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uncertainties
D. D’Ayala & A. Meslem
University College London, United Kingdom
ABSTRACT: The objective of this work is to examine the sensitivity of fragility functions to variation in pa-
rameters’ values that are related to structural characteristics and the dispersion related to modelling strategies.
For the structural characteristics, the parameters considered are concrete and reinforcement steel strength,
ductility, floor-to-floor story height, and strength of masonry infill panels. For modelling strategies, the dis-
persion due to the incompleteness of numerical models, such as ignoring the contribution of infill walls to the
structural response, is examined. The sensitivity analysis has been based on 3D nonlinear static analysis. The
classes of structures considered are RC buildings designed according to earlier seismic codes, which are in
general, characterized by poor quality of material. The result of sensitivity analysis shows that the considered
structural characteristics-related parameters were found to have a significant effect on the deformation capaci-
ty of the structure, a difference of up-to 100%, for different damage condition level. Regarding the contribu-
tion of masonry infill panels, it has been clearly observed that neglecting the shift in behaviour caused by the
presence of infill leads to inaccuracy in the derivation of fragility curves (large bias in fragility curves). Bare
frame model-based fragility curves trend to underestimate the vulnerability of the structure, comparing with
the result from infilled frame model-based fragility curves. The present study was conducted within the
framework of the research project “Global Vulnerability Estimation Methods” funded by the Global Earth-
quake Model (GEM) foundation.
Figure 2. Sensitivity of the structure response to the variation in structural characteristics-related parameters’ values. (a) Varia-
tion in compressive strength of concrete. (b) Variation in tensile strength of steel. (c) Variation in transverse reinforcement spac-
ing. (d) Variation in storey height. (e) Variation in thickness of infill wall. (f) variation in compressive strength of infill wall.
Table 2. Effect of the variation in the structural characteristics-related parameters’ values on the structure re-
sponse
Parameters Parameters’ values Slight Damage Moderate Damage Near Collapse
CV CV Diff. CV Diff. CV Diff.
Range
[%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%]
Strength of reinforced concrete (fc) 14MPa ~ 20MPa 12.71 4.13 11.11 37.47 197.56 32.28 139.08
Tensile strength of steel (fy) 200MPa ~ 320MPa 16.62 6.24 12.50 9.22 30.80 7.12 22.27
Transverse reinforcement spacing (S) 150mm ~ 250mm 19.76 0.00 0.00 17.01 48.39 13.24 39.50
floor-to-floor Story height (h) 2.5m ~ 3.2m 12.39 19.16 45.09 17.96 42.32 10.59 22.93
Thickness of infill walls (tw) 13cm ~ 19cm 18.75 31.49 66.67 19.85 49.23 16.65 39.68
Compressive strength of infill walls (fw) 1.0MPa ~ 1.5MPa 20.00 44.30 128.57 33.17 102.08 14.90 34.35
very slightly from Slight Damage to Moderate Dam- 4 MODEL COMPLETENESS
age and attains a value of only 9.2%, and then de-
creases to 7% at Near Collapse. Aiming to account for the effect of numerical model
Increased ductility is accounted for by transverse completeness, a comparative analysis is performed
reinforcement spacing, adopting a range of values between the two modeling hypotheses, inclusion of
obtained from literature on structural characteristics infills or simplified bare frame. The variation of re-
assessment in existing buildings (EERI 2000, Inel & sponse of the two modeling options for the same
Ozmen 2006). According to the results, the structur- range of parameters is shown in Figure 3. For the
al response has been found to be moderately affected same structural characteristics configuration, the in-
to the full range of variation in transversal rein- filled frame and bare frame models lead to a remark-
forcement spacing (s=150 to 250mm), as shown in able difference in estimating the response of the
Figure 2c. For a variation of spacing CV = 19.76%, building in terms of deformation capacity as shown
the CV in structural response attained a value of in Figure 3 and Table 3. The computed mean value
18% and 10.6% for Moderate Damage and Near of deformation capacity at Slight Damage level for
Collapse, respectively. At Slight Damage level, no the whole range of variation of all parameters, has
difference was observed in the structural response. been found to be 6 times greater for bare frame
Floor-to-floor story height also shows a moderate models than the one calculated for infilled frame
effect on the seismic performance of the structure models. At Moderate Damage level, the difference
(see Figure 2d). The full range of variation CV = in the structural response between infilled frame and
12.4% leads to comparable difference in roof drift at bare frame structures is 2.2 times greater for bare
different damage condition (CV in deformation ca- frame models than the value for infilled frame mod-
pacity reaches value from 10.6 to 19.2%). els. For Near Collapse, this factor, in terms of mean
The effect of strength and stiffness of infill walls value, is estimated to have a value of 1.8.
was examined in terms of compressive strength and
the thickness of infill walls. The sensitivity analysis
was conducted for values from 13cm to 19cm for
thickness and 1.0MPa to 1.5MPa for compressive
strength of masonry infill walls, as shown in Figures
2e and 2f, respectively. According to the result of
analyses, the two parameters have shown significant
effect on the structural performance, at Slight to
Moderate Damage condition. For a total variation of
the thickness of infill walls, 18.75%, the structural
response has been found to be CV=31.5% at Slight
Damage and decrease to 19.85% at Moderate Dam-
age. For CV=20% in compressive strength of infill
walls, the variation in structural response has been
found to be CV=44.3% at Slight Damage and de-
crease to 33.2% at Moderate Damage. Both parame- Figure 3. Comparison between the use of infilled frame and
ters show a significantly reduced effect on the struc- bare frame models for different structural characteristics con-
tural response at Near Collapse, CV=16.65% due to figuration.
variation of compressive strength and 14.9% due to
variation of thickness of infills, as the contribution Table 3. Sensitivity of structural response to the con-
of infill past the peak capacity is significantly re- tribution of masonry infill panels.
duced. This can be explained by the fact that the Roof Drift
damage in infills in general occurs at an early stage Slight Moderate Near
Damage Damage Collapse
comparing to the RC members (see Figure 1, soften-
Mean CV Mean CV Mean CV
ing branch of the curve); hence, the infills will start [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%]
to have less effect with increasing damage. Infilled Frame 0.08 8.71 0.69 24.88 1.30 20.35
While some authors have argued that uncertainty Bare Frame 0.48 7.54 1.53 5.96 2.29 18.10
and variations in mechanical characteristics might be Factor 6 2.2 1.8
considered not as critical as the uncertainty in the
seismic record (Pasticier et al. 2008), it is evident In order to derive fragility curves, the transfor-
from the results shown above that for low-ductility mation of adaptive pushovers curves, defined in
buildings characterized by poor quality of materials, terms of base shear vs. top displacement, into capac-
workmanship and detailing, structural characteris- ity curves, defined in terms of pseudo spectral accel-
tics-related parameters variation might have a signif- eration (Sa) vs. spectral displacement (Sd), was car-
icant effect on estimating realistic structural re- ried out using the standard approach documented in
sponse. many codes of practice, e.g. ATC-40 (ATC 1996);
HAZUS-MH MR3 (FEMA-NIBS 2003). Fragility 1 K 2 f
curves have been derived by selecting nineteen in- mln S ln S
0
X2 k
2 k 1 X k2
d
d
filled frame models, and nineteen bare frame models X k
(see Figure 3 for the selected models). Assuming a max min
(6)
1 K ln S dX k 2 ln S d0 ln S dX k
lognormal distribution fragility curves are defined as ln S
0
2