Global economic conditions update: COVID-19 impact and recovery outlook

GLOBAL ECONOMIC
CONDITIONS
Updated November 2020
Globalization Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Table of Contents
Special Section: COVID-19
Average Daily Percent Change in the Google Mobility Index in 4. Public Finances
Major Advanced Economies Chart 18. General Government Net Lending/Borrowing in Major
Oxford Stringency Index in Major Advanced Economies Advanced Economies
COVID-19 Deaths Per Million in Major Advanced Economies Chart 19. General Government Net Lending/Borrowing in Major
COVID-19 Tests Per Case in Major Advanced Economies Emerging Economies
Chart 20. General Government Gross Debt in Major Advanced
1. Indicators of Real Activity Economies
Chart 1. Global GDP Growth Chart 21. General Government Gross Debt in Major Emerging
Chart 2. OECD Industrial Production Economies
Chart 3. Global Purchasing Managers Index 5. Monetary Policy
Chart 4. Unemployment in Major Advanced Economies Chart 22. Central Bank Policy Rates in Major Advanced
Chart 5. Unemployment in OECD Economies Economies
Chart 6. Volume of World Merchandise Trade Chart 23. Central Bank Policy Rates in Major Emerging
Chart 7. Volume of World Merchandise Trade Economies
Chart 8. Baltic Dry Index Chart 24. Money Supply Growth in Major Advanced Economies
Chart 25. Money Supply Growth in Major Emerging Economies
2. Inflation Indicators
Chart 9. Commodity Prices 6. U.S. External Accounts
Chart 10. Inflation in OECD Economies (CPI) Chart 26. U.S. Terms of Trade
Chart 11. Global Inflation (Headline CPI) Chart 27. U.S. Nominal Trade Balance, Customs Value
Chart 12. Inflation in Major Advanced Economies (Headline CPI) Chart 28. U.S. Current Account Balance
Chart 13. Inflation in Major Emerging Economies (Headline CPI) Chart 29. Nominal Value of the U.S. Dollar
Chart 30. Real Value of the U.S. Dollar
3. Money and Capital Markets
Chart 14. Money Market Spreads 7. Current Analysis
Chart 15. 10-Year Government Bond Yields in Major Advanced Chart 31. Global Current Account Balances
Economies Chart 32. Bond Spreads for Select Euro Area Economies
Chart 16. Stock Market Indexes in Major Advanced Economies
Chart 17. Stock Market Indexes in Major Emerging Economies
Special Section:
COVID-19
7-Day Moving Average of the Google Mobility Index in
Percent
Major Advanced Economies
20
10
-10
-20
-30
-40 U.S.
Euro Area
-50
Japan
-60 U.K.
-70 Canada
-80
February March April May June July August September October
NOTES: Categories from the Google Mobility Index included in the 7-day simple average are retail & recreation, grocery &
pharmacy, transit stations, and workplaces. Data last updated October 13, 2020.
SOURCE: Google Mobility Index, https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Oxford Stringency Index in Major Advanced Economies
100 U.S.
90 Euro Area
80 Japan
70 U.K.
Canada
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
January February March April May June July August September October
SOURCE: Hale, Thomas, Sam Webster, Anna Petherick, Toby Phillips, and Beatriz Kira (2020). Oxford
COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, Blavatnik School of Government. Data use policy: Creative Globalization Institute
Commons Attribution CC BY standard. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
COVID-19 Deaths Per Million in Major Advanced
Economies
800
U.S.
700 Germany
Japan
600
U.K.
500 Canada
400
300
200
100
0
March April May June July August September October
SOURCES: Haver, John Hopkins. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
COVID-19 Tests Per Case in Major Advanced
Economies
250
U.S.
Euro Area
Japan
200
U.K.
Canada
150
100
50
0
March April May June July August September October
NOTES: Data last updated November 12, 2020. COVID-19 tests per case is equal to the 7-day moving average of the
number of tests divided by the number of cases per day.
SOURCE: Our World in Data (OWID). Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Indicators of Real
Activity
Chart 1. Global GDP Growth
Percent, Year/Year
14
10
-2
-6 World (2020 Q3 = -0.8)

Advanced Economies (ex. U.S.) (2020 Q3 = -3.3)
-10 Emerging Economies (2020 Q3 = 1.5)
U.S. (2020 Q3 = -2.91)
-14
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
NOTE: The advanced economies (ex. U.S.) aggregate includes the Euro Area, Japan, the U.K., Canada, Australia, South
Korea, Switzerland and Sweden. The emerging economies aggregate includes China, Brazil, Russia, India, Mexico,
Indonesia, Turkey, Argentina, South Africa and Colombia. The world aggregate includes these countries, which make up
approximately 80 percent of world GDP computed using purchasing power parity (PPP)-adjusted GDP weights.
SOURCES: National Statistical Offices, International Monetary Fund; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Chart 2. OECD Industrial Production
Index, 2005 = 100
120
Last Observation: Aug = 107.1
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
NOTE: Countries included in the industrial production index are all members of the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development, or OECD (Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark,
Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Luxembourg,
Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland,
Turkey, United Kingdom and United States).
SOURCES: OECD; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Chart 3. Global Purchasing Managers Index
Index
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
Manufacturing (Oct = 53.0)
Services (Oct = 52.9)
25
Composite (Oct = 53.3)
20
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
NOTE: This index measures purchasing managers' perspectives of current business conditions. An index value greater
than 50 indicates economic expansion from the previous month, while a value below 50 indicates contraction.
SOURCES: JPMorgan; Bloomberg Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Chart 4. Unemployment in Major Advanced Economies
Percent
16
U.S. (Oct = 6.9)
Euro Area (Sep = 8.3)
14 Japan (Sep = 3.0)
U.K. (Aug = 4.6)
12 Canada (Oct = 8.9)
10
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
NOTE: The chart plots harmonized unemployment data for the U.K.
SOURCES: National Statistical Offices, EUROSTAT; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Chart 5. Unemployment in OECD Economies
Percent
9
Last Observation: Sep = 7.3
8
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Chart 6. Volume of World Merchandise Trade
Index, 2000 = 100
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60 Last Observation: Aug = 178.4
40
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
NOTE: This series includes data from 23 industrialized and 60 emerging market economies and covers approximately 97
percent of total world trade. Trade volume is calculated as the arithmetic average of world export volumes and world import
volumes.
SOURCES: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Chart 7. Volume of World Merchandise Trade
Imports Exports
Index, 2000 = 100
320
280
240
200
160
120
80
World (Aug = 175.5) World (Aug = 181.3)

40
Advanced Economies (Aug = 148.4) Advanced Economies (Aug = 159.0)
Emerging Economies (Aug = 296.3) Emerging Economies (Aug = 245.6)
0
'05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19
NOTE: Import and export series include data from 23 industrialized and 60 emerging market economies and cover
approximately 97 percent of total world trade.
SOURCES: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Chart 8. Baltic Dry Index
Index, 1/4/1985 = 1,000
14,000
Last Observation: Nov 12 = 465
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
NOTE: The Baltic Dry Index is a maritime shipping index that measures charter rates for shipping dry bulk commodities
such as coal, grain and iron ore.
SOURCES: Baltic Exchange; Bloomberg Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Inflation Indicators
Chart 9. Commodity Prices
Index, Jan. 2007 = 100
350 Precious Metals (Nov 12 = 279.5)
Agriculture and Livestock (Nov 12 = 120.7)
Energy (Nov 12 = 67.4)
300 Industrial Metals (Nov 12 = 81.9)
250
200
150
100
50
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
SOURCES: Goldman Sachs; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Chart 10. Inflation in OECD Economies (CPI)
Percent, Year/Year
8
Headline Inflation (Sep = 1.9)
7 Core Inflation (Sep = 0.3)
-1
-2
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
NOTE: The headline consumer price index (CPI) is the broadest measure of price changes consumers face in their day-to-
day living expenses. The core CPI excludes energy and food prices.
Chart 11. Global Inflation (Headline CPI)
Percent, Year/Year
16
World (Sep = 1.9)
14 Advanced Economies (Sep = 0.3)
Emerging Economies (Sep = 3.8)
12
10
-2
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
NOTES: Calculations are based on a representative sample of 40 countries. Aggregated using U.S. trade weights. Forecasts of
Venezuela are used in recent months due to lack of data. Shaded bars indicate global recessions (Grossman, Mack and Martínez-García
(2015): "A Contribution to the Chronology of Turning Points in Global Economic Activity (1980-2012)," Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol.
46, pp. 170-185). Last updated June 2020.
SOURCES: Database of Global Economic Indicators; Haver Analytics. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Chart 12. Inflation in Major Advanced Economies
(Headline CPI)
Percent, Year/Year
6
-2
U.S. (Oct = 1.2)
Euro Area (Oct = -0.3)
-4 Japan (Sep = 0.1)
U.K. (Sep = 0.5)
Canada (Sep = 0.6)
-6
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
SOURCES: National Statistical Offices, European Central Bank; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Chart 13. Inflation in Major Emerging Economies
(Headline CPI)
Percent, Year/Year
20 Brazil (Oct = 4.8)
Russia (Oct = 4.0)
India (Sep = 5.5)
Indonesia (Oct = 1.4)
15 China (Oct = 0.5)
South Africa (Sep = 2.9)
10
-5
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
SOURCES: National Statistical Offices; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Money and Capital
Markets
Chart 14. Money Market Spreads
Basis Points
400
U.S. Dollar (Nov 12 = 17.3)
350 Euro (Nov 12 = -1.7)
Japanese Yen (Nov 12 = -4.1)
300 U.K. Pound Sterling (Nov 12 = 1.3)
250
200
150
100
50
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-50
NOTE: The chart plots the spread, or difference, between 3-month interbank offered rates (Libor for the dollar, yen and pound
sterling; Euribor for the euro) and the overnight index swap rate for each currency.
SOURCES: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Chart 15. 10-Year Government Bond Yields
in Major Advanced Economies
Percent
U.S. (Nov 12 = 0.9)
6 Euro Area (Nov 12 = -0.5)
Japan (Nov 12 = 0.0)
5 U.K. (Nov 11 = 0.5)
Canada (Nov 12 = 0.7)
4
-1
-2
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
SOURCES: Financial Times, Reuters, Bank of Canada; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Chart 16. Stock Market Indexes in Major Advanced
Economies
Index, Jan. 2007 = 100
250 U.S. (Nov 12 = 234)
Euro Area (Nov 12 = 83)
Japan (Nov 13 = 147)
200 U.K. (Nov 12 = 102)
Canada (Nov 12 = 133)
150
100
50
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
NOTE: Stock market indexes are the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index for the U.S, the EURO STOXX 50 Price Index for
the Euro Area, the Nikkei 225 Average Index for Japan, the FTSE 100 Index for the U.K. and the S&P/TSX Composite Index
for Canada.
SOURCES: Financial Times, Wall Street Journal; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Chart 17. Stock Market Indexes in Major Emerging
Economies
Brazil (Nov 12 = 244) Russia (Nov 12 = 69)
Index, Jan. 2007 = 100
India (Nov 13 = 320) Indonesia (Nov 13 = 307)
400 China (Nov 13 = 116) South Africa (Nov 12 = 235)
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
NOTE: Stock market indexes are the Bovespa Index for Brazil, the RTS Index for Russia, the Bombay SENSEX for India, the
Jakarta Composite for Indonesia, the New Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index for China and the Johannesburg
Stock Exchange Top 40 Index for South Africa.
SOURCES: Financial Times, Wall Street Journal; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Public Finances
Chart 18. General Government Net Lending/Borrowing
Percent of GDP
4
-2
-4
-6
-8 U.S. (2019 = -6.3)

Euro Area (2019 = -0.6)
-10 Japan (2019 = -3.3)
U.K. (2019 = -2.2)
-12
Canada (2019 = -0.3)
-14
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
NOTES: Data for 2019 are estimates; data for 2018 are estimates for all except U.K.
SOURCES: International Monetary Fund; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Chart 19a. General Government Net Lending/Borrowing
Brazil (2019 = -6.0) Russia (2019 = 1.9)
Percent of GDP Percent of GDP
0 12
-2 8
-4 4
-6
0
-8
-10 -4
-12 -8
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
India (2019 = -8.2) Indonesia (2019 = -2.2)

0 1
-2
0
-4
-6 -1
-8
-2
-10
-12 -3
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
NOTES: Data for 2019 are estimates; data for Russia in 2018 is an estimate.
Chart 19b. General Government Net Lending/Borrowing
China (2019 = -6.3) South Africa (2019 = -6.3)

1 2
0
-1 0
-2 -2
-3
-4 -4
-5
-6 -6
-7 -8
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
NOTE: Data for 2019 are estimates; data for South Africa in 2018 is an estimate. Globalization Institute
Chart 20. General Government Gross Debt
120 250
100
200
80
150
60
100
40
U.S. (2019 = 106.2)

50
20 Euro Area (2019 = 83.9)
U.K. (2019 = 85.6)
Canada (2019 = 87.5) Japan (2019 = 237.7)
0 0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
NOTES: Data for 2019 are estimates; data for 2018 are estimates for all except U.K.
Chart 21a. General Government Gross Debt
Brazil (2019 = 91.6) Russia (2019 = 16.5)
95 60
90
50
85
80 40
75 30
70 20
65
60 10
55 0
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
India (2019 = 69.0) Indonesia (2019 = 30.3)

85 60
75 40
65 20
55 0
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
NOTES: Data for 2019 are estimates; data for Russia in 2018 is an estimate. Globalization Institute
Chart 21b. General Government Gross Debt
China (2019 = 55.6) South Africa (2019 = 59.9)

55 65
50 60
45 55
40 50
35 45
40
30
35
25 30
20 25
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
NOTES: Data for 2019 are estimates; data for South Africa in 2018 is an estimate. Globalization Institute
Monetary Policy
Chart 22. Central Bank Policy Rates in Major Advanced
Economies
Percent
7 U.S. (Nov 12 = 0.125)
6 Euro Area (Nov 13 = 0.00)

Japan (Nov 13 = -0.10)
5
U.K. (Nov 13 = 0.10)
4 Canada (Nov 13 = 0.25)
-1
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
NOTES: The chart plots the federal funds rate for the U.S., the main refinancing operation rate for the Euro Area, the base
rate for the U.K., the overnight target rate for Canada and the uncollateralized overnight call rate for Japan applied until April
3, 2013, before the main operating policy target changed to expanding the monetary base. On February 16, 2016, the Bank of
Japan (BoJ) adopted negative interest rates applied to excess reserves that financial institutions hold at the BoJ. The Bank
also introduced an interest rate target of around 0 percent for its 10-year government bond yields in September 2016.
SOURCES: National Central Banks; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Chart 23a. Central Bank Policy Rates in Major Emerging
Economies
Brazil Russia
Percent Percent
25
Overnight SELIC Target Rate (Nov 16 = 2.00) 25 Bank of Russia Key Rate (Nov 16 = 4.25)
20 20
15 15
10 10
5 5
0 0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Percent India Percent Indonesia

10 14 Repo Rate (Nov 16 = 4.00)
8 12
10
6 8
4 6
4
2 2
Reverse Repo Rate (Nov 16 = 3.35) Bank of Indonesia Rate (Aug 2016 = 6.50)
0 0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
NOTE: The Reserve Bank of India utilizes the repo rate to inject liquidity into the monetary system and the reverse repo rate
to remove liquidity. On August 19, 2016, the Bank of Indonesia changed its policy rate from the BI rate to the 7-day reverse
repo rate.
Chart 23b. Central Bank Policy Rates in Major Emerging
Economies
China South Africa

Percent
Percent
10 Central Bank Policy Rate (Nov 09 = 3.85)
14
8 12
10
6
8
4 6
4
2
2
1-Year Deposit Rate (Nov 16 = 1.50) Average Repo Rate (Nov 16 = 3.50)
0 0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Chart 24. Money Supply Growth in Major Advanced
Economies
Percent, Year/Year
35 U.S. (Oct = 27.7)
Euro Area (Sep = 9.7)
30 Japan (Oct = 9.0)
U.K. (Sep = 12.3)
25 Canada (Sep = 17.4)
20
15
10
-5
-10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
NOTE: The chart plots MZM in the U.S, M2 in the Euro Area, Japan and Canada and M4 in the U.K.
Chart 25. Money Supply Growth in Major Emerging
Economies
Percent, Year/Year
70 Brazil (Sep = 29.2)
Russia (Sep = 16.1)
60
India (Oct = 16.5)
50 Indonesia (Sep = 12.4)
China (Oct = 10.5)
40 South Africa (Sep = 13.6)
30
20
10
-10
-20
-30
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
NOTE: The chart plots M2 for each country.

U.S. External Accounts
Chart 26. U.S. Terms of Trade
Index, Jan. 1990 = 100

125 Terms of Trade (Sep = 102.5)
Terms of Trade (Excluding Oil) (Sep = 88.8)
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
NOTE: U.S. terms of trade are calculated as the import price index/export price index.
SOURCES: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Chart 27. U.S. Nominal Trade Balance, Customs Value
Bil. U.S. Dollars

0
Last Observation: Sep = -79.4
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
-80
-90
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
NOTE: The chart plots the nominal trade balance in goods.
SOURCES: Census Bureau; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Chart 28. U.S. Current Account Balance
Percent of GDP
0
Last Observation: 2020 Q2 = -3.5
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
NOTE: All values are nominal.
SOURCES: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Chart 29. Nominal Value of the U.S. Dollar
Index, Jan. 2000 = 100
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70 Nominal Exchange Value of the U.S. Dollar (Oct = 110.4)
60 U.S. Dollar vs. Major Currencies (Oct = 93.1)

U.S. Dollar vs. Other Important Trading Partners (Oct = 137.0)
50
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
NOTE: Countries or regions whose currencies are included in the major currencies index are the Euro Area, Canada, Japan,
United Kingdom, Switzerland, Australia and Sweden. Countries included in the other important trading partners index are
Mexico, China, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Brazil, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Israel, Saudi
Arabia, Russia, Argentina, Venezuela, Chile and Colombia. An increase in each index represents an appreciation of the U.S.
dollar and a decrease represents a depreciation.
SOURCES: Federal Reserve Board; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Chart 30. Real Value of the U.S. Dollar
Index, Jan. 2000 = 100

120
110
100
90
80
Real Exchange Value of the U.S. Dollar (Oct = 103.8)
70 U.S.Dollar vs. Major Currencies (Oct = 106.3)
U.S.Dollar vs. Other Important Trading Partners (Oct = 103.2)
60
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
NOTE: Countries or regions whose currencies are included in the major currencies index are the Euro Area, Canada, Japan,
United Kingdom, Switzerland, Australia and Sweden. Countries included in the other important trading partners index are
Mexico, China, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Brazil, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Israel, Saudi
Arabia, Russia, Argentina, Venezuela, Chile and Colombia. An increase in each index represents an appreciation of the U.S.
dollar and a decrease represents a depreciation.
SOURCES: Federal Reserve Board; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Current Analysis
Chart 31. Global Current Account Balances
US
Bil. U.S. Dollars
China
1500
Japan
Others
1000 Oil Exporters
Germany
500
-500
-1000
-1500
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
NOTE: Oil exporting countries are Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United
Arab Emirates and Venezuela. The remaining countries not already listed for which there is data comprise "Others". Striped
columns denote forecasts. Globalization Institute
Chart 32. Bond Spreads for Select Euro Area Economies
Basis Points
4000 Greece (Nov 12 = 154)
Ireland (Nov 12 = 37)
3500 Portugal (Nov 12 = 78)
Spain (Nov 12 = 76)
3000 Italy (Nov 12 = 136)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
NOTE: The chart shows the spread, or difference, in interest rates between 10-year government bonds for various countries
and German 10-year government bonds.
SOURCES: Reuters; Haver Analytics Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

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GLOBAL ECONOMIC

-6 World (2020 Q3 = -0.8)

60 Last Observation: Aug = 178.4

World (Aug = 175.5) World (Aug = 181.3)

-8 U.S. (2019 = -6.3)

India (2019 = -8.2) Indonesia (2019 = -2.2)

Percent of GDP Percent of GDP

China (2019 = -6.3) South Africa (2019 = -6.3)

U.S. (2019 = 106.2)

India (2019 = 69.0) Indonesia (2019 = 30.3)

China (2019 = 55.6) South Africa (2019 = 59.9)

6 Euro Area (Nov 13 = 0.00)

Percent India Percent Indonesia

China South Africa

NOTE: The chart plots M2 for each country.

Index, Jan. 1990 = 100

Bil. U.S. Dollars

NOTE: All values are nominal.

70 Nominal Exchange Value of the U.S. Dollar (Oct = 110.4)

60 U.S. Dollar vs. Major Currencies (Oct = 93.1)

Index, Jan. 2000 = 100

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