Example 1:

Gas supplier system contains of filter unit (R1), a heater (R2), 3 compressors (R3/R4/R5), & 5 gas
turbines (R6/R7/R8/R9/R10/R11).

The 3 comprempressors operates. The 5 turbines work in parallel, meaning that the compressors
sub-system operates if at least one of the cos work in parallel, meaning that the turbines sub-
system if at least two turbines operates.

Each component may fail independently of the others, with the following failure probability (λ):

R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10
0.05 0.07 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19

1- System reliability if at least 2 turbines operate to avoid system failure?

2- System reliability if at least 3 turbines operate to avoid system failure?

D
C

A B

Solution:

The reliability of the system defined as the probability that system dosn’t fail during maintenance
intervals.Therefor, to calculate the reliability of the whole system, we should calculate reliability
of each sub-system separately.

A- System reliability calculations:

1- Filter sub-system reliability (A): RA = 1-λ = 1-0.05= 0.95

2- Heater sub-system reliability (B): RB = 1-λ = 1-0.07= 0.93
3- Compressors sub-system reliability (C): RC = 1-(λ)x(λ)x(λ)=1-(0.12x0.1x.09)= 0.9989
OR using Failure ratio formula (t=1) =1-[((1-EXP(-0.12))x(1-EXP(-0.1))x(1-EXP(-0.09))] =
 0.9991

Same reliability result we will get from the table below by sum the reliability for all 7
probability cases, as the sub-system can be operated by one compressor only. (yellow cell
=off/white cell=on)

R3 R4 R5 Relia bility %
1 0.12 0.1 0.09 0.721 72.07%
2 0.12 0.1 0.09 0.098 9.83%
3 0.12 0.1 0.09 0.080 8.01%
4 0.12 0.1 0.09 0.071 7.13%
5 0.12 0.1 0.09 0.011 1.09%
6 0.12 0.1 0.09 0.010 0.97%
7 0.12 0.1 0.09 0.008 0.79%

sum= 99.89%

4- Turbines sub-system reliability (D): RD = 0.996

reliability result we will get from the table below by sum the reliability for all 26 probability
cases sub-system on, as the sub-system can be operated by 2 turbines only. (yellow cell
=off/white cell=on)

R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 Reliability %
1 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.379 37.88%
2 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.062 6.17%
3 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.072 7.22%
4 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.078 7.76%
5 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.107 10.68%
6 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.089 8.89%
7 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.012 1.17%
8 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.013 1.26%
9 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.017 1.74%
10 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.014 1.45%
11 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.015 1.48%
12 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.020 2.04%
13 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.017 1.69%
14 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.025 2.51%
15 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.022 2.19%
16 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.018 1.82%
17 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.002 0.24%
18 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.003 0.33%
19 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.003 0.28%
20 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.004 0.36%
21 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.003 0.30%
22 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.004 0.41%
23 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.004 0.42%
24 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.003 0.35%
25 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.005 0.48%
26 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.005 0.51%

sum= 99.60%

5- Reliability for whole gas supplier system (ABCD): RD = RA x RB*RC*RD=

0.95x0.93x0.9989x0.996
RD= 0.8790
As each sub-system connected to each other by series connection, we just multiply their
reliability to get Rt=0.8787

B- System reliability calculations if (turbines sub-system can be operated by 3 turbines only):

1- Turbines sub-system reliability (D): RD = 0.9594

reliability result we will get from the table below by sum the reliability for only 16 probability
cases sub-system on, as the sub-system can be operated by 3 turbines only. (yellow cell
=off/white cell=on)

R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 Reliability %
1 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.379 37.88%
2 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.062 6.17%
3 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.072 7.22%
4 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.078 7.76%
5 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.107 10.68%
6 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.089 8.89%
7 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.012 1.17%
8 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.013 1.26%
9 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.017 1.74%
10 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.014 1.45%
11 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.015 1.48%
12 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.020 2.04%
13 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.017 1.69%
14 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.022 2.19%
15 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.018 1.82%
16 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.025 2.51%

sum= 95.94%

The reliability of turbines system reduced as there is more chance for system to fail comparing
with previous case.

2-Reliability for whole gas supplier system(ABCD): RD= RA x RB*RC*RD=

0.95x0.93x0.9985x0.9594
RD= 0.8467
Example 2:

Diesel engines contains of 4 cambers, each 2 chambers is connected in parallel system. It means
at least one chamber has to work in each loop, but both loop connected in series as diagram
show below. Assume that each chamber fail to ignite once in 10 attempts. After operation,
chamber has 40% chance to completely collapse.

1- System reliability?
2- System MTTF & Failure Ratio λ?
3- Maximum and minimum hours can generators work per year?

A B

Solution:

A- System reliability calculations:

1- Failure ratio for each chamber (FR) = number of failures/ number of attempts (λ) = 1/10= 0.1
failures/hours
2- Engine sub-system reliability (A): RA = 1-[((1-EXP(-0.1))x(1-EXP(-0.1))] =0.9909
3- Engine sub-system reliability (B): RB = 1-[((1-EXP(-0.1))x(1-EXP(-0.1))] =0.9909
4-Reliability for diesel generator system(AB): RAB= RA x RB= 0.9909^2= 0.9820

B- System MTTF calculations:

MTTF= 1/λ, but we need to calculate MTTF for whole engine system

Rs(t)=RAxRB = [1-[((1-EXP(-λt))x(1-EXP(-λt))]] x [1-[((1-EXP(-λt))x(1-EXP(-λt))]]

= [2 x exp(-λt) - exp(-2xλt)] x [2 x exp(-λt) - exp(-2xλt)]
= 4exp(-2λt)-4exp(-3λt)+exp(-4λt)
To ensure from such derived equation, if we apply λ=0.1, and t=1, we will get same R AB as above
0.9820.
 ∫
MTTF= Rs(t)dt= [4exp(-2λt)-4exp(-3λt)+exp(-4λt)]dt

MTTF= 4/2λ - 4/3λ + 1/4λ= (24-16+3)/12λ = 11/12λ

MTTF= 11/12λ = 11/(12x0.1)= 9.16667 hours
MDT (Mean down time) =

Maximum days diesel engines can be operated/year = (9.16667/24)x365= 139.4 days

C- System failure ratio λ calculations:

MTTFs = 1/λs
Failure ratio (FR) = λs=1 / MTTFs => 1/9.16667 = 0.1091 failures per hour
OR 0.1091 x 24 x 365= 0.1091 x 8760= 955.63 failures per year
System failure ratio λs = 956 failures per year

D- System calculations after (chamber reliability reduced during time to 0.6 and system collapsed :

System MTTF calculations for each chamber:

MTTF= 1/λ
MTTF= 1/0.4 = 2.5 hours

System failure ratio λ calculations:

t=MTTF = 1/λs = 2.5 hours

Rs(t)=RAxRB = 4exp(-2λt)-4exp(-3λt)+exp(-4λt) [λ=0.4, t=2.5]
Rs(t)= 0.36051

Failure ratio (FRt) = ln[Rs(t)]/t = -Ln(0.36051)/2.5= 0.408096 failures per hour

OR 0.408096 x 24 x 365= 0.408096 x 8760= 3575 failures per year
System failure ratio λs = 3575 failures per year

System MTTF calculations:

MTTFs= 1/λs
MTTF= 1/0.408096 = 2.4504 hours

Minimum days diesel engines can be operated/year = (9.16667/24)x365 = 37.27 days