i

Phase 2

Solve problems by applying the algorithms of the Unit 1

Group: 212066_21

Angie Melissa Londoño

Daniel Alejandro álzate

José Johan Valencia

Jorge Armando Vergara S.

March 2018.

Universidad Nacional Abierta a Distancia (UNAD).

School of Basic Sciences, Technology and Engineering

Theory of decisions
 ii
Tabla de Contenidos

Tabla de Contenidos..........................................................................................................ii
Introductión.........................................................................................................................ii
ÁRBOLES DE DECISIÓN, VEIP y VEIM..........................................................................iv
Problem 1......................................................................................................................iv
Solution By (Angie Londoño)......................................................................................v
Solution by (Jorge Vergara)......................................................................................vii
Problem 2......................................................................................................................vii
Solution (by Jose Johan Valencia)...........................................................................viii
Solution By (Daniel Alzate)........................................................................................ix
Solution by (Jorge Vergara).......................................................................................xi
Problem 3......................................................................................................................xi
Solution By (Angie Londoño)...................................................................................xiii
Solucion By (Jorge Vergara)....................................................................................xvi
Conclusions.......................................................................................................................1
Lista de Referencias..........................................................................................................2
 iii

Introductión

The present work is based on the support in the knowledge acquired in Differentiating

the algorithms, their characteristics and applications in different environments of risk

and / or uncertainty, for the decision making and the optimization of the expected

results.

With the development of this activity, we seek to understand the application algorithms

in decisions that depend on the type and quality of information obtained through

exercises and problems.

The analysis of the algorithms allows us to determine the relevance of the information

for the development of the proposed problems.

 iv
ÁRBOLES DE DECISIÓN, VEIP y VEIM

Problem 1.

Teratex, a textile company that has a productive experience in the foreign market of 25

years, must decide if it manufactures a new product in its main plant, or if on the

contrary the purchase from an external supplier. The profits depend on the demand of

the product. The table shows projected profits, in millions of dollars.

a. Use EVPI to determine if the company should try to get a better estimate of the

demand.

b. A test market study of potential product demand is expected to report a favorable (F)

or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are:

c. What is the expected value of market research information?

d. What is the efficiency of the information?

 v
Solution By (Angie Londoño)
vi
 vii

Solution by (Jorge Vergara)

Problem 2.

ElectroCom, a company that manufactures electronic components for the introduction in

its product catalog, must decide whether to manufacture a new product in its main plant,
 viii
subcontract it with company supervision or if it buys it from an external supplier. The

profits depend on the demand of the product. The table shows projected profits, in

millions of dollars.

e. Use EVPI to determine if the company should try to get a better estimate of the

demand.

f. A test market study of potential product demand is expected to report a favorable (F)

or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are:

g. What is the expected value of market research information?

h. What is the efficiency of the information?

Solution (by Jose Johan Valencia)

ix
x
 xi

Solution By (Daniel Alzate)

xii
 xiii

Solution by (Jorge Vergara)

Problem 3.

Teratextyl, a textile company that has a productive experience in the foreign market of

30 years, must decide if it manufactures a new product in its main plant, or if on the

contrary the purchase from an external supplier. The profits depend on the demand of

the product. The table shows projected profits, in millions of dollars.

 xiv

i. Use EVPI to determine if the company should try to get a better estimate of the

demand.

j. A test market study of potential product demand is expected to report a favorable (F)

or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are:

k. What is the expected value of market research information?

l. What is the efficiency of the information?

 xv

Solution By (Angie Londoño)

xvi
xvii
 xviii
Solucion By (Jorge Vergara)
 Conclusions

The basic concepts and the importance of decision theory were acquired,

understood and applied in problems Thanks to the decision trees and the bayes

theorem.

therefore we can project results or expected values of the potential and probability

variables, thus allowing us to have the balance and the information that is obtained

in a timely manner and which is very valuable to take as a reference point for

decision making and to analyze the results.

 
 Lista de Referencias

 Syllabus de Curso Teoría de las decisiones(UNAD, 2018) Recuperado de:

http://campus11.unad.edu.co/ecbti36/mod/folder/view.php?id=1330

 Guía Integrada de actividades del Curso Teoría de las decisiones(UNAD,

2018) Recuperado de:
http://campus11.unad.edu.co/ecbti36/mod/folder/view.php?id=1344

 Foro para desarrollo de actividades del Curso Teoría de las

decisiones(UNAD, 2018 ) Recuperado de:
http://campus11.unad.edu.co/ecbti36/mod/forum/discuss.php?d=2878

 Sanderson, C. (2006). Analytical Models for Decision Making. New York,

USA: McGraw-Hill Education Editorial. Retrieved
from http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/login.aspx?
direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=234098&lang=es&site=eds-live

 Gilboa, I. (2001). A Theory of Case-Based Decisions. Camdridge, UK:

Cambridge University Press Editorial. Retrieved
from http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/login.aspx?
direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=72982&lang=es&site=eds-live

 Rokach, L. (2008). Data Mining With Decision Trees: Theory And

Applications, Bern, Switzerland: H. Bunke, University Bern, Switzerland.
Retrieved from http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/login.aspx?
direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=236037&lang=es&site=eds-live
.