IU032

Urbanization & Climate Change

March 28, 2019

International School of Urban Science
University of Seoul
Group Discussions

• How could urbanization be related to climate change?

• Discuss possible effects of urbanization on climate change.
• Discuss various impacts of climate change on cities.
• Discuss why and how cities are vulnerable to the risks of climate change
State of the World’s Urbanization
• In 2010, more than half of the world’s population lived in cities
• By 2030, almost 5 billion of the world’s 8.3 billion people will live in cities
• 16 cities had populations of 1 million or more at the end of 19th century
but almost 400 cities had populations of 1 or more million at 2006. 75% of
them were in developing countries
• Cities occupy 2% of the earth surface but consume 75% of world output.
World Population Trend: Urban vs. Rural

Source: UN (2006)
City as Part of the Climate Problem?

• Cities have historically developed in locations that may be vulnerable to

change, including in coastal areas and on rivers
• Rapid urbanization is creating significant urban challenges that will be
exacerbated by climate change
• Cities represent concentrations of economic and social activities that
produce GHG emissions
• Cities and towns produce over 70% of global energy-related CO₂ emissions
• By 2030, over 80% of the increase in global annual energy demand above
2006 levels will come from cities in non-OECD countries
 City as Part of the Climate Solution?

• Municipal authorities have responsibility for many processes that shape

urban vulnerability and affect GHG emissions at the local level
• Municipalities have a democratic mandate from local populations to
address issues that affect the city
• Municipalities have a history of addressing issues of sustainable climate
development
• Municipalities can act as a ‘laboratory’ for testing innovative approaches
• Municipal authorities can act in partnership with private and civil society
sectors
• Cities represent high concentrations of private-sector actors with growing
commitment to act on climate change
• Cities provide arenas within which civil society is mobilizing to address
climate change
Influence of Urbanization on Climate

• High-level of energy consumption

• Concentration of economic activities
• Drivers of urban contributions
− Changes related to GHGs emission
− Land-use related change
Urban Impacts of Climate Change

• Sea-level rise on coastal cities

• Extreme events (wind storms, floods, heat extremes, droughts)
• Health
• Energy use
• Access to water
Sea-Level Rise

• Direct Impacts
− Flood & displacement of population
− Coastal flooding & storm surges
− Coastal erosion & loss of land
− Rising water table & drainage problems
− Increased salinity of coastal environment
− Economic & leisure activities
• Indirect Impacts
− Changing dynamics of ecosystems
− Changes to use of coastal zone
− Risks to marine economies
Extreme Events

• Direct Impacts
− Damage to infrastructure systems, property, livelihoods and life
from wind-storms, flood events, heatwaves and drought
• Indirect Impacts
− Risks to economic production chains
− Risks to urban food supplies
Health

• Direct Impacts
− Physiological effects of heatwaves and cold
− Changes in incidence of vector-borne diseases
− Physical- and mental-health impacts of extreme events
• Indirect Impacts
− Risks to wider systems of health care and support
Energy Use

• Direct Impacts
− Changes in winter and summer energy demand
− Increased use of air conditioning leading to brownouts
• Indirect Impacts
− Risks to hydro-power energy systems
− Increased loss of transmission as temperature increases reduce
energy supply
Water Availability

• Direct Impacts
− Reduced precipitation and groundwater recharging limits water
availability
− Retreat of glaciers reduces urban water supplies
− Increased demand for water as temperatures increase
− Reduction in water quality as river flow decreases
• Indirect Impacts
− Risks to economic production chains
− Risks to urban food supplies
Cities at Climate Risk

• Exacerbate existing risks such as coastal flooding and heatwaves

• Bring new challenges
• The implication of climate change will go beyond discrete impacts on
particular sectors and resources and are instead likely to cause
widespread disruption, conflict and geopolitical upheaval
• Understanding the nature and level of climate risk is very difficult at
the urban scale
• Climate change may lead to ‘tipping points’ in the climate system that
would create fundamental changes in current climate regimes within a
relatively short period of time
Cities in Relation to Current Climate hazards

Source: Sherbinin et al (2007)

Urban Climate Change Futures

Dystopian

Organized Emergent
irresponsibility catastrophe

Top-down Bottom-up

Climate Evolving
control resilience

Utopian
Climate-change Vulnerability

Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and

unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change including climate
variability and extremes. Vulnerability is function of the character,
magnitude and rate of climate change and variation to which a system
exposed, its sensitivity and its adaptive capacity. (IPCC, 2007)
Nature of Urban Climate Vulnerability

• Location (ex: coastal or riverside locations)

• Place (the ways in which the physical and economic development
of cities contributes to their exposure to climate risk, ex:
flooding/drought, urban heat island)
• Community (social process)
Cities as Vulnerable Locations

• Coastal zones are highly populated areas with large urban centers
− about 10% of the world’s population live in low elevation coastal
zones
− 13 out of the 20 most populated cities in the world are port cities
• Sea-level rise over the next 80 years is likely to be in the range of
0.2-0.6 m
• Trends in urbanization and economic growth  more people and
assets are likely to be found in locations that are vulnerable to the
combined impact of climate change and local subsidence
Source: Hanson el al. 2011
Cities as Vulnerable Places

• Climate impacts do not just happen to the city but are fundamentally
through it
• Several features of the urban landscape exacerbate the exposure of
urban places to climate risks
− Urban Heat Island
− Flooding and drought due to stormwater runoff
− Underground transportation system and flooding
• Proximity and interdependence of infrastructure systems within
urban areas
Cities as Vulnerable Communities

• Climate change poses significant risks to population and assets, that

nature and distribution of the impact are uneven.
− Degree of exposure
− Degree of sensitivity or suffering from exposure
− Capacity to adapt
Integrated Framework of Climate Change