SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.0304872179
R Square 0.0009294705
Adjusted R Square -0.0108243
Standard Error 314.60373853
Observations 87

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 7826.83401982 7826.834 0.079078 0.779233533
Residual 85 8412918.54529 98975.51
Total 86 8420745.37931

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Intercept 1487.105854 68.0438767749 21.8551 1.219E-36 1351.8163976 1622.395 1351.816
S.No 0.37768827 1.34308752167 0.281209 0.779234 -2.2927295462 3.048106 -2.29273
Upper 95.0%
1622.395
3.048106
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.915155
R Square 0.837509
Adjusted R Square 0.835598
Standard Error 126.8761
Observations 87

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 7052453 7052453.4307 438.10719065 2.714533E-35
Residual 85 1368292 16097.552337
Total 86 8420745

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Intercept 521.75 48.84698 10.681313604 2.207341E-17 424.62906722 618.8708 424.6291
TUESDAY BOOKINGS 0.695585 0.033232 20.931010264 2.714533E-35 0.6295103713 0.76166 0.62951
Upper 95.0%
618.8708
0.76166
 TUESDAY
S.No WEEK DOW INDICATOR1 DEMAND BOOKINGS PICKUP RATIO DOW INDEX
1 1 1 1,470 1,512 0.972 0.865
2 2 870 864 1.007 0.911
3 3 986 827 1.192 0.973
4 4 1,247 952 1.310 1.013
5 5 1,109 740 1.499 1.068
6 6 1,197 908 1.318 1.123
7 7 1,500 1,311 1.144 1.049
8 2 1 1,854 2,034 0.912 0.865
9 2 1,489 1,584 0.940 0.911
10 3 1,792 1,682 1.065 0.973
11 4 1,708 1,684 1.014 1.013
12 5 1,787 1,600 1.117 1.068
13 6 1,314 1,077 1.220 1.123
14 7 1,136 956 1.188 1.049
15 3 1 1,537 1,455 1.056 0.865
16 2 1,132 1,001 1.131 0.911
17 3 1,368 1,131 1.210 0.973
18 4 1,488 1,151 1.293 1.013
19 5 1,392 942 1.478 1.068
20 6 1,321 884 1.494 1.123
21 7 1,469 1,315 1.117 1.049
22 4 1 1,795 1,885 0.952 0.865
23 2 1,780 1,963 0.907 0.911
24 3 1,841 2,006 0.918 0.973
25 4 1,774 1,855 0.956 1.013
26 5 1,835 1,962 0.935 1.068
27 6 1,847 2,019 0.915 1.123
28 7 1,833 2,052 0.893 1.049
29 5 1 1,847 2,018 0.915 0.865
30 2 1,680 1,706 0.985 0.911
31 3 1,680 1,874 0.896 0.973
32 4 1,798 1,827 0.984 1.013
33 5 1,843 1,734 1.063 1.068
34 6 1,322 1,124 1.176 1.123
35 7 1,022 803 1.273 1.049
36 6 1 1,298 1,356 0.957 0.865
37 2 956 848 1.127 0.911
38 3 1,236 966 1.280 0.973
39 4 1,306 909 1.437 1.013
40 5 1,176 798 1.474 1.068
41 6 1,134 731 1.551 1.123
42 7 1,164 869 1.339 1.049
43 7 1 1,486 1,372 1.083 0.865
44 2 870 760 1.145 0.911
45 3 1,392 1,144 1.217 0.973
46 4 1,747 1,450 1.205 1.013
47 5 1,861 1,739 1.070 1.068
48 6 1,797 1,491 1.205 1.123
49 7 1,719 1,477 1.164 1.049
50 8 1 1,729 1,801 0.960 0.865
51 2 1,251 1,096 1.141 0.911
52 3 1,682 1,605 1.048 0.973
53 4 1,795 1,788 1.004 1.013
54 5 1,814 1,836 0.988 1.068
55 6 1,772 1,626 1.090 1.123
56 7 1,885 1,479 1.275 1.049
57 9 1 1,924 2,105 0.914 0.865
58 2 1,591 1,720 0.925 0.911
59 3 1,727 1,554 1.111 0.973
60 4 1,772 1,561 1.135 1.013
61 5 1,748 1,563 1.118 1.068
62 6 1,748 1,594 1.097 1.123
63 7 1,643 1,708 0.962 1.049
64 10 1 1,765 2,086 0.846 0.865
65 2 1,748 1,816 0.963 0.911
66 3 1,795 1,668 1.076 0.973
67 4 1,672 1,461 1.144 1.013
68 5 1,345 1,027 1.310 1.068
69 6 1,273 1,042 1.222 1.123
70 7 1,600 1,442 1.110 1.049
71 11 1 1,773 1,941 0.913 0.865
72 2 1,292 1,401 0.922 0.911
73 3 1,753 1,807 0.970 0.973
74 4 1,805 1,681 1.074 1.013
75 5 1,601 1,413 1.133 1.068
76 6 722 599 1.205 1.123
77 7 889 831 1.070 1.049
78 12 1 1,058 1,123 0.942 0.865
79 2 887 952 0.932 0.911
80 3 1,676 1,750 0.958 0.973
81 4 1,775 1,777 0.999 1.013
82 5 1,759 1,748 1.006 1.068
83 6 1,093 932 1.173 1.123
84 7 1,217 969 1.256 1.049
85 13 1 1,542 1,562 0.987 0.865
86 2 988 1,004 0.984 0.911
87 3 1,510 1,404 1.075 0.973
88 4 1,657
89 5 1,643
90 6 1,124
91 7 1,074
92 14 1 1,839
93 2 1,862
94 3 1,886
95 4 1,696
96 5 1,002
97 6 794
98 7 1,106

1
DOW Indicator: DOW Date of the Week Indicator
1 = Saturday
2 = Sunday
3 = Monday
4 = Tuesday
5 = Wednesday
6 = Thursday
7 = Friday
 Date
5/23/1987
5/24/1987
5/25/1987
5/26/1987
5/27/1987
5/28/1987
5/29/1987
5/30/1987
5/31/1987
6/1/1987
6/2/1987
6/3/1987
6/4/1987
6/5/1987
6/6/1987
6/7/1987
6/8/1987
6/9/1987
6/10/1987
6/11/1987
6/12/1987
6/13/1987
6/14/1987
6/15/1987
6/16/1987
6/17/1987
6/18/1987
6/19/1987
6/20/1987
6/21/1987
6/22/1987
6/23/1987
6/24/1987
6/25/1987
6/26/1987
6/27/1987
6/28/1987
6/29/1987
6/30/1987
7/1/1987
7/2/1987
7/3/1987
7/4/1987
7/5/1987
7/6/1987
 7/7/1987
7/8/1987
7/9/1987
7/10/1987
7/11/1987
7/12/1987
7/13/1987
7/14/1987
7/15/1987
7/16/1987
7/17/1987
7/18/1987
7/19/1987
7/20/1987
7/21/1987
7/22/1987
7/23/1987
7/24/1987
7/25/1987
7/26/1987
7/27/1987
7/28/1987
7/29/1987
7/30/1987
7/31/1987
8/1/1987
8/2/1987
8/3/1987
8/4/1987
8/5/1987
8/6/1987
8/7/1987
8/8/1987
8/9/1987
8/10/1987
8/11/1987
8/12/1987
8/13/1987
8/14/1987
8/15/1987
8/16/1987
8/17/1987
8/18/1987
8/19/1987
8/20/1987
8/21/1987
8/22/1987
8/23/1987
8/24/1987
8/25/1987
8/26/1987
8/27/1987
8/28/1987
 TUESDAY Forecasted Forecasted Squared Percentage
DEMAND BOOKINGS PICKUP RATIO PR Demand Error Error error
1,470 1,512 0.972
870 864 1.007 0.972 840.000 30 900 0.03448276
986 827 1.192 1.007 832.743 153.2569 23487.69 0.15543301
1,247 952 1.310 1.192 1,135.033 111.9674 12536.69 0.08978938
1,109 740 1.499 1.310 969.307 139.6933 19514.21 0.12596328
1,197 908 1.318 1.499 1,360.773 163.773 26821.59 0.13681953
1,500 1,311 1.144 1.318 1,728.268 228.2676 52106.11 0.15217841
1,854 2,034 0.912 1.144 2,327.231 473.2311 223947.7 0.25524872
1,489 1,584 0.940 0.912 1,443.823 45.17699 2040.961 0.03034049
1,792 1,682 1.065 0.940 1,581.122 210.8775 44469.33 0.11767719
1,708 1,684 1.014 1.065 1,794.131 86.1308 7418.514 0.05042787
1,787 1,600 1.117 1.014 1,622.803 164.1971 26960.7 0.09188425
1,314 1,077 1.220 1.117 1,202.874 111.1256 12348.9 0.08457049
1,136 956 1.188 1.220 1,166.373 30.37326 922.5349 0.02673702
1,537 1,455 1.056 1.188 1,728.954 191.954 36846.33 0.12488873
1,132 1,001 1.131 1.056 1,057.414 74.58625 5563.109 0.06588892
1,368 1,131 1.210 1.131 1,279.013 88.98701 7918.688 0.06504899
1,488 1,151 1.293 1.210 1,392.191 95.80902 9179.368 0.06438778
1,392 942 1.478 1.293 1,217.807 174.1929 30343.16 0.12513856
1,321 884 1.494 1.478 1,306.293 14.70701 216.296 0.01113324
1,469 1,315 1.117 1.494 1,965.062 496.0622 246077.7 0.33768701
1,795 1,885 0.952 1.117 2,105.753 310.7529 96567.33 0.17312137
1,780 1,963 0.907 0.952 1,869.276 89.27586 7970.18 0.05015498
1,841 2,006 0.918 0.907 1,818.991 22.00866 484.3811 0.01195473
1,774 1,855 0.956 0.918 1,702.420 71.57976 5123.662 0.04034936
1,835 1,962 0.935 0.956 1,876.328 41.32776 1707.984 0.02252194
1,847 2,019 0.915 0.935 1,888.310 41.3104 1706.549 0.02236621
1,833 2,052 0.893 0.915 1,877.189 44.18871 1952.642 0.02410731
1,847 2,018 0.915 0.893 1,802.629 44.37135 1968.816 0.02402347
1,680 1,706 0.985 0.915 1,561.438 118.5619 14056.93 0.07057258
1,680 1,874 0.896 0.985 1,845.440 165.4396 27370.27 0.09847597
1,798 1,827 0.984 0.896 1,637.866 160.1345 25643.05 0.08906255
1,843 1,734 1.063 0.984 1,706.476 136.5238 18638.75 0.07407694
1,322 1,124 1.176 1.063 1,194.655 127.3449 16216.72 0.09632743
1,022 803 1.273 1.176 944.454 77.54626 6013.423 0.07587697
1,298 1,356 0.957 1.273 1,725.818 427.8182 183028.4 0.32959798
956 848 1.127 0.957 811.729 144.2714 20814.23 0.15091149
1,236 966 1.280 1.127 1,089.028 146.9717 21600.68 0.11890914
1,306 909 1.437 1.280 1,163.068 142.9317 20429.46 0.10944233
1,176 798 1.474 1.437 1,146.521 29.47855 868.9848 0.02506679
1,134 731 1.551 1.474 1,077.263 56.73684 3219.069 0.05003249
1,164 869 1.339 1.551 1,348.079 184.0793 33885.2 0.15814377
1,486 1,372 1.083 1.339 1,837.754 351.7537 123730.7 0.2367118
870 760 1.145 1.083 823.149 46.85131 2195.045 0.05385208
1,392 1,144 1.217 1.145 1,309.579 82.42105 6793.23 0.05921053
1,747 1,450 1.205 1.217 1,764.336 17.33566 300.5253 0.0099231
1,861 1,739 1.070 1.205 2,095.195 234.1952 54847.38 0.12584373
1,797 1,491 1.205 1.070 1,595.601 201.3985 40561.36 0.11207485
1,719 1,477 1.164 1.205 1,780.127 61.12676 3736.481 0.03555949
1,729 1,801 0.960 1.164 2,096.086 367.086 134752.1 0.21231115
1,251 1,096 1.141 0.960 1,052.184 198.8157 39527.67 0.15892539
1,682 1,605 1.048 1.141 1,831.984 149.9845 22495.35 0.08917033
1,795 1,788 1.004 1.048 1,873.779 78.77944 6206.2 0.04388827
1,814 1,836 0.988 1.004 1,843.188 29.18792 851.9346 0.01609036
1,772 1,626 1.090 0.988 1,606.516 165.4837 27384.84 0.09338807
1,885 1,479 1.275 1.090 1,611.801 273.1993 74637.84 0.1449333
1,924 2,105 0.914 1.275 2,682.843 758.8431 575842.9 0.39440911
1,591 1,720 0.925 0.914 1,572.105 18.89549 357.0394 0.01187648
1,727 1,554 1.111 0.925 1,437.450 289.55 83839.2 0.16766068
1,772 1,561 1.135 1.111 1,734.779 37.22072 1385.382 0.02100492
1,748 1,563 1.118 1.135 1,774.270 26.27034 690.1307 0.0150288
1,748 1,594 1.097 1.118 1,782.669 34.66923 1201.955 0.01983365
1,643 1,708 0.962 1.097 1,873.014 230.0138 52906.35 0.13999623
1,765 2,086 0.846 0.962 2,006.615 241.6148 58377.69 0.13689221
1,748 1,816 0.963 0.846 1,536.548 211.4516 44711.77 0.12096772
1,795 1,668 1.076 0.963 1,605.542 189.4581 35894.39 0.10554772
1,672 1,461 1.144 1.076 1,572.239 99.76079 9952.215 0.05966555
1,345 1,027 1.310 1.144 1,175.321 169.679 28790.96 0.12615538
1,273 1,042 1.222 1.310 1,364.645 91.6446 8398.732 0.07199104
1,600 1,442 1.110 1.222 1,761.676 161.6756 26139.01 0.10104726
1,773 1,941 0.913 1.110 2,153.675 380.6755 144913.8 0.21470697
1,292 1,401 0.922 0.913 1,279.739 12.26121 150.3372 0.0094901
1,753 1,807 0.970 0.922 1,666.413 86.58744 7497.384 0.04939386
1,805 1,681 1.074 0.970 1,630.765 174.2346 30357.71 0.09652889
1,601 1,413 1.133 1.074 1,517.231 83.76919 7017.276 0.05232304
722 599 1.205 1.133 678.697 43.3029 1875.141 0.05997632
889 831 1.070 1.205 1,001.639 112.6394 12687.63 0.12670349
1,058 1,123 0.942 1.070 1,201.380 143.3803 20557.9 0.1355201
887 952 0.932 0.942 896.898 9.897596 97.9624 0.01115851
1,676 1,750 0.958 0.932 1,630.515 45.48529 2068.912 0.0271392
1,775 1,777 0.999 0.958 1,701.858 73.14171 5349.71 0.0412066
1,759 1,748 1.006 0.999 1,746.033 12.96736 168.1524 0.00737201
1,093 932 1.173 1.006 937.865 155.135 24066.87 0.14193505
1,217 969 1.256 1.173 1,136.392 80.60837 6497.709 0.06623531
1,542 1,562 0.987 1.256 1,961.769 419.7688 176205.9 0.27222363
988 1,004 0.984 0.987 991.145 3.144686 9.889052 0.00318288
1,510 1,404 1.075 0.984 1,381.625 128.3745 16480.01 0.08501623
1,657
1,643
1,124
1,074
1,839
1,862
1,886
1,696
1,002
794
1,106
MAD 144.7763
MSE 37458.1
MAPE 9.587%
S.No WEEK DOW INDICATOR1 DEMAND TUESDAY BOOKINGS PICKUP RATIO DOW INDEX
1 1 1 1470 1512 0.97222222222 0.8647725416
8 2 1 1854 2034 0.91150442478 0.8647725416
15 3 1 1537 1455 1.05635738832 0.8647725416
22 4 1 1795 1885 0.95225464191 0.8647725416
29 5 1 1847 2018 0.91526263627 0.8647725416
36 6 1 1298 1356 0.95722713864 0.8647725416
43 7 1 1486 1372 1.08309037901 0.8647725416
50 8 1 1729 1801 0.96002220988 0.8647725416
57 9 1 1924 2105 0.91401425178 0.8647725416
64 10 1 1765 2086 0.84611697028 0.8647725416
71 11 1 1773 1941 0.91344667697 0.8647725416
78 12 1 1058 1123 0.94211932324 0.8647725416
85 13 1 1542 1562 0.98719590269 0.8647725416
 Forecasted Squared Percentage
Forecasted PR Demand Error Error error

0.9722222222 1977.5 123.5 15252.25 0.066612729

0.9115044248 1326.2389381 210.7611 44420.23 0.137124959
1.0563573883 1991.233677 196.2337 38507.66 0.109322383
0.9522546419 1921.6498674 74.64987 5572.603 0.04041682
0.9152626363 1241.0961348 56.90387 3238.05 0.04383965
0.9572271386 1313.3156342 172.6844 29819.89 0.116207514
1.083090379 1950.6457726 221.6458 49126.85 0.128193044
0.9600222099 2020.8467518 96.84675 9379.293 0.05033615
0.9140142518 1906.6337292 141.6337 20060.11 0.080245739
0.8461169703 1642.3130393 130.687 17079.08 0.07370951
0.913446677 1025.8006182 32.19938 1036.8 0.030434198
0.9421193232 1471.5903829 70.40962 4957.514 0.04566123

MAD 127.3463
MSE 19870.86
MAPE 7.684%
 DOW TUESDAY PICKUP DOW Forecasted Forecasted
S.No WEEK INDICATOR1 DEMAND BOOKINGS RATIO INDEX PR Demand
1 1 1 1470 1512 0.972222 0.864773
8 2 1 1854 2034 0.911504 0.864773
15 3 1 1537 1455 1.056357 0.864773
22 4 1 1795 1885 0.952255 0.864773 0.980028012 1847.3528022
29 5 1 1847 2018 0.915263 0.864773 0.973372152 1964.2650021
36 6 1 1298 1356 0.957227 0.864773 0.974624889 1321.5913493
43 7 1 1486 1372 1.08309 0.864773 0.941581472 1291.84978
50 8 1 1729 1801 0.960022 0.864773 0.985193385 1774.3332857
57 9 1 1924 2105 0.914014 0.864773 1.000113243 2105.2383755
64 10 1 1765 2086 0.846117 0.864773 0.985708947 2056.1888632
71 11 1 1773 1941 0.913447 0.864773 0.906717811 1759.9392705
78 12 1 1058 1123 0.942119 0.864773 0.891192633 1000.8093269
85 13 1 1542 1562 0.987196 0.864773 0.90056099 1406.6762666
Percentage Forecasted Forecasted Percentage Forecasted Forecasted
error PR Demand error PR Demand

0.02916591
0.06348944 0.97308467 1963.684863
0.01817515 0.96152026 1303.821476 0.004484959 0.95884477 1300.193512
0.13065291 0.95852125 1315.091149 0.115012685 0.97027545 1331.217919
0.02621937 0.99283844 1788.102025 0.034182779 0.9769587 1759.502617
0.09419874 0.9735714 2049.367799 0.065159979 0.97890059 2060.585744
0.16497953 0.96592332 2014.916052 0.141595497 0.97858849 2041.3356
0.00736646 0.95209419 1848.014823 0.042309545 0.95081095 1845.524059
0.05405546 0.9433381 1059.368684 0.001293652 0.90840003 1020.133231
0.08775858 0.91514389 1429.454751 0.072986543 0.90392431 1411.929765

MAPE (3) 6.761%

MAPE (4) 6.392%
MAPE (5) 5.963%
Percentage
error

0.06317535
0.00168992
0.10416022
0.01764177
0.07099051
0.15656408
0.04090471
0.0357909
0.08435164
 DOW TUESDAY PICKUP DOW Forecasted Forecasted
S.No WEEK INDICATOR1 DEMAND BOOKINGS RATIO INDEX PR Demand
1 1 1 1470 1512 0.972222 0.864773
8 2 1 1854 2034 0.911504 0.864773
15 3 1 1537 1455 1.056357 0.864773
22 4 1 1795 1885 0.952255 0.864773 1.031333499 1944.06364
29 5 1 1847 2018 0.915263 0.864773 0.940134514 1897.19145
36 6 1 1298 1356 0.957227 0.864773 0.957227723 1298.00079
43 7 1 1486 1372 1.08309 0.864773 0.955748195 1311.28652
50 8 1 1729 1801 0.960022 0.864773 1.033174237 1860.7468
57 9 1 1924 2105 0.914014 0.864773 0.959190886 2019.09682
64 10 1 1765 2086 0.846117 0.864773 0.964301695 2011.53334
71 11 1 1773 1941 0.913447 0.864773 0.87999522 1708.07072
78 12 1 1058 1123 0.942119 0.864773 0.913615488 1025.99019
85 13 1 1542 1562 0.987196 0.864773 0.913565837 1426.98984
Percentage
error
W1 0.297425
W2 0
W3 0.702575
0.083043813
0.02717458 Total weights 1
6.10117E-07
0.117572999
0.076198265
0.049426619
0.139678943
0.036621138
0.030255016
0.07458506
MAPE (3) 6.346%
 DOW TUESDAY PICKUP Forecasted Forecasted Percentage
S.No WEEK INDICATOR1 DEMAND BOOKINGS RATIO PR Demand error
1 1 1 1470 1512 0.972222
8 2 1 1854 2034 0.911504 0.97222222 1977.5 0.066612729
15 3 1 1537 1455 1.056357 0.97114284 1413.01283 0.080668293
22 4 1 1795 1885 0.952255 0.9726577 1833.45977 0.021426054
29 5 1 1847 2018 0.915263 0.972295 1962.0913 0.062312562
36 6 1 1298 1356 0.957227 0.97128113 1317.05721 0.014681983
43 7 1 1486 1372 1.08309 0.97103129 1332.25493 0.103462359
50 8 1 1729 1801 0.960022 0.97302337 1752.41509 0.01354256
57 9 1 1924 2105 0.914014 0.97279225 2047.72768 0.064307526
64 10 1 1765 2086 0.846117 0.97174735 2027.06497 0.148478738
71 11 1 1773 1941 0.913447 0.96951402 1881.82671 0.061379982
78 12 1 1058 1123 0.942119 0.96851731 1087.64494 0.028019789
85 13 1 1542 1562 0.987196 0.96804803 1512.09102 0.019396223
 a 0.017777

MAPE (3) 5.702%