IMPACT OF COVID-19

ON INDIAN ECONOMY

Quarterly GDP Growth in India, year-over-year

-16.6% 6.67% 90%

Overall Unemployment Projected Public
exports rate debt ratio

Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have withdrawn close to USD 571.4

million. While lower oil prices will shrink the current account deficit,
reverse capital flows will expand it. Rupee is continuously
depreciating.

The average household incomes have fallen down by 43.7%

while the per capita income is expected to drop by 5.4% in
FY 21

The country’s retail inflation The index of industrial

spiked to 6.93 per cent in the production (IIP) declined by
month of July mainly on 10.4 per cent to 118.1 in the
account of higher food prices. month of July.

WITH OVER 7 MILLION CASES INDIA IS SECOND ONLY TO

THE US IN TOTAL COVID CASE COUNT WHILE IT HAS ONE
OF THE HIGHEST RECOVERY RATE AT 90%

The dawn of COVID-19 has sent markets around

the world crashing to levels not witnessed since
the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. BSE Sensex and
Nifty 50 fell by 38% and total market cap lost a
staggering 27.31% from the start of the year.
 IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON
VARIOUS INDUSTRIES
Quarterly Estimates of Gross Value Added at Basic Price in Q1
(Percentage change over the previous year)

Aviation Sector Automobile Industry

$3.3-$3.6 Overall loss from $2 Billion Monthly Revenue Loss

Billion April-June 2020
Estimated Daily
Estimated Daily ₹2300 Cr.
₹75-₹90 Cr. Losses Production Loss
(per day of closure)

30% ₹ 3,70,000 4,55,371

Shrink in Crore of Unsold Units
Domestic Unsold in Q1 2020 in
Market Size Inventory top 7 cities

Textile Industry Construction & Real Estate

Tourism & Hospitality Sector

$4.7 Billion Projected $65.57 Billion Loss $19.31 Billion Projected

Losses To Tour To Revenue Losses
Operators Value Chain To Hospitality Sector

30% Estimated Occupancy in Hotels till start of 2021

70% Estimated Job Loss in the Hospitality Industry

4.1 Million Estimated Job Loss Amongst Youth

Estimated Job Loss Amongst Salaried
21 Million Employees from Apr-Aug 2020
 THE ROAD AHEAD

COVID-19 took a toll on GST collections emptying government coffers

and increasing central and state borrowing. The central government
has borrowed 1.1 Lakh crore to fund GST shortfall

-10.3% -9.6% 150 Mn

Contraction in Contraction in People
Indian GDP Global GDP pushed back
into poverty

The World Economic Outlook projects contraction at 4.4% in 2020.

It has warned that the economic rebound due next year will wane in
2022—for the first time since the pandemic began.

The 2020-21 Real GDP

growth for India is forecast
in the range of (-) 10.3%.
OECD in its September 2020
Interim Economic Outlook
has projected a contraction
of (-) 10.3% in FY21 for
India, 1.9% for China, (-)
5.8% for Brazil.

Key indicators to focus on going forward:

Business Activity
Index of Industrial Production rising to 49.8 in
September from 41.8 in August making it a
19%
19% increase.

Export
Exports returned to positive
6% territory with shipments rising
6% in September from a year earlier

Consumer Activity
Passenger vehicle sales rose 26.5% in Sep Y-o-Y 26.5%
Retail sales were 70% below Y-o-Y level

Industrial Activity
Industrial production fell 8% in

8% August from a year earlier. Capital

goods output dropped 15.8% from a
year earlier.