Chapter 2: War 
 
5 Traditions of war (3 old, 2 New)

Three traditions of war: ​(old)

Eschatological War is a part of ​grant design​ to fight for major things ( one race,
religion, ideology, ehnic…) i.e. WWI and WWII

Cataclysmic War is like ​natural disaster​; it is impossible to eradicate, but you can
make it less destructive (mitigate and prevent)

Political tradition War is a​ political instrument​ to fight for political objectives

New War

New War ( Mary Kaldor) Characteristic:

1. Actors are no longer states => interstate-
transitional
2. Goal are no longer political => ethnic, religiou,
or profit
3. Conventional combat => low intensity warfare
actions
4. Resources can be produced through
globalization rather than states
5. No distinction between civilian and combatants
( civilians are at high risk)
6. War doesn't bring a decisive end.

The Western Way of War Three transformation (technology transformation) of

( Michael Mann& Colin Micnnes) war:
=> War is a ‘’Spectator Sport’’ - 1. Global conflict: no longer possible
war can happen without boots on 2. Political goal of war: is limited rather than total

 
 the ground 3. Nature of war: is limited which minimize the
“collateral damages”
Characteristic:
1. Scope and scale are limited due to the limited
objective.
2. Peace is difficult to win than war
3. Civilians no longer the target for military forces
but civilians on one’s side is victory.
4. War tends to last longer than what it has planned
(western wants quick war due to low popular
support).
5. Tactics and operations need to adapt with new
realities.

New War and Spector Sport War

Clausewitz:

War is an act of force intended to compel the enemy to our will

➔ War happens because of ​clear political objectives (​continuation of policy by other mean)
➔ If you want to overcome the enemy, you must match your effort against one power.

*Is there war that is fought without political objective? => it’s only informal

Problems prevent the rational states from achieving objectives through war

Paradoxical Trinity Three “P” to go to war:

1. Gov’t has clear ​policy

2. People have the ​passion​ toward policy
3. Probability of army​ - military has strong capability to
go to war

> if one fails, war is unlikely to be successful. i.e Cambodia Vs

Thailand (division in Thai between red and yellow shirt)
 * Trinity can be used no matter what political ideology is.

Friction refers to the unforeseen things that prevent you from achieving
your perfect plan

Fog of war Uncertainty and insufficient information which can affect the
rational calculation (of enemy strength, for example)

Enemy political objectives Enemy also has its own objectives (realist: minimize survival
and maximize hegemony) => will match your strength in war

Total War​ ​(Totale Krieg) is based on two interrelated actions:

1. Escalation:​ one push hard to achieve the objective, the enemy will do so=> the action
keep going on and on leading to escalation
2. Participation:​ as war escalates, everyone in society will mobilize for war effort =>
transition to a war economy & industrial capacities for war

Political Objectives in War​:

- Political objective is limited ( limited effort, can't engage in total war)

=> enemy can survive
- Political objective is unlimited ( put all effort, total war)
=> enemy can’t survive

 
 
 
 
 
 
Chapter 3: Terrorism and Counterterrorism 

Terrorism 

Terrorism​: refers to the threat or violences and the use of fear to coerce, persuade, and gain
public attention.

1. It is an ​unlawful act
2. Carry out/ perpetrated by ​individual or sub-groups or state actors
3. Has​ political, religious, or ideological component
4. Need ​publicity or audience​ to publicize their actions

Terror​: an act of violence intended to spread fear.

Characteristic of Terror: 1. Targeted witness violence as well as those who are

killed or wounded
2. Kill to maximize fear
3. Symbolic target ( movie theatre, airport, military
based, police office…)
4. Design to spread fear to convince people that they
can be killed anytime anywhere
5. Weapons can be used by insurgents, criminals,
terrorist organizations, and threatened states. There
is no group that is inherently terrorist. Anyone who
use terror tactics is considered to be terrorism

Economic Targeting​: not killing people, but attacking specific locations which can affect the
economy. 

 
 
 
 

Three-part approach to
deal with terrorism​:
Counterterrorism 
1. Core Strategy (Political Strategy)
=> long term effort to find the root-causes of terrorism.
=> understand why people join terrorist groups?
=> Deal with them through education and social structure

2. Offensive Strategy (Military strategy)

*MultiPronged approach-
=> Short and mid-term efforts to tackle with terrorism which involve
use all three methods
military actions and police work.
combine (best solution)
3. Defensive Strategy (Policing Strategy)
=> assessment and protection of vulnerabilities
=> Preventive measure i.e.Building airport
=> Managing consequences

Weakness 1. Political Strategy​ => people will become terrorist based on ​radicalization
process​:
➔ Pre-radicalization: ​conversion​- no action
➔ Identification: ​acceptance​-identify yourself with new idea- change behavior-
propensity for action
➔ Indoctrination: ​conviction-​ accept the causes and convince to do it
➔ Action: ​knowingly engage

2. Offensive Strategy:
➔ Affect vulnerable population
➔ Never ending war

3. Defensive Strategy:​ Can't always defend

 
Chapter 4: Weapons of Mass Destruction  
 

Chemical Weapons: ​weapons based on toxic chemical that designed to kill individuals that
come into contact with them (inhaling or touching)

➔ IT HAS TO BE MADE BY HUMAN NOT EXIST IN NATURE (purely human

creation)
➔ It can produce mass casualties if it is in the right conditions ( temperature, rain, fog,
wind.. )
➔ Chemical weapons are delivered based on “point sources” (one destination only) or “line
source” (through air or in water)

History of Chemical Weapon

- Root in ancient times => most were extracted from nature

- Modern chemical weapons => gas form (affect wide area compare to sth solid and liquid)
=> made in factories
- Chemical weapon effectiveness during WWI due to:
● Unpredictable wind
● Other side also use it
● Gas masks were developed
- No large scale of chemical weapons during WWII, why?
● Some believed Hitler suffered from chemical attacks in WWI => reluctant to use
it again.
● German and American generals were so professional to not use it
● However, both still kept stockpiles of CW

Types of Chemical Weapons

1. Blood agent ➔ Based on hydro-cuanic acid

➔ Ability​: transport oxygen in the blood
➔ Hard to make into gas
➔ Use for assasination purpose (likely)
 2. Choking agent ➔ Produce hydrochloric acid to inhale
➔ Ability​: after inhaling, lung will produce fluid to flush out the
acid => lung will be broken into pieces when you cough it out
➔ Not a form of gas i.e. water in pool

3. Blister agent ➔ Thick liquid in normal condition

➔ Known as“Master Gas”
➔ Ability​: create blisters when you come into contact with

4. Nerve agent ➔ Ability​: cut off the nerve system from body function => lost
control of your body => brain and heart will stop working and
it will kill you
➔ Most lethal chemical agent that was developed in WWII and
was possessed by all sides, no use due to:
● Inhumane
● If both sides have it => too risky

5. Incapacitants ➔ Non-lethal weapons i.e.tear gas

➔ Ability​: make the victims uncomfortable, but do not kill them.
➔ Used for crowd control

Convention

Geneva Protocol for the Prohibition of the ➔ Banned the used of chemical weapon
Use in War of Asphyxiating, Poisonous, or (not stockpiles
Other Gases, and Bacteriological Methods of
Warfare (1952)

The Chemical Weapon Convention (CWC) ➔ Banned stockpile and use

Biological Weapon​: ​the use of living organisms or toxins to kill humans, animals, and plants.

- More serious than chemical weapon => victim can infect one another, spread beyond
control, small effect can attack large population
- To handle BW => vaccine
- However, BW is hard to preserve i.e. virus die exposing to the sun

Nuclear Weapon:​ conventional bomb work by rearing the atom of oxygen, hydrogen, carbon,
nitrogen => cause atom to create explosion

- Atomic bomb- not based on rearing atom but by the splitting of atom themselves

i.e. fat man and little boy

Two types of nuclear weapons: ​Fission and Fusion

Five Effects of NW

1. Fireball as hot as sun

2. Dynamic Overpressure
3. Shockwave
4. Radiation
5. Electromagnetic Pulse (all electronics are cut off)

There is no conventions but only proliferation to prevent the spread of NW (NPT)

 
Chapter 5: State Failure and New War 
 

State Failure​: ​the inability of the state to provide security and public goods to its citizens, to
collect taxes, to formulate, implement, and enforce policy and law - unable to exercise the
normal function of state. (Lambach and Debiel)

Critic :

Binary issue how to define the states that are in between consolidate and fail states.

Part of a continuum can be a continuous sequence where states can provide one part but not
the other. i.e fail to provide security but collect tax

Western concept western - centric concept (not follow then fail state?)

Short period of time There is a moment for every states to seem like it is failing

State​ is a political entity that has legal jurisdiction and physical control over a defined territory,
the authority to make collective decisions for a permanent population, a monopoly on the
legitimate use of force, and a government that interacts or has the capacity to interact in formal
relations with other such entities.

Academic Term, Baker and Ausink- ​Shift from conceptualize the concept of state failure to the
process of state formation and building based on 12 indicators

● Consolidate => fragile => failed => collapsed

Causes of fail state:

Regime and Government role Change fail state? => inject democracy

Conflict trap and resource trap Fail because they rely too much on natural resources

New War War destroy states

Most of these causes describe sth that is not western and focus on internal. What about external?
New war​ is closely related to fail state as new war is caused by non-state actor due to the lack of
security protection

Characteristic:

Actor No longer states (war tend to be interstate)

Goal No longer political but ethnic, religious, or profit

Conduct of No longer conventional combat but low intensity warfare actions

War

Resources Produce through globalization rather than state

Victims Civilian suffered most since they are main target (there is no distinction
between civilian and combatants)

Duration War cant bring to decisive end

Where does new war come - End of Cold War

from? ( new war occurs as
old wars are obsolete)
- Rise of Diplomacy
- Rise of unipolarity
- Technology made conventional/nuclear war too costly
➔ Low intensity conflict is affordable for most
i.e.can get access to gun easier

New war happens because of:

- New technology and socio-political context- too costly to go to war
- Same causes allow non-state actor to conduct war on small scale: new war

Three basic feature of new war

Asymmetricalization of war Non-state cannot be as powerful as state

Privatization of war One can make war even they are not state ( go to war without
power of state)

De-militarization of war Hard to distinguish between combatant and noncombatant.

How to prevent a new war?

- State need to be stable

- Superpowers help one side to win.
 

Chapter 6: Genocide, mass killing, and ethnic conflict 

 

Mass killing​:​ kill lot of people

Genocide:​ killing member of groups, casuing serious body or mental harm to members of
groups, deliberate inflicting on group condition to life to bring physical distruction, imposing
measure intented to prevent birth within the group, forcibly transfer children from one group to
the other. ( based on convention)

Conceptual Problem:

State sovereignty The norm has given rights to genocide.

=> The term genocide seem to be western centric that use to
justify measure of the allies

Ethnic cleansing​ ​is the war that is conducted because one group sees the other groups as existen
threat => may be the reason for mass killing.

What is Ethnic group?

Borderline definition Ethnic groups are asscript group (you born with it)

Anthony Smith (1986) 1. Common name

2. Common ancestor i.e. Cambodia=> angkor
3. Element of shared culture (language, religion, social
customs)
4. Common historical memories
5. Attached territory i.e.Koh Tral Cambodia
=> Bound by ​Myth-Symbol Complex

Where did ethnicity come from?

Primordial (cannot - Come from ancient time that you cannot change
change) - “Ancient hatred” ​view it which those characteristic imprinted in
you

Instrumental (can - Ethnicity is constructed by ethnic leaders to achieve their ​political

change) goal.
- Use ethnicity as their instrument to meet their objectives - to promote
ethnic existence
 Socially constructed - Ethnicity is “Myth-symbol”complex that people in a group created to
(can or cannot define an ethnic group and distinguish themselves from other groups.
change) - Myth Symbol complex: is a narration of the origin of a nation.
- Ethnicity is a set of “invented tradition” i.e. textbook

Causes of ethnic conflict: ​Ancient Hatred

Ancient Hatred - Ethnic groups are ascriptive groups, they are born with it.
- They have distinct social belief of “myth-symbol” complex
- Ancient hatred rarely leads to ethnic conflict; however, ancient
hatred will trigger if:
1. Myth-symbol complex lead them to see each other as hostile
(i.e.ancient hatred) - ppl support for war
2. Territory dispute between the groups
3. The state is weak and not unified.

Social Mobilization - The role of state is a part of ethnic conflict (either containing or
intensifying)
- Three social-psychological factors:
1. Long standing hostile relationship between the two
2. Authoritative support
3. Stimulus event
- If states strong and unbiased => tend to intervene and stop the
escalation.
- If states strong/weak and biased => favor one certain group,
then lead to ethnic civil war

Instrumental reason The ethnic conflict happen cuz people encourage the riot as they benefit
from it

Causes of ethnic conflict: ​Modern Hatred

Myth-symbol complex

1. It is a type of narrative that tells the story of the founding nation or how ethnic group
was born. It is not bad, but can lead to ethnic conflict if politicians exploit it by trying
to manipulate it. i.e.Mobilization of entire group for war with other based on
manipulated myth-symbol complex
2. Combination of primordial and instrumentalist view
How to stop ethnic war?

Power sharing and autonomy - Possible through int intervention

*bare in mind that the reason they fight
because they do not want to share the power

Military Victory Two possible result:

1. If majority won (take all) => minority
disappear=> genocide
2. If minority win or no one win =>
partition => power sharing
*bare in mind that the solution is quite
irresponsible and partition is hard*

Prevent the fear-based construction of myth Change the narrative to stop forming the
symbol complex history that make them feel hostile
*hard to achieve*
Chapter 7: Coercive Diplomacy  
 

- Coercive diplomacy is a type of policy using military/ force. There are two main components:

Definitions & Characteristic

Deterrence Compellence

Deterrence: ​The deployment of the military to prevent Compellence: ​the deployment of

the adversary from taking action (that he might
otherwise be tempted to do).
1. A does not do anything intolerable
2. But B worries that A might change its
behavior so B deploys force to maintain status
quo.
⇒ if status quo change, deterrence fails (it is hard
because A might not want to change behavior but B
overthink
⇒ if status quo does not change, deterrence is
successful
⇒ status quo is effective when one does not need to
carry it out because if we do status quo will change
and it means deterrence fails
military power to either : (1). Stop
adversary from doing something we
do not like (2) make adversary do
something that he had not done
before and we would like him to do it.
1. A is doing something that B
cannot tolerate
2. B initiate the action to get A
to stop its intolerable actions
3. Both cease simultaneously (
both A&B stop)
⇒ if the behavior change
immediately, then compellence is
successful (it is hard to happen
because it shows that you are weak)

Characteristic:
- Convince the adversary about the threat in order
to dissuade your enemy from attacking
- If the promise takes place, deterrence by
definition has failed (cuz one has resort to other
instrument besides deterrence)
- It is hard to access the effectiveness of
deterrence.
⇒ the desired behavior is nonevent, so there could be
other factors at work or the target might not want
to do it in the first place.
Comparing Deterrence and Compellence

Deterrence Compellence

Passive/ Active Mor passive More active

Successfulness Successful when it is not carried Successful when it is quickly complied

out

Initiative Target is initiative⇒ Not taking One needs to do something to force the
an action unless target acts first target to do or stop doing something.

Time Scale No time limit ⇒ action is taken Clear time limit⇒ target must have
only when the target does clear choice:(1) stop the act and end
something punishment or (2) continue the act and
suffer the consequences

Nature of the To maintain status quo ⇒ Demand is clear ⇒ the target must be
demand success is non-event: it is reassured about the link between
successful if nothing changes compliance and compellence

Consequences No one loses face ⇒ in the case Humiliation ⇒ is target complies⇒

of success making compellence difficult than
deterrence

Measuring Can easily evaluate the success but

success was very rare, especially when the
adversary does not understand or
cannot accept the coerer’s objective

1. Target Audience - Understand audience

- Ensure that target understand the link between
threat and the desired behavior or else he will not
respond
Two major - Coercer needs to calculate the target's definition
of rationality and decide whether to apply
challenges of compellence or deterrence.
coercive 2. Reputation of Without credibility, threat is useless. e.g. barking
strategies the coercer dogs never bite
(credibility) - Reputation​: is the history of previous actions
designing and the current power to impose costs on the
target if needed.
 - Coercion​: is about influencing target’s behavior
⇒ target must believe that coercer is willing to
execute the threat

The purposes of forces

Types Defensive Deterrent Compellent Swaggering

Purpose Fend off attacks/ Prevent enemy from Get enemy to stop Enhance prestige
reduce damage of the initiating action or start doing
attack

Mode Peaceful and physical Peaceful Peaceful and Peaceful

physical

Targets - Primarily military - Primarily civilian No clear ranking None

- Secondarily - Tertiarily military
industrial

Characteristic - Have dissuasion - Threat is made as -Easy to recognize - Hard to describe

value not to carry out but hard to due to instrumental
- Can look - Second strike achieve and irrational
aggressive preparation view -Competent action nature
- First strike can be as first strike can be justified on - Can be threatening
taken for preparation defensive ground
defensive

1. Resistance cost:​ the cost of resisting the coercive strategy

(target suffer)
⇒ if you are a coercer, you want the resistance cost to be
high ​so that it triggers the target showing that you are strong
by keeping on resisting

Three types of costs 2. Compliance cost:​ the cost of submitting to coercive strategy
and counter-coercion or surrender to coercer’s demands. (target suffer)
⇒ if you are a coercer, you want the compliance cost to be
low​ so that it shows you are strong. (unwilling to comply)

3. Enforcement cost: ​the cost that coercer has to bear in

executing the threat or the effort required to make the threat
credible and to implement it if necessary. (coercer suffer)
⇒ if you are a coercer, you want the enforcement cost to be
low ⇒ ​so that you can put less effort in implementing it
⇒ if you are the target, you want the enforcement cost to be
 high

Coercer:​ manipulate resistance cost and compliance cost to influence target’s behavior ⇒ it is
called “​coercion”​
Target​: manipulate the enforcement cost to influence coercer’s behavior ⇒ it is called
“​counter-coercion”​

Nuclear Deterrence 
 
First strike capabilities  The ability to attack and weaken the opponent 
to the point where they cannot retaliate 
significantly  

Second strike capabilities  Ability to withstand the first strike by and 

opponent and retaliate with full force 

Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD)  Each side is convinced with certainty that if 
they initiate attack, the other side will be able 
to retaliate.  
⇒ it is the conviction that second-strike 
capabilities exist. (This is a variant of 
deterrence by punishment, for our purpose, 
this is what is known as “nuclear deterrence”)
 

- If A has the first strike capability and second strike capability to attack B back after the 
first strike ⇒ stand a chance to win 
- If A has the first strike capability and second strike capability to attack B back after the 
first strike, but B also has the second strike capability ⇒ able to attack each other back 
⇒ unlikely that first attacker will stand a chance  

 
  1. Air leg:​ plane flying around your 
  enemy’s area ⇒ able to prepare and 
  target enemy 
Three legs of survival nuclear weapons 
*​Survival nuclear weapons: nuclear weapons that survive  2. Land leg​: ground 
first strike but still can be used to fight back 
  3. Sea leg:​ put submarine to any places 
around the world, if they attack your 
homeland, you are already at their 
homeland 

 
 
 
 
 
 

Chapter 8: Why do states want nuclear weapons? 

 

Theories: 

Realism: Security Model  Bureaucratic Theory:  Constructivism: Norm Model 

Domestic Politic Model 

- Concept​: security  - Concept​: argue that  - Concept:​ norm 

dilemma, the importance  government agency  determines the decision of 
of military power, the  compete ​for power,  the state to possess 
absence of overarching  influence, share of  nuclear weapons. 
authority and rational  government budget,  ⇒ norm changes from time 
actor assumption  survival and prestige of  to time ⇒ build nuclear 
- Nuclear weapons​ are  their organization  weapon to achieve their 
built because state is  - Agencies​: military,  identity 
unitary actor worrying  civilian government,  i.e. every superpower has 
about security the most  scientific community,  nuclear weapons, aircraft 
i.e. if the  politician ⇒ use NW to  carriers….. 
neighbouring country  advance their interest  - Nuclear weapons​ are 
has nuclear power,  - Nuclear weapons ​are  built due to symbolic 
you also want too.   built because state is  identity ⇒ have the 
- Threat gone or feel secure  fragmented with small  nuclear weapon or not it 
⇒ dismantle the nuclear  interests group fighting  depends on how your 
weapons or stop building  for their interest  country view the point of 
it   having nuclear weapons 
- Means & end 

Cases:  Cases:  Cases: 

+ Former Soviet Union  + India   + France 
Republic​ ( Do not see  ⇒ Able to build NW soon  ⇒ Realist: France build 
Soviet Union as threat and  after Chinese test, but delay  nuclear weapons to: 
receive guarantee from the  why?  1. Deter against Soveit 
US ⇒ saw no use of  ⇒ Indra Gandhi wanted to  Union  
keeping nuclear arsenal)  use NW to gain popularity in  2. Maintain 
+ China, India, and Pakistan  helping with the election (the  interdependence from 
(chain problem)  world respect India under her  US after Suez crisis 
⇒ The end of WWII, Soviet  legacy) ⇒ she did it  Question: everyone is scared 
Union raced to build  + South Africa (black vs  of Soveit Union but why only 
 autonomic bombs ⇒ China  white)  France took action? 
followed   ⇒ Ethnic tension  ⇒ France’s concept 
⇒ After war with China ⇒    “Grandeur’’ : nuclear weapon 
India followed  + Brazil and Argentina   is the tool for france to return 
⇒ Seeing India, Pakistan  ⇒ Argentina lost war to  as world power status 
followed (Hindu Vs Muslim)  britain so it makes more sense  (symbolic) 
+ South Africa   to build NW, but both  + India: 
⇒ Felt threatened by the  countries prioritize productive  ⇒ Under Gandhi, the NW 
intervention of Soviet Union  economic activities rather  seemed to be destructive 
and Cuba in Angolan Civil  than unproductive arm  rather than protective so 
War ⇒ decided to build  decided to put it as PNE 
autonomic bomb   (peaceful nuclear explosion) 
⇒ Cold war end, dismantle  to maintain its status as third 
all the nuclear weapons   world leader. 
+ Brazil and Argentina  + Iran  
⇒ both have the capability  
⇒ the experience of not 
having war with each other 
allow them to trust each other 
and build nuclear weapon free 
zone (NWFZ)  

 
Policy Implication (Strengths and Weaknesses) 

Avoid nuclear weapon by  The involvement of  Norms are causes⇒ shape 
eliminating the risk that threat  bureaucratic politic makes  norm and perception and 
their national security  policy a bit troubling for  international opinion through 
domestic affair ⇒ long term  design of treaty 
public awareness campaign  i.e.NK strike just for the sake 
can be used to help  of headline but not real threat  

What are the strengths and weaknesses of each theory 

  Realism  Bureaucratic Theory  Constructivism 
 

Strengths       
 

Weaknesses