Executive Summary

THE INDIAN COVID RESPONSE: A LESSON IN GAME THEORY WITH DYNAMIC STRATEGY

The Indian response to the Covid19 from day one has been Differential Game-Theoretic with
dynamic intervention strategies to control the spread and growth of this foreign virus by actively
screening tracking, contact-tracing followed by monitoring/testing and isolation/ quarantine as
applicable to all the inbound passengers at all ports of entry, from Day-1 starting Mid-January. Such
a Game-theoretic approach with right strategies is known to turn exponential growth curves to
polynomial and even linear ending up flat eventually. In fact, the Indian game-theoretic approach
should become the Global benchmark for future pandemic management even for local outbreaks by
sealing the epicentre (Red-Zone) while the rest of the country follows the Indian approach.

This is exactly the reason many standard western Models applied blindly and oblivious to the Indian
game-theoretic scenario and strategy were churning out numbers running into 10s -100s of Millions
infections-peak, given our 1.3 Billion population and scaring most Indians (which led me to start
making this Game Theoretic Model in March Beginning). The Game is between the GOI/states
Machinery on one side and the Delinquent/negligent elements amidst public on the other
(delinquency for jumping screening/isolation & negligence for lack of social distancing), and Not with
the NCOV virus whose time evolution differential equations are well-known given R0 etc.

The key advantage with this “Game-Theoretic Model with Dynamic Strategic Interventions
(GTM+DSI)”, is that not only can we make accurate projections for future time-evolution of the
infections, but we can also Quantitively Analyse and suggest Specific Strategic Advisories in terms of
very Specific Required future Action-Items, which will ensure that we achieve our desired infection
control and Lockdown exit targets with a very high probability. Our Key Findings are as follows:

• Minimum (1.5Million) by May-14, Preferable (2.25Million) & Ideal (3.5Milliom) PCR Testing
& isolation Targets have to be met by May14-21, with a significant Random Testing
component (up to 1/4th these numbers in a ratio of 8:2:1 across Red : Orange : Green
zones),to Flatten the CCT/infections Curve by May-24 and Open the Country in a safe data-
driven manner by June-Mid (with 95% Chance) after 10-14 days of Monitoring & RAB (Rapid
Anti-Body) Testing driven Community Surveillance beyond May-24.
• If the above Testing Targets are met, Projections are of 36773-67305 (70% probability) &
67305-104331 (25% probability) for May-14 and only 5% chance of CCT/infections > 104331
by May-14, and thus not unlocking the country at large by June-Mid (1st / 2nd Week).
• Other key Risk factors, their mitigation strategies and other important Strategic advisories
are listed in the detailed reports (Parts I & II) dated 5th and 25th April

The Game: Currently the model is theoretically a discrete “difference Game theory” with a “n ->
n+1” representing a time-resolution of 1 week. The key problem with Covid19 is that it can have an
incubation period of up to 2 weeks and the current Indian testing protocol of overwhelming majority
of tests directed towards people with inbound/contact history and symptoms. So, a person infected
today can be an asymptomatic spreader for 1-2 weeks and even if symptoms appear, he will be
under observation for nearly 5 more days minimum and test results will come in another two, which
makes the discovery of a confirmed case , making one game cycle 3 weeks and we make
observations/ calculations for results (CCT: Cumulative Confirmed Tests) every 7-10 days intervals in
the model. The efficiency/ negligence of the state machinery and the irrationality/delinquency of the
public in this game have been factored as follows:

Page 1 of 2
Prof. Mohit Sinha -ECE/Physics at BML Munjal University, Gurgaon-122413, INDIA
Email: mohit.sinha@bmu.edu.in , LI: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mohit-sinha-5282037/
dated: 25/04/2020
 Executive Summary

• TLF: Tracking Leakage Fraction (Measure of negligence of the state machinery). It represents
the fraction of people who were supposed to be tracked but leaked out.
• EPDAL: Exposure Per Delinquent Absconder (DA) Lost (Measure of both the delinquency of
DA and the negligence of the state machinery along with the negligence by public in terms of
lack of social distancing).
• EPDAC: Exposure Per Delinquent Absconder (DA) Caught (Measure of both the delinquency
of the public along with the negligence by public in terms of lack of social distancing).
• Test Positivity (TP): defined as the ratio of the number of +ve tests to the total no. of PCR
tests done. There can be Cumulative TP and the Daily TP. Both should be recorded daily.

Part I: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/indian-covid-response-lesson-game-theory-lockdown-must-
mohit-sinha/ .Due to lack of data in March, Only worst case, Boundary Case etc. Analyses, and
probabilistic projections were made for 5th April and 15th April the and results’ report published on
“Linkedin”. Actual CCT numbers (5232, 12370) on both occasions perfectly matched projections, and
fell in the highest probability zones (5100, 10163-12694). As seen in Figure-1, the Key Takeaway is
For example, The highest Red solid-line curve (worst-case) can be brought down to the “dot-dash”
cyan curve which is below the solid-blue curve, which in a way is the Boundary-case for the curves
flattening in May & country opening up by June-Beginning, and beyond which (Red & Magenta
curves) we will run into 1-2M(Million) CCTs by June-end. All “solid line curves” are Static Strategy
(SS) while “dot-dash curves” are Dynamic Strategies (DS) applied on different SS curves.

Figure-1 Figure-2

Part II: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/indian-lock-down-getting-exit-strategy-right-amidst-

challenges-sinha/ . Actual CCT Data from April 7th -25th was incorporated and threat of suboptimal
PCR testing has been quantitatively studied for additional spreading due to the undiscovered cases
(Observed, Real & Ideal CCT curves) and a gentler growth in “Observed CCT curve”, possibly leading
to complacency and a much higher “Real CCT curve”. The measure of good testing numbers, is when
one starts to again get roughly the same (or lesser) Test-Positivity which was got in the first 25K-30K
PCR tests done on the contact-trace of the initial few 100s who carried/spread the foreign virus into
India. Then we derive the required PCR/RAB Tests & projections for Mid-May to unlock by June-Mid.

As seen in Figure-2 above, “Real Data” Lies between “SS-3+DS-1 Observed” & “SS-2+DS-1 Observed”
and later these two DSIs (Dynamic Strategy Interventions) are discussed in detail w.r.t. the Observed
CCT, “Real CCTs with Slow Testing Ramp-up” & the “Ideal CCTs with Fast Testing Ramp-up”, to derive
our key findings and strategic advisories in terms of the PCR and RAB Testing Targets, the Projections
and their probabilities for May14, the mitigation strategies for key risk factors etc. to unlock by June.

Page 2 of 2
Prof. Mohit Sinha -ECE/Physics at BML Munjal University, Gurgaon-122413, INDIA
Email: mohit.sinha@bmu.edu.in , LI: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mohit-sinha-5282037/
dated: 25/04/2020