Topic 2: Guerrilla Tactics

INR 3933 – Insurgency, Terrorism, and Civil War

Dotan Haim
Communist Roots
Mao Zedong
(1893-1976)
A Brief History

Chinese Communist
Kuomintang (KMT) Party (CCP)
Leader – Chiang Kai-Sheck Leader – Mao Zedong
Stages of the Relationship

Partnership in fighting local Reconciliation to fight

warlords Japanese occupation

1921–1927 1937–1945

1927–1937 1945–1949

KMT purge of CCP Resurgence of conflict between

KMT and CCP
The Long
March
(1934-1935)
Japanese Invasion (1937)
Mao’s Most Influential Writings on War

“On Guerrilla Warfare”

1937 1938

“On Protracted War”

Principles of 3 camps of thought on how to deal
Protracted War with Japan

1. Subjugation

2. Quick Victory

3. Protracted War
Why protracted “The enemy is strong and we are weak, and the danger
of subjugation is there. But in other respects the enemy
War? has shortcomings and we have advantages.”

• Japan’s strengths:
1. Military power (manpower, materials)
2. Domestic support for war

• CPP’s strengths:
1. Local knowledge
2. Civilian cooperation
3. Longer time horizon
4. International support
Principles of
Protracted War 3 Stages of Protracted War

1. Strategic defensive

2. Strategic stalemate

3. Strategic counteroffensive
Strategic Defensive – Forms of Resistance
Primary Mobile Warfare

Secondary Guerrilla Warfare

Tertiary Positional Warfare

Key 1) "Social Preparation" for the coming stalemate

Activities 2) Inflict as much damage as possible
Strategic Stalemate – Forms of Resistance
Primary Guerrilla Warfare

Secondary Mobile Warfare

Tertiary

1) Base areas in the enemy's rear

Key 2) "Mobilize the whole people to unite as one man and carry on the
Activities war with unflinching perseverance"
3) Flexibility in learning new tactics
Strategic Counteroffensive – Forms of Resistance

Primary Mobile Warfare

Secondary Positional Warfare

Tertiary Guerrilla Warfare

Key 1) Regain territory

Activities 2) Break enemy commitment to the war
Tactics of Mobile 1. High mobility, swift advances and
and Guerrilla withdrawals
Warfare
2. Capture soldiers

3. Seize weapons

4. Extensive battle fields

5. Strategic centralization and tactical

decentralization
Tactics of Guerrilla Warfare
“it is people, not things that are decisive”
“a guerrilla swims among the people like a fish swims in the sea.
Without the support of the people a guerrilla is a fish out of water,
it cannot survive”

Specific advice
 Do not steal; return what you borrow
 Replace the door when you leave the house
 Be neither selfish nor unjust
Goals of Guerrilla Warfare
1. Break the morale of enemy troops

2. Increase “war frustrations” in the occupier’s home country

3. Increase capacity of guerrilla fighters

4. Capture weapons

5. Weather the storm and prepare for counteroffensive

6. Build support from international actors

End Result: CCP Victory
Jihadi Perspectives
Osama bin Laden Ayman al-Zawahiri
(1957-2011) (1951-Present)
Bin Laden’s Timeline

Saudi Arabia; very

wealthy family Establishes Al Qaeda Afghanistan Part 2

1957–1979 1988 1996–2011

1979–1989 1992–1996

War in Afghanistan Move to Sudan

against the USSR
Roots of
Al Qaeda’s tactical • Goal: Restoration of Sharia law and Islamic
strategy governance throughout the Muslim world.

• Initial strategy: Provoke the US into a long war of

attrition

• 2001 – US Invades Afghanistan

• Al-Zawahiri’s call for jihadist strategic discipline

and adapted tactics
Ubayd al-Qurashi
Philosophy
Biography
• Purpose: overcome defeatism, refine jihadist
• Not much is known about his identity strategy and tactics
• Key role of civilians
• Probably close to Bin Laden
• Psychological war of attrition
• Largely pragmatic, not religious, in his
writing • 3 stages of conflict:
• Strategic defensive
• Writing 2002-2004. Probably died early in
• Strategic stalemate
the Iraq War.
• Strategic counteroffensive
Abu Bakr Naji
• Wrote “The Management of
Savagery” in 2005

• Jordanian? Tunisian?

• Probably operated out of Iran and died

2008 in Pakistan

• Particularly influential with AQAP

Abu Bakr Naji –
 Disciplined strategy for those who already
Philosophy
believe in Salafist jihadism

 Centralization of policy, decentralization

of operations

 Critical of nationalist groups

 Superpowers as “paper tigers”

 What will cause US to fall?

 The “factors of cultural ruin”
 Over-extension
 Terrorism
Sykes-Picot
Agreement
Abu Bakr Naji – Philosophy

01 02 03
Destroy respect for Increase Expose weakness of
America, build self- recruitment by American power by
confidence in “dazzling,” leading them to
Muslims “angering,” fight Muslims
“transforming” directly
Abu Bakr Naji –
Philosophy
 The role of civilians: current state as
“savagery” and “state of nature”

 Role of Islamic groups is the

“Administration of Savagery”

 Best recruits are NOT from a deeply

religious background

 No attempt to reassert central control

Abu Bakr Naji - Philosophy
- Classic guerrilla strategy
- Al-Qaeda central provides logistical support
Priority
- Key factors: terrain, cultural readiness, access to guns
States
- Jordan, North Africa (except Egypt), Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi
Arabia, Yemen

Non-Priority - Terrorism without guerrilla warfare

States - Largely independent of Al-Qaeda
Abu Bakr Naji – Tactics:
Philosophy
 Attack “soft targets”

 Rapidity of attacks

 Isolated attacks against military targets

and stealing weapons

 Emphasis on a media strategy

 Develop strong administrators

 Understand the “political game”

Abu Bakr Naji –
Philosophy

Role of civilians

 Important to win their support

 But not broadly

 More important: Polarization

End Result: Ambiguous