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Derivation of analytical fragility functions considering modelling

uncertainties
D. D’Ayala & A. Meslem
University College London, United Kingdom

ABSTRACT: The objective of this work is to examine the sensitivity of fragility functions to variation in pa-
rameters’ values that are related to structural characteristics and the dispersion related to modelling strategies.
For the structural characteristics, the parameters considered are concrete and reinforcement steel strength,
ductility, floor-to-floor story height, and strength of masonry infill panels. For modelling strategies, the dis-
persion due to the incompleteness of numerical models, such as ignoring the contribution of infill walls to the
structural response, is examined. The sensitivity analysis has been based on 3D nonlinear static analysis. The
classes of structures considered are RC buildings designed according to earlier seismic codes, which are in
general, characterized by poor quality of material. The result of sensitivity analysis shows that the considered
structural characteristics-related parameters were found to have a significant effect on the deformation capaci-
ty of the structure, a difference of up-to 100%, for different damage condition level. Regarding the contribu-
tion of masonry infill panels, it has been clearly observed that neglecting the shift in behaviour caused by the
presence of infill leads to inaccuracy in the derivation of fragility curves (large bias in fragility curves). Bare
frame model-based fragility curves trend to underestimate the vulnerability of the structure, comparing with
the result from infilled frame model-based fragility curves. The present study was conducted within the
framework of the research project “Global Vulnerability Estimation Methods” funded by the Global Earth-
quake Model (GEM) foundation.

1 INTRODUCTION In the present paper, the effect of such uncertain-


ties on the derivation of fragility functions were in-
In seismic vulnerability assessment studies, the reli- vestigated by conducting sensitivity analyses con-
ability on any used methodology will depend upon sidering the variation in structural characteristics-
the sophistication of modelling structures, the adopt- related parameters’ values, and the numerical model-
ed materials behaviour, and the simplified assump- ling completeness. The classes of structures consid-
tions that are made to reduce the calculation efforts. ered are low-ductility RC buildings designed accord-
It has been widely observed in literature (e.g. Salva- ing to earlier seismic codes, and which are in general
dor et al. 2008, Khan & Naqvi 2012) that many re- characterized by poor quality of materials, work-
searchers attempted to use default values for struc- manship and detailing. To best identify the expected
tural characteristics-related parameters, provided in mean and range for the various parameter analysed a
existing guidelines/codes and implemented in com- real frame in Turkey, is the reference prototype,
monly used structural programs. Usually, this is due however the methodology and results obtained are
either to lack of information, especially, for the case applicable to other typologies and locations, once
of older structures where design documents are gen- the basic data is available. The sensitivity study is
erally not available, or to expedience. Furthermore, based on 3D nonlinear adaptive pushover analysis.
regarding the numerical modelling extensive litera- The observations of the influence of variability of
ture review has shown that often vulnerability func- the selected parameters are conducted in terms of
tions for infilled RC buildings are generated from deformation capacity, considering different damage
analysis of bare frames structures (Kircil & Polat thresholds. The effect of model completeness is in-
2006, Howary & Mehanny 2011). As a conse- vestigated by performing a comparative analysis of
quence, such assumptions and simplifications may fragility curves derived with and without consider-
highly decrease the reliability and accuracy of the ing the contribution of masonry infill panels.
obtained results due to the increase of epistemic un-
certainty in modelling.
2 PROCEDURE OF ANALYSIS material (i.e. the cover, core, and reinforcing steel)
and their distribution over the cross-section the pro-
2.1 Structural characteristics-related parameters gression of nonlinear phenomena in the concrete
Very few studies have consistently analyzed the ef- member are more accurately simulated and hence
fect of the variability of several structural character- one can capture more accurately response effects on
istics or of the simplified modelling assumptions on such elements. For infill panels, the diagonal strut
the generated fragility curves, with the scope of es- model, which has been the most frequently used by
timating the level of uncertainties that should be tak- researchers and adopted in many documents and
en into account. In the work by Liel & Deierlein guidelines (e.g. ASCE 2006, NZSEE 2006), was im-
(2008), the sensitivity study was conducted by con- plemented in this study.
sidering height and framing system as variable pa-
 0 .4
a  0.175  h 
rameters. In the present study, the investigated struc- r (1)
tural characteristics-related parameters are those  I col  inf
associated to mechanical properties, geometric con-
figuration, and structural details; i.e: compressive 1
strength of concrete, yield strength of reinforcement, E t sin 2  4
strength and stiffness of infill walls (in terms of  m inf 
  (2)
compressive strength and thickness), story height, I  
and transverse reinforcement spacing. The choice of  4 E f I col hinf 
expected mean and standard deviation for each pa-
rameter (see Table 1) is based on the results of struc- Each infill panel is simulated with a pair of com-
tural characteristics assessment (Ay 2008, Bal et al. pression struts, where “a” is the equivalent strut’s
2008), post-earthquakes surveys (EERI 2000, EEFIT width. Note that the buildings were modeled consid-
2003, Ellul 2006), the requirement from different ering 50% of masonry infill walls (Paulay & Priest-
versions of earlier seismic codes, e.g. TS500 (TSE ley 1992).
1985), and other available references (Gulkan et al. With regard to the global threshold damage
2002, Erol et al. 2004, Kappos 2006). states, three global limit states: Slight Damage,
Moderate Damage, and Near Collapse have been es-
Table 1. Expected mean and range of value for the timated from the analysis as a progression of local
structural characteristics-related parameters. damage through several structural elements. This is
Mean Range of done by calculating for each element geometry and
Parameters
Value Value
Strength of reinforced concrete 17 MPa 14~20Mpa
material characteristics, the ultimate concrete com-
Tensile strength of steel 260 MPa 200~320MPa pressive strain (Priestley et al. 1996), considering al-
Transverse reinforcement spacing 200 mm 150~250mm so the limit of curvature corresponding to the condi-
floor-to-floor Story height 2.8 MPa 2.5~3.2m tion of yielding curvature and ultimate curvature, as
Thickness of infill walls 16 cm 13~19cm* indicated in Eurocode-8 (CEN 2004) and FEMA-
Compressive strength of infill walls 1.25 MPa 1.0~1.5MPa*
356 (ASCE 2000).

2.3 Selected models


2.2 Analysis type and numerical modelling
Forty-two 3-D models, infilled frames and bare
The analyses have been based on the implementation frames structures, were analyzed. Detailed infor-
of Adaptive Pushover Analysis, using 3-D structures mation about the models can be found in Meslem &
as numerical models. One of the advantages in using D’Ayala (2013). For the considered structural char-
this type of analysis is that the variation in the struc- acteristics-related parameters, the values were
tural stiffness at different deformation levels, and changed slightly representing the most probable
consequently the system degradation can be better range for the case of existing low-ductility buildings
accounted for. constructed with respect to earlier seismic codes.
With regard to the numerical modelling, fiber- The influence of these variations in the parameters’
based structural modelling, which allows to discre- values has been observed in terms of deformation
tize the cross section of the member to account for capacity for different damage conditions, obtained
the different behaviour of cover and core concrete from adaptive pushover analysis (Fig. 1).
and steel, was adopted to model reinforced concrete
members. By modelling separately the constitutive
sponse, for different damage condition in terms of
roof drift. Table 2 summarizes the level of sensitivi-
ty of the response to the change for each parameter
in terms of Coefficient of Variation (CV), defined as
ratio of standard deviation by mean value, and the
percentage difference (Diff) in deformation capacity
for different damage condition.
The result of sensitivity analysis has shown that
structural characteristics-related parameters are
found to have a significant effect on the structural
Figure 1. Resulted adaptive pushover curves for infilled frame response, for different damage condition. Indeed, at
and bare frame structures. the highest level of damage a remarkable variation
(CV reaches a value up to 38%) in terms of defor-
mation capacity (roof drift) has been observed even
3 EFFECT OF STRUCTURAL for a modest variation in compressive strength of
CHARACTERSITCIS-RELATED concrete (CV = 12.7%), as shown in Figure 2a and
PARAMETERS Table 2; however, no significant difference in struc-
tural response has been found at the lowest level of
To be more consistent with the real behaviour of ex- damage, i.e. Slight Damage.
isting buildings, the effect of structural characteris- For the tensile strength of steel, the effect has
tics-related parameters was examined considering been found to be pretty different comparing to the
the case of infilled frame models. Figure 2 shows the compressive strength (Figure 2b). The effect is al-
influence of the variation in structural characteris- most insignificant. For a CV= 16.1% of tensile
tics-related parameters’ values on the structural re- strength, the CV in deformation capacity increases

(a) (b) (c)

(d) (e) (f)

Figure 2. Sensitivity of the structure response to the variation in structural characteristics-related parameters’ values. (a) Varia-
tion in compressive strength of concrete. (b) Variation in tensile strength of steel. (c) Variation in transverse reinforcement spac-
ing. (d) Variation in storey height. (e) Variation in thickness of infill wall. (f) variation in compressive strength of infill wall.

Table 2. Effect of the variation in the structural characteristics-related parameters’ values on the structure re-
sponse
Parameters Parameters’ values Slight Damage Moderate Damage Near Collapse
CV CV Diff. CV Diff. CV Diff.
Range
[%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%]
Strength of reinforced concrete (fc) 14MPa ~ 20MPa 12.71 4.13 11.11 37.47 197.56 32.28 139.08
Tensile strength of steel (fy) 200MPa ~ 320MPa 16.62 6.24 12.50 9.22 30.80 7.12 22.27
Transverse reinforcement spacing (S) 150mm ~ 250mm 19.76 0.00 0.00 17.01 48.39 13.24 39.50
floor-to-floor Story height (h) 2.5m ~ 3.2m 12.39 19.16 45.09 17.96 42.32 10.59 22.93
Thickness of infill walls (tw) 13cm ~ 19cm 18.75 31.49 66.67 19.85 49.23 16.65 39.68
Compressive strength of infill walls (fw) 1.0MPa ~ 1.5MPa 20.00 44.30 128.57 33.17 102.08 14.90 34.35
very slightly from Slight Damage to Moderate Dam- 4 MODEL COMPLETENESS
age and attains a value of only 9.2%, and then de-
creases to 7% at Near Collapse. Aiming to account for the effect of numerical model
Increased ductility is accounted for by transverse completeness, a comparative analysis is performed
reinforcement spacing, adopting a range of values between the two modeling hypotheses, inclusion of
obtained from literature on structural characteristics infills or simplified bare frame. The variation of re-
assessment in existing buildings (EERI 2000, Inel & sponse of the two modeling options for the same
Ozmen 2006). According to the results, the structur- range of parameters is shown in Figure 3. For the
al response has been found to be moderately affected same structural characteristics configuration, the in-
to the full range of variation in transversal rein- filled frame and bare frame models lead to a remark-
forcement spacing (s=150 to 250mm), as shown in able difference in estimating the response of the
Figure 2c. For a variation of spacing CV = 19.76%, building in terms of deformation capacity as shown
the CV in structural response attained a value of in Figure 3 and Table 3. The computed mean value
18% and 10.6% for Moderate Damage and Near of deformation capacity at Slight Damage level for
Collapse, respectively. At Slight Damage level, no the whole range of variation of all parameters, has
difference was observed in the structural response. been found to be 6 times greater for bare frame
Floor-to-floor story height also shows a moderate models than the one calculated for infilled frame
effect on the seismic performance of the structure models. At Moderate Damage level, the difference
(see Figure 2d). The full range of variation CV = in the structural response between infilled frame and
12.4% leads to comparable difference in roof drift at bare frame structures is 2.2 times greater for bare
different damage condition (CV in deformation ca- frame models than the value for infilled frame mod-
pacity reaches value from 10.6 to 19.2%). els. For Near Collapse, this factor, in terms of mean
The effect of strength and stiffness of infill walls value, is estimated to have a value of 1.8.
was examined in terms of compressive strength and
the thickness of infill walls. The sensitivity analysis
was conducted for values from 13cm to 19cm for
thickness and 1.0MPa to 1.5MPa for compressive
strength of masonry infill walls, as shown in Figures
2e and 2f, respectively. According to the result of
analyses, the two parameters have shown significant
effect on the structural performance, at Slight to
Moderate Damage condition. For a total variation of
the thickness of infill walls, 18.75%, the structural
response has been found to be CV=31.5% at Slight
Damage and decrease to 19.85% at Moderate Dam-
age. For CV=20% in compressive strength of infill
walls, the variation in structural response has been
found to be CV=44.3% at Slight Damage and de-
crease to 33.2% at Moderate Damage. Both parame- Figure 3. Comparison between the use of infilled frame and
ters show a significantly reduced effect on the struc- bare frame models for different structural characteristics con-
tural response at Near Collapse, CV=16.65% due to figuration.
variation of compressive strength and 14.9% due to
variation of thickness of infills, as the contribution Table 3. Sensitivity of structural response to the con-
of infill past the peak capacity is significantly re- tribution of masonry infill panels.
duced. This can be explained by the fact that the Roof Drift
damage in infills in general occurs at an early stage Slight Moderate Near
Damage Damage Collapse
comparing to the RC members (see Figure 1, soften-
Mean CV Mean CV Mean CV
ing branch of the curve); hence, the infills will start [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%]
to have less effect with increasing damage. Infilled Frame 0.08 8.71 0.69 24.88 1.30 20.35
While some authors have argued that uncertainty Bare Frame 0.48 7.54 1.53 5.96 2.29 18.10
and variations in mechanical characteristics might be Factor 6 2.2 1.8
considered not as critical as the uncertainty in the
seismic record (Pasticier et al. 2008), it is evident In order to derive fragility curves, the transfor-
from the results shown above that for low-ductility mation of adaptive pushovers curves, defined in
buildings characterized by poor quality of materials, terms of base shear vs. top displacement, into capac-
workmanship and detailing, structural characteris- ity curves, defined in terms of pseudo spectral accel-
tics-related parameters variation might have a signif- eration (Sa) vs. spectral displacement (Sd), was car-
icant effect on estimating realistic structural re- ried out using the standard approach documented in
sponse. many codes of practice, e.g. ATC-40 (ATC 1996);
HAZUS-MH MR3 (FEMA-NIBS 2003). Fragility 1 K 2 f
curves have been derived by selecting nineteen in- mln S  ln S  
0
 X2 k 
2 k 1 X k2
d
d
filled frame models, and nineteen bare frame models X k
(see Figure 3 for the selected models). Assuming a max min
(6)
1 K ln S dX k  2 ln S d0  ln S dX k
lognormal distribution fragility curves are defined as  ln S  
0
 2

the conditional probability of being in or exceeding,


a particular damage state dsi, given the spectral dis-
d
2 k 1 X k   Xk
max 2
  Xk

placement, Sd: and by assuming lognormality, the median capacity


is extracted as:
 1  S 
Pds  dsi | S d     ln d
 dsi  S d ,dsi



(3) S d  exp mln S   (7)
 d

The standard deviation of the logs (dispersion) is


where, S d ,dsi is the median value of spectral dis- estimated using a first-order derivative of f with re-
placement at which the building reaches the thresh- spect to Xk:
old of damage state dsi ;  ds i is the standard devia- 2
 fK

tion of the natural logarithm of spectral displacement    
2
  X2 k 
k 1  X k 
for damage state dsi ; Φ is the standard normal cu- Xk
(8)
mulative distribution function. 2
 ln S
K X k max
 ln S X k min  2
In this study, the median value S d and the  dis-   d d  X
 X
k 1 
max
 Xk
min  k

persion for every limit state are estimated using the k 


First-Order Second-Moment (FOSM) method, as
suggested by Vamvatsikos & Fragiadakis (2010) and Using the aforementioned procedure, Figure 4
commonly used to estimate the uncertainty (Lee & shows the fragility curves that have been derived for
Mosalam 2005, Baker & Cornell 2008,). For the im- each set of modeling choices, i.e., infilled frame and
plementation of this method, the number of simula- bare frame structures. For each random parameter,
tions required is 2K+1, where K is the number of  Xk has been estimated using uniform distribution.
random variables. For a given limit state, the log of Each fragility curve is defined by a median value of
the median is considered as a function of the random spectral displacement corresponding to the damage
parameters. As four random parameters have been state threshold, and by the dispersion (β) associated
used, this can be written as follows: with that damage state, as shown in Table 4. It is ev-
ident form Figure 4 the role played by the inclusion
ln S d  f  X   f  fc , fy , s , h  (4) or exclusion of the masonry infill in the modelling.
The exclusion of infills’ contribution leads to a sig-
where f is a function of the random variables, and X
( X   fc , fy , s ,h ) is the vector of random modelling
nificant bias in fragility curves. The median capacity
varies by a factor of 5.8, 2.4, and 1.7 for Slight
parameters with mean: Damage, Moderate Damage, and Near Collapse, re-

X   fc ,  fy ,  S ,  h  (5) spectively (Table 4).
Moreover, when masonry infilled RC building are
The random parameters are set equal to their mean modeled as bare frame structure, the resulted fragili-
 X k (where, k = 1,..., 4) to evaluate ln S d0 . The re- ty curves show greater lateral displacement capacity
for all damage levels; whereas, the building is found
main 2K simulations are obtained by considering in to be more vulnerable when the infilled frame model
turn the parameter’ values (Xk   X k ) while all other is used. Indeed, the result of pushover analysis has
variables remain equal to their mean  X j with j≠k, shown that the first-storey mechanism is the most
recurring, and modeling the infills leads to the oc-
max
obtaining ln S dX and ln S dX min . currence of this mechanism for smaller drifts com-
pared to the case of bare frame assumption. The cur-
Using the second derivative of f with respect to
rent modeling, as implemented does not explicitly
Xk, the median-centered is estimated as:
accounts for shear failure in columns. Indeed, shear
column failure might have a significant effect on the
structure performance, especially for structures de-
signed without considering horizontal actions, or
building with low concrete strength.
Note that these different values of β, which have
been used in the derivation of fragility curves in
Figure 4, were computed considering structural ca-
pacity variability (i.e. structural characteristics and
numerical modeling) only, without considering
structural demand variability, i.e. the record-to-
record dispersion in ground motion. In order to ac-
count for record-to-record variability, the dispersion
calculated from the numerical analysis, β, is com-
bined with a value of lognormal distribution disper-
sion of 0.45 (i.e.  Total   2  0.45 2 ) as suggested
in ATC-58 (ATC 2011) in absence of specific data.
Figure 4. Comparisons of fragility curves of the structures with The resulted fragility curves are shown in Figure 5,
and without considering the contribution of masonry infill where, the effect of masonry infill contribution re-
walls. main still remarkable and clearly can be noticed.

Table 4. Median value and dispersion calculated for


each threshold of damage state, and used in Figure 4.
Slight Moderate Near
Damage Damage Collapse
System Medi- Medi- Medi-
an β an β an β
[mm] [mm] [mm]
Infilled Frames 7 0.18 55 0.38 107 0.30
Bare Frames 40 0.15 130 0.11 187 0.26
Factor 5.8 2.4 1.7

With regards to the dispersion, β, to account for


uncertainty in the structural capacity, different val- Figure 5. Comparisons of fragility curves considering disper-
ues are proposed in literature. For instance, Kappos sion in structural characteristics, numerical modeling, and
et al. (2006) constructed fragility curves by assum- .record-to-record dispersion in ground motion.
ing a default value of 0.3 and 0.25 for the uncertain-
ty in the capacity for low and high code buildings,
respectively, for all building types and all damage 5 CONCLUSIONS
states. These values have been suggested by FEMA-
NIBS (2003). Throughout the study by Shahzada et The present study investigate the effect of uncertain-
al. (2011) a same default value of 0.3 was assigned ties on the derivation of fragility functions by con-
for the uncertainty associated with the capacity ducting sensitivity analyses considering the variation
curve of buildings for all damage states, as it is pro- in structural characteristics-related parameters’ val-
posed in Wen et al. (2004). Satter and Liel (2010) ues, and the numerical modelling completeness. It
and Raghunandan et al. (2012) have used a default was clearly observed that special care should be giv-
value of 0.5, which has been suggested based on en when assigning values to represent the structural
previous research work by Liel et al. (2009), to ac- characteristics, especially, material characteristics-
count for uncertainty due to the structural modelling, related values. Concrete and masonry strength-
for Collapse level only. related variation values have shown a significant ef-
The results shown in the previous sections have fect on the building capacity, and this effect increase
clearly shown that the value of dispersion, β, varies with the progress of damage condition for the con-
from one state of damage to the next, and this varia- crete.
tion is neither linear nor monotonic. For buildings The comparison of fragility curves between the
associated to poor structural characteristic, studied in two modelling options, infilled and bare frames has
this work, the value of β is found to be bigger for the shown a remarkable bias, leading to a significant dif-
Moderate Damage for the case of infilled frame ference in predicting the seismic performance of the
model (β = 0.38), while for bare frame the biggest building. Modelling building as bare frame structure
value is found to be at Near Collapse (β = 0.26). On lead to underestimate the risk of damage.
the other hand, β is found to be smaller at the Slight However, some limitations need to be considered
Damage for the two modelling options (β = 0.18 for regarding the outcome of this present study. Indeed,
infilled frame, and 0.15 for bare frame model). difficulty has been encountered to predict shear fail-
ure which is still not fully understood despite much
experimental research and analysis.
For the masonry infills, the two parameters con- Howary, H.A. & Mehanny, S.S.F. 2011. Seismic vulnerability
sidered in the sensitivity analysis are compressive evaluation of RC moment frame buildings in moderate
seismic zones. Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dy-
strength and thickness of infills. However, this ele- namics 40: 215-235.
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tainty, such as, reduced strut width, strain at Engineering Structures 28: 1494-1502.
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