ENERGY:

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Dr. Ron Lembke
Hot, Flat, and Crowded

 Hot: Climate Change

 Flat: Technology and
Bandwidth
 Crowded: More people, who
want to live like us
THE DEMAND FOR ENERGY
International Energy Outlook, 2011, US Energy
Information Admistration, eia.gov
EIA Demand Scenarios

http://www.eia.gov/conf_pdfs/Monday/Sweetnam_eia.pdf
THE SUPPLY OF ENERGY
Hubbert’s Peak

• M. King Hubbert, “Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels”

(Drilling and Production Practices, American Petroleum
Institute, Washington, DC, 1956),
Causality or Correlation?
Where does our oil come from?
US Oil Imports, US EIA
UK, 2.5% Kuwait, 2.0%
Brazil, 2.6% Ecuador, 1.9%
Virgin Islands,
2.5%
Angola, 3.8%
Iraq, 4.0%

Colombia, 3.6% Canada, 24.2%

Russia, 6.0%
Mexico, 12.2%

Algeria, 4.9%
Nigeria,
9.8% Saudi Arabia,
Venezuela, 10.5%
9.5%
When is the Peak? 2004 data
Different Scenarios

http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cf
m?id=38&t=6
The Price of energy
Gas Prices 1990-2012
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1990
1991

1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
1992

Data: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_dcus_nus_w.htm
Price of Liquids

Liquid Price ounces $/gallon $/cup

Wine $20 25.4 $ 100.79 6.3
Coffee $1.90 12 $ 20.27 1.3
Coors Light $0.75 12 $ 8.00 0.5
Big Gulp $1.75 32 $ 7.00 0.4
milk $3.50 128 $ 3.50 0.2
Gasoline $4.50 128 $ 4.50 0.3
Light Sweet Crude $100 5,376 $ 2.38 0.1
The Price of Fuel

http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/
EIA Predicted Price of Crude Oil, 2011

Death Valley, April 2012

 Cents / kwh

0
5
10
15
20
30

25
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
LR on 10yrs Data
LR on 20yrs Data

2007
1989-2009 prices

2008
2009
NV Electricity Prices

2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
R2 = 0.938
R2 = 0.907

2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Elect. Price Data: EIA, 20y Rsq=0.91, 10y Rsq=0.94
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Where Does it Come From?
 Proven Oil Reserves, CIA Factbook
300,000,000,000

250,000,000,000

200,000,000,000

150,000,000,000

100,000,000,000

50,000,000,000
United Arab…
0
Canada
Iran
Iraq
Kuwait

Libya
Nigeria
Kazakhstan
Qatar
Venezuela
Russia

China
United States
Saudi Arabia
US Coal Reserves

http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=coal_reserves
http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=coal_reserves
 Pinion Pine Power Plant
 DOE Clean Coal
 Air-blown Integrated Gasification
Combined Cycle
 $335.9m, half DOE, half SPP
 New gasification method
 New desulfurization method
Carbon Capture & Sequestration
 Porous rock formations
 Small scale tests
 Expensive – lose 30% of electricity gained
 So make more electricity – It’s CARBON FREE!
 There are other pollutants

 What if it gets out?

 Natural gas stays safely underground
Solar Resources
Geothermal Resources
Wind Resources
Renewables’ Share growing
US Energy Sources
What we use it for
Summary
 Demand for energy is going to increase significantly
 Growing populations
 Rising standards of living

 Supply of energy not increasing as fast

 Global oil supplies are finite
 Peak oil is likely coming in next 40 years

 Alternative energy sources