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DAWN NEWS
03-04-2020

Bridging the gap

EditorialApril 03, 2020
THE National Coordination Committee, led by Prime Minister Imran Khan, has
taken the correct decision to extend by two weeks the countrywide restrictions
that were put in place to slow down the spread of the coronavirus. The meeting
also decided that PIA would operate special flights to bring back nearly 2,000
Pakistanis from different countries. These decisions reflect the federal
government’s acknowledgement that the spread of the virus can only be slowed
by aggressively pursuing social distancing and enforcing all actions that promote
the latter. However, there is still much that requires greater clarity.

Certain policy pronouncements by the federal government, for instance, are sending
signals that run counter to the umbrella policy of keeping people away from each
other and confined to their homes as much as possible. The formation of the volunteer
force named Corona Relief Tigers is one such step. At a time when speed is of the
essence and when protecting people from getting infected or infecting others is a
priority, one may question the wisdom of sending a large number of people out in the
field to contact those in their homes. Such action — however well-intentioned —
could expose the volunteers to the virus. In addition, there is the issue of how much
time, effort and resources would be required to get this ‘force’ ready to go out and
deliver the services, rations and information to people who need it most. The state
already has in place various mechanisms through which such service delivery can be
provided. The federal government has yet to provide satisfactory answers to these
concerns. In the same vein, providing a financial package to boost the construction
industry is a good step but will it not dilute the larger policy of keeping people away
from each other during the pandemic? Construction employs dozens of industries
which will all need to open up in order to kick-start the sector thereby bringing people
out in the open. Here too the government has to come up with a convincing
explanation.
These schemes may be diverting the government’s attention from where it really
needs to be focused. There still exists a worrying gap between the centre and the
provinces in terms of initiating policies that complement, and not contradict, each
other. The federal government has to respect the provinces’ autonomy provided by the
18th Amendment but it cannot abdicate its role of giving national direction and
providing leadership through cohesion and coordination. The federal government
must act as the cement that binds the provinces in a national goal through a common
outlook buttressed by vision, motivation and resources. The federal government
should not be competing with the provinces but complementing their efforts and
lending a hand wherever needed. It might be better for Islamabad to focus on such
areas instead of policies that raise more questions than answers.

Published in Dawn, April 3rd, 2020

IHK domicile law

EditorialApril 03, 2020
WHILE the world is preoccupied with battling the Covid-19 contagion, elements
within the Indian establishment, unfortunately, are still busy stirring up mischief
in India-held Kashmir. As reported in this paper on Thursday, India has passed
new domicile rules for IHK which, in effect, guarantee a massive demographic
shift in the region, and are a grim follow-up to last year’s scrapping of the
disputed region’s autonomous status. As per available details, anyone who has
resided in IHK for 15 years or has studied there for a specific period of time is
eligible to call occupied Kashmir his or her place of domicile. Kashmiri activists
have rightly called the move a sinister attempt to change the demographic profile
of the disputed area. They say the new law will allow those from outside the
region to snap up jobs and benefits that should be primarily available to
Kashmiris. Even Omar Abdullah, a loyalist former chief minister of IHK, who
was recently released from detention by New Delhi, has heaped criticism on
India for making the move at this time. “Talk about suspect timing... the
government slips in a new domicile law for J&K,” he has said.

It is highly condemnable that during a raging global health crisis the Indian state has
sought to ignite a new controversy in IHK. While the held region has been under
lockdown for over a year, now India itself — along with large swathes of the world —
is also under a lengthy self-imposed closure to keep the coronavirus at bay. These
times call for humanitarian measures and firm policy to protect people’s lives and
health. This is no time for sly political games, but it appears those who matter in New
Delhi are unmoved by such facts. India should not add to the Kashmiri peoples’
miseries and, instead of this bureaucratic subterfuge, it should adopt a conciliatory
policy towards the disputed region that aims to settle this decades-old dispute
peacefully, and as per the wishes of the Kashmiri people.

Published in Dawn, April 3rd, 2020

Bailing out industry

EditorialApril 03, 2020
QUITE rapidly, pressure is mounting on the government to do more for trade
and industry through the lockdowns since the losses are mounting with each
passing day. Some of those who have to run their payrolls for the month of
March are not sure if they will be able to do the same for the month of April. So
if the lockdowns continue, the ranks of those in severe hardship will only
increase. With this in mind, as well as other concerns such as export orders that
are ready or nearly ready for shipment but cannot move to the port due to the
lockdown, the industrial leaders of this country gathered together and met the
finance team on Wednesday. The traders are separately announcing their own
gatherings to mount pressure for a relaxation on the lockdowns. This pressure
will increase rapidly from here on for the government to either announce a relief
package for trade and industry or ease the lockdowns as each day brings more
losses.

The problem for the government is that lockdowns cannot be eased while the rate of
the Covid-19 infection is still rising. Doing so would be catastrophic since the
infection would return with a vengeance, forcing even more stringent lockdowns in
the immediate aftermath. The best way forward would be to build a mechanism that
allows government assistance to flow directly to the workers of the enterprises, thus
relieving the traders and owners from the burden of payroll expenses. This way the
government could partner with business to help develop a database of beneficiaries for
the targeted assistance they are preparing to release. Building this mechanism has its
own set of challenges, but the government should not put public resources at the
disposal of trade and industry owners in the name of helping the workers. Keeping the
payrolls running through the lockdowns is the collective responsibility of the
government and private sector, and they can partner with each other in the effort. But
government funds must not be used to bail out private capital, at least not at this stage.
The priority must remain targeted assistance for the poor and unemployed, and
building the database as well as the mechanism with which to target the assistance
directly to them. The time has come for business leaders to realise that the more data
they can share with the government about their payrolls, the greater the support they
become eligible for.

Published in Dawn, April 3rd, 2020

Online learning
Faisal BariApril 03, 2020

The writer is a senior research fellow at the Institute of Development and Economic
Alternatives, and an associate professor of economics at Lums.
UNIVERSITIES, which were in the middle of the spring semester when the
orders for closure were announced, have been told to remain shut until May 31.
It has raised significant questions for universities to consider.

If universities can continue the semester online, should they? The Higher Education
Commission initially asked all universities to go online. But, a few weeks later,
realising that a lot of universities do not have the infrastructure necessary to make the
transition quickly, the HEC seems to be saying that those universities that can should
move online, while others can take time (until the end of May) to develop and
implement the necessary infrastructure, materials and trainings.

There has been a fair bit of pushback from students on the issue of online classes. The
main points made, to the best of my knowledge, are about access to the internet,
bandwidth and internet stability issues. There are areas in Pakistan that do not have
good internet connectivity, and students who, for one reason or another, do not have
access to a stable, high-speed internet connection.

The point is well taken. Internet access needs to be ensured for all students. As the
HEC has standards for onsite teaching, they will also have to develop online teaching
standards to ensure a certain level of access to the internet and other technologies
before online teaching can become the default mode. But these will take some time.

Access is, in fact, the most straightforward of issues to address

right now.
Due to the lockdown and distancing rules, the burden on the internet in Pakistan and
across the world is also increasing rapidly. Internet speeds are starting to slow down.
We will also have to keep an eye on this. Infrastructure will need to be upgraded to
take into account the additional expected and unexpected traffic.

But this does not mean universities should not start experiments in online teaching. It
means we have to start looking for, developing and deploying solutions. It will take
some time for all universities to get there and for all students to have access of a
sufficient quality, but the work has to start now. And universities, given their
situations, will traverse this distance at varying speeds. The HEC should be ready to
invest in infrastructure, material development and trainings. It has already announced
some committees on these issues, but it remains to be seen what resources are
invested in this pursuit and what the results are.

Access, the issue being agitated on right now is, in fact, the most straightforward of
issues to address. There are several other, more complex problems to contend with.
Online teaching does not simply mean putting reading materials online and expecting
students to read, understand and/or regurgitate them. It does not mean that if you
change onsite examinations to open-book online examinations, there is nothing more
that needs to be adapted for online teaching.

Learning and teaching objectives of every course will have to be rethought. Teachers
have to carefully consider each instrument they use for getting material across to
students once again. Are synchronous and live classes needed? If so, since students
are not sitting together in one room, how are these to be conducted? Do online
platforms like Zoom or Microsoft Teams offer the same environment that a classroom
does and how? How do you structure class participation in synchronous classes? Or
could all teaching be done online without synchronous teaching? The teacher posts
readings and questions. The students can submit their questions, if they have any,
through email or in chat groups. Teachers and peers can respond to each other that
way. Will learning this way be even better than in face-to-face classes?

Technology could offer distinct advantages as well. We can do a lot of small group
and/or individual teaching too. If lectures could be recorded and made available to
students to view whenever it suits them individually, and teachers then schedule small
group or even one-on-one interactions (tutorials), learning in some subjects that
require a lot of discussion (such as philosophy) could become even better than
running large face-to-face classes.

A lot of thought needs to go into designing assessments. When faculty cannot conduct
in-class quizzes, tests and examinations, and are potentially restricted to open-book
and not necessarily strictly time-bound assessments, what sort of instruments can be
created? For example, live multiple-choice tests will not be easy if students do not
have sufficient bandwidth and internet stability. What could be a substitute for these?
How do we ensure new instruments get to the right level, how do we validate them,
and when do we move towards standardisation?

And it is not just teaching that needs to go online. A lot of administrative work of
universities also needs to shift to online platforms. Some of them, for some
universities, will take a lot of time.

Do bear in mind these things are important as it might not be just for a semester that
we have to move online. Nobody knows how long the situation with distancing and
partial lockdowns is going to continue. Even when the first wave of infections is
through, it might still not be possible to go back to the way things were and have
crowded dormitories, classes and/or cafeterias. Some universities in other countries
have started to plan for the next 18-odd months in totally online mode or in hybrid
mode at the very least.

Clearly, a lot of research and experimentation is needed here. The HEC’s insistence to
do this quickly will have issues. Internet access might come quickly, but the larger
and deeper issues need a lot more work. This is a difficult time to organise new things
as a lot of people are worried, and rightly so, about their and their families’ well-
being. Rather than worry too much about this semester, the HEC should really set up
incentives for the medium term so that we can get closer to long-term answers for the
deeper questions.
The writer is a senior research fellow at the Institute of Development and Economic
Alternatives, and an associate professor of economics at Lums.

Published in Dawn, April 3rd, 2020

Muslim response
Nikhat SattarApril 03, 2020

The writer is a freelance contributor with an interest in religion.

A GLOBAL virus outbreak of massive proportions has killed tens of thousands,
infected nearly a million and caused major changes to the way humans interact,
travel, eat and live. The nearest similar disaster was the Spanish flu in 1918 that
had infected 500m people and killed about a quarter of the world’s population at
that time.
To contain the spread of Covid-19, measures are being taken to isolate countries,
consisting of travel bans and restrictions on movement of people outside their homes.
This means dire changes to daily routines, including obtaining food, carrying out
necessary work, providing health services and undertaking social interactions.

One of the main actions of human beings is meeting religious obligations: to God and
to the people. The first is met through prayer, which, for Muslims, means
congregational prayers on Fridays and funerals, fasting, umrah and Haj. Christians
visit churches; Hindus and Sikhs go to temples; and Jews attend synagogues. Most
countries have banned gatherings of more than three to five people, since the virus
spreads fast among those who are in close proximity to each other. Religious
gatherings that have people interacting with each other closely can be a major cause
for the rapid spread of the virus.

Considering the deadly nature of the virus and the increasing number of infections and
deaths, most Muslim countries have suspended congregational prayers on Fridays,
including Turkey and Lebanon, Iraq and Egypt, Jordan and Malaysia. Saudi Arabia
and several other states have declared fatwas to this effect, no prayers are being held
in Makkah and Madina, and Saudi Arabia is dissuading Muslims from making Haj
arrangements. These are extreme measures, but the danger to humanity is also
extreme.

Should Muslims disobey orders from the authorities?

It is understandable that many Muslims will feel an emotional pinch on being
deprived of collective prayer; many students of religious learning will be concerned
over the distancing they must practise from their teachers. Should Muslims disobey
orders from the authorities and continue to gather in large numbers for Friday and
funeral prayers? After all, if one is to contract the illness, she or he will do so as per
God’s will. And who can question His will?

This is the sentiment of many Muslims, including many clerics, who seem to have
ignored the writ of the government in Pakistan. Hundreds of cases in Punjab have
been traced to the holding of religious gatherings, including spreading it to Gaza, and
mosques up until recently were full of worshippers sitting in close proximity to one
another.

These violations are contrary to what we can understand from Islamic teachings. We
find examples of the Prophet (PBUH) excusing sick persons from attending Friday
prayers (Al-Sunna al-Saghir: 241). In times of plague, he advised people to neither
travel to nor from the infected place (Sahih Bukhari: 5730).
During his time, health experts who could provide detailed information about the
spread of infectious diseases did not exist. He gave overall advice, taking guidance
from the Quran that places human life and its protection as the ultimate responsibility
of human beings. Our lives and bodies belong to God and we must do what we can to
protect ourselves and others from potential harm. A primary principle is that the
possibility of harm takes precedence over potential benefit (2:219). Fear of potential
harm and the extent of the ability to deal with it are determinant factors in the rules of
fiqh.

The Prophet also asked people to make efforts for protection as best as they could: the
rest would be up to God. A famous hadith calls for tethering the camel, not leaving its
protection to God.

The Quran reminds human souls of the time before existence, when all had witnessed
to being His servants. Islam’s core is to make humans aware of this meeting and our
return to Him, to connect us with God and with each other. We can contribute to this
by avoiding the possibility of harm and supporting each other during times of
hardship. Refusing to stay away from gatherings is a deliberate denial of the sanctity
of life and health, and certain clerics are doing a disservice to themselves and others if
they insist on congregations.

The Muslim response to this global danger must be highlighted by all-out and
collective action to serving those who may be less fortunate in terms of access to food
and other essentials. It may not be enough to dole out charity. We need to share what
we have with others who depend on daily earnings, reaching out to them individually
and in small groups so as not to violate the idea of physical distancing. This is a
challenge also to our religious clerics to carry out their duty, and call people to show
compassion and love, instead of engaging in unnecessary debates that encourage
people to ignore health warnings.

The writer is a freelance contributor with an interest in religion.

 EXPRESS PRIBUNE
Hajj pilgrimage

In view of concerns for the health of pilgrims, the Saudi government has asked
intending Hajj pilgrims to defer pilgrimage plans till the coronavirus pandemic
situation improves. It has asked governments across the world to track the
pandemic before entering into contract with Hajj travel operators. Riyadh’s
advice on this year’s Hajj pilgrimage is in line with religious injunctions. Islam
enjoins upon its followers not to intentionally put life in danger in such
situations as the one caused by highly contagious pandemics like the present
one.

The entire humanity is facing a dangerous situation. Given the highly

infectious nature of coronavirus and the fact that there is no cure for Covid-19,
the best option to protect from the virus is to practise social distancing. So it
becomes necessary not to assemble at one place in large numbers. The Saudi
government, like governments elsewhere, too is taking all steps in this
direction. It has earlier banned Umrah pilgrimage, imposed lockdown in its big
cities and stopped inbound and outbound commercial flights. These measures
are in accordance with religious injunctions, so they have got the full backing
of religious scholars. Last week Al Azhar University in Cairo, Egypt issued a
fatwa asking the faithful not to congregate in large numbers. Since the learned
Ulema of Al Azhar, a highly-regarded centre of Islamic scholarship and
learning, have issued the decree, people are following it. One should not doubt
the authenticity of the decree issued by the learned scholars of Al Azhar.

After the spread of coronavirus picked up pace in the third week of March, we
see streets and roads in cities across the world deserted. Now more than one
third of the world is in lockdown. In Saudi Arabia, 1,563 people have been
infected and 10 have died from the virus. There is an Arabic proverb: He who
has health, has hope; and he who has hope, has everything.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 3rd, 2020.

Economic analysis

The Finance Ministry had little reassurance to offer as regards the fate of the
economy amid the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic. Independent assessments,
however, are bleak. An analysis by former finance minister Dr Hafiz Pasha
and former State Bank of Pakistan governor Shahid Kardar has suggested that
the national output would see losses of anywhere between Rs891 billion and
Rs1.6 trillion in the fourth fiscal quarter alone. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
was initially projected to grow by 3% in the current fiscal year, but the
coronavirus outbreak has made even that modest target look unachievable.

Domestic production and exports are both expected to suffer due to the decline
in global demand, according to the ministry.

The best-case scenario for the fourth quarter, according to the assessment by
Pasha and Kardar, would be a 4.6% decline in GDP or Rs891 million, while
the worst-case scenario could see a contraction of 9.5% or Rs1.6 trillion. The
unemployed population, they suggest, will rise by around 3.1 million people
on the lower estimate and over five million in the case of the second scenario.
This unemployment would be attributable to job losses caused by the
economic slowdown and would take quite some time to address. Temporary
unemployment would be even higher, as much as 10.5 million people while
anywhere from nine million to 15 million people will crop below the poverty
line.

The two renowned economists have also suggested that inflation will float
between 9.6% and 16.1%; tax collection will be significantly lower; and
although debt servicing costs will decrease, remittances will also fall due to the
global economic slowdown. The falling price of oil may be one of the few
silver linings though. Imports may rise due to falling international prices, but
that is up in the air due to global supply shocks. And despite the prospect of
incoming financial aid, they have warned that the balance of payments
situation was still likely to come under stress because of significant declines in
foreign direct investment and the continuing exit of existing short-term
investments.

All in all, top minds clearly feel that the worse is yet to come.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 3rd, 2020.

The future of Afghanistan

Afghan refugees are seen at UNHCR’s Voluntary Repatriation Centre in Peshawar. PHOTO: REUTERS

While the world is paralysed by the Covid-19 virus, the peace process in
Afghanistan still seems to be inching forward. A three-member Taliban team
arrived in Kabul this past week to monitor the release of their prisoners by the
Afghan government, which was an important part of implementing the recent
peace deal between the Taliban and the US.

Keeping the Afghan peace deal on track has been complicated by the internal
political turmoil and the ongoing rivalry between Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah
Abdullah. The Taliban’s peace deal which would allow the US to eventually
withdrawal its 13,000 soldiers from Afghanistan is contingent upon Taliban
guarantees to fight militant groups with global ambitions, like the IS, as well
as negotiating with the Afghan government.

The ongoing discord between Ghani and Abdullah prompted Washington to

threaten cutting $1 billion in assistance to Afghanistan and increasing financial
penalties in the next year. This threat has worked for now, but the challenge of
stabilising the country is far from over.

Developing an intra-Afghan compromise is a necessary step for ending the

relentless violence in the country. However, there are many complicated issues
which make peace-building a complicated process. An intra-Afghan settlement
requires not just a compromise between the two major political factions in the
Afghan government and the Taliban but also amongst several regional actors.
Besides Pakistan, Iran, Russia, China, and India are also major regional actors
with a vested interest in what happens in Afghanistan.

The academic, Hassan Abbas, writing for the Center for Global Policy, makes
a few good points which deserve the attention of all stakeholders working on
this issue. He points out that while Pakistan enjoys influence over the old
guard within the Afghan Taliban (Mullah Baradar, the Haqqanis and Mullah
Haibatullah), the Taliban are no longer a homogenous group. Today they
include a range of autonomous field commanders, aligned with drug
smuggling networks, and a new generation of insurgents inspired by a variety
of local interests. Moreover, the creation of the Qatar shura has enabled
another powerbroker to now compete with Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey, the
UAE and Pakistan, to nurture and fund its own Taliban factions.

Pakistan needs the Taliban to prevent Indian influence in Afghanistan, but this
can only happen if the Taliban factions which Pakistan yields influence over
can exert significant control over a new government as well as Afghan foreign
policymaking. Yet, anti-Taliban personnel currently dominate the civil
bureaucracy and military in Afghanistan, and they will resist a Taliban
takeover, which could further paralyse governance and peace building.
Conversely, the Taliban’s political dominance of Afghanistan is not only
unlikely, it would not be an entirely optimal outcome for Pakistan either, as it
would complicate Pakistan’s internal political landscape with religious parties
gaining momentum and pushing Pakistan toward further conservatism and
extremism.

As things stand, the people of Afghanistan are craving peace, but competing
Taliban factions are vying for as much power as they can get alongside the
political elites, who are struggling against each other, while being weary of
sharing power with the Taliban. Intra-Afghan negotiations, which must
commence after the current prisoner exchange process is undertaken, will
probably be messy and time consuming.

The negotiations will need credible mediators who can put aside their own
vested interests. It is worth recognising for all concerned stakeholders that no
single country or group can control or direct the course of future events in
Afghanistan. Punitive financial action by the US to make Kabul fall in line
may have helped chide the Afghan political factions to cooperate with the
Taliban for the time being. Sustaining the peace process will, however, require
collective regional action, and sustained international support, as well as
compromises by varied local political actors and factions within the Taliban.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 3rd, 2020.

World Autism Awareness Day

PHOTO: REUTERS

World Autism Awareness Day (WAAD), falling on April 2 i.e. today, is

recognised by the United Nations for creating awareness and acceptance for
people on the spectrum. The Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a neuro
developmental condition that displays impairment of speech and social
interaction restricting it to repetitive behaviours. Life on the spectrum is not
easy for people living with it and for their families. This day, therefore, marks
the importance of making the world more inclusive for them through the
provision of services via state and non-state actors, and precisely the role that
the community can play in improving the lives of people on the ASD. The
term spectrum, however, refers to the variation in range of symptoms and
severity. In some cases, the signs of autism surface during infancy, where
children have limited eye contact, no response to their name, and an air of
indifference to the people around them. They are lost in their own world. Other
children, however, apparently reach their milestones just like neurotypical
(NT) children, and then regress in behaviours in later stages as aggressive or
their speech is lost compared to the rate at which they acquired it initially
(during the first 18 to 24 months of life), and their comprehension and
executive skills are affected. Other than speech and behaviour their ability to
do everyday chores may also get affected and upset their independence as
individuals.

Autism, however, is different from other physical or mental disabilities as it is

more of a personality condition. Nonetheless, the required support, facilities,
guidance and acceptability in family and institutions can bring positive change
in individuals on the spectrum. WAAD was first observed globally in 2008 on
April 2 by the UN, and continues to be celebrated every year with its theme.
The theme for the year 2020 is “Transition to Adulthood”. Even though there
is a remarkable improvement in the provision of services and centres for
autistic individuals, a lot still needs to be done for children on the spectrum in
terms of transitioning to the adult age’s issues and needs. Their ‘different’
neural wiring makes them appear more challenging, both inside and outside
the home. Therefore, the support and facilities from the community and the
state together, can make life of autistic people functional. Autism might not be
curable, yet if properly intervened and helped with, can make an individual a
functional and independent member of the society.

The 2020 UN observance of April 2 brings attention to challenges being faced

by individuals in the transition to adulthood, from participation in youth
culture, community, self-reliance, to access to secondary and post-secondary
education, thus paving the way towards employment and independent
individuals of a society. Pakistan, like other developed countries ought to
strategise inclusive education by training teachers to be “shadow teachers” for
at least high functioning autistic children in mainstream schools. This one step
might help restore the confidence of autistic children and give them an “equal”
opportunity to reduce chances of poverty in the coming decades. Some private
schools have already started this, but the practice is very expensive and beyond
the reach of many families. We need more social policies to focus on children
and their health and education, including of those with disabilities. It will help
realise the 2030 SDGs by making children both, beneficiaries and agents of
change. Investment in the development of children both neurotypical, and
those that are differently abled, is essential to meet the development global
indicators and reduce inequities that lead to permanent poverty. People with
disabilities are equal citizens and are eligible to basic human rights. Therefore,
more practical efforts are needed for autism (along with other disabilities) as
mandated by the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities
(CRPD).

Published in The Express Tribune, April 2nd, 2020.