Equity Research INDIA

December 15, 2020

BSE Sensex: 46263 Consumer Staples & Discretionary
ICICI Securities Limited
is the author and Outlook 2021: Equal preference for Staples &
distributor of this report
Discretionary
CY2021: Potentially a year of consumption recovery (on low base for some).
Sector update
Staples: We see moderate inflation and return of rural wage growth to be the key
drivers. We expect the industry formalisation thesis to sustain – strategic focus on
growth even at the cost of (gross) margins. There are risks too – consumers reverting to
pre-CY20 behaviour (lower health and hygiene focus, lower in-home consumption of
packaged food).
Discretionary: Growth drivers are (1) sharp demand recovery (mostly priced in), (2)
store expansion (locking in lower rentals) and (some) cost efficiencies driving operating
leverage benefits.
Paints: We remain structural bulls as companies continue to focus on creating multiple
growth drivers, mostly DCF-accretive (home décor, ancillary products – waterproofing,
adhesives, primer, putty).
Valuation: As per I-Sec Consumer Momentum Indicator (CMI), we find better margin of
safety in Staples (4% undervaluation) over Discretionary (28% overvaluation).
 Top picks: Akzo, Bajaj Cons., Dabur, Godrej Cons., HUL, ITC, Jyothy Lab
 Businesses with industry tailwinds: Jubilant Foodworks, Titan, Sheela Foam,
Westlife, Zydus Wellness
 Executing better: Asian Paints, Emami, Marico, Nestle, Tata Cons., United Spirits
 Special situation: Bajaj Consumer
 Preferred turnaround picks: Akzo Nobel, Page
Top-10 trends for 2021:
#1 Staples growth recovery could be delayed – lags GDP growth by 4-6 quarters
#2 Inflationary environment key to revenue growth performance
#3 Rural wage growth necessary for real rural recovery
#4 Optical recovery in rural and premiumisation trend
#5 Consumers reverting back to pre-COVID behaviour could be a big risk to growth
#6 Channel dynamics – opportunities & otherwise
#7 Retailers look for store network expansion in CY2021 (after a pause in CY2020)
#8 Volume growth focus over gross margins
Research Analysts: #9 Cost savings and efficiencies to likely support operating margins
Manoj Menon #10 M&As could accelerate – bolt-ons
Manoj.menon@icicisecurities.com
+91 22 6637 7209
Valuation and risks: We value stocks on DCF (WACC and TG ranging from 10-13%, 3-
Vismaya Agarwal, CFA
vismaya.agarwal@icicisecurities.com 6% respectively) except Godrej Cons. and Tata Cons. which we value on SoTP basis.
+91 22 2277 7632 Key upside risk is better-than-expected gross margins due to correction in input prices.
Karan Bhuwania Key downside risk is unexpected irrational competition due to deceleration in general
karan.bhuwania@icicisecurities.com
+91 22 6637 7351 consumption demand. Please refer table 8 for revised target prices and ratings.
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
 Consumer Staples & Discretionary, December 15, 2020 ICICI Securities

2020 – The year that was

The year 2020 has been a year of two halves. Staples companies largely
outperformed Discretionary and Paints in the first six months – most products were
termed under the essentials category and were therefore operational during the
COVID-led lockdown. This performance was also probably driven by the technical
aspect of a run for safer investment opportunities.
However, in the second half, the Discretionary and Paints outperformed, led by strong
sequential recovery – in most cases, much faster than consensus expectations.
Table 1: Stock performance in 1HCY20 and 2HCY20
Stock Performance for CY2020
Stocks 1HCY20 2HCY20
Staples
Bajaj Consumer (38) 45
Britannia 19 4
Colgate (4) 14
Dabur 2 10
Emami (29) 92
GCPL 1 5
HUL 13 6
ITC (18) 10
Jyothy Labs (20) 21
Marico 3 16
Nestle 16 6
Tata Consumer 21 47
Varun Beverages (4) 35
Zydus Wellness (13) 47

Discretionary
Avenue Supermarts 26 14
Bata (25) 23
Jubilant Foodworks 5 49
Page Industries (15) 24
Sheela Foam 14 13
Titan (20) 55
United Spirits (1) 0
Westlife Development (10) 36

Paints
Akzo Nobel (7) 23
Asian Paints (5) 50
Berger Paints (4) 39
Kansai Nerolac (14) 23
Source: Bloomberg, I-Sec research

2
Consumer Staples & Discretionary, December 15, 2020 ICICI Securities
Table 2: Stock performance for CY2020
Price as on Absolute Relative Change
Stocks High Change (%) Low
15-Dec-20 31-Dec-19 return (%) return (%) (%)
Staples
Tata Consumer 571 321 77.8 66.3 580 (1.5) 227 152.2
Emami 424 310 36.9 25.4 443 (4.2) 154 175.0
Varun Beverages 919 709 29.8 18.3 919 0.0 529 73.7
Zydus Wellness 1,873 1,470 27.4 15.9 1,917 (2.3) 1,188 57.6
Nestle 3,766 3,028 24.4 12.9 3,983 (5.5) 2,138 76.1
HUL 18,190 14,785 23.0 11.5 18,592 (2.2) 12,945 40.5
Britannia 2,320 1,923 20.6 9.1 2,488 (6.7) 1,838 26.2
Marico 409 342 19.6 8.1 415 (1.6) 240 70.1
Dabur 514 458 12.1 0.6 528 (2.7) 396 29.7
Colgate 1,605 1,463 9.7 (1.8) 1,625 (1.3) 1,095 46.6
GCPL 723 685 5.6 (5.9) 762 (5.2) 434 66.5
Jyothy Labs 143 147 (2.9) (14.4) 162 (12.0) 88 61.8
ITC 214 238 (10.2) (21.7) 243 (12.2) 147 45.0
Bajaj Consumer 212 236 (10.4) (21.9) 241 (12.1) 120 76.0

Discretionary
Jubilant Foodworks 2,582 1,652 56.2 44.7 2,648 (2.5) 1,228 110.3
Avenue Supermarts 2,640 1,838 43.6 32.1 2,685 (1.7) 1,790 47.5
Sheela Foam 1,637 1,267 29.2 17.7 1,737 (5.8) 1,179 38.8
Westlife Development 1,469 1,188 23.6 12.1 1,469 0.0 801 83.4
Titan 418 343 21.8 10.3 486 (13.9) 278 50.6
Page Industries 24,631 23,393 5.3 (6.2) 26,307 (6.4) 16,498 49.3
United Spirits 594 600 (0.9) (12.4) 730 (18.6) 448 32.6
Bata 1,607 1,752 (8.3) (19.8) 1,873 (14.2) 1,061 51.4

Paints
Asian Paints 2,527 1,785 41.6 30.1 2,548 (0.8) 1,498 68.7
Berger Paints 684 516 32.7 21.2 684 0.0 404 69.3
Akzo Nobel 2,257 1,971 14.5 3.0 2,478 (8.9) 1,767 27.8
Kansai Nerolac 550 522 5.4 (6.1) 564 (2.4) 299 83.8
Source: Bloomberg, I-Sec research

Chart 1: Stock performance (CY2020) – Staples

78

90
80
70
60
50
37

30

40
27

24
(%)

23

21

20

30
12

10

20
(10)
6

10
(10)
(3)

0
(10)
(20)
Dabur
Emami

Jyothy Labs
Marico

Colgate
Varun Beverages

Nestle

ITC
Britannia

HUL

GCPL

Bajaj Consumer
Zydus Wellness
Tata Consumer

Source: Bloomberg, I-Sec research

3
Consumer Staples & Discretionary, December 15, 2020 ICICI Securities
Chart 2: Stock performance (CY2020)– Discretionary

56
60

44
50
40

29

24

22
30

(%)
20

(8)
(1)
5
10
0
(10)
(20)

Avenue Supermarts

Bata
Sheela Foam

Titan

Page Industries
Westlife Development
Jubilant Foodworks

United Spirits
Source: Bloomberg, I-Sec research

Chart 3: Stock performance (CY2020) – Paints

42

45
40 33
35
30
25
(%)

20

14
15
10

5
5
0
Paints

Berger

Akzo Nobel

Nerolac
Paints
Asian

Kansai
Source: Bloomberg, I-Sec research

4
Consumer Staples & Discretionary, December 15, 2020 ICICI Securities
Table 3: Volume growth rates
Company FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
(%) Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
PAINTS
Asian Paints 12 12 3 12 2 9 7 11 14 11 23 10 16 14 11 2 (38) 11
Berger 12 10 7 11 6 9 11 14 17 15 17 11 13 12 10 (5) (40) 17
Kansai Nerolac 10 10 9 11 11 18 15 14 15 10 15 8 (3) (3) (1) (13) (55) 15
Akzo Nobel 7 10 3 8 - 2 5 8 8 7 7 7 8 (7) (5) (15) (62) 7
STAPLES
Britannia 8 7 2 2 2 6 13 13 13 10 7 7 3 3 2 - 22 9
Bajaj Corp - Total 1 (0) (6) (7) (8) 5 5 6 9 (3) 7 6 5 (0) (9) (30) (23) 5
Bajaj Corp - ADHO 2 2 (4) (7) (7) 6 5 7 11 (2) 9 6 5 1 (7) (29) (23) 5
Colgate (Toothpaste) 5 4 (14) (3) (5) (1) 12 4 4 7 7 5 4 4 2 (8) (3) 2
Dabur (Domestic) 4 5 (5) 2 (4) 7 13 8 21 8 12 4 10 5 6 (15) (10) 17
Emami 17 10 - (2) (18) 10 6 9 18 (4) 3 - - 1 (2) (19) (28) 10
GCPL - Domestic Volume 3 9 (3) 5 - 10 18 6 14 5 1 1 5 5 7 (15) 3 5
GCPL - Domestic Soaps 12 (5) (6) 5 (8) 10 16 19 10 11 2 - 5 6 6 (23) (2) 18
GCPL - Domestic Hair
1 (3) (1) 10 2 1 25 2 10 13 - 8 - - (4) (23) (18) (5)
Color
Hindustan Unilever 3 4 - - 2 (7) (5) (4) 1 7 8 8 3 3 2 (10) (35) (12)
ITC* 10 8 4 5 (18) 4 12 11 19 4 6 5 6 8 (6) (22) 6 9
Jyothy Labs (Overall) 8 3 (4) 10 (9) 8 9 1 12 6 5 8 6 1 1 (3) (14) 11
Marico - Parachute 7 (6) (1) 15 (9) 12 15 (5) 9 8 9 6 9 (1) (2) (8) (11) 10
Marico - Saffola 11 8 7 6 (9) 3 - (1) 10 5 2 18 3 1 11 25 16 20
Marico - VAHO 9 11 (12) 10 (8) 12 8 11 15 5 7 1 7 - (7) (11) (30) 4
Nestle* 11 8 9 18 7 12 14 10 9 12 9 9 11 9 7 7 - 7
United Spirits - 1 (5) (9) (19) (16) (14) (2) 1 10 4 1 6 1 (2) (13) (49) (3)
QSR's
Jubilant – SSSG (3) 4 (3) (8) 7 6 18 27 26 21 15 6 4 5 6 (3) (47) (20)
Westlife Dev – SSSG 3 7 5 1 9 8 21 25 24 26 15 6 7 7 9 (7) (54) (41)
RETAIL
Avenue Supermarts –
19 14 12 12 15 21 18 17 14 9 11 10 (40) (19)
SSSG*
Page Industries 21 11 9 11 13 9 11 6 9 (0) 12 1 (2) 9 (3) (19) (69) (14)
Titan (Jewellery) 6 (32) 4 37 49 49 6 6 (3) 24 25 15 6 (14) (5) (20) (81) (31)
Shoppers Stop - SSSG 6 2 6 (1) 20 (6) 1 (4) (1) 4 9 4 5 (1) (1) (16)
V-Mart Retail – SSSG (5) 8 17 34 23 8 - 7 1 1 11 4 5 1 1 (18) (85)
Madura (EBO's) - SSSG (4) (10) (7) - 24 (3) 4 9 1 8 8 6 3 7 15 (6)
Pantaloons – SSSG 16 6 (2) (5) 14 (13) (3) (6) (2) (2) 17 4 4 10 5 (12)
Trent (Westside) - SSSG 8 10 9 9 14 10 6 6 8 6 12 10 12 14 10 (7)
Source: Company data, I-Sec research *Our estimates

5
Consumer Staples & Discretionary, December 15, 2020 ICICI Securities

#1 Staples growth recovery could be delayed – lags GDP growth by 4-

6 quarters
India GDP growth (decline) rates – (23.9%) in Q2CY2020 and (7.5%) in Q3CY2020.

Chart 4: GDP recovery in Q3CY2020 has been faster than consensus

expectations
15
10
5
0
-5
(%)

-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
Sep-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Mar-18

Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-20
Mar-11

Mar-12

Mar-13

Mar-14

Mar-15

Mar-16

Mar-17

Mar-19

Mar-20
Source: MOSPI, I-Sec research

Chart 5: Moderation in staples market growth in CY2020

Volume Price Value
30
20.1
20 16.2 15.7
13.4
6.1 11.6 10.3 11.6 11.0 10.0
3.0 3.8 7.3 6.6 6.0
10 5.0 4.4 2.8 2.4
3.5
3.0 4.5 6.0
14.0

3.8
13.2

11.9

3.4 3.1
9.9
8.8

8.6
6.6

6.2
5.9

3.9

3.5
(%)

0 -6.0

-10

-20 -27.7
-30
Mar'20

Apr-May'20
Q1FY18

Q2FY18

Q3FY18

Q4FY18

Q1FY19

Q2FY19

Q3FY19

Q4FY19

Q1FY20

Q2FY20

Q3FY20

June'20

July'20

Aug'20
Jan-Feb'20

Source: Industry reports, I-Sec research

Our analysis of nearly two decades shows that the staples industry growth rate usually
lags the GDP growth by almost 4-6 quarters. We see that even when GDP growth
rates accelerated over Mar’03-Mar’04, staples industry growth in FY2004 remained
low (+2%) and only improved in FY2005. We see a similar relationship between
staples industry growth and GDP growth over FY2011-14. We therefore believe that
despite any improvement in GDP growth, staples industry growth in general could
remain modest in CY2021, whereas we forecast outperformance for the listed / large /
industry formalisation-beneficiaries.

6
Consumer Staples & Discretionary, December 15, 2020 ICICI Securities
Chart 6: Staples growth lags GDP growth by 4-6 quarters

Staples growth GDP growth (RHS) 25.0

25
20 20.0

15 15.0

10 10.0

(%)
5.0

(%)
5

11

15
11

17
21
21
19
12
16
16

11
12

11
11
4
3
2

6
3
8
- -
(5) (5.0)
(10) (10.0)
(15) (15.0)

FY2022E
FY2021E
FY2000
FY2001
FY2002
FY2003
FY2004
FY2005
FY2006
FY2007
FY2008
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018
FY2019
FY2020
Source: Industry data, Bloomberg, I-Sec research *GDP estimated for FY21 and FY22 are IMF estimates

#2 Inflationary environment key to revenue growth performance

The ideal scenario for Staples is international inflation (in crude-linked inputs)
combined with domestic inflation. It allows the companies to implement price
increases, as it tends to create as environment in which consumer acceptance of price
increases is high. Long periods of low price growth are a concern for staples
companies if (volume) demand does not recover.

We note that in the current scenario, rising inflation in food and crude-linked
commodities provides a key lever of revenue growth for staples companies in CY2021.

Chart 7: Consumer prices have remained benign over the past five years
25 Volume growth Price / Mix growth
20

15

10
(%)

-5

-10
Q4FY12

Q3FY17

Q2FY21
Q1FY12
Q2FY12
Q3FY12

Q1FY13
Q2FY13
Q3FY13
Q4FY13
Q1FY14
Q2FY14
Q3FY14
Q4FY14
Q1FY15
Q2FY15
Q3FY15
Q4FY15
Q1FY16
Q2FY16
Q3FY16
Q4FY16
Q1FY17
Q2FY17

Q4FY17
Q1FY18
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q4FY18
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q4FY19
Q1FY20
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

7
8
-1%
1%
5%
7%
9%
13%

-5%
10%
15%
20%
3%
11%

0%
5%
Feb-12 Feb-11
Jun-12 Jun-11
Oct-12 Oct-11
Feb-12
Feb-13
Jun-12
Jun-13
Oct-12
Oct-13 Feb-13

Source: MOSPI, I-Sec research

Source: MOSPI, I-Sec research
Feb-14 Jun-13
Jun-14 Oct-13
Oct-14 Feb-14
Consumer Staples & Discretionary, December 15, 2020

Feb-15 Jun-14
Chart 8: Consumer Price Index

Jun-15 Oct-14
Oct-15 Feb-15
Chart 9: Consumer Food Price Index

Jun-15
Feb-16
Oct-15
Jun-16
Feb-16
Oct-16 Jun-16
Feb-17 Oct-16
Jun-17 Feb-17
Oct-17 Jun-17
Feb-18 Oct-17
Jun-18 Feb-18
Jun-18
Oct-18
Oct-18
Feb-19
Feb-19
Jun-19 Jun-19
Oct-19 Oct-19
Feb-20 Feb-20
Jun-20 Jun-20
Oct-20 Oct-20
ICICI Securities
 Consumer Staples & Discretionary, December 15, 2020 ICICI Securities
Table 4: Raw material price inflation trend
Spot Price Change (%) YoY QoQ
Raw Material Unit Q3FY21 Q3FY20 Q2FY21
Price 1M 2M 3M (%) (%)
Food
Tea - India Avg Rs/ kg 206 11 - (18) 196 138 42 247 (21)
Cocoa $/tonne 2,292 - (7) (2) 2,292 2,467 (7) 2,303 (0)
Coffee Arabica - International Usd/bag 114 (7) (1) (9) 120 128 (6) 120 (0)
Coffee Robusta - International USD/ MT 1,290 (5) 1 (12) 1,322 1,322 (0) 1,377 (4)
Sugar - domestic Rs/ Quintal 3,495 1 2 (0) 3,444 3,524 (2) 3,506 (2)
Wheat Rs/ Quintal 1,813 (2) 1 (0) 1,821 2,251 (19) 1,871 (3)
Barley Rs/ Quintal 1,453 0 4 6 1,428 2,121 (33) 1,393 3
Maize (corn) USD/ MT 204 (8) (6) 8 220 172 28 175 26
Liquid Milk - domestic Rs/ Ltr 36 (11) (2) (9) 39 46 (15) 39 0
Milk Powder - domestic Rs/ kg 280 - 3 (6) 276 330 (16) 285 (3)
Non-food
Crude oil - Brent USD/ Barrel 40 (8) (4) (4) 43 62 (31) 43 (0)
Crude Palm oil MYR/ Ton 91 2 14 17 85 65 29 75 14
PFAD USD/ MT 664 (5) (3) (0) 691 516 34 604 14
Light Liquid Paraffin (LLP) Rs/ Ltr 48 - 8 13 48 45 8 42 15
Copra Rs/ Quintal 12,416 - 2 10 12,416 10,408 19 11,289 10
Kardi oil Rs/ MT 1,623 - 1 (1) 1,623 1,973 (18) 1,667 (3)
Sunflower oil Rs/ MT 1,160 - 1 20 1,160 838 38 1,022 14
Mentha Oil Rs/ kg 1,096 1 0 (0) 1,089 1,390 (22) 1,097 (1)
HDPE - domestic Rs/ kg 97 - 2 5 97 85 14 92 5
Sorbitol Index 9,369 6 14 28 9,369 7,028 33 8,584 9
PAN Rs/ kg 75 (9) (5) (9) 82 95 (13) 84 (2)
Gold (INR) Rs/ 10 gm 50,249 (0) (1) (1) 50,424 38,153 32 51,242 (2)
Gold USD / oz 1,893 1 (1) (2) 1,882 1,483 27 1,910 (2)
TDI Rs/ kg 103 - (7) (10) 103 114 (10) 110 (6)
PU Rs/ kg 146 - (10) (14) 146 172 (15) 160 (8)
TiO2 Rs/ kg 147 (0) 1 1 148 141 5 147 0
Cotton – India Rs/ kg 195 (6) (4) 1 206 194 6 184 12
Glass Bottle Index 133 (1) 0 1 133 126 6 132 1
WPI Rectified Spirits Index 152 (1) (2) (2) 154 145 6 154 (0)
Source: Company data, I-Sec research

#3 Rural wage growth necessary for real rural recovery

Rural wage growth has lagged the rural consumer inflation in most of 2020 – implying
that rural real wage (RRW) has been declining, thereby pressuring the purchasing
power of the rural consumer. We believe that the return of rural real wage growth is
required for rural consumption outlook (directly) and aggregate demand (indirectly).

Chart 10: Rural real wage growth versus HUL’s volume growth

Spread HUL Volume growth

16 16
14 14
12 12
10 10
8 8
6 6
(%)

(%)

4 4
2 2
0 0
-2 -2
-4 -4
-6 -6
-8 -8
Sep-19
Sep-06

Sep-07

Sep-08

Sep-09

Sep-10

Sep-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-20

Source: Bloomberg, Company data, I-Sec research

9
Consumer Staples & Discretionary, December 15, 2020 ICICI Securities
Chart 11: Rural CPI and wage growth

Rural CPI Rural Wage Growth

25

20

15

(%)
10

-5

Oct-13
Oct-03

Oct-04

Oct-05

Oct-06

Oct-07

Oct-08

Oct-09

Oct-10

Oct-11

Oct-12

Oct-14

Oct-15

Oct-16

Oct-17

Oct-18

Oct-19

Oct-20
Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Chart 12: Rural household income by sources

Livestock rearing Others
4% 2%
Other enterprises
8%

Cultivation
19%
Wage Labour
43%

Govt./Pvt. Service
24%

Source: NABARD, I-Sec research

Chart 13: Rabi crops area sown increase / decrease (%)

15

10

5
(%)

(5)

(10)
Wheat Rice Pulses Coarse Oilseeds Total
Cereals Foodgrains

Source: Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers' Welfare, I-Sec research

10
Consumer Staples & Discretionary, December 15, 2020 ICICI Securities
Chart 14: Kharif production growth (%) – first advanced estimates FY21
25

20

15

(%)
10

(5)
Wheat Pulses Coarse Cereals Oilseeds Total Foodgrains

Source: Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers' Welfare, I-Sec research

Increase in ancillary product prices required to support rural wages

Chart 15: Eggs prices

600

550

500
(Rs/100Kg)

450

400

350

300
Jul-19

Jul-20
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19

Jun-19

Dec-19
Jan-20

Jun-20
Apr-19

Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19

Apr-20

Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Feb-19
Mar-19

May-19

Feb-20
Mar-20

May-20

Source: NECC, I-Sec research

Chart 16: Shrimp prices

15
15
14
14
13
(US$/Kg)

13
12
12
11
11
10
Nov-18
Dec-18

Nov-19
Dec-19

Jul-20
Jul-18

Jul-19
Jun-18

Jan-19

Jun-19

Jan-20

Jun-20

Sep-20
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18

Apr-19

Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19

Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20

Aug-20

Oct-20
Feb-19
Mar-19

May-19

Feb-20

Source: Indexmundi, I-Sec research

11
Consumer Staples & Discretionary, December 15, 2020 ICICI Securities
Chart 17: Skimmed Milk Prices

3,200
3,000
2,800
2,600

(US$/MT)
2,400
2,200
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400

Jul-19

Jul-20
Jan-20
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19

Jun-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Jun-20

Nov-20
Dec-20
Mar-19
Apr-19

Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19

Apr-20

Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Feb-19

May-19

Feb-20
Mar-20

May-20
Source: Global Daily Trade, I-Sec research

#4 Optical recovery in rural and premiumisation trend

Zomato says (link), 20% of its customers from larger cities have moved to smaller
towns. We believe that these consumers could still continue to consume the same
products (relatively more premium versus the usual consumer in smaller towns). This
means that the commentary from the companies could be around faster recovery in
rural driven by greater consumption (more people) and premiumisation. We however
note that this could be partly optical and not sustainable, although some of it could be
sticky due to penetration of premium products into new households.

Chart 18: Rural growing ahead of Urban since lockdown

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

#5 Consumers going back to pre-COVID behaviour could be a big risk

to growth in FY22
We see risk to Staples growth in CY2021 is consumer behaviour reverting entirely to
pre-COVID.

We note the strong growth witnessed by food categories (biscuits, noodles, edible oils,
etc.) in CY2020. We expect the higher in-home consumption-led demand to moderate
in CY2021, which could even lead to a decline in parts of CY2021. That said, any
increase in household penetration during the pandemic could be sticky and hence is

12
Consumer Staples & Discretionary, December 15, 2020 ICICI Securities
DCF-accretive. A case in point is commentary by Marico, which indicated that 62% of
the growth in Saffola brand is driven by increased household penetration. More such
data points for other brands / categories could give a definite answer.

Similarly, we see a big risk in terms of consumers reverting to pre-COVID behaviour.

Increased buying of health and hygiene products have been the key driver for growth
for many of these companies. However, after an initial frenzy for sanitisers, sales for
the category have dropped significantly sequentially – Dabur mentioned Rs800mn
sales in 1Q dropping to Rs120mn in 2Q; Bajaj Consumer mentioned they are now
looking at the product only as a tactical opportunity.

#6 Channel dynamics – opportunities & otherwise

With normalisation returning, Modern Trade could recover back to pre-Covid levels
while e-commerce can continue to grow faster (recruitment of new consumers during
the pandemic). This means that the strong growth witnessed by the general trade
channel could be under pressure – thereby creating difficulties for the companies in
terms of channel planning and maintaining the distributor level profitability.

13
Consumer Staples & Discretionary, December 15, 2020 ICICI Securities
#7 Retail / discretionary companies look for store network expansion
in CY2021 (after a pause in CY2020)
Store openings in CY2020 were delayed earlier due to Covid-led lockdown and then
due to lack of footfalls. Entering into CY2021, we note two key themes to be playing
out in terms of network expansion.

A. Correction in real estate prices and rentals could persuade retailers to

accelerate store expansion in CY2021 – in a bid to block rentals at lower rates

B. There could, in our opinion, also be an increased focus on opening more

stores in smaller cities (where they have low or no presence)

Table 5: Commentary on store expansion plans

Comments
So on jewellery we have opened 14 stores so far. A large number of them was spill over
from the previous year. And, after the pause that we had in the first few months of this
Ajoy Chawla - CEO, fiscal, we are now recommencing our growth in terms of expansion. We think we may
Jewellery Division, end the year somewhere between 30 to 34 additions for the year. We have stuff in the
Titan pipeline. So we are not holding back, in fact, we are seeing a benefit in going into
catchments and towns where presence is not there because people are more
comfortable shopping locally.
That's a little early right now (on FY22 store opening targets). We are right now focused
Pratik Pota - CEO, on FY21, the number we talked about for this year, as you know, is over 100 stores. But
Jubilant Foodworks it would be fair to say that the momentum would accelerate for next year as we exit this
year.

Is going to be the same, you got to give up all of last year but essentially we will come
Amit Jatia - Vice
back to the 25 to 30 openings every year at the earliest. I feel can we start by April; I
Chairman, Westlife
don’t know but definitely by June. So pretty much from next year maybe we should be
Development
back to our old trajectory of store openings.

What will happen this year, to be very honest my message to all of you is do not expect
maintaining the run rate of last year. We have lost four months and with monsoons,
Neville Noronha – construction has got impacted severely because of this. We do not give forward looking
MD and CEO, statements, but I will tell you this year store opening will be muted. All we can tell you is
Avenue Supermarts we will make it up in the next year. We opened 21 stores last to last year and we opened
38 last year, so probably 21 + 38 is 59 in two years, is something we will probably be
looking at
Source: Company data, I-Sec research

#8 Volume growth focus over gross margins

With overall market growth likely to be tepid (weak demand scenario, downtrading),
the only option for the companies to grow their revenues is through market share
gains from unorganised / smaller players. We note a potential shift in trajectory for
companies like HUL (see report) which are now likely to focus on volume growth even
at the expense of gross margins. We believe that other companies may follow, if
overall market growth remains under pressure.

HUL’s comment in Q2FY21 call:

“I think the right thing for us to do is to focus on competitive volume-led growth. And if
it means that some of the margin expansion is not at the desired levels or the levels
we would like to be, itis absolutely okay with us. We will invest to drive growth.”

14
 Consumer Staples & Discretionary, December 15, 2020 ICICI Securities
#9 Cost savings and efficiencies to likely support operating margins
At the same time, we also expect a large part of cost savings from CY2020 to continue
in CY2021 – thereby providing a cushion to earnings. We expect some benefits from
CY2020, like lower ad-spends, savings in travelling expenses, etc. to be temporary.
However, we do note comments from Britannia and HUL on using this opportunity to
make changes to their assortment – becoming leaner.

Chart 19: Growth of employee costs Chart 20: Growth of other expenses (including ad-
spends)
14 15
12 10
10
5
8
-
(%)

(%)
6
(5)
4
(10)
2
- (15)

(2) (20)
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18

1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
4QFY20
1QFY21
2QFY21

1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18

1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
4QFY20
1QFY21
2QFY21
4QFY18

4QFY18
Source: Company data, I-Sec research Source: Company data, I-Sec research

#10 M&As could accelerate – bolt-ons

We note that in recent years, there have been numerous instances of Indian
entrepreneurs identifying consumer needs, building the right product / service offering
and reaching a meaningful scale. These brands have succeeded in offering a
differentiated product proposition and have gained a share of the consumer’s
shopping basket which has traditionally been dominated by the larger players.

We believe that the large staples players will incrementally focus on bolt-on
acquisitions of such brands with a differentiated offering, providing them with an entry
into either a new category or a new region. This trend is likely to further accelerate in
CY2021 as a lot of smaller companies could find themselves under liquidity pressure.

Table 6: Some of the recent acquisitions

Brand Company Investors Announcement date
Sunrise Sunrise Foods ITC July-20
Food &
Adityaa Milk Ice Creams Vijaykant Dairy & Food Products HUL Aug-18
Beverages
GSK Consumer Healthcare GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare HUL Dec-18
VWash Glenmark Pharmaceuticals HUL June-20
Nimyle ITC Jun-18
Indulekha Mosons Group HUL Dec-15
Health &
Bombay Shaving Company Visage Lines Personal Care Colgate Global Aug-18
Personal Care
Beardo Zed Lifestyle Marico (45% stake) Mar-17
Ustra Happily Unmarried Wipro Consumer Nov-17
The Man Company Helios Lifestyle Emami (30% stake) Dec-17
Source: Company data, I-Sec research

15
Consumer Staples & Discretionary, December 15, 2020 ICICI Securities
Chart 21: HUL leveraging M&A to expand portfolio

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

16
Consumer Staples & Discretionary, December 15, 2020 ICICI Securities

I-SEC Consumer Momentum Indicator (ICMI) indicates that

sector overvaluation at 19% remains high
Our analysis of >25 years of history (FY1991-FY2021) suggests that risk-reward is
neutral. As per I-SEC Consumer Momentum Indicator (ICMI), we find sector
overvaluation of c.19% (was 31% in Apr’20 at the recent peak). We believe ICMI is a
good reflection of relative valuations (>25 year back-tested lead indicator) as it
considers relative earnings momentum.

Having said that, we do note the differences in valuation for sub-sectors -

overvaluation of discretionary companies is at 28%, staples at -4% (undervaluation
actually). However, this staples data point is significantly pulled down by ITC – ex of
ITC, staples overvaluation is at 34%.

Chart 22: I-SEC Consumer Momentum Indicator – Consumer

(x) Consumer profit index/Nifty profit index Consumer index/Nifty Index
7.5
7.0 I II III IV V VI
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5 Overvaluation of
2.0 19%
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Apr-95
Apr-96

Apr-98

Apr-00
Apr-01
Apr-02

Apr-05

Apr-07

Apr-09

Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16

Apr-18

Apr-20
Apr-21
Apr-97

Apr-99

Apr-03
Apr-04

Apr-06

Apr-08

Apr-10

Apr-17

Apr-19
Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Chart 23: I-SEC Consumer Momentum Indicator – Staples

(x) Staples profit index/Nifty profit index Staples index/Nifty Index
5.5
I II III IV V VI
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0 Undervaluation
1.5 of 4%
1.0
0.5
0.0
Apr-95
Apr-96

Apr-98

Apr-00
Apr-01
Apr-02

Apr-05

Apr-07

Apr-09

Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16

Apr-18

Apr-20
Apr-21
Apr-97

Apr-99

Apr-03
Apr-04

Apr-06

Apr-08

Apr-10

Apr-17

Apr-19

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

17
Consumer Staples & Discretionary, December 15, 2020 ICICI Securities
Chart 24: I-SEC Consumer Momentum Indicator – Staples (ex-ITC)
(x) Staples profit index/Nifty profit index Staples (ex-ITC) index/Nifty Index
8.0
7.5 I II III IV V VI
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5 Overrvaluation
1.0 of 34%
0.5
0.0
Apr-95
Apr-96

Apr-98

Apr-00
Apr-01
Apr-02

Apr-05

Apr-07

Apr-09

Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16

Apr-18

Apr-20
Apr-21
Apr-97

Apr-99

Apr-03
Apr-04

Apr-06

Apr-08

Apr-10

Apr-17

Apr-19
Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Chart 25: I-SEC Consumer Momentum Indicator – Discretionary

(x) Consumer profit index/Nifty profit index Consumer index/Nifty Index
18.0
I II III IV V VI
16.0
14.0 Overvaluation of
28%
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
Apr-95
Apr-96

Apr-98

Apr-00
Apr-01
Apr-02

Apr-05

Apr-07

Apr-09

Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16

Apr-18

Apr-20
Apr-21
Apr-97

Apr-99

Apr-03
Apr-04

Apr-06

Apr-08

Apr-10

Apr-17

Apr-19
Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Methodology
The two line charts above show a relative earnings index vs. the relative price index.
For the earnings index, we have taken the cumulative profits of consumer companies
and Nifty as 100 (base) for March 1995 and plotted the ratio. Similarly, for the relative
price index, we have taken the cumulative market cap for consumer companies (100
base for FY95) and Nifty (100 base for FY95). The slope of the two line graphs
indicates relative growth in earnings or market cap for the sector compared to the
overall market.

Phase I: Consensus expected rise of ‘Indian middle class’ consumption story

Phase II: Consumption hurt by low per capita income growth and consecutive
droughts, which hurt rural consumption growth

Phase III: Bull-run in infra and financial stocks while the consumer sector
underperforms

18
Consumer Staples & Discretionary, December 15, 2020 ICICI Securities
Phase IV: ITC, HUL outperform in 2008 and mean reversion is witnessed in 2009

Phase V: Earnings growth of consumer sector beats Nifty earnings growth. Flight to
safety and predictability supports sector valuations

Phase VI: Consumer sector continues to maintain premium valuations even though
bullish sentiment returns to Indian markets

While the fundamental reasons for a premium on consumer stocks are well
understood [strong return ratios (above cost of capital), steady growth in weak macro
environment, robust FCF], the implied growth rates appear unreasonable in some
cases.

19
Consumer Staples & Discretionary, December 15, 2020 ICICI Securities
Table 7: Ask rates in reverse DCF still high
Appropriate Terminal 10-year EBITDA Past 10-yr EBITDA
Company
WACC (%) growth (%) CAGR requirements CAGR (%)
Avenue Supermarts 11.0 6.0 24 44
Bajaj Consumer 12.5 5.0 3 8
Bata 11.0 6.0 12 20
Britannia 10.5 5.0 15 27
Colgate 11.0 6.0 11 10
Dabur 10.5 6.0 13 11
Emami 11.0 6.0 8 11
GCPL 11.5 6.0 11 18
HUL 10.5 6.0 14 13
ITC 10.5 3.0 5 11
Jubilant Foodworks 12.0 6.0 18 29
Jyothy Labs 12.5 6.0 8 11
Marico 11.0 6.0 13 15
Nestle 11.0 6.0 16 11
Page Industries 11.0 6.0 13 23
Sheela Foam 12.0 5.0 18 23
Tata Consumer 10.8 6.0 19 6
Titan 11.0 5.0 21 20
United Spirits 12.5 6.0 14 6
Varun Beverages 11.4 3.0 17 30
Westlife Development 12.0 6.0 17 38
Zydus Wellness 11.0 6.0 12 17
Source: Company data, I-Sec research

20
Consumer Staples & Discretionary, December 15, 2020 ICICI Securities
Target price and rating changes

Table 8: Updated target prices and rating changes

Target Price Rating
Old New Old New
Staples
Bajaj Consumer 200 230 ADD ADD
Britannia 3,200 3,200 REDUCE REDUCE
Colgate 1,500 1,600 HOLD HOLD
Dabur 580 580 ADD ADD
Emami 420 450 ADD ADD
GCPL 760 780 ADD ADD
HUL 2,400 2,600 ADD ADD
ITC 200 240 ADD ADD
Jyothy Labs 150 160 ADD ADD
Marico 415 440 ADD ADD
Nestle 16,500 17,500 HOLD HOLD
Tata Consumer 640 670 BUY BUY
Varun Beverages 750 970 ADD ADD
Zydus Wellness 2,500 2,500 BUY BUY
Discretionary
Avenue Supermarts 1,850 2,400 REDUCE REDUCE
Bata 1,170 1,400 REDUCE REDUCE
Jubilant Foodworks 2,600 2,800 ADD ADD
Page Industries 25,000 26,000 ADD ADD
Sheela Foam 1,700 2,000 BUY BUY
Titan 1,350 1,550 ADD ADD
United Spirits 580 630 ADD ADD
Westlife Development 380 470 HOLD ADD
Paints
Akzo Nobel 2,500 2,600 BUY BUY
Asian Paints 2,300 2,700 ADD ADD
Berger Paints 635 650 HOLD HOLD
Kansai Nerolac 510 550 HOLD HOLD
Source: I-Sec research

Table 9: Recommendation for consumer coverage

BUY ADD HOLD REDUCE
Akzo Nobel Asian Paints Berger Paints Avenue Supermarts
Sheela Foam Bajaj Consumer Colgate Bata
Tata Consumer Dabur Kansai Nerolac Britannia
Zydus Wellness Emami Nestle
GCPL
HUL
ITC
Jubilant Foodworks
Jyothy Labs
Marico
Page Industries
Titan
United Spirits
Varun Beverages
Westlife Development
Source: I-Sec research

21
Consumer Staples & Discretionary, December 15, 2020 ICICI Securities
Table 10: Valuation summary
CMP TP Upside PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ADTV Market Cap
Rating
Company (Rs) (Rs) (%) FY21E FY22E FY21E FY22E (US$ mn) (Rs bn) (US$ bn)
Staples
Bajaj Consumer 212 230 9 ADD 14 14 12 12 1.7 29 0.4
Britannia 3,766 3,200 (15) REDUCE 49 48 36 36 41.2 879 11.9
Colgate 1,605 1,600 (0) HOLD 48 44 31 29 17.9 419 5.7
Dabur 514 580 13 ADD 52 49 46 42 25.6 888 12.0
Emami 424 450 6 ADD 31 27 24 23 2.9 186 2.5
GCPL 723 780 8 ADD 41 37 30 28 15.0 726 9.8
HUL 2,320 2,600 12 ADD 70 59 50 42 72.1 5,132 69.6
ITC 214 240 12 ADD 20 18 16 13 74.2 2,439 33.1
Jyothy Labs 143 160 12 ADD 24 22 17 16 0.8 54 0.7
Marico 409 440 8 ADD 46 41 33 29 16.5 510 6.9
Nestle 18,190 17,500 (4) HOLD 81 67 53 45 35.6 1,719 23.3
Tata Consumer 571 670 17 BUY 56 45 32 28 33.4 519 7.0
Varun Beverages 919 970 5 ADD 86 44 22 18 3.5 241 3.3
Zydus Wellness 1,873 2,500 33 BUY 48 33 32 28 1.4 116 1.6
Discretionary
Avenue Supermarts 2,640 2,400 (9) REDUCE 142 75 87 51 21.0 1,582 21.4
Bata 1,607 1,400 (13) REDUCE 1,121 54 59 24 17.0 201 2.7
Jubilant Foodworks 2,582 2,800 8 ADD 122 59 39 26 28.1 338 4.6
Page Industries 24,631 26,000 6 ADD 112 55 68 37 16.8 268 3.6
Sheela Foam 1,637 2,000 22 BUY 42 27 25 18 0.7 81 1.1
Titan 1,469 1,550 6 ADD 186 57 96 37 53.1 1,276 17.3
United Spirits 594 630 6 ADD 85 42 44 27 16.2 421 5.7
Westlife Development 418 470 12 ADD (102) 57 82 20 1.1 67 0.9
Paints
Akzo Nobel 2,257 2,600 15 BUY 47 37 31 24 0.4 103 1.4
Asian Paints 2,527 2,700 7 ADD 85 67 54 43 75.1 2,339 31.7
Berger Paints 684 650 (5) HOLD 101 81 62 52 11.5 652 8.8
Kansai Nerolac 550 550 (0) HOLD 64 49 39 31 1.7 304 4.1
Source: Company data, I-Sec research

EV/ sales (x) P/B (x) P/CEPS (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) CAGR (FY20-22E) (%)
Company FY21E FY22E FY21E FY22E FY21E FY22E FY21E FY22E FY21E FY22E Revenues EBITDA PAT
Staples
Bajaj Consumer 3.5 3.3 4 3 14 14 27 24 29 25 4 7 8
Britannia 7.0 6.6 17 17 44 43 34 36 24 25 9 17 16
Colgate 9.1 8.5 24 23 39 36 55 57 66 68 6 11 12
Dabur 9.9 9.0 12 11 46 43 25 23 19 18 8 12 10
Emami 7.0 6.4 10 9 37 26 33 35 35 34 7 11 18
GCPL 7.1 6.6 9 8 37 34 22 22 18 18 8 12 12
HUL 12.3 10.8 13 12 62 53 31 21 26 18 14 15 15
ITC 5.7 4.9 4 4 18 16 21 25 22 27 5 3 (1)
Jyothy Labs 2.8 2.6 4 4 19 17 18 18 17 17 10 16 18
Marico 6.9 6.2 16 14 41 37 36 36 31 33 7 10 10
Nestle 12.8 11.1 98 68 69 58 117 120 43 46 12 17 15
Tata Consumer 4.6 4.1 4 3 44 37 7 8 8 9 14 19 29
Varun Beverages 4.3 3.4 6 6 29 22 8 14 9 14 5 2 8
Zydus Wellness 6.2 5.6 3 2 68 30 6 8 7 8 6 12 40
Discretionary
Avenue Supermarts 6.5 4.6 14 12 109 64 10 17 14 22 23 27 30
Bata 10.7 6.4 11 9 69 30 1 19 3 26 2 1 9
Jubilant Foodworks 9.6 7.1 26 19 53 35 23 37 17 28 10 21 39
Page Industries 10.9 7.8 29 24 87 48 28 47 22 38 10 19 20
Sheela Foam 3.5 2.5 7 6 31 21 19 24 18 23 18 21 20
Titan 7.0 4.3 18 15 121 48 10 29 11 33 19 20 23
United Spirits 5.8 4.6 10 8 58 34 12 21 14 23 2 3 14
Westlife Development 6.5 3.7 13 10 84 25 (12) 20 (8) 26 8 23 222
Paints
Akzo Nobel 4.2 3.5 8 7 35 29 17 19 16 19 2 3 6
Asian Paints 13.9 12.1 28 25 100 90 26 28 23 25 12 14 14
Berger Paints 10.8 9.1 21 18 77 64 23 24 19 20 7 9 10
Kansai Nerolac 6.4 5.1 8 7 48 38 12 15 12 14 6 10 10
Source: Bloomberg, I-Sec research

22
 (Rs) (Rs) (Rs) (Rs) (Rs) (Rs)

320
420
520
620
720
820
920
1,020
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800

100
200
300
400
500
600
700

500
1,000
1,500
2,000
1,300
1,500
1,900
2,100
2,500
2,700

1,700
2,300

GCPL

250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
Dec-17 Dec-17 Dec-17 Dec-17 Dec-17
Dec-17
Jun-18 Jun-18 Jun-18 Jun-18
Jun-18 Jun-18
Akzo Nobel
Dec-18 Dec-18 Dec-18 Dec-18
Dec-18 Dec-18

Berger Paints
Price charts

Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19

Jun-19 Jun-19

Kansai Nerolac

Tata Consumer

Zydus Wellness

Source: Bloomberg
Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19
Dec-19
Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20
Jun-20
Dec-20 Dec-20 Dec-20 Dec-20 Dec-20
Dec-20

(Rs) (Rs) (Rs) (Rs) (Rs)

HUL

200
250
300
350
400
450
600
1,600
2,600
3,100

1,100
2,100

Titan
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500

1100
1400

500
1700
2000
2300
2600

800

350
550
750
950
1,150
1,550
1,350
Marico
Dec-17 Dec-17 Dec-17 Dec-17
Dec-17 Britannia
Jun-18 Jun-18 Jun-18 Jun-18
Jun-18
Dec-18 Dec-18 Dec-18 Dec-18
Asian Paints

Dec-18
Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19
Jun-19
Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19
Dec-19
Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20
Jun-20
Dec-20 Dec-20 Dec-20
Dec-20 Dec-20

(Rs) (Rs) (Rs) (Rs) (Rs)

ITC

125
175
225
275
325
375
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
2,800

200
400
600
800
1,000
10,000
12,000
18,000
20,000

14,000
16,000

4,000
6,000
8,000
600
800
1,200
1,400
1,800

1,000
1,600

Nestle
Dec-17 Dec-17
Dec-17
Colgate

Dec-17 Dec-17
Jun-18 Jun-18 Jun-18
Jun-18 Jun-18
Consumer Staples & Discretionary, December 15, 2020

Dec-18 Dec-18 Dec-18

Dec-18 Dec-18

United Spirits
Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19
Jun-19 Jun-19
Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19
Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20
Avenue Supermarts

Dec-20 Dec-20 Dec-20 Dec-20 Dec-20

(Rs) (Rs) (Rs) (Rs) (Rs)

400

0
200
600
800
1,000
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550

200
700
1,700
2,200
3,200

1,200
2,700
100
175
250
325
400
475
550

Dabur

12,000
22,000
27,000
37,000
42,000

17,000
32,000
Dec-17 Dec-17 Dec-17
Dec-17 Dec-17
Jun-18 Jun-18 Jun-18
Jun-18 Jun-18
Dec-18 Dec-18 Dec-18 Dec-18
Dec-18
Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19
Jun-19
Page Industries
Bajaj Consumer

Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19

Varun Beverages
Dec-19
Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20
Jun-20
Jubilant Foodworks

Dec-20 Dec-20 Dec-20 Dec-20

Dec-20

(Rs) (Rs) (Rs) (Rs) (Rs)

650
850
1,050
1,250
1,450
1,650
1,850
0
200
400
600
800

150

50
100
200
250
300

100
200
300
400
500
600
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000

Emami

Dec-17 Dec-17 Dec-17 Dec-17 Dec-17

Jun-18 Jun-18 Jun-18 Jun-18 Jun-18
Bata India

Dec-18 Dec-18 Dec-18 Dec-18 Dec-18

Jyothy Labs

Sheela Foam

Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19 Jun-19

Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19
Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Jun-20
Dec-20 Dec-20 Dec-20 Dec-20
ICICI Securities

Dec-20
Westlife Development

23
 Consumer Staples & Discretionary, December 15, 2020 ICICI Securities
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New I-Sec investment ratings (all ratings based on absolute return; All ratings and target price refers to 12-month performance horizon, unless mentioned otherwise)
BUY: >15% return; ADD: 5% to 15% return; HOLD: Negative 5% to Positive 5% return; REDUCE: Negative 5% to Negative 15% return; SELL: < negative 15% return

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