how well
the storeroom is being managed.

Awards Dinner and Keynote 6:00 to 9:00 p.m. on Thursday

The Symposium will conclude with an awards dinner and keynote address on Thursday evening. You are welcome to bring a
guest to this event, which provides another opportunity to interact with colleagues in a comfortable and relaxed setting. There will
be a hosted bar starting at 6:00 p.m., followed by a buffet dinner, keynote address and awards presentation. As with the rest of
the Symposium, the typical style of dress will be “business casual.”

Advancing Aviation Safety Through Increased Operational Knowledge

Andrew Cosner - Head of Safety & Product Assurance - Rolls-Royce North America
Andrew (Andy) Cosner currently serves as Rolls-Royce North America’s Head of Safety & Product
Assurance. In this role, he is responsible for the Product Safety Process as well as conducting New Product
Introduction audits and in-service Life Cycle Management reviews. Andy began his career at Allison (later
acquired by Rolls-Royce) after he graduated from Ohio State University in Mechanical Engineering in
1979. Throughout his career, he has held various roles in turbine aero design, engine development and
certification, and various Chief Project Engineer positions. Most notably, he’s held Chief Engineer positions
on the following engine programs: AE3007, Trent 800, RB211 and Helicopters (250, RR300, T800). In fact,
these were positions ranging from one of Rolls-Royce’s largest products such as the Trent 800 (for the 777)
all the way down to a 300 HP helicopter engine for the Robinson R66. In addition, Andy has presented a
number of papers and presentations in the aerospace safety arena throughout his career.

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 International Applied Reliability Symposium
North America 2014
June 3 - 5, 2014 in Indianapolis, Indiana

Registration Information - One Form Per Attendee

 Advanced Registration (must be received by April 11, 2014) $995.00
 Standard Registration $1195.00
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may substitute another attendee or transfer to another course (see “Transferring” below).
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small fee will be assessed for each additional transfer. If the price for the new event is higher, you will be billed for the difference. There are no refunds
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occurs, you will automatically be transferred to the next upcoming event. If transfer is not acceptable, registration fees will be refunded upon request.
ReliaSoft is not responsible for any other costs that you may incur, including non-refundable airline tickets.
• Video/Photograph Disclaimer: By registering for this event, you recognize that ReliaSoft Corporation and its affiliates might occasionally take photos or
video footage of the event, and you agree to ReliaSoft’s Video/Photograph Disclaimer Policy.
• ARS Registration Fee Includes: Attendance to your choice of presentations, the event Proceedings and any other handouts, daily continental breakfast
and refreshments during the breaks, the Tuesday night reception and the Thursday night dinner. A certificate of attendance will be provided. Attendees are
eligible for 0.1 Educational Units per contact hour and 1 Certified Reliability Professional (CRP) course credit.
Applied Reliability Symposium
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North America 2014