LGURM-20201027 LGU Risk Classification Metrics Page 1 of 5

Document # Date
LGURM-20201027 29 October 2020
Author(s) / email address

Elvira de Lara-Tuprio/ edelara-tuprio@ateneo.edu

Christian Pulmano/ cpulmano@ateneo.edu
Abby Gabaton/ ggabaton.doh@gmail.com
Affiliation
FASSSTER TECHNICAL NOTES
EDLT & Pulmano – Ateneo de Manila University
Gabaton – Department of Health

Document Title
LGU Risk Classification Metrics

1. ABSTRACT
This document details the rationale for the risk classification of a locality (region, province, ICC-
independent component cities and HUC- highly urbanized cities; the changes made in the metrics
used for such classification and the formulas for calculating these metrics.

2. DISCUSSION

Revised Parameters for Community Quarantine Classification

The IATF classifies areas under different community quarantine status based on their risk
level for transmission and health system capacity. The classification system was updated last
August 27, 2020 through IATF Resolution 66 series of 2020 to allow for predictability in
community quarantine classifications to enable the safe and sustained opening of the economy in
areas with controlled transmission and adequate health system preparedness capacity. The
updated process also shifts towards improving prevention, detection, and isolation initiatives to
control transmission, rather than relying on community quarantine alone. Major changes include:
1. HOSPITAL CARE UTILIZATION AS TRIGGER FOR ESCALATION. In this revised
framework, only LGUs with high hospital care utilization of dedicated COVID19 beds merit
escalation to GCQ, MECQ or ECQ. Areas with increasing case transmission shall be
prioritized for immediate action, but not necessarily an imposition of higher community
quarantine level, since although cases may be rising, the health system is still able to cope
with the demand in cases.
2. PUBLIC HEALTH CAPACITY on PDITR AS BASIS FOR DE-ESCALATION.
Also, LGUs who can show adequate public health capacity to prevent infections, detect
cases, trace contacts, and isolate and quarantine cases and contacts, may apply for a lower
community quarantine classifications, as controls to manage the increased risk of
transmission are in place. Without these public health capacities, communities run the risk of
reverting to higher levels of quarantine and losing all economic gains.
3. INDICATORS USED. Case transmission risk for community quarantine classification is
assessed by the IATF using a measure of the probability that a person will be infected
(average daily attack rate) and a measure of how quickly the number of cases are changing (2
week comparative growth rate). Other measures of transmission such as case doubling time,
reproductive number, positivity rate, case fatality rate, and the epidemic curve are also
routinely monitored to track national performance.
Hard copies of this document are for REFERENCE ONLY and should not be
considered the latest revision beyond the date of printing. Form # LGURM-20201027
LGURM-20201027 LGU Risk Classification Metrics Page 2 of 5

DISSEMINATION:
• With the DOH’s commitment to transparency, all data are available to the public in forms of
datasets and dashboards found at the DOH Tracker
(https://www.doh.gov.ph/covid19tracker).
• The same information is provided to the National Task Force, DOH Regional Offices, and
the IATF on a regular basis and used to prioritize attention to LGUs needing technical
assistance.

3. FORMULAS

This section explains how the numbers in each column of the LGU Risk Classification matrix are
computed.

Active Cases – Number of confirmed positive who are alive and have not recovered from COVID -19 as of
specified date in the given province, city or municipality.

Total Cases – Cumulative number of confirmed positive since the start of the outbreak in the given locality
as of the specified date, including those who have died or have recovered from COVID-19.

CDT (Days) – Case Doubling Time, number of days for the current number of total cases to double, based on
the day of first event or case. See Case Doubling Time page, second panel, to check the CDT number.

R(T) (Provincial) – The time-varying reproduction number, 𝑅𝑡 , obtained using EpiNow as of the specified
date for the given locality. NDA is shown when the number of cases in recent days is low and not sufficient to
run the model. See Time Varying R Number > R(T) EpiNow page for a complete graph and more details,
including technical discussion.

Number And % of Brgys w/ New Cases in Last 14 Days – In the example, , the first
number ( 493) indicates the number of barangays in the locality with new COVID-19 cases in the last 14
days, and the second number (54.96%) indicates the corresponding percentage of all the barangays. The third
number in parenthesis, (292), indicates the number of barangays in the locality that contribute to 80% of new
cases in the last 14 days.

Hard copies of this document are for REFERENCE ONLY and should not be
considered the latest revision beyond the date of printing. Form # LGURM-20201027
LGURM-20201027 LGU Risk Classification Metrics Page 3 of 5
Thus, in this example, close to half of all the barangays in the locality had new cases in the last 2 weeks; 80%
of new cases in the locality are distributed to 292 barangays.

Social Risk – The classification of the LGU as either LOW, MEDIUM or HIGH, based on the following
criteria: poverty rating, unemployment rating and lack of access rating. See Socio-Economic >Social Risk
Rating and Classificaction page for more details.

Economic Risk - The classification of the LGU as either LOW, MEDIUM or HIGH, based on the criteria set
by DTI. See Socio-Economic >Economic Risk Rating page for more details.

Population – The population in the specified locality based on the most recent census (2015).

Average Daily Attack Rate – The number indicates the average daily attack rate over the last 14 days per
100,000 population in a given locality as of specified date. Denoting it by ADAR(100,000; 14 days), the
formula used is as follows:
𝑎𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑛𝑒𝑤 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑑𝑎𝑦 𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑡 14 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠
𝐴𝐷𝐴𝑅(100,000; 14 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠) = × 100,000.
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑙𝑜𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦
For example, the number 3.76 above means that in the specified locality, there were 3.76 new COVID-19
cases per day on the average from October 13 to October 27 per 100,000 population in the locality. The
higher the ADAR value, the higher is the risk of spreading the disease in the community.

No. of Cases Recent 3-4 Weeks – This is the total number of new cases in the locality over a 2-week period
starting from 28 days prior up to 14 days prior to specified date. For example, the number 1718 as of October
27 above means that there were 1718 new cases in the locality from September 30 to October 13.

No. of Cases Recent 1-2 Weeks – This is the total number of new cases in the locality over the last 14 days
up to specified date. For example, the number 1005 as of October 27 above means that there were 1005 new
cases in the locality from October 14 to October 27.

Growth in Cases – This is the difference of the two numbers above:

𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑡ℎ 𝑖𝑛 𝐶𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 = (𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝐶𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 𝑅𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡 1 − 2 𝑊𝑒𝑒𝑘𝑠) − (𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝐶𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 𝑅𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡 3 − 4 𝑊𝑒𝑒𝑘𝑠).
A negative value denotes a decreasing trend, while a positive value denotes an increasing trend in the number
of cases.

Hard copies of this document are for REFERENCE ONLY and should not be
considered the latest revision beyond the date of printing. Form # LGURM-20201027
LGURM-20201027 LGU Risk Classification Metrics Page 4 of 5

2-Week Growth Rate (%) – This is just the growth in cases as a percentage of the (No. of Cases Recent 3-4
Weeks). Denoting it by 2WGR, then it is computed as follows:
𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑡ℎ 𝑖𝑛 𝐶𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠
2𝑊𝐺𝑅 =
(𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝐶𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 𝑅𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡 3 − 4 𝑊𝑒𝑒𝑘𝑠)
More specifically,
(𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝐶𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 𝑅𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡 1 − 2 𝑊𝑒𝑒𝑘𝑠) − (𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝐶𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 𝑅𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡 3 − 4 𝑊𝑒𝑒𝑘𝑠)
2𝑊𝐺𝑅 =
(𝑁𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝐶𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 𝑅𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡 3 − 4 𝑊𝑒𝑒𝑘𝑠)
A positive 2WGR indicates growth of the epidemic in the locality over time, while a negative 2WGR
indicates shrinkage of the epidemic

ADAR/2WGR Classification – This is a provisional risk classification of the LGU as LOW, MODERATE
or HIGH based solely on ADAR(100,000; 14 days) and 2-Week Growth Rate. The following matrix shows
how the risk classification is arrived at.

Note that the final risk classification of an LGU is based on other factors such as actual number of cases,
economic risk and so on.

HCUR (Regional %) – This is the higher between the percent utilization of beds and percent utilization of
mechanical vents in the entire region to which the LGU belongs. Mathematically,
𝐻𝐶𝑈𝑅 = 𝑚𝑎𝑥 ( 𝐻𝐶𝑈𝑅𝐵𝑒𝑑𝑠 , 𝐻𝐶𝑈𝑅𝑀𝑒𝑐ℎ𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 ),
where
𝑛𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝐼𝐶𝑈 𝑏𝑒𝑑𝑠 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑝𝑖𝑒𝑑 + 𝑛𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑖𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑏𝑒𝑑𝑠 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑝𝑖𝑒𝑑
+ 𝑛𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑏𝑒𝑑𝑠 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑝𝑖𝑒𝑑
𝐻𝐶𝑈𝑅𝐵𝑒𝑑𝑠 =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑏𝑒𝑑𝑠

HCUR (Provincial %) – This is calculated using the same formula above but the number of beds is the count
for the province, city or municipality only.

Hard copies of this document are for REFERENCE ONLY and should not be
considered the latest revision beyond the date of printing. Form # LGURM-20201027
LGURM-20201027 LGU Risk Classification Metrics Page 5 of 5

Dedicated Beds – This number pertains to the total number of hospitals beds (ICU, Isolation Beds, Beds for
Ward) dedicated specifically for servicing COVID-19 cases.

Authorized Licensed Beds – This number pertains to the number of hospitals beds in the province, HUC, or
ICC that are licensed to operate.

Hard copies of this document are for REFERENCE ONLY and should not be
considered the latest revision beyond the date of printing. Form # LGURM-20201027