Cement - May 2010

May 19, 2010

YTDFY10 cement dispatches growth (%) April volume grows 9% YoY; declines 7.6% MoM...
In April 2010, all-India cement dispatches (including ACC and Ambuja)
Century tex
reported a growth of 8.9% YoY at 18.13 million tonnes (MT). During
Shree Cem YTDFY10 also, dispatches have grown 8.9% YoY. The northern and
eastern regions have posted YoY growth of 14.4% and 19.1%,
ACC respectively, (adjusted for ACC and Ambuja). The western and
southern regions reported growth of 11.9% YoY and 5.3% YoY,
JK Cem
respectively. The central region reported flat dispatch growth of 0.7%
Grasim YoY.
On an MoM basis, all-India dispatches declined by 7.7%. This was
Ultratech Cem
mainly due to negative growth posted by all regions except the
Industry western region. Central, southern, eastern and northern regions
reported negative growth of 11.6%, 10.3%, 10.6%, and 9.7%,
Madras Cem respectively. The western region reported 4.4% growth in dispatches.
Dalmia Cem The all-India capacity utilisation declined to 82% in April 2010 from
93% in March 2010. On a YoY basis, it was down by 760 bps as the
Ambuja Cem utilisation rate was 89% in April 2009. The central region saw highest
utilisation rate of 97% but it has declined by 1770 bps QoQ. The
India Cem
eastern, western, northern and southern region reported utilisation
Birla Corp rates of 85%, 87%, 83% and 74%, respectively.
Orient Paper and Jaypee reported impressive YoY dispatches growth
Jaypee
of 53% and 51%, respectively, on account of capacity expansion.
Orient Paper Southern region players, India Cement, Dalmia and Madras Cement
had dispatches growth of 17%, 9.6% and 9.2%, respectively. Ambuja
-10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 and UltraTech had dispatches growth of 16% and 7%, respectively,
while Shree Cement reported negative YoY growth of 4.5%.
Outlook
All-India cement prices have declined by Rs 5-15/bag across all regions,
mainly in the north and central region, on account of a slowdown in
Price movement (%) demand and stabilisation of new capacities. The industry added ~48 MT
1M 3M 6M 12M of new capacities in FY10 and ~12 MT in April 2010. We believe cement
ACC -7 -5 18 36 prices will show weakness, going forward, as the capacities added in
Ambuja -11 -2 21 39 FY10 and YTDFY11 will start stabilising in FY11E. We believe that it will
UltraTech -14 -9 26 67 pull down capacity utilisation rates to ~83% in FY11E from the FY10E
Shree Cem -6 1 24 159 rate of 90% as the industry is expected to face capacity surplus of 45 MT
India Cem -14 -7 13 1 and 44 MT in FY11E and FY12E, respectively.
JK Cem -2 -5 52 163
Orient Paper -13 -13 5 68 Exhibit 1: Valuation Summary
Dalmia Cem -10 9 55 132 EPS P/E EV/EBITDA EV/Tonne
JK Lakshmi -5 18 22 76 FY09 FY10E FY11E FY09 FY10E FY11E FY09 FY10E FY11E FY09 FY10E FY11E
ACC 62.5 85.5 60.1 13.8 10.1 14.3 8.7 5.9 8.2 143 121 106
Ambuja 7.4 8.0 9.1 14.5 13.5 11.9 9.1 8.0 6.7 154 148 121
UltraTech 77.4 87.8 60.2 12.3 10.9 15.8 7.6 6.2 9.4 128 113 122
Analyst’s name Shree Cem 165.9 269.3 229.4 12.8 7.9 9.3 8.0 4.5 5.0 181 109 97
Vijay Goel India Cem 17.2 10.6 5.8 6.7 11.0 20.0 4.8 6.3 8.9 90 88 86
vijay.goel@icicisecurities.com JK Cem 21.1 32.0 29.1 8.7 5.7 6.3 6.8 5.0 4.9 98 61 53
Orient Paper 12.0 8.2 9.2 4.7 6.9 6.2 3.9 5.0 3.5 92 63 45
Dalmia Cem 19.6 24.3 22.7 11.5 9.3 9.9 7.1 7.0 6.5 91 65 64
JK Lakshmi 14.6 18.3 12.0 4.5 3.6 5.5 3.6 2.2 3.2 51 42 47
Mangalam 33.5 44.9 35.2 4.8 3.6 4.6 3.1 1.7 2.8 45 34 47
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Note: For ACC and Ambuja, FY10 and FY11 refer to CY10 and CY11.

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Cement Monthly Update – May 2010

Exhibit 2: Cement dispatches of major players

Lakh Tonnes
Company Name Apr-10 Apr-09 YoY (%) Mar-10 MoM (%) YTD FY11 YTD FY10 YoY (%)
ACC 17.9 17.7 1.2 19.4 -7.7 17.9 17.7 1.2
Ambuja Cements 19.0 16.4 15.9 19.2 -0.8 19.0 16.4 15.9
Grasim 16.7 15.8 5.8 18.0 -6.9 16.7 15.8 5.8
UltraTech Cement 16.9 15.8 7.0 17.5 -3.3 16.9 15.8 7.0
Shree Cement 7.5 7.9 -4.5 9.3 -19.3 7.5 7.9 -4.5
India Cement 9.2 7.8 17.0 10.3 -11.2 9.2 7.8 17.0
JK Cement 3.5 3.4 4.5 3.8 -5.7 3.5 3.4 4.5
Madras Cements 6.6 6.1 9.2 7.9 -16.3 6.6 6.1 9.2
Birla Corporation 5.0 3.7 33.4 5.7 -11.9 5.0 3.7 33.4
Century Textiles 6.4 6.8 -5.6 6.9 -6.9 6.4 6.8 -5.6
Jaypee 12.0 7.9 51.3 13.4 -10.5 12.0 7.9 51.3
Orient Paper 3.5 2.3 52.9 3.6 -3.2 3.5 2.3 52.9
Dalmia Cement 3.6 3.3 9.6 3.7 -2.5 3.6 3.3 9.6
Industry (Ex ACC & Ambuja ) 144.5 132.6 9.0 158.9 -9.1 144.5 132.6 9.0
Industry (Including ACC & 181.4 166.5 9.0 196.4 -7.6 181.4 166.5 9.0
Source: CMA, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 3: All-India cement dispatches & YoY growth (%)

220 20
18
200 17.0
16

YoY growth(%)
180 13.1
14
Lakh tonnes

12.8 12.7
160 12
9.9 11.6
10.7 8.6 10
140 8.9
7.3 8.4 8
120 5.7
6
4.9
100 4
Jun-09

Jul-09
Apr-09

Aug-09

Sep-09
May-09

Oct-09

Nov-09

Dec-09

Jan-10

Feb-10

Mar-10

Apr-10

Dispatched(LHS) YoY Growth(RHS)

Source: CMA, ICICIdirect.com Research

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Cement Monthly Update – May 2010

Exhibit 4: Region wise cement capacity, production & dispatches

Lakh Tonnes
Regions Apr-10 Apr-09 YoY (%) Mar-10 MoM (%)
North
Capacity 38.0 30.5 24.3 34.0 11.5
Production 31.7 27.2 16.5 34.7 -8.6
Dispatched 31.0 27.1 14.4 34.3 -9.7
Capacity Utilisation(%) 83.5 89.1 101.9

East
Capacity 22.6 17.5 28.8 22.6 0.0
Production 19.2 16.2 18.6 21.2 -9.6
Dispatched 19.1 16.0 19.1 21.3 -10.6
Capacity Utilisation(%) 85.0 92.2 94.0

South
Capacity 73.8 62.0 19.0 69.8 5.7
Production 54.4 51.0 6.6 57.8 -5.9
Dispatched 52.9 50.2 5.3 59.0 -10.3
Capacity Utilisation(%) 73.7 82.3 82.9

West
Capacity 23.9 20.5 16.4 23.0 3.6
Production 20.7 18.6 10.9 20.0 3.4
Dispatched 21.1 18.8 11.9 20.2 4.4
Capacity Utilisation(%) 86.7 91.0 86.9

Central
Capacity 21.7 19.3 12.4 20.6 5.3
Production 21.1 20.8 1.2 23.6 -11.0
Dispatched 20.4 20.2 0.7 23.0 -11.6
Capacity Utilisation(%) 97.1 107.9 114.8
Source: CMA, ICICIdirect.com Research

Since ACC & Ambuja has not reported region wise dispatches for comparison purpose we have
adjusted last year number by excluding ACC & Ambuja

Dispatches in the northern region grew by 14.4% YoY in April 2010 on the
back of incremental demand from infrastructure activities like
Commonwealth Games projects and Delhi Metro rail projects. However,
the dispatch growth has declined by 9.7% MoM as most of the large infra
projects are in completion stage. Capacity utilisation stood at 83.5% in
April 2010 against 89% in April 2009 and 102% in March 2010.
Dispatches in the eastern region grew by 19.1% YoY. However, they have
declined by 10.6% MoM. The utilisation rate has declined to 85% in April
2010 from 92% in April 2009.
Dispatches in the western region grew 11.9% YoY on the back of demand
from housing projects in Maharashtra. On an MoM basis, dispatches have
grown by 4.4% with capacity utilisation remaining flat at 87% MoM in
March 2010.
Dispatches in the southern region have increased by 5.3% YoY on
account of incremental demand from the government led infrastructure
projects in Andhra Pradesh and housing projects in Tamil Nadu and
Kerala. However, the growth declined by 10.3% MoM and utilisation rate
declined to 74% in April 2010 from 82% in April 2009.
Dispatches in the central region remained flat and grew by 0.7% YoY. On
an MoM basis, it has declined by 11.6% on account of a delay in housing
projects in UP and MP.

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Cement Monthly Update – May 2010

Exhibit 5: Northern region dispatches, wholesale cement prices in Delhi

40.0 245
240

Rs per 50 kg bag
30.0 240

Lakh tonnes
Wholesale prices in Delhi have declined by Rs 4 per 50 kg 234 240
235
bag to Rs 236 in May 2010 from Rs 240 in April 2010. 20.0 232 236
However, the prices are up by Rs 12 per bag from 225 230 230
10.0 224
December 2009 levels 225
0.0 220
Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10

North region dispatches (LHS) Delhi Prices (RHS)

Source: CMIE, CMA, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 6: Southern region dispatches, retail cement prices in Hyderabad

80.0 226 227 250

Rs per 50 kg bag
60.0
Lakh tonnes

For every 50 kg bag, retail prices in Hyderabad have 174 200

195
remained almost flat at Rs 227 per bag in May 2010 as 40.0 167 154
compared to an average price of Rs 226 per bag in April 146 151
150
2010. Prices are up by Rs 76 per bag from December 2009 20.0
levels
0.0 100
Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10

South region dispatches (LHS) Hyderabad Prices (RHS)

Source: CMIE, CMA, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 7: Eastern region dispatches, wholesale cement prices in Kolkata

25.0 300
20.0 290

Rs per 50 kg bag
289 292
Lakh tonnes

For every 50 kg bag, wholesale prices in Kolkata have also 291

remained almost flat at Rs 291 per bag in May 2010 from 15.0 280
270 275
Rs 292 in April 2010. Prices are up by Rs 25 per bag from 10.0 265 272 270
December 2009 levels 266
5.0 260
0.0 250
Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10

East region dispatches (LHS) Kolkata Prices (RHS)

Source: CMIE, CMA, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 8: Western region dispatches and wholesale cement prices in Mumbai

25.0 270
For every 50 kg bag, wholesale prices in Mumbai have also
Rs per 50 kg bag

20.0 260
Lakh tonnes

remained flat at Rs 259 in May 2010. Prices are up by Rs 258 259 259
21 per bag from December 2009 levels 15.0 249 250
238 248
10.0 234 242 240
5.0 230
0.0 220
Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10

West region dispatches (LHS) Mumbai Prices (RHS)

Source: CMIE, CMA, ICICIdirect.com Research

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Cement Monthly Update – May 2010

Exhibit 9: Baltic Dry Index & international coal prices

100

$ per tonne
3700

International coal prices of Richard’s bay coal spot have

increased by 58% YoY to $89 per tonne for the week ended
May 14, 2010. On an MoM basis, it has increased by 4%
The Baltic Dry Index has increased by 54% YoY to 3929 for 1200 50

Sep-09
Apr-09
Apr-09

Jun-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Aug-09

Oct-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
May-09

Dec-09

Feb-10
Jan-10
Jan-10

Mar-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
the week ended May 14, 2010. On an MoM basis, it has
increased by 31%

Baltic Dry Index (LHS) International Coal Prices (RHS)

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 10: Thermal coal prices, spot prices, NCDEX

3500.0
3400.0
3300.0
Thermal coal prices have declined by 11% YoY to Rs 3020 3200.0
Rs per tonne

3100.0
per tonne for the week ended May 15, 2010. However,
3000.0
they have increased by 5% on an MoM basis 2900.0
2800.0
2700.0
2600.0
2500.0
Apr-09

Sep-09

Feb-10

Apr-10
Mar-09

May-09

Jun-09

Jul-09

Aug-09

Oct-09

Nov-09

Dec-09

Jan-10

Mar-10

May-10
NCDEX thermal coal prices

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

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 Cement Monthly Update – May 2010

ICICIdirect.com coverage universe

ACC Sales (Rs Crore) EPS (Rs) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%)
Idirect Code ACC CMP 862 CY08 7,308.6 62.5 13.8 8.7 25.9 32.8
MCap 16200 Target 877 CY09 8,027.2 85.5 10.1 5.9 29.4 37.5
% Upside 2% CY10E 8,100.0 60.1 14.3 8.2 17.9 24.0
CY11E 8,982.0 57.6 15.0 8.0 15.7 21.6

Ambuja Cements Sales (Rs Crore) EPS (Rs) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%)
Idirect Code GUJAMB CMP 108 CY08 6,234.7 7.4 14.5 9.1 21.9 27.7
MCap 16456 Target 104 CY09 7,076.9 8.0 13.5 8.0 20.1 27.1
% Upside -3% CY10E 7,851.4 9.1 11.9 6.7 19.9 26.0
CY11E 8,348.0 8.7 12.3 6.1 16.7 22.3

UltraTech Cements Sales (Rs Crore) EPS (Rs) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%)
Idirect Code ULTCEM CMP 954 FY09 6,383.1 77.4 12.3 7.6 31.0 29.2
MCap 26159 Target 945 FY10E 7,054.8 87.8 10.9 6.2 26.6 28.4
% Upside -1% FY11E 15,961.8 60.2 15.8 9.4 21.6 26.7
FY12E 17,451.6 63.0 15.1 8.7 15.0 20.1

Shree Cement Sales (Rs Crore) EPS (Rs) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%)
Idirect Code SHRCEM CMP 2126 FY09 2,715.0 165.9 12.8 8.0 61.4 33.9
MCap 7407 Target 2450 FY10E 3,623.9 269.3 7.9 4.5 57.1 37.5
% Upside 15% FY11E 4,063.5 229.4 9.3 5.0 32.7 26.3
FY12E 4,691.7 291.9 7.3 4.5 31.1 27.0

India Cements Sales (Rs Crore) EPS (Rs) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%)
Idirect Code INDCEM CMP 116 FY09 3,426.5 17.2 6.7 4.8 17.4 17.0
MCap 3563 Target 118 FY10E 3,771.3 10.6 11.0 6.3 10.4 11.4
% Upside 2% FY11E 4,008.6 5.8 20.0 8.9 5.3 6.4
FY12E 4,613.0 8.8 13.1 6.4 7.6 9.0

JK Cement Sales (Rs Crore) EPS (Rs) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%)
Idirect Code JKCEME CMP 183 FY09 1,496.8 21.1 8.7 6.8 17.7 17.2
MCap 1280 Target 236 FY10E 1,822.9 32.0 5.7 5.0 22.2 18.0
% Upside 29% FY11E 2,348.8 29.1 6.3 4.9 16.9 13.3
FY12E 2,573.4 34.5 5.3 4.0 17.2 15.0
JK Lakshmi Sales (Rs Crore) EPS (Rs) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%)
Idirect Code JKCORP CMP 66 FY09 1,224.7 14.6 4.5 3.6 24.2 16.8
MCap 808 Target 87 FY10E 1,436.7 18.3 3.6 2.2 23.3 21.6
% Upside 32% FY11E 1,437.3 12.0 5.5 3.2 12.6 12.9
FY12E 1,641.6 11.3 5.8 3.4 10.6 10.5

Dalmia Cements Sales (Rs Crore) EPS (Rs) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%)
Idirect Code DALCEM CMP 225 FY09 1,753.0 19.6 11.5 7.1 13.1 12.0
MCap 1819 Target 260 FY10E 2,121.9 24.3 9.3 7.0 14.6 9.5
% Upside 16% FY11E 2,554.0 22.7 9.9 6.5 12.3 9.0
FY12E 3,080.4 39.1 5.8 4.9 18.8 12.0

Orient Paper & Industries Sales (Rs Crore) EPS (Rs) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%)
Idirect Code ORIPAP CMP 57 FY09 1,503.2 12.0 4.7 3.9 41.3 43.1
MCap 1099 Target 64 FY10E 1,616.5 8.2 6.9 5.0 22.5 22.5
% Upside 13% FY11E 1,793.8 9.2 6.2 3.5 21.1 22.4
FY12E 2,020.1 11.2 5.1 2.5 21.5 24.2
Mangalam Cement Sales (Rs Crore) EPS (Rs) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%)
Idirect Code MANCEM CMP 161 FY09 563.7 33.5 4.8 3.1 36.3 36.3
MCap 426 Target 198 FY10E 613.7 44.9 3.6 1.7 34.8 46.5
% Upside 23% FY11E 621.3 35.2 4.6 2.8 21.7 23.5
FY12E 657.7 28.3 5.7 5.4 14.9 12.7

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 Cement Monthly Update – May 2010

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