1 – 2 – 3 RULE OF TROPICAL

CYCLONE AVOIDANCE
1 – 2 – 3 RULE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE AVOIDANCE

(Content and graph from NOAA, provided here by

WeatherCarib.com)

For vessels at sea, avoiding the 34 KT wind field of a tropical cyclone

is paramount. Any ship in the vicinity of a tropical cyclone should
make every effort to remain clear of the maximum radius of analyzed
or forecast 34 KT winds associated with the tropical cyclone.
Knowing that the area of 34 KT around tropical cyclones is rarely
symmetric but instead varies within semi-circles or quadrants is
important. Understanding that each tropical storm or hurricane has
it own unique 34 KT wind field are necessary factors to account for
when attempting to remain clear of this dangerous area around a
tropical cyclone. NHC forecasts attempt to define the structure of
this wind field and use of the latest TCM in determining the
maximum radius of 34 KT winds is necessary when trying to avoid
this dangerous threshold.

1. Plot the current and forecast tropical cyclone positions taken

from the latest TCM.

2. Find the maximum radius of 34 KT winds at the current and each

forecast time period of the TCM out to 72 hours.
For example, the radii of 34 KT winds given for the 24 hour forecast
position

in the latest TCM are:

34 KT...175NE 150SE 150SW 150NW

Therefore, the maximum radius of 34 KT winds associated with the

tropical

cyclone at its 24-hour forecast position is 175 NM.

3. Next apply the 1-2-3 rule to each of the radii at the 24, 48, and
72 hour forecast positions.

At the 24-hour forecast position (1 day): add 100 NM to the

maximum radius

of 34 KT winds found in the 24 hours forecast of step two.

>>> 175 NM (Forecast radius of 34 KT) + 100 NM = 275 NM

At the 48-hour forecast position (2 days): add 200 NM to the

maximum radius

of 34 KT winds found in the 48 hour forecast of step two.

At the 72-hour forecast position (3 days): add 300 NM to the

maximum radius

of 34 KT winds found in the 72 hour forecast of step two.

4. Now draw a circle around the 24, 48, and 72 hour forecast
positions of the tropical cyclone using the radii found in step 3.

5. Connect a line tangent to each circle constructed in step 4. The

area enclosed by these tangent lines is known as the danger area of
the tropical cyclone and must be avoided as a vessel attempts to
navigate in the vicinity of the tropical cyclone.

Note of caution. This rule establishes a minimum recommended

distance to maintain from a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Basin.
Larger buffer zones can and should be established in situations of
tropical cyclones with large forecast uncertainty, limited crew
experience, decreased vessel handling, or other factors as
determined by the vessel master. The 1-2-3 rule does not account
for sudden & rapid intensification of tropical cyclones that could
result in a rapid outward expansion of the 34 KT wind field. Also, the
1-2-3 rule does not account for the typical outward expansion of the
wind field as a system transitions from tropical cyclone to
extratropical gale or storm in the North Atlantic. Finally, mariners
should not equate the radius of 34 KT winds with the area of 12-foot
seas in the vicinity of a tropical cyclone. The 1-2-3 rule relies solely
on avoiding the radius of 34 KT winds in a tropical cyclone and does
not take sea heights into consideration. Vessels with lower sea
keeping limits should also make adjustments to the 1-2-3 rule in
order to minimize exposure to seas that will dangerously hamper
ship stability and maneuverability. The radius of current 12-foot
seas is issued in the TCM and can serve as a gauge for vessels with
lower sea keeping limits in order to remain clear of potentially
damaging higher seas. Further guidance on forecasted seas in
excess of 12 feet in the vicinity of any active tropical cyclone is
available in the Atlantic High Seas Forecasts issued by TPC and
MPC.